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jumbojet
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Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Mon Mar 13, 2006 5:21 pm

Only because i have nothing else better to do with my time, I was checking out DL's seat availability from ATL to GIG and noticed that flights well into June and July are nearly sold out already. Being that there's still a good 3 to 4 months to go before these flights, it seems that yields are high, seats are selling like hot cakes, why not add a 2nd daily flight? If DL has two daily ATL to GRU flights, then a 2nd GIG seems like it also might do well.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Mon Mar 13, 2006 5:34 pm

Delta won't have two daily ATL-GRU flights for long. The second flight will move to JFK this spring. Adding a second daily flight really hurt the passenger yields. In addition, Delta's ATL-GIG flight, despite a strong start this past October, barely makes money. Profitable, but not a huge moneymaker. Also, Delta can only fly twenty-one flights a week to Brazil, and there are not free frequencies for them to apply for more. Not that they need to, because they already have seven frequencies too many.
a.
 
jumbojet
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Mon Mar 13, 2006 6:22 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
Delta won't have two daily ATL-GRU flights for long. The second flight will move to JFK this spring. Adding a second daily flight really hurt the passenger yields. In addition, Delta's ATL-GIG flight, despite a strong start this past October, barely makes money. Profitable, but not a huge moneymaker. Also, Delta can only fly twenty-one flights a week to Brazil, and there are not free frequencies for them to apply for more. Not that they need to, because they already have seven frequencies too many.

Thanks for the explanation. very thorough and concise
 
AF022
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Mon Mar 13, 2006 6:27 pm

Yields on most GIG routes are lousy. Anyone can fill a long-haul flight to GIG - the key is making it profitable.
 
SESGDL
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:40 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
Delta won't have two daily ATL-GRU flights for long. The second flight will move to JFK this spring. Adding a second daily flight really hurt the passenger yields. In addition, Delta's ATL-GIG flight, despite a strong start this past October, barely makes money. Profitable, but not a huge moneymaker. Also, Delta can only fly twenty-one flights a week to Brazil, and there are not free frequencies for them to apply for more. Not that they need to, because they already have seven frequencies too many.

Who's to say that ATL-GIG is a big moneymaker or not? Not even DL employees have privy to that information, so I'd like to know why you always seem to know the profitability of routes. Not only that, but people believe you wholeheartedly about it too. Unless you work for the DOT and look at the statistics or are a DL exec who does route management, stating a route's profitability is pointless. Also, about having 7 frequencies too many, they wouldn't be too many if it were AA out of MIA would it?  Yeah sure

Jeremy
 
BigGSFO
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:56 pm

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 4):
Also, about having 7 frequencies too many, they wouldn't be too many if it were AA out of MIA would it?

MIA-Brazil is a substantially larger market than ATL and AA could use them to other cities beyond GRU and GIG. Despite the many connections ATL can offer, it can't compare to Miami.

The current US/Brazil bilateral is somewhat of a catch-22: the highly restrictive agreement allows the current airlines operating some level of protection and stalls competition. If the flood gates were to open, say with "Open Skies" (which is unlikely), yields would drop as anyone would be free to operate to any point in Brazil. On the flip side, cities like Brasilia, Belo Horizonte, Recife etc. do not see frequent, non-stop service to the USA because the major business and tourist centers of Sao Paulo and Rio will see service first.

This US/Brazil treaty is always an interesting discussion on this forum and LipeGIG and Mark usually have the most insight.

[Edited 2006-03-13 15:02:11]
 
bsbisland
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Mon Mar 13, 2006 11:11 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
despite a strong start this past October, barely makes money.

Sources please.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 4):
Who's to say that ATL-GIG is a big moneymaker or not? Not even DL employees have privy to that information, so I'd like to know why you always seem to know the profitability of routes

Agree completely.

Here on a.net people love to speculate about profitability and yields of flights. Of course one would agree that Rio de Janeiro is a strong leisure destination, but also a 10 million inhabitants city with a considerable amount of Headquarters of companies and so business traffic. Atlanta-Brazil routes are strong with business pax (I believe).
 
commavia
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Mon Mar 13, 2006 11:15 pm

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 4):
Also, about having 7 frequencies too many, they wouldn't be too many if it were AA out of MIA would it?

No, because AA could easily feel another seven flights per week from MIA to Brazil, where yields are higher, as there are fewer connections and more O&D. If AA were to be given seven additional frequencies -- it would probably put them to use on a 757 flight from MIA to one or more of, among others, BSB, MAO, FOR, REC, SSA, BEL, CNF, and/or NAT. All of these cities would easily generate more than enough traffic to justify a few frequencies per week to MIA, for example, whereas none of them would work via ATL.
 
teixeim
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Mon Mar 13, 2006 11:44 pm

Some readers may have noticed a post I made last week quoting Brazilian travel site Panrotas.com.br which stated (in Portuguese) that DL will begin using the 767-400 on routes to Brazil as soon as the next couple months! That should get additional space for 40-60 econ. travelers!

Here

I am curious about some of the statements other posters made about yield and profitability. So, supposedly "anyone can fill a long-haul to Rio". So, how does an airline make it profitable - careful yield management to ensure the best price is charged without chasing away pax? Can someone talk about that a bit? Anyone got info on cargo yields on the Brazilian routes - usually there's plenty of belly traffic on Brazil-US flights.
 
incitatus
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 1:04 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 4):
Who's to say that ATL-GIG is a big moneymaker or not? Not even DL employees have privy to that information,

In general, I agree with this comment. But if an airline, say Northwest, adds a flight between MSP and Rio, people familiar with the US-Brazil market will state it will lose money based on conventional wisdom. The case of ATL-GIG is not so clear cut but I've heard from a source too familiar with the market that the flight will ultimately be discontinued.

Another indication is comments from a manager at JJ in another thread on Delta's cargo rates in the market. Delta doesn't price for profits, it prices for market share. So how can it make money?

As for the original poster, guess what - in July all flights will be full. No matter if it's from Spokane to Rio. A flight being full for less than three months of the year is not an indication of success.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
SESGDL
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 1:10 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 7):

No, because AA could easily feel another seven flights per week from MIA to Brazil, where yields are higher, as there are fewer connections and more O&D. If AA were to be given seven additional frequencies -- it would probably put them to use on a 757 flight from MIA to one or more of, among others, BSB, MAO, FOR, REC, SSA, BEL, CNF, and/or NAT. All of these cities would easily generate more than enough traffic to justify a few frequencies per week to MIA, for example, whereas none of them would work via ATL.

Possibly, but do you know? They haven't even all been tried from MIA, let alone ATL, so speculate all you want. MIA is not the only city that can support service to Latin America, contrary to some people's beliefs. If ATL to Brazil was so weak we wouldn't see 2 daily flights to GRU and GIG. All of this MIA-BS has gotten out of hand due to various people on Airliners.net, people seem to think that MIA to anywhere will work out, and this is simply not the case. If MIA-GIG could support another flight AA could easily reallocate a DFW-GRU or JFK-GRU frequency to MIA. It's obviously not beneficial for them. ATL-Latin America has worked out tremendously for DL, though it never fails for people to comment, "Well they'd be doing even better if it was from MIA." It's gotten to be ridiculous. The fact that DL started a 2nd daily ATL-GRU flight last year speaks volumes on how successful the route was, though all MAH4546 can say is that its yields were weak and flights to MIA were more profitable. Until some direct statistics are posted, which they won't be because they're unavailable, all of this route success and lack of success is hearsay.

Jeremy
 
jumbojet
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 1:13 am

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 9):
As for the original poster, guess what - in July all flights will be full. No matter if it's from Spokane to Rio. A flight being full for less than three months of the year is not an indication of success.

Three months? Its more then 3 months. I just brought up the summer months to make a point. I am sure you'll see flights from ATL to GIG on other months that are nearly sold out to capacity.
 
incitatus
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:08 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 10):
The fact that DL started a 2nd daily ATL-GRU flight last year speaks volumes on how successful the route was,

Sorry but it doesn't. The competition between US carriers in the market is all about marking territory. There is a limited number of frequencies available so part of the game is for every airline to use as many as possible to prevent their competitors from adding service. That's true for Delta, United and American.

Delta moving the service to JFK speaks volumes about its success.

2 X ATL-GRU will do fine during high season, as 2 X IAD-GRU on United will do too.

Quoting Jumbojet (Reply 11):
Three months? Its more then 3 months. I just brought up the summer months to make a point. I am sure you'll see flights from ATL to GIG on other months that are nearly sold out to capacity.

Yes. Two weeks before and after Christmas, and a blip around Carnival.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
MAH4546
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:18 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 10):
If MIA-GIG could support another flight AA could easily reallocate a DFW-GRU or JFK-GRU frequency to MIA

Actually, being done. When Delta applied for seven weekly ATL-GIG frequencies, AA competed with them, wanting the frequencies to offer MIA-GIG 2x daily year-round. Unable to get them, AA has comprised, and offers MIA-GIG 12x daily during winter. This year, AA was granted an exception that allowed them to offer an extra 5x weekly MIA-GIG flights. However, likely unable to get that next year, AA will reduce MIA-GRU to 18x weekly and DFW-GRU to 10x weekly in order to offer 12x weekly MIA-GIG service. That being said, MIA-GIG is the worst performing of AA's four Brazil routes, so it clearly does not get priority.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 10):
The fact that DL started a 2nd daily ATL-GRU flight last year speaks volumes on how successful the route was,

And the fact that it is being moved to New York City speaks volumes about how unsuccessful their attempt to offer two daily flights was. Now Delta is stuck in a situation where they have valuable US-Brazil slots, but don't have the right places to use them. Adding a second daily ATL-GRU flights added some cargo revenue, but hurt yields. Now they are entering the crowded JFK-GRU markets - they will be the sixth airline on the route - and it will be very difficult for them to gain a strong foothold. However, the seven weekly frequencies have too much long term value to throw them out, because as the market for Brazil-US grows, there might be a market in 4-5 years to open, for example, ATL-SSA. While it is likely that a new US-Brazil bilatteral will be signed within a year, Delta can't take that risk and give up seven frequencies.

As for how I know how the route performs, believe what you would like, I don't have to source anything nor proove it, and I'm not going to force anyone to believe me.
a.
 
rwsea
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:07 am

I wonder if DL could find success in moving their JFK-GRU flight to FLL if it doesn't work too well at JFK.

The O&D market from FLL is large, plus they would be able to offer connections themselves, and also with the assistance of other SkyTeam partners.
 
jumbojet
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:13 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 13):
they will be the sixth airline on the route - and it will be very difficult for them to gain a strong foothold.

You'd be surprised on the popularity regarding Delta airlines in the NY market. You start JFK to GRU and you'd get the folks who like to fly Delta boarding DL metal down to GRU
 
commavia
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:15 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 10):
Possibly, but do you know?

Do I know that MIA is a far, far more reliably profitable and high-yielding hub for flights to Brazil and throughout Latin America, based on the fact that generates vast quantities more of O&D, has dramatically more cultural and business ties to virtually every country in Latin America than ATL will ever have, and already has almost as many flights to Brazil as all other U.S. gateways combined?

Yes.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 10):
They haven't even all been tried from MIA, let alone ATL, so speculate all you want.

ATL is 21 weekly flights to Brazil, soon to be 14. MIA has -- by my count -- 49 weekly flights to Brazil. I don't need to speculate.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 10):
MIA is not the only city that can support service to Latin America, contrary to some people's beliefs. If ATL to Brazil was so weak we wouldn't see 2 daily flights to GRU and GIG.

That's funny; I don't recall anyone ever saying that MIA was the "only city that [could] support service to Latin America" or that Brazil was "so weak." DL has done well on their flights from ATL to Brazil (at least up until now). Good for them -- I commend them on building up their huge hub in ATL and linking it to one of the world's largest developing countries. What I think several (including myself) were implying was simply that no matter how well DL does to GRU, GIG, or anywhere else in Brazil or Latin America for that matter from ATL, it will always pale in comparison to MIA because, as has been stated repeatedly, MIA generates far more O&D, and has far more cultural and business ties to the region than ATL can ever dream of having.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 10):
If MIA-GIG could support another flight AA could easily reallocate a DFW-GRU or JFK-GRU frequency to MIA.

Well, as MAH said, they already tried, but lost to DL, who is now using their slot as filler because they have nowhere to put it.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 10):
ATL-Latin America has worked out tremendously for DL, though it never fails for people to comment, "Well they'd be doing even better if it was from MIA."

Again, nobody ever said that DL would "be doing even better if it was from MIA." In fact, since in MIA DL would have to go up against the juggernaut that is AA, they would almost certainly be doing worse. They have leveraged the world's largest hub, with inbound connections from basically every strip of concrete in North America, to build up flights to Brazil. Once again, good for them, I applaud and commend their efforts that have worked out "tremendously." Good job to DL. But it still doesn't change the fact that MIA will always be the hub of the Americas, not ATL.
 
LipeGIG
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 8:08 am

Quoting AF022 (Reply 3):
Yields on most GIG routes are lousy. Anyone can fill a long-haul flight to GIG - the key is making it profitable

Probably you are looking for 3 years ago not for now. All airlines flying to GIG nowadays seems to be profitable, including DL as per their Latin American Director Words, Mr. Didier ".. The flight is surprising us MAINLY with the HUGE demand for Business Class... ".

Quoting Jumbojet (Thread starter):
Only because i have nothing else better to do with my time, I was checking out DL's seat availability from ATL to GIG and noticed that flights well into June and July are nearly sold out already

I get some info: Yesterday (saturday) Brazil-ATL flights: Both flights from São Paulo get 23 pax out from 72 on C, GIG 20 out of 30. I don't know if it's a money maker, but it seems to be very well. I fly this flight on october, the first month, with more than 65% on Y and almost 100% on Business. My brother get more than 8 times (he works for Coca-Cola in Brazil), and many times people from Coca-Cola face some hard time to get C tickets for this flight. Source: Get by pax that travell yesterday on C and asked about the pax numbers!

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 9):
The case of ATL-GIG is not so clear cut but I've heard from a source too familiar with the market that the flight will ultimately be discontinued

I believe if the flight get so bad to be discontinued, DL will drop ATL-GIG and not one ATL-GRU (the rich and profitable city!), don't you think ? Why keep a bad flight ? (And i remember a DL statement that 25% of all pax to ATL come from Rio, even DL does not offer connection Rio-São Paulo in the past as well as nowadays)

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 4):
Who's to say that ATL-GIG is a big moneymaker or not? Not even DL employees have privy to that information, so I'd like to know why you always seem to know the profitability of routes

Agree 100%

Quoting BSBIsland (Reply 6):
Of course one would agree that Rio de Janeiro is a strong leisure destination, but also a 10 million inhabitants city with a considerable amount of Headquarters of companies and so business traffic. Atlanta-Brazil routes are strong with business pax (I believe).

You're 100% right. DL proves and seems to be very happy with that.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 13):
That being said, MIA-GIG is the worst performing of AA's four Brazil routes, so it clearly does not get priority.

And why every year they took frequencies from DFW and GRU-MIA to fly GIG-MIA ? Better to use on GRU don't you think ?
Also, AA has just put the 5x additional flights GIG-MIA on the system for the end of this year, seems that they love unprofitable markets!
For your info, AA Brazil always says the worst route is the daily light GRU-MIA. Also, if you receive the Net Savings from AA, you will realize that they never offer Rio, just São Paulo (due to the larger number of seats). Last week you could get MIA-GRU-MIA for just US$ 729 while MIA-GIG-MIA is never lower than US$ 1,000. Why special fares to GRU and not to GIG ?
I fly 10 to 15 times per year to Miami and New York on both Y and C, and it's hard to obtain good deals from GIG (so some times i fly GRU-MIA due to the LACK of seats at GIG).

Gentleman, GIG is under served, it's clear that the little flights get profitability and again, Rio is not São Paulo (who get the São Paulo traffic as well as the entire domestic connections except for 10 to 20% who come to GIG due to better time options), but it grows from 5 million to 9.3 million in 2 years (january was almost 940,000 pax).

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
MAH4546
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 8:51 am

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 17):

And why every year they took frequencies from DFW and GRU-MIA to fly GIG-MIA ? Better to use on GRU don't you think ?



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 17):
Also, AA has just put the 5x additional flights GIG-MIA on the system for the end of this year, seems that they love unprofitable
markets!

Since when does "worst performing" mean "unprofitable"? I never said AA loses money on MIA-GIG. The yields on the route are amazing during the winter, but very weak during the summer. Just because it makes money doesn't mean it can't be the worst performing route out of a grand total of four.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 17):
For your info, AA Brazil always says the worst route is the daily light GRU-MIA.

No, that is not a route, that is a flight, AA 929/930. The passenger yields on it are weak, but it is a money maker because of cargo revenue. Passengers are an after thought on that particular flight, which was introduced to increase plane utilization while taking advantage of strong cargo revenue between the US and Brazil. It also allows AA to sell heavily discounted fares and improve the yields on the redeye services, providing additional benefit to all of AA's redeye Brazil flights, including MIA-GIG.
a.
 
LipeGIG
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 9:12 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 18):
yields on the route are amazing during the winter, but very weak during the summer

So why AA asked for more 7 frequencies, just to block DL attempt to fly ATL-GIG ? Seems that even with 3 daily flights to GIG during the winter, AA get happy yields as they announce the next winter flights very early.
Do you think AA could ask again for DOT to increase GIG-MIA even with DL service ?

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 18):
No, that is not a route, that is a flight, AA 929/930.

My mistake, thanks for the "friendly" and rude correction.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
MAH4546
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 9:15 am

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 19):
So why AA asked for more 7 frequencies, just to block DL attempt to fly ATL-GIG ?

That probably was a huge part of the reason. AA enjoyed a monopoly on USA-Rio de Janeiro routes and would obviously have liked to keep it. And, like I said, AA's Rio flights are still profitable, they just are not as profitable as any of their three GRU routes.
a.
 
aircanada014
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 9:24 am

I like to see AA take on DL for South America routes, I want AA to win.  Smile
 
SESGDL
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 10:16 am

Quoting AirCanada014 (Reply 21):
I like to see AA take on DL for South America routes, I want AA to win. Smile

Why?
 
jrlander
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 10:18 am

There was talk on this thread about DL inking a codeshare agreement with GOL- using GIG as a transfer point. Such an agreement would certainly help the GIG operation.

But I don't see DL doing a second ATL-GIG- I think instead you might see a JFK-GIG route if they could get the lots and equipment. With the recent hub building up JFK- I expect to see more Latin American flights.
 
BigGSFO
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 10:28 am

Quoting Jrlander (Reply 23):
I think instead you might see a JFK-GIG route i

This route never seems to last. AA used to operate it, then pulled the non-stop and now operates it via GRU. I think RG did JFK-GIG too. CO tags GIG from their IAH/EWR-GRU flight. Not doubting DL could make a run for it, but it would appear there just isn't the demand for a non-stop New York-Rio flight anymore.
 
RobertS975
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 10:38 am

A little off the subject, but could somebody please explain why the US and Brazil require visas from each other's citizens while all other SA countries, for the most part, can travel to/from with just a passport?
 
LipeGIG
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 10:39 am

Quoting Jrlander (Reply 23):
But I don't see DL doing a second ATL-GIG- I think instead you might see a JFK-GIG route if they could get the lots and equipment. With the recent hub building up JFK- I expect to see more Latin American flights

I have the same idea. I expect in the near future they change for JFK-GIG or even a JFK-GRU-GIG.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
worldtraveler
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 10:39 am

Brazil is a limited access market. DL has a total of 21 weekly frequencies to Brazil, 7 of which were reallocated to DL by the DOT from UA at DL's request because UA has a number of unused but allocated frequencies. Although UA is an incumbent carrier, like AA, because of its purchase of grandfathered access, the DOT takes the position that allocated access in restricted access markets must be used or it could be reallocated to another carrier. CO and DL both used the same technique to gain access to 7 weekly ATL-Argentina frequencies which were awarded to CO for its new EWR-IAH-EZE route.

DL just gained its 3 route (7 more weekly frequencies) necessary to fund ATLGIG last year. Even though DL could possibly go after additional unused UA slots to Brazil, DL has enough to build its Brazil network for the time being. The JFKGRU flight was transferred from the ATL slots with the approval of the DOT because the DOT has repeatedly taken the position that carriers are free to move their slots between any of their approved gateways. DL is upgrading the ATLGRU route to a 764 (based on rumor) because they obviously are not able to accommodate all of the traffic they generate on a single 763 and don't have any more frequencies available.

It will be possible to know roughly how profitable DL's ATLGIG flight is before long. US airlines are required to report enough data to the DOT for competitors and the gov't to tell how much revenue a route is generating. With cost information by region that must also be provided, it is not hard to figure whether a route is profitable or not. Based on DOT provided info, DL's Brazil routes are estimated to have been profitable. ATL is a strong and growing gateway to all of Latin America and it is very likely that DL is pulling significant traffic off of AA's flights since the only Rio market that DL doesn't have as good a chance as AA of capturing is the MIA market. GRU is much more competitively served by 4 carriers from a number of gateways by both US and Brazilian carriers. It is very likely DL will make a profit if they are not already. As for cargo, every carrier contends that competitors are pricing their product to gain market share rather than for profits so I wouldn't take TAM's comments too seriously, esp. since DL is set to break up the AA-JJ stranglehold at JFK.
 
hoya
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 10:46 am

Maybe slightly off-topic, but why is UA discontinuing its second daily IAD-GRU and daily ORD-EZE (both at the end of March)? Is it because these routes perform poorly over the northern summer, or is UA just better off allocating those 767s to more profitable European routes? Also, is UA at risk at losing the frequencies to Brazil and Argentina, and therefore creating an opportunity for DL and others to acquire those frequencies?
Hoya Saxa!!
 
HALFA
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RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 10:47 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 10):
MIA is not the only city that can support service to Latin America, contrary to some people's beliefs

I agree. It was great to see LAN Peru entering the LAX-GIG market with a one stop flight in Lima. Fares last week from both SFO and LAX were US$499.00 roundtrip. I haven't seen flights to Rio this cheap in 4 years, and I watch the fares on a daily basis.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 13):
As for how I know how the route performs, believe what you would like, I don't have to source anything nor proove it, and I'm not going to force anyone to believe me.

For that matter, none of us on here MUST provide sources when we state our opinions as fact, but when you back up your statements with reliable sources, they become much more believable.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 17):
Also, AA has just put the 5x additional flights GIG-MIA on the system for the end of this year, seems that they love unprofitable markets!

 Smile

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 17):
Gentleman, GIG is under served, it's clear that the little flights get profitability

I agree completely. Felipe, as you know, I am a frequent visitor to your city and ticket prices to GIG from the US are very expensive compared to comparable distances to Europe and Asia, and every time I fly to GIG, the flights are full.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 18):
It also allows AA to sell heavily discounted fares and improve the yields on the redeye services

Please direct me to the website where AA is selling "heavily discounted fares" to GIG. I must have missed it. I've been monitoring fares from MIA and other cities to GIG for the past 4 years and have NEVER seen AA offer heavily discounted fares to GIG. I receive both AA and UA weekly airfare emails and fares to GIG are generally always expensive.

Quoting AF022 (Reply 3):
Yields on most GIG routes are lousy.

Yes, I remember you said the same thing a few months ago. Sources please.

Aloha,
HALFA
Hawaiian Airlines Since 1929...........
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2277
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 10:54 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 27):
and it is very likely that DL is pulling significant traffic off of AA's flights

Doubtful. AA's flights to Brazil are extremely profitable and could sustain themselves on O&D alone. Nonetheless, there is no doubt with the growing US-Brazil traffic, limited competition and powerhouse hub in ATL that DL too will reap a profit. But I doubt it will be at the expense of AA.
 
worldtraveler
Posts: 3417
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2003 6:18 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 10:55 am

Hoya,
technically the DOT considers a route abandoned if it is not served for 90 days but in practice they require it to have been abandoned for much longer. The frequencies they lost to DL had not been used for more than three years. UA probably knows they can get by with operating half of their few remaining S. American routes on a partial year basis because the DOT is very reluctant to strip the assets from any airline. Eventually UA will merge with someone that can serve S. America profitably on a year round basis but by the point Brazil and Argentina will offer the same open skies that other S. American countries like Chile offer.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:25 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 27):
ATL is a strong and growing gateway to all of Latin America and it is very likely that DL is pulling significant traffic off of AA's flights since the only Rio market that DL doesn't have as good a chance as AA of capturing is the MIA market.

As BigGSFO said, it's doubtful. DL is capturing most connecting traffic over ATL to get to GIG. Good for them. Good to see them expanding their markets from the world's largest hub. However, making a leap from that to the presumption that it is "very likely" that DL is "pulling significant traffic off of AA's flights" is a very big stretch. First off, AA has a far more established business base at both ends of the market -- both in Rio and in the U.S. -- and has far, far more cultural and business links in the region, not least of which is AA's huge market penetration with AAdvantage, and the fact that AA has much more name recognition. Secondly, and most importantly, MIA generates so much O&D alone that incoming connections that ATL may be capturing are probably more than made up for. AA can still generate a huge number of connections from decades-old FF customers from throughout the U.S., which is augmented by huge cargo demand and the O&D that MIA alone generates. MIA probably generates more O&D in a few months than ATL does for the entire year.
 
jumbojet
Topic Author
Posts: 2957
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:01 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:27 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
Delta's ATL-GIG flight, despite a strong start this past October, barely makes money. Profitable,

if its profitable and making money, even if its a little, then add capacity either with more flights or with the 764. A few bucks more is better then nothing at all
 
B4REAL
Posts: 2615
Joined: Sun Aug 10, 2003 5:53 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:07 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 13):
Now Delta is stuck in a situation where they have valuable US-Brazil slots, but don't have the right places to use them.

With that being said, strictly in your opinion, what would you think of DL running BOS-GRU or BOS-GRU-GIG? Boston has a strong Brazilian population, respectable presence for limited feed and FF base, and there is no competition on the route?
B4REAL, spelled like it sounds & @RickVanover on Twitter
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26254
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:10 pm

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 24):
This route never seems to last. SA)">AA used to operate it, then pulled the non-stop and now operates it via GRU. I think RG did JFK-GIG too. SA)">CO tags GIG from their IAH/EWR-GRU flight. Not doubting SA)">DL could make a run for it, but it would appear there just isn't the demand for a non-stop New York-Rio flight anymore.

SA)">CO also tried their hand at EWR-GIG non-stop, but it was short lived. Varig tried JFK-GIG twice in the early 2000s.

Quoting RobertS975 (Reply 25):
A little off the subject, but could somebody please explain why the US and Brazil require visas from each other's citizens while all other SA countries, for the most part, can travel to/from with just a passport?

South Americans of every nationality, IIRC, need a Visa to visit the United States. Brazil excercises reprocity and requires Americans to get Visas, but those restrictions are expected to be eased soon in an effort to boost tourism.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 27):
since SA)">DL is set to break up the SA)">AA-JJ stranglehold at JFK.

What strangehold? Five airlines already fly 32 flights a week between New York City and Brazil, and SA)">AA/JJ only fly eleven of them.

Quoting Hoya (Reply 28):
Maybe slightly off-topic, but why is UA discontinuing its second daily IAD-GRU and daily ORD-EZE (both at the end of March)? Is it because these routes perform poorly over the northern summer, or is UA just better off allocating those 767s to more profitable European routes?

Demand is very weak during the summer to support a double-daily frequency on IAD-GRU. In addition, traffic during the summer months to Buenos Aires falls off significantly outside of it's primary markets - Florida and New York - as winter is tourist season for the region. The Chicago region is poorly postioned geographically to capture enough connecting traffic to make it work during the off season, unlike Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston.

Quoting HALFA (Reply 29):
It was great to see LAN Peru entering the LAX-GIG market with a one stop flight in Lima.

They haven't entered the market. They simply extended existing LAX-LIM flights to GRU.

Quoting HALFA (Reply 29):
Please direct me to the website where SA)">AA is selling "heavily discounted fares" to GIG.

If you would please re-read, I said that the daylight MIA-GRU flight is where you can get heavily discounted fares, which is true. You can usually find bargains on the daylight flight outside of the busiest peak travel periods.

Quoting Jumbojet (Reply 33):
if its profitable and making money, even if its a little, then add capacity either with more flights or with the 764. A few bucks more is better then nothing at all

No, that isn't how airlines make money. You want to supply just the right amount of seats to maximize your profit. Adding more flights or more seats will potentially hurt a flight's yields because you are adding more supply to the market and you go from one profitable flight to two money-losing flights.

Quoting B4real (Reply 34):
With that being said, strictly in your opinion, what would you think of DL running BOS-GRU or BOS-GRU-GIG? Boston has a strong Brazilian population, respectable presence for limited feed and FF base, and there is no competition on the route?

Boston does indeed have a huge Brazilian population. The morning BOS-MIA flight on AA often gets as many as 40-45 passengers connecting from Brazil during peak periods. However, the ties don't extend past cultural, and that doesn't support a market. There are virtually no business ties to speak of. For the same reason that TAP does not fly BOS-LIS, and the route is instead handled by holiday airline SATA, there is no market for a regular service airline to profitably serve Boston-Brazil.

If there existed a Brazilian holiday airline - such as we see with Air Transat, SATA, or LTU - there is definitley potential because they could operate high-density configurations at limited frequency profitably, as well as selling a large number of seats through tour operators.

[Edited 2006-03-14 04:14:13]
a.
 
B4REAL
Posts: 2615
Joined: Sun Aug 10, 2003 5:53 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:16 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 35):
Boston does indeed have a huge Brazilian population. The morning BOS-MIA flight on AA often gets as many as 40-45 passengers connecting from Brazil during peak periods. However, the ties don't extend past cultural, and that doesn't support a market. There are virtually no business ties to speak of. For the same reason that TAP does not fly BOS-LIS, and the route is instead handled by holiday airline SATA, there is no market for a regular service airline to profitably serve Boston-Brazil.

If there existed a Brazilian holiday airline - such as we see with Air Transat, SATA, or LTU - there is definitley potential because they could operate high-density configurations at limited frequency profitably, as well as selling a large number of seats through tour operators.

Well put. Thank you. My thought simply was there would be large number of family/relative passenger traffic, possibly some cargo (not a strong point for DL), and limited business. You summed it up well.
B4REAL, spelled like it sounds & @RickVanover on Twitter
 
bsbisland
Posts: 351
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:45 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:39 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 35):
CO also tried their hand at EWR-GIG non-stop, but it was short lived. Varig tried JFK-GIG twice in the early 2000s.

No, those flights ended in 1999, in the devaluation of Real in January 1999, when Brazilian traffic to the USA dropped significantly... Varig, American and Continental had nonstop services Rio-NYC and all dropped because of that. Varig and American served this routes for years. I used to have "pockets timetable" from 1995, 1997 and 1999 and clearly remember those flights... Varig flew for years POA-GIG-JFK on a DC-10 and later with the B767-300.
 
worldtraveler
Posts: 3417
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2003 6:18 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:47 pm

Here are the facts from DOT information:

ATLGIG is too new to have current DOT data but some comparisons can be made between AA’s MIA and DL’s ATLGRU which have both been operated for at least 10 years.

First, the ATLGRU local market is slightly less than one-fourth the size of MIAGRU, the largest US-Brazil market. In fact, ATLGRU is slightly larger than IAHGRU. JFK and LAX are second and third largest but the gaps in market size are fairly large between the largest 3. DFWGRU is almost as large as LAXGRU while ATLGRU is only about 20% smaller than DFW.

Second, AA does not carry predominantly local passengers on its MIA-Brazil flights. Local passengers are only 38% of GRUMIA and 25% of GIGMIA. (ATLGRU is 14% local for DL. GRUJFK for AA is the most local Brazilian market at 56% with another 15% going to GIG.

Third, AA’s top O&D on MIAGRU are MCO, ORD, BOS, and LAX. DL’s top O&Ds on ATLGRU are NRT, MCO, LAX, and CVG. DL and AA do overlap on some O&Ds which means DL is very much a competitive force for AA in the Brazil market – and gains average fares that are fairly comparable to AA’s.

Fourth, the BOSGRU market is slightly larger than ATLGRU but, because there are very limited logical connection capabilities out of BOS, the market is not large enough to support a nonstop even when combined with BOSGIG. BOSGRU (industry market size) plus BOSGIG is only about the size of MIAGIG; remember that the MIAGIG O&D is only 25% of the MIAGIG leg for AA, meaning AA needs connections to fill 75% of the plane.

Finally, there are 4 scheduled operating carriers in JFKGRU with at least weekly service sometime during the next six months – AA, RG, JJ, and DL. DL becomes only the second US carrier in the market since the rest of the US/Brazilian frequencies are codeshare frequencies. JAL also operates fifth freedom service. I did not include EWR in my original post; CO operates the smallest aircraft with 762s.

My reference to the AA/JJ “monopoly” is admittedly something of a stretch, but only a little. No other US airline builds alliances with foreign airlines that have as an advantaged of a position in the market as AA does, but that is a discussion for another post.

Bottom line is that it is very likely that ATLGIG will do well for DL since it is only the second US-GIG route. Contrary to popular thinking, ATL is a top market to Brazil and DL is a serious competitor, being second in the overall market and generating average fares competitive with AA as the entrenched carrier. Finally, DL does bump into AA on some of the top O&Ds which means that DL is taking revenue from AA unless the market is stimulated. Given that average fares to S. America are relatively high and that DL has been very effective in taking Latin American business from UA and limiting CO’s growth in deep S. America, DL has a good chance of making money and becoming a significant thorn in AA’s side, further validating that DL’s restructuring plan is sound.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26254
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Wed Mar 15, 2006 12:55 am

Quoting BSBIsland (Reply 37):
No, those flights ended in 1999, in the devaluation of Real in January 1999, when Brazilian traffic to the USA dropped significantly... Varig, American and Continental had nonstop services Rio-NYC and all dropped because of that. Varig and American served this routes for years. I used to have "pockets timetable" from 1995, 1997 and 1999 and clearly remember those flights... Varig flew for years POA-GIG-JFK on a DC-10 and later with the B767-300.

Varig re-introduced JFK-GIG flights during the early 2000s as well, both attempts were short lived.
a.
 
LipeGIG
Posts: 5063
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 7:33 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Wed Mar 15, 2006 1:58 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 39):
Varig re-introduced JFK-GIG flights during the early 2000s as well, both attempts were short lived.

In 1997, 930,000 brazilians visited the US. Last year this number was 485,300. It's clear that after the devaluation like BSBIsland said (when US$ 1 come from 0,81 to 2,25) the demand face a strong drop. Services from GIG, MAO, BEL and others has been dropped in favor of GRU. At the current market levels, it's expected that the number of brazilians visiting the US exceeds 1,000,000 in 2008.
Numbers given by Jussara Haddad, organizer of Visit US, a forum at both Rio and São Paulo today and tomorow that is trying to sell US as a Destination for Brazilians.
Mark, nowadays Rio is not the same city of 1999/2001, better and with a diversified activity due to the oil boom of 2001/2002 (Rio alone is responsible for almost 1,8 million crude oil barrels/day)

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 35):
If there existed a Brazilian holiday airline - such as we see with Air Transat, SATA, or LTU - there is definitley potential because they could operate high-density configurations at limited frequency profitably, as well as selling a large number of seats through tour operators

This airline exists: called "BRA" and they keep a 767-300ER on a full Y configuration. But nowadays they run only flights to Europe with this plane (LIS and MAD are their core destinations) . BRA keeps 14 frequencies Brazil-Madrid as per CERNAI's (Brazilian DOT) info.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 35):
What strangehold? Five airlines already fly 32 flights a week between New York City and Brazil, and SA)">AA/JJ only fly eleven of them.

Tam confirmed today they will go daily on JFK-GRU effective May, 30.

Quoting HALFA (Reply 29):

Hi Halfa, AA just show an offer on it's today's net SAAver, a DFW-GRU-DFW flight for just US$ 690,00. It's funny how almost every week they bring us special fares for GRU and never to GIG. Aloha!

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 38):

Thanks, it confirms that O&D to MIA is not so important even for GRU. And one fact: DOT cannot obtain data from the right origin in Brazil, GRU is not only São Paulo.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
SESGDL
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:05 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 32):
MIA probably generates more O&D in a few months than ATL does for the entire year.

I hope you mean to Latin America because if you're speaking overall, ATL has roughly 30 million O&D passengers a year, with the MIA/FLL area having about 45 million.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 30):
AA's flights to Brazil are extremely profitable and could sustain themselves on O&D alone.

No they couldn't. People who say this are misinformed. It is unlikely that airlines could sustain any flights from the US to deep South America without connections. Simply fly on a flight from anywhere North of MIA on AA to MIA and notice the number of connecting passengers. Despite MIA's strong Latin American O&D traffic, more than 50% of passengers flying AA at MIA are connecting. And like WorldTraveler mentioned, the market from ATL-Brazil based on O&D is not as weak as everyone makes it seem, coupled with DL's thousands of daily connecting passengers, it makes for a strong market. From simply flying AA to MIA from MSP there were more than 20 people headed to Brazil on that flight alone.

Jeremy
 
SeeTheWorld
Posts: 1090
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2005 2:46 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:22 am

WorldTraveler - That's a pretty good synopsis of the DOT data, and it was very useful.

One thing to keep in mind about the DOT data is that it does not include foreign flag carrier-only passengers. In other words, if a passenger travels to the U.S. only on a foreign carrier, i.e. they don't connect to a U.S. carrier on any portion of their journey, that passenger will not be in the DOT data. Having said that, any U.S. airport with nonstop foreign flag service (from Brazil), i.e. JFK, MIA, LAX will be significantly understated in its O&D passenger numbers as a portion of those passengers will be local or behind GRU (in Brazil and SA) and therefore not included.

Also, while ATL-GRU may be larger than IAH-GRU, that is likely to change once we get the new O&Ds with CO nonstop. ATL's O&D to GRU grew significantly once DL began service, and IAH's will also.
 
incitatus
Posts: 3380
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:25 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 38):
ATLGIG is too new to have current DOT data but some comparisons can be made between AA's MIA and DL's ATLGRU which have both been operated for at least 10 years.



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 38):
Third, AA's top O&D on MIAGRU are MCO, ORD, BOS, and LAX. DL's top O&Ds on ATLGRU are NRT, MCO, LAX, and CVG.

Traffic to Sao Paulo is different from traffic to Rio. Anybody slightly familiar with Brazil can tell that Japan-Rio traffic is tiny compared to Japan-SaoPaulo traffic. A flight from the US to Rio will have a lot of passengers starting in Houston and Dallas working with oil companies and their suppliers. There is also a fair amount of corporate traffic originating in the NY area. And the Disney tourists - there is plenty of them. They will gladly take Delta for a deal and the high load factors will give everyone a good feeling.

I wonder what Delta plans to do with their business class with United announcing completely revamped business and first class cabins. American made a similar announcement months ago. Will Delta have to make do with new seat covers? This won't be a problem in flights to some obscure European destinations, but to some competitive markets like Brazil.

http://www.united.com/press/detail/0,6862,53803,00.html

http://www.aa.com/content/amrcorp/pr...Releases/2006_03/09_bizclass.jhtml
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2277
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:27 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 41):
No they couldn't.

You are relying only on passenger loads, and not yields as well as neglecting the cargo component. I stand by my point that the flights could probably sustain themselves.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 41):
And like WorldTraveler mentioned, the market from ATL-Brazil based on O&D is not as weak as everyone makes it seem, coupled with DL's thousands of daily connecting passengers, it makes for a strong market.

I agree 1000%. As I mentioned in an earlier post, DL will be successful in this market in both loads and yields. But there appears to be this implication in this thread trying to convince us all that it will be at the expense of AA, which I simply do not see happening.

There is enough room in the market for both to compete and generate profits. GRU is growing market and GIG is underserved. I would guess DL would probably be sending 777's ATL-GRU if they weren't already utilized on other routes.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26254
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Wed Mar 15, 2006 3:01 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 38):

First, the ATLGRU local market is slightly less than one-fourth the size of MIAGRU, the largest US-Brazil market. In fact, ATLGRU is slightly larger than IAHGRU. JFK and LAX are second and third largest but the gaps in market size are fairly large between the largest 3. DFWGRU is almost as large as LAXGRU while ATLGRU is only about 20% smaller than DFW.

While excellent data, it says little about the overall market, since it doesnt include passengers flying foreign carriers. Foreign airlines fly 26 of the 46 weekly flights between Miami and Sao Paulo, not to mention passengers who connect in CCS, BOG, PTY, etc. Foreign airlines also operate all of flights between LAX and GRU and 18 of the 25 weekly JFK-GRU flights. That understates the size of these markets, and over-states the size of DFW/ATL/IAH-GRU, where there are no international carriers offering non-stops.
a.
 
HALFA
Posts: 1068
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2004 8:24 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Wed Mar 15, 2006 4:39 am

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 40):
Hi Halfa, AA just show an offer on it's today's net SAAver, a DFW-GRU-DFW flight for just US$ 690,00. It's funny how almost every week they bring us special fares for GRU and never to GIG. Aloha!

Felipe,
$690.00 DFW-GRU-DFW is still what I would consider expensive compared to flights of similar distance. Two weeks ago, I flew with US Air from LAX-PHL-MAD-PHL-LAS and paid only US$310.00+Tax Return. Often times we here in Hawaii can fly to Asia for under $500.00 return. I see fare sales all the time from the US West Coast to Europe for as little as $269.00 Return, but in the past 3 years, I never see fares to GRU/GIG for under $500.00 until LAN's fare sale last week. Fares have hovered in the $900-$1000.00 range from LAX to both GRU/GIG for a long time.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 35):
If you would please re-read, I said that the daylight MIA-GRU flight is where you can get heavily discounted fares, which is true.

My bad, props to you for sayng "please"!

Aloha,
HALFA
Hawaiian Airlines Since 1929...........
 
worldtraveler
Posts: 3417
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2003 6:18 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:00 am

The reason airlines enjoy flying to South America is because the yields are much better than they are to Europe. The South American market is much smaller and cannot be stimulated like the European market so there is no incentive to lower fares because you cannot bring in enough passengers to make up for the lost revenue. South American flights are most costly to operate at least from an asset utilization perspective because they cannot be operated with 1 aircraft per day as can be done with European flights.

I am aware that DOT data does not have all foreign carriers in them and that is a drawback. However, no other industry has even that much data about competitors so to be able to have that much information is fairly significant. Yes, the total market size is affected but it is the best data available and it is not available to airlines in most countries. Like any data, it has to be used with the appropriate caveats. It is much more accurate than the guessing and postulations that are frequently seen on this board. MAH, you need to make sure you are counting codeshare flights as marketing and not operating flights.

See,
I’m not sure I understand your statement about CO’s IAH flights. CO has operated IAH-GRU for a number of years; not sure how many but it is long enough for the flight to have stabilized. The fact that CO uses a 764 on IAH-GRU and tags it on to GIG says that CO doesn’t get the GIG business other carriers do and relies on more western destinations to fill its Brazil flights (outside of EWR) than do AA or DL which is supported by DOT data.

[Edited 2006-03-14 22:01:41]
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26254
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:18 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 47):
MAH, you need to make sure you are counting codeshare flights as marketing and not operating flights.

Are you referring to my data on number of weekly flights? I am not.

JFK-GRU:
American: 7x
TAM: 4x (soon 7x)
Varig: 11x*
JAL: 3x
Delta: 7x (eff. July)
TOTAL: 35x

MIA-GRU:
American: 21x
TAM: 13x (+ a 1x weekly flight via Salavador/SSA)
Varig: 13x*
TOTAL: 47x (48x)

Varig's additional MIA/JFK flights operate during peak periods: November-March and June-August.
a.
 
SeeTheWorld
Posts: 1090
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2005 2:46 am

RE: Delta Could Use 2nd Daily ATL To Rio Flight

Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:28 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 47):
I am aware that DOT data does not have all foreign carriers in them and that is a drawback. However, no other industry has even that much data about competitors so to be able to have that much information is fairly significant. Yes, the total market size is affected but it is the best data available and it is not available to airlines in most countries. Like any data, it has to be used with the appropriate caveats. It is much more accurate than the guessing and postulations that are frequently seen on this board. MAH, you need to make sure you are counting codeshare flights as marketing and not operating flights.

It is the best data that are available, but there are some fairly good ways to make foreign flag carrier adjustments, not the least being by examining the T100 Onboard data and making an estimate as to the percent local onboard and adjusting from there. That's the quick and dirty.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 47):
See,
I’m not sure I understand your statement about CO’s IAH flights. CO has operated IAH-GRU for a number of years; not sure how many but it is long enough for the flight to have stabilized. The fact that CO uses a 764 on IAH-GRU and tags it on to GIG says that CO doesn’t get the GIG business other carriers do and relies on more western destinations to fill its Brazil flights (outside of EWR) than do AA or DL which is supported by DOT data.

I messed up. I had EZE on the brain when I typed that response rather than GRU. I expect that the IAH-EZE local market will surpass ATL-EZE once the new numbers come from DOT.

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