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mariner
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Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 11:05 am

The article says it all:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/f...IRLINES-FRONTIERAIRLINES-STOCK.xml

"The results were impressive given Southwest's presence in the market, said Helane Becker, an analyst at The Benchmark Co."

Frontier shares were beaten down when Southwest announced DEN, and beaten down again to a 52 week low when Southwest started at DEN.

mariner
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flyboyaz
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 11:07 am

Frontier has way more flights out of DEN than WN probably ever will and their product is superior. They shouldn't be worried.
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ATAIndy
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 11:17 am

Quoting Flyboyaz (Reply 1):
Frontier has way more flights out of DEN than WN probably ever will and their product is superior. They shouldn't be worried.

 checkmark 

I agree, in my opinion I think they have a much better product than WN, plus as you mentioned more flights. Sure, WN will probably pick up some traffic at DEN, but I don't think F9 will be hurt by it.
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socalfive
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 11:21 am

Only Southwest brings the "Southwest effect" to a new market. History has proven time and again air travel increases in a market for all carriers. Frontier has nothing to worry about, never did.
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 11:53 am

Quoting Socalfive (Reply 3):
Frontier has nothing to worry about, never did.

As someone who owns shares in Frontier - and who has ridden it through this downturn in price - I could wish you would tell the airline stock analysts that.

Starting with Mike Boyd of Aviation Planning, who said in January that Southwest was intending on "taking Frontier out".

http://www.aviationplanning.com/Predictions2006.htm

"Bullseye On Frontier. Take it to the bank: Southwest is likely planning on taking Frontier out. No, not co-exist as one big happy family. This is the new Southwest, one that can not afford not to be competitively carnivorous.

Or the analysts at J P Morgan who downgraded Frontier just two days ago.

Perception is everything.

mariner
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iowaman
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 11:55 am

Quoting Flyboyaz (Reply 1):
Frontier has way more flights out of DEN than WN probably ever will and their product is superior.

WN will have up to 60 flights by the end of the year in DEN, which is about half of F9's total operation.

Quoting ATAIndy (Reply 2):
Sure, WN will probably pick up some traffic at DEN, but I don't think F9 will be hurt by it.



Quoting Socalfive (Reply 3):
Frontier has nothing to worry about, never did.

I would have to disagree. F9 will not be hurt as far as passenger numbers, however yields have taken a hit, which in turn will have an impact on the bottom line.
 
DLKAPA
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 11:59 am

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 5):
WN will have up to 60 flights by the end of the year in DEN, which is about half of F9's total operation.

F9/Jet Express total daily: 250 (that includes a few CUN runs from other cities, but still 60 is not half of F9's operation).
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
CX747
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 12:08 pm

What size operation is WN looking to have when it reaches its peak?
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Jaws707
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 12:09 pm

I think Frontier is large enough to survive any attack from Southwest. Frontier does offer a superior product and they have all new effecient Airbus aircraft. By looking at how well Frontier has done since Southwest invaded Denver this might be an attractive level to buy into the stock. If Frontier can keep up what they have been doing the last few months, it will only be time until the analysts come out again upgrading the stock and saying Denver is growing quickly enough for both of the airlines to thrive.
 
Slovacek747
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 12:42 pm

Jaws707... that was a rediculous comment saying that Frontier have all new efficient Airbus aircraft.. while that may be true, Southwest have BRAND NEW BOIENG AIRCRAFT which are just as efficient... they are constantly taking new deliveries...

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Jaws707
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 12:45 pm

Quoting Slovacek747 (Reply 9):

True that Southwest has plenty of Brand new 737-700 aircraft, but that also have plenty of the previous generation 737 flying around. That comment was only made to show that Frontier has a fleet more then able to compete with Southwest.
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 1:38 pm

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 5):
however yields have taken a hit,

Um - on a year over year basis, yields are up. Here is the full press release about Frontier's April traffic:

http://frontierairlines.mediaroom.co...dex.php?s=press_releases&item=1288

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 5):
WN will have up to 60 flights by the end of the year in DEN,

Whoa. Southwest "could" have up to 60 flights a day, if they get FAA approval to do so.

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drm.../0,2777,DRMN_23912_4647890,00.html

"...when the time is right we have this step in place," Jones said, adding that the carrier has not announced specific plans for any new service."

They have permission for forty flights now - but they have not reached that number yet:

"Dallas-based Southwest last year received federal approval to start service at DIA and was told it would have to go through the process again if it planned to add more than 40 flights."

mariner
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jacobin777
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 1:47 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 4):
"Bullseye On Frontier. Take it to the bank: Southwest is likely planning on taking Frontier out. No, not co-exist as one big happy family. This is the new Southwest, one that can not afford not to be competitively carnivorous.

I think his comment was right, as WN now is starting to feel the heat from other LCC carriers such as B6, FL,etc...

its going to be a tough slogging for F9 the next 12-18 months...that being said, I think they can pull it off.....

it will be interesting to see if WN starts SJC-DEN, as F9 and UA have that route to themselves right now....

I would like to try them out someday....


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LoneStarMike
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 2:09 pm

>>F9/Jet Express total daily: 250 (that includes a few CUN runs from other cities, but still 60 is not half of F9's operation).<<

True, but the 250 daily departure total for F9/Jet Express includes departures from DEN as well as arrivals into DEN (which count as departures from wherever they originated.

If Southwest had 60 daily departures from DEN, they'd also have 60 arrivals into DEN for a total of 120 daily flights in and out of DEN. While that's still not half of F9/Jet Express' totals, it would be getting close.

Having said that, I seriously doubt Southwest will be up to 60 daily departures at DEN by the end of this year. PHL has been Southwest's fastest growing city to date. Southwest celebrates in 2nd anniversary in PHL this week and they're only up to 58 daily departures (63 in July with the addition of PHL-CMH and PHL-BNA.)

For WN to make it up to 60 daily departures by the end of this year, they'd have to grow DEN twice as fast as they did PHL and I don't see that happening. I'm betting they'll have between 30-40 flights by the end of this year and add the rest in 2007.

There's also the question of aircraft. At DEN, Southwest's shortest route is DEN-SLC at 391 miles. In PHL they operate 22 daily short-haul departures (38% of total WN PHL departures) to 4 cities (PVD, PIT, MHT and RDU) and all these routes are less than 391 miles. (PVD - 237 mi, PIT - 267 mi, MHT - 289 mi and RDU 337 mi. Southwest can have more departures out of PHL with less aircraft because the cities are closer together in the Northeast.

At DEN, WN would need more aircraft to have the same number of departures at PHL because WN's stage length out of DEN is longer than at PHL.

DEN-LAS is 628 mi and DEN-PHX is 602 mi.

Other potential WN routes out of DEN might include DEN-ABQ at 349 mi, DEN-OMA at 472 mi, and DEN-MCI at 533 mi.

I agree that I don't think Frontier has anything to worry about right now.

LoneStarMike

 
iowaman
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 3:36 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 11):
Um - on a year over year basis, yields are up. Here is the full press release about Frontier's April traffic

My bad. However, I would imagine they are down on DEN-LAS/PHX/MDW/SLC and maybe BWI.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 11):
Whoa. Southwest "could" have up to 60 flights a day

Correct, I did say "up to".

Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 6):
F9/Jet Express total daily: 250 (that includes a few CUN runs from other cities, but still 60 is not half of F9's operation).

Well here is your answer:

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 13):
True, but the 250 daily departure total for F9/Jet Express includes departures from DEN as well as arrivals into DEN (which count as departures from wherever they originated.

So basically if you include departures and arrivals for WN too, they "could have up to" 120 total daily operations in DEN. I should have worded my previous post better though.

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 13):
I agree that I don't think Frontier has anything to worry about right now.

Well, a lot of shareholders obviously disagree. If WN was to maintain their current schedule without adding anymore flights, I would agree with you. However with more destinations most likely on the horizon along with more flights, I don't think yields are going to be able to keep up with rising fuel prices, and WN is surely going to help keep yields from getting high on the routes they compete with head to head.
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 3:46 pm

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 14):
Well, a lot of shareholders obviously disagree.

That has been the case, based on very little evidence. It was believed that Southwest must hurt Frontier. I am sure a number of people still believe that - you seem to - one month doesn't make a summer.

However, yesterday's traffic release changed the thinking somewhat. As the link in the first post says:

"Everybody has been very concerned about Southwest bringing fares down and putting pressure on Frontier," Becker said. "Putting it all together, we think it was a pretty good result for them."

mariner
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F9Animal
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 7:38 pm

God almighty. Why in the hell does everyone including the stock analysts think WN is out to kill and destroy someone?

Now factor in HIGH FUEL, 9/11, and the list goes on. Nobody is out to kill anyone off. It is a game of survival, and if WN wants a piece of the pie, then they have to earn it just like the rest of the airlines in this world.

WN was made to make money. What do you think F9 was made to do?

WN is not the enemy. WN is a company. F9 is not the enemy. F9 is a company.
What do the 2 have in common? They both have wings, seats, and workers. They differ in product and culture, but not by much. If you want to tear down the CASM and RASM and WASM, with a little JASM.....

Oh come on. Whenever WN starts a new city, everyone says that WN will crush them. Take PHL for example. When WN started flying there, everyone said that US Airways was a goner. Everyone said that WN was going to finish them off. So if that is and was the case..... Who failed? Who really failed?

WN has a little more experience and a fatter wallet to glide through the tough times. F9 will find its way through the clouds.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
F9Animal
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 7:58 pm

One more little tid bit to add.

F9 helped make Denver travel a little easier on the wallet. If anyone thinks for a minute that F9 is doomed, they better take a trip to a bar and drink a few more shots. Seriously, F9 has nothing to worry about.

WN is a pretty quiet airline. They keep to themselves, and built a business that is successful. If anything, I would say that WN has set the new models of how to run a money making airline.

F9 and many of the new LCC's started with the dreams of having a WN cash flow. Instead of flexing the muscles, airlines should be concerned about not losing focus of what they built their models on.

Face it. WN will continue to expand and service markets. Don't be surprised to see MSP and a few other mega hubs for the big boys get entered by WN. Again, WN is looking at making money, not killing off the big boys. The big boys freak so much, that they are trying to fend WN off... And the big boys end up losing their arses over it.

I guess HP should have been long gone with LAS and PHX. Amazing how HP survived and became what they are today by focusing on themselves, and remaining competitive.

If you want a war with WN, then slash your prices and see WN follow. It is all about dollars and cents.


BTW- It is Cinco De Mayo.... And I have certainly enjoyed it. So if I am blabbering, please excuse me!  Smile
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MSYtristar
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 8:10 pm

F9 doesn't have anything to worry about...except keeping its employees happy. From what people have told me, morale at DEN is way down compared to the pre-WN times. Some of the people I know are generally concerned that WN will slowly but surely steal market share away from F9. Even if it's not the case, the perception is there. WN is clearly the more experienced company and has the resources to survive a long-term fight. Do I think WN with its new Boeing fleet will drive F9 out of DEN? No. But let them get 60+ flights from there over the next couple of years and things will get a little more inetresting. I can't believe people would have thought that WN could do much to F9 at DEN already...heck they only have a minimal number of flights! Analysts sure can be paranoid.
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 8:35 pm

Sorry, but that simply doesn't make sense. If the "people you know" think:

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 18):
Some of the people I know are generally concerned that WN will slowly but surely steal market share away from F9. Even if it's not the case, the perception is there.

Then why are the analysts being paranoid for saying the same thing?

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 18):
I can't believe people would have thought that WN could do much to F9 at DEN already...heck they only have a minimal number of flights! Analysts sure can be paranoid.

Since the "people you know" think it, they must be paranoid, too.

mariner
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 8:52 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 17):
Seriously, F9 has nothing to worry about.

So what are you saying? That I didn't really lose the money I lost with the fall in the share price?

How does that work?

mariner
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L1329II
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 10:37 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 16):
What do the 2 have in common? They both have wings, seats, and workers. They differ in product and culture, but not by much.

I beg to differ. From a customer standpoint there is a bunch of difference and I'm not talking about PVT's or any of the other "amenitites." When I have the choice I always take F9.

F9 is always very professional and I dont have to put up with the childish games the FA's always seems to want to play on WN.

My 2 cents... Go F9!
"By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly a plane?"
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 11:09 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 19):
Since the "people you know" think it, they must be paranoid, too.

Possibly. In fact I'd bet that a couple of them are. I was just letting y'all know what the perception is from some...not all..of the F9 staff in DEN.

And yes, the analysts are paranoid.
 
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FLALEFTY
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sat May 06, 2006 11:14 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 16):
Oh come on. Whenever WN starts a new city, everyone says that WN will crush them. Take PHL for example. When WN started flying there, everyone said that US Airways was a goner. Everyone said that WN was going to finish them off. So if that is and was the case..... Who failed? Who really failed?

WN has a little more experience and a fatter wallet to glide through the tough times. F9 will find its way through the clouds.

Well said, F9Animal!

Besides, I think the DIA hub market has room for WN, UA and F9 all to thrive.
 
A330300
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 12:42 am

From the employee side, I think most folks at Frontier are happy where they are, but are definitely concerned about Southwest and other factors affecting the company.

Some employees question management's "wait and see" or "half baked" approach to things - Frontier is a bit weak on the marketing/branding (very few EarlyReturns partnerships, little brand recognition outside of Denver yet a vast route network, seemingly limited advertising and promotion for new service) - The rebranding in Denver paid off very well for Frontier, but it needs more push in other markets. LaMar's donuts on board was introduced with great hype, but I have yet to see even a LaMar's wrapper on a Frontier aircraft (those aircraft appearance folks in Denver must be doing a great job... ) - I've even heard a complaint from a passenger that all they got was a granola bar rather than a LaMar's donut!

But yet this conservative approach is what has sustained Frontier for 12 years fincancially - Frontier didn't spend gobs of money on "Operation Snowflake" snowglobes or "JetBoo" pins for employees like JetBlue, but JetBlue's choices in marketing spending seems to have paid off so far. Yet strong branding, decent service, and some loyalty did little to save Independence Air. Management seems to be even more cautious during this time with marketing budgets - a very valid concern, but wise choices could prove to be a good investment.

I think Boyd summed it up best when he mentioned that Frontier needs to leverage its strengths - very few customers know that they can transfer AMEX points to EarlyReturns, for example. The company should push the DirecTV, refresh inflight service, emphasize and deliver a consistently good experience, and make Frontier a stronger brand to consumers. Sure consumers are price driven, but it doesn't help to see a blurry image of a whale next to the United "U" on Expedia.

Mphasis has created a great image for marketing media - WildBlueYonder, Wild Hare care packages, inflight entertainment guides, More Store, etc...everything looks incredibly professional. Frontier just needs to "tie it all up" and present a strong product when selling those competitive fares.

While reality may be different, Frontier's ultimate goal should be "This is Frontier, looks pretty good right?, come fly with us! (Plus we've got competitive fares)" rather than "We just happened to be the cheapest option on Travelocity combined with Delta on the return, so give us a try! You save $5 over American!" Giving consumers a reason to pick that blurry icon on the screen other than saving $5 will help business in the long run.

[Edited 2006-05-06 17:52:19]
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 12:51 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 15):
However, yesterday's traffic release changed the thinking somewhat. As the link in the first post says:

"Everybody has been very concerned about Southwest bringing fares down and putting pressure on Frontier," Becker said. "Putting it all together, we think it was a pretty good result for them."

I would tend to disagree. While F9's RASM increase of 6.8% was decent, it was well below what the industry average will be. Most analysts expect April RASM to average 10-12% for the industry. So if F9 is trailing the industry by that much, something is clearly going on.

Of course, RASM is only part of the picture. If F9's CASM rose by only 2% (just a hypothetical), then they are doing pretty well. However, if their CASM rose by 10% (which is more likely given fuel), then they are not doing so well.

I'm not saying that WN will kill F9. If F9 were to die, it would be their own fault and not WN's. However, WN is going to put pressure on F9's yields and likely prevent them from rising as fast as necessary to keep up with fuel costs.
 
DLKAPA
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 12:54 am

Actually next week will be my first flight on F9. I wanted to fly F9 for a long time, and they tied with AA as cheapest airline on DEN-DFW. Now the choice became brand new A319 with great reviews from the airline and IFE, or... AA.

Easy Choice Big grin  duck 
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F9Animal
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 1:35 am

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 18):
F9 doesn't have anything to worry about...except keeping its employees happy. From what people have told me, morale at DEN is way down compared to the pre-WN times. Some of the people I know are generally concerned that WN will slowly but surely steal market share away from F9. Even if it's not the case, the perception is there. WN is clearly the more experienced company and has the resources to survive a long-term fight. Do I think WN with its new Boeing fleet will drive F9 out of DEN? No. But let them get 60+ flights from there over the next couple of years and things will get a little more inetresting. I can't believe people would have thought that WN could do much to F9 at DEN already...heck they only have a minimal number of flights! Analysts sure can be paranoid.

And yes! The morale in DEN is very low. I talked to several employees that were down in the dumps, saying that they were going to be out of jobs soon. It took a pep talk to get their heads on straight, but many of these guys and gals are young. Management also knows this, and I am hopeful they add the right touch to get them back into the Animal groove. Otherwise, F9 really is all about its employees.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 20):
So what are you saying? That I didn't really lose the money I lost with the fall in the share price?

How does that work?

mariner

I would never say that you have not lost your you know what on the stock. And I agree that the analysts and Mr. Boyd (who gloomed and doomed US and HP before the merger) got this pot of gold wrong. F9's stock started hurting before the WN talks, and of course the darn fuel is impacting it pretty bad. Don't lose your faith though Mariner. You are a very knowledgable person about this airline, and I share your feelings on the hopes and disapointments. I too have lost a few bucks myself, but I won't sell. The stock is going to climb again.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
F9Animal
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 1:46 am

Quoting L1329II (Reply 21):
I beg to differ. From a customer standpoint there is a bunch of difference and I'm not talking about PVT's or any of the other "amenitites." When I have the choice I always take F9.

F9 is always very professional and I dont have to put up with the childish games the FA's always seems to want to play on WN.

My 2 cents... Go F9!

And I was hoping someone would jump on that! LOL! You are beyond right about F9 having an excellent product. The employees of F9 are a huge breath of fresh air. I love F9!!! GO F9!!

I also have to respect WN too. But I am not afraid of them. I know what their purpose is, and that is not to "kill" the competitor. Did WN kill Independence? Did WN kill National (N7)? Did WN kill Valujet? Did WN kill Western Pacific? Did WN kill TWA? Did WN kill Pan AM, or Eastern? The list goes on.

If airline XYZ decides to take on WN, and drop the fares to knock WN out...... WN will lower the fares to match its competition. This is the mentality that hurts the airlines that want to take WN head on.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
ShowerOfSparks
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 2:08 am

Quoting ATAIndy (Reply 2):
I agree, in my opinion I think they have a much better product than WN, plus as you mentioned more flights. Sure, WN will probably pick up some traffic at DEN, but I don't think F9 will be hurt by it.

I agree wholeheartedly with that.

Has anybody checked to see how Greyhound is doing now that WN is in Denver?  Wink

[Edited 2006-05-06 19:20:58]
 
CX747
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 2:31 am

How many aircraft is WN taking delivery of over the next 2-3 years? I know that they just exercised options on 70+ more 737-700s. Do we know if these jets are going to be used in a DEN expansion?
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
FATFlyer
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 2:54 am

Quoting A330300 (Reply 24):
very few customers know that they can transfer AMEX points to EarlyReturns, for example.

Sounds like a marketing idea for advertising SFO-LAX. UA and AA are not in the AX program although WN is.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
Midway2AirTran
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 2:55 am

Quoting Mariner (Thread starter):
Frontier shares were beaten down when Southwest announced DEN, and beaten down again to a 52 week low when Southwest started at DEN.

A typical market reaction providing fertile ground for a possible nice recovery trend to cash in on IMO. Definitely something that I would now further look into.

Southwest's entry to DIA is still small and should have little effect to F9 IMO. We are also talking about two totally different products/services. Generally the "Southwest effect" increases passenger loads across the board while having the greatest effect on the highest fares that normally kept passengers out from flying in the first place.

Contrary to Mike Boyd's comments, keep in mind that WN only serves 60 something cites, there are still many opportunities to grow without the hassle of having to "punch out" any competition and especially other LCCs.

Quoting A330300 (Reply 24):
but it needs more push in other markets.

I do agree that F9 should extend efforts outside Denver to diversify outside the one lone DEN hub, especially in the marketing front. LAX was an nice attempt despite the failure and hopefully they learned from the experience to try again.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 25):
While F9's RASM increase of 6.8% was decent, it was well below what the industry average will be

I believe F9 is a Low-Fare carrier not charging the $800-$1000+ fares so why expect it to measure up with whole industry RASM increases when a majority of the industry is served by the larger network carriers that charge higher fares?
"Life is short, but your delay in ATL is not."
 
socalfive
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 4:29 am

Stocks take hits as the market is an emotional rollercoaster of epic proportions. Stocks have to be looked at long term. Morale issues need to be addressed by upper and middle management at F9, fat needs to be trimmed, focus on good service (as they have always maintained) and Frontier is going to do fine in the marketplace alongside of WN.

For analysts to claim that WN is taking AIM at F9 is almost ludicrous. It would take years for WN to build up a fortress against F9 at the cost of the rest of their market expansion plans over the next 10 years or so. F9 is endeared in the DEN market and if I were to wager on anything suffering, it would be UA and Ted. Ted will go down in flames and WN at DEN will be merely one of the reasons why. F9'ers need to just BE happy and keep the faith, the worst future they'll ever have is a Jetblue merger some day in the not too distant future.
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 4:41 am

Quoting Socalfive (Reply 33):
the worst future they'll ever have is a Jetblue merger some day in the not too distant future.

I think that is the most depressing thing I have read in this whole - rather depressing - thread.

 Smile

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L1329II
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 5:06 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 28):
I also have to respect WN too. But I am not afraid of them. I know what their purpose is, and that is not to "kill" the competitor. Did WN kill Independence? Did WN kill National (N7)? Did WN kill Valujet? Did WN kill Western Pacific? Did WN kill TWA? Did WN kill Pan AM, or Eastern? The list goes on.

Maybe not them but they did kill Vanguard. Wheather they meant to or not they ran them out. Not that anyone really lost sleep about it.

I have a repect for WN also. Every time for as long as I can remember the WN service has been consistant. Lately they have become a little goofy, more on the unprofessional side but thier service is consistent. MAybe the money they have is making them a little loopy.  crazy 

Back to F9: They will be fine. They have my business. One of F9's biggest strengths is the level of service and I have to think that customers agree
"By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly a plane?"
 
SpazolaJBLULGB
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 8:37 am

its good that Frontier enjoys the Live Tv that B6 owns!!! Thats why thier product is superior!!! When you've got a GREAT product like jetBlue ,everyone wants to be like you!!! What about the leather seats WN has where do you think they got that idea??? They had those nasty seats like AWA had !!!!!
 
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 8:56 am

Quoting SPAZOLAJBLULGB (Reply 36):
its good that Frontier enjoys the Live Tv that B6 owns!!!

While your statement is accurate - JetBlue does own LiveTV now - there is a bit more to the story.

The contract between Frontier and LiveTV was agreed in July 2002:

http://www.allbusiness.com/periodicals/article/195502-1.html

"A final agreement between the airline and LiveTV is expected to be reached in July 2002, reported The Associated Press."

JetBlue did not purchase LiveTV until September of 2002.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...9E07E6DE1731F933A2575AC0A9649C8B63

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vega
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 9:32 am

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 13):
Southwest celebrates in 2nd anniversary in PHL this week and they're only up to 58 daily departures (63 in July with the addition of PHL-CMH and PHL-BNA.)

It is my understanding that WN anticipates 100+ flights at PHL by year end, IF they can get all the gates they want, which is now questionable. Your point on northeast short hauls; WN also does long haul trans-con non-stops (PHL-SEA, PHL-OAK, PHL-LAX, etc,) which somewhat offset the benefits of the short < 300mi trips from an overall aircraft availability standpoint.
We are but a moment in this vast Universe and when gone we will never have existed.
 
CBERFlyer
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 1:05 pm

Quoting L1329II (Reply 35):
Back to F9: They will be fine. They have my business. One of F9's biggest strengths is the level of service and I have to think that customers agree

My thoughts exactly. Frontier has a pretty significant loyalty base, and not only in Denver as most people think. There are those of us who are committed Frontier customers and fans who live in places like DC and elsewhere.
 
frugalqxnwa
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 1:47 pm

Too bad I don't have the money or securities license to purchase F9 stock right now. The best times to buy a stock are usually when the media is hyping up everyone's emotions about how bad a certain stock (or the entire market for that matter) is going down in the dumps never to return. The stock will rebound and F9 will be fine.
 
GentFromAlaska
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 2:22 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 16):
God almighty. Why in the hell does everyone including the stock analysts think WN is out to kill and destroy someone?

Concur, one only has to look at other cities where both F9 and WN fly. WN is the dominant carrier at BNA and both carriers co-exist nicely. I think BWI is another.

Comparing both carriers, flying the same city pair where the airfare is within close proximity of each other. I ponder why anyone would trade in assigned seating for boarding group seating, F9 offers IFE at a minimal cost, better snacks which closely resemble food. The cheese product and crackers just doesn't do it. I do wish F9 would market their mileage program better.

In all fairness to WN I do fly them occasionally on the SEA-BNA city pair, if I can get on the non-stop flight. My time is more valuable than sitting in an airport for two or more hours waiting for a connection, more so when traveling west to east.
Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
 
LoneStarMike
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 4:24 pm

>>Comparing both carriers, flying the same city pair where the airfare is within close proximity of each other. I ponder why anyone would trade in assigned seating for boarding group seating,<<

One factor to consider -- especially if you're a business traveler -- is frequency of service in a given city pair.

Compare F9 and WN's frequencies in selected city-pairs:

DEN - SJC

F9 - 2 daily departures (both nonstop)
WN - 7 daily departures (7 one-stop connections)

DEN - SMF

F9 - 2 daily departures (both nonstop)
WN - 8 daily departures - (5 one-stop connections and 3 two-stop connections)

DEN - LAX

F9 - 6 daily departures (all nonstop)
WN - 9 daily departures (3 one-stop through flights and 6 one-stop connections)

DEN - SAN

F9 - 5 daily departures (all nonstop)
WN - 8 daily departures (2 one-stop through flights and 6 one-stop connections)

DEN - SNA

F9 - 3 daily departures
WN - 7 daily departures (7 one-stop connections)

For some folks nonstop service and better inflight amenities are more important. For others, overall frequency in a market (even if it's through or connecting service) is more important. F9 appeals to the former, WN to the latter.

Here's an example of a route I think F9 should try.

Frontier already has 3 daily nonstops to MSP and 2 to OMA. Why not add two new DEN-OMA-MSP trips? OMA would end up with 4 daily nonstops to DEN - up from 2, and they'd have two nonstops to a new market -- MSP. OMA-MSP is 282 miles and sees 210 daily passengers at an average fare of $231.98 or a whopping 82.3 cents per mile according to Q3 2005 statistics.

Frontier could charge average fares of 35 cents per mile or about $99.00 each way and generate lots of new traffic. Have a Mall of America introductory fare.

Doing this would also increase the number of daily F9 departures in the DEN - MSP market from 3 (nonstops) now to 5 (3 nonstops and two one-stop flights through OMA.)

Another factor to consider in whether a passenger chooses F9 over WN would be which airline's FF program the passenger is affiliated with. I don't see F9 losing many of it's exiting DEN passengers flying out to the spoke cities and returning. F9 is the "hometown airline" and lots of folks are already tied into its' FF program.

I think the paasengers F9 stands to lose are existing, loyal WN customers in PHX, LAS, MDW, and BWI, and to a lesser extent, SLC, where WN has a big customer base and F9 does not.

Before, those WN pax in other cities might have chosen F9 to get to DEN simply because WN couldn't get them there. Now WN can, and many might give up the added perks of flying F9 in order to earn Rapid Rewards credits, especially since WN finally ended its double credit bonus for making reservations on the internet.

On the flip side, though, WN's entry into DEN has brought prices down in some markets and that's generated additional new passengers both in DEN as well as the out stations like LAS, PHX, SLC, etc.

Frontier is probably picking up a lot of new DEN passengers flying out and WN is probably generating new activity in the out stations flying into DEN. Hopefully there will be enough new passengers for all.

LoneStarMike

 
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Sun May 07, 2006 7:49 pm

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 42):
DEN - SMFF9 - 2 daily departures (both nonstop)WN - 8 daily departures - (5 one-stop connections and 3 two-stop connections)

Um - I thought Frontier has 4 x daily non-stop DEN-SMF and 3 x daily DEN-SJC?

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A330300
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Mon May 08, 2006 12:41 am

Frontier will be up to 4x Airbus in the SJC market starting later this month.
 
iowaman
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Mon May 08, 2006 1:55 am

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 42):
Frontier already has 3 daily nonstops to MSP and 2 to OMA

Not sure where you got the only 2 to OMA, they currently have 5 DEN-OMA flights (a mix of CR7's and mainline).
 
UGA777
Posts: 189
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Mon May 08, 2006 2:34 am

I normally do not post on this site. However, I felt the need to post on this thread. I flew Frontier for the first time ATL-DEN-LAS-DEN-ATL a week ago and I was VERY impressed. I normally fly Delta, Continental, or Airtran and Frontier blew them away in my opinion. The planes were clean, the DirecTV was great, we were served a hot snack, and the crews were awesome. I will definitely fly Frontier again and I heard some of the passengers around me saying the same thing. This one lady said she flies ATL-DEN once a month to visit family and she made the switch from Delta to Frontier for this flight and will continue to fly Frontier. Her exact comment to her friend was, "I did not know Frontier flies this well. I'm glad I gave them a try. I think I will use them instead of Delta from now on."
 
LoneStarMike
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Mon May 08, 2006 3:39 am

>>Not sure where you got the only 2 to OMA, they currently have 5 DEN-OMA flights (a mix of CR7's and mainline).<<

OK, my bad. I just went to the Bureau of Transportation and looked at what flights F9 operated out of Denver on March 31 - the latest date for which data is available. Jet express doesn't report to the BTS so their flights aren't listed.

F9 had 118 daily domestic departures ( and 118 daily arrivals for a total of 236 daily flights in and out of DEN. The BTS site doesn't list international flights, so that would add a few more, plus the point to point service from Cancun to other cities besides Denver.

Someone earlier mentioned that Frontier/Jet Express had a total daily flight operation of about 250, which I assumed (my bad) was correct. Based on the 236 flights in and out of DEN that I could see plus the international service that I knew wasn't listed on the BTS site, I figured Jet Express didn't operate very many daily flights if the total daily operations between the two of them were around 250.

The point remains that even with only 20 daily departures, WN is already able to offer more frequency (just not nonstop) in certain city-pairs than Frontier can, and some business flyers will choose frequency over better amenities/nonstops, which is what GentfromAlaska was asking about.

LoneStarMike

 
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Mon May 08, 2006 4:03 am

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 47):
WN is already able to offer more frequency (just not nonstop) in certain city-pairs than Frontier can, and some business flyers will choose frequency over better amenities/nonstops,

Yes, some fliers like a lot of frequencies - and yes, Southwest provides that. Personally, the attractiveness of a two stop connection DEN-SMF seems curious, but that's me.

But - Frontier has never been a high frquency airline, in the good times and in the bad. It is a different concept, a different model.

I don't think you become like Southwest in order to compete with Southwest and I am slightly sad to see them adding frequency on the common routes with Southwest.

But I am surprised - and pleased - that they seem able to fill all those extra seats, which - according to the traffic figures released Thursday night - they are doing.

"Capacity grew 20.1 percent to 877.4 million available seat miles from 730.4 million a year earlier. Occupancy rose to 80.7 percent from 76.3 percent at the same time."

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LoneStarMike
Posts: 2808
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RE: Frontier - Survivng Southwest

Mon May 08, 2006 5:04 am

>>But I am surprised - and pleased - that they seem able to fill all those extra seats, which - according to the traffic figures released Thursday night - they are doing.<<

I'm pleased for F9, too and hope they continue to do well. Heck, here in AUS before Frontier's arrival in 2000 (?) AUS-DEN saw 318 daily passengers at average fares of $257.94 (Q3 1999 statistics). Now (Q3 2005) AUS-DEN sees 461 daily passengers and the average fare has dropped to 170.51. F9's success has contributed to AUS' success and I want this trend to continue.

In your opinion, do you think most of this new traffic for Frontier is because Frontier lowered it's fares in certain markets to match Southwest, or is the increase due to other factors?

LoneStarMike

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