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tu154
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UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 11:56 am

FIRST ON THE ATLANTIC.....FIRST ON THE PACIFIC.....FIRST IN LATIN AMERICA...FIRST 'ROUND THE WORLD.....PAN AM!!
 
jdwfloyd
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 12:16 pm

That is great, wonder if they would go back to an all Boeing fleet in the future, since CO is going that way.
 
gigneil
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 12:19 pm

It would be impractical.

N
 
jaysit
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 12:29 pm

UA and CO?

Poor CO.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
OOer
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 1:02 pm

So....UA will not go all boeing. Airbus is one of their biggest lenders and partners that will help them get out of bankrupcy. After speaking with a UAL 777 captain, I can honestly say that i do not expect ANY boeing orders in the next 10-15 years. I can almost guarantee that UA will choose the A330 to replace the the 767, and will choose the A320 family of planes to keep replacing their aging 737 fleet. As far as their 747 fleet...i dont know. But I do know that its not gonna be a boeing, unless boeing gives UA planes almost for FREE!!!!!

I dont know much about the A350...but I would not be surprised to see UA showing interest in it!!!

[Edited 2006-01-20 05:17:31]
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 1:13 pm

Quoting OOer (Reply 4):
I can almost guarantee that UA will choose the A330 to replace the the 767

Seriously?

If UA isn't going to place a major fleet replacement order for 10-15 years, which is probably somewhat accurate, why would they consider the Airbus A330 in 2016-2020?  eyebrow 

Quoting OOer (Reply 4):
A320 family of planes to keep replacing their aging 737 fleet

With UA recently deferring further A320 purchase rights, the 737 are going to be around for some time.

Quoting OOer (Reply 4):
But I do know that its not gonna be a boeing, unless boeing gives UA planes almost for FREE!!!!! I dont know much about the A350...but I would not be surprised to see UA showing interest in it!!!

Keep the HSO coming... you're on fire  Wink

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 2):
It would be impractical.

If not impossible.
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
OOer
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 1:20 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 5):
If UA isn't going to place a major fleet replacement order for 10-15 years, which is probably somewhat accurate, why would they consider the Airbus A330 in 2016-2020?

UA will place a major fleet replacement withing the next 5 years...at least for their 767!!! So even if its in 2010...the A330 will still make sense.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 5):
With UA recently deferring further A320 purchase rights, the 737 are going to be around for some time.

I would not go that far! I can see all those 737 being replaced within the next 8 years!!!



United WILL post profits in 2006. Once that happens....its a whole new ballgame!
 
jacobin777
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 1:29 pm

Quoting OOer (Reply 4):
So....UA will not go all boeing. Airbus is one of their biggest lenders and partners that will help them get out of bankrupcy. After speaking with a UAL 777 captain, I can honestly say that i do not expect ANY boeing orders in the next 10-15 years. I can almost guarantee that UA will choose the A330 to replace the the 767, and will choose the A320 family of planes to keep replacing their aging 737 fleet. As far as their 747 fleet...i dont know. But I do know that its not gonna be a boeing, unless boeing gives UA planes almost for FREE!!!!!

I dont know much about the A350...but I would not be surprised to see UA showing interest in it!!!

would you care to explain what fantasy world your living in?  confused 

UA has one of the largest fleets of 777's in the world....the 777s are robust in what they do (i.e. can be "abused" for short runs such as SFO-DEN")......UA has worked in tandem with Boeing developing the 777..

The 777's have proven its merit..especially against its competitor...

by the time the 767's will be replaced, the A330 will be an obsolete aircraft also...

the various 787 models are perfect for UA's needs.......

the A380 is too large in but a handful of UA's routes, where as the 747-8I and 777-300ER would fit perfectly for certain UA routes..

I've been saying all along (thus agreeing with you by default) that UA will replace the 737's with new A319/A320's.........

don't know if the A321 will replace the 757's..that's a tough call....
"Up the Irons!"
 
SFOMB67
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 2:20 pm

Business is business. I wouldn't expect UA to treat Airbus any differently than they treated their employees. Whoever comes up with the better price package. Loyalty to none.
Not as easy as originally perceived
 
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centrair
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 2:35 pm

I read the article...now who is merging? I didn't get much out if it.

As for UA fleet. I agree with Sfomb67, UA will redo their fleet based on the needs of the company to do a job and if it fits their pocketbook.

Personally I would like to see the 777-300ER and 788 in UA colors. But if the A350 ends up meeting their long-term needs and pocketbook, then I will be happy with that as well.
My name is Centrair but HND is closer. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
gman3
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 2:50 pm

Quoting OOer (Reply 4):
So..... After speaking with a UAL 777 captain, I can honestly say that i do not expect ANY boeing orders in the next 10-15 years

 Big grin that gave me a good laugh. Just like us flight attendants, they are the last people one should give credence to a rumor!
 
luisca
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 3:07 pm

When will some airbus cheerleaders drill inside their heads the fact that the A358 is TOO large and TOO heavy for the US domestic market. UA, AA, CO, DL and NW all need small widebodies for medium haul domestic routes, the A358 can not perform that task. It is a great airplane for longhauls, but not for short hauls, at least not as currently proposed, maybe a A358 Domestic could be developed in the future.

Most US airlines will need a 763 and an A300 sized airplane, and their is currently only one replacement for each, the 788 and the 783 respectively.
If it ain't Boeing (or Embraer ;-)) I ain't Going!
 
planemaker
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 4:29 pm

I suppose that the only novelty of this article is that Tilton is stating the obvious to the business press. It is just a matter of time. If airlines were allowed to merge today, it would be interesting to see which airlines would in fact end up merging and which airlines would fall by the wayside.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
FCYTravis
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 4:38 pm

The A321 will almost certainly never replace the B752 on United. The A321 design simply doesn't have the capacity or the legs to do what the 752 does in the United States.

It's a fine competitor over in Europe where stage lengths are much shorter, but on US transcontinental runs the A321 shows many deficiencies in comparison. It's smaller, slower, doesn't climb as fast, struggles to reach altitude with a full load of fuel and is stretched to the limit on range when flying even PHL-SFO routes. It also has poor hot-and-high performance in comparison to the hot-rod 752. That's why the A321 has not sold well in the United States.

By way of comparison:

US A321-200s are configured 26/143 - 169 seats.
UA B757-200s are configured 24/158 - 184 seats.
USAir A321 service now departing for SFO with fuel stops in CAK, COS and RNO. Enjoy your flight.
 
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LTU932
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Fri Jan 20, 2006 6:46 pm

I wonder how long it will take for Scott to see this topic...  stirthepot 

Seriously though, whatever UA will choose as 767 fleet replacement for the future, whether it will be the 787 or A330/A350, they will weight out any option and consider every offer they'll get. While the A330 would have the advantage of being offered with PW engines, which would allow them to be more easily integrated into their current PW widebody fleet, the 787 will also offer some cockpit commonality with the 777, 747 and 767, which would make conversion to that type easier. The A330 would also have cockpit commonality with the A319s and A320s in the UA fleet, but the issue is that they would have to learn to fly this new type and while some pilots could have two or even three type ratings for UA's fleet, this would change if UA was to order any Airbus widebodies.

So, as for a future fleet, I see the A319s and A320s having a long future with UA, while a possible widebody order would include a combo of 747-8, 787-8 and just maybe the 777-300ER. I don't think they'll get Airbus widebodies, though I'd love to see one in UA colours.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 12:47 am

Quoting OOer (Reply 4):
After speaking with a UAL 777 captain, I can honestly say that i do not expect ANY boeing orders in the next 10-15 years.

Is that LSD you're on? Lets think about this logically. I'll ignore the fact that you're basing your prediction on the words of one UA captain, and just go right to the facts.

UA operates it's fleet of 763s on US-Europe and US-Hawaii flights for the most part. The A358 was designed to do one thing: fly longhaul. The 787-8, on the other hand, is being designed to be versatile in just about any route length, and UA would also have the option of ordering 787-3s for domestic routes. Not to mention that UA currently operates a fleet of about 60 777-200s, which will share commonality with the 787. UA needs a 767 replacement, not a 777 replacement, and the A350 just doesn't fit that requirement. Just about every airline that has ordered the 787 has a large 767 fleet that's being replaced. Most A350 orders have been from new airlines, or airlines new to widebodies, or to replace larger aircraft (Finnair). UA isn't going to operate the A350, and I'll even go out on a limb and say they'll never order ANY Airbus widebody anytime in the next 30 years.

And A330s? I won't even go there....

Quoting OOer (Reply 4):
unless boeing gives UA planes almost for FREE!!!!!

It's funny you say that...since that's how Airbus got UA to buy A320s! To borrow a term from O'Leary, UA "raped" Airbus on that deal...

[Edited 2006-01-20 16:58:08]
 
tu154
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 12:51 am

Quoting Sfomb67 (Reply 8):
Business is business. I wouldn't expect UA to treat Airbus any differently than they treated their employees. Whoever comes up with the better price package. Loyalty to none.

Well said!
FIRST ON THE ATLANTIC.....FIRST ON THE PACIFIC.....FIRST IN LATIN AMERICA...FIRST 'ROUND THE WORLD.....PAN AM!!
 
congaboy
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 1:09 am

Quoting Sfomb67 (Reply 8):



Quoting Sfomb67 (Reply 8):
Business is business. I wouldn't expect UA to treat Airbus any differently than they treated their employees. Whoever comes up with the better price package. Loyalty to none.

Yes, and especially true for United, speaking from first-hand experience as a vendor to them (reference to "loyalty to none").

Notice Tilton does not specifically address the rumored UA-CO merge; he just validates mergers are likely to occur...it is the so-called industry analysts that seem to fuel this:

but speculation continues that United could eventually combine with Houston-based Continental (NYSE:CAL) .

Conga
"Joey, you like movies about gladiators?"
 
airbusfanyyz
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 1:15 am

IMO, the UA fleet in 2015

A319
A320
B752
B787
B772ER
B773ER
B744

Cheers,
Kaz
 
UALophile
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 1:28 am

If UA and CO merge, with CO managing the operations, UA will be mostly if not all Boeing within 10 years of the merger. I expect the new airline to still be called "United", just as America West bought USAirways, and took the "bigger" name.

You read it here first.
 
jgold47
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 1:34 am

Why CO and not NW? Sounds like a lot of the planes are pretty common? United could pull out of ORD and its congestion and move ops to DTW, or even MSP? I dunno, just a thought?
 
ChicagoFlyer
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 1:39 am

Tilton has been predicting airline mergers for the as long as I can remember. Assuming that consolidation helps decrease capacity and increase fares, any merger not involving own company is a dream for an airline CEO. Merger of own company depends on what kind of "golden parachute" the management gets.

I am not sure why the discussion on this forum shifted from "mergers are predicted" to "what airplanes UA will buy". If one assumes that UA wants to grow, you EITHER buy planes OR buy another airline. UA has said explicitly a number of times that they are not buying any planes in the near future (A320s order will probably not happen, unless AB postpones the launch of the new narrowbody).

So forget all the dreams of "I want UA to buy this cool plane." There are only two options--either 1)stay the same size and grow revenues by running a more efficient operation (and UA is not WN--there's plenty of room to increase A/C, gate and personnel utilization), getting synergies with STAR partners and raising fares; or 2)merge. Growing by buying a bunch of new planes is out of the question.

The real point Tilton was making was that the current 'regulatory environment' --read the Republican government--is more accepting of big airline mergers--if it does not involve any foreign ownership. (that is why we have all the alliances and codesharing--cross-border mergers will not happen. Well, who is going to buy who? The acquirer must have the $$ and the target must be a good value proposition (that is, cheap). CO is good but not cheap. NW is cheap but until they restructure, nobody will touch them with a barge pole. DL is too big to be absorbed.

So my 2c is that a major merger is at least 3-5 years away--for UA or any other big US airline.
 
IceTitan447
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 1:39 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 3):
UA and CO?

Poor CO.

Poor CO is right. Ual will make them a better airline, they will Have a much nicer route structure and their Hub and spoke will do wonders. So if you really look at it, Lucky COSmile

Quoting OOer (Reply 4):
I can almost guarantee that UA will choose the A330 to replace the the 767

I disagree.

Quoting Gman3 (Reply 10):
that gave me a good laugh. Just like us flight attendants, they are the last people one should give credence to a rumor!

You wish. Some UAL pilots actually get into the brass tacks of the airline. Not all pilots are their for a paycheck, they do take interest in internal affairs. Some pilots I know would talk circles around ANY f/a on the haps of the airline.
 
congaboy
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 1:56 am

Quoting ChicagoFlyer (Reply 21):
1)stay the same size and grow revenues by running a more efficient operation (and UA is not WN--there's plenty of room to increase A/C, gate and personnel utilization), getting synergies with STAR partners and raising fares

Welcome to a.net, Chicago. I joined yesterday.

I agree with your statement above. I do not think we see UA buying aircraft anytime soon, and they just dont have the muscle nor the appeal (yet) to either acquire or be acquired. They just steadily improve their financials with what they have...and that is a decent plan, IMO. Just continue to leverage what strengths they have to improve stock holder value.

Conga
"Joey, you like movies about gladiators?"
 
Danny
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 2:09 am

Quoting AirbusfanYYZ (Reply 18):
IMO, the UA fleet in 2015

A319
A320
B752
B787
B772ER
B773ER
B744

A319 - yes
A320 - yes
B752 - A321, 757s will be on the desert by then
B787 - or A350 equal chances
B772ER - yes
B773ER - yes
B744 - 773ER may take over that job

Generally either you buy 773ER + A380 or 748 to try to cover both. I don't see a point having 773ER and 744 at the same time.
 
atmx2000
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 2:28 am

Quoting UALophile (Reply 19):
If UA and CO merge, with CO managing the operations, UA will be mostly if not all Boeing within 10 years of the merger. I expect the new airline to still be called "United", just as America West bought USAirways, and took the "bigger" name.

You read it here first.

Maybe they would dump the Ted brand and use one of the brands for a low fare service.

Quoting Jgold47 (Reply 20):
Why CO and not NW?

There would be too much overlap between hubs. UA and NW have major midwest hub operations and cutting those down is going to be a major effort. Plus the US government would possibly object to the combined airlines domination of US Pacific traffic, particularly to Japan.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
planemaker
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 2:32 am

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 15):
UA isn't going to operate the A350, and I'll even go out on a limb and say they'll never order ANY Airbus widebody anytime in the next 30 years.

30 years is a looooooooooooooong time! No one predicted 10 years ago the mess that the legacies find themselves in today, so I wouldn't go out on a limb... it is pretty rotten.

Quoting Congaboy (Reply 17):
Notice Tilton does not specifically address the rumored UA-CO merge; he just validates mergers are likely to occur...it is the so-called industry analysts that seem to fuel this:

True about Tilton not responding specifically. However, I believe that Bethune himself speculated last year that CO and UA would make good partners. So, if you are an "industry" analyst it would be logical to try to pair up airlines as mergers will eventually happen.

Quoting ChicagoFlyer (Reply 21):
I am not sure why the discussion on this forum shifted from "mergers are predicted" to "what airplanes UA will buy".

Unfortunately, A vs B seems to wedge itself into almost every thread.

Quoting ChicagoFlyer (Reply 21):
So forget all the dreams of "I want UA to buy this cool plane." There are only two options...

There will probably be a third option... picking up aircraft and assets from a failed legacy.

Quoting ChicagoFlyer (Reply 21):
So my 2c is that a major merger is at least 3-5 years away--for UA or any other big US airline.

Even a year can be a long time with the way things are going for the legacies. I think that there will have to be a major merger of at least two of the legacies within the next couple of years (or a major collapse.)
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
CHI787ORD
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 2:49 am

Quoting Jgold47 (Reply 20):
United could pull out of ORD and its congestion and move ops to DTW, or even MSP? I dunno, just a thought?

They would never drop ORD. DTW and MSP do not have nearly as much O&D as Chicago does.
 
ikramerica
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 3:19 am

Quoting UALophile (Reply 19):
If UA and CO merge, with CO managing the operations, UA will be mostly if not all Boeing within 10 years of the merger. I expect the new airline to still be called "United", just as America West bought USAirways, and took the "bigger" name.

You read it here first.



Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 25):
Maybe they would dump the Ted brand and use one of the brands for a low fare service.

That's what I've been saying for a while. Pure conjecture, but if the two were to combine, they would SPIN OFF the entire A320 fleet into "United" which would be what TED is now. It's called divesting. It helps the merger go through regulators. It simplifies the fleet of the international carrier.

UA and CO don't need all their domestic capacity when combined, but international capacity, yes. They can retire some of the oldest 737s, 757s, 767s and 777As as well if redundant, and if they order 773ERs, could likely start to phase out the 744s. The full service side of the carrier would only continue to take the limited 738s that CO has on order until a 797 became available.

But UNITED as an A320 based LCC with bases in ORD, IAD, CLE and DEN would be an interesting airline.
CONTINENTAL as a full service international airline with hubs in EWR, IAH, LAX, SFO, ORD, HNL/GUM and NRT with LHR rights is a major player.

PS - here's a thought... what is preventing a merger of UA/CO/F9, with the above idea put in place, but the Airbus/TED fleet being combined with the F9 fleet into an even larger A320 based LCC? Downside is you'd see the Frontier name go away, and all those cuddly animals...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
atmx2000
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 3:20 am

Quoting CHI787ORD (Reply 27):
They would never drop ORD. DTW and MSP do not have nearly as much O&D as Chicago does.

That would be the dumbest thing to do if UA and NW were to merge. I'm sure AA would be overjoyed.

Anyway UA & CO is attractive because they would have strong hubs in cities/airports with major international traffic and strong coverage of Asia/Pacific, Europe and Latin America routes.

UA - ORD, SFO, IAD
CO - EWR, IAH

Those hubs are well spread out so they won't have to deal with having too much capacity in any one region and rationalizing domestic route structure. On the other hand there won't be much savings from market consolidation at airports they serve, but they'll be able to make better use of their existing international traffic rights and slots. EWR-LHR would be a good route, and perhaps they could start IAH-LHR after negotiation with the UK. The combined airline would be able to draw connecting traffic from LatAm. They could do the same for NRT as well.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
atmx2000
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 3:29 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 28):
But UNITED as an A320 based LCC with bases in ORD, IAD, CLE and DEN would be an interesting airline.
CONTINENTAL as a full service international airline with hubs in EWR, IAH, LAX, SFO, ORD, HNL/GUM and NRT with LHR rights is a major player.

It would be probably as close as possible to a viable reincarnation of Pan Am.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 28):
PS - here's a thought... what is preventing a merger of UA/CO/F9, with the above idea put in place, but the Airbus/TED fleet being combined with the F9 fleet into an even larger A320 based LCC? Downside is you'd see the Frontier name go away, and all those cuddly animals...

I would think there would be antitrust considerations regarding the Denver market. Of course, maybe with Southwest moving in, DOJ would allow it to go through provided that Southwest is able to expand operations there.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
wdleiser
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 4:02 am

Quoting UALophile (Reply 19):
If UA and CO merge, with CO managing the operations, UA will be mostly if not all Boeing within 10 years of the merger. I expect the new airline to still be called "United", just as America West bought USAirways, and took the "bigger" name.

If the two merge, I see UA pilots operating the Airbus' and CO pilots operating the CO planes and Boeings. All UA pilots will fly the current UA fleet out of current UA hubs while the CO pilots will fly the CO Boeings out of CO hubs. If you ask me its perfect, prevents the need to retrain pilots and all that good stuff.
 
ikramerica
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Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 4:50 am

No, not like PanAm

I'm not saying CO would stop domestic flying. Only they would not EXPAND it too much. They would take the UA 737s and 757s and 767s and 777As and do what they need with them to keep ORD, DEN, IAD, SFO, and LAX with sufficient traffic for their needs, and retire the rest. But expand greatly internationally by combining the two fleets.

Then, the non-international focused domestic travelers (leisure, domestic based business, etc.) would still be served by CO or UA(ted) like they are now. There are no anti-trust issues with losing 1 international carrier, but would be on the domestic side.

Internationally, the USA would be much better served with AA, NW/DL, CO/UA. No, I don't count US much. They don't have much international service or reputation, but nothing's stopping them from growing into that if they choose. But 3 "super carriers" for international operations would keep the airlines stronger while still provide enough competition/options for the consumer (when combined with foreign options on most routes).

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 30):
Of course, maybe with Southwest moving in, DOJ would allow it to go through provided that Southwest is able to expand operations there.

yep. and before f9 grew, ua already owned den, and basically still does.

But if United was based there and IAD, CLE and ORD, it doesn't mean the CO airline that emerges wouldn't also have a focus in IAD, CLE and DEN, just not a major domestic hubs. IAD would still have EU flights, for example, and DEN could as well, and CLE could have their summer LGW, but basically just for O&D and COex local feeder connections at these airports. Major hubbing would be New York, Houston, Chicago, LA and SFO. And of course the "triangle" of the pacific network would be stronger if CO were in NRT/GUM/HNL with the combined pressence of current UA.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
travelin man
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2000 10:04 am

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 4:53 am

Let's play "guess which hubs would be kept"!

UA+CO:
My prediction is that SFO, ORD, EWR, and IAH would be kept.
LAX, DEN, CLE, and IAD -- buh bye (although they could be kept as "focus cities")
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:24 pm

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 5:13 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 32):
No, not like PanAm

I'm not saying CO would stop domestic flying. Only they would not EXPAND it too much. They would take the UA 737s and 757s and 767s and 777As and do what they need with them to keep ORD, DEN, IAD, SFO, and LAX with sufficient traffic for their needs, and retire the rest. But expand greatly internationally by combining the two fleets.

That's why I said a viable version of Pan Am, meaning it does fly domestically with a sensible network.

As for spinning off a LCC carrier, the only reason I see to do that is to make union negotiations less of a problem by separating the workforce. I don't really see major antitrust issues on the domestic side for a CO & UA merger, except with regards to traffic between hubs. But I don't think a LCC operation should concentrate on a few hubs like you are proposing. Better to have a more diffuse structure concentrating on O&D that doesn't try to subsidize spoke traffic via higher prices for hub-hub traffic. It will insulate the merged airline from competition from LCCs like Southwest, and will ensure that they stay out of trouble with the DOJ.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 32):
Internationally, the USA would be much better served with AA, NW/DL, CO/UA. No, I don't count US much. They don't have much international service or reputation, but nothing's stopping them from growing into that if they choose. But 3 "super carriers" for international operations would keep the airlines stronger while still provide enough competition/options for the consumer (when combined with foreign options on most routes).

Or NW/AA. But fundamentally I agree. 5 transoceanic carriers plus a 6th weaker one is too much for the US market at the current size. 3 to 4 carriers is what would make sense.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
CO767FA
Posts: 388
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2005 1:45 am

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 5:22 am

Quoting Travelin man (Reply 33):
Let's play "guess which hubs would be kept"!

UA+CO:
My prediction is that SFO, ORD, EWR, and IAH would be kept.
LAX, DEN, CLE, and IAD -- buh bye (although they could be kept as "focus cities")

Your DEN prediction would be all wrong. Larry stated in a employee meeting that the biggest error CO made was to abandon DEN.
 
ChicagoFlyer
Posts: 210
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2006 9:00 am

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 5:39 am

United has pledged to Denver that they will not decrease their presence there. Should they abandon DEN they will be in big trouble as the city will want millions of $$ back. So if you are hypothesising about future hubs  Silly please keep DEN on your map.
 
IceTitan447
Posts: 450
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2006 11:27 am

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 5:56 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 28):
CONTINENTAL as a full service international airline with hubs in EWR, IAH, LAX, SFO, ORD, HNL/GUM and NRT with LHR rights is a major player

CO is not but a splinter in a few of those markets. The UAL brand is more powerful in both NRT and LHR. Some of what you say makes sense, but not when it comes to hubs.

UAL would never make DEN, or ORD just an LCC base.
UAL would lose so many passengers in both those major markets. I would even go out on a limb and say DEN and ORD are busier than CO biggest hub. COrrect me if I'm wrong, please.
 
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antoniemey
Posts: 1419
Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2005 5:38 pm

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 6:22 am

Quoting OOer (Reply 6):
United WILL post profits in 2006. Once that happens....its a whole new ballgame!

Got a crystal ball? Or are you just high? No one can guarantee profits until they are in the bank.

Quoting UALophile (Reply 19):
If UA and CO merge, with CO managing the operations, UA will be mostly if not all Boeing within 10 years of the merger. I expect the new airline to still be called "United", just as America West bought USAirways, and took the "bigger" name.

You read it here first.

uh... Continental is as known as United in many markets and also has a better reputation in several areas at this point. IF Continental management (And this is already assuming this beast of a merger went forward) was in control, the CO name would stay.

Quoting IceTitan447 (Reply 22):
Poor CO is right. Ual will make them a better airline, they will Have a much nicer route structure and their Hub and spoke will do wonders. So if you really look at it, Lucky CO. Smile

Lucky CO? Not if United management was in control.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 26):
Even a year can be a long time with the way things are going for the legacies. I think that there will have to be a major merger of at least two of the legacies within the next couple of years (or a major collapse.)

With the way NW management is going, I look for them to shut down over labor difficulties if any airline does.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 28):
PS - here's a thought... what is preventing a merger of UA/CO/F9, with the above idea put in place, but the Airbus/TED fleet being combined with the F9 fleet into an even larger A320 based LCC? Downside is you'd see the Frontier name go away, and all those cuddly animals...

ye gods! ICK ICK ICK! beyond the regulatory issues, you'd basically take three good companies and make one or two poor ones.

Quoting Icetitan447 (Reply 37):
I would even go out on a limb and say DEN and ORD are busier than CO biggest hub. COrrect me if I'm wrong, please.

ORD yes... DEN is way behind EWR and IAH.
Make something Idiot-proof, and the Universe will make a more inept idiot.
 
Midway2AirTran
Posts: 847
Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2003 7:34 am

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 6:43 am

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 12):
I suppose that the only novelty of this article is that Tilton is stating the obvious to the business press.

I agree! Tilton is just trying to add credibility to himself by stating the obivious with his background as an oil tycoon
"Life is short, but your delay in ATL is not."
 
SHUPirate1
Posts: 3428
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RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 6:50 am

Quoting OOer (Reply 6):
United WILL post profits in 2006.

I'm assuming you are including the nearly ten billion in monopoly money credits they are expecting the instant they walk out of the Northern District of Illinois Courthouse for the last time. I love flying United, but I just find a full year 2006 profit for United to be highly unlikely...that said, I've been made to eat my words before...
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
 
tu154
Topic Author
Posts: 346
Joined: Fri Dec 17, 2004 1:37 am

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 7:03 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 30):
It would be probably as close as possible to a viable reincarnation of Pan Am.

Hey....maybe they would dump both names in a merger and call it Pan American World Airways!

just a fantasy i guess
FIRST ON THE ATLANTIC.....FIRST ON THE PACIFIC.....FIRST IN LATIN AMERICA...FIRST 'ROUND THE WORLD.....PAN AM!!
 
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STT757
Posts: 14126
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 7:08 am

Quoting Icetitan447 (Reply 37):
CO is not but a splinter in a few of those markets. The UAL brand is more powerful in both NRT and LHR. Some of what you say makes sense, but not when it comes to hubs.

CO is more powerful in NYC (largest US market), more powerful in Latin America, Mexico, Caribbean, and larger in the Southeastern US.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 7:11 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 42):
CO is more powerful in NYC (largest US market), more powerful in Latin America, Mexico, Caribbean, and larger in the Southeastern US.

But UA is more powerful in the midwest (ORD) and west coast (SFO/LAX/DEN)....not to mention, all the asia routes...

Europe..thats a bit of a tossup..but I would probably give UA the nudge there..
"Up the Irons!"
 
warreng24
Posts: 574
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2005 9:38 am

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 7:24 am

Something to think about... CO's 764's painted in UA's new white livery with those raked wingtips.... sexy.
 
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STT757
Posts: 14126
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 8:06 am

Quoting Warreng24 (Reply 44):
Something to think about... CO's 764's painted in UA's new white livery with those raked wingtips.... sexy.

Better yet UAL's 747-400s in CO colors.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
Randy4920
Posts: 117
Joined: Mon Oct 09, 2000 12:10 pm

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 8:19 am

I like that one STT757!  Smile
 
FCYTravis
Posts: 1172
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2005 4:21 am

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 8:24 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 24):
B752 - A321, 757s will be on the desert by then

Again, you are smoking crack if you think United will replace 757s with A321s. The A321 simply is not a viable replacement for the performance, capacity and range of the 757-200 on the majority of US domestic routes.

Don't get me wrong, I *like* the A321-200. But the plane simply can't do what a 752 can.

[Edited 2006-01-21 00:30:47]
USAir A321 service now departing for SFO with fuel stops in CAK, COS and RNO. Enjoy your flight.
 
tu154
Topic Author
Posts: 346
Joined: Fri Dec 17, 2004 1:37 am

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 8:52 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 43):
Quoting STT757 (Reply 42):
CO is more powerful in NYC (largest US market), more powerful in Latin America, Mexico, Caribbean, and larger in the Southeastern US.

But UA is more powerful in the midwest (ORD) and west coast (SFO/LAX/DEN)....not to mention, all the asia routes...

Europe..thats a bit of a tossup..but I would probably give UA the nudge there

Again, what is it with the male preoccupation with size??
FIRST ON THE ATLANTIC.....FIRST ON THE PACIFIC.....FIRST IN LATIN AMERICA...FIRST 'ROUND THE WORLD.....PAN AM!!
 
COTXDFW777AA
Posts: 314
Joined: Sun Feb 15, 2004 10:36 am

RE: UAL's Tilton Predicts Airline Mergers.

Sat Jan 21, 2006 8:54 am

If it went through, which I kinda think it will eventually happen. Give UA a year or two out of bankruptcy, get relatively stable, then will see. I think you would see IAH, ORD, EWR, SFO, DEN and then IAD, LAX and CLE with a focus city status and a few intl. routes and a seasonal run or two. I think it would be most likely Continental would be in charge (or atleast I hope so) and would retain that name. It would also be interesting to see what alliance they would quit/stay in. (I personally think star, leave skyteam to DL and NW) just my .02.
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