Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
Timmytour
Topic Author
Posts: 79
Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2004 8:52 pm

Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:04 am

It strikes me that the potential for something to go desperately wrong here is enormous. For example an aircraft such as a 747 could come into land at somewhere like Heathrow and, instead of landing on the runway, career through a number of other aircraft which were parked at gates ready to either embark or disembark passengers or to be refueled.

God forbid such a thing would ever happen. Surely in this day and age the only reason for it to happen would be terrorism, although what happened in the case of the Helios plane last year was a plane coming down without being under any control.

What would be the potential amount of damage that could arise? For example, how many other aircraft is it likely that a 747 landing at full speed would hit, or impact in any other way, before it lost its momentum.

And is there a limit to how many gates alongside a particular strip are in use at any one time, or would it be possible for several aircraft alongside each other, each to be loading or unloading passengers?

And are they any regulations in place which exist specifically to minimise the extent of damage and casualties arising from such an event?

[Edited 2005-12-05 16:34:56]
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2278
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: Scenario: Airline Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:13 am

Kind of a ghastly thought for a Monday morning.

It's already happened, but on the runway and not colliding with the terminal:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tenerife_disaster
 
Timmytour
Topic Author
Posts: 79
Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2004 8:52 pm

RE: Scenario: Airline Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:21 am

Thanks BigGSFO.

I'm aware of that one but, bad as it was, I'm afraid my ghastly thinking goes beyond it  Smile
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:24 pm

RE: Scenario: Airline Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:32 am

If an entire airline did crash at an airport that indeed would be devastating.  Wink
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
Timmytour
Topic Author
Posts: 79
Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2004 8:52 pm

RE: Scenario: Airline Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:34 am

Good point. Methinks some editing is in order  Smile
 
Desh
Posts: 204
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 10:52 pm

RE: Scenario: Airline Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:34 am

I dub thee "Stephen King of Anet". I cant imagine what would happen after the airport reopens ? Ghost planes parked at gates ? Crew and passengers boarding planes that dont exist ? Night Shyamalan is going to have a ball with that idea  Smile

- sorry just trying to lighten up the discussion - I think this thread would be appropriate around halloween ??
"History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again." - Kurt Vonnegut
 
Timmytour
Topic Author
Posts: 79
Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2004 8:52 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:40 am

Quoting Desh (Reply 5):
I dub thee "Stephen King of Anet". I cant imagine what would happen after the airport reopens ? Ghost planes parked at gates ? Crew and passengers boarding planes that dont exist ? Night Shyamalan is going to have a ball with that idea

- sorry just trying to lighten up the discussion - I think this thread would be appropriate around halloween ??

They laughed at me five years ago when I wondered what would happen if two planes were flown into the towers of the World Trade Center in New York..*

Be afraid, be very afraid!!!!!

*not really......they were quite scared actually  Smile
 
Desh
Posts: 204
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 10:52 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 3:50 am

Quoting Timmytour (Reply 6):
They laughed at me five years ago when I wondered what would happen if two planes were flown into the towers of the World Trade Center in New York..*

any predictions on who will win the world series next year ?  Smile
"History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again." - Kurt Vonnegut
 
ACDC8
Posts: 7909
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:56 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 5:47 am

The chances of an airliner crashing into an airport/parked airplanes is next to nil. As far as terrorism is concerned, what would it bring? Fear? They already have that. For them to take over an airliner as they did on 9/11 will be very unlikely. Not because of the silly rules the TSA has made, but because we understand what the intentions may be and will fight back. Having said that, the plane may crash under our control, but by the time all this drama has happened, the aircraft would still be a ways out from an airport. So this scenario is pretty well impossible. (too many variables) Not only that, but the WTC attack was a sign of strength for the terrorists. It was more a visual sign bringing down the 2 towers that stood for the free world then it was for killing so many people.

As far as the pilots being unconscious such as in the Helios incident, the aircraft would have to be established on final approach before both pilots became unconscious and the aircraft would have to go of course some how. Again, pretty well impossible. (too many variables)

The only way that this would happen is a complete fluke of circumstance or pilots suicide.

[Edited 2005-12-05 21:53:39]

[Edited 2005-12-05 22:17:20]
A Grumpy German Is A Sauerkraut
 
GDB
Posts: 14089
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 5:56 am

Already happened, at LHR in 1968 I think.

A BEA Elizabethan, (old piston high wing type, by then used for cargo), ploughed into parked BEA Tridents, at least one was written off, (tail section decapitated).

I'm sketchy on details, but I think it was a close run thing it also didn't plough into a terminal.
 
by188b
Posts: 561
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2003 10:46 am

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 6:18 am

next flights : LHR-SOF BA, SOF-DOH-KAT QR, KAT-HKG KA, HKG-LHR VS, LHR-ATH-LHR BA, LHR-CDG-LHR AF, LHR-MAD-LHR IB/BA
 
ACDC8
Posts: 7909
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:56 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 6:22 am

Quoting BY188B (Reply 10):
and happened in China in 1990 http://www.airdisaster.com/cgi-bin/v...lines

The aircraft that were hit were in a holding area waiting for take off and not parked at the terminal. If we throw that possibility into the equation, then the chance of two airplanes colliding at an airport are much greater. But the thread starter was asking what the possibilities of an aircraft hitting the terminal or parked aircraft at the gates were.
A Grumpy German Is A Sauerkraut
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15592
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 6:23 am

Didn't a landing a/c hit another a/c on the runway at LAX, then went careening into a building, killing/injuring a number of people? There are also 'crash' landings, that could lead an a/c to crash into parked a/c's. You had the crash landing of a Fed Ex DC-10/MD-11 at EWR a few years ago that finally stopped not too far from other a/c. Taxing a/c are also a problem, as in Sept. 2001 at MPX (Milian/Malpensa?) under fog, an a/c ran into another (SAS?) causing deaths/serious injuries.
 
backfire
Posts: 3467
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2006 8:01 am

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 6:28 am

Quoting ACDC8 (Reply 8):
The only way that this would happen is a complete fluke of circumstance or pilots suicide

Air Botswana lost its entire ATR fleet to a suicidal pilot in 1999, after he took off from Gabarone Airport and launched a kamikaze attack on the other parked aircraft.
 
ACDC8
Posts: 7909
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:56 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 6:44 am

Quoting Backfire (Reply 13):
Air Botswana lost its entire ATR fleet to a suicidal pilot in 1999, after he took off from Gabarone Airport and launched a kamikaze attack on the other parked aircraft

That's why I mentioned the pilot suicide part. But he basically hijacked the aircraft, took off (with no one but himself on board) and crashed into the parked (empty) aircraft.

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 12):
Didn't a landing a/c hit another a/c on the runway at LAX, then went careening into a building, killing/injuring a number of people? There are also 'crash' landings, that could lead an a/c to crash into parked a/c's. You had the crash landing of a Fed Ex DC-10/MD-11 at EWR a few years ago that finally stopped not too far from other a/c. Taxing a/c are also a problem, as in Sept. 2001 at MPX (Milian/Malpensa?) under fog, an a/c ran into another (SAS?) causing deaths/serious injuries.

That's why most runways are kept at a fair distance from the terminal buildings and most gates.
A Grumpy German Is A Sauerkraut
 
IAH744
Posts: 127
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2005 11:09 am

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 6:49 am

Yes its preety scary to think about it, but after 9/11 you start to wonder...
Deliver Everyones Luggage To Atlanta
 
ACDC8
Posts: 7909
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:56 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 6:59 am

Quoting IAH744 (Reply 15):
Yes its preety scary to think about it, but after 9/11 you start to wonder...

Why?
A Grumpy German Is A Sauerkraut
 
trident3
Posts: 992
Joined: Sun Jun 17, 2001 7:10 am

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:01 am

Quoting GDB (Reply 9):
A BEA Elizabethan, (old piston high wing type, by then used for cargo), ploughed into parked BEA Tridents, at least one was written off, (tail section decapitated).

Strangely enough the Trident in question was not written off .G-ARPI had its tail section knocked clean off, but it was repaired and returned to service.On 18th June 1972 the plane took of for Brussels, stalled shortly after takeoff and crashed into a field near Heathrow, the infamous Staines air crash.
"We are the warrior race-Tough men in the toughest sport." Brian Noble, Head Coach, Great Britain Rugby League.
 
CPH757
Posts: 652
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:40 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:03 am

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 12):
as in Sept. 2001 at MPX (Milian/Malpensa?) under fog, an a/c ran into another (SAS?) causing deaths/serious injuries.

It was at LIN, not MXP.

The SAS MD-87 collided with a cessna and hit a cargo terminal. Everyone on board was killed. I guess this sad accident could have been even sadder if the aircraft had hit another aircraft at a passenger terminal and not just the a cargo/bagge terminal, which partially collapsed.

So i guess that the scenario in the thread starter is realistic, at least involving a smaller amount of aircrafts.
Last flight: SAW-CPH on H9 on 02/11/09 - Next Flights: 23/12/09 CPH-AAL on QI, 30/12/09 CPH-LHR on SK, 19/01/10 CPH-CDG-
 
GDB
Posts: 14089
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:03 am

Thanks Trident3, never knew it was Papa India.
 
petertenthije
Posts: 4111
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2001 10:00 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:19 am

Did someone not try to highjack a Fedex DC10 with the intent of crashing it into the Fedex freight terminal and HQ? Fortunately the pilots managed to prevent the attempt, but it was a very close call.
The first thing to remember is always treat your kite like you treat your woman.
Get inside her five times a day and take her to heaven and back!
Lord Flashheart, 1989
 
OPNLguy
Posts: 11191
Joined: Tue Jun 15, 1999 11:29 am

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 8:14 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 1):
Kind of a ghastly thought for a Monday morning.

Kind of a ghastly thought for any morning, and I'm wondering why it merits any discussion at all.

I would think that someone in "aviation reinsurance" would have an imagination sufficiently creative enough to internally conjure up some scenarios in this post 9/11 world of ours without starting a thread on it.

Just my 2 cents/pence worth...
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
MakeMinesLAX
Posts: 482
Joined: Thu Dec 18, 2003 4:22 am

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 10:49 am

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 12):
Didn't a landing a/c hit another a/c on the runway at LAX, then went careening into a building, killing/injuring a number of people?

Yes, A USAir 737 landed on top of a Skywest Metroliner. Report follows:

http://www.airdisaster.com/cgi-bin/v...ate=02021991®=N388US&airline=USAir
 
jcavinato
Posts: 392
Joined: Sun Jan 02, 2005 9:14 am

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 11:57 am

Not sure when it happened, but an Air India 747 almost landed on the roadway paralleling the most northern east west LHR runway. I understand it was at night.

Before 9-11 I was able to ride jumpseats into LHR (some at night), and that roadway does look like a lit up runway to the untrained eye.
 
StuckInCA
Posts: 1658
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:55 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:19 pm

I think there are substantially more serious things to worry about in the world. Some of them may even involve aviation.

I hear there are great antidepressants available these days  Smile
 
EK345
Posts: 126
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2003 5:12 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 1:19 pm

I recall an incident at Indira Gandhi International Airport in Delhi, India a few years ago. I believe a 737-200 was performing touch-and-go's when one of the engines flamed out as the pilots spooled up after landing, causing a loss of directional control. The plane hit a Russian aircraft parked at the gate. Both aircraft were destroyed, however fortunately the aircraft narrowly missed the main terminal building by a few feet.

Perhaps someone else can elaborate on this incident as I was very young at the time.

EK345
"and miles to go before I sleep..."
 
wdleiser
Posts: 865
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2004 9:32 am

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 1:30 pm

What if something happened on take off at Frankfurt, when you depart from the cargo end heading towards T2.... and your Left engine goes out while you are lifting off and it causes your plane to yaw to the left and into the terminal. I mean The Runways at EDDF are fairly close to the terminal, let alone the parked planes.

I would never hope for such an event. But it is very possible if conditions were right.
 
viscount630
Posts: 171
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:52 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:25 pm

Quoting GDB (Reply 9):
A BEA Elizabethan, (old piston high wing type, by then used for cargo), ploughed into parked BEA Tridents, at least one was written off, (tail section decapitated).

The Elizabethan, G-AMAD, (or Ambassador to give it's correct name, "Elizabethan" being a fleet name given to the type by BEA) was actually EX-BEA and, by then operated by BKS Air Transport. On a bloodstock charter, the aircraft was carrying several race-horses and their grooms when it crashed, killing nearly everyone on board. A couple of the grooms survived with serious injuries, I think. A number of others on the ground, both in the several aircraft it struck and in the Terminal One building site where the main Ambasador wreckage came to a halt, were injured (as well as the two Tridents damaged,a Viscount and a Vanguard also recieved minor damage from debris).
RIP Dan-Air. Where the Secret was SERVICE.
 
jumpseatflyer
Posts: 155
Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:13 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:42 pm

Quoting Petertenthije (Reply 20):
Did someone not try to highjack a Fedex DC10 with the intent of crashing it into the Fedex freight terminal and HQ? Fortunately the pilots managed to prevent the attempt, but it was a very close call.

April 7, 1994... and don't ask me how I know that.
 
jumpseatflyer
Posts: 155
Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:13 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:44 pm

And now that you got me on the thought, it was a bitter ex-employee armed with a spear gun. People these days...
 
irishpower
Posts: 412
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 2:18 am

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:55 pm

Quoting BY188B (Reply 10):
Please support our sponsor that helps make this site possible: Ad info

Isn't there video of that somewhere? I recall seeing that on the news!!!
 
TinkerBelle
Posts: 1436
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:46 am

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 3:18 pm

Quoting Timmytour (Thread starter):
And is there a limit to how many gates alongside a particular strip are in use at any one time,

Evidently not per this pic....

https://www.airliners.net/open.file?i...nr=5&prev_id=970808&next_id=970634
If you are going through hell, keep going.
 
petertenthije
Posts: 4111
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2001 10:00 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 3:28 pm

Quoting Jumpseatflyer (Reply 28):
Quoting Petertenthije (Reply 20):
Did someone not try to highjack a Fedex DC10 with the intent of crashing it into the Fedex freight terminal and HQ? Fortunately the pilots managed to prevent the attempt, but it was a very close call.

April 7, 1994... and don't ask me how I know that.

Wasn't it a jumpseatflyer that tried to commit the highjacking? You would not happen to be....?

You googled it, let's just keep it at that.  Wink
The first thing to remember is always treat your kite like you treat your woman.
Get inside her five times a day and take her to heaven and back!
Lord Flashheart, 1989
 
nosedive
Posts: 2176
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 2:18 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 3:49 pm

Quoting Jumpseatflyer (Reply 28):
Quoting Petertenthije (Reply 20):
Did someone not try to highjack a Fedex DC10 with the intent of crashing it into the Fedex freight terminal and HQ? Fortunately the pilots managed to prevent the attempt, but it was a very close call.

April 7, 1994... and don't ask me how I know that.

A little more on this subject
 
jumpseatflyer
Posts: 155
Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:13 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 3:58 pm

Quoting Petertenthije (Reply 32):
You googled it, let's just keep it at that.

When I originally read about it 3 years ago, I'm sure I Googled it at some point. After all, there's nothing I haven't Googled. Except all this schoolwork research garbage...  Smile
 
airfrancejfk
Posts: 460
Joined: Sun Jan 13, 2002 1:05 am

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 4:51 pm

There was an incident not too long ago, involving an Air Botswana turboprop (ATR-42 or 72 I believe). Apparently, the pilot tried to commit suicide or had some form of gripe with the airline so he crashed the aircraft into a whole bunch of other Air Botswana planes at Gabarone Airport. I think it almost wipied out the entire fleet.
 
drinkstrolley
Posts: 484
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:50 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 6:35 pm

Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 21):
Kind of a ghastly thought for any morning, and I'm wondering why it merits any discussion at all.

I would think that someone in "aviation reinsurance" would have an imagination sufficiently creative enough to internally conjure up some scenarios in this post 9/11 world of ours without starting a thread on it.

Just my 2 cents/pence worth...

Well put.

Stupid question based around "what if". What if there were eight 747's stacked for a 27R approach at LHR and they all blew up at the same time and crashed into central London - would many die do you think?? What limitations are in place for such a eventuality? Get a life.............. banghead 
 
Ryanair!!!
Posts: 4127
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2002 8:55 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 6:45 pm

China Airlines has the distinction of crashing 2 A300-600s in the airports of Nagoya and Taipei in 1996 and 1998 respectively.

Both aircraft were lost under similar circumstances, stalling during final stages of approach. It was accompanied before that by some wild civil airliner aerobatics never before attempted by a plane with a full load of passengers on a scheduled flight...
Welcome to my starry one world alliance, a team in the sky!
 
flyguy595
Posts: 52
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2005 3:47 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 9:58 pm

First Post

wasn't the Worst Aviation Accident in History involving Only two 747 in the Canary Islands??? I think If a large death toll was the intent it wouldn't be very hard to do crashing an airliner on final into a line of airliners waiting to take off. I think that's not the intent of most terrorists because an airplane isn't a rather significant target as far as representing anything is concerned.

Think about it American Airlines and United Airlines were used in 9/11 for the World Trade Towers they all have a freedom thing going on for them not just a coincidence.
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 10:35 pm

Resisted contributing to this thread for some time.  Smile

But it's a matter of 'building density'. Airports probably have fewer buildings per square mile/kilometre than any other land use. So, if you're going to have a crash, crashing on an airport, even if you happen to hit some buildings, will probably cause fewer deaths than crashing on any other part of a given city (including, especially, the suburbs that usually adjoin airports).

Sadly, that logical principle has probably just been proven in real life. In Tehran.......
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Timmytour
Topic Author
Posts: 79
Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2004 8:52 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 10:52 pm

Quoting Drinkstrolley (Reply 36):
Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 21):
Kind of a ghastly thought for any morning, and I'm wondering why it merits any discussion at all.

I would think that someone in "aviation reinsurance" would have an imagination sufficiently creative enough to internally conjure up some scenarios in this post 9/11 world of ours without starting a thread on it.

Just my 2 cents/pence worth...

Well put.

Stupid question based around "what if". What if there were eight 747's stacked for a 27R approach at LHR and they all blew up at the same time and crashed into central London - would many die do you think?? What limitations are in place for such a eventuality? Get a life..............

I'll agree that this sounds improbable, but the key is that it's not impossible. The case of eight 747's going at the same time revolves around eight simultaneous incidents and is hard to foresee.

However I'm referring to ONE incident that subsequently causes huge damage.

Improbable as it sounds it is not something that any company running the risk of ultimately paying for all the damage wants to undertake without some perspective of what they could be in for. It's not the "aviation professionals" who usually want to know this, it's the big cheese at the head of the type of companies who ultimately bear these risks. And it's because those companies are willing to take on that risk that aircraft are able to fly at all!

So it's not an unreasonable question of them to ask. But if the disaster is envisaged, a touch of realism needs to be wedded to it. Where my post comes in is that I think simply assuming such an incident would take out all the planes in a row and that they all have passengers on board is not "realistic". Above someone posted a link to a picture full of parked aircraft. I wondered whether folks thought it was possible for an aircraft landing to destroy all those aircraft or whether the point of first contact would take away enough momentum to limit the destruction to two, three or maybe four of those aircraft. In addition I wondered whether it was practical to assume passenger would be on board all those aircraft.
 
LO231
Posts: 2227
Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2004 5:55 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Tue Dec 06, 2005 11:03 pm

Quoting Desh (Reply 7):
Quoting Timmytour (Reply 6):
They laughed at me five years ago when I wondered what would happen if two planes were flown into the towers of the World Trade Center in New York..*

any predictions on who will win the world series next year ?

Do you have this weekend LOTTO numbers? I'd quit my job.....
Got both LO 788 frames already, next LO E95 and 734 BRU-WAW-BRU
 
ACDC8
Posts: 7909
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:56 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Wed Dec 07, 2005 4:24 am

Quoting Timmytour (Reply 40):
I'll agree that this sounds improbable, but the key is that it's not impossible. The case of eight 747's going at the same time revolves around eight simultaneous incidents and is hard to foresee.

However I'm referring to ONE incident that subsequently causes huge damage

The scenario that you have given at the beginning of this thread ....

Quoting Timmytour (Thread starter):
For example an aircraft such as a 747 could come into land at somewhere like Heathrow and, instead of landing on the runway, career through a number of other aircraft which were parked at gates ready to either embark or disembark passengers or to be refueled.

.... is very unlikely. Most of the examples that some members have given have been aircraft colliding with each other due to runway incursions or while holding on the side of the runway which are very different scenarios in all aspects.
A Grumpy German Is A Sauerkraut
 
drinkstrolley
Posts: 484
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:50 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Wed Dec 07, 2005 5:03 am

Quoting Timmytour (Reply 40):
However I'm referring to ONE incident that subsequently causes huge damage.

Bollocks, if 8 747s did explode at the same time it would be classified as one incident - like the tube bombings. Typical bloody insurance clerk trying to split hairs.............
 
petertenthije
Posts: 4111
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2001 10:00 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Wed Dec 07, 2005 5:03 am

Somewhat related, the AF concorde came within metres of colliding with a AF 747 that was holding short of the runway. That 747 is also where the (in)famous photos where taken of the concorde with fire trail.
The first thing to remember is always treat your kite like you treat your woman.
Get inside her five times a day and take her to heaven and back!
Lord Flashheart, 1989
 
drinkstrolley
Posts: 484
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:50 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Wed Dec 07, 2005 5:13 am

Quoting Timmytour (Thread starter):
It strikes me that the potential for something to go desperately wrong here is enormous.

Btw, why does it "strike you"? Do you not think that there a shed load of people infinately more intelligent than you who would have sat down and worked this out? Airlines, BAA, The Civil Aviation Authority etc. Exactly, in your vast experience of airport risk assesment, why do you believe the risk is "enormous"?

E.g A lunatic gets on board a jet with explosives in his boot and tries to blow the plane up mid flight between Paris and Miami, so what happens? We now have to let the security man look at our shoes. Another, terrorists slam assorted aircraft into the trade centre, what happens? Four hours getting through security now.

Therefore, if there is a threat measures are taken to counter it. So what "major" incident of recent times would indicate that a jet is going to plough into a load of parked aircraft and kill 20 million people and would warrant a change in procedure? Or do you think they should make a runway on Dartmoor away from everyone and everything and just bus the pax up to LHR just to be on the safe side?
 
Timmytour
Topic Author
Posts: 79
Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2004 8:52 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Fri Dec 09, 2005 1:53 am

Quoting Drinkstrolley (Reply 45):

Drinkstrolley

I'm not at all advocating a change in procedure. I simply wondered whether there were current procedures in place that either related to a "risk reduction" basis or were there for some completely unrelated reason. Believe me, I am not a fan of rules being imposed for the purpose of reducing a risk of smething from 1 in 10 million to 1 in 10.5 million I can assure you.  Smile

I do not believe the risk is "enormous". I realise that for you to state I do makes it easier for you to deiver a vitriolic post. But it's simply not true and nothing you will have read that I have posted will back you up, quite the contrary. In fact I believe the chances of the scenario happening are negligent almost to the point of being nigh on impossible. However, should it happen then the potential for destruction would indeed be "enormous".

As I stated before, it is those who undertake the risk of insuring aeroplanes, or to be more precise those who provide the capital that allow them to do so, who want to know this kind of thing. And when you are putting such vast amounts of your company's capital at risk, you are not likely to be fobbed off with the answer of "Oh it's very unlikely to happen" if you have bought up the scenario.

While I'll agree with what somebody above said about there being the potential for one aircraft to cause bigger damage in a dense building and population environment, the fact that only one plane would be involved would mean that the loss to that capital provider could easily be established...it would be the limit of the policy of that particular airline.

However, where other aircraft of other airlines are involved, then it is not so easy to put a figure upon it. How many planes might be involved. How many passengers might be affected. (A passengers first call for compensation would be on the airline from whom the ticket was purchased - not the airline of the aircraft causing the accident).

Given the extremely remote chances of such an event happening, it would be nevertheless still appropriate to put a "realistic" feel on it, not simply to assume that all aircraft at the airport have been destroyed and all people at the airport have been killed.

What I have to do is to try my best to simulate what actually might happen if an aircraft did happen to crash into a number of other aircraft, some of which might have passengers on board. So I'm wondering, under the very improbable circumstances that have been set, whether we could argue that once such an aircraft had struck the first plane its momentum would reduce to the extent that only two or three planes would be ultimately destroyed, or whether it would indeed be possible that each and every aircraft in the particular path, even as many as twenty, would be destroyed.

I have no idea myself hence why I'm on here seeking opinions or if anyone is aware of such a study having been undertaken before. In my opinion if anyone knows it's going to be someone or some people who subscribe to this excellent forum.
 
atrude777
Posts: 4444
Joined: Wed Aug 13, 2003 11:23 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Fri Dec 09, 2005 2:05 am

TWA DC-9 crashed and landed onto a Cessna at STL quite awhile ago.

Alex
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
OPNLguy
Posts: 11191
Joined: Tue Jun 15, 1999 11:29 am

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Fri Dec 09, 2005 3:16 am

Quoting Timmytour (Reply 46):
Given the extremely remote chances of such an event happening, it would be nevertheless still appropriate to put a "realistic" feel on it, not simply to assume that all aircraft at the airport have been destroyed and all people at the airport have been killed.

While myself (and I'm sure some others here) could come up with some realistic scenarios that would probably meet your needs, I'm afraid that you're just going to have to "assume" here. From a security perspective, I don't think it makes much sense to highlight or otherwise draw attention to conditions that (while meeting your needs) draw the attention of perhaps someone interested a causing such a calamity that you're just seeking to envision.

There are ways to get the info that you seek, and they don't include posting answers on a public forum.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
Timmytour
Topic Author
Posts: 79
Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2004 8:52 pm

RE: Scenario: Airliner Crashing At An Airport

Fri Dec 09, 2005 7:27 pm

Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 48):

Appreciate that OPNLguy. Actually while terrorism is a potential cause, it would not have a great deal of impact on what I'm looking at as it comes under a different type of coverage. It's more the aircraft out of control as it approaches an airport through some malfunction which would form the basis of the scenario, something I regard as being a highly unlikely though not an unforseeable occurrence.
I'm sure that anybody with a mind intent on deliberately wreaking damage in an aircraft will not have as his or her target the destruction of other aircraft rather than the densely populated cities. I'm not sure either that discussing the extent of the damage, as opposed to the methodology behind the cause, would provide any additional motivation to such a warped mind.

That said I intend to pluck a figure of six aircraft out of the air and assume two of them have passengers in the process of embarking/disembarking and hope this is realistic (though I hope I never get proved right or wrong)

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos