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airlanka
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Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Fri May 05, 2006 12:09 pm

Peter Hill is commenting on UL fleet upgrade plans and they are talking to Boeing as well. B777-200, -300 or Airbus A340-600. I just can't comprehend as to why they are thinking of 777(may be the capacity). They should be looking at 787. After QF decision I think 787 is looking good. But Emirates wants to offload 20 Airbus 340-600 order and UL may take that one up and keep the full fleet of Airbus. A320's are also in need of an upgrade and according to the report A320 may remain as the choice for short haul with new aircraft of the same type.

Interesting to see where they go.

Airlanka
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newagebird
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Fri May 05, 2006 12:46 pm

Yes it is interesting
I dont see a big expansion but defiinitely an upgrade is required. The A340s are around 7 years old now but there are still a couple from 2003 although they are on lease. The A320s are definitely the oldest aircraft however they were delivered in 1999. They should be looking at the A350 program or the B787 program to replace their A340s nearing 2010. The A320s no doubt should be refurbished with IFE and if i was to predict their choice between the A350 and B787 program. It would definitely be the A350, easier to train their pilots compared to buying an aircraft ffrom a company who they havent done business with in years. Remember the B747-200  Wink

In regards to the A340-600, definitely not, too big a loss as they wont fill them up and 20 of these huge aircraft are way too much for such a small carrier

cheer
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bill142
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Fri May 05, 2006 12:51 pm

Remember EK have an interest in UL so some of the EK A346 order could be transferred to UL. What EK does could play a role in what UL does.
 
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eksath
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Fri May 05, 2006 12:56 pm

Quoting Bill142 (Reply 2):
Remember EK have an interest in UL so some of the EK A346 order could be transferred to UL. What EK does could play a role in what UL does.

The entire management team at UL is from EK (Peter Hill included). EK has a 40+% stake in UL. Thus, EK has a huge influence on UL

In the past EK has picked up atleast one A330 that UL did not want because of downturn post July 2001 (when Tamil terrorists destroyed 4 planes and effected UL's to tourist traffic).
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zvezda
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Fri May 05, 2006 1:06 pm

I'm inclined to agree with Newagebird. I think the A340-600 would be too large for UL. The A350/B787 would be a better choice.
 
FlySSC
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Fri May 05, 2006 5:36 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 4):
I think the A340-600 would be too large for UL

100% agree.
UL doesn't need such a large plane, nor B773 or A345.
Their A340 & A330 are far from being old and don't need a replacement before many years. They could order some B772ER and/or 787, but considering they operate also some A320, I would rather see an order for additional A33X or A350.
 
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Fri May 05, 2006 6:39 pm

I think the A345 is probably as large as they would wish to go, and may not be a bad fit for them as it would allow non-stop US flights (though not sure EK would want this as it may dilute their own Dubai non-stops) and would certainly be more capable on the European routes where the A343 isnt enough - certainly on the LHR routes.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
zvezda
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B78

Fri May 05, 2006 6:48 pm

I can't imagine that nonstop A340-500 ops CMB-USA would be profitable. The flights would be expensive to operate and the yields would be very low. The A340-500 is probably an even worse fit for UL than the A340-600.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Fri May 05, 2006 7:06 pm

No - the A346 is too big - it is too much plane, but the A345 will bring a big enough jump in capacity over the A343 to make it ideal for Europe where they carry A LOT of cargo and the extra uplift capacity would be of benefit. UL could fill a 744 or A346 CMB-LHR in my opinion, but probably not to anywhere else. The A345 isnt that big a stretch over the A343.

A332 and A345 makes sense in the very short term for their long/medium-haul stuff, but I agree the A350 would be the one stop answer for UL if they are to remain Airbus loyal.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
FlySSC
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Fri May 05, 2006 7:07 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 6):
I think the A345 is probably as large as they would wish to go, and may not be a bad fit for them as it would allow non-stop US flights

The A345 is designed for ultra long range operations. I doubt UL will ever fly nonstop CMB-USA one day !

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 6):
would certainly be more capable on the European routes where the A343 isnt enough - certainly on the LHR routes.

More frequencies to European destinations would be much better than a bigger aircraft with 1, 2 or 3 x Weekly frequencies, as it is actually.
The A332 and A333 are perfectly designed for that kind of traffic.

[Edited 2006-05-05 12:20:07]
 
zvezda
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Fri May 05, 2006 7:10 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 8):
A332 and A345 makes sense in the very short term for their long/medium-haul stuff, but I agree the A350 would be the one stop answer for UL if they are to remain Airbus loyal.

UL might be able to operate the A340-500 economically to Europe -- IF they can pick some up at firesale prices (from SQ perhaps) -- but not to the States.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Fri May 05, 2006 7:16 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 8):
A332 and A345 makes sense in the very short term for their long/medium-haul stuff, but I agree the A350 would be the one stop answer for UL if they are to remain Airbus loyal.

UL might be able to operate the A340-500 economically to Europe -- IF they can pick some up at firesale prices (from SQ perhaps) -- but not to the States.

What i'm saying is that a US service may be something they may well look at if they had A345s in the fleet that I think would be a good fit for Europe, and also certainly the A345 would be ideal if they wanted to re-start Australia flights. It wouldnt mean adding a fleet type and the costs that go with it - there are political bonusses to serving the US, and this could play a part. Would it work? There's no doubt the demand for flights would be there, but like you say, yields may not be all that good.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
behramjee
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Fri May 05, 2006 11:09 pm

If I had a say with ULs fleet planning decision, I would definitely not order any A 345s/346s because they are not needed. The A 346 is too big for UL to fly on any of its route on a year round basis and like someone earlier on said, there is no use to get A 345s for NYC nonstops as it will be a highly unprofitable route to fly.

ULs A 343s were delivered between 1994-96 and the A 332s followed from 1996-97 onwards thus making them only 10 years old approximately each aircraft.

If UL want extra capacity, they can get used A 332s/A 343s from somewhere using EKs influence as interim capacity till 2011-12.

Now as far as a replacement is concerned for its A 332/A 343 fleet in the future, I would make UL go for the B 787-900 to replace the A 332 and the new Boeing 787-100X (300 seater) to replace the A 343s. I wouldnt go for the A 350 until Airbus makes radical fuel efficiency and design changes to the aircraft which was the main complaint of EK, GECAS and ILFC.

I would choose the B 787 because it can be delivered in 2011-13 time frame, has the required pax+cargo capacity + good resale value due to its recent success with large orders + nonstop flying range on ULs key long haul routes to Japan and UK nonstop from CMB.

If UL want to fly to USA then it shouldnt be nonstop but ONE STOP via a EU city if bilaterals permit it.
 
ScottB
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Fri May 05, 2006 11:40 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 11):
What i'm saying is that a US service may be something they may well look at if they had A345s in the fleet

Why do you continue to repeat this drivel when the fact is that it's extremely unlikely that there would be the traffic or yield to make non-stop CMB-U.S.A. flights viable? Why would they "look at" US service just because they had A345's?!

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 11):
and also certainly the A345 would be ideal if they wanted to re-start Australia flights

Um, in a word, NO. The A332 (or the 787 or A350) can easily make CMB-SYD with just ETOPS 120. And why would they purpose an expensive new fleet type to a route which isn't being flown now?
 
DIA
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sat May 06, 2006 12:00 am

I hear whispers of a 787-10 sale pitch here. I'd still bet SriLankan goes with Airbus, though.
Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
 
zizou
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sat May 06, 2006 12:26 am

I don't think there is a real need to get new aircrafts, add to that the agreement with Emirates is soon to end and then Sri Lankan can't do whats best for them.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sat May 06, 2006 12:34 am

Quoting ScottB (Reply 13):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 11):
What i'm saying is that a US service may be something they may well look at if they had A345s in the fleet

Why do you continue to repeat this drivel when the fact is that it's extremely unlikely that there would be the traffic or yield to make non-stop CMB-U.S.A. flights viable? Why would they "look at" US service just because they had A345's?!

Since when has your OPINION had to be regarded by everyone on this forum as FACT?

The FACT of the matter is, that if they have the equipment to do it, it will be something they will look at and discuss - they are EK-Managed - you can bet your bottom Dollar that they will be switched on to EVERY potential opportunity. If they could work out a way of eeking a profit out of it, they would. They would certainly consider it - i've said they would look at it - nothing more. Try decaf with it next time mate.  Wink
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sat May 06, 2006 12:38 am

Quoting ScottB (Reply 13):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 11):
and also certainly the A345 would be ideal if they wanted to re-start Australia flights

Um, in a word, NO. The A332 (or the 787 or A350) can easily make CMB-SYD with just ETOPS 120. And why would they purpose an expensive new fleet type to a route which isn't being flown now?

So you are saying the A345 is NOT ideal for India/Sri Lanka - Australia flights?

The A345 is NOT more capable than the A332/343 that UL already has on such a sector? You sure about that one fella?
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
swissgabe
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sat May 06, 2006 3:07 am

I'm very sorry to say that, but I absolutely don't understand why UL would replace their current fleet of 320/332/343s at all. No doubt some of their products need an upgrade, especially when it comes to the current C class on the long haul fleet. The Cabin on the 320 eg does still fit very good for flights to India and other regional countries.

Also given to current political situation in Sri Lanka a short or mid-term fleet replacement would be the most stupid thing UL could do now.

I also feel like UL should concentrate on their current network and boost the current network where money can or is being made.
Smooth as silk - Royal Orchid Service /// Suid-Afrikaanse Lugdiens - Springbok
 
behramjee
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sat May 06, 2006 3:39 am

Quoting Swissgabe (Reply 18):
I'm very sorry to say that, but I absolutely don't understand why UL would replace their current fleet of 320/332/343s at all. No doubt some of their products need an upgrade, especially when it comes to the current C class on the long haul fleet. The Cabin on the 320 eg does still fit very good for flights to India and other regional countries.

UL are not looking to replace their fleet from now...but from 2011 onwards!!! By that time their A 343s will be 16 years old and A 332s 13-14 years old each respectively.
 
A342
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sat May 06, 2006 5:07 am

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 12):
they can get used A 332s/A 343s from somewhere using EKs influence

The problem is: There are none on the market now ! And even EK can't do anything about it. They need their aircraft themselves.
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
KL808
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sat May 06, 2006 5:19 am

Speaking as an arm chair CEO, I would just upgrade the cabins of the whole fleet.

Then in the mean time let Airbus shape the A350 to its final stage then decide which aircraft would be needed, whether A350 or B787.

A345's would be a good aircraft for european routes to increase cargo capacity.

Drew
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A342
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sat May 06, 2006 5:27 am

Quoting KL808 (Reply 21):
A345's would be a good aircraft for european routes to increase cargo capacity.

Hardly. The A343 actually holds 2 LD3s more than the A345. And to Europe, the A343 is operating below its max. payload range.
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
stealthpilot
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sat May 06, 2006 8:32 am

Doesn’t EK stake in UL expire in 2008, and I heard that the contract wasn’t going to be renewed?
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eksath
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sat May 06, 2006 10:21 am

Anybody know the load factor on UL?

They have the most number of flights of a foreign airline to India. I believe that is around 100 total to many Indian cities. This seems to have successfully routed Indian traffic thru CMB. The last time i flew UL in July, it was full of Indians returning home from USA and Europe. Perhaps the bigger capacity is needed for them?


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swissgabe
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sat May 06, 2006 6:29 pm

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 19):
Quoting Swissgabe (Reply 18):
I'm very sorry to say that, but I absolutely don't understand why UL would replace their current fleet of 320/332/343s at all. No doubt some of their products need an upgrade, especially when it comes to the current C class on the long haul fleet. The Cabin on the 320 eg does still fit very good for flights to India and other regional countries.

UL are not looking to replace their fleet from now...but from 2011 onwards!!! By that time their A 343s will be 16 years old and A 332s 13-14 years old each respectively.

The 332 have been built in 1999 and in 2011 they will have only 12 years. I really don't see a need to replace them. Even aircrafts with 16 years, given that they are in a good conditions, are not to be considered being old. If the contract with EK will expire in 2008 we can be sure, that EK won't support UL very much to obtain new aircrafts after 2011 at all. In this case I believe that UL doesn't have the financial possibilities for an entire fleet renewal at all. As said before, the political situation will have a hugh influence on this as well. Up to know, UL always wanted to extend their fleet with some more 332 (as they are cheaper to operate than the 332, especially on the European routes) but prices are far too high at the moment for them.
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YYZ4RADD
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sat May 06, 2006 8:12 pm

Last news I heard two days ago...UL management and the board was looking to renew the EK contract and not let it expire. There is a strong push within UL to still be with EK.

I didn't believe it first either when I heard that the contract was going to expire and wasn't renewed. UL wouldn't last much in that area with EK (if they competed against them).

YYZ4RADD
 
swissgabe
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sat May 06, 2006 9:07 pm

Quoting YYZ4RADD (Reply 26):
Last news I heard two days ago...UL management and the board was looking to renew the EK contract and not let it expire. There is a strong push within UL to still be with EK.

I didn't believe it first either when I heard that the contract was going to expire and wasn't renewed. UL wouldn't last much in that area with EK (if they competed against them).

It is a big political issue as well in Sri Lanka it self. If not mistaken, the final decision is with the government as they are the main share holder. In the current board of UL there are 9 people, 5 of them from EK and 4 nominated by the Sri Lanka government. On the UL/EK deal there is a pro and contra. With EK, UL will have a strong "partner" in the back but would most propably act less or more as a regional airline in the Indian Sub Continent with a few long-haul flights (current network).
Smooth as silk - Royal Orchid Service /// Suid-Afrikaanse Lugdiens - Springbok
 
newagebird
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sun May 07, 2006 12:27 pm

Great to see all these people interested in a small carrier!! its fantastic

Well the bottom line is that UL is owned by the government and the Sri lankan government is unfortunately a corrupt regime. The political situation is only deteriorating and more money is thrown into the war effort. I earlier speculated on the types of aircraft that may be bought, however i doubt there will be any moves to buy for the following reasons.
1. UL is recruiting pilots as of now (quite a few left to join other indian airlines who pay better)..i.e they are rebuilding.
2. The only sector they seem to dominate is the short haul within the subcontinent region. They have enough A320s(which need a refurbish)
3. They recently hiked up prices so this may have an adverse effect.
4. PLanes arent old enough as yet, A330s are only 6-7 years old.
5. Theres no need to expand greatly as the war has started again and this means less tourists.

Sorry about the pessimistic attitude but if they did go for any A/C my bet would be the A350 in 4-5 years as they have been an airbus airline for the past 10 years (ever since those beautiful tristars were retired)

cheers newagebird
 
6thfreedom
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sun May 07, 2006 2:45 pm

The A346 would be great for the launch of MEL/SYD services.

Given the growth in India-Australia traffic, UL would make a killing on the sector.

I would imagine UL's A346s being configured in a 2 class layout, with around 310-320 seats. The sooner they get additional aircraft and return to Australia, the better.
 
newagebird
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sun May 07, 2006 6:11 pm

Qouting 6thfreedom :The A346 would be great for the launch of MEL/SYD services.
Given the growth in India-Australia traffic, UL would make a killing on the sector.

Good Point!
 
swissgabe
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sun May 07, 2006 6:17 pm

Quoting 6thfreedom (Reply 29):
The A346 would be great for the launch of MEL/SYD services.

Don't you think that IF they would start such a route they would first begin with smaller aircrafts and use a possible 346 on current routes such as LHR?
Australia is a typical low-yield market and competition is well ahead. Further more EK would like to have the traffic between Europe and Oz for them "self" and use UL as a regional player.
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Motorhussy
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Sun May 07, 2006 7:40 pm

With a country on the verge of civil war, it may be an inopportune time to be looking at re-equipping the fleet?

IMHO
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MH
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eksath
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Mon May 08, 2006 7:07 am

Quoting MotorHussy (Reply 32):
With a country on the verge of civil war, it may be an inopportune time to be looking at re-equipping the fleet?

Not so. Unfortunately, Sri Lanka has separatist campaign which escalated from low intensity to high in the North and Eastern Province since 1983. In that same time, Air Lanka and Sri Lanka have grown and re-equipped their fleets.

In 1986 a UL Tristar was blown up by tamil terrorists killing 16 people (thankfully this was on the ground). In the '90s , UL switched to an all Airbus fleet with A340s,A320s and A330s (4,2,4). In 2001, tamil terrorists blew up one A340, two A330s and damaged beyond economical repair one A320 (no civilians killed). These were replaced with 2 A340s and 4 A320s--and the fleet also recieved 2 An-12 (leased) and 4 seaplanes.

The leval of violence under the ceasefire is no where near of trying times in the 80s,90s and early 00s. Again, 99% of this is contained in the North and East province which is pretty far (relatively) from CMB and the main tourist areas.

So to answer your comment, UL is best suited to plan for the future given their track record in adversity. Their management team has done a great job in rebranding and selling a good product. You will find quite a few fans. I have flown them between Europe and Asia repeatedly and have had a pleasant experience every time. This is why they have had success despite bad lck. Can they be a better and bigger airline? Yes! However, they have many external factors beyond their control that they have to overcome.
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6thfreedom
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RE: Srilankan Fleet Refresh Plans, A340-600 Or B787

Mon May 08, 2006 9:11 am

Quoting Swissgabe (Reply 31):
Australia is a typical low-yield market and competition is well ahead. Further more EK would like to have the traffic between Europe and Oz for them "self" and use UL as a regional player.

Who said anything about UL getting European traffic.

With 11 points in India, and multiple frequencies per day, UL could just focus on the +30% growth coming on the India-Australia market.

Some additional traffic could come to/from Europe, but this wouldn't be UL's focus.

With regards to EK... It could well be a few years before they are granted additional rights. So apart form upgrading capacity with A380s, they could use UL capacity to increase market share.

That way, a UL/EK arrangement would basically cover Europe, Middle East, Africa, India, Sri Lanka, Asia and Australia.

Here are a few benefits:
EK could codeshare on UL from Australia to India
EK could sell China and Hong Kong from Australia via BKK on UL
UL gets access to New Zealand via EK flights

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