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RichardPrice
Topic Author
Posts: 4474
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 5:12 am

One Month Of The A350XWB

Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:57 am

This is something I was putting together the other night for other reasons, and noticed that tomorrow, the 17th August 2006, it would be one month since the A350XWBs launch at Farnbrough and thought it would be prudent to post an update on a.net. Nothing new here, but it brings it all together.

Timeline -

A350XWB announced on 17/07/2006

17/7 Christian Streiff reveals the new A350 Xtra Wide Body redesign of the beleaguered A350, comprising a 314 seat A350-900 (2012), a 270 seat A350-800 (2013), a 350 seat A350-1000 (2014), with a -900 ultra long range and a -900 freighter variant also being announced at launch.

Rolls Royce will power all three A350 variants, with a second manufacturer being sought.

18/07 Finnair publicly commits to the new A350 design, with negotiations for compensation already having taken place and agreed on. Finnair has 9 orders for the -900 and has selected Rolls Royce as the engine manufacturer.


18/07 Engine Alliance muses offering the GP7000 for the -800 and -900, saying they dont have an offering currently for the -1000.

20/07 TAM and Kingfisher both express happiness at the relaunch of the A350XWB, but TAM expresses unease at paying more for the aircraft.

21/07 In a shock announcement, Singapore Airlines announces an order for 20 A350-900 aircraft. This was unexpected after the recent 787 order. No engine manufacturer has been selected yet.

25/07 Rolls Royce officially agree to offer the Trent for all A350XWB variants, while GE offers engines for the -800 and -900 with a modified GEnx but declined to offer an engine for the -1000, with a possible reason being a conflict of interest with their 777 market. P&W reiterates a desire to offer a GP7200 based solution for the A350XWB.

25/07 Emirates reveals it is impressed with the new A350 design, but says it is still evaluating the 787-100 and no decision will be made soon. Udvar-Hazy of ILFC says that the new design is a step in the right direction with an increase in speed, and improvements to the empty weight, fuel consumption and passenger comfort. He also adds a word of caution about the way in which Airbus is attacking the 787 and 777 markets with one family.

Qatar Airways is said to be reluctant to pay any more, but has not commented publicly on the situation. US Airways was noncommittal to the industry press regarding a decision.

25/07 Details are released on the new A350XWB, including the fact that it will be a double-lobe ovoid, with the lower section retaining the same dimensions as the A330, with an increased upper cabin. Windows will be 5cm wider than on the A330 and the Airbus taper at the tail is missing.

27/07 TAM publicly commit to the new design, with conversion of their orders for the old A350 to the new A350XWB but notes that the airline doesn't think they should pay more and discussions are ongoing with Airbus.

01/08 Airbus offers A350XWB and A380 order conversions to Emirates in an ongoing negotiation regarding a suspended A340-600HGW order, with Emirates saying a link is currently premature but the situation will be resolved by the end of September.

01/08 Aeroflot says it is awaiting a proposal from Airbus for the new A350XWB, but hinted that the 787 had come out ahead in the battle for the airlines 767 replacement order, however they would still consider the A350XWB as a requirement for a larger aircraft may exist.

01/08 EADS warns that encrued development costs for the A350 prior to the XWB version would be written off.

08/08 Etihad confirms that the A350 and 787 are under consideration for expansion, mentioning that they have options to exercise from previous orders that may influence the decision.

08/08 Thai Airways confirms it is looking at the A350 and 787 for future expansion.



Well, there we have it, one month with the new A350XWB. Only one order since relaunch, several airlines reaffirming orders, and more details released. We can only wonder what the future will hold...
 
Tangowhisky
Posts: 667
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:26 am

RE: One Month Of The A350XWB

Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:20 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Thread starter):
Udvar-Hazy of ILFC says that the new design is a step in the right direction with an increase in speed, and improvements to the empty weight, fuel consumption and passenger comfort. He also adds a word of caution about the way in which Airbus is attacking the 787 and 777 markets with one family.

This is an issue I am trying to come to terms with as well. Airbus needs to not just tell a nice tale about the A350XWB, but their family story must be about their entire product line, and how each has a specific place.

With Boeing saying the 767 will be cancelled once the 787 enters service, it is much clearer to see where each product: 737, 787, 777, 747 fit in the various segments of the market. With the A330 and A340 still in the picture, I find Airbus story still a bit cloudy.
Only the paranoid survive
 
ual747-600
Posts: 628
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 1999 12:57 pm

RE: One Month Of The A350XWB

Thu Aug 17, 2006 6:14 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Thread starter):
Udvar-Hazy of ILFC says that the new design is a step in the right direction with an increase in speed, and improvements to the empty weight, fuel consumption and passenger comfort. He also adds a word of caution about the way in which Airbus is attacking the 787 and 777 markets with one family.

I wonder if it's sunk in Udvar-Hazy's mind that by encouraging Airbus to build the A350WXB how much it's gonna cost him in lower 777 residual values, especially his brandspanking new 300ER's.

UAL747-600
 
dhefty
Posts: 587
Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 8:04 am

RE: One Month Of The A350XWB

Thu Aug 17, 2006 6:18 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Thread starter):
Well, there we have it, one month with the new A350XWB. Only one order since relaunch, several airlines reaffirming orders, and more details released. We can only wonder what the future will hold...

Very good summary RichardPrice. It's still very early in the marketing of the XWB series, however consider the following:

1. US and Canadian airlines are rapidly emerging from difficult times. Last year US airlines accounted for 17% of orders. Normally it is about 50%. They will lean heavily towards Boeing, especially AA, UA, CO, and DL. NW is already on board the 787, along with AC. Only US may opt for XWB.

2. Chinese, Indian and Japanese airlines are firmly in the 787 camp.

3. Likely major XWB customers in Europe are LH, IB, & TAP.

4. Likely major 787 customers in Europe are BA & KLM/AF.

5. Boeing has a 4-year head start and will have far more flexibility to respond to Airbus offerings after 2012.

6. What will the 787 & XWB do to A330 sales?

7. Will the 747-8i be accepted as a viable alternative to the A380? Even though the VLA market is estimated at only 3% of deliveries, it still represents over 10% of revenue, or about $260Billion over the next twenty years.

8. In the 350-500 seat market, Airbus has no product to offer.
 
dank
Posts: 935
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:35 am

RE: One Month Of The A350XWB

Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:18 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 3):
1. US and Canadian airlines are rapidly emerging from difficult times. Last year US airlines accounted for 17% of orders. Normally it is about 50%. They will lean heavily towards Boeing, especially AA, UA, CO, and DL. NW is already on board the 787, along with AC. Only US may opt for XWB.

CO is already firmly with the 787. I think UA is the only iffy one there, in my mind.

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 3):
2. Chinese, Indian and Japanese airlines are firmly in the 787 camp.




You never know with the Chinese in the long run (i.e. they may buy some 350s, too). depends on the politics a bit.

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 3):

3. Likely major XWB customers in Europe are LH, IB, & TAP.

4. Likely major 787 customers in Europe are BA & KLM/AF.

I agree about the likelihood of LH, IB, TAP, and BA (but things coudl change). KLM/AF, though is another story. Who knows. Even though in the long run they went with newer 777s over more 340s, they have been taking 330s, so who knows.

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 3):
6. What will the 787 & XWB do to A330 sales?

330 seems to be holding up fairly well these days, surprisingly so. the freighter could extend the life, to boot. still wonder if a lightening program could be used to make a new shorter haul widebody viable...

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 3):
8. In the 350-500 seat market, Airbus has no product to offer.

and boeing doesn't have one in the same class as the 380... with the stellar sales of the 748-i, this may not be that big a deal. who knows. hopefuly boeing can get some sales, but is there really room for competition in that space? kind of like my assumption about a's take on the 787-3, not enough sales that could swing their way to make it worthwhile...

cheers.

edit (sig in wrong place)

[Edited 2006-08-17 00:19:34]
 
Scorpio
Posts: 5043
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2001 3:48 am

RE: One Month Of The A350XWB

Thu Aug 17, 2006 7:31 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 3):
2. Chinese, Indian and Japanese airlines are firmly in the 787 camp.

The Japanese: yes. The other two: no.

The Chinese ordering 787s does not exclude an A350 order, quite the opposite even, i.e. they have a habit of splitting their orders quite even. I'd be willing to bet good money that we'll see a sizeable A350 order from the Chinese within the next twelve months.

As for the Indians: only Air India have ordered the 787, that hardly constitutes the Indians firmly being in the 787 camp, especially since another Indian airline has ordered the A350 (Kingfisher).
 
chiad
Posts: 1330
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 4:24 pm

RE: One Month Of The A350XWB

Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:27 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 3):
2. Chinese, Indian and Japanese airlines are firmly in the 787 camp.

Yeah right!?! The Japanese I agree upon.
But the Chinese and Indian?!? How did you manage to come to that conclusion?
 
columba
Posts: 5237
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: One Month Of The A350XWB

Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:00 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 3):
Only US may opt for XWB.

I would not rule out the possibility of United Airlines being a potential customer for the A350XWB.

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 3):
3. Likely major XWB customers in Europe are LH, IB, & TAP.
4. Likely major 787 customers in Europe are BA & KLM/AF.

I agree with you that IB and TAP are very likely to order the A350XWB -in fact did not TAP already ordered the A350 ?

Different story with BA, AF/KLM and LH:
Granted; BA has a big Boeing widebody fleet but they also have a strong A32x fleet. Nobody expected them to order these in the first place.
If Airbus makes them a good deal on the A350 and the aircraft suits their requirements I see a good chance that we will see it with BA.
Speaking of British carriers the A350XWB might also be a possibilty for VS.

AF/KLM: AF is a loyal Airbus customer and with the exception of the A300-600 and the A340NG has operated at one point every member of the Airbus family.
In fact if you don´t see the A340NG and the A306 as a single type but a sub-type of an existing family they operated every aircraft every produced by Airbus.

LH: 50-50 chance. It depends if Boeing launches the 787-10. LH has stated not to become dependant on one manufacturer and will continue to have a mix of Boeing and Airbus aircraft. The 787 still has a good shot and not to forget that the 787-8 would be an ideal aircraft to replace Condors 757-330s and 767-330s (which all wear LH customer code  Wink).
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
dhefty
Posts: 587
Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 8:04 am

RE: One Month Of The A350XWB

Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:55 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 4):
and boeing doesn't have one in the same class as the 380... with the stellar sales of the 748-i, this may not be that big a deal. who knows. hopefuly boeing can get some sales, but is there really room for competition in that space? kind of like my assumption about a's take on the 787-3, not enough sales that could swing their way to make it worthwhile...

The 747-8i seems to be taxiing very slowly to takeoff, so its future seems a bit problematic at the moment. It's interesting to see what is being done with the 777-300ER at Air France. They have configured it with around 475 seats for certain flights (Paris-Martinique, I believe).

But the gap between the A340-600 and 747-8i, A380, and 777-300ER is considerable, and presents a long-term problem for Airbus.

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