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1337Delta764
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Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 3:40 am

While we all find it likely that Delta will order the 787 for their widebody fleet, their narrowbody fleet plans are less clear. However, here are a few thoughts:


  • With the 737-800s on order, Delta could easily replace their MD-90 fleet. The MD-90 was intended to be Delta's original 727 replacement, but the dissapointing performance of the MD-90 caused Delta to switch to the 737-800.
  • With no 757 replacement currently, Delta will likely wait for the 737RS, which may feature an aircraft the size of a 757-200 with its range.
  • The MD-88s are a tough call. Delta has many options for 737-800s. However, Delta could also wait for the 737RS. If Delta waits for the 737RS, I really hope they put IFE on them.
  • Delta could also pick up some 737-700s, possibly converting the 737-800 options to 737-700s. This could help pick up where the 737-200 and 737-300 left off.


Does anyone have any thoughts on this?

[Edited 2006-06-24 20:41:09]
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 3:50 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
The MD-88s are a tough call. Delta has many options for 737-800s. However, Delta could also wait for the 737RS. If Delta waits for the 737RS, I really hope they put IFE on them.

I really think they will look at going for some Embraer 190/195s to take the place for many of their MD-88s. This is a very efficient a/c that is highly suitable for longer point to point route development as the EMB-170s have proven with DC/Shuttle America.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
With the 737-800s on order, Delta could easily replace their MD-90 fleet. The MD-90 was intended to be Delta's original 727 replacement, but the disappointing performance of the MD-90 caused Delta to switch to the 737-800.

I definitely see them getting more 738s. the MDs are not good commonality for DL and result in to much additional crew training.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
With no 757 replacement currently, Delta will likely wait for the 737RS, which may feature an aircraft the size of a 757-200 with its range.

These will be the last narrow-body a/c in DLs fleet they'll replace. Word has it they are going after the TWA 752s AA is dropping since they are finding they need more of them. DLs route structure is featuring many more trans-can's from larger markets in the east to SLC and they need the 752s to do this. Additional 738s can also fill this need.
For wide-bodies i do see DL getting more 772s, even some LR models as well as a 787 order.
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columba
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 3:56 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
Does anyone have any thoughts on this?

What ever Boeing produces, no chance for Airbus on this.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
MD88Captain
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 4:02 am

Endless. mindless speculation. Get rid of MD90's? When DAL is desperate for lift. When there's no market for them? When new 737-800's have to actually be paid for? MD88's are a hard call? When DAL is so deperate for lift that they are looking for used MD80's and used 757's? When expensive new 737-800's have to be financed by someone?
 
DeltaSFO
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 4:08 am

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 1):

They will likely fly the MD-88s for the remainder of their service lives. Despite their fuel consumption, they are very cost effective with renegotiated leases and will not be going anywhere in the forseeable future.

There are 738 order positions commencing in 2008. DL will maintain these for flexibility to grow in both domestic long, thin and Latin America/Caribbean markets.

There has been that well publicized talk about the TW/AA 757s, but the overriding theme of Delta's position seems to be that the 757s are something they would like to have but do not desperately need; as such, if the price is not right, they will not move to acquire these aircraft.

Various products are being evaluated at the 100 seat level, but this decision appears to be on the proverbial back burner. Delta seems to be more focused on addressing the widebody issues at this time.
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bucky707
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 4:12 am

Quoting DeltaSFO (Reply 4):
There are 738 order positions commencing in 2008.

actually, there are firm 738 orders starting in 2007.

Quoting DeltaSFO (Reply 4):
There has been that well publicized talk about the TW/AA 757s, but the overriding theme of Delta's position seems to be that the 757s are something they would like to have but do not desperately need; as such, if the price is not right, they will not move to acquire these aircraft.

This is a very accurate statement. From what I have been told we are looking very hard at some used 757s, but will only take them if they feel they can generate a satisfactory yield. So if the lease rate is not low enough to generate the yield they want, they won't take them.

as to the 88s and 90s, no way will Delta get rid of them now, not when we have many routes we want to fly if only we had the airplanes. Once the 732s are gone you will not see any aircraft go away until their normal service life comes to an end.
 
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litz
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 4:30 am

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 5):
as to the 88s and 90s, no way will Delta get rid of them now, not when we have many routes we want to fly if only we had the airplanes. Once the 732s are gone you will not see any aircraft go away until their normal service life comes to an end.

There's even been speculation on here that DL may go after the MD's that Alaska is dropping, if the price is right ...

MD's do have loooooooooooong service lives ...

- litz
 
bucky707
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 4:31 am

Quoting Litz (Reply 6):
There's even been speculation on here that DL may go after the MD's that Alaska is dropping, if the price is right ...

not just Alaska MD-80s, I hear they are looking at others also.
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 4:36 am

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 7):
not just Alaska MD-80s, I hear they are looking at others also.

What variant of MD-80s are Alaska's? The MD-88 has a different cockpit from the MD-82/MD-83, and would require differences training.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 4:41 am

Quoting DeltaSFO (Reply 4):
Various products are being evaluated at the 100 seat level, but this decision appears to be on the proverbial back burner. Delta seems to be more focused on addressing the widebody issues at this time.

With the 732s and 733s now history, the MD-XX become the most replaceable in DLs fleet, but you're right, I anticipate they'll announce they're intentions to acquire more 772s (including some LRs!), as well as the timing for a 787 order, and the Wide-body has been their focus for the time being.
Look for DL to emerge form Chapter 11 between Nov '06 and Mar '07. They will emerge in much better shape than UA did early this year.
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rwsea
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 4:43 am

Quoting Litz (Reply 6):
There's even been speculation on here that DL may go after the MD's that Alaska is dropping, if the price is right ...

MD's do have loooooooooooong service lives ...

I don't know if they'd want the AS M80's unless they can be fully refurbished and the price is very low. Those things are maintenance hogs and are much much more likely to result in passenger delays than AS' 737 fleet.
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 4:47 am

Also, if Delta orders the Embraer 190/195, will they be considered mainline or will they be considered as Delta Connection?
 
Lumberton
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 4:52 am

Check this out. Discusses both AA and DL.
http://www.leeham.net/filelib/060106Excess_Baggage.pdf
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
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rikkus67
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 5:18 am

Lumberton...an absolute eyeopener! Until you actually see it on paper, its amazing what the actual age of the US legacy fleet is! I wonder if there is any chance at a large-scale re-engining program for the large MD-8X fleet?
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FlyPNS1
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 5:28 am

Quoting Bucky707 (Reply 5):
actually, there are firm 738 orders starting in 2007.

There are 10 738's scheduled for delivery in 2007, but DL has already arranged for those to be sold to a third party. The next deliveries for DL are in 2008 (14 738's and 2 777's). See DL's 10-K filings if you don't believe me.
 
dutchjet
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 5:35 am

A few things to consider:

1. So much depends upon timing.....its unclear when Delta will begin the process of renewing its MD80/90 and 757 fleets (the 738s are too new, they are not going anywhere). When will Delta be able to afford to acquire hundreds of new airplanes? And, when Delta is ready to embark on this huge undertaking, will Boeing still be producing the 737NG family or will Boeing have moved along to the Y1 aircraft?

2. Most think that Delta's first order of business will be to update and expand its longhaul fleet - probably a good assumption. Regardless of whether DL goes with the 787, additional 772ERs, the 772LR or any combination of these types, this in itself will be a big undertaking and greatly affect DL's finances.

3. There are rumors that DL is seriously shopping the used aircraft markets....if the price is right, DL could pick up the ex-TW/AA PW powered 757s, they would be a useful addition to the DL fleet for both domestic and transatlantic operations. As for DL and the MD80, dont forget that DL flies one of the newest and most advanced MD80 fleets.....and I am not sure that DL would be interested in adding the MD82/83 to its all MD88 fleet. If DL is interested, goodness knows that there are enough MD80s around, dont forget that many ex-CO MD80s are parked in the desert at the moment and they could be probably picked up for next to nothing.

4. Guess time......DL will take delivery of more 738s in a few years time, DL will pick up the ex-TW 757s and then move along to the Y1 for the huge task of replacing its MD88/MD90 and 757 fleets.
 
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 6:01 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 8):
What variant of MD-80s are Alaska's? The MD-88 has a different cockpit from the MD-82/MD-83, and would require differences training.



Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 15):
and I am not sure that DL would be interested in adding the MD82/83 to its all MD88 fleet.

The first few (7?) MD88s in the DL fleet started out life as MD82s, I believe, and once the MD88 was certified and deliveries started, the MD82s were converted to MD88s. Wouldn't it be possible to take AS's MDWhatever and convert them to MD88s as well?

Also, the ex-TW 757s have slightly different cabin configuration than the DL ones, even though they are all P&W-powered...the DL 757s have over-wing exits, the TW have an add'l exit behind the wings.


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However, the TWs are ETOPs, and could replace the 764 from SLC / LAX / SFO to HNL / OGG / KOA, which could be shifted to the international arena. That also leaves about 10 757s for the international market as well. Think thin routes from JFK, and BOS.

Quoting Columba (Reply 2):
What ever Boeing produces, no chance for Airbus on this.

Don't be so quick to discount Airbus on this. Imagine, the new A350 / A370 is the perfect aircraft to replace both the 767-300ER and the 777-200ER, and Airbus, trying to make up for lost time and lost sales to Boeing, makes DL a deal they can't refuse...
 
bucky707
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 6:06 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 8):
What variant of MD-80s are Alaska's? The MD-88 has a different cockpit from the MD-82/MD-83, and would require differences training.

AK has a very small number of 82s and the rest 83s.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 11):
Also, if Delta orders the Embraer 190/195, will they be considered mainline or will they be considered as Delta Connection?

A 190 or 195 will be flown at the mainline.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 14):
There are 10 738's scheduled for delivery in 2007, but DL has already arranged for those to be sold to a third party. The next deliveries for DL are in 2008 (14 738's and 2 777's). See DL's 10-K filings if you don't believe me.

I'll have to trust you on this one. I thought the most recent batch that was sold to a third party was the 2006 deliveries of the 800......not the 07 deliveries. But I won't dispute you cause I don't remember exactly which batch was the most recent sale.

edited to say....actually, the more I think about it you are right. If we had 10 738s coming in 07, there would be a big bid out for -800 pilots. While there is a fairly large bid out right now, it certainly is not big enough to account for 10 more 738s in 07.

[Edited 2006-06-24 23:17:29]
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 6:11 am

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 16):
However, the TWs are ETOPs, and could replace the 764 from SLC / LAX / SFO to HNL / OGG / KOA, which could be shifted to the international arena. That also leaves about 10 757s for the international market as well. Think thin routes from JFK, and BOS.

I hope Delta NEVER puts 757s on HNL routes. Currently, Continental uses widebodies exclusively to HNL, and for Delta to stay competitve IMO, they should also stick to widebodies. For OGG and KOA, OK, but for HNL, NO!

That is one reason I would like the 737RS to be a 2-2-2 widebody. This would end the era of narrowbodies as mainline aircraft.

[Edited 2006-06-24 23:13:47]
 
dutchjet
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 6:46 am

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 16):

The first few (7?) MD88s in the DL fleet started out life as MD82s, I believe, and once the MD88 was certified and deliveries started, the MD82s were converted to MD88s. Wouldn't it be possible to take AS's MDWhatever and convert them to MD88s as well?


You are probably talking very big money in converting the MD82s to MD88 standard....the differences are in the cockpit and the MD88 has more modern controls and systems. Its unlikley that DL could ever recoup their investment even if it were possible, most of the MD82 have already been flying for many years. The conversions that you mention were handled by McD and done in connection with DL's huge order(s) for the MD88.

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 16):

Also, the ex-TW 757s have slightly different cabin configuration than the DL ones, even though they are all P&W-powered...the DL 757s have over-wing exits, the TW have an add'l exit behind the wings.

Really not such a big deal - DL already flies a few non-standard 757s (the ex-SQ/ATA birds) and DL also flies some non-standard 763ERs (the ex-Gulf Air birds). The engines are the same, that is key. But (BIG BUT), I do remember reading that the TW 757s have some nonstandard cockpit features that would have to be updated.

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 16):

Don't be so quick to discount Airbus on this. Imagine, the new A350 / A370 is the perfect aircraft to replace both the 767-300ER and the 777-200ER, and Airbus, trying to make up for lost time and lost sales to Boeing, makes DL a deal they can't refuse...

DL is a loyal Boeing customer......and one of the airlines that signed the now non-enforceable exclusive supplier agreement with Boeing. The 787 is the natural replacement for the 763ER (it does seem that the A350/70 will be a bigger airplane, even in its smallest variant) and DL already has the 772ER in its fleet......DL will stick with Boeing.
 
Lumberton
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 6:57 am

Quoting Rikkus67 (Reply 13):
an absolute eyeopener! Until you actually see it on paper, its amazing what the actual age of the US legacy fleet is! I wonder if there is any chance at a large-scale re-engining program for the large MD-8X fleet?

There was an article awhile back in which AA speculated on re-engining the MD-80s; I haven't seen anything on DL. Another major consideration is the OEM backlog. A320 is over 4 years of production; 737NG has got to be similar. The follow on next generation narrow bodies won't appear until 2012-2014, unless there is a breakthrough in engine technology. USD$70/bbl oil is going to continue to "stress" AA's bottom line and compound the difficulty of DL emerging from BK anytime soon (this is only my opinion).

I've got to ask: what good would re-engining do for either AA or DL?

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 19):
You are probably talking very big money in converting the MD82s to MD88 standard....the differences are in the cockpit and the MD88 has more modern controls and systems. Its unlikley that DL could ever recoup their investment even if it were possible, most of the MD82 have already been flying for many years.

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LawnDart
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 7:09 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 19):
DL is a loyal Boeing customer......and one of the airlines that signed the now non-enforceable exclusive supplier agreement with Boeing. The 787 is the natural replacement for the 763ER (it does seem that the A350/70 will be a bigger airplane, even in its smallest variant) and DL already has the 772ER in its fleet......DL will stick with Boeing.

At one time, DL was a loyal McDonnell-Douglas customer, too.

The management that signed the exclusivity contract with Boeing is gone, DL is in bankruptcy, and DL once ordered and flew the A310-300.

If Airbus were to offer DL much better terms on the A350-370 than Boeing would on the 787, and one aircraft type were able to replace the 767 and the 777 in DL's operations, it is not unlikely that DL would order it. Jim Whitehurst even mentioned that DL was looking at the A350-370...they would be foolish not to.
 
dutchjet
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 7:11 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
With the 737-800s on order, Delta could easily replace their MD-90 fleet. The MD-90 was intended to be Delta's original 727 replacement, but the dissapointing performance of the MD-90 caused Delta to switch to the 737-800.

Plus Boeing had acquired McD, had no interest in continuing the MD90 which competed with its 737NG program, and "persuaded" DL to convert its MD90 orders over to the 737NG.

DL is not going to dump its MD90 fleet so quickly - I think that DL owns the MD90s, they are fuel effecient aircraft that do a good job on the routes that they serve, and, most importantly, there is absolutely no second hand market for the MD90s.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
Delta could also pick up some 737-700s, possibly converting the 737-800 options to 737-700s. This could help pick up where the 737-200 and 737-300 left off.

DL thought of 73Gs as 732 replacements back in the Delta Express days but, in todays enviornment, its unlikely that DL will order any member of the 737NG family smaller that the 738. DL's position has always been that the 732/733s dont need to be replaced with new aircraft......increased flying by remaining DL aircraft and the increased use of regional jets will compensate for the retirement of the 732/733 fleet.
 
FWAERJ
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 7:23 am

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 21):
If Airbus were to offer DL much better terms on the A350-370 than Boeing would on the 787, and one aircraft type were able to replace the 767 and the 777 in DL's operations, it is not unlikely that DL would order it. Jim Whitehurst even mentioned that DL was looking at the A350-370...they would be foolish not to.

I wouldn't rule out a DL Airbus order, either... maybe Airbus will give the widget airline exit financing (a la US) in exchange for a big order of A320, A330, and A350/370 jets.
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dutchjet
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 7:32 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 23):

I wouldn't rule out a DL Airbus order, either... maybe Airbus will give the widget airline exit financing (a la US) in exchange for a big order of A320, A330, and A350/370 jets.

Right. After exiting bankruptcy, DL will be in the position to acquire 100s of new airplanes costing billions and billions of dollars. Do you understand what the word bankrupt means? And do you understand how much one airplane costs, never mind an entire new fleet? Think about it.
 
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ERJ170
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 7:35 am

Hmmm.. I wonder if Delta would look at Varig's 777? They appear to be available soon..

But i beleive Delta will remain a Boeing buddy...

With a fleet of 787-8, 777-2ER, 767-4, 737-8, MD88, E95, and E75.

I would expect the 787/E95 mainline order once they get out of BK.

I could see a possibility of less CRJs usage and more E70 usage (and I think we will see these flown by DL and a disappearance of ShuttleAmerica).

I can see DL becoming the Legacy hub buster.. With more P2P (1x or 2x frequencies only) from focus cities, important cities, and medium cities (E90 input).

And so says my crystal ball..
Aiming High and going far..
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:00 am

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 25):
Hmmm.. I wonder if Delta would look at Varig's 777? They appear to be available soon..

Different engines, and those that actually share the same engines are non-ER 772s IIRC.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 25):
I could see a possibility of less CRJs usage and more E70 usage

Will definitely happen, as the new pilots contract allows for more 70-seaters. Though don't count out more CR7s either.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 25):
and a disappearance of ShuttleAmerica).

Not gonna happen.

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 21):
At one time, DL was a loyal McDonnell-Douglas customer, too.

Only difference is that Boeing is not at risk of being bought by another manufacturer  Wink . Plus, DL only got dissatisfied with McDD before their end because their planes simply didn't perform as promised. Don't see any news to that extent with the 738a, 763s, 764s or 772s that DL flies.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:08 am

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 21):
DL once ordered and flew the A310-300.

They inherited them from PanAm. They divested themselves of them by 1995-96 or so. Delta has NEVER placed an order with Airbus, and I highly doubt they ever will.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
 
LawnDart
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:19 am

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 27):
They inherited them from PanAm. They divested themselves of them by 1995-96 or so. Delta has NEVER placed an order with Airbus, and I highly doubt they ever will.

Actually, some were inherited from Pan Am, some were ordered...
 
dutchjet
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 8:25 am

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 28):

Actually, some were inherited from Pan Am, some were ordered...



Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 27):

They inherited them from PanAm. They divested themselves of them by 1995-96 or so. Delta has NEVER placed an order with Airbus, and I highly doubt they ever will.

DL inherited an A312 and A313 fleet from Pan Am.....DL then went on to lease 7 additional newly built A313s directly from Airbus (the original idea was that the new A313s would replace the A312s which had less range making them not ideal for most transatlantic routes). In the end, DL disposed of its A310 fleet (most went back to Airbus under lease agreements) in favor of standardizing on the 763ER as its primary longhaul airplane.
 
Delta767300ER
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 1:55 pm

Quote:
However, the TWs are ETOPs, and could replace the 764 from SLC / LAX / SFO to HNL / OGG / KOA, which could be shifted to the international arena. That also leaves about 10 757s for the international market as well. Think thin routes from JFK, and BOS.

I hope not!!!!! I love the Boeing 757 series but on flights that long they seem to get a bit cramped. I would much rather have a spacious wide-cabin of a Boeing 767-400ER on a flight 4+ hours.

I am going to break my 100% Boeing views although I know Delta has pretty much stayed with Boeing the last few years. I wish Delta would look into the A-319/320/321 for a 737/MD-88/MD-90 replacement in the future. The 738 has to me the most uncomfortable aircraft flying today. I will go out of my way to avoid them. I have flown on the Airbus-319 and 320 and they are a lot more comfortable than a 738.

-Delta767300ER
 
wjcandee
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 1:59 pm

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 19):
the TW 757s have some nonstandard cockpit features that would have to be updated

Hmmmm...I wonder what the word "updated" means, given that some of the TW 757s were among the last built. Would the correct term be "dumbed down"?
 
Alitalia744
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 2:02 pm

Quoting Delta767300ER (Reply 30):
I am going to break my 100% Boeing views although I know Delta has pretty much stayed with Boeing the last few years. I wish Delta would look into the A-319/320/321 for a 737/MD-88/MD-90 replacement in the future. The 738 has to me the most uncomfortable aircraft flying today. I will go out of my way to avoid them. I have flown on the Airbus-319 and 320 and they are a lot more comfortable than a 738.

I hope DL stays with the 738 and eventually Y1 vs. ordering Airbii.

Long live the widget, and as always, if it ain't Boeing the Widget ain't going
Some see lines, others see between the lines.
 
wjcandee
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 2:15 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 12):
Check this out. Discusses both AA and DL

I am bewildered by the article you linked to. It is dated June of this year, and yet has some very old data. It talks about the DL 762s, all of which are already retired. It talks about 733Gs, all of which are gone. I'm surprised that it doesn't mention the MD11.  sarcastic  Also, to say that the MD80 is a "resale pariah" because it isn't ready for cargo conversion ignores its possible use in emerging economies around the world as a passenger carrier. However, as these airframes will likely be flown until they're ready to be cut into little pieces, that may be less important. These things are still reliable as heck, easy to fix, and provide satisfactory transportation for most passengers. They are not hideous fuel hogs, and there's nothing that says that they have to be replaced all at once, as much as aviation enthusiasts act like they do. Even at today's high fuel prices, the return on investment for blended winglets is still a multi-year proposition; to replace a whole 2-engine, 2-pilot narrowbody aircraft is a more-significant capital expense, and while the maint cost of new a/c will drop, the capital cost is a hell of a lot higher. Given that there is no crew savings or engine savings (as when replacing the 727), the return on investment will be significantly-longer and the cash drain will be significant.

As to the poster that mentioned that he'd like to see narrowbodies eliminated in favor of wider-bodies, it's not going to happen. A narrowbody aircraft is by definition more efficient than a widebody design that flies a similar number of seats (vis. 752/762), and nobody is going to trade away that efficiency now that CO has proven that one can indeed use 757s at the outer end of their endurance envelope without passenger defections. For shorter routes, it's a no-brainer. If CO and NW could get a substantial number of new 753s today for high-volume, medium-haul routes, they would. Were passenger preferences meaningfully different (i.e. they would choose a carrier based on whether the aircraft was a 762 or a 752), DL wouldn't have dumped its 762s. But it did.
 
mandargb
Posts: 268
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2001 8:00 am

RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 4:46 pm

My guess is they will make their fleet such that all planes are GE powered.
That way GE will get the return on the investment they have made. (If delta can pay). Figure the aircraft from there.
 
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kc135topboom
Posts: 11190
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Sun Jun 25, 2006 10:15 pm

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 23):
I wouldn't rule out a DL Airbus order, either... maybe Airbus will give the widget airline exit financing (a la US) in exchange for a big order of A320, A330, and A350/370 jets.

I doubt it, I don't think Airbus has enough money (due to A-350/A-370/A-380 engineering/production problems) to give DL for BK exiting. DL will drive a much harder deal than US did, time is on DL's side here. Now, Boeing might be an option, they have money to use for a DL exit from BK.

If the B-767 line is still open, I see DL ordering more B-767-400ERs as well as the B-777-200LR. These will be enough to sustain and increase DL international routes, and if they open a SYD to ATL route, they will need the B-777-200LR. The B-787 order will come later.

I see DL also beginning to retire the non-ER B-767-300s within the next year, or so.

For the NB aircraft, I see DL staying with the B-737-800, but will add winglets to any new orders. They may or may not take the ex-TW B-757-200s from AA when those leases expire. I can see a bidding war from other airlines as the used B-757-200 market is still in high demand, DL will simply be out bid on these aircraft. DL will, most likely order the E-170/E-190/E-195, as well as the B-737-700 with winglets. The MD-90s will be retired at the earliest time as these 14 aircraft are a maintenance drain on DL, because of the small fleet. The MD-90s will be replaced with additional B-737-800s. The B-737-200 and B-737-300 will be replaced by the B-737-700, but the Boeing Y-1 will become the DL NB of the future, as DL may become a launch customer. About the time the Y-1 is launched, is about the time DL will start to consider a MD-88 replacement.

Ten years from now, I see DL with just 3 different WBs, the B-767-400ER, B-777-200ER/LR, and the B-787-900. The NB fleet will also be just 3 types, the E-170/-190, The B-737-700/-800, and the Y-1.
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Mon Jun 26, 2006 12:45 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 35):
If the B-767 line is still open, I see DL ordering more B-767-400ERs

If the price is low enough, this could very well happen.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 35):
I see DL also beginning to retire the non-ER B-767-300s within the next year, or so.

This is not gonna happen, as DL not only needs the non-ERs on domestic routes for routes on which 764s and 763ERs have gone, but also for quite a few international routes to the Caribbean or LatAm, like SJU, MBJ, CUN, LIM and SJO, where especially the cargo space of the 763s is needed.
 
dutchjet
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Mon Jun 26, 2006 12:55 am

DL is short on widebodies..........the 763s are not going anywhere, with DL transferring 764s/763ERs to transatlantic service and retiring the 762s, the non-ER 763s are the only widebodies that remain on DL's domestic network. In certain respects, DL is unique due to the size and power of the ATL hub - its need some big capacity airliners to run certain shorter haul routes such as ATL-FLL/MCO/TPA as well as medium haul routes from ATL to the US west coast and to key latin american/carib destinations.

As for the MD90s - why would DL retire them now? It makes no financial sense....I understand that the small fleet is not the most cost effective scenario, but DL has the aircraft, they are fuel effecient and there is ZERO second hand market for they type (didnt a few MD90s recently get broken up?) DL's only choice with the MD90s is to fly them or park them.....and they are far too young to be parked.

As for more DL 764ERs - that would be a shocker........its unlikely for many reasons, remember the 787 has the same pricing as the 767 family......and the 787 is far more versatile, dont forget that the 764 is a bit short on range for some of DL's new long haul routes.
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Mon Jun 26, 2006 1:40 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 37):
As for more DL 764ERs - that would be a shocker........its unlikely for many reasons, remember the 787 has the same pricing as the 767 family

Going by list prices only  Wink . I'm sure Boeing could make DL quite a good offer to fill the gap.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 37):
dont forget that the 764 is a bit short on range for some of DL's new long haul routes.

Actually, except for ATL-TLV and ATL-NRT, the 764ER could easily fly all of DL's current longhaul routes. And even if its range was too short, the 764 could still be used to replace 763ERs on Euro routes with multiple frequencies, like ATL-CDG/LGW/FRA, and then the 763ERs could be used for the very long flights. All theory of course, but it could be done.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 37):
As for the MD90s - why would DL retire them now? It makes no financial sense....I understand that the small fleet is not the most cost effective scenario, but DL has the aircraft, they are fuel effecient and there is ZERO second hand market for they type (didnt a few MD90s recently get broken up?) DL's only choice with the MD90s is to fly them or park them.....and they are far too young to be parked.

Indeed. The better fuel burn compared to the MD-88 alone should be enough to offset the costs of being a seperate subfleet. And of course, the MD-90 is better for noise-sensitive airports like SNA, and is a favority among pax thanks to the 3-2 layout.
 
B4REAL
Posts: 2615
Joined: Sun Aug 10, 2003 5:53 am

RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Mon Jun 26, 2006 1:46 am

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 9):
With the 732s and 733s now history,

One slight correction, the 732s are in active removal from service, but still currently flying for DL. I think by the end of the summer they will be finished for DL, can anyone confirm the exact date?
B4REAL, spelled like it sounds & @RickVanover on Twitter
 
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litz
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Mon Jun 26, 2006 2:09 am

Quoting B4real (Reply 39):
One slight correction, the 732s are in active removal from service, but still currently flying for DL. I think by the end of the summer they will be finished for DL, can anyone confirm the exact date?

I've heard September mentioned in a few posts ...

It would make sense if they're gonna finish 'em off to wait until the schedule starts shrinking post-summer and the extra capacity is no longer needed.

I wonder if there'll be any kind of ceremony; DL has certainly gotten their money's worth out of those things ...

- litz
 
B4REAL
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Mon Jun 26, 2006 2:17 am

Quoting Litz (Reply 40):
It would make sense if they're gonna finish 'em off to wait until the schedule starts shrinking post-summer and the extra capacity is no longer needed

I agree with you there.

Quoting Litz (Reply 40):
I wonder if there'll be any kind of ceremony; DL has certainly gotten their money's worth out of those things ...

Not so much here, they leased a lot of them - but they were workhorses. Long history of mainline ops and Delta Express routes. Since it is a slice of the 737 series for DL, I'd say no. Not likely anything like the L-10 retirement, or possibly the 727 retirement. The 767-200 (N102DA) was different b/c of the Spirit bird.

So, I'd expect no real ordeal for the 732's departures.
B4REAL, spelled like it sounds & @RickVanover on Twitter
 
flydreamliner
Posts: 1928
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 7:05 am

RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Mon Jun 26, 2006 2:20 am

Quoting Litz (Reply 6):

MD's do have loooooooooooong service lives ...

Yeah, no kidding. Those old douglas jets will keep flying as long as passengers will keep getting on them. The MD90s are fuel efficient, the MD80s aren't bad either, they're paid for, and they have a place in DL's fleet.

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 16):
Don't be so quick to discount Airbus on this. Imagine, the new A350 / A370 is the perfect aircraft to replace both the 767-300ER and the 777-200ER, and Airbus, trying to make up for lost time and lost sales to Boeing, makes DL a deal they can't refuse...

Won't happen. DL is getting a great deal already from boeing - per the gentleman's agreement (formerly their exclusivity contract), They have a Boeing fleet, and in terms of logistics, mx, etc, it makes sense to keep it that way. We won't see an airbus flying in CO, WN, DL or an Airbus order from AA anytime soon.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 25):
Hmmm.. I wonder if Delta would look at Varig's 777? They appear to be available soon..

But i beleive Delta will remain a Boeing buddy...

With a fleet of 787-8, 777-2ER, 767-4, 737-8, MD88, E95, and E75.

I would expect the 787/E95 mainline order once they get out of BK.

I agree 100%. I think a lot of people are looking at Varig's 777s, though I'm pretty certain the engines are different. I'm not sure if that's enough to keep DL off of them - seeing how badly they are hurting for the international capacity and more 777 type aircraft. DL is staking their future on international expansion, and more longhaul jets is central to that.

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 26):
Will definitely happen, as the new pilots contract allows for more 70-seaters. Though don't count out more CR7s either.

In terms of passenger satisfaction, the E170/190 is head and shoulders above CR7. I see the big new orders going Embraers way, especially since E195s could have a real place in the DL fleet.

Quoting Alitalia744 (Reply 32):
Long live the widget, and as always, if it ain't Boeing the Widget ain't going

It's true. Are there any big legacy airlines that are that loyal to Airbus... I know there are some LCCs like jetblue and frontier. Is Qatar all airbus? Either way, Delta is going to remain loyal to Seattle.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 35):
I doubt it, I don't think Airbus has enough money (due to A-350/A-370/A-380 engineering/production problems) to give DL for BK exiting. DL will drive a much harder deal than US did, time is on DL's side here. Now, Boeing might be an option, they have money to use for a DL exit from BK.

Delta needs jets soon. A370 is a jet that doesn't even exist in full concept yet. That just won't do. US doesn't care what A350/370 they get or when it arrives. I see better odds of DL ordering 764ER's at a big discount (764btw, is a great, modern, and highly economical jet that they can get delivered quickly) than anything from Toulouse.

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 36):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 35):
If the B-767 line is still open, I see DL ordering more B-767-400ERs

If the price is low enough, this could very well happen.

Exactly, since you're looking at 2012 for 787 slots now, and DL has a huge 767 fleet they are happy with - coupled with 764's excellent economics, it could happen.

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 36):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 35):
I see DL also beginning to retire the non-ER B-767-300s within the next year, or so.

This is not gonna happen, as DL not only needs the non-ERs on domestic routes for routes on which 764s and 763ERs have gone, but also for quite a few international routes to the Caribbean or LatAm, like SJU, MBJ, CUN, LIM and SJO, where especially the cargo space of the 763s is needed.

They will not retire the 763s. DL is in need of jets to grow and to free up more aircraft for international expansion. Moreover, DL is trying to better develop its transcon US portfolio, for which 763 is ideal.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
fjnovak1
Posts: 582
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RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Mon Jun 26, 2006 2:45 am

The Delta 732's are in respectable condition as well- i've been on two in the past year (ORD-ATL and BDL-CVG) and they still looked more than airworthy.... I'll miss the pocket rocket!
Go Blue!!
 
Lumberton
Posts: 4176
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 7:34 am

RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Mon Jun 26, 2006 3:07 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 42):
I see better odds of DL ordering 764ER's at a big discount

Another incentive for Boeing to deal here will be to keep the line open for a possible KC-767 order from the USAF.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
deltadude
Posts: 117
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:53 pm

RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Mon Jun 26, 2006 3:13 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 37):
As for the MD90s - why would DL retire them now? It makes no financial sense....

don't they make sense in the high altititude places they are flown? Like Bozeman? I was under the impression that they have these for the mountains.
 
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litz
Posts: 2368
Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2003 6:01 am

RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Mon Jun 26, 2006 7:45 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 42):
DL has a huge 767 fleet they are happy with - coupled with 764's excellent economics, it could happen.

And don't forget that DL is one of the two airlines that requested (and subsequently bought) the 764 to begin with. They are intimately familiar with the aircraft.

Quoting Deltadude (Reply 45):
don't they make sense in the high altititude places they are flown? Like Bozeman? I was under the impression that they have these for the mountains.

Exactly - it's a perfect match for operations based out of SLC.

Remember, all that bad press about problems with the MD90s is largely old history ... they've pretty much worked any bugs there are out of the things. Didn't happen fast enough to salvage the main order for the type, but at least the ones they have are up to snuff, now ...

Weird, though, that their seating arrangement is 2-3, while all the MD80s are 3-2 ...

- litz
 
HunUtazo
Posts: 229
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 9:17 am

RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Mon Jun 26, 2006 9:24 am

dal will be purchased, not by amr,cal,lcc,nwac or ual...
dude
 
wjcandee
Posts: 9038
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Mon Jun 26, 2006 1:03 pm

Quoting Litz (Reply 46):
but at least the ones they have are up to snuff, now ...

One of the regular DL maint guys who posts on here and actually works on them disagrees with this to some extent.
 
USPIT10L
Posts: 2059
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 12:24 am

RE: Delta Future Narrowbody Fleet

Mon Jun 26, 2006 1:19 pm

Quoting Litz (Reply 46):
Weird, though, that their seating arrangement is 2-3, while all the MD80s are 3-2 ...

Other way around.
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