Sangas
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 12:17 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 48):
Quoting Sangas (Reply 46):
In short, will reality meet and/or exceed the hype?

What hype? Remarkably I only seem to read about A380 swimming pools, casino's & what ever on a.net, and only people saying it's unrealistic which is a kind of kicking a dead horse.

IIRC, Mr. Enders of EADS recently told the New York Times in a featured interview that "you can fit a tennis court on the A380," ...to imply places like A.net are the sole source of A380 hype is baloney.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 48):
If you currently fly ~ 300 seat 744's (BA, UA, LH, ..) and you have follow competition in more room / comfort upgrades, CASM moves up fast and square feet move up in the priority list.

Mr. Nishimatsu is tacitly saying the real world calculus is far more complex than you suggest.

[Edited 2006-05-12 17:20:30]

[Edited 2006-05-12 17:34:47]
A camel only sees the other camels' humps
 
deltadc9
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 12:58 am

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 49):
You might want to double check on that assumption. IIRC, 764 was also offered to other airlines, and did receive some MOUs (Kenya Airways??) before being cancelled.

Yes, it was offered, and sure Boeing had higher hopes, this is true, but the main intent was to keep Delta and Continental happy. It did pay for itself BTW.

It was in no way similar to Boeing offering the 774 as a derivative to the entire market with expectations of massive appeal. They knew it was a bit player, and the 330 would not lose many sales at all because of it. After all, they knew that the 7E7 was next on the drawing board after the 764.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
babybus
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 1:00 am

In a previous thread it was mentioned that JAL admitted to not being able to afford thorough maintanence of its current aircraft.

It's not an airline that has the economic confidence, at the moment, to buy a A380.

Quoting Naritaflyer (Reply 17):
Japanese airlines will not buy Airbus plain and simple. They will buy whatever aircraft so long as it's a Boeing. I am simplifying it here but the gist of it is that in Japan they will only buy Boeing and that's a fact. It has nothing to do with what the airlines need or which product is better. So long as the Boeings are relatively close in performance and price, it will be Boeing.

Totally correct, aircraft aquisitions are normally recognizing trade commitments between countries and honouring political allegiances, and not necessarily a cost thing.
and with that..cabin crew, seats for landing please.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 1:11 am

A 400-seat aircraft can compete with a 500-seat aircraft if the 400-seater can carry 400 folks more efficiently then a 500-seater can carry 500.

Again, LHR is "slot-restricted" only in as much as airlines can't afford to buy existing slots. And while I admit Boeing is probably choosing stats that favor their case, their slides do note that 744-sized widebody traffic at HKG is decreasing in favor of smaller 777s and A340s with additional frequencies. Plus if the A380 can't do HKG-SFO/LAX at a full load when the winds are bad, then airlines like CX and SQ (and UA and NW) aren't going to be flying it on those routes, leaving HKG's A380 traffic purely "Kangaroo" routing between SYD and LHR. And with EK able to soak up so much of that with their scores of A380s doing SYD-DXB-LHR, that might cause QF, SQ and VS (and BA, if they buy it) to shift some of the "Kangaroo Route" A380 traffic to trans-Atlantic, reducing A380 traffic at HKG even more.

As for NRT, they're putting in a second runway, are they not? That should do wonders for slots, plus the new terminal space already built and planned.
 
Molykote
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 1:25 am

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 44):
Molykote

Would you please care to link me to the abundance of post's that lead you to draw such a conclusion about whether I prefer one manufacturer over the other? I'd like to see you substantiate that.

I'm partial to both OEMs as a professional whom provides Finance for Airlines and as someone whom enjoys the industry. I think you'll find your statement unsubstantiated sir and I would prefer if you actually contributed to the discussion rather than make such a post which does nothing other than detract from the quality of discusson some of us would like to be involved in.

PanAm_DC10

I must apologize - I quoted the wrong user.

I meant to explain that I understood where Keesje was coming from but wanted to start off with your thread starter to provide context.
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supa7E7
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 2:17 am

Quoting 474218 (Reply 48):
In 5 or 10 years JAL can order A380's if they need them, assuming there still in production.

Ahahahahaha!!  Smile
"Who's to say spaceships aren't fine art?" - Phil Lesh
 
Rj111
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 2:22 am

Personally, I shall belive that when i see the order books in ten years time.
 
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glideslope
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 4:15 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 1):
I can only laugh about this. They have 72 747s in their fleet and 8 773As. They will replace the older jumbos with 773ERs, but how can he talk of "using smaller aircraft" there??

Probably just a tactic to get a lower price from Airbus for the A380. For routes to the US and to LHR and FRA the A380 is just the right thing for them.

No, what he is saying is that he wants to wait and see if the 380 can deliver anything. Nothing new here. Most operators have the same approach. You can blame the 346 program for the lack of trust, IMO.

Quoting A380900 (Reply 4):
Airbus should give exclusivity for 10 years to the first Japanese Airline which buys the A380. JAL's president would then stop his useless comments.

What he is really saying is: "we really don't want to participate in the success of the A380, but if it is a success, we'll be forced to join". We already knew that.

The success part of the equation seems to blur more each week.

Quoting Phaeton (Reply 13):
With the Japanese market currently picking up again, airlines in Japan will probably need some A380 capacity in five to ten years time. In addition, not every airline is too keen to order a plane that hasn't even entered the market yet.

Assuming the 380 is in production 10 years from now. Or it could be the Boeing/BAE 400 once Airbus is acquired.  Smile
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
deltadc9
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 4:17 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 53):
A 400-seat aircraft can compete with a 500-seat aircraft if the 400-seater can carry 400 folks more efficiently then a 500-seater can carry 500.

That is a very good observation.

Same goes for smaller jets too, as in the 787-10
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
scoljet
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 5:28 am

WOW!! we have derailed kids!! A & B will both be around for a long time. We can continue to pick nat shit out of pepper regarding who's better but the truth is price, performance, and size dont sell aircraft, people and politics do.
You are now free to flame me at will.
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 7:41 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 26):
764? Are you trying to throw your credibility out the window? That was a plane designed specifically for Delta because their pilots would not allow them to continue buying 777's. CO had a similar need. It was never intended to be anything other than a special order from two long time excellent customers.



Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 51):
Yes, it was offered, and sure Boeing had higher hopes, this is true, but the main intent was to keep Delta and Continental happy. It did pay for itself BTW.

No.
The main intent was to compete with A330-200. 767-400 was never - I'm going to say that again - NEVER - meant to be designed as an exclusive product for DL and CO. Boeing was promoting it very heavily against A330-200 at the time. If it was only made for CO and DL, it would never have been showcased at LeBourget or Farnborough, or included in RFPs for about a dozen other carriers that opted to go with either A330-200 or 777-200ER or not buying anything at all. It just that only DL and CO ended buying it in such numbers that their purchases covered the development cost. But I guess some people just know better than that...

On the other hand, without 764's failure, there would never be a 787s success.
The queen of the skies is dead.
 
zvezda
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 8:04 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 6):
My point is that they have masses of the biggest planes currently in service. How can he seriously say their plans are to use smaller planes?

JL never bought B747s for their size. JL bought them primarily for their range and secondarily for their low CASM.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 28):
The 737NG is only competitive because Airbus can't deliver the A32x fast enough.



Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 46):
If you had followed the order races between both models over the past years you would know both models are very close in performance. Both feature advantages and disadvantages over each other, there's no clear performance leader.

True, PlaneHunter. Also, Thorben, have a look at the A320 and B737 backlogs. You'll find them very similar. IIRC, both are sold out between 4 and 5 years.
 
QANTAS077
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 8:56 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 32):
That'll be the moment of truth for the local flag carriers

and when JAL & ANA see the drama it creates they'll stop and think...if it ain't Boeing we ain't buying.

Japanese carriers invest to much into development of Boeing planes for them to jump overboard when they see the A380 at Narita.
 
saturn5
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 9:17 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 1):
can only laugh about this. They have 72 747s in their fleet and 8 773As. They will replace the older jumbos with 773ERs, but how can he talk of "using smaller aircraft" there??

You laugh because you don't understand what he is saying. By "smaller" aircraft he means below the size of the A380. Was it that hard to understand this or you just like to play ignoramus here?

[Edited 2006-05-13 02:19:23]
 
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centrair
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 9:25 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 40):
Nagoya, and Okinawa would all be candidates to get it, and none are A380-ready

Maybe you are thinking of old Nagoya, now known as Nagoya Komaki Municipal Airport. That one can only recieve smaller planes as stated in the agreement between Chubu Airport authority and Aichi Prefecture, operator of Komaki. Nagoya is A380 ready. It was designed when the A380 was being proposed. They decided to make the taxi ways wider and even make sure that one A380 could deplane at the airport. But for NGO, our chances of seeing a Pax version are slim. But the Cargo version has a real chance of making an appearance as FedEx increases its operations here.

As for JAL buying the A380...It has NOTHING to do with Airbus vs Boeing. It has to do with the market and fragmentation. Until Kansai opened, Narita was the only major international airport offering non-stops to many corners of the globe. Last year NGO opened offering yet another option for more non-stop flights. There is no need to fly to Narita to make your connection when you can fly non-stop to where you need to go. That means that JL's need for so many large planes is a disadvantage to maintain its profit or gaining profit.

In the next few years we could see FUK and CTS open to non-stop flights to Europe and North America. That will further fragment the market and lead to less need for 747 and larger planes in Japan.

There are flights using 744s that leave Narita less than half-full and many of those passengers are not premium but flying on cheap package tours. As a result JL isn't making money. Yet they don't have enough smaller planes that can be substituted when this happens or to fit the route.

20 years ago, the 747 was the only plane that could make Japan-Europe and Japan-North American East Coast. So they bought many and held the market. They had little competition and Japan was in an economic boom. Now it has tons of competition and the economy is not the best. If you wanted to go from Hong Kong to New York 20 years ago, you couldn't go non-stop, you had to go via Tokyo or ANC. Many Asian Carriers could get limited 5th freedoms via NRT but the NAA gave special rights to JL. Now that control is gone with the opening of new routes (opening of Russian and Chinese airspace).

Maybe someday JL will need the A380 but as the market has become more competative and fragmented, it is not an option. I don't even see the 787-8i joining the JL fleet. I see JL going the route of smaller planes doing non-stop routes to destinations world wide and then using planes domestically to connect those airports so people can have options if one flight is full. Example; Currently if I cannot get a seat on NGO-CDG, I can be routed to NGO-NRT-CDG on JL.

One more point...JL is joining OneWorld and as a result they are letting more of their partners take routes to balance out their competition.
My name is Centrair but HND is closer. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
intothinair
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 10:03 am

I'd say around 70+ 773ER orders should get the job done. This could increase yields and get JAL back to profit in the long term.

cheers, Konstantin G.
 
Boeing Nut
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 10:28 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 28):
The 737NG is only competitive because Airbus can't deliver the A32x fast enough.

I'm just highlighting this quote because it has to be one of the most ignorant things I have ever seen.
I'm not a real aeronautical engineer, I just play one on Airliners.net.
 
saturn5
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 10:47 am

Quoting Boeing Nut (Reply 66):
Quoting Thorben (Reply 28):
The 737NG is only competitive because Airbus can't deliver the A32x fast enough.

I'm just highlighting this quote because it has to be one of the most ignorant things I have ever seen

I agree. Complete rubbish.
 
B707Stu
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 10:49 am

I'm not sure what all the confusion is about. Sounds like he's saying he strategically wants JAL to go with smaller aircraft, eg B777, B787, for JL's longhaul flights. Sounds like JL did the same calculus that Boeing did in deciding to not go super big, eg A380.

No company should totally rule out changing its mind about anything that will build and strengthen their business, but it's not surprising the head of one of the major world airlines seems to be coming to where Boeing marketing analysis brought them a few years ago. That's why people study markets, what's the big deal here?

I'm sure Airbus will have plenty of A380 customers, they already do, well, maybe not plenty, but enough based on their market analysis or they wouldn't have build the A380. Boeing's calculation and choice was different.
 
boeingfanyyz
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 10:49 am

Interesting that a major-Boeing customer such as JAL would consider buying the 380 amid the new Boeing a/c, the 747-800. Perhaps JAL was not satisfied with the 748... anyone?

Cheers,
Boeingfanyyz  airplane 
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PanAm_DC10
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 11:13 am

Quoting Molykote (Reply 54):
I quoted the wrong user.

Thank you Molykote I appreciate your clarification.

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - May 12, 2006) - Bombardier Aerospace announced today that Japan Air Commuter (JAC), a team member of Japan Airlines (JAL) Group, has ordered an eleventh Bombardier Q400 high-speed turboprop airliner.

http://www.bombardier.com

Seems like their going really small  Wink

Regards, PanAm_DC10
Ask the impossible to achieve the best possible
 
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LTU932
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 12:29 pm

Quoting Naritaflyer (Reply 17):
Japanese airlines will not buy Airbus plain and simple.

Tell that to NH, which has an A32x fleet.  Wink

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If you are however talking about Airbus widebodies, then given the current situation you might be correct.

Quoting 474218 (Reply 48):
In 5 or 10 years JAL can order A380's if they need them, assuming there still in production.

They'll still be in production. Perhaps by that time the A380-900 is already available, which is the airliner which seems to be in a bit demand, especially by EK.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 53):
As for NRT, they're putting in a second runway, are they not?

No, they are actually extending 16L/34R further north. The southside of the runway couldn't be completed due to a property dispute.

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I personally think JL should rather think of their financial situation before making any remarks on a new aircraft type except those which they ordered. Last time I checked, they were in no good financial situation.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 12:55 pm

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 72):

Tell that to NH, which has an A32x fleet.

They also placed a substantial B737NG order to replace the A320, and launched the B737-700ER model...
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
Carpethead
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 1:25 pm

It's not the airports themselves that cannot handle the A380. The 773/ER have wider turning radius and higher pavement loading than the A388, so this is point is moot. Also major int'l airports like NRT/HND/KIX/NGO are even A346 compliant too.
It's the gate facilities that are the problem. OK an regional airport can have a A380 parked and the next two gates can be left open to smaller aircraft as the A388 wing juts out but this would cause huge congestion at HND. All gates were designed with the 747-classic/777 wingspan. Even if the 744 parks at the HND gates, the adjacent gates have aircraft size restrictions.

Lastly, JL corporate structure is extremely conversative. This probably filters down to even line level. JL is extremely comfortable with working/maintaining Boeing and American-designed aircraft. Why should they just go with Airbus just because the intial price is better than Boeing? There is much more than just the intial acquisition cost of an aircraft. Lets see JL tends to operate aircraft for a very long time, which would mean added training costs, spare parts/stocks, support etc....

Frankly, I am saddened that more Airbuses aren't flying in Japanese carriers' colors and in a few years there will be nothing but 777s, 787s, & 737NGs plying the Japanese skies, but they are a business out to make money and sentimental notion to any manufacturer is out the window in this day of age.

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 72):
Last time I checked, they were in no good financial situation.

Correct, their recent 2004 year results show big losses.
More changes are probably on the way.
 
andessmf
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 1:49 pm

Japan doesnt have an expanding population to justify the presence of an A380 in their sky. Look at the increase in travel in developed countries, for the most part they will mirror the population increase. If Japan's population is expected to decrease in the following years, why will they ever order an A380? Plus, we've already seen the writing on the wall by their continuing reliance on the 777 as compared to the 747. As a matter of fact, even SQ has drastically reduced the number of 747s they fly.

Quoting Sangas (Reply 45):
If our rivals do well using the plane to offer luxury service to passengers, we'll have another look.

This is a big 'if'. And I still dont see the reason why another widebody cannot offer the same POSSIBLE comforts as the A380. BTW, I saw a report not long ago where an Airbus PR rep was claiming that you could have shopping in the A380. Yeah, right! Love to see what happens when you hit a little turbulence!
 
zvezda
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 1:58 pm

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 75):
even SQ has drastically reduced the number of 747s they fly.

Yes, and this will continue. There are currently (as of a few weeks ago) 27 JumboJets in SQ's passenger fleet -- the last of which will be retired in 2011. Even if SQ order the B747-8I SuperJumbo, there will never be more than 20 in their fleet. The trend toward smaller aircraft continues.
 
United Airline
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 2:57 pm

The B 777-300/300ER are replacing the B 747 classics in JAL's fleet, but not the B 747-400s. When it comes to B 747-400 replacement I think they will order the B 747-8 to replace them since a lot JAL's routes do require the size of a B 747. They might get a few A 380s as well. You never know.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 76):
There are currently (as of a few weeks ago) 27 JumboJets in SQ's passenger fleet -- the last of which will be retired in 2011. Even if SQ order the B747-8I SuperJumbo, there will never be more than 20 in their fleet. The trend toward smaller aircraft continues.

From what I read SQ's B 747-400s might remain in service for SQ for a while longer after 2011. Not sure about this...

I think SQ might order 25-30 B 747-8. Or even more if they are not happy with their A 380s.

Just my 2 cents. Let's wait and see....
 
United Airline
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 3:01 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 1):
Probably just a tactic to get a lower price from Airbus for the A380.



Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 8):
There's a flip side to that coin. By not entirely ruling it out, perhaps it's just a tactic to get Boeing to lower the price on the 748i to replace some of the 72 in service you've mentioned

Exactly. I suppose they will order the B 747-8 to replace their B 747-400s. Maybe a few A 380s too.

Might WELL be a strategy to send out this 'we don't need you' message to Boeing and Airbus in order to get a better deal. SQ is doing the same thing to the B 747-8 too I think.

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 8):
As they've signed up for the 747BCF program, they'll continue to convert some of these to freighters when they need.

Only a few of the B 747-400s.
 
airfrnt
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 3:04 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 1):
I can only laugh about this. They have 72 747s in their fleet and 8 773As. They will replace the older jumbos with 773ERs, but how can he talk of "using smaller aircraft" there??

Probably just a tactic to get a lower price from Airbus for the A380. For routes to the US and to LHR and FRA the A380 is just the right thing for them.

Denial... It's not just a river in Egypt anymore.

I am curious how you explain away the nearly identical remarks from Saudi this week as well? JAL and ANA were chief targets of the A380 and neither of them are expressing any public interest in the A380 right now. That might just be because they saw what happened to the atlantic markets in the 80s when the 767 and 757 were introduced, and don't want to be stuck with a set of oversized hard to fill planes?
 
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LTU932
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 3:22 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 73):
They also placed a substantial B737NG order to replace the A320, and launched the B737-700ER model...

True, I'm aware of their 737NG orders and their launch order for the -700ER, but fact is that a Japanese carrier does, or in the future did, operate Airbus aircraft, regardless of any reasons they ordered them.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
manni
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 4:58 pm

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 79):
JAL and ANA were chief targets of the A380 and neither of them are expressing any public interest in the A380 right now.

Both airlines had said before that they're not interested in the A380. A while back ANA rephrased that, to 'not in the near to medium term' and JAL is rephrasing this now to 'unlikely'. As you can see, the A380 is actually making progress in Japan...

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 75):
If Japan's population is expected to decrease in the following years,

Korea's population will decrease dramatically. The birthrate is now just under 1.1

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/biz/200605/kt2006050816583811860.htm

KE has already orderedthe A380 and OZ has said it might place an order before then end of the year.

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 74):

Frankly, I am saddened that more Airbuses aren't flying in Japanese carriers' colors and in a few years there will be nothing but 777s, 787s, & 737NGs plying the Japanese skies,

Japan's newest airline Starflyer has chosen to lease the A320, and there's that cargo airline that will start operations with the A300. ANA recently placed an order for A320s.




Quoting Glideslope (Reply 57):
Or it could be the Boeing/BAE 400 once Airbus is acquired. Smile

No doubt, you'll praise it every time you'd have the opportunity, if it carried the Boeing name.  Yeah sure
 
Carpethead
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 5:06 pm

Little off tangent but as some have mentioned, had the 764 been launched much earlier than the late 1990s, it might have seen orders from JL or NH. Of course, this would have meant the loss of some 772A orders too.
More than likely Boeing would have been reluctant to launch an aircraft encroaching the capacity of the then-in-development 777 program.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 9:53 pm

Quoting Naritaflyer (Reply 17):
American products lack quality for the Japanese market.

I'm glad they are getting along well without American microprocessors and American software.

Quoting Molykote (Reply 37):
The last of the Boeing aircraft will attempt an escape but fly too close the sun on wings of aluminum - plunging into the great sea and forever eradicating this earth of all that is unholy.

Did I forget anything?

Not really, but you did make me realize one potential negative of the composite fuselage - it's lower melting point!
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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PanAm_DC10
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sat May 13, 2006 11:04 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 78):
Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 8):
As they've signed up for the 747BCF program, they'll continue to convert some of these to freighters when they need.

Only a few of the B 747-400s.

Early this year JAL actually increased their commitment to the 747BCF program and now have 8 firm with 4 more options. This appears to have coincided with their first add-on order for the 773ER, in my opinion they may well increase their 744BCF in the future.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/news/2006/q1/060109a_nr.html

There's a thread currently running which is about their first completed 744BCF elsewhere on this site.

Regards, PanAm_DC10
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keesje
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sun May 14, 2006 5:53 am

If the Japanese will not buy the A380 for business reasons that a wise decision.

I think the fleetcomposition / network / markets / competitors of JAL are clear.

Maybe downsizing is the way forward.. W´ ll see what happens.


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LTU932
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sun May 14, 2006 7:00 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 84):
Maybe downsizing is the way forward.

Downsizing might be a bit difficult, considering that JL's and NH's main international hub at NRT is heavily slot restricted. Even with the 77Ws coming online, there might still be a need for 747 sized aircraft or even for the A380, so I'll say that JL and NH are still evaluating their options, despite their recent statements.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
airfrnt
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sun May 14, 2006 11:02 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 80):

Both airlines had said before that they're not interested in the A380. A while back ANA rephrased that, to 'not in the near to medium term' and JAL is rephrasing this now to 'unlikely'. As you can see, the A380 is actually making progress in Japan...

That's some spin...

Quoting Keesje (Reply 84):
If the Japanese will not buy the A380 for business reasons that a wise decision.

I think the fleetcomposition / network / markets / competitors of JAL are clear.

Maybe downsizing is the way forward.. W� ll see what happens.

The A380 is going to live or die over the pacific, the same way as the Atlantic was the 747's proving ground, and doom once the 757/767/330/340s really took off. That means CX, ANA, JAL, NW, UA, and the other asian carriers are the battles to watch. The A380 will never get any traction in the US (where the 744 is too big) or intra-europe (where fragmentation already holds).
 
zvezda
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Sun May 14, 2006 11:13 am

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 85):

Downsizing might be a bit difficult, considering that JL's and NH's main international hub at NRT is heavily slot restricted. Even with the 77Ws coming online, there might still be a need for 747 sized aircraft or even for the A380, so I'll say that JL and NH are still evaluating their options, despite their recent statements.

JL and NH have an ample sufficiency of slots at NRT. There is negligible pressure on them to operate oversize airliners.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 86):
The A380 is going to live or die over the pacific, the same way as the Atlantic was the 747's proving ground, and doom once the 757/767/330/340s really took off. That means CX, ANA, JAL, NW, UA, and the other asian carriers are the battles to watch. The A380 will never get any traction in the US (where the 744 is too big) or intra-europe (where fragmentation already holds).

Fragmentation of the transpacific routes is already well underway. The B777 operates many transpacific routes now and the A340 operates some as well. The B787 and A350 will further fragment the pacific market, leaving little demand for B747 or larger aircraft.
 
texfly101
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Tue May 16, 2006 12:33 am

Quoting Airzim (Reply 18):
I've heard straight from JAL's and ANA's mouth that they will never order a widebody airplane that they can't leverage both domestically and internationally. They are many reasons why they can't use the A380 domestically, (airports can't handle it being the biggest). So no point ordering the A380 for international service with such a small sub fleet.


Their CEO, basically supports this. As quoted in an interview the South China Morning Post 5/13/2006,
"Asia's largest airline wanted medium-sized planes so it can prioritise shorter flights, particularly to China, chief executive-designate Haruka Nishimatsu said yesterday.

He ruled out for now buying the double-decker Airbus A380, the world's largest passenger airliner.

"As we are in a time where the aviation business has become more volatile due to geopolitical factors, it is an iron rule for us to move to smaller aircraft to minimise risk," he said."

Sounds like they have a business plan and are sticking to it.
 
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keesje
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Tue May 16, 2006 12:49 am

Quoting Texfly101 (Reply 88):
I've heard straight from JAL's and ANA's mouth that they will never order a widebody airplane that they can't leverage both domestically and internationally.

This sounds like extremely unlikely. They (can) have priority to grwo with Asia & put their money there in the near future. I however fail to see why that rules out the A380 on the Pacific.

That they are not buying now, next year or in 2008 doesn't carry to much weight.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
deltadc9
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Tue May 16, 2006 12:58 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 60):
It just that only DL and CO ended buying it in such numbers that their purchases covered the development cost. But I guess some people just know better than that...

Because they requested the model, so of couse they did. Once developed, of couse they tried to market it. I think youare putting the cart before the horse.

No Delta, no 764.
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zvezda
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Tue May 16, 2006 1:45 am

Quoting Texfly101 (Reply 88):
Their CEO, basically supports this. As quoted in an interview the South China Morning Post 5/13/2006,
"Asia's largest airline wanted medium-sized planes so it can prioritise shorter flights, particularly to China, chief executive-designate Haruka Nishimatsu said yesterday.

He ruled out for now buying the double-decker Airbus A380, the world's largest passenger airliner.

"As we are in a time where the aviation business has become more volatile due to geopolitical factors, it is an iron rule for us to move to smaller aircraft to minimise risk," he said."

Very sensible. If one is to have an "iron rule" of airliner acquisition, that's a good one to have.
 
WarmNuts
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Tue May 16, 2006 3:44 am

I must first preface this by saying that I am extremely grateful for the level of insight and knowledge the lot of you bring to these discussions. Zvezda, you are one of several I must thank you in particular for providing many of us what is, in essence, a free education.  Smile

Second, as an outsider and relative newcomer to these industry-level discussions, I can clearly state with complete conviction that I have no bias towards either OEM (aside from a very few vague preferences as a FF). This allows me to read every post in a thread such as this and objectively consider divergent paths of possibility (e.g., A380 program success/failure in the Pacific market) in light of all the facts presented.

Now, with regards to the topic, after reading this thread in its entirety, it appears rather obvious that market forecast-based strategic planning, Japanese organizational culture, and geopolitics are the three most significant factors in JAL's decision-making process. I recall reading a book in the late 80's titled Theory Z, in which the tendancy of Japanese businesses to develop long-term relationships with a select few vendors was discussed in depth. The predominance of Boeing a/c within the flagship carriers' respective fleets seems to support this. When one considers what has been made available straight from the horse's mouth (as reiterated elsewhere in this thread), it seems rather clear and indisputable that the requirements (JAL's) as defined by their strategic planning process do not bode well the possible acquisition of the A380 in the foreseeable future.

Additionally, take into account the geopolitics involved (Japan's trade relationship with the US), and IMHO, I do not imagine the sight of an A380 at any Japanese gateway is going to change that...  Smile
 
zvezda
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Tue May 16, 2006 4:47 am

Quoting WarmNuts (Reply 92):
Zvezda, you are one of several I must thank you in particular for providing many of us what is, in essence, a free education.

Thank you for the kind words.  Smile I hope not to disappoint you in the future.

Welcome to A.net!

Zvezda
 
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keesje
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Tue May 16, 2006 5:52 am

Quoting WarmNuts (Reply 92):
I do not imagine the sight of an A380 at any Japanese gateway is going to change that...

I agree, however a line up of 6 A380-800 & -900s (e.g. LH, SQ, VS, AF, EK and QF) offering extra comfort & lower prices might attract the attention from JAL´s customers. However JAL says they will have another look then.

They can not afford business wise to ignore a unique product because of the wrong origin, and they won´t. Even if the political pressure is very high as Naritaflyer (reply 17) pointed out.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Stitch
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RE: Japan Airlines "Unlikely" To Buy A380

Tue May 16, 2006 7:01 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 94):
I agree, however a line up of 6 A380-800 & -900s (e.g. LH, SQ, VS, AF, EK and QF) offering extra comfort & lower prices might attract the attention from JAL´s customers. However JAL says they will have another look then.

One would imagine that there are not any seats that can only be carried by an A380. And if comfort is defined as "personal space", if the A380 offers such space it would most likely be do to issues with floorspace management (being unable to put seats too close to the walls or unable to put too many heavy suites/seats per square meter of floor due to loading issues). And such issues would most likely not result in lower prices due to increased CASM needing higher RASM to offset.

Quote:
They can not afford business wise to ignore a unique product because of the wrong origin, and they won´t. Even if the political pressure is very high as Naritaflyer (reply 17) pointed out.

What about the "political pressure" for Japanese businessmen to fly Japanese "flag carriers"?

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