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leelaw
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:39 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 46):

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 43):
When considering a 20 year forecast from a senior executive in the freight industry versus a forecast from an "analyst", the number sold to date is utterly irrelevant.

Just one executive? Also, I would think the number sold to date is very relevant. Unless, of course, someone has pointed to a specific year or timeframe and claimed with confidence that that is when the orders will come rolling in. To my recollection, no one (other than those on here at A.Net) has never done that.


Here's a report of David Sutton's (of FedEx) remarks. He anticipates a fleet of 200 380Fs in twenty years; however, he also reckons that many will be conversions from pax aircraft:

http://searcht.netscape.com/ns/boomf...Farchive%2Findex.php%2Ft-1199.html
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
BoomBoom
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:52 am

Quoting Vfw614 (Reply 47):
ROFL. Those "analysts", as you call them, are Airbus employees and nobody on earth would take any of their "analysis" without a grain of salt (the same true of course for Boeing "analysts").

Of course they're Airbus employees, that's the whole point.

While you are correct that Airbus' analysts dropped the ball, I think the Boeing analysts have made some pretty astute calls. Like dropping the Sonic Cruiser in favor of a fuel efficient 787. Like not building an "all new" direct competitor to the A380. Like building a large twin like the 777 to compete with the A340.

No one can doubt that the 777 strategy is a stunning success. 787 sales look very promising. The 748F has the potential to inflict some real pain on the A380F and the 748 pax version may take some sales from the A380 or at least put pricing pressure on them.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
Rj111
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:00 am

I said this on another thread, the A345/6 IMO are makeshift aircrafts. A cheap and easy solution to cover the 773ER size market and make sure Boeing don't win the lot. However, i feel Airbus stretched the A300 x-section so far it's become inefficient. A brand new wider pane would have been a mutch more suitable but a lot more expensive. And they couldn't really build a brand new aircraft and the A380 similtaneously. The advantages of low R&D are cheaper aircraft prices, and this would have looked good at the time when oil prices where lower. But vastly higher oil prices have favoured a more expensive but more efficient planes. So unfortunately the A340NG hasn't really had much success. Maybe it is a "Dinosaur", though i wouldn't blame it solely on having 4 engines, which i feel a lot of people have done.
 
ikramerica
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:04 am

Quoting Atnight (Reply 9):
A320s reportedly prefered by passengers over the B737s, but the A330s are indeed better than any of the B767s...

Let's look at the second part first. The A330 is far newer and more economical to operate for various missions. Many of the 767s have old interiors in comparison and show their age in lack of comfort.

But there is no evidence it is preferred by customers new to new. The 767 as offered in the 2000s (777 interior, PVT, etc.) is a plane that is as friendly to customers as any in the sky. Airlines have soured on the 767 due to cargo handling and age of the design, but that doesn't mean passengers don't like it.

so you must mean it is preferred by airlines, and I would agree that many airlines decided to replace aging 767 fleets with 330s. But not all airlines. Only some. Others bought more 767s. Some, like CO, bought a new fleet of 767s recently and they are happy with them. One would assume that a far superior jet like the A330 would make any 767 orders a poor business decision. Obviously there is more to it.

shifting criteria since you seem to think the A320 value is it's comfort, not economics.

"reportedly preferred" by passengers is vague. what has always been hard to quantify from the 737NG/320 battle is this: Very few airlines fly both the A320 and the 737NG series aircraft. As such, passengers can't compare the two aircraft without also flying different airlines, and it how those airlines deal with pax and appoint the planes that have as much influence on the perception as any. The A320 is definitely roomier by a few inches. But the in flight product means a lot, too.

There is no doubt the A320 is a great plane, but it's superiority over the 737 is hard to quantify because it is heavier and doesn't quite have the same performance in competing models. Customers prefer it is not a solid enough criteria, because customers prefer airlines more. And so many 737NG and 320 carriers are a "one type operation" LCC and they all seem to be doing well, no matter what kind of plane they fly.

In America, B6 flies A320 and people love B6. WN flies 737NG, and people love WN for some reason. F9 chose 320s and people like them, but they are losing money.

As legacies go, NW and UA fly 320s, and they are/were in bankruptcy. CO flies 737NG and people like their product. It's not as cut and dry as what pax prefer. But better seats and AVOD in a DC9, and you might see people prefer those NW jets...

Quoting A350 (Reply 34):
The (non-NG) A340 and A330 are virtually the same airplane, and the A330 sells very well. It's his secret why he calls a well selling type a "dinosaur".

Booo, bad argument. The A330 and A340 are NOT virtually the same airplane. They share a lot of parts, but their missions are different. The A340 had a long-haul mission, heavy lift. The A330 has a medium haul mission, medium lift. The A330 was a 767 competitor, the 340 was a MD11 competitor (and anything Boeing was going to build) when launched.

The A330 has succeeded in it's mission. The A340 had it's most success before the 777 proved itself, than a little flurry of success when the 345/346 came out and the 777 models weren't ready yet.

The A340 as a concept is a dinosaur. The A330 as a concept has long legs, so much so that Airbus and Boeing are improving on that concept with the A350 and 787.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
vfw614
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:07 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 51):
No one can doubt that the 777 strategy is a stunning success. 787 sales look very promising. The 748F has the potential to inflict some real pain on the A380F and the 748 pax version may take some sales from the A380 or at least put pricing pressure on them.

That is the concept of competition. What is the problem here ? Sometimes you win, sometimes you loose. For some customers and their needs, Airbus has the better product on offer, for others Boeing. So far, so good. What do we expect ? If Airbus offers a new product, that Boeing will not endeavour to offer a competing product ? Of course the B748-8 will take away some (IMHO, rather a few) A380-800 sales. OTOH, you could just as well say that the A380 killed Boeing's top of the range product and Boeing just had to come back with something.
 
A319XFW
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:12 am

You know I think people overrate what aircraft they fly in - ok a.netters might know they are flying on a 767 or 330, but when I ask my friends after they've come back from holiday, trips etc and ask them "So what did you fly" they can mostly just say what airline and not the aircraft type.

What matters for passengers is that if it's got PTV, legroom etc and not if it's an A or B. IMHO if you ask people just getting off an aircraft what they just flew in, the majority wouldn't even know.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:14 am

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 52):
And they couldn't really build a brand new aircraft and the A380 similtaneously.

They shouldn't have built the A380 at all. It was a huge mistake--European hubris instead of a sound business decision. Concorde II.

Instead of the A380, they should have done a large twin with a composite fuselage, that they could have scaled up as engine technology advances.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
Rj111
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:21 am

Perhaps. I think the A380 will pay off in the long run, but they could have left it maybe five more years. I wouldn't call it Concorde II though, it's already has many firm orders, and It could still be a big success.
 
astuteman
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:22 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 46):
I seem to recall Airbus' projections in the 2000 timeframe as claiming the 380 would cost around US$8 - US$10 billion. Their own reports these days are placing the cost in the US$12 - US$15 billion range.

I specifically quoted PRODUCTION costs, not DEVELOPMENT costs. Aboulaifa has substantially overstated PRODUCTION costs for A380 in the past.

Aboulaifa (and Gellman) think, and have stated, that Airbus intend to sell EVERY A380 for the next 20 years at a loss to the production cost.
Not biased against Airbus?  Yeah sure

As for development costs, they were quoted as being $10.5Bn in 2000, and are now forecast as $12.7Bn. But they were not my point of contention.
 
JetMaster
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:24 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 56):
They shouldn't have built the A380 at all. It was a huge mistake--European hubris instead of a sound business decision. Concorde II.

Comparing the A380 to Concorde is just ridiculous...have you ever checked Concorde's history?


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
Glom
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 2:50 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 56):
They shouldn't have built the A380 at all. It was a huge mistake--European hubris instead of a sound business decision. Concorde II.

Ooh! That's looking for trouble.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 53):
The A330 was a 767 competitor

Actually, only the 764 really compares to the A332 and comes up short on range (plus of course payload). The 763 and the 762 are smaller. The way it stands is this:








AirbusBoeing
A332764 (hypothetically the 771)
A333772
A342No Boeing competitor but hypothetically the 771ER
A333ER (aka A343)772ER
No Airbus competitor773
A345772LR
A346773ER


So technically, the 777 could have covered the entire A330/340 range, although in reality, there was no competition for the A332 or A342. The former was perhaps a loss to Boeing, the latter no big deal since it never sold well anyway.
 
Rj111
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:04 am

That graph is perfect Glom, i especially like the use of A333ER, because that is what it is.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:19 am

Quoting Vfw614 (Reply 54):
That is the concept of competition. What is the problem here ?

Did I say there was a problem? You said you Those "analysts", as you call them, are Airbus employees and nobody on earth would take any of their "analysis" without a grain of salt (the same true of course for Boeing "analysts"). I simply pointed out that Boeing's analysts have done a pretty good job lately.

Quoting Vfw614 (Reply 54):
OTOH, you could just as well say that the A380 killed Boeing's top of the range product and Boeing just had to come back with something.

You could also say the 777 contributed to this to a far greater degree.

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 59):
Comparing the A380 to Concorde is just ridiculous...have you ever checked Concorde's history?

Udo, let me clarify for you: Concorde like the A380 is a technological marvel but IMHO not a particularly sound business decision.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
GDB
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:23 am

Calling A380 Concorde II is wishful thinking, hurt US pride maybe for those who believe it.
Frankly it shows a large degree of ignorance, or lack of understanding of history.

While we are on history, what is often forgotten (or chosen not to be remembered), is that A330/A340 have a longer history than B777, they are older aircraft, but older than some seem to think.

As the TA9 (basically A330-300) and TA11 (A340), the basic concepts for the aircraft have been around since as long as 1981/82.
B777 emerged after various Studies to dramatically enhance the B767 met with a cool reception from airlines, in the case of a B767 with a double deck rear fuselage, outright derision from BA, who it was offered to, around 1987-88.

So Boeing, wisely, went for a clean sheet, helped by recent advances in engines.

Back to Airbus, we know that A330/A340 were launched in 1987, arguably maybe Airbus should have launched them sooner, but they were busy with A320, and who can argue with the wisdom of going for the narrowbody? (Except Boeing, who made mocking comments when A320 was launched, Leahy is just providing payback for that in recent years).

However, the CFM powered A340 was seen as interim, but the cancellation of the IAE Superfan project in 1987 blew a hole in that.
Despite this, A340 had respectable sales, (what was A340 then BoomBoom, VC10 II, Comet 4 II?)
It helped knock the MD-11 out of the game.
The newer A340 models have extended the production life, kept some customers, gained some new ones.

Right then, can I be an analyst now?
 
JetMaster
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:41 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 62):
Concorde like the A380 is a technological marvel but IMHO not a particularly sound business decision.

How are you able to judge that? The A380 hasn't even entered service yet. Don't you think a much more accurate conclusion should be possible in 10-20 years?


Regards,
JM
The Journey is my Destination
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:49 am

Quoting GDB (Reply 63):
As the TA9 (basically A330-300) and TA11 (A340), the basic concepts for the aircraft have been around since as long as 1981/82.
B777 emerged after various Studies to dramatically enhance the B767 met with a cool reception from airlines, in the case of a B767 with a double deck rear fuselage, outright derision from BA, who it was offered to, around 1987-88.

So Boeing, wisely, went for a clean sheet, helped by recent advances in engines.

Back to Airbus, we know that A330/A340 were launched in 1987

Don't try to use this as an excuse. When the project originally started is completely irrelevant. A project launched in 1987 would use the technology available in 1987. It would not have solely relied on the technology that was available in 1981/2 when the original study started. So, the 777 had three-year advantage in terms of technology. If you think the 777 won the race against the 340 because of that three years of technology advantage, then you're being naive. If that was the sole reason, then Airbus was foolish enough to went first again with the 345/6. Then they will have only themselves to blame.

FWIW, because the 777 was tailored more toward larger capacity and longer distance, that allowed the 330 to maitain a very respectable position in the market. The three-year disadvantage didn't hurt the 330. Just to show how silly for you to bring up the 1981/2 thing.
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 6:10 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 53):
The A330 and A340 are NOT virtually the same airplane. They share a lot of parts, but their missions are different. The A340 had a long-haul mission, heavy lift. The A330 has a medium haul mission, medium lift. The A330 was a 767 competitor, the 340 was a MD11 competitor (and anything Boeing was going to build) when launched.

From a mission point of view you are correct, but they ARE the same planes looking at it from a structural point of view! Not only do they share 'a lot of parts' like you say, (what do you mean by that BTW? Flaps, gear, doors????) it goes further than that! The A330 and A342/3 share virtually EVERYTHING but the engines. Did you know even the wing is exactly the same on both planes?

A few years back, a Sabena A340 had a gear collapse in BRU during touch down and suffered quite some damage because of that (1 engine torn of, tail severely damaged). The Airbus Beluga ferried in a new set of CFM engines and a spare wing part some days later to repair the plane... guess which plane's wing they brought? But it didn't matter...

The A343 has indeed a longer range and is a sort of A333ER if you want.
The reason for this is exactly the same as on any other ER version: EXTRA FUEL. The identical wing of the A330/A340 can hold more fuel in its A340 configuration as the outboard engine compensates the weight of the additional fuel in the larger inboard fuel tanks fitted to the A340 by giving the wing the same bending moment as in its A330 configuration.
 
Glom
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 6:40 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 66):
The A330 and A342/3 share virtually EVERYTHING but the engines.

It's a little more complicated. The A333 gear parts are useable on the A343 but the A343 also needs parts for the centre bogey. But more importantly, here are also significant differences by having 4 engines rather than 2 beyond them simply being different types, hence different pylons. The fuel system, the pneumatics and the electrics are modified to accomodate the 4 engine design. The controls in the cockpit are modified accordingly. This means different type rating and larger differences in maintenance and parts from a regular ER.

The A343 is the A333ER in that it is the high gross weight version of the A333, but going from one to the other is far more involved than going from the 772 to the 772ER.
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 6:49 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 67):
It's a little more complicated.

Don't tell me, I know...

We used to do 4hrs of A330 simulator and than the mechanics came and refitted to cockpit to double all systems for the A340 checkride or vv.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 6:51 am

Quoting GDB (Reply 63):
However, the CFM powered A340 was seen as interim, but the cancellation of the IAE Superfan project in 1987 blew a hole in that.

That doesn't exonerate Airbus for the A340s weakness.

Quoting GDB (Reply 63):
Despite this, A340 had respectable sales,

That was then--what about now?

Quoting JetMaster (Reply 64):
How are you able to judge that? The A380 hasn't even entered service yet. Don't you think a much more accurate conclusion should be possible in 10-20 years?

Certainly. But I'm offering an opinion; not a conclusion.

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 62):
the A380 is a technological marvel but IMHO not a particularly sound business decision.

I base this on the revision of Airbus' A380 sales projection from 1200 down to 700. Boeing says that it is only 450 and Boeings crystal ball has been a little clearer lately. By shooting their wad on the A380 Airbus lacks the resources or money to launch an all new jet to compete with the 777 or 787. Sure they own the VLA market, but that's a small market.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 6:58 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 69):
By shooting their wad on the A380 Airbus lacks the resources or money to launch an all new jet to compete with the 777 or 787

You are apparently not aware of the cash position of EADS do you?

Even after having committed to designing and building the A350, they are still in a position to launch another all new project of the scale of the A380 from their own resources!!!

Money does not seem to be an issue in this.
 
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keesje
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:02 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 3):
This guy Aboulafia (and his sidekick Paul Nisbet) has been rubbishing Airbus for years.

Actually, only for about the past year or two. He seems to be neutral on the 380

Aboulafia was a co-author of a study that discredited the A380. Afterwards it became clear Boeing was a sponsor for that study.  laughing   laughing 

Jooking? No..  Sad
http://www.leeham.net/filelib/050416-shadow.pdf

Don´t know if Boeing is still one of his firms clients..

The man just can´t get anything positive on Airbus over his lips without a big "BUT: " afterwards..

A US reporter out to please the home public can always count on Rich for some usefull comments. Don´t believe it, check yourself:

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ne...fia+Boeing+Airbus&btnG=Search+News

One of the most predictable open books among analists..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
A319XFW
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:05 am

Love the

"there's not going to be much left of Airbus's wide-body offering in five years except the A380."
comment....

He's obviously forgotten the A350....
 
BoomBoom
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:51 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 70):
You are apparently not aware of the cash position of EADS do you?

I've read all the propaganda about how profitable Airbus is. I don't buy it. If they are sooooo profitable then why are they offering an A350 derivative instead of an all new design? Why are they thinking of an A340 Enhanced, instead of an all new design? Why do they still need launch aid?
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
Lumberton
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:17 am

Quoting A319XFW (Reply 72):
Love the "there's not going to be much left of Airbus's wide-body offering in five years except the A380." comment....He's obviously forgotten the A350....

Like him or not, isn't the EIS for the A350 in 4-5 years? However, what about the A330? I agree it's a strange comment....

[Edited 2005-12-05 01:21:33]
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:21 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 73):
I've read all the propaganda about how profitable Airbus is. I don't buy it. If they are sooooo profitable then why are they offering an A350 derivative instead of an all new design? Why are they thinking of an A340 Enhanced, instead of an all new design? Why do they still need launch aid?

You don't need to BELIEVE it, you just have to read the ANNUAL REPORT of EADS.... than you'll actually SEE this is not propaganda.

The 787 is Boeing's answer to the A330, the absolute benchmark in its market segment. The 767 just cant do it no longer and it what's worse, it can't be made to do it eighter (see 767-400). That's why B has to start from scratch.
What's the point for Airbus in starting from scratch if they already know they'll basically end up with a plane which is a A330 look-a-like? They can as well make use of whatever parts and technologies which have not evolved much since its launch...

The A340-600E seems to bring the quad on a par with the 773ER with only a marginal investment, thanks to new engine technology unavailable for the GE90 for many more years, so why would they absolutely want to spend billions to achieve something they might very well achieve with a few hundred million? It might be very exciting to see new planes being rolled out all the time, but no manufacturer designs for us enthousiast, but rather for the airlines, and I am sure they'd appreciate a cheap sollution too, since they are paying in the end...

Do they NEED launch aid?
As a gesture of goodwill, airbus has launched the A350 WITHOUT receiving a single euro of launch aid so far, something which can not be said from the 787 BTW.... However since the bilateral agreement between the US and the EU allows for such aid and the EU governments seem willing to give them aid, Airbus should be mad not to take it during a later stage of the program.

[Edited 2005-12-05 01:23:09]
 
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zeke
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:26 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 73):
Why do they still need launch aid?

Getting slightly off topic, did I hear correctly that the Japanese Goverment is underwiriting the 787 program by 3 billion dollars ?
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
N79969
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:27 am

Quoting Aither (Reply 35):
He's known in the industry as someone being too much influenced by Boeing ideas. Maybe this guy should consider to talk with business people outside the US.

No. That is not his reputation in the industry or elsewhere. That is simply your opinion.

Quoting A350 (Reply 34):
The (non-NG) A340 and A330 are virtually the same airplane, and the A330 sells very well. It's his secret why he calls a well selling type a "dinosaur".

Because two airplane share the same line do not make the same airplane. Strong sales of the A330 do not vindicate the A340.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 71):
Aboulafia was a co-author of a study that discredited the A380. Afterwards it became clear Boeing was a sponsor for that study.

Leave it Keesje to misrepresent facts. Boeing commissioned several people to conduct a study of the A380 which Airbus was supposed to produce but did not for some reason. After it was completed, they kept it confidential for a while and then released it.

Chances are that Boeing (and also Airbus) have commissioned dozens of studies some of which are not favorable and are kept confidential now. The veracity of something is not determined by the conclusion or by wrote it as Keesje suggests.
 
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clickhappy
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:34 am

What is this new technology on (proposed) A346 engines that you say won't be available for "many more years" on the 777?
 
halls120
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:38 am

Quoting A319XFW (Reply 55):
What matters for passengers is that if it's got PTV, legroom etc and not if it's an A or B. IMHO if you ask people just getting off an aircraft what they just flew in, the majority wouldn't even know.

Agree completely. I'd much prefer an A320 with UA economy plus seating over a LH A320.
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
N79969
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:41 am

I repeat my question :has any investment bank (Goldman Sachs, UBS, Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank) or independent industry analyst actually written a positive analysis of any Airbus product besides the A320?

Many of the Euros keep implying that Aboulafia et al are biased and are under the influence of Boeing. If Airbus products are so technically and economically excellent, where are the professional analysts who are supposed provide the markets and investors this information?
 
zvezda
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:42 am

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 52):
I said this on another thread, the A345/6 IMO are makeshift aircrafts. A cheap and easy solution to cover the 773ER size market and make sure Boeing don't win the lot. However, i feel Airbus stretched the A300 x-section so far it's become inefficient. A brand new wider pane would have been a mutch more suitable but a lot more expensive. And they couldn't really build a brand new aircraft and the A380 similtaneously. The advantages of low R&D are cheaper aircraft prices, and this would have looked good at the time when oil prices where lower. But vastly higher oil prices have favoured a more expensive but more efficient planes. So unfortunately the A340NG hasn't really had much success. Maybe it is a "Dinosaur", though i wouldn't blame it solely on having 4 engines, which i feel a lot of people have done.

Very true! The inefficiency of the A340 has far more to do with the length to fuselage height (width is largely irrelevant) ratio and little to do with it having four engines. The problem with having four engines is more about dispatch reliability, not so much about efficiency.

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 62):
Concorde like the A380 is a technological marvel but IMHO not a particularly sound business decision.



Quoting JetMaster (Reply 64):
How are you able to judge that? The A380 hasn't even entered service yet. Don't you think a much more accurate conclusion should be possible in 10-20 years?

Sorry, MasterUdo, I judge the soundness of decisions based on the information available at the time of the decision, not based on hindsight decades later.
 
N79969
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:46 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 75):
The A340-600E seems to bring the quad on a par with the 773ER with only a marginal investment, thanks to new engine technology unavailable for the GE90 for many more years, so why would they absolutely want to spend billions to achieve something they might very well achieve with a few hundred million?

What is the mystery technology?

The key word is "seems." Given the track records of the companies involved, I think the 777 will hold its own and then some in the face of "enhancements."
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:55 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 78):
What is this new technology on (proposed) A346E engines that you say won't be available for "many more years" on the 777?

I suggest you do a search on this topic for a full explanation on this matter.
It has been discussed in depth recently...

In a nutshell: a large part of the significant efficiency increase of the GEnx and Trent1000/1700 engine for both the 787/A350 can be lead back to new state of the art combustion chambers. According to RR these could be retrofitted to similarly sized engines like the Trent 500 of the A340, giving these engines a much lower TSFC, but NOT to the much larger 777 engines because of its huge fan diameter. The new combustion chambers are simply too small to run the turbine needed to make the GE-90 fan spin.
 
halls120
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 10:01 am

[deleting duplicate post]

[Edited 2005-12-05 02:03:05]
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
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clickhappy
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 10:08 am

Sabena - Thanks for the info.

So they will be retrofitting this technology to existing A340's? Impressive.

Will it be enough to make up the 21-22% per seat fuel burn that the 772LR/773ER enjoy over the A345/A346?
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 10:09 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 80):
has any investment bank (Goldman Sachs, UBS, Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank) or independent industry analyst actually written a positive analysis of any Airbus product besides the A320?

I suggest you go to:

http://www.eads.net/web/lang/en/1024...F00000000400004/6/03/31000036.html

and click through on 'investor relations'

you than have a choice of highly interesting things like:

depth and access to funding
financing strategy
credit rating

too much to copy paste it all, just some quotes:

Retain ratings in the single-A category
The leading international rating agencies are Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings.
Standard&Poors: A1A (Outlook stable)
Moody's: A1 (Outlook stable)
Fitch: F1A (Outlook stable)

and the EADs annual results so far....
http://www.eads.net/xml/content/OF00000000400004/7/62/40963627.pdf
 
NAV20
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 10:14 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 71):
A US reporter out to please the home public can always count on Rich for some usefull comments. Don´t believe it, check yourself:

Keesje - if you were asked right now (for publication) about the likely Qantas deal, what would you say yourself? That you're sure Airbus will hit the jackpot?

Looks as if few people actually read the article before sounding off about Aboulafia. In fact, all the comments made are perfectly reasonable; and most of them don't COME from Aboulafia anyway:-

"Next week, Australian airline Qantas is expected to announce its plans to order as many as 100 long-range jets worth more than $15 billion at list prices. Singapore Airlines also is in the market, looking to buy as many as 60 long-range jets.

"Boeing is expected to grab a majority of those orders, and could sweep them all, analysts said.

"I just have this feeling, when it comes to Singapore and Qantas, Boeing is probably going to wind up with the majority of the wins," Leeham Group analyst Scott Hamilton said.

"Both airlines are in the market for midsized, long-range jets, and in those categories, Boeing planes are simply better than Airbus planes, Aboulafia said. "It's the result of a badly flawed product strategy."

"The Airbus A340, which competes with Boeing's 777, is "a legacy dinosaur that didn't go too well," he said. "If it's 777 vs. A340, (Boeing) is pretty well unstoppable."

"Hamilton agreed, saying that high fuel prices make Boeing's twin-engine 777 jets more attractive to airlines than the four-engine A340. "Airbus has a real tough sell with the four-engine airplane," he said.

"The Airbus A350 competes better with Boeing's 787, both analysts agreed, but "on balance, the 787 is the better airplane," Hamilton said. The 787 is lighter, brighter and all new, he said. "Those things count."


In any case, between them, the two analysts were only saying that Boeing are likely to get the lion's share of the Qantas and Singapore orders; that the A340 is having difficulty selling in competition with the Triple Seven; that the 787 is a more innovative design than the A350; and that Airbus needs urgently to revise its midsize product range.

Surely that's no more than most of us on here have been saying recently, anyway?

[Edited 2005-12-05 02:39:01]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 10:21 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 85):
So they will be retrofitting this technology to existing A340's

Who said so? No way. Airbus and RR are reportedly studying to offer the A340-600 with so called Trent 1500 engines, rather than the current Trent 500 engines (the Trent 1500 being the Trent 500 with the Trent1000 power section), but they won't re-engine existing A340s if that's what you mean?

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 85):
Will it be enough to make up the 21-22% per seat fuel burn that the 772LR/773ER enjoy over the A345/A346?

I think the number you've quoted is for the 772LR vs A345. (and even that is on the high side)
For the A346 vs 773ER the figures are around 8 to 9 percent, depending on flight profiles and mission length. RR thinks the Trent1500 alone could pinch of at least 6 percent of this gap and Airbus now look if they can bridge the remaining 2 to 3 remaining percentage points gap by using the Aluminium-Lithium fuselage of the A350 as well as reducing the fuel capacity of the A340-600 (less fuel needed to do the work, because of the lower consumption of the engines). If they can, than expect the A340 to be back in business for at least a few more years, since it would offer a 777 alternative at a much lower price....
 
N79969
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 10:25 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 86):
I suggest you go to:

http://www.eads.net/web/lang/en/1024...F00000000400004/6/03/31000036.html

and click through on 'investor relations'

you than have a choice of highly interesting things like:

depth and access to funding
financing strategy
credit rating

The company itself is not a source of independent analysis like a bank or investment fund.
 
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clickhappy
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 10:34 am

According to RR these could be retrofitted to similarly sized engines like the Trent 500 of the A340

Perhaps I misunderstood your meaning? To me, retro fit means to add something to something that already exists, but maybe you mean to leverage the newer technology to upgrade older technology?
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 10:37 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 89):
The company itself is not a source of independent analysis like a bank or investment fund.

if you don't even want to read links....

The leading international rating agencies are Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings.
Standard&Poors rates at A1A (Outlook stable)
Moody's rates at A1 (Outlook stable)
Fitch rates at F1A (Outlook stable)

Okay, the data comes from the EADS site, but are you seriously suggesting EADS -a publicly traded company- is deliberately falsifying their credit ratings by the 3 main rating agencies as well as their financial report on their main inverstor's site????
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 10:43 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 90):
Perhaps I misunderstood your meaning? To me, retro fit means to add something to something that already exists, but maybe you mean to leverage the newer technology to upgrade older technology?

Indeed, I was not clear there... I should have written :

"....fit...' iso '...retrofit...'

Sorry for the confusion, I didn't mean to make things more complicated than they already are. Time to go to bed now for me!  Smile
 
N79969
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 11:13 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 91):
if you don't even want to read links....

The leading international rating agencies are Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings.
Standard&Poors rates at A1A (Outlook stable)
Moody's rates at A1 (Outlook stable)
Fitch rates at F1A (Outlook stable)

Okay, the data comes from the EADS site, but are you seriously suggesting EADS -a publicly traded company- is deliberately falsifying their credit ratings by the 3 main rating agencies as well as their financial report on their main inverstor's site????

You apparently do not understand my question and also are trying to change the subject. I was not asking about corporate bond ratings nor do I think they are lying about anything.

Financial institutions such as Goldman Sach, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and so on employ thousands of financial experts to provide market analysis to investors. Investors cannot simply rely on statements from corporate management when making decisions.

This thread is about professional analysts saying that the A340 is quickly headed towards obsolesecence. If this is entirely incorrect and wrong, then there should be other analysts, bankers, and others not connected to Airbus saying the opposite. These people have in the past praised the A320-series as it a very good product.

[Edited 2005-12-05 03:20:43]
 
dhefty
Posts: 587
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 12:16 pm

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 75):
As a gesture of goodwill, airbus has launched the A350 WITHOUT receiving a single euro of launch aid so far, something which can not be said from the 787 BTW....

How many times do members of a.net have to remind you that launch aid is defined as direct government loans to a manufacturer?

No Boeing commercial aircraft receives launch aid. Not from any government.

In regard to the A350, it is still too soon to tell whether or not launch aid will in fact be offered and accepted.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 70):
Money does not seem to be an issue in this.

And that is exactly why Boeing believes Airbus should not receive launch aid. It is a market-distorting factor which tilts the playing field in Airbus' favor.

It seems like Airbus boosters want to have it both ways: they crow on about how profitable Airbus/EADS is, and in the very next sentence cry about not having launch aid.

But getting back to the A340E, why pour more money down the drain? As they say, getting rid of turbines is a good thing.
 
Amy
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 12:35 pm

I think calling the A340 a dinosaur is going a bit far. A brand new model being 4-engined would be rather archeic i agree, but the A340 was born in a time when it made sense to make such an aircraft.

Before you all point to the A340E, you know as well as I do that it'll just be an updated A340 as the 747-8 is an updated 744.
A340-300 - slow, but awesome!
 
NAV20
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:56 pm

Dunno, Amy, it's a matter of timing - when the dinosaur was at the height of its powers, calling something a 'dinosaur' would have been a high compliment.  

I've always admired the way so many American communicators can get a concept over in a few (often fairly pungent) words which conjure up a mind-picture, rather than two or three closely-typed paragraphs. The art of the sound-byte, they call it nowadays. That's all Aboulafia and Hamilton were 'guilty' of on this occasion, IMO.

As I said, I would be interested to know what people like Keesje would have said instead, in response to questions on the likely outcome of the Qantas RFP. Perhaps they can provide us with their idea of a 'balanced' comment?

Anyway, to quote an earlier (European) 'master of the soundbyte', one of Napoleon's maxims was, "Never reinforce failure." I reckon that that applies to any suggestion of making over the A340 in present circumstances.

[Edited 2005-12-05 06:11:51]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
lehpron
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 4:13 pm

I thought A380 was a legacy dinosaur. Big grin
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
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keesje
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 6:54 pm

I stumbled over this comments in a Flight International forum :

(an oil & fire addition).


* Its true fuels prices at the moment are favouring the twin concept at face value but in depth evaluation will reveal that four engines at MTOW, with favourable conditions will be almost 4% cheaper per sector than the thirsty GE110B and GE115 B5 turbofans.

** In the long term four engines will prevail especially as new navigation concepts like FANS and Free Flight take shape.Incase of the Free flight,unless there's new regulations, twins will still have to adhere to Etops while Lrops will be fully put through the test and i wonder whether the Airbus sceptics will have the same tone now.

*** To go back to the subject, most of the new B777 orders are based on incentives offered to the airlines by the American money houses..


http://www.bizbuzzmedia.com/blogs/fl...tional/archive/2005/11/24/780.aspx

* Heard that before. Any operations guy/pilot can comment on it?

** The ETOPS discussion seem to drag on for years. No one seems to work anymore on ETOPS 330 at this moment, after the enthousiatic start a few years ago.

*** The Air Canada deal is clear in this respect & the Air India deal high suspect. However CX & EK seem clear wins for Boeing.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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sebolino
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RE: A340 Is A Legacy Dinosaur Analyst Says

Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:20 pm

Quoting N79969 (Reply 93):
Financial institutions such as Goldman Sach, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and so on employ thousands of financial experts to provide market analysis to investors. Investors cannot simply rely on statements from corporate management when making decisions.

You mean the same people who where ALL saying "Buy! Buy! Buy!" before the internet "bubble" Krach in 2000 ? These so-called "experts" ?  Smile

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