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nicolasdec
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Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 7:27 pm

Do you have any information if British airways will buy any A380's?
Nicolas
 
AlanUK
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 7:37 pm

This has been discussed many times before... No official word yet from BA, it's a case of "maybe we will, maybe we won't".

Personally, I think they will buy it, but not for a while.
 
EI321
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 7:41 pm

Its nearly certain that BA will order either 748i, A380 or maybe even both at some time, its just not certain when. It wont happen for a while.

You can find lots of info in the search engine, there have been many past threads about BA and the A380.
 
Beaucaire
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 7:45 pm

It's the same story like ElAl buying Airbusses...
Some people within the company want -some don't -and currently the "nays" within BA seem to be in the majority.
Ultimately BA will be obliged to jump the step and conceede the utility of highest-density routes being served by A380's.
The A380 offers a competetive advantage in terms of seat-mile-cost and generous in-cabin space envirenment.Slot availabilities is another issue that can not just simply be neglected in some airports.
We might see 787's and the Whale -jet in BA colours -but-as some suggest-not too soon.
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EI321
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 7:56 pm

BA has a tradition of not being a launch customer but whethier Walsh will continue this is unclear. The advantages that the A380 would offer BA are obvious. Apart from slots, many of BA's 744s layouts are optimised for business travel (only 290 seats). The extra floor space in the A380 would be a big advantage.
 
AlanUK
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 8:03 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 4):
BA has a tradition of not being a launch customer but whethier Walsh will continue this is unclear.

It's not a tradition, it's actually following the difficulties encountered by BA after the 777 launch.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 4):
Apart from slots, many of BA's 744s layouts are optimised for business travel (only 290 seats). The extra floor space in the A380 would be a big advantage.

However BA has a tradition here: to have its product consistent across fleets, therefore to make the most of the extra space on the A380 would make the 777s and 744s second class long haul aircraft, which BA will simply not accept. Agreed on the slot issue though  Smile
 
Sangas
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 8:17 pm

Quoting AlanUK (Reply 5):
However BA has a tradition here: to have its product consistent across fleets, therefore to make the most of the extra space on the A380 would make the 777s and 744s second class long haul aircraft, which BA will simply not accept

I think this is a dilema for airlines that have already purchased the A380 as well. However, the test cabin on MSN002 with 474 seats unveiled by Airbus last week just looked like a lot more of the same spread-out over two decks. Perhaps the test cabin of MSN007 coming soon will be somewhat more evocative of the "gold standard."

[Edited 2006-05-16 13:21:55]
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EI321
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 8:33 pm

Quoting AlanUK (Reply 5):
BA has a tradition here: to have its product consistent across fleets, therefore to make the most of the extra space on the A380 would make the 777s and 744s second class long haul aircraft, which BA will simply not accept.

Im not suggesting that the A380 have more amenities, just that it would allow more capacity. They could fit more seats into the A380 that wont fit in the 744. Some BA 744s have around 370 (?) seats and the rest have like 290. So there are differences across the fleet. In situations where more capacity might be needed but slots are difficult to organise (say LHR-JFK) then the A380 could replace the 744 - an increase in capacity but retaining the same first/biz/eco+/eco seat ratio is desired. Or even replacing three 744 flights with two A380 flights like on the morning LHR-HKG route.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 9:26 pm

There is a lot of interest in BA on this forum, and so any thread on it's future fleet usually gathers a lot of information. Here's one recent thread you may find interesting.
British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal (by Jacobin777 Mar 15 2006 in Civil Aviation)
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vv701
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 10:01 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 7):
Some BA 744s have around 370 (?) seats and the rest have like 290.

The majority (31) have a 'Low J' cabin configuration for 291 passengers (F14 / J70 / W30 / Y177). The rest are configured for 360 passengers (F14 / J38 / W36 / Y272).

As I see it the 380 would be useful to BA on time-restricted routes (like LHR-HKG and LHR-JNB) where two or more 744 flights currently leave within minutes of each other because of night time restrictions at LHR. But clearly the 380 dies not fit in with BA's strategy on its more important routes like LHR-JFK where it currently operates a mix of 744s and 772s whereas it could currently maximise seats by flying just the 744.

It is interesting that both BA and Japan Air Lines - who have the largest 747 fleets - have both expressed a degree of coolness to the 380 and both last expanded their long haul fleets by adding 777s and not 747s. BA have, of course, also reserved future production line positions for 777s but have no such positions for the 748 or 380.
 
B747-4U3
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 10:11 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 7):
Or even replacing three 744 flights with two A380 flights like on the morning LHR-HKG route.



Quoting VV701 (Reply 9):
As I see it the 380 would be useful to BA on time-restricted routes (like LHR-HKG and LHR-JNB) where two or more 744 flights currently leave within minutes of each other because of night time restrictions at LHR

The problem is that 2 A380s do not equal 3 744s.

With HKG for example, the daily seats are as follows: 290 + 360 + 360, so 1010 seats.

2 A380s at 470 seats each = 940, so 70 seats less. Probably if BA replaced 3 744s for 3 380s then they would have too many seats. Operating 2 380s and 1 772 could be an option but it increases costs by adding an extra type on the route.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 10:33 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 8):
There is a lot of interest in BA on this forum, and so any thread on it's future fleet usually gathers a lot of information. Here's one recent thread you may find interesting.

British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal (by Jacobin777 Mar 15 2006 in Civil Aviation)

thanks for the link Revelation...I was going to repost some BA comments here also...... Smile


"Boyle (BA Planning Director Robert Boyle ) noted. "Of course a combined order for A380s with 747-8s is unlikely, as is an order for the Dreamliner with the A350." BA is more interested in the 787-9 and the proposed larger dash 10 than the 787-8. He also revealed it "very much pushed Boeing to produce the 747-8."

source:ATWOnline.com


"He also said the airline would evaluate the Airbus A380 superjumbo, and envisaged some role for the plane but not a significant one. Until now BA has adopted a wait-and-see approach to the supersize jet which underwent its first flights earlier this year.

Walsh said the A380 is likely to be a "niche", and therefore risky, product for BA. An initial analysis has shown it is not a suitable replacement for the carrier's existing Boeing widebody jets from 2011. "

source:thebusinessonline.com
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 10:38 pm

Will AA buy 787 's ?
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gkirk
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 10:59 pm

Personally, I doubt BA will order the WhaleJet.
Look at LHR-JFK for example, 6 x 747s and 1 x 772 daily. BA like to offer the business pax flexibility so if you were to replace the 6 B747s with 6 A380s, that would give a large increase in seats, load factors on the WhaleJet would be lower than those on the 747, thus would make LHR-JFK flights less profitable.
The 747-8 is an interesting one for BA IMO, and will probably suit their needs better.
The 787 is a good replacement for the B767s when that comes around also.
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art
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 11:27 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 4):
Apart from slots, many of BA's 744s layouts are optimised for business travel (only 290 seats). The extra floor space in the A380 would be a big advantage.

A point that many miss, I think, when talking of the Jumbowhale.
 
Poitin
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Tue May 16, 2006 11:48 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 9):
As I see it the 380 would be useful to BA on time-restricted routes (like LHR-HKG and LHR-JNB) where two or more 744 flights currently leave within minutes of each other because of night time restrictions at LHR. But clearly the 380 dies not fit in with BA's strategy on its more important routes like LHR-JFK where it currently operates a mix of 744s and 772s whereas it could currently maximise seats by flying just the 744.

The example you give, of two 747s leaving within minutes on the same route, would be justification for a A380. However, what do you do in off season when all you need is just one 747? It is very hard to send only 1/2 of a A380.

I doubt BA will buy any Whalejets, and I seriously doubt they will buy more than a handful of 748i because a half-full plane is no longer an economic possibility. You are far better off sending two smaller planes that are full than you are sending one plane that is half full. Remember that the 747 and 380 are no longer the only VLR aircraft. There is the 777 and 787 as well, and maybe someday, the A350. With that range of aircraft you can mix and match the sizes to the routes on a seasonal basis.

The only reason BA would buy any 748I is for the few routes they need a replacement for their present 744s.
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Ken777
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 12:25 am

When you consider that BA "pushed" Boeing rather hard to build the 748 it seems clear that they consider it to be the right size plane for them - and their routes. While I can appreciate the additional capacity of the 380 over the 748 during the high season I can also appreciate the cost of flying the plane less than full during low season over the 748 and have no doubt that BA understands this in far greater detail. I think that BA will go for the 748i over the 380, primarily for the low & shoulder season benefits.
 
UKCO
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 12:35 am

Quoting AlanUK (Reply 5):
It's not a tradition, it's actually following the difficulties encountered by BA after the 777 launch.

Sorry if this has been discussed here but do you mind breifly letting me know what those were.
 
FCKC
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 1:26 am

Without any offense , the title of this thread should have been : "What plane BA will choose , between A380 and 747-8 ?".

At this time it is very clear referring to the CEO announcement some weeks ago , BA will have in its fleet either A380s or 747-8s , but not both.

If they choose A380 , it will not be able to replace all 744s , one by one as being too large for that purpose , even with the forthcoming growth in the years to come.

Probably 747-8 ( 100 seats less vis a vis A380) would be the right plane to do this job.But in this case they will probably do not need to order 777-300ERs.

But they are rumoured to have reserved slots for the later , indicating this plane will replace 744s .But in this case in some huge trafic routes the 777-300ER will be too small , and they will need a VLA , which could be the A380 , and not the 747-8 , which only will do gaining some more seats vis a vis 777-300ER , which is not enough.

My conclusion is :

Either they will order 777-300ER and 747-8 , or simply A380 (in this case no 777-300ER , but probably some 787-10s).

I am sure they are waiting to know the definitive new A350 in all versions to have all the cards in their hands to decide which way to go.

I think this order will not be placed before 2007 , time for them to see how the A380 will perform with all A380 airlines (in fact nearly all the A380 customers worldwide) landing at LHR.
 
gkirk
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 1:32 am

Quoting UKCO (Reply 17):
Sorry if this has been discussed here but do you mind breifly letting me know what those were.

BA initially had quite a lot of problems with the GE90s on their early 777-200s IIRC.

Quoting FCKC (Reply 18):
I think this order will not be placed before 2007 , time for them to see how the A380 will perform with all A380 airlines (in fact nearly all the A380 customers worldwide) landing at LHR.

I would expect any order to be in 2010-2012 sort of timeframe.
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Experimental
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 1:48 am

Quoting FCKC (Reply 18):
Probably 747-8 ( 100 seats less vis a vis A380) would be the right plane to do this job.But in this case they will probably do not need to order 777-300ERs.

I believe to replace the 57 744 with 57 748i would be to bigger a capacity increase. 2 X 744 = 1 X 77W + 1 X 748i would be a better replacement IMHO.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 1:56 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
748i

Every time I see this, I think of a BMW.

Quoting Nicolasdec (Thread starter):
Do you have any information if British airways will buy any A380's?

For both the 380 and 748i it depends on the capacity shift created by the 787/A350 when markets fully fragment over the next 5-10 years. This could in fact reduce LHR demand making the 777-300ER more practical. If you start offloading service currently connecting at LHR, you could have the reverse of what Airbus is predicting in terms of larger aircraft needed to meet demand, at least short term (10-15 years). You're already starting to see some of this fragmentation with US domestic carriers hitting new destinations in Europe and hub avoidance. There will be a need for 747 replacement at BA, hard to say how big it will have to be. BA could choose the same route as US carriers with LHR modernization complete by targeting new markets not feasible with 300+ seat aircraft, then using alternate airports such as Gatwick currently planning on adding a runway. Also, given their seating arrangements on the 747, imagine a 9 across coach section vs. 10 across that would hold more seats than the -400. You can get about 350-370 seats in there given their configurations. That might be enough, and damn comfortable too.

[Edited 2006-05-16 19:03:55]
 
ScottB
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 2:00 am

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 3):
The A380 offers a competetive advantage in terms of seat-mile-cost and generous in-cabin space envirenment.

In comparison to models currently flying. It may not, however, offer any advantage at all in seat-mile cost over the 747-8I.

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 3):
Slot availabilities is another issue that can not just simply be neglected in some airports.

Ironically, slots are probably the least of BA's concerns vis a vis the A380. They are the largest slotholder at LHR and can easily reallocate slots used for short-haul services to longer-haul flying if needed.

What I fail to understand is why people blindly argue that the A380 somehow enables a better product solely due to its size. Airlines can offer more or less identical premium and/or economy products on A380's, 747's, A340's, 777's, A330's, or 767's if they choose to configure the passenger cabin as such. And given comparable products, the demand on a given route is basically constant no matter how many seats are on offer. While the A380 will allow an airline to offer more seats, I would argue that the incremental seats offered over a 747-400 or 747-8I (the nearest-sized competitors) are generally the lowest-yield seats on the plane. If, averaged over the year, the revenue from those seats is greater than the incremental trip costs incurred by the A380, it makes sense to use it. I believe, however, that BA's strategy is to constrain capacity somewhat in order to maintain yields -- and that argues against a BA order for the A380.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
Will AA buy 787 's ?

This has exactly what to do with the topic? How much chance is there of an AA order for Airbus after the finger-pointing due to AA 587?
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 2:05 am

Quoting ScottB (Reply 22):
This has exactly what to do with the topic? How much chance is there of an AA order for Airbus after the finger-pointing due to AA 587?

We agree... Totally pointless comment to the conversation.
 
ScottB
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 2:21 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 23):
We agree...

Whoa...someone record the date!
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 2:24 am

Quoting ScottB (Reply 24):
Whoa...someone record the date!

No doubt.
 
747727
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 2:42 am

I hope they don't order any a380's.
I would like them to order the 748 instead.
 
planesarecool
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 2:53 am

Quoting Nicolasdec (Thread starter):
Will British Airways Buy A380's

When will NW retire their DC-9's?
When will AF clean their aircraft?

To be honest, this topic comes up so often that until theres any solid info on the topic, its pretty pointless.

I don't think they'll ever buy the A380 - as far as i know, only a few gates at T5 will be built to accomodate the A380, and it would be unlike BA to only buy a few. Also it provides less flexability in all cabins. On flights with one daily flight, there is likely too little demand for it - for 2 daily B744's then one daily A380 would be too little and 2 would be too much. For 3 daily B744's, then two A380's would be too little - although two B744's and a B777 (or vice versa) would work for two A380's, however then you have a question of business/first flexibility and also as to whether the airport is ready to accomodate it. To be honest, if they have any sense, they won't order it.
 
mbj2000
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 3:03 am

You're quite quick at attacking someone?!
I guess he meant, as sure as it is that AA will order the 787, so will BA order the A380...

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 23):
Quoting ScottB (Reply 22):This has exactly what to do with the topic? How much chance is there of an AA order for Airbus after the finger-pointing due to AA 587?
We agree... Totally pointless comment to the conversation.
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Boeing7E7
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 3:08 am

Quoting MBJ2000 (Reply 28):
You're quite quick at attacking someone?!
I guess he meant, as sure as it is that AA will order the 787, so will BA order the A380...

Seriously, consider the source of the comment.
 
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 4:44 am

Quoting AlanUK (Reply 5):
It's not a tradition, it's actually following the difficulties encountered by BA after the 777 launch.

Just to clarify, BA had issues with the original GE-90. I'm not saying the GE-90 is a bad engine... it just had a rough entry into service.

Because of this experience, BA will probably never buy a new airframe/engine with less than 2 years of proven reliable service. By reliable, I'm talking a high proven dispatch rate (say 99.5%+) with known fixes for any issues.

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wrighbrothers
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 5:36 am

Personally, I doubt they will buy the A380 for a while yet (if at all), it's too big for their current needs and isn't exactly going to help BA's financial situation, they need to sort out all their other problems first (pension etc) then we can talk about orders, but until then, I highly doubt it*

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heathrow
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 5:41 am

although I doubt it, it is a possability. I think they'd be more drawn to the 748
 
vv701
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 5:53 am

Quoting FCKC (Reply 18):
But in this case they will probably do not need to order 777-300ERs.
But they are rumoured to have reserved slots for the later , indicating this plane will replace 744s .

BA have (not rumoured to have) preliminary production line allocations for ten 777s - model unspecified (so not necessarily 773s).

Quoting VV701 (Reply 9):
It is interesting that both BA and Japan Air Lines - who have the largest 747 fleets - have both expressed a degree of coolness to the 380 and both last expanded their long haul fleets by adding 777s

Perhaps I ought to expand the above a little. My thought process was that before deciding to go the Super Jumbo or Dreamliner route Boeing would consult the market place privately and two likely airlines they would consult would be those with the largest 747 fleets, namely Japan Air Lines and British Airways. So when A announced they were going the Super Jumbo route but B announced they would go the Dreamliner route I would have had expected that BA would have input to the B decision.

Since then, of course B have announced the 748 and A the 350 perhaps because both are concerned they jumped the wrong way. However recently - see recent thread - JAL have made similar cautious statements about the 380 to those made by BA and quoted above.
 
LHR777
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 6:42 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 9):
The majority (31) have a 'Low J' cabin configuration for 291 passengers (F14 / J70 / W30 / Y177). The rest are configured for 360 passengers (F14 / J38 / W36 / Y272).

The 'Low-J' is the 38-seat J cabin, the 'high-J' is the 70-seat J cabin.
 
ebbuk
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 7:32 am

Quoting 747727 (Reply 26):
I hope they don't order any a380's.
I would like them to order the 748 instead.

i hope they do too. They're happy to pay top dollar for Boeing. Anything Airbus and they think we owe them a living. After the A320 deal knowing them they'd want an A380 for GBP2.50.

Bog off. 10 yrs ago, you were worth chasing. Today, you come to us B(ad) A(ttitude).

Good thing Leahy head Airbus sales he wouldn't possibly dream of saying that. But I would. OOh let me at 'em
 
elvis777
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 11:29 am

Hello EBBUK,

I am intrigued. Arew you saying you have definite (verifiable) proof that EADS sold the 320 to BA at a loss? Or is this just a gut feeling ("the new 350 will be a stunner") not based on reality?


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jacobin777
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 12:13 pm

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 36):

I am intrigued. Arew you saying you have definite (verifiable) proof that EADS sold the 320 to BA at a loss? Or is this just a gut feeling ("the new 350 will be a stunner") not based on reality?

neither Airbus nor Boeing are allowed to sell planes at a loss..that would be against WTO "dumping" rules.....
"Up the Irons!"
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 12:31 pm

Quoting B747-4U3 (Reply 10):
The problem is that 2 A380s do not equal 3 744s.

By cabin floor area, 2xA388 = 3x744 (within a percent or so)

Quoting Poitin (Reply 15):
It is very hard to send only 1/2 of a A380.

 Smile you surely must be talking about the A190 (is that with Trent 450's or GP3600's ?)

Quoting ScottB (Reply 22):
It may not, however, offer any advantage at all in seat-mile cost over the 747-8I.

I would say the jury is still out on that one. The "seat" part is a matter of controversy, and the seat counts bandied about by Boeing are certainly to their product's advantage. Boeing claims the 748i OEW is 13% less per seat than the A388, but on the basis of usable cabin floor area, the advantage is closer to 2%.
 
ebbuk
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 4:29 pm

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 38):
is this just his 'gut' feeling or an emotional response that is NOT based on reality.

Why is a gut feeling different to an emotional response? Both are made with no any factual evidence right?

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 37):

neither Airbus nor Boeing are allowed to sell planes at a loss..that would be against WTO "dumping" rules.....

don't patronise me, I am very much aware of this and the accounting tricks that EVERY company employs to make a deal.
Boeing and Airbus contested the narrowbody order and the US plane maker came out last. But they had the best plane didn't they? Um no, their planes were more expensive

So it is my belief (gut, emotional or otherwise) that they'd want a sweet deal for the A380. Based on BA's attitude to it's fellow European company I wouldn't waste the Eurostar fare to London if I worked at Airbus.
 
zvezda
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 4:51 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Its nearly certain that BA will order either 748i, A380 or maybe even both at some time, its just not certain when.

It's possible that BA might someday buy one or the other, but it is far from certain. I might even say it's unlikely.

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 3):
The A380 offers a competetive advantage in terms of seat-mile-cost

 talktothehand  Stop! Not true! Both the B747-8I and the B787-10 offer lower CASM. The A350 is likely to also offer lower CASM. If it doesn't, it won't do well against the B787.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 15):

I doubt BA will buy any Whalejets, and I seriously doubt they will buy more than a handful of 748i because a half-full plane is no longer an economic possibility. You are far better off sending two smaller planes that are full than you are sending one plane that is half full.

 checkmark 

BA didn't buy their JumboJets for their size. BA bought them despite their size. BA bought them because, at the time, no other airliner had the range and because no other airliner rivaled the JumboJet in CASM.

Going forward, BA very well may decide they don't need any new airliners larger than the A350. Anyone who suffers from the falacy that BA have a slot constraint problem at LHR should count how many single-aisle movements BA have per day at LHR.
 
Beaucaire
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 6:01 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 42):
Stop! Not true! Both the B747-8I and the B787-10 offer lower CASM. The A350 is likely to also offer lower CASM. If it doesn't, it won't do well against the B787.

Thats's why so many companies have ordered the 747-8I for passenger transport applications.....
Give me a break in your unilateral Yankee support and become somewhat more realistic in your statements.The A380 has been chosen by quite some reputable airlines precicely for the reasons I mention.
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Rom1
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 6:07 pm

BA is concentrated on the business market mainly where routes are operated by 744. Business travellers don't want to fly with 500pax! It takes too long in US customs, same at LHR so they usually prefer to fly smaller aircrafts... Not sure if BA will buy the A380 then....
 
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keesje
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 7:31 pm

In terms of A380 vs 748 CASM many people have joined Randy's Seat Count Magic, the "S" in caSm.

The A380 has 35% more USEABLE floor space then the 748i.

So for a given (sober, luxurious or whatever) specification that could mean:

- B747-8: 450 seats vs A380: 607 seats for a specification A (e.g. 2 class)
- B747-8: 400 seats vs A380: 540 seats for a specification B (e.g. AF)
- B747-8: 370 seats vs A380: 500 seats for a specification C (e.g. Korean)
- B747-8: 355 seats vs A380: 480 seats for a specification D (e.g. QF, SQ)

However when seat counts per aircraft are higher the percentage of premium seats usually drops making the seat count difference between 748 and a380 probably bigger.

The big advantage of the A380 is that you can fly a large premium public and a large price driven, package deal public on the same flight.

A high density leisure flight & superior exclusive business flight combined in one slot, with one crew, one airframe. That does magic for your CASM.

I read somewhere (IATA) that at this moment 80% of all airtravel travel is between hubs. Airtravel is likely to tripple in the next 20 years. Fuel prices will likely remain high. 800 747's will be replaced in that period, including BA's.

FYI : 8000Nm range from LHR, BA's hub:


some destinations fall out of range, but not so many..


Now lets bring up an absurd scenario :
- the A380 performs as specified (reports from the tests support this)
- Airbus sells another 20 this years, 20 options are taken up.
- Airbus launched the A380-900 in '07.

Will the A380 be a success?

Place your your bets..

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Boeing7E7
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 7:46 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 45):
Airtravel is likely to tripple in the next 20 years.

...through market fragmentation.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 45):
Fuel prices will likely remain high.

Making larger aircraft a complex purchase option in a cyclical industry where it's easier to put a 300 seat aircraft somewhere else than it is a 500 seater.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 45):
Place your your bets..

Boeing 787-8/10 and a couple dozen 748i.
 
Sangas
Posts: 173
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 7:57 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 45):
So for a given (sober, luxurious or whatever) specification that could mean:

- B747-8: 450 seats vs A380: 607 seats for a specification A (e.g. 2 class)
- B747-8: 400 seats vs A380: 540 seats for a specification B (e.g. AF)
- B747-8: 370 seats vs A380: 500 seats for a specification C (e.g. Korean)
- B747-8: 355 seats vs A380: 480 seats for a specification D (e.g. QF, SQ)

However when seat counts per aircraft are higher the percentage of premium seats usually drops making the seat count difference between 748 and a380 probably bigger.

How would use of the fuselage "crown" area of the 748 for galleys, crew rest areas, etc., change your calculus?:

"...one feature that seems certain to be on the 747-8. The added room above the main cabin allows for a galley, which will free up seats in the main cabin for more paying passengers."

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/270463_air17.html
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zvezda
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 8:00 pm

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 43):
Thats's why so many companies have ordered the 747-8I for passenger transport applications.....

Exactly the same number as have ordered the very large Airbus during the time the B747-8 has been available.

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 43):
Give me a break in your unilateral Yankee support and become somewhat more realistic in your statements.

 rotfl 

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 43):
The A380 has been chosen by quite some reputable airlines precicely for the reasons I mention.

It was chosen because, at the time it was still selling, it had the lowest CASM of any airliner available.
 
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keesje
Posts: 14186
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RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 8:32 pm

Quoting Sangas (Reply 47):
How would use of the fuselage "crown" area of the 748 for galleys, crew rest areas, etc., change your calculus?:

It would add weight (galley for sure) without to many revenue seats (decent stairs, lift). It didn't happen during the last 30 years. Airlines are too hot according to the article you linked:

Little market for suites on 747-8
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/270463_air17.html

Singapore Airlines, Emirates, Malaysia Airlines, Qantas, Qatar Airways and Virgin Atlantic A380's will dominate the skyline of LHR soon. Of course this will not influence BA..

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 44):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 45):
Place your your bets..

Boeing 787-8/10 and a couple dozen 748i.

What about B787-9 (200-300 seats), B777-300ER (300-400 seats) & a couple dozen 380-800/900 (400-600 seats)?

[Edited 2006-05-17 13:38:23]
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
gkirk
Posts: 23449
Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2000 3:29 am

RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 9:09 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 47):
What about B787-9 (200-300 seats), B777-300ER (300-400 seats) & a couple dozen 380-800/900 (400-600 seats)?

Or how about 20 B748, 20 B773 and 30 B787?
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Sangas
Posts: 173
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2006 8:52 pm

RE: Will British Airways Buy A380's

Wed May 17, 2006 9:28 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 47):
Airlines are too hot according to the article you linked

I'm not sure what you mean, the article suggests that the airlines aren't interested in using the "Skyloft" area in the crown of the fuselage for passenger amenities like personal suites, lounges, business centers, etc.; however, they're quite interested in moving galley areas to this area in order to free-up space on the main deck.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 47):
t would add weight (galley for sure) without to many revenue seats (decent stairs, lift)

I would concede added weight, but wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the revenue generating potential of the additional main cabin floor space which would result; particularly if it's used to offer better premium services in competition with what's being promised on the A380.


Quoting Keesje (Reply 47):
It didn't happen during the last 30 years.

This area of the fuselage wasn't usable before:

"Various systems, including flight-control cables and air ducts that run along the ceiling above the main cabin of today's 747-400, have been pushed off to the side, leaving lots of room above the main cabin."

IIRC, this isn't really a revolutionary concept, cargo decks have been effectively utilized on the 747, L1011, DC10, and A340 for galleys, lavs, crew rest, etc. to free-up main cabin floor space, but the downside has been sacrificing revenue generating cargo space.
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