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NAV20
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 1:43 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 41):
with the increase in profitability over the past few years (2005 was nearly 40% up on years previous)

Oddly enough, RP, and just as a matter of interest, the apparent profit increase was actually the result of the accounting change. The bean-counters are sometimes way ahead of us mere mortals.  Smile

Please read this bit again:-

"These changes contributed € 289 million to Net Income (FY 2004: € 185 million) or € 0.36 to earnings per share (FY 2004: € 0.23)."

What that means is that, previously, BAE's 20% share of Airbus' profits was credited to BAE before the annual profit was assessed.

Under the new rules, it was assessed as part of EADS' profit. However, after a short period (probably a split second  Smile) it had to be paid out to BAE as a dividend.

So EADS' true profit remained roughly in line with the previous year; but the accounting change (counting BAE's entitlement as in the possession of EADS for a moment in time) produced an increase. On paper, at any rate...........
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 1:52 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 46):
If the A350 is to have a new wing, new powerplants, new tailplane, new avionics, etc etc, why is the A300 cross-section that has worked so well all these years a problem? Because it only allows a 8-abreast seating capability whereas the 787 can ostensibly pack in 9 abreas?

Yes.

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 46):
If the A350 can offer similar operating efficiencies as the 787 with the A300 cross section, then why is everyone having a hissy fit?

Because the A350 operating economics only rival those of the B787 if the latter is limited to 8Y seating. As soon as the B787 has 9Y seating, the A350 can't come close to its CASM.
 
11Bravo
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 2:19 am

Quoting Widebodyphotog (Reply 49):
With all that said, the reality is that Airbus won't make the A350 a lighter, more efficient aircraft.

They really can't unless they adopt a composite fuselage, right? One assumes Airbus have already reduced weight everywhere else possible. As you point out, increasing the cross section would address the seating issue, but then the weight disparity is even more pronounced. That seems like throwing good money after bad.

The B787 advantage is all about the weight, and that, in turn, is all about the composite fuselage. The A350 will never match the performance specs of the B787 unless they go with a composite fuselage which would cost billions of dollars and be years away.
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jaysit
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 2:20 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 51):
Quoting Jaysit (Reply 46):
If the A350 can offer similar operating efficiencies as the 787 with the A300 cross section, then why is everyone having a hissy fit?

Because the A350 operating economics only rival those of the B787 if the latter is limited to 8Y seating. As soon as the B787 has 9Y seating, the A350 can't come close to its CASM.

The A350 has a cabin diameter of 222 inches, while the 787 has a cabin diameter of 226 inches. A 9-abreast configuration in a 787 would be only marginally less uncomfortable than a 9-abreast in an A350. As we well know, airlines fly Airbus wide-bodies in 9 abreast seating (horrible though that may sound), and 777s in 10-abreast seating (ghastly, but those who do - like Emirates - make up for it by added leg room and good service), and its probably something that airlines are probably moving to anyways in the long run.
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jacobin777
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2

Tue Apr 18, 2006 2:36 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 48):
A clean-sheet A350 would be about 4 years behind the B787. Computational flow models would be better. Airbus could do 6 times more modeling for the same price since computers double in performance every 18 months. Plus the whole field of aerodynamics would be 4 years farther along.

your making a large assumption there, not on Moore's law, etc...but on the fact if they can take advantage from the "change in technology" to the manufacture of a better plane..

i've been saying all along, that unless Airbus increases its use in composites (hence change its philosophy in building the A350), its not going to make too much of a difference.

also, with the engines basically being the same for both the 787 and A350, the advantage won't be too much...

not to mention, Boeing will have had years of in vivoexperience with a large composite aircraft...

finally....the A350 is as it currently stands is much more expensive, if they have to had $5 billion more to the project...they might not be able to make the plane as cheaper/competitive as the 787...even if it possibly offers better economics...

Quoting Widebodyphotog (Reply 49):
In order to redesign the A350 into a formidable 787 competitor Airbus has to consider how to deliver better performance than the Boeing product will have six years hence, but at the same time they are unwilling to abandon the principles that have gotten them in the situation they are in now. From my point of view if there is to be considerable redesign of A350 it needs to focus on one fundamental aspect. MAKE THE AIRPLANE LIGHTER...

I've been harping about this since day one..at least someone here agrees...

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 52):
The B787 advantage is all about the weight, and that, in turn, is all about the composite fuselage. The A350 will never match the performance specs of the B787 unless they go with a composite fuselage which would cost billions of dollars and be years away.

two in a row.... cloudnine 
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norcal
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 2:38 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 53):
The A350 has a cabin diameter of 222 inches, while the 787 has a cabin diameter of 226 inches. A 9-abreast configuration in a 787 would be only marginally less uncomfortable than a 9-abreast in an A350.

This has been discussed before, you are looking at the exterior dimensions, not the interior ones. The 787 has thinner walls so that gives it a width advantage. Also the 787 fuselage is taller than it is wider so not only are the walls less curved (meaning you can put the seats closer to the window) but the floor is at the optimum height to take advantage of the widest part of the fuselage unlike the A350. The real difference is about 12" or so if you take all of that into effect. The 787 9-abreast will be no different than what is considered standard now (about 17.2"). It is either an ultra comfy 8-abreast (18.5-19" seats) or an average 9-abreast (17.2"). Comfort goes like this A350 9-abreast < 787 9-abreast < A350 8-abreast < 787 8-abreast
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 2:44 am

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 11):
I thought the A400 is a military project, so why does Airbus have to come up with the money??Haven't the various governments of the main customers come up with the euros?



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 25):
Airbus Military SL (Sociedad Limitada) was established in January 1999 to manage the European A400M military transport aircraft project and has in fact a totally different share holders structure than its civil counterpart Airbus SAS



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 39):
Would you be so kind as to actually a link to a reputable source saying the A400M is not entirely financed by OCCAR, rather than link me to a google page with numerous hits for a search on the vague wording 'A400M EADS Airbus'?

Resources can often mean more than money. Money is not an issue for the A400M, but it does represent a manpower commitment. There are only so many aerospace-trained engineers in the world. Airbus and Boeing have many projects in the works and both are having trouble finding enough engineers to go around, even after doing world-wide talent searches.

The need to devote engineering staff to the A400M could limit Airbus' ability to develop an improved A350.

[Edited 2006-04-17 19:46:57]
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 2:49 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 27):
Sombody should tell that to the GE home appliance division. They suck.

They're still in the top position in the market.

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 47):
Look what a one year delay bringing the DC-8 did to Douglas in the late 1950s:



Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 47):
What will a possible FOUR year delay do to Airbus?

I dunno... what did a 3 year delay do for the 777?

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 53):
The A350 has a cabin diameter of 222 inches, while the 787 has a cabin diameter of 226 inches.

That's not right, unfortunately, Jay. The outer hull widths are 222 and 226. The interior cabin width of the 787 is significantly wider.

N
 
deltadc9
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:05 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 57):
They're still in the top position in the market.

Only by supplying low end markets such as large scale new construction where entry level appliances are bought in large quantities. Sears sells half the appliances sold in America, GE is not #2 in sales there, there are too many other better options. Nothing against GE, they make great AC engines, locomotives, plastics, and many other things, but thier position in the home appliance market is not as clear as you might think. Bad example.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
jaysit
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:18 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 57):
That's not right, unfortunately, Jay. The outer hull widths are 222 and 226. The interior cabin width of the 787 is significantly wider.

I did quote the outer hull figures, because I didn't have the internal 787 cabin diameter.

http://www.speednews.com/787va350.pdf

Now, I understand that the 787 has a cabin diameter that is a full 12" wider than the A350 based on this comparison.

http://www.boeing.com/randy/

All well and good, but this is Randy at his PR finest. The 12" wider cabin at 50" from the floor is a neat comparison, but not likely to affect comfort that much since its measured from the shoulders of a standing passenger. I tend to take Randy of Boeing's "comparisons" with a big grain of salt after he tried (rather unsuccessfully) to convince us that the 737 and the A320 provided similar internal cabin widths and that we were just plain ol' deluded to find the A320 more comfortable.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
rj777
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:20 am

Is it too late to completely shelve the project?
 
boeingfever777
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:31 am

Quoting Halibut (Thread starter):
Criticism from customers has pushed Airbus to consider redesigning its planned A-350,

Thought Airbus said not only NO but HELL NO on the redesign!


Quoting Lehpron (Reply 1):
A320: bread and butter

...but not a profit maker... only a break-even if that.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
RichardPrice
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:34 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 61):
...but not a profit maker... only a break-even if that.

Huh? Where ... uh? Huh?
 
boeingbus
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:39 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 61):
...but not a profit maker... only a break-even if that.

I know you like Boeing and its forever... but please try to be fairer... Airbus is making most of its profit on the A320!
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
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N328KF
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:41 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 59):
All well and good, but this is Randy at his PR finest. The 12" wider cabin at 50" from the floor is a neat comparison, but not likely to affect comfort that much since its measured from the shoulders of a standing passenger. I tend to take Randy of Boeing's "comparisons" with a big grain of salt after he tried (rather unsuccessfully) to convince us that the 737 and the A320 provided similar internal cabin widths and that we were just plain ol' deluded to find the A320 more comfortable.

It doesn't really matter what you think of Randy in this case. This subject has been analyzed to death in this forum, and the result of the analysis generally shows that you are drastically underestimating its importance. Key customers have vocally spoken out about the difference.
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
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gigneil
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:41 am

Quoting RJ777 (Reply 60):
Is it too late to completely shelve the project?

Why would they ever, ever do that?

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 61):
Thought Airbus said not only NO but HELL NO on the redesign!

They've said quite a number of times since then that they'd be happy to consider it.

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 61):
...but not a profit maker... only a break-even if that.

What? The A320 is the primary contributor to Airbus' massive profits.

N
 
warren747sp
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:49 am

Why does it matter.Given that Airbus is the biggest public jobs program in Europe. Their government and tax payer will be more than happy to cough up the money to support face and national pride.
At least BAE is smart to bale now.
747SP
 
PlevTLS
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:00 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 61):
...but not a profit maker... only a break-even if that.

 laughing 
 
andessmf
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:03 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 57):

I dunno... what did a 3 year delay do for the 777?

The 777 offered much better economy than the competing models. The A350 would only match the 787 performance. The MD-11 did not meet performance guarantees, and was dumped by airlines that went ahead and then purchased plenty of 777.

This was an issue of timing again. If the MD-11 had been a successful airliner and met expectations, the success of the 777 could have been doubtful. Imagine if AA, JL, or SQ had liked the MD-11.
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:08 am

The point is that additional delay to launch an all-new airliner, preferably one with a lightweight structure, will not permanently damage the program.

N
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:08 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 59):
The 12" wider cabin at 50" from the floor is a neat comparison, but not likely to affect comfort that much since its measured from the shoulders of a standing passenger.

Standing? What's your source for this?

I thought it was at arm rest level.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
Aither
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:13 am

Quoting Warren747sp (Reply 66):
Why does it matter.Given that Airbus is the biggest public jobs program in Europe. Their government and tax payer will be more than happy to cough up the money to support face and national pride.
At least BAE is smart to bale now.

Yeah right, and French are communists, we know...

It's a smart short term move for BAE but for the long term we will see...
Never trust the obvious
 
deltadc9
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:14 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 63):
I know you like Boeing and its forever... but please try to be fairer... Airbus is making most of its profit on the A320!

It is a well know fact that the narrow bodies are low margin compared to wide bodies. Volume is the only saving grace. If Airbus is going to depend on the A-320 their business plan is even more suspect than I ever imagined. I doubt that is the case.

Look at Boeing, the cash cows that Airbus covets are not narrow, they are wide. The A-330 is what should have been cultivated into a long term money pooping cow. Great concept, great design, great delivery, crappy follow thru. You have to have long production runs for each model to even get to the cash cow phase. Airbus is not doing that, close yet no cigar. I really believe that their market evaluation skills are suspect.

Boeing makes a lot of money for every 747, 767, and 777 they sell. That's why Boeing went for the 777 instead of a 737 replacement, then the 787. Money. Anyone know how many 737's they have to sell to equal the profit of one wide body? This is why even though Airbus sold a lot more 320 family planes, their market share declined significantly. Nobody except A-Netters count planes, its the bucks that matter.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
jaysit
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:18 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 64):
This subject has been analyzed to death in this forum, and the result of the analysis generally shows that you are drastically underestimating its importance. Key customers have vocally spoken out about the difference.

The importance of this matter is but a bargaining chip in how much Airbus would be willing to discount the A350 against the perceived cabin superiority of the 787, and how much of a premium Boeing can get away with lobbing on the sale price of the 787. Airlines don't fill seats by advertizing the extra comfort their marginally wider Economy class seats can provide. This isn't 1966. Folks on this forum can expound endlessly on the relative comfort of a 9-abreast 777 versus an 8-abreast A340, but the travelling public doesn't care. This is all a matter of obtaining the best possible price from 2 competing aircraft manufacturers in a cut-throat aircraft market. If Emirates determins that a cheaper, slightly souped up A350 with an 8-abreast cabin can be just as profitable as a slightly wider 787 with a 9-abreast cabin, they'll buy it and tout it as an aircraft where no one is faced with the dreaded middle seat.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
atmx2000
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:24 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 73):
The importance of this matter is but a bargaining chip in how much Airbus would be willing to discount the A350 against the perceived cabin superiority of the 787, and how much of a premium Boeing can get away with lobbing on the sale price of the 787. Airlines don't fill seats by advertizing the extra comfort their marginally wider Economy class seats can provide. This isn't 1966. Folks on this forum can expound endlessly on the relative comfort of a 9-abreast 777 versus an 8-abreast A340, but the travelling public doesn't care. This is all a matter of obtaining the best possible price from 2 competing aircraft manufacturers in a cut-throat aircraft market. If Emirates determins that a cheaper, slightly souped up A350 with an 8-abreast cabin can be just as profitable as a slightly wider 787 with a 9-abreast cabin, they'll buy it and tout it as an aircraft where no one is faced with the dreaded middle seat.

If the traveling public doesn't care, then 9 abreast would be the preferred choice of airlines as that would give the lowest CASMs while offering greater revenue potential. The acquisition price on a per seat basis would be lower for the 787, which has a lower list price on a model basis than the A350.
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deltadc9
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:25 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 73):
The importance of this matter is but a bargaining chip in how much Airbus would be willing to discount the A350

And therein lies the problem. The 787 costs less than the 350. So to sell the 350 for less they are forced to take a significantly larger discount (Assuming that the markup is the same percentage of course).
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:26 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 73):
If Emirates determins that a cheaper, slightly souped up A350 with an 8-abreast cabin can be just as profitable as a slightly wider 787 with a 9-abreast cabin, they'll buy it and tout it as an aircraft where no one is faced with the dreaded middle seat.

How can a slightly souped up A350 with 8-abreast be just as profitable as a 787 with a 9-abreast?

It can't!
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
787engineer
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:27 am

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 42):
Now, with the time and money already being spent 'examining all options' why not develop a new larger aircraft family based on and sort of 'in parallel' with the A350 (retaining components, manufacturing methods, some development costs) but on the same time, keep the A350 for the 250 seat market, keep the customers that have already selected the aircraft happy, and get a decent ROI.

Hmmm, might not be a bad idea. Airbus could develop a similar airplane with wider fuselage and significantly greater capacity (325-450) similar to what Boeing did with the 757 and 767. Sounds like a decent plan; it might solve many of the problems Airbus is having with the A350. There's little chance the A350 will come out on top of the 787 and complaints from customers are hurting sales. If they can promise a similar A360 just 2-3 years down the line, it may revitalize A350 sales as customers wait for the "A360" to come out.

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 43):
The widebodies that Boeing sells appear to be selling more than the Airbus widebodies, especially with the 777, than Airbus did with the A330 and A340. Many on here have stated that the A340 was essentially a flop, and looking up the number of airlines that fly that bird and how many they have, I suppose it would be safe to say that it didn't sell well.

I wouldn't say the A340 is a flop. It has sold its fair share during its lifetime. But the jury is still out on the A345/346, and they could potentially be a flop if they don't get any more significant orders for them.

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 43):
I thought that the A300 and 310 are considerably larger than the A320 aircraft... Aren't both the A300 and 310 in the 200-300 pax category, and what about the range for the two birds, the A300/310 and the A320/321...

Why don't you go to the 'a/c data & history' section here on airliners.net. Its a very good resource.

Quoting RJ777 (Reply 60):
Is it too late to completely shelve the project?

The A350? Yes, it is too late, but I don't see why they would want to shelve it. It's a prefectly fine airplane.
 
boeingfever777
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:31 am

I thought the profit is made in wide-body a/c? and that Airbus was selling the A320 at close to cost. I didnt mean that they don't make profit. I know like 80% of their sales last yr were A320 orders right?
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:36 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 69):
The point is that additional delay to launch an all-new airliner, preferably one with a lightweight structure, will not permanently damage the program.

True, but the longer Airbus takes to come out with a competitor to the 787, the more sales the 787 gains.

Some carriers will never buy the 787 because they choose to operate an all-Airbus fleet and they will therefore order the A350, regardless of how it fares against the 787. So the A350, even if Airbus freezes the design as is and starts building tomorrow, is not going to be a 21-frame program like the 767-4300ER folks.  Smile

As many have noted, Airbus will record hundreds of sales of the A350 in it's current form to carriers who need more capacity or range then an A330 but don't want to operate four-engines (A340).
 
steeler83
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:43 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 77):
Why don't you go to the 'a/c data & history' section here on airliners.net. Its a very good resource.

Thanks for the tip  Smile
Those planes were more comparable than I thought.
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787engineer
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:53 am

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 78):
I thought the profit is made in wide-body a/c? and that Airbus was selling the A320 at close to cost. I didnt mean that they don't make profit. I know like 80% of their sales last yr were A320 orders right?

AFAIK, A and B make a larger % profit off widebody aircraft and of course widebodies cost more so the sale of one widebody may have the equivalent profit of three narrowbodies. Maybe 2 widebodies = 3 narrow as far as profit, no one knows for sure. I don't think the disparity is all that great probably 3 wide = 2 narrow. One could come up with a rough idea by looking at the sales data from last year.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 69):
The point is that additional delay to launch an all-new airliner, preferably one with a lightweight structure, will not permanently damage the program.

N

The issue with a new airliners for Airbus at this point will come down to resources. Both A and B right now are in need of lots and lots of good engineers. From what I can tell Boeing is still hiring at a pretty aggressive rate.
 
jaysit
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 4:54 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 74):
If the traveling public doesn't care, then 9 abreast would be the preferred choice of airlines as that would give the lowest CASMs while offering greater revenue potential.

Not necessarily.
Optimal capacity for any particular route isn't necessarily a straight-up issue of how many seats you can pack in. You factor in demand, yield, expected load factors.
Besides, based on the routes that an aircraft is employed on and its optimal performance, carriers change the seat configuration as Thai does for its 777 fleet. And clearly, Emirates operates its 777s in a 10-abreast configuration with absolutely no loss in customer loyalty.

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 76):

How can a slightly souped up A350 with 8-abreast be just as profitable as a 787 with a 9-abreast?

It can't!

It could in the long run if its sale price is pegged lower than the 787, and if it's optimal for the routes on which its deployed. For instance, there are many routes that don't require the capacity of a 300 pax 787, and for which a 240 passenger A350 would work just fine (this isn't taking into account a multi-variant 787 or A350 fleet).

What the airlines are really trying to do here is get Airbus to slash their price for the A350 family, while at the same time get it to promise some marginal performance improvements for the A350.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
Joni
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 5:43 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 72):

Look at Boeing, the cash cows that Airbus covets are not narrow, they are wide. The A-330 is what should have been cultivated into a long term money pooping cow. Great concept, great design, great delivery, crappy follow thru. You have to have long production runs for each model to even get to the cash cow phase. Airbus is not doing that, close yet no cigar. I really believe that their market evaluation skills are suspect.

Looking at Airbus' historical performance, they've grabbed half of Boeing's market share and currently command a greater profit margin from their planes than Boeing does (IIRC)... so I wouldn't consider their market evaluations skills suspect.
 
Halibut
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 5:46 am

Quoting Max999 (Reply 34):
As many have stated before me, the sky is NOT falling over in Toulouse. This kind of spin is unnecessary in this forum; it puts people on the defensive and amplifies the A vs. B wars on here.

Max999,
You & some others may be misunderstanding the thread . I never said Airbus was in trouble , just that they may or in fact , be behind Boeing ragarding new composite tech/aircraft & a less costly aircraft manufacturing process .

Please see in this recent article which quotes Noel stating- " Airbus plans to send over 1/2 billion $$$ in developing composite technology ".

Is is safe to say Boeing has already spent millions in composites ??? Yes indeed !

So that begs the question : How far ahead is Boeing regarding composite Aircraft .

Hhmm  scratchchin 

Furthermore , I feel the reason there is so much debate regarding the A350 , is because of the current dilemma Airbus has with a350 . It is not getting the large orders Boeing is getting from the 787 .

The decision to redesign the A350 , is indeed a tough one . And , many on A-nett realize that .

Trust me , no spin !

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...ats+200-order+target+for+A350.html


He said too that the price of fuel would be the main factor in determining how fast industry moves to developing an aircraft overwhelmingly built using composites. "If fuel is very expensive, you need an ultra-light aircraft, even if the cost of manufacture is higher," he said.

Airbus will spend €450 million ($540 million) in 2007-08 in developing composite technology. "Low cost industrial composites are the big challenge," he said. "But we will be ready to react."




Halibut
6 million Jews were slaughtered-Do you see Jews flying planes into buildings in Germany to kill 1000s of innocent, NO !
 
andessmf
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 5:54 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 82):
What the airlines are really trying to do here is get Airbus to slash their price for the A350 family, while at the same time get it to promise some marginal performance improvements for the A350.

True, but a what stage can Airbus make a profit on the plane?

Quoting Joni (Reply 83):
Looking at Airbus' historical performance, they've grabbed half of Boeing's market share and currently command a greater profit margin from their planes than Boeing does(IIRC)... so I wouldn't consider their market evaluations skills suspect.

Their previous market eval skills are not in question, is the future of their market that is.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 69):
The point is that additional delay to launch an all-new airliner, preferably one with a lightweight structure, will not permanently damage the program.

No, but it makes things a little harder for Airbus. Can you renegotiate the price with the current A350 buyers if the airplane will cost more now?
 
Johnny
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 5:56 am

@ Halibut

Forget a EIS of 2008 for the B787.Take 2009 instead.

To explain you why:

-first delivery end 2008 means first flight end 2007 at the latest.long testflight period can be expected due to the use of lots of new equipment.

-normally the first parts of an airliner are produced around 18month prior first flight.Nothing produced yet.Or did i miss something?

We will see the same delay Airbus has with the A380 now, because the B787 is a brandnew concept of airplane,very advanced and ambitious!!!

There are rumours going around with an EIS of around march 2009 for the B787-8, which in my eyes is absolutely realistic.

[Edited 2006-04-17 22:59:26]
 
deltadc9
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 5:57 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 83):
Looking at Airbus' historical performance, they've grabbed half of Boeing's market share and currently command a greater profit margin from their planes than Boeing does (IIRC)... so I wouldn't consider their market evaluations skills suspect.

Boeing has never captured 100% of the market so your argument has no basis in fact. BAE, Lockeed, MD had market share too. Look at Boeings numbers, are they smaller or bigger than before Airbus or about the same?

As for profit, well, lets just not go there. One, I dont have a dog in this fight, two, profit is a straw man, return to investors is what matters.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
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N328KF
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 5:59 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 86):
-first delivery end 2008 means first flight end 2007 at the latest.long testflighg period can be expected due to the use of lots of new equipment.

Do you think Boeing is new at this?

Quoting Johnny (Reply 86):
-normally the first parts of an airliner are produced around 18month prior first flight.Nothing produced yet.Or did i miss something?

You did miss something. Just a month or so ago, Bair mentioned that there were either seven or nine fuselage barrels that had been produced.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 86):
There are rumours going around with an EIS of around march 2009 for the B787-8, which in my eyes is absolutely realistic.

There is no indication of this from the press, and you can bet AW&ST or FI would be all over it.
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
-Donny Miller
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:00 am

Quoting Widebodyphotog (Reply 49):

No great disageements with that response WBP. I was on postulating possible alternatives.
One point, though - on a longer aircraft, the increase in weight for a wider cross-section might not be as big as you think, as the bigger 2nd moment of area assists in coping with the additional stresses (as people have pointed out, this is an advantage both the 787 and 777 have over the A345/6/A350. Just a thought.

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 78):
I thought the profit is made in wide-body a/c? and that Airbus was selling the A320 at close to cost. I didnt mean that they don't make profit. I know like 80% of their sales last yr were A320 orders right?

Please don't assume that the A320 series are not profitable - they account for 45% - 50% of Airbus Operating Profit (in other words a figure that would be about 85% of BCA's operating profit in 2004, and 2005).

In the last 2 years, Airbus have made at least as good a margin on the A320 series as Boeing have made on its widebodys.

Before you bite my head off, though - there are a lot of complex factors that affect that beyond the mere cost of production of an A320 vs say a 777 (like throughput, restructuring costs/exceptionals, supply chain effectiveness etc), and that picture is changing as BCA get hold of internal costs, and throughput rises.
Typically operating margin on the sale of a widebody airframe is some 20% higher than on a narrowbody (as an example, say 11% for Airbus widebodys vs 9% for Airbus narrowbodys)
A
 
Johnny
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:04 am

@N328F

Yes, i think Boeing is new at this!!! Or was there any civil airliner like the B787 before?!?

Try to understand my post.I do not want to say negatives about this project, i want to be realistic.That´s all.

Sometimes your posts sound like you are personally hurt by mine.

I like Boeing as much as you do.Read my posts about the B777 for example!

Johnny  Smile
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2

Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:05 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 82):
It could in the long run if its sale price is pegged lower than the 787, and if it's optimal for the routes on which its deployed. For instance, there are many routes that don't require the capacity of a 300 pax 787, and for which a 240 passenger A350 would work just fine (this isn't taking into account a multi-variant 787 or A350 fleet).

The problem for Airbus: there is a multi-variant 787 fleet.

787-300 no Airbus offering
787-800 no Airbus offering
787-900=A350-800
787-10=A350-900

Furthermore, the A350 is priced higher than the 787. Can Airbus affort to sell them at a loss, just to buy market share?
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
deltadc9
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:10 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 90):
Yes, i think Boeing is new at this!!! Or was there any civil airliner like the B787 before?!?

Sonic Cruiser, so in a way, yes. They never got to final assembly but they did create barrel sections and dealt with many problems that helped to eliminate showstoppers on this project. It was a good head start if nothing else.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
RichardPrice
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:16 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 91):
Can Airbus affort to sell them at a loss, just to buy market share?

Just because the list price is higher doesnt mean Airbus would sell them at a loss if they discounted frames below that of the 787, we have no idea how much the cost price of a frame is.
 
Badge
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:26 am

I dont know if anyone has read the 787 Flying Redefined book or not but I picked it up because I was interested in building a 787 cockpit for simulation purposes down the road (sim787.com). I get from this reading that the fact is Airbus was simply caught with their pants down. Focused so heavily on the A380 and totally thrown off by the Boeing SC Project they simply paid no attention and continued work on the A380. Then out of no where Boeing unveils the 787 and customers of Airbus immediately wanted to know what Airbus was going to offer as competitor. Over night the A350 was born and in my opinion is simply a disaster.
 
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glideslope
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:47 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 10):
Let's hope for Airbus sake, that Boeing doesn't launch the 737 replacement in the next 10 years. This would add even more complexity for Airbus

Boeing will do exactly this. They have put Airbus in a hole, and will now start the back fill process. I honestly feel bad for the engineers at Airbus. EADS is a HUGE entity based on a Socialist Operating Model.

These issues will paralyze EADS due to it's inability to make any decision with the slightest amount of risks. You guys in the EU need to stop thinking about building things you feel good about in a "Nationalistic Pride" kind of way. Forget about having to always "outdo the Yanks." Build things that customers ask for and want to PURCHASE. The 350 should have been something to inovate, not the result of the old and new haveing to asimilate.

The first step in recovery is admission. Airbus as of today is still unaware of what the admission is for!!!!!
"To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
widebodyphotog
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:51 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 89):
No great disageements with that response WBP. I was on postulating possible alternatives.
One point, though - on a longer aircraft, the increase in weight for a wider cross-section might not be as big as you think, as the bigger 2nd moment of area assists in coping with the additional stresses (as people have pointed out, this is an advantage both the 787 and 777 have over the A345/6/A350. Just a thought.

Understood A,

I think I can not stress this point enough though...It's one thing to for the A350 to be heavier than its 787 counterparts, but it's potentially a double tap to the head for it to be more than significantly heavier and less capacious and operationally flexible. The weight of the airframe is a fundamental problem that needs to be addressed going forward. As we are seeing at this moment airframe construction technology and methodology is finally moving into modernity. Without a serious effort to make airframes as structurally efficient as possible while reducing production cost, Airbus will continuously fall behind.

By relying on AL-Li as the base material for fuselages Airbus is banking on resources that are becoming progressively rarer and more expensive to produce while Boeing, with CFRP, is basing the future on materials that are being developed in ever wider applications thus lowering raw materials costs on one side, and allowing simplified production on the other. Al-Li has basically one use and that is aircraft fuselage material. It has to be expensively produced from elements that are dug out of the ground with their accompanying environmental concerns and massive energy consumption to create a useable product. Aluminum and its alloys will only become more expensive (along with all other high spec aircraft metals) while the development of CFRP as a generic industrial material with wide applications will continuously lower its production costs. It's a serious "pickle" for Airbus to be in looking down the road...

Quoting Johnny (Reply 90):
Yes, i think Boeing is new at this!!! Or was there any civil airliner like the B787 before?!?

Boeing's methodology of CFRP fuselage production is not new. The methods and production infrastructure for 787 and future Boeing airplanes is the culmination of a 15 year development program with the specific goals of significantly reducing the weight and production cost of primary aircraft structures.



-widebodyphotog
If you know what's really going on then you'll know what to do
 
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Asturias
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:53 am

Many nice opinions in this thread, but even more FUD against Airbus and the A350 or just simple misunderstandings. Even more unfortunately there are very few who have any facts to share.

After reading the whole thread, which is approaching 100 posts fast, one only needs to read the second reply.


Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
The A350 is what it is. It's what Airbus has to offer and while it may not record as many sales as the 787 does, it's not going to mark the end of Airbus as a manufacturer of widebody aircraft, much less aircraft, period.

Well said and that is all there is to it. The A350 is Airbus' response to the B787, but it is a good response - given the time Airbus has had to work on it, then it is most impressive. Whether it is better or worse than the B787 remains to be seen. CASM is just one part of the equation, financing, dispatch reliability, TCO, availability and commonality for instance.

The A350 is what it is and how exactly it will fare in competition to similar Boeing models remains to be seen. Everything else is guesswork.

I do think Airbus should have called the A350-800/900 something like A330-400/500 instead. The A350 is to the A330 what the B737NG is to the B737 classics. A whole new model name isn't necessary to tell airlines that the A330NG (A350) is better than the A330-200/300 and yet not the same plane.

cheers

Asturias
Tonight we fly
 
daedaeg
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 7:04 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 56):
There are only so many aerospace-trained engineers in the world. Airbus and Boeing have many projects in the works and both are having trouble finding enough engineers to go around, even after doing world-wide talent searches.

There is no truer statement. Upper level managers are having a tough time getting the correct headcount to fullfill increasing work statements. It's an ongoing problem industry wide. It's great for employees/contractors as pay rates go up to attract and retain talent, but it's bad for the respective companies because it becomes ever more difficult to complete projects on time.
Everyday you're alive is a good day.
 
787engineer
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Tue Apr 18, 2006 7:06 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 83):
Looking at Airbus' historical performance, they've grabbed half of Boeing's market share and currently command a greater profit margin from their planes than Boeing does (IIRC)... so I wouldn't consider their market evaluations skills suspect.

Where did you get the notion that Airbus commands a greater profit margin for their planes than Boeing? I'm not saying they don't; I've just never heard of this and a source would be appreciated  Smile.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 86):

-first delivery end 2008 means first flight end 2007 at the latest.long testflight period can be expected due to the use of lots of new equipment.

-normally the first parts of an airliner are produced around 18month prior first flight.Nothing produced yet.Or did i miss something?

We will see the same delay Airbus has with the A380 now, because the B787 is a brandnew concept of airplane,very advanced and ambitious!!!

Considering that the target first flight is 'fall 2007' I think the 787 will take flight before 2008. If you think Boeing can get through flight test in ~9 months, I think the 787 is in good shape to meet its schedule. A lot of long lead time items have already been produced or are close to completion. Just because something is very innovative doesn't mean it has to be late.  Wink

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