SkyWest To Fly MOD-LAX

xpfg · Sat Mar 11, 2006 3:46 pm

Just the other day I was chatting and offered a position for a future service in MOD between MOD and LAX. The details were that MOD would increase from 4 flights daily, to 9. My question was why so many more to SFO, but come to find out, it will be 4x daily to LAX, and an added flight to SFO to make it 5x daily there.

I refrained from posting anything here until I could show some kind of proof, even though I have seen the schedules for these routes. The plan is to fly MOD-LAX in May, and this is before QX starts it's very own MOD-LAX service with Q400's. OO operated flights will be operated entirely with EMB-120's.

To show a couple of documents regarding this, here is the SkyWest info:

http://www.modestogov.com/council/Commagendas/ed/pdf/EDa7.pdf

Additionally, the MOD airport has resubmitted a revised request for additional grant cash for use with maintenance and studies. You can read about this here:

http://www.modestogov.com/council/Commagendas/ed/pdf/EDa9.pdf

With the announcement of OO service coming after recently announced QX details, I somewhat had a feeling this was coming. These flights will be United Express operated, and for most obvious reasons, to defend UAL turf in LAX.

Quite interesting, but exciting for MOD itself! Smile

wedgetail737 · Sat Mar 11, 2006 10:42 pm

Sounds like MOD is getting a sudden increase in air service. I just hope Modesto and its surrounding community can sustain such service.

FATFlyer · Sun Mar 12, 2006 1:26 am

Looking at the first document it says the UAX MOD-LAX service will be using SCASD funds. This was what was to be used to attract QX flights. I don't see QX starting service if the revenue guarantee is no longer available.

Quoting Wedgetail737 (Reply 1):
Sounds like MOD is getting a sudden increase in air service. I just hope Modesto and its surrounding community can sustain such service.

The MOD area has seen a large surge of growth. Additionally the newest University of California campus opened this year in Merced, about 35 miles south.

Besides the UC, many companies are looking at the Merced area to locate to take advantage of university research.

Merced Airport only has Scenic flights to North Las Vegas, although Scenic is considering adding Reno service. So the next closest airports to the campus with flights are MOD (35 miles) and FAT (60 miles).

xpfg · Sun Mar 12, 2006 2:59 am

I have discussed the flights regarding QX with airport admin and OO employees as well. QX is still a go at MOD, and is just awaiting the aircraft approval. OO only jumped in on it with UA to get things started before QX.

As it stands, you can subtly see the changes taking effect at the MOD terminal, such as the ticket counter just recently being split into two (which was the plan for QX service), and half the wall being repainted white, rather than keeping it full UA grey/blue combo.

This will be a good thing for the community, and I'm desperately hoping the city approves. OO and UA are definitely ready to go with it with the cities approval, and as said, the schedule for it is already built.

We'll see! Smile

md90fan · Sun Mar 12, 2006 3:02 am

Where will the QX Q400 come from? Like where will it be based or how will it get to MOD?

copaair737 · Sun Mar 12, 2006 4:30 am

Wow, this is really awesome. Two airlines with service to LAX. I remember OO was applying for SCK-LAX, but not LAX. This is pretty cool though. It's always good to see an increase in flights at MOD. Will this service be on the EMB-120 or the CRJ? I would guess the EMB-120, but thats just me. Great news though. I always wondered why there was no LAX service, and now there is--on two airlines.

-Copa

flypdx · Sun Mar 12, 2006 4:35 am

Quoting Copaair737 (Reply 5):
Will this service be on the EMB-120 or the CRJ? I would guess the EMB-120, but thats just me. Great news though. I always wondered why there was no LAX service, and now there is--on two airlines.

Quoting Xpfg (Thread starter):
OO operated flights will be operated entirely with EMB-120's.

copaair737 · Sun Mar 12, 2006 4:39 am

Oh, didn't see that bit there, I just sorta skimmed over the whole thing when I was reading it.

-Copa

N1120A · Sun Mar 12, 2006 4:49 am

Quoting MD90fan (Reply 4):
Where will the QX Q400 come from? Like where will it be based or how will it get to MOD?

Will almost certainly be LAX based.

Goldenshield · Sun Mar 12, 2006 4:51 am

See if the airport will approve a BBQ since you guys will be in fairly tight quarters.

FATFlyer · Sun Mar 12, 2006 5:11 am

Quoting Xpfg (Reply 3):
I have discussed the flights regarding QX with airport admin and OO employees as well. QX is still a go at MOD, and is just awaiting the aircraft approval. OO only jumped in on it with UA to get things started before QX.

But what is the story with the SCASD grant? Modesto got $550,000 to attract MOD-LAX service, targeting Horizon.

What is the plan now? Split the SCASD grant between the 2 airlines? Use other funds for a revenue guarantee for Horizon? Or is Horizon planning to start using no financial support which would put them at a disadvantage.

wedgetail737 · Sun Mar 12, 2006 5:16 am

Will MOD be able to sustain pax traffic for the 70-pax aircraft? I wonder if we'll start seeing some Q200's down in California.

If that happened, that would be the first intra-California route for a Dash 8-100/200 in quite a while. I know US Airways Express (America West Express) flies Dash 8's into CA.

xpfg · Sun Mar 12, 2006 7:03 am

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 10):
But what is the story with the SCASD grant? Modesto got $550,000 to attract MOD-LAX service, targeting Horizon.

This is still it's purpose. They plan to also use some PFC fees to pay off reimbursements. Additionally, it was mentioned there was a large "loan" taken out for something, but I can't officially prove evidence of this.

MOD can definitely handle the 70 seats, but it's a matter of ADVERTISING. If the service is to work, it needs just that. Unfortunately, half the people in Modesto barely even realize there is commercial service there, let alone an airport to begin with! With the right combo of a build up and good advertising, it could work very well. Not just for those in the MOD area, but also Merced, Stockton, etc. I have a feeling the service will do quite well.

One thing to mention though...while MOD can sustain the 70 seat Q400, how many flights per day would be uncertain. We'll see in the future for that one! The best person to ask for this would be AS739X, as he was recently quoted saying "Look for our MOD service soon!" Smile

I honestly doubt the 100/200 DSH8 will ever come to MOD, as it seems to be something QX would like to make the past. I could be very wrong though, and don't deny that this is just my own speculation. Whatever comes about it, I hope it does well!

FATFlyer · Sun Mar 12, 2006 7:37 am

Quoting Xpfg (Reply 12):
This is still it's purpose. They plan to also use some PFC fees to pay off reimbursements. Additionally, it was mentioned there was a large "loan" taken out for something, but I can't officially prove evidence of this.

So I'm afraid I'm still confused, why does the city staff memo say, "The Airline Revenue Guarantee Agreement is pursuant to the grant funds requirements provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation ‘Small Community Air Service Grant’ that was awarded to Modesto City-County Airport in August 2005." It also says that SCASD will cover 86.4% of the revenue guarantee.

That comes across to me like the SCASD funds are going to be used by Skywest instead of Horizon.

N1120A · Sun Mar 12, 2006 7:49 am

Quoting Wedgetail737 (Reply 11):
If that happened, that would be the first intra-California route for a Dash 8-100/200 in quite a while. I know US Airways Express (America West Express) flies Dash 8's into CA.

While HPX used to fly Dash-8s to a few more locations in CA, the only one I know of anymore is PSP, which gets a mix of CR2s, CR9s and DH8s

DesertAir · Sun Mar 12, 2006 8:08 am

I find it interesting that Modesto has passenger service and Stockton cannot sustain any service at all. The last service there was HPExpress to Phoenix.
A few weeks ago while visiting parents I drove out to the airport and noticed that on the bulletin board the Airport meeting agenda included service by AM.

FATFlyer · Sun Mar 12, 2006 8:12 am

Quoting DesertAir (Reply 15):
I find it interesting that Modesto has passenger service and Stockton cannot sustain any service at all. The last service there was HPExpress to Phoenix.
A few weeks ago while visiting parents I drove out to the airport and noticed that on the bulletin board the Airport meeting agenda included service by AM.

There are a couple of reasons why AWX didn't work out. But no matter what the reason, SCK is just that much closer to SMF to have strong competition.

AM is looking at starting the end of the year. Bids for the FIS construction work are supposed to requested next month, assuming everything stays on schedule.

xpfg · Sun Mar 12, 2006 8:15 am

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 13):
So I'm afraid I'm still confused, why does the city staff memo say, "The Airline Revenue Guarantee Agreement is pursuant to the grant funds requirements provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation ‘Small Community Air Service Grant’ that was awarded to Modesto City-County Airport in August 2005." It also says that SCASD will cover 86.4% of the revenue guarantee.

My apologies on the wording there, FATFlyer. The "loan" talk was regarding QX, not OO. Again, all I heard was it was a substantial additional amount of money on top of the grant. I can't say anything more on it, as I know much of nothing more.

I really hope AS739X can chime in here on QX's behalf.

FATFlyer · Sun Mar 12, 2006 8:19 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 14):
While HPX used to fly Dash-8s to a few more locations in CA, the only one I know of anymore is PSP, which gets a mix of CR2s, CR9s and DH8s

I believe Carlsbad still sees 1X daily.

FATFlyer · Sun Mar 12, 2006 8:22 am

Quoting Xpfg (Reply 17):
My apologies on the wording there, FATFlyer. The "loan" talk was regarding QX, not OO. Again, all I heard was it was a substantial additional amount of money on top of the grant. I can't say anything more on it, as I know much of nothing more.

Interesting, so what you are saying is Federal grant money would support MOD-LAX on UAX/Skywest, while possibly local borrowed money would support MOD-LAX on QX. That's a different kind of situation, creating competition like that.

I'll have to see if I can do some digging up that way next week to find out more.

N1120A · Sun Mar 12, 2006 10:37 am

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 18):
I believe Carlsbad still sees 1X daily.

Yep, correct.

xpfg · Sun Mar 12, 2006 10:40 am

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 19):

I'll have to see if I can do some digging up that way next week to find out more.

By all means, do! Anymore info and concrete backing that you can get is just as interesting as anything I would have. Smile

But the way you has said it regarding the loan is correct...at least, that's the way it was explained to me. Like I said, I can't attest or prove this in any way, and am treating it as a rumor for the most part (the loan).

xpfg · Sun Mar 12, 2006 1:57 pm

FATFlyer,

A response to an e-mail was written to my friend regarding the use of the SCASD funds will be all directed to OO. I have said this, but just wanted to put it in plain text, and re-iterate that you are also right.

Lastly, I still am unsure about this whole "loan" thing.

wedgetail737 · Sun Mar 12, 2006 11:29 pm

If the MOD-LAX does well, perhaps in the not-too-distant future, QX will open SEA-MOD.

FATFlyer · Mon Mar 13, 2006 2:01 am

In the paper this morning, but nothing new in the article.
http://www.modbee.com/local/story/11923682p-12690525c.html

xpfg · Mon Mar 13, 2006 3:32 am

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 24):
In the paper this morning, but nothing new in the article.

Unfortunately, I can't read this here at work. SkyWest restricts us to viewing mainly only airline sites, but airliners.net seems to be an exception. Will look at the paper today later today, I suppose.

Quoting Wedgetail737 (Reply 23):
If the MOD-LAX does well, perhaps in the not-too-distant future, QX will open SEA-MOD.

Boy...I don't know about that one. If anything PDX, but I really don't see as much a market for either one of those as much as I do for LAX. However, it is the airline industry, and anything could happen, I suppsoe.

wedgetail737 · Mon Mar 13, 2006 9:46 am

I know. It's a long-shot. But ATA flying between OAK and ITO was never expected.

as739x · Mon Mar 13, 2006 11:10 am

If/when QX starts MOD-LAX, it will still be a PDX based A/C like all flights are now. QX has nothing based at LAX and doesn't plan to. They route their crews and planes out to other city's to rotate them through Portland. MOD service has been very quite. With the 2 new A/C from Hainan. it may open things a little. But unfortunatly QX has some issue's they need to figure out with the Q400. They have been terrible lately. Now I have been gone the last 3 days, but we've had multiple QX flights cancel. (granted one was due to a lightning strike, out of their control). I'll see if I can dig up info from my QX higher up's.

ASLAX

copaair737 · Mon Mar 13, 2006 11:48 am

Wedgetail- I agree, OAK-ITO was very unexpected for me. I think seeing PDX-MOD eventually wouldn't be that surprising, given the large growth of the Central Valley. LAX-MOD is an inevitibility though, seeing two carriers on it is surprising though. I think given the choice, I would go with QX, but OO offers a good product that I have used many times as well. It is good for the growth of the city for more air service options. Look at Fresno, not so long ago it was almost exclusively regional service, now we see mainline on AA, US, and MX, and possibly even AM. Build it and then they will come.

-Copa

Trvlr · Mon Mar 13, 2006 1:56 pm

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 18):
I believe Carlsbad still sees 1X daily.

And I think it's going 2x daily for the summer. At least, that's what OAG says.

Aaron G.

xpfg · Mon Mar 13, 2006 2:13 pm

Quoting Copaair737 (Reply 28):
now we see mainline on AA, US, and MX, and possibly even AM. Build it and then they will come.

Don't believe US Air is there is it?

copaair737 · Mon Mar 13, 2006 2:31 pm

Xpfg- Well, US as America West, they are the same company now these days. There is mainline LAS-FAT coming in April I believe.

-Copa

xpfg · Mon Mar 13, 2006 3:04 pm

Quoting Copaair737 (Reply 31):
Xpfg- Well, US as America West, they are the same company now these days. There is mainline LAS-FAT coming in April I believe.

Ah, I was unaware of mainline coming in. If this is true, very cool, and should put some jetways into use at FAT I hope! Smile

FATFlyer · Mon Mar 13, 2006 3:07 pm

Quoting Copaair737 (Reply 31):
There is mainline LAS-FAT coming in April I believe.

Exactly, they are converting one of the 2 CR9 flights to an A319 in a few weeks.

ILOVEA340 · Mon Mar 13, 2006 3:09 pm

The funny thing is that that is now yet another airport with expanding service that can get me relatively close to home. I've got 3 airports whithin 45min (SFO, OAK, SJC) one within 70min (MOD) and one within 100min (SMF) all with substantial service (well maybe not MOD)

fun fun fun

copaair737 · Mon Mar 13, 2006 3:33 pm

MOD service isn't much. I think I've only flown out of there once. I use FAT when I can, then SMF, and after t hat, I go to the Bay Area. I never have flown out of SJC though. New Central Valley service is always good though. Hopefully SCK gets those AM flights going soon.

-Copa

xpfg · Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:30 am

Just copied down the current schedule set for MOD once the LAX service begins. All flights are to start May 2nd. The days flights are as follows:

Departing/Arriving Times:

MOD-SFO @0500
MOD-LAX @0625
SFO-MOD @0900
MOD-SFO @0915
LAX-MOD @0939
MOD-LAX @0955
SFO-MOD @1158
MOD-SFO @1214
LAX-MOD @1340
MOD-LAX @1355
SFO-MOD @1414
MOD-SFO @1430
LAX-MOD @1635
MOD-LAX @1700
SFO-MOD @1649
MOD-SFO @1709
LAX-MOD @2036
SFO-MOD @2125

stirling · Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:49 am

Thanks for putting up the times Xpfg.

The 0625 rotation to LAX...I wonder if that will be changing once fog season rolls around? To something around 0500 like the SFO flight?

If anything can be a buzzkiller on airline service around here, and that is weather!

Fog wasn't that bad this year, probably 20 days total this season I am going to guess, but we have no idea what the next one has in store. There have been years where Fog can be bad enough to affect aviation activities over 60 days a year (Nov-Feb).

Got to love the Modesto Bee....they must be all caught up in the Knight-Ridder takeover euphoria to consider this news....it was buried in an article of city council happenings.

copaair737 · Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:16 pm

Looks like a decent schedule. If I were still living down there, I'd fly on it down to LAX. I hope people start using MOD more and more as the new service starts to show.
So is QX still starting service too? THis is a bit confusing to me.

-Copa

stirling · Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:34 pm

From what I understand, if Horizon can allocate the aircraft, they're more than welcome too!

Forgot to ask.....
What is the arrival time in LAX?

If it is what I think, and about 1:20-1:30....it will make a day trip to LAX feasible for the first time in very very long time!

Fares determined yet? Heck, I may just do it for kicks...that is, if it's less than a grand!

xpfg · Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:24 pm

Quoting Stirling (Reply 39):
If it is what I think, and about 1:20-1:30....it will make a day trip to LAX feasible for the first time in very very long time!

Stirling, it's slated to be right around 1:05. Chalk time will add an extra 5 min. or so, so 1:10 to the gate, or around there. Smile

The prices will not be dependent upon you connecting to a flight via UAL at LAX, as it's an OO at risk route, and will probably be comparable to those prices at FAT. My guess is somewhere around $180-200/rt...depending on how early you purchase. Smile

Goldenshield · Tue Mar 14, 2006 8:07 pm

Quoting Xpfg (Reply 40):
The prices will not be dependent upon you connecting to a flight via UAL at LAX, as it's an OO at risk route, and will probably be comparable to those prices at FAT.

MOD-LAX will not be an at-risk route; it originates at, and returns to a hub.

stirling · Wed Mar 15, 2006 12:44 am

Actually. $180-$200 isn't that bad...I've been running the numbers...what it costs me now for a one day business trip (which is actually 2 days because of travel time) and it is only slightly more.

But in respect to time being money....the forecasted fare is bargain..

I CAN'T WAIT!

Now a San Diego link is all that remains to make me one happy camper! (And then DEN, PHX, LAS, and PDX..I'm not greedy!)

xpfg · Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:05 am

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 41):
MOD-LAX will not be an at-risk route; it originates at, and returns to a hub.

Goldenshield...While it is a hub route, it will be at risk. Additionally, MOD-SFO will be going to at risk as well. I got this info from the MOD station manager who just got back from a meeting in LAS.

I wish it wasn't so, and I would hope she's wrong. However, being the station manager, I can't see how she is.

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