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Halibut
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Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Thu Apr 20, 2006 11:53 pm

Looks like Airbus is in a Dammed if you do Dammed if you don't situation !

I am coming to the conclusion that Airbus , regardless what they do , are now years behind Boeing in the widebody market .

Halibut



http://www.usatoday.com/money/indust...cturing/2006-04-16-a350-usat_x.htm


Airbus considers redesign of jetliner


By Dan Reed, USA TODAY
Criticism from customers has pushed Airbus to consider redesigning its planned A-350, the jetliner the European planemaker is counting on to compete directly with Boeing's ground-breaking, hot-selling 787 Dreamliner.

A costly redesign ~{!*~} which would be the fifth ~{!*~} could spell big trouble for Airbus, delaying the plane until 2012, four years after the expected availability of the Boeing plane.

Not an easy decision

Still, the decision to invest an additional $3 billion to $5 billion in redesigning the A-350 is not an automatic one for executives at Airbus and its corporate parent, EADS.

To invest in an A-350 redesign, Airbus may have to depend on government-backed loans, which likely would draw a legal challenge from Boeing and the United States at the World Trade Organization.

Airbus and EADS are facing other big cash drains. BAE, the longtime British partner in Airbus, last week said it wants to sell its 20% stake in the planemaker, worth up to $5 billion, back to EADS, which owns the other 80%.
Airbus Will Not Be Rushed On A350 Decision (by Leelaw Apr 20 2006 in Civil Aviation)


Breaking News Regarding Airbus's Pickle ! scratchchin 


http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...+North+American+CEO+Eccleston.html

The current debate over the future of the A350 programme started when ILFC chairman and chief executive Steven Udvar-Hazy in a 29 March speech at an aircraft finance conference in Orlando, Florida said Airbus must decide if it should settle on its current A350 offering - which is based on the A330 fuselage - and proceed with its already delayed launch schedule or pull the program and design an entirely new aircraft.

Halibut
6 million Jews were slaughtered-Do you see Jews flying planes into buildings in Germany to kill 1000s of innocent, NO !
 
co7772wuh
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Fri Apr 21, 2006 12:02 am

The point is that it makes no sense that Al-Li is that much lighter than the current high spec alloys or CFRP for that matter...IIRC Airbus engineering stated publicly that Al-Li use on the A350 will only save 8,000kg over aluminum and that was combined savings from Al-Li and composite structures...How in the world is Al-Li going to reduce the structural weight of the A340-500 by more than 51,000lbs (24,000Kg)?

Agreed Widebodyphotog,

How on earth is that possible ???

I think you're just a little off ...., " again " - Mr. Joni .
 
cricket
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Fri Apr 21, 2006 12:05 am

I don't think Airbus will allow the 150-300 seat market to become a Boeing monopoly, however it seems Airbus is facing the problems of being a multi-country owned organisation. I just whatever it does it makes a decision soon, which will be for the good of the entire industry.
No matter what the pro-Boeing types say, a monopoly isn't a good thing. And I like both guys after all.
 Smile
been there, flown that
 
deltadc9
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Fri Apr 21, 2006 1:13 am

Quoting Cricket (Reply 2):
No matter what the pro-Boeing types say, a monopoly isn't a good thing. And I like both guys after all.

Don't worry about a monopoly, the market is too big for that. Do worry about the players changing should one falter. Lockheed has the bucks and experience to move in should either player totally blow it, and so do many other companies in and out of the US. One thing I am not clear on is how vulnerable Airbus is to corporate raiders should they financially blow it, thier structure is just so different that what I am used to.

Airbus is just fine for the near future, but risk dropping back like MD did. All that means is the playing field is ripe for someone else. The A-350 is a critical fork in the road, should they do a "330NG" or a new plane. This is bigger than the decision to build the 380 in my opinion. Unless something new happens I think Airbus will at least break even on the 380 which will vindicate the program. Breaking even on the 350 is not enough, again in my opinion.

The 350 is a much bigger risk, its not about breaking even, its about market share. MD was never the same after losing the 707-DC8 war were they? And many say they had a better plane. Whereas the 380 is nowhere near as risky for Airbus as the 747 was for Boeing. Which scenario is repeating itself with the 350? That's the question. History does tend to repeat.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
Areopagus
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Fri Apr 21, 2006 1:44 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 3):
Airbus is just fine for the near future, but risk dropping back like MD did.

MD's problem was that time after time, management* looked at the costs and risks of a new program, gulped, and blinked. Airbus at least has management willing to keep spending to stay competitive.

*In St. Louis, anyway, and they had the upper hand.
 
deltadc9
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Fri Apr 21, 2006 2:52 am

Quoting Areopagus (Reply 4):
MD's problem was that time after time, management* looked at the costs and risks of a new program, gulped, and blinked. Airbus at least has management willing to keep spending to stay competitive.

Thats exactly what I'm saying, and my theory is that the 707-DC8 battle might be responsible for MD being gun shy. I am wondering if Airbus got gun shy on the 350, and all that bluster was a diversion from internal paralysis.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
Halibut
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Fri Apr 21, 2006 9:55 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 5):
Thats exactly what I'm saying, and my theory is that the 707-DC8 battle might be responsible for MD being gun shy. I am wondering if Airbus got gun shy on the 350, and all that bluster was a diversion from internal paralysis.

I am curious to what happened with airbus ??? Is it me or did something change in Airbus's mgmt after 2000 ?

Halibut
6 million Jews were slaughtered-Do you see Jews flying planes into buildings in Germany to kill 1000s of innocent, NO !
 
NAV20
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Fri Apr 21, 2006 12:01 pm

Quoting Halibut (Reply 6):
Is it me or did something change in Airbus's mgmt after 2000 ?

Halibut, EADS was set up in 2000. It split control of the company fifty-fifty between the French and German blocs, with each bloc appointing half the Board. And it also finally committed Airbus to the A380.

EADS formation was chaotic - this article gives some idea of the amount of confusion and double-dealing that went on. The net result appears to have been a company with too many built-in 'warring factions', and no-one clearly in charge.

"But this time, Schrempp wanted no failure--or, if there was failure, no one was to know about it. After the collapse of talks with the British, the press had clearly labeled Schrempp and DaimlerChrysler as the losers. So Schrempp and Lagardere now quickly agreed that negotiations would have to be conducted in the utmost secrecy. Only three executives from each side would be involved. For the Germans, it would be Schrempp and two top DaimlerChrysler executives, Eckhard Cordes and Rudiger Grube. Lagardere would be flanked by Matra CEO Philippe Camus, who had helped rescue him from financial disaster in the late 1980s, and Jean-Louis Gergorin, Matra's brainy head of strategy who had been a top adviser to the French Foreign Ministry.

"The French and German governments were kept in the dark. So were Dasa boss Manfred Bischoff, Airbus CEO Noel Forgeard, and the chairman and CEO of Aerospatiale, Yves Michot. Special high-frequency telephones Matra had developed for the French intelligence services were used for almost all important communications. And Schrempp himself came up with the code name for the top-secret project: Diamond. ''Schrempp explained that this time, the merger would be indestructible,'' says Gergorin.

"By the end of June, 1999, it was time to break the news to the French government, which retained a 48% stake in the privatized Aerospatiale Matra. On the evening of June 29, Lagardere was ushered into Jospin's hushed office in the Prime Minister's 17th century residence, the Hotel de Matignon. Only Jospin, Lagardere, and Strauss-Kahn were present. The Aerospatiale Matra chief revealed to a stunned Jospin the state of the secret negotiations with Schrempp. Neither Jospin nor Strauss-Kahn had had any idea that discussions were so advanced. ''Jospin was almost speechless,'' remembers Lagardere, ''but he was civil and polite.''

As soon as Lagardere left, though, Jospin blew up. Aerospatiale Matra had only come into existence on June 11. Now, just 18 days later, Lagardere was proposing a full merger with the Germans. And, under the pact, the French state's role was to disappear. The Prime Minister ''was furious about the idea of the government withdrawing totally from the company,'' remembers Strauss-Kahn.

But the politically astute Strauss-Kahn calmed down Jospin, who charged him in the following days with opening up back channels with the Germans. Soon, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder himself was involved."


http://www.businessweek.com/2000/00_28/b3689015.htm

Perhaps a company that, like the Bourbons, 'learns nothing and forgets nothing.?  Smile
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2

Fri Apr 21, 2006 3:31 pm

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 3):
Don't worry about a monopoly, the market is too big for that. Do worry about the players changing should one falter. Lockheed has the bucks and experience to move in should either player totally blow it, and so do many other companies in and out of the US.

Agreed.

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 3):
One thing I am not clear on is how vulnerable Airbus is to corporate raiders should they financially blow it, thier structure is just so different that what I am used to.

It's difficult to imagine anyone wanting to buy a failed Airbus. Many assets would be attractive, but the organization itself is more of an albatross -- even though it's been getting better. Given the political constraints, the organizational structure may have been the best that was possible at the time.
 
Joni
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Fri Apr 21, 2006 4:18 pm

Quoting Co7772wuh (Reply 1):
The point is that it makes no sense that Al-Li is that much lighter than the current high spec alloys or CFRP for that matter...IIRC Airbus engineering stated publicly that Al-Li use on the A350 will only save 8,000kg over aluminum and that was combined savings from Al-Li and composite structures...How in the world is Al-Li going to reduce the structural weight of the A340-500 by more than 51,000lbs (24,000Kg)?

Do you have a link where it's stated (the newest) Al-Li is lighter than CFRP? I recall linking a Boeing vp long ago, saying that in certain applications, Al-Li is lighter than composite structures but in others it's the other way around, which combined with Airbus' statement that the A350 could be 500kg lighter if made of 100% composites as opposed to the current mix, IMO indicates that in aircraft there are more structures where composites can be built lighter than Al-Li than the other way around.

With regard to the numbers you mentioned, naturally I haven't done them but I've just read in Flight International what I posted a link to in the "part 1" of this thread. However you can look at it this way: Consider that 60% of A350 is built of Al-Li and composites, which is reported to give 8t weight saving over some unspecified material (which may be newer/better than that used in A345 now, but let's not even consider that now). If we first scale it to 80% for an imagined 345E and further scale with the size difference of the planes (I used MTOW) then we get a saving of 24t. We could further consider that the structure of the two planes is different, which would increase or decrease this figure.

By the way, the plane most considered for this upgrade is IIRC the 346, not 345. And even further, referring to my post on the "part 1" thread, why on Earth would Airbus consider spending ��� on this kind of upgrade if the end result wasn't superior to the 777?
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2

Fri Apr 21, 2006 4:57 pm

Quoting Joni (Reply 9):
Do you have a link where it's stated (the newest) Al-Li is lighter than CFRP? I recall linking a Boeing vp long ago, saying that in certain applications, Al-Li is lighter than composite structures but in others it's the other way around, which combined with Airbus' statement that the A350 could be 500kg lighter if made of 100% composites as opposed to the current mix, IMO indicates that in aircraft there are more structures where composites can be built lighter than Al-Li than the other way around.

Al-Li has a slightly better strength/weight ratio than CFRP in compression, but CFRP is several times better than Al-Li in tension. So, the only structures which would be lighter using Al-Li than CFRP are those which sustain only compressive loads. I can't think of such a component on an aircraft, those there may be a few. It certainly would not be the fuselage barrel sections, which are mainly in tension when pressurized.
 
widebodyphotog
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Fri Apr 21, 2006 8:04 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10):
Al-Li has a slightly better strength/weight ratio than CFRP in compression, but CFRP is several times better than Al-Li in tension. So, the only structures which would be lighter using Al-Li than CFRP are those which sustain only compressive loads. I can't think of such a component on an aircraft, those there may be a few. It certainly would not be the fuselage barrel sections, which are mainly in tension when pressurized.

Correct, and for that reason CFRP construction on 787 allowed incredible weight reductions by being so inherently stiff that frame spacing could be increased from 21 to 24 inches, reducing significantly the number of ribs and floor beams in the fuselage...

Unfortunately for Airbus the "Enhanced" program for the A340 is dead as well as the four engine concept for aircraft in this capacity category...

If I had not made it clear before, I believe the Airbus conclusion that a CFRP fuselage for A350 would have only saved 560kg is just plain wrong. That is evident by the fact that composite 787-9 is 9t lighter than the noticeably smaller A350-800, and has a better structural weight/useful load ratio. The Airbus concept and methodology of composite fuselage construction must be completely different than the principles Boeing is operating on, otherwise the weights of relatively similar airframes, 787-9 and A350-800, would be much closer. In fact I'll go as far as saying that if the application of the Airbus CFRP analysis is correct then the A350-800 airframe should be much lighter than 787-9...but that is not the case...



-widebodyphotog
If you know what's really going on then you'll know what to do
 
Johnny
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Fri Apr 21, 2006 8:16 pm

After reading some posts the last weeks reference A350 and B787 i got one impression.

I am really happy that Airbus and Boeing both have very experienced engineers which, in opposition to some self-called experts on this page, know exactly what to do.

Some people here seem to be experts in nearly all airplane programmes and seem to know each detail.
Experts in avionics, wing and fuselage design, materials and other things like engines, flight planning, operations, fleet planning and crew limitations and so on...

I am really impressed.For me in my daily business it is hard to be an expert in only one of the obove mentioned areas...

P.S. Sorry for using the experts so often...  Wink
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Fri Apr 21, 2006 10:05 pm

Quoting Joni (Reply 9):
...why on Earth would Airbus consider spending (money) on this kind of upgrade if the end result wasn't superior to the 777?

Why did Boeing spend the cash to develop the 767-400ER, when they knew it wouldn't be superior to the A330-300? Because it kept two important Boeing customers "in the family" and those two customers are now likely candidates to order the 787 instead of the A350.

Airbus would not like IB, LH, VS, TG and other A346 customers moving to the 7773ER. While it is likely many of them won't, period, Airbus would have been as foolish as Boeing in the 1990's if they had just assumed those customers would never look elsewhere for aircraft.

In the end, the cost of developing the program seems to have not justified the benefits/orders that it would have provided. Airbus may have decided that enough A346 operators won't move to the 773ER, or they may fear that Boeing would sacrifice the 773ER for a 787-10HGW/787-11 and that plane would have put the A346E "behind the eightball" as much as the 773ER has the A346.
 
Johnny
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Fri Apr 21, 2006 10:16 pm

@stitch

The B767-400ER is no competitor to the A 330-300, but the -200.

It was not only designed for two airlines.It was designed for all airlines.

Boeing had orders from ILFC,GECAS,Delta,Continental and Kenia Airways (-400ERX)
They made a round-the world-trip to get more sales,but the truth was, that all airlines they met, ordered either the A332 or kept their old fleets.
The two leasing-companies canceled their orders together as soon as they realized that their was no market for that airplane.

Sorry, but the -400ER came some years too late to be a success.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 3:27 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 14):
The B767-400ER is no competitor to the A 330-300, but the -200.

I was aiming more for range, but yes, the A332 is the better match in terms of capacity to the 764ER, though the A332 has a significant range advantage.

Quote:
It was not only designed for two airlines.It was designed for all airlines.

Oh I am sure Boeing would like to have had more carriers then just DL and CO order it, but they must have decided those two were enough since they built it anyway with just those two customers.

Quote:
Sorry, but the -400ER came some years too late to be a success.

Some are saying the same about the (A350)-800 and -900... Though, for the record, I'm not one of them.
 
Halibut
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:13 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 9):
Do you have a link where it's stated (the newest) Al-Li is lighter than CFRP? I recall linking a Boeing vp long ago, saying that in certain applications, Al-Li is lighter than composite structures but in others it's the other way around, which combined with Airbus' statement that the A350 could be 500kg lighter if made of 100% composites as opposed to the current mix, IMO indicates that in aircraft there are more structures where composites can be built lighter than Al-Li than the other way around.

I'm not an aviation engineer . However , Airbus's very own " Noel Forgeard " recently stated the significance of composites . And from reading his thoughts on ultra lite aircraft , composites are the way to go .

Furthermore , he also mentioned the price of oil . How ironic , the last I checked today ! Oil was over $74 a barrel .  eek 

Bad for us !  faint 

But good for Boeing !



http://www.flightinternational.com/A...ats+200-order+target+for+A350.html

He says too that the price of fuel would be the main factor in determining how fast industry moves to developing an aircraft overwhelmingly built using composites. "If fuel is very expensive, you need an ultra-light aircraft, even if the cost of manufacture is higher," he says.

Airbus will spend €450 million ($540 million) in 2007-08 in developing composite technology. "Low cost industrial composites are the big challenge," he says. "But we will be ready to react."


Halibut
6 million Jews were slaughtered-Do you see Jews flying planes into buildings in Germany to kill 1000s of innocent, NO !
 
Halibut
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:43 am

Maybe Chew has a point ?

 scratchchin 


http://www.financialexpress.com/late...t_full_story.php?content_id=123419

Having gone to the trouble of designing a new wing, tail and cockpit using advanced composite materials, Airbus "should have gone the whole hog and designed a new fuselage," Chew said last week.

Halibut
6 million Jews were slaughtered-Do you see Jews flying planes into buildings in Germany to kill 1000s of innocent, NO !
 
EssentialPowr
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:55 am

Airbus has eventually built great products...but they got so enamored in simply besting Boeing that it will be their demise. A multinational conglomerate wanted to beat Boeing, so they used they same naming conventions, eventually conceded that deliveries meant more that orders as Boeing did, and then simply wanted to build the largest airliner in the world. Remember the early ads in AW&ST? They showed shopping malls, gyms, and other ridiculous concepts..."please get off the treadmill and got up 2 flights and aft 100 yards to put on your seat belt..." but the biggest was their focus...Despite all other issues, the wake sep issue kills the A380 for the US pax market. Freight operators fly at night, right? So no big deal there...but the freight market along won't along the A380 to break even.

And now a reworked wide body like the A350 just won't cut it. BAE wants out of the conglomerate...Unfortunately I give Airbus about 8 years.
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 12:59 pm

Quoting EssentialPowr (Reply 18):
And now a reworked wide body like the A350 just won't cut it.

I disagree. If Airbus can win 25% of the 3000 estimated total A350/B787 orders, then they can make money on the program. Remember, market share is the wrong goal. Profit is the right goal. If I were Airbus, I would be working on an all new aircraft a little bit larger in cross section than the B777 to replace the A340 and kill the B777 and the B747-8 SuperJumbo.

Quoting EssentialPowr (Reply 18):
Unfortunately I give Airbus about 8 years.

That's pesimistic. If Airbus can execute well on the NSR and the aircraft above, then they will survive modest profitability on the A350 and a loss on the WhaleJet.
 
Ken777
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:23 pm

Well, oil blew past $75 today. I believe that Airbus will stay with their current 350 plans, but it would be sadly ironic if they make that announcement on the day oil hit $78.70 . . .
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 4:31 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 19):
Quoting EssentialPowr (Reply 18):
Unfortunately I give Airbus about 8 years.

That's pesimistic. If Airbus can execute well on the NSR and the aircraft above, then they will survive modest profitability on the A350 and a loss on the WhaleJet.

A good post, Zvezda. Thanks.

Without wishing to play down Airbus's issues, I think it's a bit premature to write-off the company that still has (just) the biggest commercial aircraft order backlog by value that the world has ever seen just yet.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 19):
If Airbus can win 25% of the 3000 estimated total A350/B787 orders, then they can make money on the program. Remember, market share is the wrong goal. Profit is the right goal. If I were Airbus, I would be working on an all new aircraft a little bit larger in cross section than the B777 to replace the A340 and kill the B777 and the B747-8 SuperJumbo.

Agree again. It may be that Airbus resign themselves to the A350 being a "spoiler" for the 787 programme for an interim period, whilst at least breaking even on the programme, allowing time for the aircraft you mention above to be developed.

A
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2

Sat Apr 22, 2006 4:51 pm

Quoting EssentialPowr (Reply 18):
And now a reworked wide body like the A350 just won't cut it. BAE wants out of the conglomerate...Unfortunately I give Airbus about 8 years.

And why eight and not six, seven or nine?  Yeah sure

It's just ridiculous to conclude Airbus will completely disappear. We're talking about an established multi-billion global player and not an amateurish start-up venture.

Going into detail and learning more about the structures of Airbus and EADS could help a bit...


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
leelaw
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 7:29 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 21):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 19):
If Airbus can win 25% of the 3000 estimated total A350/B787 orders, then they can make money on the program. Remember, market share is the wrong goal. Profit is the right goal. If I were Airbus, I would be working on an all new aircraft a little bit larger in cross section than the B777 to replace the A340 and kill the B777 and the B747-8 SuperJumbo.

Agree again. It may be that Airbus resign themselves to the A350 being a "spoiler" for the 787 programme for an interim period, whilst at least breaking even on the programme, allowing time for the aircraft you mention above to be developed.

Perhaps, but it still doesn't explain why Udvar-Hazy of ILFC, with the apparent backing of a faction within Airbus, decided to "drop the dime" on the A350? What would be "their beef" with 25% of 3000?
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
Halibut
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:01 pm

Looks as though the author of this article saw the " Pickle " some 11 months ago . It's obvious now , that Noel Forgeard sees that 787 & composites much differently !!!

 scratchchin 

Halibut



http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,360417,00.html


June 14, 2005 Print | Send this article | Feedback


FALLING BEHIND BOEING

Airbus A350 No Match for Dreamliner


For a long time, Airbus didn't take Boeing's 787 "Dreamliner" project seriously. Now, with the American model selling much better than Airbus's planes, the company is being forced to react. Unfortunately, the company doesnt have the time, money or manpower to create a competing jet.

One year ago, Noel Forgeard was still flying high. When asked to comment on the announcement of chief rival Boeing's plans to introduce the long-haul, super-efficient 787 Dreamliner jet, the Airbus chief responded: "We don't need to react to the presentation of this plane."
6 million Jews were slaughtered-Do you see Jews flying planes into buildings in Germany to kill 1000s of innocent, NO !
 
trex8
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:54 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 23):
Perhaps, but it still doesn't explain why Udvar-Hazy of ILFC, with the apparent backing of a faction within Airbus, decided to "drop the dime" on the A350? What would be "their beef" with 25% of 3000?

gaining market share usually but not always also translates into a even more profits, but while there will always be those who see market share "at any price" as the goal, there will also be those who see profit and other long term goals as more important than a specific market share for one specific market. this is A's dilemma, accept a "lower" yet still potentially profitable market share with the A350 and come up with a potential 787/777 killer in the future or cancel it now, let Boeing take the whole market in that segment for a few years and then come up with their 787/777 killer. There is ample recent historical precedence that having high production rates can cost you an arm and a leg financially, but you do preserve market share!
 
leelaw
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 9:17 pm

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 25):
Quoting Leelaw (Reply 23):
Perhaps, but it still doesn't explain why Udvar-Hazy of ILFC, with the apparent backing of a faction within Airbus, decided to "drop the dime" on the A350? What would be "their beef" with 25% of 3000?

gaining market share usually but not always also translates into a even more profits, but while there will always be those who see market share "at any price" as the goal, there will also be those who see profit and other long term goals as more important than a specific market share for one specific market. this is A's dilemma, accept a "lower" yet still potentially profitable market share with the A350 and come up with a potential 787/777 killer in the future or cancel it now, let Boeing take the whole market in that segment for a few years and then come up with their 787/777 killer. There is ample recent historical precedence that having high production rates can cost you an arm and a leg financially, but you do preserve market share!

Why would Udvar-Hazy give a hoot about Airbus maximizing market share if he thought a 25% market share was a realistic goal, which meant a viable and "potentially" profitable A350 program in the future? IMO, you still haven't explained why Udvar-Hazy decided to "drop the dime" on the A350.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
trex8
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 9:27 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 26):
Why would Udvar-Hazy give a hoot about Airbus maximizing market share if he thought a 25% market share was a realistic goal, which meant a viable and "potentially" profitable A350 program in the future? IMO, you still haven't explained why Udvar-Hazy decided to "drop the dime" on the A350.

well if you really want to know you'll have to ask him but one obvious answer is he wants to preserve the value of his few A350 orders and he does not want Boeing to have a monopoly or even dominance on this market segment so he can get better prices on his 787s.
he is possibly as some have suggested playing some role in this intra Airbus corporate tug of war as to the future of the A350.
 
leelaw
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 9:55 pm

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 27):
one obvious answer is he wants to preserve the value of his few A350 orders

If achieving a 25% market share in a 3000 aircraft market, with the A350 as it's currently proposed, is a worthwhile and potentially profitable enterprise for Airbus which would sustain the A350 program into the future, why would Udvar-Hazy be concerned about the long-term residual value of the aircraft he already has on order?
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
trex8
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:21 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 28):
If achieving a 25% market share in a 3000 aircraft market, with the A350 as it's currently proposed, is a worthwhile and potentially profitable enterprise for Airbus which would sustain the A350 program into the future, why would Udvar-Hazy be concerned about the long-term residual value of the aircraft he already has on order?

it may be profitable for A to produce only several hundred planes but if in a market segment that is the minority product, it may make those planes have lower residual values than the majority product. GM could make a profitable subcompact (ok so thats never going to happen ! Smile) and have a tiny share of the market compared to Toyota, which product will likely have higher resale value in the future??
 
EssentialPowr
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:29 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 19):
If I were Airbus, I would be working on an all new aircraft a little bit larger in cross section than the B777 to replace the A340 and kill the B777 and the B747-8 SuperJumbo.

???

Airbus doesn't have the funding for the loss on the A380, a rework/abandonment of the A350, and to start a completely new program. No way...
 
leelaw
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:35 pm

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 29):
t may be profitable for A to produce only several hundred planes but if in a market segment that is the minority product, it may make those planes have lower residual values than the majority product.

Would this be a case of marginally lower v. dramatically lower residual values? Udvar-Hazy must fear dramatically lower residual values? Wouldn't it be a hard sell for Airbus if customers feared being saddled with dramatically lower residual values from the get-go?
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
trex8
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:39 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 31):
Would this be a case of marginally lower v. dramatically lower residual values? Udvar-Hazy must fear dramatically lower residual values? Wouldn't it be a hard sell for Airbus if customers feared being saddled with dramatically lower residual values from the get-go?

to be honest if I were UH I would be more worried about a Boeing monopoly than a residual value problem. residual values are certainly an important but only one of many factors in the total cost equation.
 
NAV20
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:41 pm

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 25):
this is A's dilemma, accept a "lower" yet still potentially profitable market share with the A350 and come up with a potential 787/777 killer in the future or cancel it now, let Boeing take the whole market in that segment for a few years and then come up with their 787/777 killer.



Quoting Leelaw (Reply 28):
achieving a 25% market share in a 3000 aircraft market, with the A350 as it's currently proposed

There seems to be quite a concensus forming around the notion that Airbus' market share in this sector will 'bottom out' at say 25%. That would be all well and good if we were talking about a normal market with lots of competing firms - the old notion of 'perfect competition'.

But in fact we are looking at a 'duopoly' - just two firms producing comparable products at comparable prices, each having 50% of the market. Doupoly holds that neither firm can break out of the stranglehold unless it succeeds either in producing higher-quality goods at the same cost, or goods of equal quality at lower cost.

All the evidence is that, in the 787/A350 sector, Boeing look like hitting the jackpot; the 787 is a significantly-better product and (going on the respective list prices, anyway) Boeing can afford to offer it at a lower price than Airbus can achieve for the A350.

Given that there's a real-life duopoly, classical economic theory would hold that eventually a 'winner take all' situation will ensue. Specifically, Boeing, since they're able to offer BOTH higher quality and lower prices over an extended period, will wind up winning the whole 250-320-seat market; and Airbus will finish up with virtually none of it.

Funny - I learned about 'duopoly' (as a purely theoretical concept) more years ago than I care to remember. It's an odd feeling to see the theory very possibly working out in practice - especially on a scale like this.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
trex8
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:02 pm

I don't think a winner take all will happen because while the 787 economics seem wonderful, for some smaller A operators the commonality issues may make it a tie, and Boeing is too greedy and will shaft the customers if they can get away with it (vis 767 tanker lease - if they will do it to their own country why won't they do it to some foreign airline?)) and this will drive some customers to A.
whether its 80/20, 90/10 or whatever the market is sufficiently large that even a few hundred sales of even a "stopgap" A350 will be worth A's time and money.
its debatable whether B can actually increase production rates to the levels they may eventually need for a monopoly given their dependence now on outside suppliers
 
leelaw
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:02 pm

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 32):
to be honest if I were UH I would be more worried about a Boeing monopoly than a residual value problem.

ILFC can probably live with marginally lower residual values for one aircraft v. the competitors offering; and a marketplace where the competing OEMs aren't at parity, but there's still meaningful, if not optimal, price competition. However, isn't the fear that Boeing will gain monopoly or hegemony power over this market segment motivating Udvar-Hazy to challenge Airbus on the viability A350 in the marketplace as it's currently conceived?
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
trex8
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:05 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 35):
However, isn't the fear that Boeing will gain monopoly or hegemony power over this market segment motivating Udvar-Hazy to challenge Airbus on the viability A350 in the marketplace as it's currently conceived?

thats where my money will be as to the real reasons for his utterances!
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2

Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:09 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 33):
Specifically, Boeing, since they're able to offer BOTH higher quality and lower prices over an extended period, will wind up winning the whole 250-320-seat market; and Airbus will finish up with virtually none of it.

Funny - I learned about 'duopoly' (as a purely theoretical concept) more years ago than I care to remember. It's an odd feeling to see the theory very possibly working out in practice - especially on a scale like this.

Now after learning what is "very possibly" to happen, we will soon read the first thread discussing when all these A350 customers will drop their orders and switch entirely to Boeing, leaving a big "0" in the Airbus order book. Shortly after, another thread will follow, discussing when Airbus may close its last production line for mid-sized and large widebody jets.

And it's not an odd feeling at all to guess who will very possibly tell us all the ultimate answers...


PH

[Edited 2006-04-22 16:10:58]
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
Tifoso
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2

Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:23 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 35):
However, isn't the fear that Boeing will gain monopoly or hegemony power over this market segment motivating Udvar-Hazy to challenge Airbus on the viability A350 in the marketplace as it's currently conceived?

I doubt Udvar-Hazy would be as concerned if the roles were reversed, i.e. 787 was getting its ass kicked by the A350.

Boeing's limit on the number of sales to lease companies is probably at least partially responsible for UH's comments about the A350. If the 787 does indeed have significantly better economics, airlines may decide to purchase directly from Boeing, and not lease from ILFC!

That and the residual value would be his two primary concerns.
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:01 am

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 25):
gaining market share usually but not always also translates into a even more profits

When one gains market share by improving productivity, profits go up. When one gains market share by cutting prices, profits can go up or down.

Quoting EssentialPowr (Reply 30):
Airbus doesn't have the funding for the loss on the A380, a rework/abandonment of the A350, and to start a completely new program.

While I don't expect the WhaleJet program to ever recoup its development costs, it will go from cash-flow negative to cash-flow positive within the next 12 months unless airlines start cancelling WhaleJet orders.

Also, Airbus can borrow money in the capital markets just like everyone else.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 33):

Given that there's a real-life duopoly, classical economic theory would hold that eventually a 'winner take all' situation will ensue. Specifically, Boeing, since they're able to offer BOTH higher quality and lower prices over an extended period, will wind up winning the whole 250-320-seat market; and Airbus will finish up with virtually none of it.

That doesn't work in this case because productivity in airliner manufacture depends on steady production rates. To the extent Boeing have a backlog, the A350 becomes more attractive because it will (in future years) be available sooner.
 
flydreamliner
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sun Apr 23, 2006 3:24 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 39):

That doesn't work in this case because productivity in airliner manufacture depends on steady production rates. To the extent Boeing have a backlog, the A350 becomes more attractive because it will (in future years) be available sooner.

I'm confident Boeing can ramp production up, and will only get smoother as production rolls on. With fuel prices where they are however, my guess is airlines won't pick to buy a fleet simply because they can get it a couple years earlier. It might sway a couple, but very few.....


With current backlogs, and the 3-4 years A350 is behind 787, and Boeing's newwer, faster production method, you might be able to get a 787 before an A350, and a 787 has a lower list price (not that Airbus won't discount like crazy)
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
EssentialPowr
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sun Apr 23, 2006 3:27 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 39):
While I don't expect the WhaleJet program to ever recoup its development costs, it will go from cash-flow negative to cash-flow positive within the next 12 months unless airlines start cancelling WhaleJet orders.

-That may happen in the case of AF per the 3 Apr 06 issue of AW&ST, pg 28, in which they may end up rejecting the 10 A380s on order, + 4 options, for either the 748 or 777.


[quote=Zvezda,reply=39]Also, Airbus can borrow money in the capital markets just like everyone else.

-That becomes a very risky proposition from and investor standpoint when they're in for a loss on the A380, and then have to get billions more to replace the A350 (which has had significant $$ invested and will probably be written off..). The A320 will need replacement funding starting about now too. This is an incredibly cost intensive industry, and a major product that didn't capture 40%-50% of the market was the end of McDAC and the MD11...gov't funding is always available though.
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sun Apr 23, 2006 3:45 am

Quoting EssentialPowr (Reply 41):
That may happen in the case of AF per the 3 Apr 06 issue of AW&ST, pg 28, in which they may end up rejecting the 10 A380s on order, + 4 options, for either the 748 or 777.

Has this been previously mentioned on A.net? If Airlines start cancelling their WhaleJet orders, then Airbus' A350 problems are going to seem like the smallest of inconveniences.

When I wrote here last year that there was a chance of WhaleJet cancellations, some of the Airbus cheerleaders had rather nasty things to say.
 
atmx2000
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sun Apr 23, 2006 3:55 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 21):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 19):If Airbus can win 25% of the 3000 estimated total A350/B787 orders, then they can make money on the program. Remember, market share is the wrong goal. Profit is the right goal. If I were Airbus, I would be working on an all new aircraft a little bit larger in cross section than the B777 to replace the A340 and kill the B777 and the B747-8 SuperJumbo.

Agree again. It may be that Airbus resign themselves to the A350 being a "spoiler" for the 787 programme for an interim period, whilst at least breaking even on the programme, allowing time for the aircraft you mention above to be developed.

The A350 won't win 25% of the orders for over two decades if the 787 and A350 end up being what they are current advertised as. Maybe 6-8 years at the most, with the front end higher and the back end lower. Airbus will have to come up with something new afterwards. We are talking about a market of 1000 to 1200 planes at most during that time. 250 to 300 aircraft doesn't seem like enough to do anything other than recoup development costs, but that is assuming that you have pricing power parity adjusted to production costs, which Airbus likely won't if it can only achieve 25% of the market.

There is the danger that the A350 could end up facing the fate of the A340NG, though I would discount that since it is unlikely that the shorter, twin A350 will face the aerodynamic penalties of the long quad A340NGs, and the A350 has engine parity with the 787 for the most part, unlike the A340NG with the 777LR. The weight penalty alone wouldn't make the A350 as unattractive as the A340NG in relation to the competition. On the other hand, the 787 appears to have a better X+1 abreast configuration than the 777, so that is an advantage that the 787 has over the A350 which wasn't as strong for the 777 over the A340NG.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
787engineer
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:50 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 9):

Do you have a link where it's stated (the newest) Al-Li is lighter than CFRP? I recall linking a Boeing vp long ago, saying that in certain applications, Al-Li is lighter than composite structures but in others it's the other way around, which combined with Airbus' statement that the A350 could be 500kg lighter if made of 100% composites as opposed to the current mix, IMO indicates that in aircraft there are more structures where composites can be built lighter than Al-Li than the other way around.

You keep bringing up this point, Joni. Haven't you read all the posts that basically debunks the theory that CFRP only has minimal weight savings. The 787 and A350s listed weights speak for themselves. I don't think Airbus ever said 'if the plane was 100% composites', the last time I saw you quote this it was referring to just the fuselage. The fact is we don't know if this 500kg weight savings was done by just replacing the Al-alloy skin panels with composites or making entire barrel sections out of essentially one piece of composite. That makes an enormous difference in weight savings and structural rigidity. Most airplane elements are in tension, and that's where composites excel. I would trust each airplane's respective target weights more than these advantage claims which can be twisted one way or another depending on how their are calculated.

Quoting Joni (Reply 9):

By the way, the plane most considered for this upgrade is IIRC the 346, not 345. And even further, referring to my post on the "part 1" thread, why on Earth would Airbus consider spending ��� on this kind of upgrade if the end result wasn't superior to the 777?

Maybe so there isn't a big disparity in efficiency/performance between the A346 and 773? Airbus would definitely consider upgrading an aircraft if they determined if it was worthwhile financially even if it meant their plane wasn't superior to the competitors.

Quoting Halibut (Reply 17):
Having gone to the trouble of designing a new wing, tail and cockpit using advanced composite materials, Airbus "should have gone the whole hog and designed a new fuselage," Chew said last week.

No disrespect to Mr. Chew, but he may not be all that clear on how much work (and time) goes into a new fuselage cross section. It makes perfect sense when you say: Airbus has done so much why not a little more for a new fuselage. But a new fuselage would nullify a fair portion of the work already done. Also, when Airbus says a new wing and tail, don't think they design it from scratch. If I'm not mistaken, the A350 wing is derived from the A330, and I'm sure the tail is probably a combination/derivative of the A300/310/330/340 tails. The 787's tail is considered "new" but is largely based on the 777 and 767.

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 31):

Would this be a case of marginally lower v. dramatically lower residual values? Udvar-Hazy must fear dramatically lower residual values? Wouldn't it be a hard sell for Airbus if customers feared being saddled with dramatically lower residual values from the get-go?

The 777 program had the most airline involvement of any Boeing program to date (airline execs, pilots, flight attendants, and maintenace crews from all over the world). The 787 program tried to maintain the same level of involvement but also focused heavily on the financial institutions, including how to improve the residual value of the aircraft. Many improvements were made and a good example is the common engine pylon. I think residual value of the A350 is a big concern for U-H.

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 34):
its debatable whether B can actually increase production rates to the levels they may eventually need for a monopoly given their dependence now on outside suppliers

It isn't so much dependence on outside suppliers as it is the world's limited production capacity of aerospace grade titanium. Boeing has been successful (for the most part) in negotiating with the partners (MHI, Alenia, KHI, HDH, etc) to be ready to increase production if Boeing decides to go forward with it.
 
AvObserver
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sun Apr 23, 2006 7:44 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 44):
No disrespect to Mr. Chew, but he may not be all that clear on how much work (and time) goes into a new fuselage cross section. It makes perfect sense when you say: Airbus has done so much why not a little more for a new fuselage. But a new fuselage would nullify a fair portion of the work already done.

This is why I don't think Airbus will junk the current A350 design. They'd throw out all of the cost savings derived from being able to use the same production jigs as the A330/340, not to mention the considerable cost of designing a new fuselage. Given jeopardizing current A350 orders and the long further delay until EIS, I don't think it makes sense with all the other market areas Airbus must address. They'll tweak it further for better performance but I highly doubt scrapping the current model is in the cards. The extra money that would cost needs to be put into either a major upgrade of the A340 or toward a replacement for it. The A320 will also need a major upgrade when Boeing decides to field a 737NG replacement. An all-new eventual A350 replacement tied to an A340 replacement makes sense down the road but, for now, Airbus should just lower the A350's price and get whatever sales it can, blue-chip carriers or not. Recontouring the cabin for more head/shoulder room without altering the cross-section might partly mitigate some criticisms, though not by much but lowering the price enough might do more. Although less than optimal, abandoning the existing design entirely would result in too long a delay in reaching service entry to much blunt the 787's initial sales surge and to take advantage of customers unwilling to wait for later 787 production slots. Airbus needs to go forward with the A350 pretty much NOW!
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sun Apr 23, 2006 9:09 am

Quoting AvObserver (Reply 46):
lowering the price enough might do more

Don't you think they've already lowered the prices as much as posssible? After all they have $5 billion in development costs to recoup, not to mention material, labor and overhead.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
CWFan
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sun Apr 23, 2006 12:16 pm

If Airbus does leave the 350 as is, and then as quick as possible develops a 360 plane to replace the 340-5/600 and compete with the 77W and 748, how will Boeing respond? Let's assume that the 360 is a twin-engine jet, uses lots of composites (either for fuselage or not) and the development priority is slotted ahead of the 320 replacement. How will B respond?
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:35 pm

Quoting CWFan (Reply 48):
If Airbus does leave the 350 as is, and then as quick as possible develops a 360 plane to replace the 340-5/600 and compete with the 77W and 748, how will Boeing respond? Let's assume that the 360 is a twin-engine jet, uses lots of composites (either for fuselage or not) and the development priority is slotted ahead of the 320 replacement. How will B respond?

That depends on a number of factors, such as whether Airbus use the GE90-115s or ask GE, PW, and RR to develop new engines.

If I were Boeing, I would not accelerate Y3. I would respond with a B787-11X. I would have the B737RS ready to go as soon as engines are ready. After the A360X, B787-11X, and B737RS are flying in commercial service, I would think long and hard about going forward with Y3 or a B787-12X.

Note that a 400 passenger A360X with lower CASM than the B787-10 would kill the WhaleJet stone cold dead. Airbus can hardly even discuss such a plane now for fear of WhaleJet order cancellations.
 
co7772wuh
Posts: 381
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RE: Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II

Sun Apr 23, 2006 9:08 pm

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 37):
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 33):
Specifically, Boeing, since they're able to offer BOTH higher quality and lower prices over an extended period, will wind up winning the whole 250-320-seat market; and Airbus will finish up with virtually none of it.

Funny - I learned about 'duopoly' (as a purely theoretical concept) more years ago than I care to remember. It's an odd feeling to see the theory very possibly working out in practice - especially on a scale like this.


Now after learning what is "very possibly" to happen, we will soon read the first thread discussing when all these A350 customers will drop their orders and switch entirely to Boeing, leaving a big "0" in the Airbus order book. Shortly after, another thread will follow, discussing when Airbus may close its last production line for mid-sized and large widebody jets.

And it's not an odd feeling at all to guess who will very possibly tell us all the ultimate answers...

NAV20's comments may frustrate & anger some AB fans , however he is accurate . Judging from the final count for 2005 , it's rather obvious . It looks as though there was a "duopoly" in the widebogy market .

I do not feel things will materialize as drasticly as you sarcasticly said Planehunter nor do I feel NAV20 was insunuating what you stated either . However , it is obvious that AB's offerings in the mid-size market are very limited & things will be rather dire for AB for the foreseeable future in that segmint .

NAV20 provides proof to back up his comments , while some others can only contribute with the use of sarcasim . NAV20 saw this A350/Airbus problem coming some time ago . To those who are angered by NAV20 : Try not to take it so personaly , he has a right to speak his mind .

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