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deltadc9
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Wed Apr 19, 2006 11:26 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 199):
I don't believe Boeing have ever admitted that publicly

I have read a lot about Yellowstone and here is how I interpret it.

Y1 replaces 737 and 752 and maybe the 717 and smaller
Y2 replaces 753, 767, and 772
Y3 replaces 773 and 747 and maybe enters super-jumbo arena at the top end

As for the rest of your post, I find troubeling, infighting is never good. Assuming what you say is true, then Boeing is not finished cleaning up thier mismanagment.

Obvioulsy the people who envisioned Yellowstone are not the people in production, but they all need to have the same direction. Whats best for Boeing, not thier department.
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Wed Apr 19, 2006 11:37 pm

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 196):
You forgot that the 747 is outselling the 380...

Yep, who would have thought....

767 is outselling the 330
340 is outselling the 777
747 is outselling the 380
white guy is best rapper (eminem)
black guy is the best golfer (tiger)

 Smile

Cheers
 
jacobin777
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 12:23 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 184):
Come on, you gave me figures for shorthaul and longhaul-configurations.

You cannot compare one airplane with a single class layout and one with a two or three class layout when you look at pax numbers.

You know that..!

Johnny....I gave you the basic numbers for the 767/787, and compared them to how various carriers use their respective frames..

from there, one can come up with a good "guesstimation" as to how a particular carrier will be using a particular 787 frame..

also, another point of mine was to show that carriers have less pax than what Boeing cites on its webpages...

unless I'm not understanding your comments/questions...which I may very well be, I think I'm answering your questions/comments..

cheers.... Smile
 
787engineer
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2

Thu Apr 20, 2006 12:47 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 173):

How's that? If you change the cross-section of the fuselage, the aerodynamics (and weight) of the plane change quite dramatically and this doesn't depend on the materials the hull is made of. Also tooling has to be re-designed and re-made.

I think its obvious he's referring to a stretch. One doesn't scale airplanes from 150 pax to 350 pax. Composites make it a lot easier to produce stretches like the -9 and -10.

Quoting Joni (Reply 173):

Perhaps they know something you don't?

Perhaps they aren't willing to spend the money or have the resources at this time to develop a commercial composite fuselage aircraft?

Quoting Joni (Reply 186):

The 747 line is winding down, the 777 will be hit by 787-10 and the A320-family is outselling the 737NG 2-1

How do you figure it 2-1 when the 737 recieved ~40% of all orders between the A320 and 737? I didn't hear so much hoopla last year when the A320 actually came closer to outselling the 737 2-1. Joni, I think that 2-1 stat is something you tell yourself every night to help you sleep better (now that it appears Airbus may be in some dire straits). Considering that the 737 recieved more orders last year than it has ever recieved in its 40 year history is a big testament to the quality of the design. I don't think Boeing is at all worried about the 737, and it will be just as much of a cash cow to Boeing as the A320 is for Airbus over the next several years.

Quoting Joni (Reply 186):
If the 787 underperforms dramatically and Airbus does the 340 revisions they're thinking of,

340 revisions? really? I haven't heard of this. Why are they planning on updating that inefficent (comparatively) design when they should be focused on making the A350 better?

Quoting Joni (Reply 186):

In other words they need to develop an all-new family of narrowbodies that they won't be able to do until they get a new engine in 2012-2016 or so, until which time the A320 will be a cash cow for Airbus.

As if the A320 and 737 aren't cash cows NOW for their respective companies?

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 190):
The B787 is currently overweight, but that's normal at this stage of the development cycle. Indeed, if it weren't overweight now it would mean that the engineers screwed up in the early design phase.

Your assertion that the B787 is behind schedule appears to be entirely false. Do you have a source?

The 787 is behind schedule as much as it is overweight. Basically nothing that isn't normal. There will be always parts or components that are a few days to a couple weeks late. So far there's nothing from my view that would indicate the airplane would be delayed at all, especially nothing like the A380's ~6 month delay.

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 200):
As for the rest of your post, I find troubeling, infighting is never good. Assuming what you say is true, then Boeing is not finished cleaning up thier mismanagment.

It isn't so much "infighting" as it's disagreement/debate of what's best for the company. There really isn't a "777 camp" that's at war or "defending their turf" against a "787 camp". It's just making the tough decision of stretching the 787 into the 772A/ER range.
 
787engineer
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2

Thu Apr 20, 2006 1:05 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 162):
when i see the further bigger versions of the B787 i sometimes ask myself where the replacement of the B767-200/300 really is.

The B787-8 in a 9 abreast layout has the same pax number as a B767-400 and the -9 and -10 will replace the B777-200ER.

But where is the REAL replacement of the B767-200/300?

Imagine how can a new 9 abreast airplane replace a 7 abreast airplane ?

i think the B787 has grown so big that there could be room for a new airplane between the B737 and the B787.
Probably again with 7 abreast and exactly the seat number of the B753/762 and 763.

What do you think about that ?

The same goes to Airbus as well.With the -800,-900 and a planned -1000 they have the same problem.They have no replacement with the same size!

It isn't a 9 abreast replacing a 7 abreast airplane. The 787-8 with 8 abreast will replace the 762/763. The 788 will be much more efficient than the 767s and probably marginally more efficient than the A332 (even with 8 abreast). Probably not efficent enough to knock the A330 off its pedestal like the 777 did with the A340. The 788 will probably beat out the A330 much like the A320 vs. 737. The 788 will take most new customers who aren't already operating A330s and pick up the old 762/763/753 customers.

Considering the 788 is designed for 210-250 pax and the 739ER has 189/215 in two or one class arrangement I think the gap between the 737 and 787 isn't quite as big as you make it out to be especially since the 737 has grown significantly over the years. Remember just becaue the 787 has grown/stretched to the 787-10 doesn't mean it's still very efficient and competitive at the 788 size.

I think Airbus is content to leave the A332 market alone. The A332 is a very efficient airplane and will be a good competitor against the 788. The A358/A359 is meant to replace the A333 and A340s (except the A345/6 unless they decide to make -1000).
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 1:07 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 200):
As for the rest of your post, I find troubeling, infighting is never good. Assuming what you say is true, then Boeing is not finished cleaning up thier mismanagment.



Quoting 787engineer (Reply 203):
It isn't so much "infighting" as it's disagreement/debate of what's best for the company. There really isn't a "777 camp" that's at war or "defending their turf" against a "787 camp". It's just making the tough decision of stretching the 787 into the 772A/ER range.

I guess it depends on what the profit margins on the 772ER and the 787-10 are. Being a newer design, a lighter design, and a more efficient design, I would expect the 787-10 to generate more profit per frame, even if the 772ER has a higher list price (and I don't know the list prices for either - if the 787-10 even has a list price yet), since I expect Boeing would have to discount heavier on the 772ER vs. the 787-10.

And the 772 line itself is not in danger of closing, even if Boeing didn't build 773s on it, thanks to the 772LR and, especially, the 777F. So there may be a production slowdown with a possible reduction in staffing, but overall, the line should be stable for many, many years to come.
 
NAV20
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 1:19 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 191):
In any given year I could, with the assistance of a CPA firm and meticulous bookkeeping, legally show a loss or a profit for the tightly held C-Corp I owned for 20 years. That's a fact. It all depends on your goals.

Agreed, DeltaDC9 - in many respects profits are 'optional.' Besides, what is likely to happen NEXT year is always more important than what happened last year.

As regards EADS/Airbus prospects for the near future, this is an interesting news snippet - only an hour or so old. BAE, Daimler-Chrysler, and Lagardere may not be the only people clipping on their parachutes:-

"On the downside, Thales lost 0.33 eur or 0.96 pct to 34.15, followed by EADS, which was down 0.23 eur or 0.72 pct at 31.78, as speculation of further merger activity in the defence electronics sector abated. EADS confirmed that many of its executives exercised millions of euros worth of stock options in the days before DaimlerChrysler and Lagardere said they would sell part of their stakes in the company."

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2006/04/19/afx2679828.html

There's quite a lot of 'options exercised for immediate sale' reports towards the end of March on EADS Directors' Dealings' page (take some finding, though, click on Corporate Governance', then 'Insider Trading Rules' at the bottom on the left, then on 'Directors' Dealings');, :-

http://www.eads.com/web/lang/en/1024...F00000000400004/6/03/31000036.html

Reminds me of that old song really........

"You got to know when to hold 'em,
"And know when to fold 'em;
"Know when to walk away,
"Know when to run...."


[Edited 2006-04-19 18:26:16]
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 1:19 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 204):
I think Airbus is content to leave the A332 market alone. The A332 is a very efficient airplane and will be a good competitor against the 788. The A358/A359 is meant to replace the A333 and A340s (except the A345/6 unless they decide to make -1000).

They are replacing the A332 with the A358. The A359 is more like the A333.

Cheers
 
JayinKitsap
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 1:24 am

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 201):
Yep, who would have thought....

767 is outselling the 330
340 is outselling the 777
747 is outselling the 380
white guy is best rapper (eminem)
black guy is the best golfer (tiger)

That was terrific - great

Who would have thought that the 767 is selling, that is 744 is basically sold out until the 748 starts production. The 737 2nd line is starting, at some point it will switch to the MMA planes (~100) etc. At what point will A's A320 backlog be so large that new orders dry up (it is over 5 years right now).

I admit that the A320 is a terrific plane and probably has an edge on the 737 for many narrowbody missions. However, the 737 is better for certain missions and is preferred by many airlines. This market will be at general parity for the rest of this decade.

If the 787 is so overweight, a paper plane, a plastic plane, unproven technology, undesirable, late, will degrade in sun, will have severe ramp rash breakouts, why would the professionals at nearly 30 airlines have ordered 345 and committed their companies to $ 34.5 Billion dollars.
 
andessmf
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 1:30 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 203):
I didn't hear so much hoopla last year when the A320 actually came closer to outselling the 737 2-1

Just to add fire to the flame, isnt the 737 outselling the A320 2 to 1 so far this year?
 
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N328KF
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 1:30 am

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 207):
They are replacing the A332 with the A358. The A359 is more like the A333.

The A358 replaces both the A332 and A342, and the A359 replaces both the A333 and A343, unless one cares about ETOPS.
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 1:49 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 200):
I find troubeling, infighting is never good. Assuming what you say is true, then Boeing is not finished cleaning up thier mismanagment.

There is nothing troubling here -- just normal healthy competition for resources within a large corporation. I apologize if I gave the wrong impression.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 1:59 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 173):
They had quarters where they made a loss on 1999-2001 or so, you can dig them up, again if you feel like it.

Don't expect me to do your research for you.

Quoting Manni (Reply 188):
Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 149):
We're discussing the profit margin on the A350.

Exciting! How are you going to do that without any figures?

Joni claims these are published in the Airbus annual reports. He can't seem to find them though...
 
EI321
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 2:05 am

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 207):
They are replacing the A332 with the A358. The A359 is more like the A333.

The A359 is the perfect A343 replacement. It actually has more in common with the range capability of the A343 than the A333 which is not a true long ranger. The A359 range is 13890km The range of the A343 is 13700km.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 210):
The A358 replaces both the A332 and A342, and the A359 replaces both the A333 and A343, unless one cares about ETOPS.

 checkmark 
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 2:15 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 213):
The A359 is the perfect A343 replacement.

The A350-900 and B787-9 are both great A340-300 replacements.
 
Halibut
Topic Author
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 2:19 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 188):
He's got it mixed up. Altough Airbus sold more aircraft than Boeing last year, the total value of the ordered Boeing aircraft was 10 billion higher than the total value of ordered Airbus aircraft, at list price.

 confused 

Manni,
I'm not sure if you're quoting myself or Joni ?

Quoting Halibut (Reply 185):
Joni,
If I recall correctly , Boeing made approximately 10 billion more than Airbus in 2005 . For the forseeable future ,... not too much will change regarding what both aircraft manufactures offer airlines . So from my perspective , I feel this trend of Boeing selling more aircraft that offer higher profit yeilds will continue , resulting in a much greater return for Boeing !

Boeing did in fact bring in more than 10 billion dollars more in profit than did Airbus 2005 . As a result, Boeing won the larger proportion of the passenger jet market in terms of value, with a 55% share. . Also , please note in my reply which states :

{.....I feel this trend of Boeing selling more aircraft "....THAT OFFER HIGHER PROFIT YEILDS.... " will continue , resulting in a much greater return for Boeing !....}

I did not say Boeing sold more aircraft in total , just more aircraft " 777/787-midsized a/c " that bring in more money then smaller aircraft .

I think I was pretty much on the money !

Halibut
 
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N328KF
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 2:28 am

Quoting Halibut (Reply 215):
Boeing did in fact bring in more than 10 billion dollars more in profit than did Airbus 2005 . As a result, Boeing won the larger proportion of the passenger jet market in terms of value, with a 55% share. . Also , please note in my reply which states :

$10bil more? Not quite. EADS brought in €1.68bil* (roughly $2bil) in 2005. Boeing brought in $8.6bil.*.



[Edited 2006-04-19 19:30:27]
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 2:38 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 188):
Airbus sold more aircraft than Boeing last year

If one consistently applies Airbus' counting methodology to both manufacturers, then in 2005 Boeing sold more aircraft: 1098 to 1055. If one consistently applies Boeing's counting methodology to both manufacturers, then Boeing sold more aircraft: 1002 to 905. The only way to conclude that Airbus sold more aircraft in 2005 is to apply different counting methodologies.

If you want so badly to paint Airbus as bigger, then you can truthfully write that Airbus delivered more aircraft than Boeing in 2005. It's very likely that Airbus will delivery more aircraft than Boeing in 2006 too.
 
Halibut
Topic Author
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 3:24 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 216):
$10bil more? Not quite. EADS brought in €1.68bil* (roughly $2bil) in 2005. Boeing brought in $8.6bil.*.

I stand corrected . I recall reading something to the effect that Boeing's totals sales for 2005 were approxitaely 15 billion more than Airbus . However , I did not take into account all the other margin, profit stuff . Oops !

Back on topic : Airbus's A350 Pickle !

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/255988_air18ww.html

Tuesday, January 17, 2006 · Last updated 4:15 p.m. PT

Airbus claims order victory over Boeing in 2005
But analysts question some soft numbers in the European's claim

By JAMES WALLACE
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER


But Boeing clobbered Airbus in selling the more expensive widebody jets. Even Airbus conceded that it lost ground to Boeing in the twin-aisle market – only about 17 percent of the Airbus orders were for widebody planes.

Aboulafia said Airbus clearly has a hole in its product development strategy. “In a year or two,” he said, “Airbus might not have anything to sell between 300 seats and 555 seats

"The headline today is that Airbus beat Boeing again in orders. But at the end of the day, a month or two from now, everyone will have forgotten the headline and will be writing about what Airbus has to do to shore up their poor performance in widebodies.”

Halibut
 
co7772wuh
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 6:28 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 186):
The 747 line is winding down,

I think you're a bit off !

747-8 Model Turning Heads (by Jacobin777 Apr 14 2006 in Civil Aviation)

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/266659_boeing14.html



"Lufthansa and Singapore Airlines both operate older 747-400s, and the newer model would make a good fit in their respective long-haul fleets, executives of both airlines said in interviews.
 
steeler83
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 6:53 am

Quoting Co7772wuh (Reply 219):
Quoting Joni (Reply 186):
The 747 line is winding down,

I think you're a bit off !

I'll say... Then that thread morphed into another 787 thread ultimately. Aren't BA and LH strongly considering that bird, as well as both the 748 and 787? or not...
 
787engineer
Posts: 545
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 7:50 am

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 209):
I didn't hear so much hoopla last year when the A320 actually came closer to outselling the 737 2-1

Just to clarify I mean the A320 came closer to outselling the 737 2-1 in 2004 than in 2005.

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 207):

They are replacing the A332 with the A358. The A359 is more like the A333.

Sorry, my mistake, wasn't thinking  tired . Hmmm doesn't that leave a fairly big gap between the A332 and A321, surprised I never noticed that. I guess the A310 sort of fills the 190-250 slot.
 
andessmf
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 8:06 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 221):
Just to clarify I mean the A320 came closer to outselling the 737 2-1 in 2004 than in 2005.

I understand, but a few threads ago some people were claiming that since the A320 had outsold the 737 by a 2 to 1 margin (in the last few years), the 737 was basically dead, which is not the case.
 
Ruscoe
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 12:00 pm

Quoting Asturias (Reply 187):
Also, the airline industry is notoriously conservative. Which brings me to my second point. Airbus isn't ready to make an all composite airliner. That is what the A400M project is partially about for Airbus.

That is what I thought also and have stated so in posts here from time to time.
However, you may be able to shine some light on this for me. I saw in a recent publication (I think FI) that the A400 will have an Al-Li fuselage. Is this a simple confusion with the 350 or have Airbus actully changed their minds and now going for Al-Li for the A400.
Another aspect of this debate to which I have no answer, is whether Airbus is having trouble getting substantial amounts of composite at a reasonable price because production of composites has been tied up somewhat by Boeing for the 787. I get the impression Boeing is having similar problems with titanium.

Ruscoe
 
dhefty
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 12:03 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 217):
It's very likely that Airbus will delivery more aircraft than Boeing in 2006 too.

Zvezda, 2006 might turn out to be quite a close contest in terms of numbers of aircraft delivered, but Boeing might very well come out on top in terms of dollar value.

In the first quarter, A320/B737 deliveries are currently 78 to 74 with Airbus leading. In wide-bodies, Boeing leads by 24 to 23, but with a large preponderance of their most expensive models (B777-300ER, B777-200LR and B747). It could be that Boeing already leads in dollar value.
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 12:16 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 224):
Zvezda, 2006 might turn out to be quite a close contest in terms of numbers of aircraft delivered, but Boeing might very well come out on top in terms of dollar value.

We'll never know. Actual prices represent value. List prices do not represent value.
 
Ruscoe
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 1:25 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 224):
Zvezda, 2006 might turn out to be quite a close contest in terms of numbers of aircraft delivered, but Boeing might very well come out on top in terms of dollar value

It is interesting that Boeing has a higher average sell price than Airbus but Airbus has a higher (EBIT)earnings before interest and tax, per unit than Boeing.
This is distoreted of course by the mix of aircraft types and each Companies accounting practices.

However despite a falling unit sell price over the past few years Airbus has been able to increase its Av EBIT per unit. This attests to the success of their efficiency drive.

Ruscoe
 
dhefty
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 2:50 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 225):
We'll never know. Actual prices represent value. List prices do not represent value.

We many never know what the contract prices were on each and every airplane sold, but it's very easy to compare gross revenue (or turnover as they say in the UK). Just read the quarterly reports for Boeing and EADS and compare the two.
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 3:00 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 227):
We many never know what the contract prices were on each and every airplane sold, but it's very easy to compare gross revenue (or turnover as they say in the UK). Just read the quarterly reports for Boeing and EADS and compare the two.

Do they exclude parts, services, etc.?
 
dhefty
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 3:43 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 228):
Do they exclude parts, services, etc.?

Those are normally included.
 
Joni
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 5:42 pm

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 203):

I think its obvious he's referring to a stretch. One doesn't scale airplanes from 150 pax to 350 pax. Composites make it a lot easier to produce stretches like the -9 and -10.

In Reply 169 he explicitly mentions scaling to different fuselage widths. And why would it be easier to even stretch a plane made of composites anyhow? You add some plugs in any case.

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 203):

340 revisions? really? I haven't heard of this. Why are they planning on updating that inefficent (comparatively) design when they should be focused on making the A350 better?

They're planning to update the planes (345/6) specifically because they aren't as efficient as it should be.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 206):
As regards EADS/Airbus prospects for the near future

When more shares enter the marketplace at once, the price dips. Therefore it's a good time to excersize options just before. How does that relate to EADS' near-term prospects?

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 212):

Joni claims these are published in the Airbus annual reports. He can't seem to find them though...

Well, no, you'll have to re-read some earlier posts on this thread, once more, to get a grip on the subject.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 216):
$10bil more? Not quite. EADS brought in �1.68bil* (roughly $2bil) in 2005. Boeing brought in $8.6bil.*.

Now this was a good one... the issue was that someone claimed Boeing made 10BUSD more profit in 2005 than EADS. A simple, quick look at the annual reports (EADS' 2005 report is now available) reveals that in 2005

Boeing's pretax profit was 2819MUSD = 2349 MEUR
EADS' pretax profit was 2712 MEUR.
 
NAV20
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 8:57 pm

Quoting Joni (Reply 230):
When more shares enter the marketplace at once, the price dips. Therefore it's a good time to excersize options just before. How does that relate to EADS' near-term prospects?

Joni, please use the links I provided. At least six of the eleven members of EADS' Executive Committee exercised share options 'for immediate sale' in the last half of March. The six so far recorded are Forgeard, Bregier, Zoller, Auque, Gut, and Itavuori. All of them sold the shares concerned immediately, they didn't hang on to them.

Forgeard sold his EADS shares for a gross amount of E5.18M. At the same time his wife, Marie Forgeard, sold E0.711M. worth, and their three children sold E4M. worth between them.

Such large-scale disposals over such a short period don't exactly suggest that the sellers have overweening confidence in the future of the company.
 
leelaw
Posts: 4517
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 9:15 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 231):
Such large-scale disposals over such a short period don't exactly suggest that the sellers have overweening confidence in the future of the company.

Even the most committed EurocRATs will make for the gangway once they hear that...drip, drip, drip.  Smile
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 9:33 pm

Quoting Joni (Reply 230):

They're planning to update the planes (345/6) specifically because they aren't as efficient as it should be.

Airbus dropped that idea a few months ago. At best, they could spend several billion euro to get the A340 five year from now to where the B777 is today. Back to the drawing board. Hopefully, Airbus will produce an all-new composite fuselage aircraft with lower CASM than the B787-10 which would kill the B777 and B747.
 
Joni
Posts: 2613
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2000 11:05 pm

RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 9:40 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 233):
Airbus dropped that idea a few months ago. At best, they could spend several billion euro to get the A340 five year from now to where the B777 is today

Ok, I hadn't heard that. Where did you read about it? I was under the impression that the "E" 340NGs would have had substantially better economics than the 777.
 
deltadc9
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 9:56 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 227):
We many never know what the contract prices were on each and every airplane sold, but it's very easy to compare gross revenue (or turnover as they say in the UK). Just read the quarterly reports for Boeing and EADS and compare the two.

Sorry, but its not that easy, I tried to explain ealier in the thread why, based on the respective tax codes, that gross revenue can be affected by among other things, how you value inventory, how you account for outsourcing, how you distribute earnings, and how you account for expenses.

Its very complicated and there are million different permutations either company could follow to arrive at their year end numbers. The chances that each companies methods are even close are remote, making comparisons suspect.
 
Halibut
Topic Author
Posts: 943
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:43 am

RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 10:17 pm

Quoting Joni (Reply 230):
Now this was a good one... the issue was that someone claimed Boeing made 10BUSD more profit in 2005 than EADS. A simple, quick look at the annual reports (EADS' 2005 report is now available) reveals that in 2005

Oh com'on Joni !  sarcastic 

At least I am capable of admitting to something that I stated was inaccrate . I do my best to be as intellectually honest with myself & as well with others .

Some people on A-nett " who shall remain nameless  wink  " are incapable of such actions .

Now Joni ,
Can you find it in yourself to retract your 747 comment ????




Quoting Co7772wuh (Reply 219):
Quoting Joni (Reply 186):
The 747 line is winding down,

 puckerup 


Halibut
 
deltadc9
Posts: 2811
Joined: Fri Apr 14, 2006 10:00 pm

RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 10:19 pm

Quoting Joni (Reply 234):
I was under the impression that the "E" 340NGs would have had substantially better economics than the 777.

Close to or possibly the same yes, but substantially better? Not possible unless the combination of a lower sticker price and increased discount that can be spread out over the aircrats lifetime are combined with the improvements. That may be what you heard.
 
Joni
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2

Thu Apr 20, 2006 10:38 pm

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 237):
Close to or possibly the same yes, but substantially better? Not possible unless the combination of a lower sticker price and increased discount that can be spread out over the aircrats lifetime are combined with the improvements. That may be what you heard.

If they use Al-Li in the fuselage (like in A350) the OEWs can becone substantially smaller than for the corresponding 777s, and that combined with new engines ought to make their performance substantially better - why else even consider spending money on upgrades?

Take a look at the Flight intl article for one:

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...Enhanced+A340+to+take+on+777+.html

Sources say the combination of weight-savings and new-generation engines should enable the A340-600E to offer significantly better operating cost and range performance than the 777-200LR/300ER

Here's a tinyurl...

http://tinyurl.com/e9z8h

[Edited 2006-04-20 15:40:59]
 
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Stitch
Posts: 27681
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 10:45 pm

Of course, without knowing who the "sources" are and what their connection with the program is, we can't know how much weight to give those statements.

EK has said they'd prefer to wait for the A346E and not take the A346HGW, as they seem to feel the 773ER offers better operating costs then the A346HGW (based on their continuing to order the 773ER).

I'm guessing EK then later said (in public or in private to Airbus) that they would not take the A346E, either, since Zvezda notes in Reply 233 that Airbus is not going to develop the A345E/A346E (if I am interpreting his statement accurately).
 
widebodyphotog
Posts: 885
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 11:14 pm

Quoting Joni (Reply 238):
If they use Al-Li in the fuselage (like in A350) the OEWs can becone substantially smaller than for the corresponding 777s, and that combined with new engines ought to make their performance substantially better - why else even consider spending money on upgrades?

Fishy...Airbus engineers say that making a composite fuselage for A350 would have only saved 560kg, but Al-Li skins for the A340-500/600 can make up the 51,000 and 18,000lb structural weight difference, and more, from their respective Boeing counterparts? If that's the case then that stuff should be called Mirac-Al-Li...



-widebodyphotog
 
User avatar
N328KF
Posts: 6027
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 11:16 pm

Quoting Joni (Reply 230):
Now this was a good one... the issue was that someone claimed Boeing made 10BUSD more profit in 2005 than EADS. A simple, quick look at the annual reports (EADS' 2005 report is now available) reveals that in 2005

Boeing's pretax profit was 2819MUSD = 2349 MEUR
EADS' pretax profit was 2712 MEUR.

I linked my sources. The link for Boeing's profit appears to have incorrect data. But don't you dare insinuate that I skewed it. In fact, your gross profit data for Boeing is incorrect, while you are trying to compare your gross profit data to my net profit data and saying that I am wrong.

Quoting Joni (Reply 234):
Ok, I hadn't heard that. Where did you read about it? I was under the impression that the "E" 340NGs would have had substantially better economics than the 777.

Equivalent to, but not better, and is it good to match your competitor's 2003 numbers in 2010? What does that say to your customers?
 
Joni
Posts: 2613
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 11:31 pm

Quoting Widebodyphotog (Reply 240):


Fishy...Airbus engineers say that making a composite fuselage for A350 would have only saved 560kg, but Al-Li skins for the A340-500/600 can make up the 51,000 and 18,000lb structural weight difference, and more, from their respective Boeing counterparts? If that's the case then that stuff should be called Mirac-Al-Li...

The point here is that using an all-composite fuselage in A350 would only save 500kg over Al-Li, but using Al-Li over the current A346 materials would save a lot, since Al-Li and composited are roughly the same weight/strength.
 
widebodyphotog
Posts: 885
Joined: Wed Jun 30, 1999 9:23 am

RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 11:41 pm

Quoting Joni (Reply 242):
The point here is that using an all-composite fuselage in A350 would only save 500kg over Al-Li, but using Al-Li over the current A346 materials would save a lot, since Al-Li and composited are roughly the same weight/strength.

The point is that it makes no sense that Al-Li is that much lighter than the current high spec alloys or CFRP for that matter...IIRC Airbus engineering stated publicly that Al-Li use on the A350 will only save 8,000kg over aluminum and that was combined savings from Al-Li and composite structures...How in the world is Al-Li going to reduce the structural weight of the A340-500 by more than 51,000lbs (24,000Kg)?



-widebodyphotog
 
garnetpalmetto
Posts: 5352
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2003 1:38 am

RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 11:42 pm

I'm going to archive this thread due to length - feel free to start a new one.
 
Halibut
Topic Author
Posts: 943
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:43 am

RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 11:46 pm

Breaking News about Airbus's Pickle :  scratchchin 
Airbus Will Not Be Rushed On A350 Decision (by Leelaw Apr 20 2006 in Civil Aviation)

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...+North+American+CEO+Eccleston.html

Halibut
 
787engineer
Posts: 545
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2005 5:08 am

RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Fri Apr 21, 2006 12:00 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 234):

Ok, I hadn't heard that. Where did you read about it? I was under the impression that the "E" 340NGs would have had substantially better economics than the 777.

Considering the A350s delay into 2011 and the current issues with the A350 I don't think Airbus would have the resources to get a A345/6E out until 2012-2013. Even if they get it out by 2011 that's still 5 years away, and in 5 years airlines might decide to wait another few years for a Y3 offering. I'd take those fuel savings numbers with a grain of salt. Even with the Al-Li weight savings (not as significant as composites; it IS still an Al-alloy, afterall) it will be very hard to beat a twin with an equal sized quad. Maybe in the meantime while both A and B are waiting for those narrowbody engines the 777 will also go to Al-Li.

Quoting Joni (Reply 230):

In Reply 169 he explicitly mentions scaling to different fuselage widths. And why would it be easier to even stretch a plane made of composites anyhow? You add some plugs in any case.

Stretching the 787 has been a topic that's been beaten to death around here. I'm surprised you haven't read any of those posts. With composites you can always adjust the material by changing fiber directions and fiber density, if nothing else one can always add additional plys whereas on an Al fuselage a stretch requires additional structure, especially on extreme stretches like the A346.

Quoting Widebodyphotog (Reply 240):
Fishy...Airbus engineers say that making a composite fuselage for A350 would have only saved 560kg, but Al-Li skins for the A340-500/600 can make up the 51,000 and 18,000lb structural weight difference, and more, from their respective Boeing counterparts? If that's the case then that stuff should be called Mirac-Al-Li...

A and B always skew their numbers when it comes to "potential" weight savings. The airlines will do their own studies and the sales numbers speak for themselves.
 
User avatar
Asturias
Posts: 1977
Joined: Wed Apr 05, 2006 5:32 am

RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2?

Fri Apr 21, 2006 12:37 am

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 223):
However, you may be able to shine some light on this for me. I saw in a recent publication (I think FI) that the A400 will have an Al-Li fuselage. Is this a simple confusion with the 350 or have Airbus actully changed their minds and now going for Al-Li for the A400.

The A400M is not a 100% composite airliner, but for Airbus it is an evolutionary step in that direction. It utilizes more composites - mostly carbon fiber re-enforced plastics - than any Airbus model to date. 40% of the structural weight is composite, similar to the planned A350. Primary support structures, such as the skin, stringers, and frames, are made from Al-Li alloy, and is reinforced by composite material structures. Titanium alloys are used in highly loaded areas such as around the windscreen, the wing-to-fuselage attachment, and around the landing gear.

The wings of the A400M are almost completely made of composites, excepting the wing ribs then the ailerons, spoilers, spars and wing box are all composite. The propeller blades are made from composites as is the empennage.

Airbus isn't prepared to make a composite pressurised fuselage at the moment. They are going to let Boeing go first into that particular deep-end, so to speak, that much seems apparent.

I would hazard a guess no sooner than 2015, not until the B787 and A350 have been flying for a few years and experience with airliners made from large amount of composites (40%+) is established, especially the reliability and economy of the pressurized B787 fuselage. This isn't a race, and I think things are much more interesting this way.

Airbus are moving towards using composites more than ever, but not as fast as Boeing in the B787. Boeing jumps from about 10% composite usage in the B777 to 50%+ usage in the B787, while Airbus has been moving from the A300 with 5% composites, through the A330/A340 (10%), the A345/346 (20%), the A380 (28%) to the A350 (40%). Airbus is more conservative and take changes in small steps, it would seem to me.

cheers

Asturias

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