Quoting LPLAspotter (Reply 96): Is this the one that collided with a USAF C-141 enroute to Ascension Island?

yes, that is exactly the one and IIRC it was not the Starlifters crew that was at fault here.

Quoting Vegas005 (Reply 98):
Considering I am a pilot and a mathmatician, if you want to get into satistics I will show you the facts. The only ignorant person here is you. Take the time to crunch real numbers including total hulls produced, cycles, and hull loses before you post such ignorant comments.
Oh really? That's rich coming from someone who dismisses the causes and circumstances out of hand. Let's take a look at the accidents you cited as proff that the aircraft is unsafe...

02.19.1973 Aeroflot Tupolev TU-154 66:100
Prague, Czechoslovakia SSSR-85023

"PROBABLE CAUSE: "Owing to the high degree of destruction.and total disintegration of the aircraft in the crash and ensuing fire it was not possible to establish the precise cause of the accident. The influence of unexpected atmospheric turbulence during the aircraft's final approach cannot be entirely ruled out.""

09.30.1975 Malev Tupolev TU-154B 60:60
Beirut, Lebanon HA-LCI

"PROBABLE CAUSE: Undetermined."

06.01.1976 Aeroflot Tupolev TU-154A 46:46
Nacias Nguema, Equatorial Guinea SSSR-85102

"Near Malabo the aircraft collided with Mount San Carlos on Macías Nguema Biyogo (now Bioko) Island at 750 m."

12.02.1977 Balkan Bulgarian Airlines Tupolev TU-154B 59:165
Al Bayda, Lebanon LZ-BTN

"When the crew weren't able to locate the alternate airport, they ran out of fuel."

07.07.1980 Aeroflot Tupolev TU-154B 166:166
Alma-Ata, Kasakastan SSSR-85355

"Two minutes after takeoff from Alma-Ata, at a height of 120-150 m, the plane entered a zone of high air temperature (30-40 deg C) where the airspeed dropped because of the wind. Then the plane was caught in a downdraft and stalled. It descended nose down until it struck a farm and crashed on a wheat field near the suburbs of Alma-Ata."

11.16.1981 Aeroflot Tupolev TU-154B 99:167
Nor'ilsk, Russia SSSR-85480

"While on approach to Noril'sk, the plane acquired an excessive vertical speed and descended below the glideslope. It impacted terrain in an open field about 470 m from the runway threshold and slid across the frozen ground for about 300 m. The Tu-154 had a high descent speed, maximum forward centre of gravity and slow flying speed. The high descent speed could not be countered by applying maximum elevator trim."

10.11.1984 Aeroflot Tupolev TU-154B 174:175 + 4

"Flight 3352 as approaching Omsk in poor weather; light rain, visibility 2 miles, 300 feet ceiling. Landing lights were switched off as they caused a reflection due to the drizzle. Immediately after touching down at a speed of about 140 knots the crew noticed snow cleaning vehicles on the runway. An evasive manoeuvre was of no avail as the aircraft struck two vehicles and crashed in flames. One of the controllers had fallen asleep and thus failed to inform the approach controller about the presence of the vehicles."

Omsk, Russia SSSR-85243
12.23.1984 Aeroflot Tupolev TU-154B 110:110

"Two minutes after takeoff, at an altitude of 2040 m, the no. 3 engine suffered an uncontained failure. The no. 3 engine caught fire, but the flight engineer shut down engine no. 2. The fire spread around the tail of the plane, causing the Tu-154 to lose control just prior landing.
"

Kranoyarsk, Russia SSSR-85338
07.10.1985 Aeroflot Tupolev TU-154B 200:200

"Went into a flat spin while cruising at FL350 and crashed."

Uchuduk, Uzbekistan SSSR-85311
01.18.1988 Aeroflot Tupolev TU-154B 11:143

"Heavy landing; broke up.
PROBABLE CAUSE: The approach and landing were carried out by the co-pilot (against regulations under conditions)."

Krosnovodsk, Turkmenistan SSSR-85254
05.23.1991 Aeroflot Tupolev TU-154 13:178

"The Tupolev approached with a rate of descent during a rain shower and landed hard 13m short of the runway. The right gear collapsed and the aircraft started to break up.
"

Leningrad, Russia SSSR-85097
07.20.1992 Georgian Air Tupolev TU-154B 24:24
Tbilisi, Georgia SSSR-85222

"The aircraft didn't become airborne and overran the runway, striking the localizer building. The Tu-154 broke up, overturned and crashed into a ravine.

PROBABLE CAUSE: Overloaded and a centre of gravity too far forward."

02.08.1993 Iran Air Tupolev TU-154M 132:132 Tehran, Iran EP-ITD

"Mid-air collision between a Tu-154 (departing from runway 29R) and an Iranian Air Force Sukhoi 22 (on VFR approach to runway 29L)"

09.22.1993 Transair Georgia Tupolev TU-154B 106:132
Sukhumi, Georgia SSSR-85163

"The aircraft was shot down by Abkhazian rebels after a flight from Tbilisi. The Tu-154 crashed onto the runway and caught fire."

01.03.1994 Baikal Air Tupolev TU-154M 124:124 + 1
Irkutsk, Russia RA-85656

"PROBABLE CAUSE: Break-up of the no.2 engine starter, damaging fuel and oil lines. The crew shouldn't have departed in the first place, but underestimated the severity of the situation "due to shortcomings in the operational documentation and the instructions used for the training of flight and technical personnel, as well as the unsatisfactory information provided in the cockpit by the starter's status monitoring system.""

06.06.1994 China Northwest Airlines Tupolev TU-154B 160:160
Xi'an, China B-2694

"PROBABLE CAUSE: Auto-pilot induced oscillations caused the aircraft to shake violently. It appeared that the autopilot yaw-channel had been connected to the bank control and the bank-channel to the yaw controls. This was done the previous evening 'in the field' rather than in a workshop."

12.07.1995 Far East Aviation Tupolev TU-154B
97:97
Grossevichi, Russia RA-85164

"PROBABLE CAUSE: Fuel-feed selected from wing tanks on the left side only. This was done to counteract the tendency to fly left-wing low. The fuel imbalance caused the aircraft to bank to the right during the flight. The autopilot was able to counteract this bank until 35 minutes after take-off."

08.29.1996 Vnokovo Airlines Tupolev TU-154 141:141
Spitsbergen, Norway RA-85621

"Eighteen significant factors have been identified as leading the flight to the disaster.
For example, inadequate planning, unsatisfactory crew resource management and monitoring, a lack of a suitable procedure for offset localizer approaches in connection with an inappropriate rule requiring the landing course to be set instead of the localizer course, not solving navigational problems at safe altitude, not discontinuing the approach when procedural uncertainties exist, limited knowledge of the operating language and the actual airspace with respect to service given."

09.13.1997 Luftwaffe Tupolev TU-154 24:24
Namibia, Africa ---

"At approximately 1510 hours UTC, 65 nautical miles west of the Namibian, coast, a US Air Force C-141B Starlifter collided with a German Air Force (Luftwaffe) Tupolev 154M in mid-air."

12.15.1997 Tajikistan Airlines Tupolev TU-154 85:86
Sharjah, United Arab Emirates EY-85281

"PROBABLE CAUSE: "The pilot descended below the assigned altitude and unintentionally continued a descent into terrain. Contributing factors were self-induced stress, slight turbulence and non-adherence to operating procedures.""

08.29.1998 Cubana de Aviacion Tupolev TU-154M 69:90
Quito, Ecuador CU-T1264

"When the aircraft reached the Vr speed, it would not rotate. It took the crew 10 seconds to decide to abort the take-off. With 800 m of runway length remaining, brakes were applied. The Tu-154 overshot the runway, plowed into a soccer field. The plane barely missed a middle-income residential area.
It is presumed that because of the problems during start-up and the time, almost 38 minutes, that passed to the beginning of take-off, the final point of the checklist for taxiing was not complied with and the crew forgot to select the switches for the hydraulic valves of the control system."

02.24.1999 China Southwest Airlines Tupolev TU-154M 61:61
Rui'an, China B-2622

"PROBABLE CAUSE: A self-locking nut, other than castle nut with cotter pin as specified, had been installed at the bolt for connection between pull rod and bellcranck in the elevator control system. The nut screwed off, resulting in bolt loss, which led to the loss of pitch control."

07.03.2001 Vladivostok Avia Tupolev TU-154M 145:145
Burdanovka, Russia RA-85845

"The approach into Irkutsk was flown by the first officer. While on approach, flying at 2640 feet, an aural warning indicated a wide angle of attack. Eleven seconds after the first officer began this maneuver, the aircraft then entered a flat spin. The captain ordered the throttles to be advanced, but the crew were unable to regain control."

10.04.2001 Sibir Airlines Tupolev TU-154M 77:77
Black Sea - off Sochi, Russia RA-85693

"Flight 1812 had departed Tel Aviv for a flight to Novosibirsk. It proceeded at an altitude of FL360 on airway B-145 over the Black Sea. At the same time the Ukraine defence forces were doing an exercise near the coastal city of Theodosii in the Crimea region. Missiles were fired from an S-200V missile battery. A 5V28 missile missed the drone and homed in on the Tupolev. The missile exploded some 15 meters above the plane. The aircraft sustained serious damage, resulting in a decompression of the passenger cabin and a fire. The aircraft entered an uncontrolled descent, crashed into the sea and sank to a depth of 2000 m."

02.12.2002 Iran Air Tours Tupolev TU-154M 118:118
Khorramabad, Iran EP-MBS

"Crashed into the Kuh-e Sefid Mountain at 9100 feet while descending for Khorramabad, in preparation for a non-precision approach to runway 11."

07.01.2002 Bashkirian Airlines Tupolev TU-154M 69:69
Ueberlingen, Germany RA-85816

Mid-air collision due to ATC shortcomings

08.24.2004 Sibir Airlines Tupolev TU-154B2 46:46
Millerovo, Russia RA-85556

"Flight 1047 departed Moscow about 22:40 for a flight to Sochi. It crashed almost simultaneously with a Volga-Aviaexpress Tupolev 134 which had also departed Domodedovo earlier that night. Investigations revealed traces of Hexogen, a highly sophisticated explosive also known as RDX in the wreckage. It appeared that the explosives had been carried aboard by a female passenger. Two female suicide bombers arrived at Moscow at 19:45 on the same day on a flight from Makhachkala in the company of another two Chechens. They had taken aside on arrival and were handed to a police captain in charge of antiterrorist precautions, but they were released without apparently having been searched. Both women then bought tickets on the Sibir flight to Sochi and the Volga-Aviaexpress to Volgograd from a black-market peddler. After bribing a Sibir Airlines employee in charge of check-in and boarding one of the women was able to bypass security and get on board the Tupolev 154."

08.22.2006 Pulkovo Aviation Enterprise Tupolev TU-154M 171:171
Donetsk, Ukraine RA-85185

Cause unknown, as you very well know.

Of that lot, I can only see a couple of accidents where the aircraft might be "blamed". You obviously have an agenda but it's failed miserably.

[Edited 2006-08-22 22:28:22]

Interesting observation.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14465000/

Interfax cited other witnesses as saying the plane was intact when it hit the ground.

“It was falling down like a petal,” an unidentified woman told Channel One, waving her hand from side to side. “It was floating, it circled around, then it went down and then there immediately was an explosion ... and smoke started rising.”

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nolavconsole/u...0/newsid_5276300/bb_wm_5276388.stm

No foul play suspected

rip

I also made a photo of the plane at schiphol

http://www.persfoto.com/database/thumbnails.php?album=356

It was not accepted at a.net  

Quoting Vegas005 (Reply 98): Considering I am a pilot and a mathmatician, if you want to get into satistics I will show you the facts. The only ignorant person here is you. Take the time to crunch real numbers including total hulls produced, cycles, and hull loses before you post such ignorant comments.

Vegas - considering that you are a pilot and a mathematician - throwing around numbers in the way you do is frankly uneducated and irresponsible. Statistics mentioned by you, and even SovietJet, does not even begin to describe the TU-154 family of aircraft reliability or lack thereof. You make radical statements - when you do so, whether they are true or not (and in this case they are not), I hope you can back them up with more than just a cut and paste from airdisaster.com.

I cant imagine how it must feel to be onboard an airliner thats going to crash, and i hope i never have to experience the terror they probably went through

RIP to victims and thoughts with their families

Quoting Vegas005 (Reply 86): The TU-154 crashes all the time. In fact it has a history of incidents with over 2500 deaths. Not safe under any circumstances....

Well if that's your logic that makes an aircraft unsafe, look at this:

Boeing 737-200 - 1114 built (only slightly more than the TU-154).

19-Apr-00 Boeing 737-200 RP-C3010 Air Philippines 131
08-Nov-83 Boeing 737-200 D2-TBN TAAG 130
19-Oct-88 Boeing 737-200 VT-EAH Indian Airlines 124
29-Feb-96 Boeing 737-200 OB-1451 Faucett 123
11-Jul-83 Boeing 737-200 HC-BIG TAME Ecuador 119
22-Oct-05 Boeing 737-200 5N-BFN Bellview Airlines 117
08-Jul-03 Boeing 737-200 ST-AFK Sudan Airways 116
23-Sep-83 Boeing 737-200 A4O-BK Gulf Air 112
22-Aug-81 Boeing 737-200 B-2603 FEAT 110
03-Feb-05 Boeing 737-200 EX-037 Kam Air 104
06-Mar-03 Boeing 737-200 7T-VEZ Air Algérie 102
05-Sep-05 Boeing 737-200 PK-RIM Mandala Airlines 101
04-Dec-77 Boeing 737-200 9M-MBD MAS 100
31-Aug-87 Boeing 737-200 HS-TBC Thai Airways 83
02-Oct-90 Boeing 737-200 B-2510 Xiamen Airlines 82
05-May-98 Boeing 737-200 FAP-351 Occidental Petroleum 75
13-Jan-82 Boeing 737-200 N62AF Air Florida 74
03-Dec-95 Boeing 737-200 TJ-CBE Cameroon Airlines 71
16-Aug-91 Boeing 737-200 VT-EFL Indian Airlines 69
09-Aug-95 Boeing 737-200 N125GU Aviateca 65
25-Dec-86 Boeing 737-200 YI-AGJ Iraqi Airways 63
31-Aug-99 Boeing 737-200 LV-WRZ LAPA 63
24-Nov-85 Boeing 737-200 SU-AYH EgyptAir 60
22-Aug-85 Boeing 737-200 G-BGJL British Airtours 55
26-Apr-93 Boeing 737-200 VT-ECQ Indian Airlines 55
17-Jul-00 Boeing 737-200 VT-EGD Alliance Air 55
26-Oct-89 Boeing 737-200 B-180 China Airlines 54
31-May-73 Boeing 737-200 VT-EAM Indian Airlines 48
06-Jun-92 Boeing 737-200 HP-1205CMP COPA Panama 47
08-Dec-72 Boeing 737-200 N9031U United Air Lines 43
11-Feb-78 Boeing 737-200 C-FPWC Pacific Western 42
23-Aug-05 Boeing 737-200 OB-1809-P TANS 40
15-Sep-88 Boeing 737-200 ET-AJA Ethiopian Airlines 35
03-Apr-96 Boeing 737-200 73-1149 USAF 35
03-Mar-91 Boeing 737-200 N999UA United 25
02-Jan-88 Boeing 737-200 D-ABHD Condor Flugdienst 16
16-Feb-86 Boeing 737-200 B-1870 China Airlines 13
03-Sep-89 Boeing 737-200 PP-VMK Varig 13
15-Apr-85 Boeing 737-200 HS-TBB Thai Airways 11
13-Nov-95 Boeing 737-200 5N-AUA Nigeria Airways 9
21-Dec-94 Boeing 737-200 7T-VEE Phoenix Aviation 5
08-Mar-94 Boeing 737-200 VT-SIA Sahara India 4
15-Oct-86 Boeing 737-200 EP-IRG Iran Air 3
22-Jun-92 Boeing 737-200 PP-SND VASP 3
25-May-82 Boeing 737-200 PP-SMY VASP 2
22-Feb-83 Boeing 737-200 PP-SNC VASP 2
30-Aug-84 Boeing 737-200 TJ-CBD Cameroon Airlines 2
17-Dec-78 Boeing 737-200 VT-EAL Indian Airlines 1
28-Jan-86 Boeing 737-200 PP-SME VASP 1
04-Aug-87 Boeing 737-200 CC-CHJ LAN Chile 1
28-Apr-88 Boeing 737-200 N73711 Aloha Airlines 1
14-Feb-97 Boeing 737-200 PP-CJO Varig 1


That's 2816 fatalities, wow that 737 must be an absolute death trap in that case!

Quoting Lordg (Reply 103): No foul play suspected

Already covered above. There's no way anyone can know that this early.

Quoting Usair320 (Reply 92): Aol.com is reporting 45 children onboard.

Also a lot of children on this flight. Is that because Russian Schemes are sending kids on holidays? Just like the TU154 and the B757 mid air collicion back in 2002.

Quoting Sovietjet (Reply 95): Second, many of Russia's airports have sub-par runways and weather conditions which often lead to crashes.

That is very true. The US benefits from a fully funded aviation authority that can actually regulate things. Additionally airlines have taken a proactive role in developing systems for use in poor visibility. The technology at commercial airports and many general aviation airports is far higher than what you will see in all but a limited number of airports in the former Soviet Union. Afterall, you don't see crashes of planes near Moscow, but rather in more rural areas. Flying in general is not as safe in Russia. It isn't always the fault of the planes. Even with western equipment, there are still many fatalities in the former Soviet Union.

Quoting Vegas005 (Reply 98): Considering I am a pilot and a mathmatician, if you want to get into satistics I will show you the facts. The only ignorant person here is you. Take the time to crunch real numbers including total hulls produced, cycles, and hull loses before you post such ignorant comments.

That is very uncalled for when it is coming from someone that posted one fact and blew it out of production. The Tu154 is one of the most produced planes in the world. Roughly 900 frames were produced, which is on par with other high production planes such as the 707, 757 and 767. I would guess that the Tu154 has had a simlar amount of cycles to the 727-200 due to the fact that the Tu154 is still widely today used although it sold about 300 fewer planes than the 727. The Tu154M was designed at the same time as the 757. While it is not as technologically advanced as its western counterparts, it is outrageous to say that it is "not safe under any circumstances" especially from someone who is familiar with statistics. I would guess that if it was operated in the same conditions that the 727 flew in, that it would have had a much better safety record than it does.

However I fully agree that 2500 people is a lot. Fortunately newer planes have much better safety records, but there isn't much that you can do when the plane is hit by a missle, there is severe pilot error/poorly reported weather conditions.

This make me very sad as I luv the TU's and Pulkovo  
RIP

Btw, what a bullshit about Russian Aircraft are unsafe!!! They are
safe as any western aircraft period!

The news services make this sound like the pilot was making a belly landing at the airport because the landing gear wouldn't deploy. However, pictures and footage of the crash site, the undulating terrain, and the fact that it is over 40 km from the city of Donetsk, make me wonder if it was really trying to belly land. The crash site looks fairly contained and the devastation looks total - as if it plowed into the ground and exploded.

Hey,

Just got the info of the crew:

The Captain:
Korogodin Ivan Ivanovich

The Co-Pilots:
Onishchenko Vladimir Vladimirovich
Khodnevich Andrey Nikolaevich

The Navigator:
Levchenko Igor Yurevich

The flight mechanic:
Makarov Victor Petrovich

Cabin Crew:
Bagretsova Tatyana Nikolaevna
Ìàðûøåâà Lily Àëåêñàíäðîâíà
Semichikhina Svetlana Viktorovna
Kirchenkova Julia Mikhajlovna
Shaposhnikov Alexey Gennadevich

R.I.P. To ALL! I would just like to list those members as I feel they would have played a great role in helping to protect the aircraft even though the outcome was sad!

The Captain had over 6000 hours on the type (So I have been told). I also have a VERY, VERY sad comment from Polkovo: "From them 45 -- children are more younger than 12 years."

My prayers are with all of the families of everyone affected by this tragedy!  

Thanks
Mike

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 112): The news services make this sound like the pilot was making a belly landing at the airport because the landing gear wouldn't deploy. However, pictures and footage of the crash site, the undulating terrain, and the fact that it is over 40 km from the city of Donetsk, make me wonder if it was really trying to belly land. The crash site looks fairly contained and the devastation looks total - as if it plowed into the ground and exploded.

That's what i thought as well, from tv footage with the minimal wreckage and all the burned ground / material and ashes. I believe that if that was the case, at least as described, larger and more visible parts of the plane would result in the crash area.

[Edited 2006-08-22 23:20:16]

[Edited 2006-08-22 23:20:49]

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 112): The news services make this sound like the pilot was making a belly landing at the airport because the landing gear wouldn't deploy. However, pictures and footage of the crash site, the undulating terrain, and the fact that it is over 40 km from the city of Donetsk, make me wonder if it was really trying to belly land.

I wouldn't read too much into the early reports. Russian "spokesmen" seem a bit quick to issue so called "facts" after recent accidents, such as the Armavia accident.

Came home, read the news and WHAM! Very sad to hear this.
RIP to all victims. Not much more that I can say really. I've seen that bird take off from Moscow numerous times!

Aeroflot

Quoting Sovietjet (Reply 95): This is probably one of the most ignorant statements I've ever heard. Just because the plane has crashed doesnt mean its the plane's fault. You fail to see that several of those aircraft were lost to circumstances completely irrelevant to the aircraft be it Tu-154 or A-320. Second, many of Russia's airports have sub-par runways and weather conditions which often lead to crashes. Third, you can say the same about the B-727. 86 hull losses and 3699 fatalities. It's easy to spit out statistics that dont mean much unless they are analyzed. Judging by statistics alone, the B-727 is actually less safe. 4.86% of all 727s have been lost, 9.86% of all DC-9s have been lost and 3.22% of all Tu-154s have been lost . Judging by statistics alone like you are, the Tu-154 is actually much safer than two major American airliners of the same type.

Totally agree

Quoting David L (Reply 101): Near Malabo the aircraft collided with Mount San Carlos on Macías Nguema Biyogo (now Bioko) Island at 750 m."

Quoting David L (Reply 101): "When the crew weren't able to locate the alternate airport, they ran out of fuel."

Quoting David L (Reply 101): The aircraft was shot down by Abkhazian rebels after a flight from Tbilisi. The Tu-154 crashed onto the runway and caught fire."

Quoting David L (Reply 101): "At approximately 1510 hours UTC, 65 nautical miles west of the Namibian, coast, a US Air Force C-141B Starlifter collided with a German Air Force (Luftwaffe) Tupolev 154M in mid-air."

How safe would you be on a 757 in any of these circumstances

Quoting Richierich (Reply 75): Very sad - I think this picture says it all.

Holy God. Terrible news. Prayers to the victims and their families   . May they RIP. I wish these things would never happen......

Dave

[Edited 2006-08-22 23:35:47]

Also, alot of Soviet airliners crash in Africa and the Middle East where maintenance is at an all-time low and the airports have camels walking around on the runways. Plus all the conflicts result in many shoot downs and hijackings.

Quoting Spacecadet (Reply 73): Let's all take a step back and realize that, like in every other crash, the cause will not be definitively known for at least several weeks or months, and that's assuming the recorders are in good condition. You can speculate all you want, and I do that as much as anybody here, but you can't read what any of these officials are saying right now and assume they know any more than you do. You also have to assume that anything you speculate on, and anything anybody else says at this point, has a good chance of being proven wrong in the end.

Agreed. I was merely bringing to light some information in a time when not much was known and people were trying to find out what happened. I went online to look up some music and saw the article. I saw that is contained information yet to be discussed here. I posted a link to share the information with others. An intermediary.

Quoting Spacecadet (Reply 73): Ugh! I'll excuse this because your profile says you're 16-20.

That is mean. Why is myself being 17 make a difference? If you don't like what I wrote tell me anyway, even if I'm 10 or I'm 85. Just do it politely. No hard feelings, by the way  .

It is sad that the pilots had little control over the airplane. They might have been able to land with only a little damage, even with the wheels up.

Thinking of all those involved.

May they all Rest in Peace.

Quoting Vegas005 (Reply 86): The TU-154 crashes all the time. In fact it has a history of incidents with over 2500 deaths. Not safe under any circumstances....

Crash statistics for Boeing 727:

http://www.airsafe.com/events/models/b727.htm

Crew+passengers killed/total passengers

16 August 1965; United Airlines 727; near Lake Forest, IL:
6+24

8 November 1965; American Airlines 727; near Cincinnati, OH:
6+53/56

11 November 1965; United Airlines 727; Salt Lake City, UT:
0+43/85

4 February 1966; All Nippon Airways 727; near Tokyo, Japan:
7+126

19 July 1967; Piedmont 727; Hendersonville, NC:
5+74

16 February 1968; Civil Air Transport 727; near Linkuo, Taiwan:
3+18/52

5 January 1969; Ariana Afghan Airlines 727-100; near Gatwick Airport, England:
5+43/54

18 January 1969; United Airlines 727; Los Angeles, CA:
6+32

4 June 1969; Mexicana 727; near Monterey, Mexico:
7+72

21 September 1969; Mexicana 727; Mexico City, Mexico:
5+22/111

28 December 1970; Trans Caribbean Airways (American Airlines) 727-200; St. Thomas, VI:
0+2

30 July 1971; All Nippon Airways 727-200; northern Honshu, Japan, CA:
7+155

4 September 1971; Alaska Airlines 727-100; near Juneau, AK:
7+104

21 February 1973; Libyan Arab Airlines 727-200; Israeli occupied Sinai Desert:
8+100/104

15 September 1974; Air Vietnam 727-100; near Phan Rang, South Vietnam:
8+62

1 December 1974; TWA 727-200; near Berryville, VA:
8+85

24 June 1975; Eastern Airlines 727-200; New York, NY:
6+107/116

5 April 1976; Alaska Airlines 727; Ketchikan, AK:
0+1/50

27 April 1976; American Airlines 727; St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands:
2+35/81

19 September 1976; THY 727-200; near Isparta, Turkey:
8+146

19 November 1977; TAP Air Portugal 727-200; Funchal, Portugal:
6+125/156


Shall I go on? I'm not even into the 80's yet. Long story short, there have been 48 seperate instances where a 727 has been involved in a fatal accident, granted some of these instances had very few fatalities. the point is that raw statistics without context are of little to no value. Your post was basically about bashing the Tu-154 on reputation alone...because you've "heard" its unsafe. Unfortunately that is the perception that most in the West have of it...not only Soviet aircraft it seems, but Russian airlines as well. From a meaningful fact standpoint, lets compare: According to A.net, 1831 727's were built, the first delivery being in late 1967. Approx 900 Tu-154's were built, the first delivery being in 1971. The 727 was, to my knowledge, never operated by a Soviet or post-Soviet Russian airline, and also to my knowledge, a signifigant majority were operated by Western airlines with high standards of safety. Considering even 40 "major" 727 crashes, this is proportionally equivalent based on aircraft numbers to the 21 Tu-154 crashes you listed, remembering that there are half as many Tu-154's as 727's.

The point? Statistics are unavoidable...there will always be airplane crashes. What you've listed in your post is nothing more than a list of crashes...and it not even a slam dunk, clear-cut case of "this plane sucks" because, and this is unfortunate, it falls within the norm of expectation. IMO, I think that Russian airlines have a reputation, deserved or not, for being unsafe and this doesn't help. Its just sad that noone looks at the facts when this happens and relies on heresay, assuming that it was caused by some sort of incompetence or lack of quality, while whenever a Western aircraft crashes, everyone jumps to defend its safety record and define the crash in question as an "anomaly".

Next time, don't just list statistics without providing a basis for comparison to something similar. Put it into context.

-IR

May they all rest in peace. I must comment however, on this post:

Quoting MH017 (Reply 1): hmmmmmm, this soon after the Moscow bombing ? Could be something else...

I'd have thought that a comment such as this would not have shown up so early, not the second post in the topic. Do conspiracy theorists lie in wait for things like this to happen?

Looking at the passenger lists, it looks like 80% of the passengers were families...alot of them 3+ people.
136. Solichin Alexander
137. Solichin Alexei
138. Solichin Dmitri
139. Solichina Maria
------------
24. Karpov Andrey
25. Karpov Ilya
26. Karpova Natalya
27. Karpova Julia
------------
48. Alekseev Andrey
49. Alekseeva Anastasia
50. Alekseeva Elvira
------------
122. Popov Evgeni
123. Popova Valerie
124. Popova Maria
125. Popova Olga

And many more like these.

http://top.rbc.ru/index.shtml?/news/...ents/2006/08/22/22165311_bod.shtml
Scroll down a bit.

Quoting Sovietjet (Reply 95): This is probably one of the most ignorant statements I've ever heard. Third, you can say the same about the B-727. 86 hull losses and 3699 fatalities. It's easy to spit out statistics that dont mean much unless they are analyzed. Judging by statistics alone, the B-727 is actually less safe. 4.86% of all 727s have been lost, 9.86% of all DC-9s have been lost and 3.22% of all Tu-154s have been lost . Judging by statistics alone like you are, the Tu-154 is actually much safer than two major American airliners of the same type.

  

Quoting Vegas005 (Reply 98): Considering I am a pilot and a mathmatician, if you want to get into satistics I will show you the facts. The only ignorant person here is you. Take the time to crunch real numbers including total hulls produced, cycles, and hull loses before you post such ignorant comments.

Wow, I hope you aren't as lousy a pilot and mathmatecian as you are ignorant.

Very sad to hear. God bless them and the crew.

MCOflyer

My preys with the families of the victims of this horrible crash.   
The Tu-154 are, well maintained as safe as a other plane in the World.

I translated this from the site Mr.X mentioned eairler http://www.pulkovo.ru/


OFFICIAL APPLICATION FGUAP "PULKOVO"
THE INFORMATION ON FLIGHT ANAPA - sankt-»NONOiOOu

FGUAP "Pulkovo" with a regret confirms, that the plane of airline which is carried out flight on a route Anapa - St.-Petersburg was wrecked. The plane has fallen in settlement the Dry Beam near Donetsk. Flight FV 612 has taken off from Anapa under the schedule at 15.05. Signal SOS At 15.37 has submitted. At height of 3000 meters was gone from screens of radars.
In spite of the fact that details of incident are not known yet, we can confirm, that onboard the plane was 170 person (160 passengers and 10 members of crew). Flight was carried out on self-summer Òó-154-Ì.

PHONES OF " THE HOT LINE "


FGUAP "Pulkovo" will give the further information in process of its receipt. Phones of a hot line:
(812 704-34-51
(812 704-36-63
(812 324-30-70

THE INFORMATION ON PASSENGERS


Onboard the plane was 160 person. From them 45 ? children are more younger than 12 years.
INVESTIGATION

Management FGUAP "Pulkovo" renders and is ready to render henceforth all support and assistance to aviation authorities and other competent bodies of the Russian Federation in investigation of incident.
Heads of airline have taken off today for Donetsk for participation in work of the governmental commission on investigation of circumstances of an air crash. Representatives of airline work in operative staffs in St.-Petersburg and Donetsk.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Relatives of passengers of Flight 612 Anapa - St.-Petersburg can take off for Donetsk spetsrejsom, organized FGUAP "Pulkovo".
The start of flight St.-Petersburg - Donetsk is preliminary planned at 12:00 on August, 23rd, 2006.
Relatives of the passengers, wishing to take off to a place of wreck, can enter the name by phone
+7(812) 704-37-76
Or to send the information (FIO, number of the passport and a degree of relationship) by fax:
+7(812) 704-36-71
To relatives of passengers of the Flight 612, special flight arriving for a start St.-Petersburg - Donetsk, it is necessary to address in office of representation of airline " Pulkovo " which is located on I 3-eat a floor of air terminal Pulkovo-1, kab. 3096


CREW OF THE AIR VESSEL

Airline " Pulkovo " expresses the deep condolences to all native and close the lost passengers and members of crew

The commander of an air vessel:
Korogodin Ivan Ivanovich
1957 of a birth
Engineer-pilot I of a class, the instructor
The general strike more than 12 000 hours
From them by plane TU-154 more than 6 000 hours
Had access to performance of the international flights on 2-nd category IKAO
Worked in FGUAP "Pulkovo" since 1991

The second pilots:
Onishchenko Vladimir Vladimirovich
Hodnevich Andrey Nikolaevich

The navigator:
Levchenko Igor Jurevich

The flight mechanic:
Makarov Victor Petrovich

Stewards:
Bagretsova Tatyana Nikolaevna
Marysheva Lily Aleksandrovna
Semichihina Svetlana Viktorovna
Kirchenkova Julia Mihajlovna
Shaposhnikov Alexey Gennadevich



.............................i Can translate the passanger list, however i dont think it would be the proper thing to do!.....................

[Edited 2006-08-23 01:49:17]

[Edited 2006-08-23 02:02:06]

Quoting ATA1011Tristar (Reply 120): That is mean. Why is myself being 17 make a difference?

It's not mean. I didn't say you were stupid. I just said you were young; probably too young to remember past crashes in this area and the things that were said by authorities afterward. You're also probably too young to remember many crashes in other countries to see the contrast in how they're handled.

You just need to think critically about what's being said immediately after any crash and to not take this sort of "case closed" mentality that your original post seemed to have, as if only you seemed to acknowledge that the cause of the crash was already known. It's not. Neither are any causes ruled out, despite what the authorities are saying.

I know how these bureacracies work (I'm part of one) - I'm sure the actual investigators over there groan every time one of these government mouthpieces gets on the air with their latest theory. But rest assured, the real cause will be determined through painstaking investigation, wherever it leads and no matter what the government is saying today.

Quoting Sovietjet (Reply 119): Also, alot of Soviet airliners crash in Africa and the Middle East where maintenance is at an all-time low and the airports have camels walking around on the runways. Plus all the conflicts result in many shoot downs and hijackings.

I was trying to avoid being that specific but it's true.  

Quoting David L (Reply 87): In fairness to Spacecadet,

Quoting ATA1011Tristar (Reply 120): Quoting Spacecadet (Reply 73): Ugh! I'll excuse this because your profile says you're 16-20. That is mean. Why is myself being 17 make a difference?

My apologies, I should have said "in fairness to ATA1011Tristar. Sorry about that.  

Quoting IRelayer (Reply 122): Next time, don't just list statistics without providing a basis for comparison to something similar. Put it into context.

Precisely. A statistician who doesn't understand the data isn't much of a statistician.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 100): yes, that is exactly the one and IIRC it was not the Starlifters crew that was at fault here.

Correct: More info (although its hard to get any info on this accident) at
http://www.airdisaster.com/cgi-bin/v...te=09131997®=---&airline=Luftwaffe

LPLAspotter

Quoting Vegas005 (Reply 86): The TU-154 crashes all the time. In fact it has a history of incidents with over 2500 deaths. Not safe under any circumstances....

The 747 is "responsible" for more deaths than that. Care to call it unsafe?

As has been said, the operator and regulatory environment have a far greater effect on safety than the aircraft model. If the BabyFlots were flying only Boeing aircraft, said Boeings would be falling out of the sky with alarming regularity as well.

[Edited 2006-08-23 03:30:36]

Quoting Vegas005 (Reply 98): Considering I am a pilot and a mathmatician, if you want to get into satistics I will show you the facts. The only ignorant person here is you. Take the time to crunch real nu

Quoting Sovietjet (Reply 95): This is probably one of the most ignorant statements I've ever heard. Just because the plane has crashed doesnt mean its the plane's fault. You fail to see that several of those aircraft were lost to circumstances completely irrelevant to the aircraft be it Tu-154 or A-320. Second, many of Russia's airports have sub-par runways and weather conditions which often lead to crashes. Third, you can say the same about the B-727. 86 hull losses and 3699 fatalities. It's easy to spit out statistics that dont mean much unless they are analyzed. Judging by statistics alone, the B-727 is actually less safe. 4.86% of all 727s have been lost, 9.86% of all DC-9s have been lost and 3.22% of all Tu-154s have been lost Yeah sure . Judging by statistics alone like you are, the Tu-154 is actually much safer than two major American airliners of the same type.

Botth of you have very bad timing. Let it lie for now.

Quoting MERLIN (Reply 52): Sad News. Ne 1 with pics of the crashed jet.

Since they were already posted, here's a picture of the cockpit of this plane:

View Large View Medium

Photo © Fyodor Borisov

Quoting Vegas005 (Reply 86): 10.04.2001 Sibir Airlines Tupolev TU-154M 77:77 Black Sea - off Sochi, Russia RA-85693

How is this airplane's fault if it had been shot down?

Quoting David L (Reply 101): 10.11.1984 Aeroflot Tupolev TU-154B 174:175 + 4 "Flight 3352 as approaching Omsk in poor weather; light rain, visibility 2 miles, 300 feet ceiling. Landing lights were switched off as they caused a reflection due to the drizzle. Immediately after touching down at a speed of about 140 knots the crew noticed snow cleaning vehicles on the runway. An evasive manoeuvre was of no avail as the aircraft struck two vehicles and crashed in flames. One of the controllers had fallen asleep and thus failed to inform the approach controller about the presence of the vehicles."

I read about this one. Air Traffic controller was moving to the new apartment that day and requested to have a night off because he knew he would be tired after carrying furniture all day long. His request was denied and he had no choice but to report to work. When the Tupolev was on approach and pilot contacted the tower, this same controller was sleeping but he woke up after hearing a radio call. He gave pilots landing clearance without noticing an ice melter on the runway. The controller was sentenced to and served 10 years in prison.

Quoting Skippy777 (Reply 104): I also made a photo of the plane at schiphol http://www.persfoto.com/database/thumbnails.php?album=356 It was not accepted at a.net

You should try now, it might get accepted due to the sad circumstances.

Eager to find out what happened as I'm sure all of you are.

Leo.

Quoting IRelayer (Reply 122): Crash statistics for Boeing 727:

There is another one:
1988, YU-AKA JAT plane wet-leased to Talia Airlines crashed in Northern Cyprus.

Was this the same black sea resort that another plane crashed from awhile back with a bunch of kids onboard?

It's interesting how Pulkovo website is showing a list of all of the passengers as well as their passport numbers and ticket numbers. Does anyone else think they are being a little "too accountable"?

Leo.

Quoting Lazyshaun (Reply 20): BBc says 30 bodies found. Doesn't say whether their dead or alive.

  

I can't believe the adminstrators let this idiot comment stay on the board.

I think they just showed an amateur video footage of the airplane actually coming down and hitting the ground on WHDH News (Boston NBC affiliate, Ch 7). I was too far away from the TV and missed the footage though. In terms of determining the cause, of how much help would such a footage do (if it really exists)?

May all the victims of this accident RIP.

mbg

I was just watching a show on the science channel this morning about lightning. They were saying that most lightning bolts are negative charged so they usually just put a small burn mark on a aircraft when it gets struck. But some bolts are positive charged which apparently can be devastating to an aircraft when struck.

Scott

Quoting IRelayer (Reply 122): Crash statistics for Boeing 727:

FWIW, I came across a .pdf that has some interesting notes comparing the TU-154 to 727.

One paragraph that stands out:

"The level of flight safety of the middle-range Tu-154, Tu-154M planes and short-range TU-134, YAK-40 for the total period of their operation is not worse than their like of foreign made. The Fokker F-28 and BAC-1-11 safety level is inferior to USSR/CIS built planes (see Figure 4). The B-727 plane is the best in the world on flight safety in a group of narrow-body first and second generation planes and its safety level is close to the high standards of fourth generation wide-body planes. At the same time it should be noted that presently the fleet of all B-727 models has a total flight hours substantially more than the rest of the types of narrow-body jets – more than 100 000 000."

There's more in there and well worth the read, especially the failures between the two aircraft.

from: http://tinyurl.com/ltaz5

Quoting LPLAspotter (Reply 130): Correct: More info (although its hard to get any info on this accident) at http://www.airdisaster.com/cgi-bin/v...waffe

not exactly to the topic but when the general heading of this thread is the safety of the Tu154 - OK, this a/c was fitted out with very expensive military surveillance equipment and earmarked for flights over Russia/GUS territory to iinspect and observe de-armaments according to NATO/GUS treaties. Very embarassing for the GAF then, because this flight to South Africa was kind of a joy ride and not exactly in line with regulations. More to that, the crew, unfamiliar with the region, did not follow up to the "rules of conduct" in uncontrolled airspace. This might be the reason why the information is scarce.

The Tu154 was one of two inherited from East Germany where it served as Government / VIP aircraft.

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 82): 45 of the ones killed were children according to Norwegian press.

This was also told in the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet.

For me it makes it even more tragic then it already is when children are victims of these horrible things.

My support to all victims and relatives.

Sudden

Quoting Vegas005 (Reply 86): The TU-154 crashes all the time. In fact it has a history of incidents with over 2500 deaths. Not safe under any circumstances....

So do a lot of other aircraft, more so than you know.

Quote from BBC re Russian built aircraft:-

"Since its service entry, some 28 Tu-154s have been lost in accidents, a figure about normal for the quantity, years of service and technology of the type.

The Tu-154 operates in regions with not very good air traffic control and navigation equipment, and in very difficult weather conditions.

The Tu-154 accidents include a number that have little relation to the aircraft. "

That pisses all over age theories. May all the dead rest in peace.

Quoting SU (Reply 56): registration number is 85185. Was built in 1992 and had flown a little over 24000 hours

Quoting David L (Reply 101):

That nsort of reply makes me respect you . WElcome to my RU


Tom

Also a Dutch Person died as I can read it correct Anna Bakker

Dutch Goverment is still not confirming her dead.
Still not sure that she is from holland but with such a name it can't be much else maybe Belgium but that is it

The BBC is reporting as of 09:15 GMT that the flight data recorders have been recovered.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/5276784.stm

Supposed to be a video clip of the crash at www.expressen.se I cant watch it myself due to setting on this lended computer.

Quoting Levg79 (Reply 133):

Thanks for the extra information. It was tragic but clearly no fault of the aircraft.

Quoting BillReid (Reply 132):

Without the first remark the second one wouldn't have been necessary.

Quoting BA787 (Reply 144):

Well, thank you very much! But such an outrageously uninformed allegation deserved a sound thrashing.

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 147): Supposed to be a video clip of the crash at www.expressen.se I cant watch it myself due to setting on this lended computer.

You don't see much, just a sudden smoke mass. Wonder it that's a real video of the actual crash.