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remcor
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Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sat Mar 25, 2006 4:17 pm

Scott Hamilton writes that even with a 7 year head start and fairly strong sales, a 90-100 seat Boeing could seriously hurt Embraer, with its lack of a common larger airframe.

http://www.leeham.net/filelib/ScottsColumn032106.pdf

Here's my question, what do you think the odds are that Boeing will really launch a 90-100 seat aircraft? Apparently they're talking about a 6-abreast (perhaps 7 abreast with 2 aisles!) airframe. With 90 seats that's only 15 rows, which seems like a pretty fat, stubby airframe that wouldn't be as aerodynamically efficient as its 4-abreast rivals.

I hope they don't launch it, but I'm biased, I want the little guy Embraer to win out.

[Edited 2006-03-25 08:18:56]
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sat Mar 25, 2006 4:19 pm

I don't see it.

Unless Boeing really goes with 2 fuselage cross sections, and an engine family with a huge range in thrusts, as well as 3 wings, it would be tough for the 737RS to cover 90 seat short range products all the way through 225 757 class models and not be inefficient at just about every task compared to more tailored designs.
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ikramerica
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sat Mar 25, 2006 4:23 pm

That said, there are 450+ 735/6 aircraft in the world, and if Boeing sees 350 of them being replaced with Boeing aircraft if they offer good enough economics, there is likely a business case for doing what I said is probably wasteful.

Stranger things have happened.
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remcor
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sat Mar 25, 2006 4:34 pm

But as Scott Hamilton points out, the 736/A318 are loss making aircraft, and probably weren't intended to make a profit alone per-se, but instead were created to make the entire 737 line broader and more attractive.

How that kind of strategy will pan out in the new design, I dunno. Perhaps Boeing feels that offering such a seating range will just make their entire line that much sweeter smelling... however they are treading into unfamiliar territory. Will they really want to take the risk if Airbus doesn't?
 
DLKAPA
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sat Mar 25, 2006 4:42 pm

Historically speaking, Shrunken aircraft have always had much higher CASM's than extended aircraft of the same capacity. Embraer has the upper hand here.
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ikramerica
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sat Mar 25, 2006 4:55 pm

Quoting Remcor (Reply 3):
But as Scott Hamilton points out, the 736/A318 are loss making aircraft, and probably weren't intended to make a profit alone per-se, but instead were created to make the entire 737 line broader and more attractive.

That's my point. They would be dumb to do it just to steal orders if it impacted the performance of the bigger jets.

But the 735 was NOT a loss leader, and sold 380 frames. It's almost like the 736 was there to see if 735 carriers would bite and add a few when they went NG, but the economics weren't there. CO decided that the minimum economical NG was the 73G, as did WN, and for CO, they gave up on the 73G and won't buy any more, realizing even it was too wide for some of it's routes, and the 738 was an even better plane for the longer range routes the 73G shines on.

The 737RS would need to provide BETTER than 735 economics and can't have the bloated wingspan of the 736/G, otherwise it won't work. But if Boeing does make it a really viable product, then it will work well, just like the 735 does. If it also means the 733/G replacement is better and has a shorter wing, all the better. But that means the 738/9 replacement needs a different length wing than the 732/3/5/6/G replacement, and then the 738/9ER/752 replacement would need another wing altogether, and then there's the matter of an engine family with large thrust range and multiple fan/nacel sizes, which adds to R&D cost and cuts down on the commonality benefit along the 737RS range. To do it right, Boeing has to really commit to the idea.

See what I'm saying?

I both think it's a dumb idea or a good idea. It depends on the approach Boeing takes and the commitment to making it a good product, not just an available one...
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HS748
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:02 pm

Quoting Remcor (Thread starter):
Scott Hamilton writes that even with a 7 year head start and fairly strong sales, a 90-100 seat Boeing could seriously hurt Embraer

So what was the 717 then (apart from a complete failure)?
 
lehpron
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:49 pm

Tell me if you see a difference between these two:

Quoting Remcor (Thread starter):
Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

or

Quoting Remcor (Thread starter):
Could Boeing 737RS Threaten Embraer?

Aside from that, I still wonder why Boeing bothers to forecast regionals in their market outlook when they are not even offering aircraft for that segment? Unless more than 3 derivatives were offered at launch, at this point, I see it is difficult to reach accross the 90 through 200 seat range. Even if it were designed with minimal change between derivatives except for strengthening certain stress parts, there will be a weight issue for the tiny and the massive verison of 737RS
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Oykie
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:54 pm

The market forecast for that size over the next 20 years are 1000 planes. I think Boeing will look into it. But as Ikramerica points out they need two fuslage cross sections to be able to compete.
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Alessandro
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sat Mar 25, 2006 9:27 pm

I doubt Boeing with their labor cost could compete with Embraer, I see the B717 as an example of this.
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Devilfish
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:58 am

Quoting Remcor (Thread starter):
what do you think the odds are that Boeing will really launch a 90-100 seat aircraft?



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
Unless Boeing really goes with 2 fuselage cross sections, and an engine family with a huge range in thrusts,



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
That said, there are 450+ 735/6 aircraft in the world, and if Boeing sees 350 of them being replaced with Boeing aircraft if they offer good enough economics, there is likely a business case for doing what I said is probably wasteful.



Quoting OyKIE (Reply 8):
The market forecast for that size over the next 20 years are 1000 planes. I think Boeing will look into it.

As OyKie pointed out in the "C" Series thread, Bombardier Plans ‘Son Of C Series’ (by 777ER Mar 21 2006 in Civil Aviation)#41
Boeing is splitting the RS into two categories to also cover the 90-100 seat capacity. And given that both the A318 and B736 are losing propositions, the E-Jets starting to get long in the tooth by that time, and the size of the market which would need to be replaced as noted in the above posts, then that's all the more reason Boeing would need to come up with something(s) and not ignore the opportunities. They could tailor-make the 73RS for its intended market, and would have the advantage of experience from the 787 and apply the newer technologies to create a superior aircraft to the 736 at relatively lower development costs.
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atmx2000
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 2:03 am

Quoting HS748 (Reply 6):
So what was the 717 then (apart from a complete failure)?

An orphan product inherited from McDD and modified to make it fit a little bit better into the Boeing portfolio.

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 9):
I doubt Boeing with their labor cost could compete with Embraer, I see the B717 as an example of this.

If Boeing were to keep everything in house, their entire manufacturing would be kept hostage by their in house unions. By contracting work out to other companies (including American companies), those companies have to compete for Boeing business, which forces those companies' labor force to be reasonable.
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aircanada014
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 2:08 am

What if Boeing makes the 737 thinner plane with seating config 2x2? Using the same style of 737 model but a lot thinner plane?
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 2:24 am

I don't see Boeing getting into the four abreast market -- perhaps the five abreast market. I also don't see any possibility of competing in the under 100 seat market with a six abreast aircraft.
 
PPVRA
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 2:34 am

Quoting Remcor (Reply 3):
But as Scott Hamilton points out, the 736/A318 are loss making aircraft, and probably weren't intended to make a profit alone per-se, but instead were created to make the entire 737 line broader and more attractive.

And maybe keep Embraer out (?):

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
That said, there are 450+ 735/6 aircraft in the world,



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 5):
But the 735 was NOT a loss leader, and sold 380 frames. It's almost like the 736 was there to see if 735 carriers would bite and add a few when they went NG, but the economics weren't there.

How many of those 450+ frames are -500s (pre-Ejets)?

Quoting Remcor (Reply 3):
however they are treading into unfamiliar territory. Will they really want to take the risk if Airbus doesn't?

Important point.


Quoting Alessandro (Reply 9):
I doubt Boeing with their labor cost could compete with Embraer, I see the B717 as an example of this.

Acquisition price isn't everything. Look at the 777 Vs. A340.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 5):
But that means the 738/9 replacement needs a different length wing than the 732/3/5/6/G replacement, and then the 738/9ER/752 replacement would need another wing altogether, and then there's the matter of an engine family with large thrust range and multiple fan/nacel sizes, which adds to R&D cost and cuts down on the commonality benefit along the 737RS range.

Imagine if in the end they still have at least the same pilot rating, as far as commonality goes. . . you're a 757 pilot today. In ten years, you'll be flying 100-seaters one day, 200 seaters the next. Do you think Delta will pay you 757 hours when you're flying the little guy? Nope. Unless they get 757 wages dow do E-jets level, then we're talking. . . but I don't see that happening.

Cheers
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HS748
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 2:34 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 11):
An orphan product inherited from McDD and modified to make it fit a little bit better into the Boeing portfolio.

That sounds like Boeing spin to me.
 
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 3:11 am

Quoting HS748 (Reply 15):
That sounds like Boeing spin to me.

Spin? It's the absolute truth. The 717 is a altered version of a McDD product that was in the pipeline. It has minimal commonality with the rest of Boeing's product line. It is an orphan product, adopted into the Boeing family but not a blood relative to the rest of the product line. That was part of the reason for its sales suffering. If Boeing had significant commonality in the 717 with other products, that would have made the aircraft more attractive more airlines.

Quoting Lehpron (Reply 7):
Even if it were designed with minimal change between derivatives except for strengthening certain stress parts, there will be a weight issue for the tiny and the massive verison of 737RS

A composite structure however does allow the base platform to be made light enough compared to conventional airframes and still be stretched into larger variants. It may not be optimal compared to a design specific for the lower end market, but that may not be an issue if the competition can't create a competing composite aircraft for awhile.

And as long as composite technology is a capital intensive endeavor, competing manufacturers from low labor cost regions won't derive an advantage from cheaper labor.
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elvis777
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 3:16 am

HS748,

I an not sure what you are trying to say. First do you not think that a concerted affort by Boeing could yield an aircraft capable of taking many orders fromn the Brazilian jet? That is what it sounds like from your first post. Also, you are quick to paint the 717 as a failure when we are not sure as to the original investment that went into it. It was aftar a derivative of a Douglas product. Your comments sure come out as a bit disparaging toward Boeing. Like if you had a complete dislaike for the company... Ok., that is fair to each his own. But your second post is a bit uninformed. Are you saying that the 717 was not an adopted product when McD was bought out by Boeing? Are you saying that the the two lines, hte 717 and the 737 did not overlap? Are you saying that there was no intra company battles as to how to market the 717?


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LAXDESI
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 3:26 am

If labor cost

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 9):
doubt Boeing with their labor cost could compete with Embraer, I see the B717 as an example of this.

Could they produce it in a low labor cost country and compete with Embraer? What percent of total cost is labor cost for Embraer?

I would love to see 787 technology applied to a 100-120 seater regional jet with a lot more range than the current Embraer. Many secondary cities in India could use such an aircraft to connect to Singapore, Dubai, and Hong Kong.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 3:29 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 14):
How many of those 450+ frames are -500s (pre-Ejets)?



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 5):
But the 735 was NOT a loss leader, and sold 380 frames.

Gotta read more closely, PPVRA...  Wink

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 16):
The 717 is a altered version of a McDD product that was in the pipeline. It has minimal commonality with the rest of Boeing's product line.

Yet there were plans for the 717-300 a larger version but without longer range, to create a "complete" family for an LCC, which would not be complete because they didn't want to steal 736/G sales.

The 717-300 accidentally showed up on the Boeing Aircraft front page as the graphic one day. They must have had a folder with images that were randomly rotated, and nobody noticed the 717-300 pic was in that folder until it was too late.

AirTran, for example, could have been all 717 and covered the routes they do now, though it still wouldn't have been able to do transcons because Boeing refused to make the 717-300 a transcon aircraft, despite it being totally doable. They 'already offer a jet that can do that.'

While you wouldn't share a pilot rating with the 737, if all you wanted was 100-130 seat aircraft family, the 717 was efficient and flexible enough. But airlines weren't willing to not be able to do 2500nm runs, and the idea of being forced to buy 73Gs anyway to do it, made the 717-300 a red-headed stepchild.

Thus due to this typical (for the time) Boeing belief that they can force customers to buy products that didn't work for them as long as it would protect other aircraft in the family, the 717 lost favor.

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Tango-Bravo
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 4:10 am

Quoting AirCanada014 (Reply 12):
What if Boeing makes the 737 thinner plane with seating config 2x2? Using the same style of 737 model but a lot thinner plane?

Seems it would be an utter sham to designate such a design as a 737. The one constant in the 737 family has been the fuselage cross section -- designed for a 3x3 coach cabin for the economics to be viable. An aircraft with narrower cross section optimized for 2x2 in Y would be an all-new design calling for an all-new designation.
 
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 4:23 am

Let's take AA for example, and let's ignore the fact that AA isn't about to go on a shopping spree for new aircraft for the next couple of years.

AA had 75 F100s which fit very well between the CRJ and Embrear 145 and the MD-80. It allowed AA to offer mainline service on routes that couldn't support all flights flown with MD-80s or larger, but could did have a lot of business traffic that wanted first-class cabins.

Without the F100s (and the 717s that they returned to Boeing, which was a mistake), AA has had trouble with scheduling, since it has such a large gap between the CRJ at 70 seats and the MD-80 at 136 seats.

Now, look at the fact that AA has over 300 MD-80s that need to be replaced at some point in time. A friend of mine who works for AA has heard speculation that AA could take the 45 or so 737-800s that it has deferred, to replace the oldest MD-80s and replace the rest of the fleet with the 737 replacement.

At some point, the 757s will also need to be replaced, although that probably won't start for 10 or more years.

If AA could replace the 757s, the MD-80s, and the F100s with a single aircraft type in 3 series, that would create a lot of savings, both in terms of maintenance and crew training and scheduling.

Remember that AA signed a 20-year agreement back in 1996 or 1997 that called for replacement of the entir fleet, which was around 625 planes at the time. I think AA has taken delivery of 200 to 225 planes, so there are still 400 or so slots left under the agreement. That is certainly motivation for Boeing to make a type that spans the range of 100 to 225 seats work in terms of economics.

The one thing that Boeing has to keep in mind is that most 90-100 seat planes aren't flown on long-haul routes. They may go up to 1,500 miles, but they probably will see service on routes that are 250 to 1,000 miles long. The replacement for the 737-200/-500/-600 doesn't have to fly trans-con routes.
 
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 4:31 am

I am a huge Boeing fan living in Wichita so I want Boeing to do well. Having said that I still believe Boeing pulled the plug to early on the 717. Yes right now there is not a huge market demand from the traditional carriers like NW, AA, etc. however when these airlines are able to purchase more aircraft they will be looking squarely at the 90-115 seaters (mostly NW). The 717 is very efficient, comfortable, and relatively quiet short haul workhorse that should not have been tossed aside like a stepchild by Boeing.
 
Slovacek747
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 4:50 am

I dont think the 90-100 seat aircraft should be an offset of the 737 but, rather a completely new plane. I think it would be too hard to make a plane that ranges from 90 seats to the upper end of the 737 at around 200 seats and still be as economical.

Slovacek747
 
MarkATL
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 5:28 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 14):
In ten years, you'll be flying 100-seaters one day, 200 seaters the next. Do you think Delta will pay you 757 hours when you're flying the little guy?

In ten years I don't see Delta paying anyone.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 5:46 am

Quoting Slovacek747 (Reply 23):
I dont think the 90-100 seat aircraft should be an offset of the 737 but, rather a completely new plane. I think it would be too hard to make a plane that ranges from 90 seats to the upper end of the 737 at around 200 seats and still be as economical.

Call it yosemite-zero, or Y0. Make it a joint venture with Japan or India.

But give it a shared pilot type rating with the 737RS, like the 757/767.

What would this allow?

Y0 in the range from 90-140Y seats, 80-125 in two class. 2-3 configuration (2-2 in J). 140Y seat version available in ER, and as longest version, has best CASM for carriers like WN. Of course, this is what the 717 range was supposed to be, but Boeing didn't let that happen.

Y1 would be 149-249Y, in a twin aisle. Basically a modern 767-100/200 designed for the markets the original 762 was designed for, 4000nm range, with an ER version of the largest for 6000nm. Would effectively replace the 738/739/752/753/762/A320/A321/A310/A300 without being hindered with trying to also be an efficient replacement for the 732/733/734/735/736/A318/A319/717/MD8X/MD9X/DC9/F100/E19X/etc. yet not step on the toes of the 783/8.

But again, the problem is you either need TWO engine families, or one family with thrust range from 20k to 55k pounds. That's a tall order.
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LAXDESI
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 6:32 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 25):
Y0 in the range from 90-140Y seats, 80-125 in two class. 2-3 configuration (2-2 in J). 140Y seat version available in ER, and as longest version, has best CASM for carriers like WN. Of course, this is what the 717 range was supposed to be, but Boeing didn't let that happen.

 checkmark  I like your idea. With 787 technology and newer engines, it would help in further fragmenting the market(more point to point, and increased frequencies). How will the CASM of YO/Y1 compare to the Embraer 190/195 and current 737/320?

YO version with 2500 mile range will have a lot of demand in India for connecting secondary cities to points in SE Asia and Middle East. They should consider building this in a low labor cost country and not cede the market to Embraer.
 
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remcor
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 7:01 am

Just to get an idea of what kind of stretch it would take to get a 90 to 200 seat airframe family, here's the lowest/highest seating capacities of some airframes, and what percentage difference between the highest and lowest capacity airframes:

E-jets
70 to 110 pax - 57% capacity difference

737 series:
110 to 189 pax - 72% cap diff

A318-A321 series
107 to 186 pax - 73% cap diff

757 series
208 to 289 pax - 39% cap diff

777 series
305 to 400 pax - 31% cap diff

737RS
90 to 200 pax - 122% capacity difference


Now I know that empty weights, MTOWs, fuel burn, thrust requirements, etc. don't scale up linearly with the number of passengers, but nevertheless it seems that a 122% scaleup would require a heck of a stretch, and would definitely require different engines. It seems to me that you'd need two different airframe families to get this much of a pax capacity range.
 
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 7:25 am

Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 4):
Historically speaking, Shrunken aircraft have always had much higher CASM's than extended aircraft of the same capacity. Embraer has the upper hand here.

Two aircraft. One seating 90 to 150, another 150 to 200. The 90-150 seater would be a Group III aircraft (737/A320), the 150 to 200 more along the lines of a 757. Same tube with 2+2+2 with a different wing. One looking more like a DC-9/727 the other more like a 757. If you want commonality down toe 150 seats you got it, if you want it up to 150, you got that too.

[Edited 2006-03-25 23:29:41]
 
Alessandro
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 7:48 am

ATMX, the unions at the B717 took pay-cuts to try to save the production, but invain.
LAX, as far as I know all Boeings to this date has been assembled in the US,
I doubt that Boeing will set up an assembly plant in Brazil to cut labor cost.
Never say never though, McD did it in China and many former McD employees
at Boeing right now.
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PPVRA
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:09 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 19):
Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 5):
But the 735 was NOT a loss leader, and sold 380 frames.

Gotta read more closely, PPVRA... Wink

Oops.. sorry! And it was on the same paragraph I quoted, too. Geez. . .

Quoting MarkATL (Reply 24):
In ten years I don't see Delta paying anyone.

Well that's a whole different question..

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 28):
Same tube with 2+2+2 with a different wing.

Is 2-2-2 really that great of an idea, though? So much space is "wasted"..

Cheers
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lehpron
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:47 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 16):
A composite structure however does allow the base platform to be made light enough compared to conventional airframes and still be stretched into larger variants.

Making it lighter does not negate having extra weight on board. The smaller of the series may have the same original wing, which compared to it, is giant and has unnecassary weight. If the baseline configuration was the smallest, and Boeing knows how to stretch a plane, maybe the largest versions can have a bigger or stronger wing. My guess, if Boeing decides that they cannot use the current 737 design, they already figured out which derivative would be the baseline, and therefore are currently calculating/predicting all performance parameters.
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atmx2000
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:54 am

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 29):
ATMX, the unions at the B717 took pay-cuts to try to save the production, but invain.
LAX, as far as I know all Boeings to this date has been assembled in the US,
I doubt that Boeing will set up an assembly plant in Brazil to cut labor cost.
Never say never though, McD did it in China and many former McD employees
at Boeing right now.

Those planes weren't deliverable outside of China I thought.

I doubt Boeing is going to setup assembly plants elsewhere too. But the question is whether they can compete with the RJ makers. I think if production moves away from labor intensive manufacturing methods to capital intensive methods that also allow for the production of better performing and more efficient jets, low labor costs in Brazil will be irrelevent.
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atmx2000
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:05 am

Quoting Lehpron (Reply 31):
Making it lighter does not negate having extra weight on board. The smaller of the series may have the same original wing, which compared to it, is giant and has unnecassary weight. If the baseline configuration was the smallest, and Boeing knows how to stretch a plane, maybe the largest versions can have a bigger or stronger wing. My guess, if Boeing decides that they cannot use the current 737 design, they already figured out which derivative would be the baseline, and therefore are currently calculating/predicting all performance parameters

Of course you don't want to have larger than necessary structures. I have always assumed that more than one wing would be needed. Any narrowbody successor will have to have models optimized far better for range and capacity throughout the family. Boeing will have to do more than just saw off truncate the wing like they did on the 787-3.
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:38 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 13):
I also don't see any possibility of competing in the under 100 seat market with a six abreast aircraft.

 checkmark  I've seen studies that argue a 4 or 5 across is the most economical configuration for a 100 seater. To be honest, which is more efficient depends on who is making some of the assumptions. As much was we would like the airliner market to be "one market," different airlines have different needs (cargo, range, turn times, etc.). I personally think that with carbon fiber, the optimal will definitively shift into the 4 across category. Why? As others noted, 4 across is more aerodynamic while with carbon fiber long fusalages will have less of a structural weight penalty.  Smile Its all in the trade studies.

Quoting Remcor (Thread starter):
Apparently they're talking about a 6-abreast (perhaps 7 abreast with 2 aisles!) airframe. With 90 seats that's only 15 rows, which seems like a pretty fat, stubby airframe that wouldn't be as aerodynamically efficient as its 4-abreast rivals.

While 4 across is very aerodynamically efficient, it is getting long enough to be structurally inefficient. Like all engineering, it is a compromise.

Quoting Remcor (Reply 3):
the 736/A318 are loss making aircraft,

These diriviatives were so cheap to do that after spares I bet they'll make a little money.

Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 4):
Historically speaking, Shrunken aircraft have always had much higher CASM's than extended aircraft of the same capacity. Embraer has the upper hand here.

 checkmark  However, the Embraer does have a relatively old (yet modified) engine. Recall that the CF-34 is the *first* high bypass turbofan (in its TF34 configuration).

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 10):
Boeing is splitting the RS into two categories to also cover the 90-100 seat capacity. And given that both the A318 and B736 are losing propositions, the E-Jets starting to get long in the tooth by that time,

If the 737Rs is done in two categories, that could be a game changer. Say a 6 to 7 accross to optimize turn times. I bet WN would love that idea!  bigthumbsup  Although, then the single door exit becomes a choke point. Maybe they would buy those overwing doors meant to speed up 737 pax movements...  spin 
As I noted before, 4 or 5 across is better for a 100 seater. To compete from ~100 seats to ~200 seats will require two different wings. Basic wing optimization does not allow for an almost 2X difference in wing loading while maintaining efficiency.

I really like the E-jets. But they left a big hole in the market not being able to do transcons. In about 2013 the E-jets will be long in the tooth and enough new technology will have come down through the pipeline to be worth competing against them... Will it happen.  scratchchin  I don't know.

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remcor
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:58 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 34):
I really like the E-jets. But they left a big hole in the market not being able to do transcons. In about 2013 the E-jets will be long in the tooth and enough new technology will have come down through the pipeline to be worth competing against them... Will it happen. scratchchin I don't know.

Of course, if they're smart Embraer will continue to upgrade parallel to this by 2013. Next generation engines that come out for the 737RS might be adapted for the E-jets, 787->A350 style. It probably wouldn't deter Boeing, though... Boeing can take a loss on a niche airframe and keep on kicking, but it would cut deep into Embraer's bread and butter.
 
planemaker
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 11:43 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 34):
These diriviatives were so cheap to do that after spares I bet they'll make a little money.

Maybe yes, maybe not. They both still had significant derivitive design and certification costs (e.g. A318 quoted at over $300-million). How many will they end up selling? And at a margin sufficient to pay back development costs and "make a little money"? We'll probably never really know.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 34):
In about 2013 the E-jets will be long in the tooth and enough new technology will have come down through the pipeline to be worth competing against them... Will it happen.

Will it happen... good question. So many variables and scenarios.

Is 2013 EIS for a Boeing 100-seater realistic?

If we take B at face value, the 737RS EIS is between 2012 and 2015. But which model will be first? The 73G (e.g. Southwest)? The 738 replacement (e.g. Ryanair)? When would the 100-seater EIS... 2014 to 2017? What will be Airbus' plans? Do you think that EMB will sit on their hands for the next 8 to 11 years?

What will the 100-seat market demand really be like in 8 to 11 years? Will it be large enough to warrant Boeing, Airbus, Embraer (and China and Russia?)

What will be the impact of consolidation? What will be the impact of fractionals and air taxis? What will be the price of oil? 8 to 11 years is a long time in an ever accelerating world. So many variables and so many scenarios.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
lehpron
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:49 pm

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 34):
As others noted, 4 across is more aerodynamic

Whoa, hold up. That implies smaller aircraft are more aerodynamic; give me a break. Coefficients of lift, drag, etc are independent of scale which is how we are able to test airplane models in wind tunnels. Reynolds number is dependent on scale, but we're not talking about that.

A smaller cross-section will have less drag force, yes, which may result in less thrust required. As a result of being smaller it will be lighter, yes. The performance of the aircraft may be the same as larger aircraft if properly balanced. Say you and others know this, don't mislead people by neglecting the details.
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LAXDESI
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:57 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 36):
What will the 100-seat market demand really be like in 8 to 11 years? Will it be large enough to warrant Boeing, Airbus, Embraer (and China and Russia?)

Current trends--smaller aircraft size driven by P2P and increased frequencies-- suggest demand should be quiet high. I doubt China can build carbon fiber fuselages anytime soon.

I would like to see B or A take a minority stake in E and develop a 100-140 carbon fiber aircraft common rated with their 150-225 seat aircrafts.
 
planemaker
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 1:08 pm

Quoting Lehpron (Reply 37):
Whoa, hold up. That implies smaller aircraft are more aerodynamic; give me a break.

No, he is saying that for the same pax capacity, a 4-abreast aircraft config is more aerodynamic - which is correct.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
Magoonis
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 1:26 pm

what does the Boeing 737RS look like? and what does it stand for ?
 
PPVRA
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 3:15 pm

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 34):
I really like the E-jets. But they left a big hole in the market not being able to do transcons. In about 2013 the E-jets will be long in the tooth and enough new technology will have come down through the pipeline to be worth competing against them... Will it happen. scratchchin I don't know.

Hmmm.. I don't know, I think transon is better off with larger jets with lower CASM. If I had an airline, I wouldn't put anything smaller than a B73G on transcon... would rather have at least a B738. B752 would be optimum.

I'm tryyyying not to be bias towards Embraer. I just think they've got it right.

What is the smalles jet doing transcon nowadays?

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 34):
As others noted, 4 across is more aerodynamic while with carbon fiber long fusalages will have less of a structural weight penalty. Smile Its all in the trade studies.

Good thinking!

Cheers!

[Edited 2006-03-26 07:23:22]
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
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remcor
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 3:26 pm

Quoting Magoonis (Reply 40):
what does the Boeing 737RS look like? and what does it stand for ?

737 Replacement Study. It's just a paper concept airplane now, so there are just rumors and hints of what they might do, to keep all the a.nutters happy.

[Edited 2006-03-26 07:28:58]
 
rampart
Posts: 1800
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 4:25 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 32):
Those planes weren't deliverable outside of China I thought.

Another thread today said that 8 of the Chinese MD-80s were currently in service with AA, ex-TW. Not directly delivered to them, but found their way into the fleet.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 4:45 pm

Quoting Remcor (Reply 27):
737 series:
110 to 189 pax - 72% cap diff

With the new 739ER capacity, and the ORIGINAL capacity of the 737-100, the family extends from: 100 to 215 seats, 115%, but of course over that time, the family changed a bit in terms of wing. And we know that the 736 isn't all that efficient because it has too much wing, engine and range for it's role, and the 739ER has field performance drawbacks due to being underengined, underwinged and having poor rotation abilities, both liabilities imposed by being in one broad family.

It's why most of us seem to agree that Boeing will need to do a 757/767 style treatment to the 737RS or it won't work. Two fuselages, two wings, two engines, two ranges, one type rating and many other shared components to reduce costs.

AA, CO and WN alone would make it worthwhile whether there was one plane in ranges from 130-225 seats, or two planes in ranges from 90-135Y and 149-249Y. While the 753 was not as effective due to boarding issues, a 249Y 737RS would work if it had two aisles and 2-3-2 seating.

I still think 2+3 for the smaller frame and 2+3+2 for the larger frame make a lot of sense. 18.5" seats for all in Y. Would allow for 2+2 and 2+2+2 F/J domestic seating with 21" width for two class carriers, something the current 737 and 767 fuselages lack. And if a 1 class carrier wants a wider aisle on the smaller jet, 17.5" seats provide 4 more inches of aisle space. I'm talking to you WN.  Wink

Remember, it's not so much the 2+3 seating on the MD80 series and Fokker was bad, it's that the cross section is dated as is the fuselage and wing. Add 6 inches to the width and you can achieve a lot. Larger bins, more luggage space below, a rounder fuselage for less drag and more efficient structure.

2+3+2 is probably the most preferred configuration of any plane I know of. Again, give it 8-10 more inches of fuselage width, you can achieve a lot. It could take existing 767 containers as well as LD1 containers in the manner the A320 can.

Quoting Magoonis (Reply 40):
what does the Boeing 737RS look like?

I believe it stands for "replacement study" and it doesn't look like anything, as it is a study. Some versions of the study have 2+2+2, others 3++3, others 2+3+2, others 2+3, some have overhead wings, others standard wings, some with t-tail and rear engines. It's all the study phase.

We are just talking about the reality of what one family can offer.

NOW, ABOUT THE ENGINES.

Assume there are 4 subtypes in the family for now (exact seating is up for debate, as is range):

A. narrowbody 90-135Y with regional range
B. narrowbody 135Y with 3500nm range (ER)
C. mid-body 149-249Y with 3500nm range
D. mid-body 200-249Y with 6000nm range (ER)

A and B use the same fuselage and wing.
C and D use the same fuselage
C has a footpring that roughly fits in current 762 box
D has a wing based on the 783 but with less structure?

That means you'll need engines.

If D is designed this way, you can use the GEnx engine from the 783/8 with a smaller fan and nacelle and a few fewer stages like the 748i version, in ranges from 45k to 55k range. In that way, the other 737RS models would not require an engine from 20k to 55k, instead needing a range of 20k to 40k, which is more achievable.

A and B would use a new CFM engine in the 20-36k thrust range
C would use the new CFM with a larger fan in the 28k-38k thrust range

The benefit of this idea is that it wouldn't require two NEW engines, only a derivative of the GEnx + a new CFM based on the current model and GEnx improvements, plus heavy use of composites and a larger bypass.

Development costs are greatly reduced if the GEnx and 783 wing can be used as a basis, and it also helps with fleet commonality and maintenance. I would imagine many 757/762 operators would love to have a long ranger replacement for those aircraft with the same engine family as the 787. And it would be something Airbus likely would NOT offer...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 5:44 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 33):
Boeing will have to do more than just saw off truncate the wing like they did on the 787-3.

That's really not a fair description. The B787-3 and B787-8 have the same wing, but with different wingtip extensions. Nothing was sawed off or truncated.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 44):

I still think 2+3 for the smaller frame and 2+3+2 for the larger frame make a lot of sense.

There is no chance that the B737RS will be 2+3+2. The B767 market was replaced by the B787. We're talking about the B737 replacement here. 2+3+2 also leads to high CASM because the aisle/seat ratio is so high. The B737RS will be 3+3 with a wide aisle.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 44):
It could take existing 767 containers as well as LD1 containers in the manner the A320 can.

The A320 can't take LD1s.
 
Cessna172RG
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 6:06 pm

Forgive me for skimming through the topic...

Why did Boeing buy out Bombardier if they now decide to build regionals? And, what about the 717? Why close that plane instead of exploit it? Where are the brains???
Save the whales...for dinner!!!
 
ikramerica
Posts: 15057
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 6:16 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 45):
There is no chance that the B737RS will be 2+3+2. The B767 market was replaced by the B787. We're talking about the B737 replacement here. 2+3+2 also leads to high CASM because the aisle/seat ratio is so high. The B737RS will be 3+3 with a wide aisle.

First, the entire 767 market was not replaced by the 787. The 783/8 has a 2-class capacity of 290-330 seats. The 767-200 has a 2-class capacity of 224. That makes the smallest 787 30-45% larger than the 762.

The 763/764/772 will be replaced by the 787. The 787 is slightly larger than the 763, and in 9Y, it is 764 sized.

That leaves the 762/752/753 without a model in the Boeing lineup. The 762/752/753 have sold over 1200 frames. Not offering a replacement for this in any fashion would be foolish.

We are talking a hypothetical 2 body type replacement. If you try to do all 1 body, you are right, 3++3 would be the best way. But we're discussing this because of the idea Boeing might try to go as low as 90 seats.

3++3 is not very efficient at 90 seats. It is also not very efficient at 249.

2+3 with an option for wide seats or a wide aisle is more efficient for 90-135 seats. 2+3+2 with standard aisles boards very efficiently. At 0.22 seats per aisle inch (7 seats + 2 16" aisles), it isn't that much different than 0.25 seats per aisle inch of 3++3 (6 seats + 24" aisle). At 7 abreast, a 738 would need to only be as long as the 73G now, 739 as long as the 738, 752 the 739, etc.

I actually don't think they will go below 73G size, so a 3++3 would cover the 73G-762 size category. But if they did go down to 90Y seats, can't see one fuselage doing it, and even Boeing has talked in passing about having the ability to have two fuselages due to composite manufacturing techniques.

Plus as an airline enthusiast, I'd like to see more kinds of planes!
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 6:26 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 47):

3++3 is not very efficient at 90 seats. It is also not very efficient at 249.

The former is true. However, with a composite fuselage, the latter is not true. A 249 seat 3-3 could be highly efficient.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 47):
2+3+2 with standard aisles boards very efficiently.

Yes, but a 2-3-2 flies inefficiently.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Boeing 737RS Could Threaten Embraer

Sun Mar 26, 2006 6:41 pm

Quoting Remcor (Reply 35):

Of course, if they're smart Embraer will continue to upgrade parallel to this by 2013. Next generation engines that come out for the 737RS might be adapted for the E-jets, 787->A350 style

 checkmark  However, I do not know the details of the GE engine contract. In general, GE aims for 8+ year "locks" on an airframe unless they have no choice. Would the e-jet be more competitive with a new circa 2015 in a decade? Heck yes! In no way will the next 100 seater have it easy.

As to the AJ21, its empty weight seems similar to the E175 (for the 78 to 85 seat version). But I looked for when its first flight will be. Early publications said this summer. Later in 2007. Now the press is reporting 2008. So when will it happen?

http://www.aerospace-technology.com/projects/arj21/specs.html
http://www.embraercommercialjets.com...mb_175.asp?tela=weights_dimensions

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 36):
And at a margin sufficient to pay back development costs and "make a little money"? We'll probably never really know.

Will we ever know? Only if the sales take off and obviously pay for the R&D.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 36):
When would the 100-seater EIS... 2014 to 2017? What will be Airbus' plans? Do you think that EMB will sit on their hands for the next 8 to 11 years?

I doubt EMB will sit on their hands at all! What interests me is that in the 2010 timeframe EMB could get out one more stretch of the E195 to ~130 seats. While this might only beat the 737RS to market by two years...

Quoting Lehpron (Reply 37):
The performance of the aircraft may be the same as larger aircraft if properly balanced. Say you and others know this, don't mislead people by neglecting the details.

No intention to mislead people. If it wasn't clear I was talking about a 100 seater... oops. My posts have tended to be too long so I'm trying to leave out some detail.  spin 

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 41):
If I had an airline, I wouldn't put anything smaller than a B73G on transcon... w

In some areas this makes sense. However, living near LAX, I believe there are a large number of routes that could be "seeded" with a 100 seater. Once you have the 5 flights/day that the business travel likes, they obviously upgauge. I see a market. We'll see..

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 45):
There is no chance that the B737RS will be 2+3+2. The B767 market was replaced by the B787. We're talking about the B737 replacement here. 2+3+2 also leads to high CASM because the aisle/seat ratio is so high. The B737RS will be 3+3 with a wide aisle.

Interesting... but the #1 issue with the 737 is that if one person is slow to load/unload, everyone else gets frustrated. IIRC, there was a survey out that noted the most stressfull time for most pax was the wait to unload. But then again, it might just be cheaper to buy those over the wing gates to unload a 737RS from two doors rather than put in two isles...  scratchchin 

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 44):

It's why most of us seem to agree that Boeing will need to do a 757/767 style treatment to the 737RS or it won't work. Two fuselages, two wings, two engines, two ranges, one type rating and many other shared components to reduce costs.



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 44):

If D is designed this way, you can use the GEnx engine from the 783/8 with a smaller fan and nacelle and a few fewer stages like the 748i version, in ranges from 45k to 55k range. In that way, the other 737RS models would not require an engine from 20k to 55k, instead needing a range of 20k to 40k, which is more achievable.

While engines can have a turndown of 20k to 40k... that engine will *not* be efficient at 20k. Heck, a CFM-56 at 22k isn't near peak efficiency. 22k to 33k proved beyound the V2500. Unfortunately, for 20k to 40k one would want two fan sizes. Perhaps a shared core? Unfortunately, engines generally scale less well than airframes. Yes, the RB211 scaled a bit, but on the 757 its efficiency isn't optimal (but dang nice reliability). Look at the GE-90. To go from 84k to 115k a larger diameter fan was selected for the 772LR/773ER.

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 41):

I'm tryyyying not to be bias towards Embraer. I just think they've got it right.

Don't get me wrong, I think Embraer got it right too! I just know any new airframe launched won't sell after about 15 years unless a big modification is done. (A la a circa 1970 742 to a circa 1985 744 to a circa 2008 748)

But then again, I live in aerospace R&D. If we couldn't think of how to obsolete *anything* that's out there... we would have to quit our jobs and find something new to do for a living.  spin 

Take it easy everyone,
Lightsaber
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