MSP Without Northwest

af773atmsp · Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:26 am

I doubt NWA will go out of service but here is what I think would happen to MSP. I only did the new entrants. It may look like a small LAX but I think its a good view of what would happen without NWA at MSP.
Airlines:
Air France, JAL (Japan Airlines), British Airways, Aero Mexico, Aer Lingus, Air Tahiti Nui, Jet Blue, Qantas, Air New Zealand, and China Airlines.

The Lindbergh Terminal would have all the SkyTeam airlines and the Humphrey Terminal would have all non SkyTeam airlines.

Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:31 am

Well it would be nice to see all those international entrants, BUT, MSP as a market doesn't quite seem big enough for all of them.

Quoting Af773atmsp (Thread starter):

The Lindbergh Terminal would have all the SkyTeam airlines and the Humphrey Terminal would have all non SkyTeam airlines.

That is assuming that a Skyteam member decides to take NW's place in MSP. The Lindbergh terminal is quite a lot of gates, so someone would have to set up a hub here or a couple airlines would have to have tremendous focus cities here. Would DL or CO set up shop here? Who knows...

FLYACYYZ · Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:36 am

Quoting Af773atmsp (Thread starter):
Air Tahiti Nui

They can't make NYC viable, but you think MSP is their next great hope?? Interesting.

centrair · Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:37 am

Quoting Af773atmsp (Thread starter):
Air France, JAL (Japan Airlines), British Airways, Aero Mexico, Aer Lingus, Air Tahiti Nui, Jet Blue, Qantas, Air New Zealand, and China Airlines.

It is a great dream your having. One of the most amazing I have ever heard (seen).

Of your list
AF and BA are BIG maybes
AM and B6s are more likely
JL, Aer Lingus, Tahiti Nui, Qantas, NZ and CA are about 0%.
JL is cutting back and would get little out of MSP
Aer Lingus is going LCC
Tahiti Nui can barely handle any traffic
Qantas will choose ORD over MSP
NZ will choose ORD over MSP
CA would choose ORD over MSP.

MSP without NW would be one huge empty building. DL, AA, UA and CO would build up. B6 and WN would enter and take a huge chunk. All international traffic from MSP would go on other legacies. MSP-NRT would be picked up by whoever gets their rights and then move the flight to another hub.

HHH would go back to being an empty building. Okay Sun Country will stay there. But otherwise with NW gone, Lindbergh would be empty and MAC will sell off the gates to whoever wants them.

af773atmsp · Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:42 am

Ok maybe not China Airlines, Aer Lingus, British Airways, or Air France. What if Continental and Delta flew from MSP to China, Paris, Dublin,and London?
I would hope that MSP would be the new hub for Delta. pray

thomasphoto60 · Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:50 am

Quoting Af773atmsp (Thread starter):
It may look like a small LA

MSP...a small LAX......?! laughing

I want some of what you're smokin. Checking your profile I chalk it down to the naivete of youth

Sorry pal as a former Minneapolis resident, I have to say that there is about as much chance of MSP attracting the carriers listed (save for B6 and possibly stress 'possibly' BA) as Miami getting a July snowfall.

Thomas

PanAm747 · Mon Aug 28, 2006 10:53 am

My first thought was to compare MSP without NW to STL without TW, but I think MSP has a few differences:

1) Anything that is a practical route to STL is a practical route to ORD. AA and UA (and their FF programs) have enough O&D passengers along with connecting traffic to make it worthwhile. However, MSP, being much further west and north, can pull traffic from smaller markets that are between DEN and ORD (think the Dakotas and northern Minnesota).

2) O&D traffic. St. Louis is a fabulous city, but I don't think that it has the business traffic that the twin cities do. I am NOT knocking St. Louis, but the twin cities have done much more to encourage businesses to move to the area, such as Target, and to market themselves as an alternative to bigger cities.

Based on that, I think if NW ever left, you would find that another airline would probably move in to take over some of those routes. The airport is already developed, although I definitely think there would be a lot more RJ's instead of DC-9's, but B6, WN, and other carriers might realize that this is a good market to be a part of.

Continental? Delta? Neither has a significant presence "up north", so who knows?

aaden · Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:20 am

I don't think that NWA will go anywhere ,but in if they do liquidate it would b a major blow to msp

iowaman · Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:25 am

Things that would happen IMO:

WN would enter and start a decent sized operation.
B6 would start service to JFK and BOS.
FL may start some P2P routes from MSP, similar to what they do out of MDW.
O&D numbers would go up, but total traffic would go down.

copaair737 · Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:28 am

Quoting Af773atmsp (Thread starter):
Air France, JAL (Japan Airlines), British Airways, Aero Mexico, Aer Lingus, Air Tahiti Nui, Jet Blue, Qantas, Air New Zealand, and China Airlines.

I could see maybe 1 of those airlines moving in. Maybe 1. TN (Air Tahiti Nui) is definitely out of the question. Aer Lingus, when it adds US flights will be to SFO and MIA. AeroMexico would be a possibility. Maybe JAL or AF, but I doubt any of the other ones.

-Copa

CO767FA · Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:30 am

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 8):
Continental? Delta? Neither has a significant presence "up north", so who knows?

Right...EWR is Northeast!

usflyer msp · Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:39 am

If NW liquidates US will most likely purchase the Asia, MSP, and DTW ops as they fill in the gaps in the US network almost perfectly. Plus US is pretty much the only carrier with enough cash and experience integrating bankrupt carriers.

malexander131 · Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:44 am

msp without NW?
dead.

sw733 · Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:47 am

Quoting FLYACYYZ (Reply 3):
Quoting Af773atmsp (Thread starter):
Air Tahiti Nui

They can't make NYC viable, but you think MSP is their next great hope?? Interesting.

Wow that was literally, word for word, exactly what I was going to say. Freaky! Wink

CO767FA · Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:48 am

Quoting USFlyer MSP (Reply 13):
Plus US is pretty much the only carrier with enough cash and experience integrating bankrupt carriers.

ROFLOL...no really.....ROFLO laughing

....to funny!

nateDAL · Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:55 am

It would look like a ghost town...but with snow.

FLYACYYZ · Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:59 am

Quoting SW733 (Reply 15):
Wow that was literally, word for word, exactly what I was going to say. Freaky!

Great Canadian and Namibian minds think alike!!
cool

centrair · Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:59 am

Quoting USFlyer MSP (Reply 13):
Plus US is pretty much the only carrier with enough cash and experience integrating bankrupt carriers.

Quoting CO767FA (Reply 16):
ROFLOL...no really.....ROFLO ....to funny!

I second your ROFLOL and raise you a ROFLOL till sides hurt. They can start a code share with Tahiti Nui.

US would have a little chance of getting those rights. CO or AA would have a better chance.

gunsontheroof · Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:03 pm

Quoting Af773atmsp (Thread starter):

Air France, JAL (Japan Airlines), British Airways, Aero Mexico, Aer Lingus, Air Tahiti Nui, Jet Blue, Qantas, Air New Zealand, and China Airlines.

No chance. MSP will be a very quiet place if NW closes shop.

Let's examine international service (non-Mexico/Canada) to markets roughly MSP's size (give or take roughly 500,000 people) that don't have hubs (this excludes PHX and SEA).

ONT-nada
SAN-ditto
STL-zilch
BWI-BA, FI (proximity to Washington, DC helps here)

Basically, MSP is dependent on NW for longhaul service. Should they liquidate, MSP will be lucky to pull in a single international flight.

population data from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...an_statistical_areas_by_population

af773atmsp · Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:16 pm

With NW gone all SkyTeam airlines would stay at the Lindbergh and all non SkyTeam airlines would still go to the Humphrey.

gunsontheroof · Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:19 pm

Quoting Af773atmsp (Reply 21):
With NW gone all SkyTeam airlines would stay at the Lindbergh and all non SkyTeam airlines would still go to the Humphrey.

MSP won't be of much importance to SkyTeam, much less any other international carrier if NW goes under. Don't kid yourself.

af773atmsp · Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:38 pm

I think MSP, DTW, NRT, and AMS won't be dead airports. MSP is the hub of Sun Country and Champion Air. DTW still has many carriers that fly to DTW. NRT of course will survive without NW. AMS is also a big airport. AMS has KLM and other carriers. MEM would be done for. And I would not like it if WN flew to MSP.

access-air · Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:47 pm

MSP without NW is like STL without TWA......

Access-Air

gunsontheroof · Mon Aug 28, 2006 12:55 pm

Quoting Af773atmsp (Reply 23):
I think MSP, DTW, NRT, and AMS won't be dead airports.

I wouldn't call MSP "dead" if NW leaves, but it will certainly see a significant decline in traffic. NRT and AMS are hardly dependent on NW for traffic as it stands now, and DTW is a large enough market to sustain steady service without NW in town.

Quoting Af773atmsp (Reply 23):
MSP is the hub of Sun Country and Champion Air.

Ah yes...titans of the midwest skies.

Quoting Af773atmsp (Reply 23):
AMS is also a big airport. AMS has KLM and other carriers.

AMS is also the main airport for a country of 16 million people. You can hardly compare AMS with MSP in terms of catchment areas or international significance.

Quoting Af773atmsp (Reply 23):
MEM would be done for.

Yep.

Quoting Af773atmsp (Reply 23):
And I would not like it if WN flew to MSP.

Then you'd better hope NW survives...WN will probably be the first to stick their foot in the door if NW shuts down.

SLCUT2777 · Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:01 pm

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 8):
I think if NW ever left, you would find that another airline would probably move in to take over some of those routes. The airport is already developed, although I definitely think there would be a lot more RJ's instead of DC-9's, but B6, WN, and other carriers might realize that this is a good market to be a part of.
Continental? Delta? Neither has a significant presence "up north", so who knows?

DL & CO would clearly increase their presence, but this is the type of situation that WN licks their chops over! I would see WN moving into MSP and taking over the Lindbergh or Humphrey terminal in one or the others entirety. Just like if DL ever left SLC you would see them (WN) moving from half the B concourse in terminal one to all of concourses C &D in their entirety as well as the rest of B!

SHUPirate1 · Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:07 pm

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 24):
MSP without NW is like STL without TWA......

Funny you mention that, because it's very possible that St. Louis would be the beneficiary if Northwest goes under. Fact is, those Dakotas/Minnesota/Wisconsin cities that have absolutely no service outside of Northwest, yet manage to somehow see jet service from them (be it Mesaba, Northwest, or Pinnacle) are unlikely to lose service entirely, and it would be foolish to think that a newly-slot-restricted O'Hare would pick those flights up. Lambert Field, anyone?

centrair · Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:12 pm

It would suck for the big corps in the Twin Cities (and the 2020 TCOCC) if WN became the dominant carrier. UA, AA, CO and DL would pick up contracts from General Mills, Rockwell, and 3M. I would hope that an airline with a little more international connection power would move in an take over MSP if NW were to fold.

as739x · Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:13 pm

MSP without NW...

@ <----- thats a tumbleweed crossing the runways!

ASLAX

MarkATL · Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:23 pm

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 26):
DL & CO would clearly increase their presence, but this is the type of situation that WN licks their chops over! I would see WN moving into MSP and taking over the Lindbergh or Humphrey terminal in one or the others entirety. Just like if DL ever left SLC you would see them (WN) moving from half the B concourse in terminal one to all of concourses C &D in their entirety as well as the rest of B

Where is the secret stash of "just incase airlines go out of business" airplains WN has? I would think their fleet is pretty well utilized now. WN might move start some service in such a scenerio. However, they would not take over an entire concourse. Especially with their gate utilization would, this would require the entire top secret "just incase airlines go out of business" fleet be activated, and removed from the top secret underground hangars at I guess.....Area 52?

MattMSP767 · Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:40 pm

Quoting Centrair (Reply 28):
UA, AA, CO and DL would pick up contracts from General Mills, Rockwell, and 3M.

They are called corporate jets....

That or they would fly employees on whatever works the best...

centrair · Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:44 pm

Quoting MarkATL (Reply 30):
Where is the secret stash of "just incase airlines go out of business" airplains WN has? I would think their fleet is pretty well utilized now. WN might move start some service in such a scenerio. However, they would not take over an entire concourse. Especially with their gate utilization would, this would require the entire top secret "just incase airlines go out of business" fleet be activated, and removed from the top secret underground hangars at I guess.....Area 52?

Don't you get it ... its gonna be B6. They have the secret "just incase airlines go out of business" fleet. B6 will rush in at MSP and build it as their midwest hub (highly rumored). Then...they will order A350s and start flying all over the world spreading their blue love with JetBlue International..."now singing happy birthday in 20 languages."

And if that doesn't work...there is always VA creating a Midwest hub connecting with service from VS and DJ (when they go international). All of the Twin Cities will be Virginized. Mall of America...Virgin Super Mall. Schools will change their names. St. Catherine's...Virgin University. The Minnesota Vikings? NO the Minnesota Virgins (they play like they are sometimes anyways) Everyone will call MSP the Virgin Twins. oh my... Smile

The previous statement was a result of coffee and over exhaustion. I plead insanity.

gunsontheroof · Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:46 pm

Quoting MarkATL (Reply 30):

Where is the secret stash of "just incase airlines go out of business" airplains WN has?

On order at Boeing. WN has something in the neighborhood of 130 737s on order, and I'd imagine they have a significant number of options available should any "unexpected expansion" become neccessary. If you drive by BFI regularly (as I do), you'll almost always see a WN bird or two on the Boeing flight line waiting for delivery.

MarkATL · Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:54 pm

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 33):
On order at Boeing.

do you think they roll off the line like cans of Coke? How many are already slated to replce retired aircraft and system infill? MSP as a new market if NW takes a dirt nap.....sure. Enough of an operation to utilize an entire terminal.....get real

gunsontheroof · Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:11 pm

Quoting MarkATL (Reply 34):
do you think they roll off the line like cans of Coke? How many are already slated to replce retired aircraft and system infill? MSP as a new market if NW takes a dirt nap.....sure. Enough of an operation to utilize an entire terminal.....get real

Chill. I'm well aware that airplanes don't "roll off the line like cans of Coke". Perhaps I should have been a little more specific; what I was stating is that WN is constantly planning for expansion, and regular aircraft acquisition is part of that planning. I wasn't trying to say that WN is capable of pulling dozens of new jets off the floor in Renton and throwing them at any new market they enter.

MarkATL · Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:17 pm

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 35):
Chill.

When you're in Atlanta in August, it's hard to chill. However, for the sake of this discussion consider me chilled. cold

aviatortj · Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:28 pm

The OP wouldn't happen to be from MSY by chance?

Just to chime in with a quick two cent response, NWA is to MSP as TWA is to STL. The airport would be eerily slow, with a couple of possible new entrants. I don't count on it.

alaska737 · Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:08 pm

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 8):
My first thought was to compare MSP without NW to STL without TW

couldnt have said it better....

Quoting AS739X (Reply 29):
MSP without NW...

@ <----- thats a tumbleweed crossing the runways!

...ok that might be better

would be nice seeing someting besides red tails.

red tail, red tail, red tail, red tail....damn MSP

flydreamliner · Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:05 am

Quoting Acidradio (Reply 1):
Well it would be nice to see all those international entrants, BUT, MSP as a market doesn't quite seem big enough for all of them.

We'd get a few international airlines in the absence of NW. Who knows though. BA and AF are good possibilities, seeing as MSP serves as the feeder hub to a number of places not really served via any other major hub. Also, MSP is a good sized metropolitan area (13th largest, or something like that), which is home to an extremely large number of major corporations. MSP is very business-centric, fairly affluent market that even without an NW hub would generate significant traffic. The only problem is, it's a 1 hour flight to ORD.

Quoting AAden (Reply 9):
I don't think that NWA will go anywhere ,but in if they do liquidate it would b a major blow to msp

NW is not going anywhere. They might get beaten up a bit yet, but their finances appear in far stronger shape than delta's, and arguably as good/better than United's at this point. If they were really that hard up for money, would they be keeping their A330 and 787 deliveries - and keeping them as scheduled. How many major US airlines are ordering widebodies right now? Between their 787 and A330 orders, they have well over 40 new widebody jets. They aren't hurting that bad. They need to cut their labor costs, and that's what they entered bankruptcy for.

Quoting MSP" class=quote target=_blank>USFlyer MSP (Reply 13):
If NW liquidates US will most likely purchase the Asia, MSP, and DTW ops

MSP + DTW are almost 1,000 flights a day. I doubt they'll buy both. It's kind of redundant. While DTW has the world gateway, it's also awfully close to the US hub at PHL. MSP would open up the midwestern market to US, as well as offer a base for all of the asian routes. Do you think US has the money to buy out NW's MSP and NRT hubs, as well as their large asian network? If (and this is a gigantic if) NW went under, I could only see CO buying out their MSP hub and asian assets.

Quoting Malexander131 (Reply 14):
msp without NW?
dead.

MSP is dead? MSP is in trouble without NW, DTW is completely screwed.

ntspelich · Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:11 am

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 25):
Quoting Af773atmsp (Reply 23):
And I would not like it if WN flew to MSP.

Then you'd better hope NW survives...WN will probably be the first to stick their foot in the door if NW shuts down.

Word on the street is that it's short-listed. Fits the pattern of TZ codeshare cities that we've gone into after testing the waters.....PIT (prior to codeshare, but similar), RSW, DEN. Yes, we got in bed with them to get the MDW hanger and put a few extra butts in our seats, but it's also a great way to get a feel for a market without spending the money to fly there.

af773atmsp · Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:15 am

Its not a question of when NW will go out of service, its a question of if NW will go out of service. Delta will probably survive. But some of the smaller airlines in the US will go down and sink. ATA, Frontier, and WN might go down but back up.

Boston92 · Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:15 am

Quoting Malexander131 (Reply 14):
msp without NW?
dead.

Sun Country will grow huge, knocking B6 and WN right out of business! boggled

flydreamliner · Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:17 am

Quoting Boston92 (Reply 44):
Sun Country will grow huge, knocking B6 and WN right out of business! boggled

Doubtful.... they'll definately grow though.

Whoever put an airline called sun country in MSP clearly had some sick sense of humor.

belizexp · Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:08 am

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 8):

WN would enter and start a decent sized operation.

I agree WN would buildup MSP

MarkATL · Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:21 am

Quoting Ntspelich (Reply 38):
Yes, we got in bed with them to get the MDW hanger and put a few extra butts in our seats, but it's also a great way to get a feel for a market without spending the money to fly there.

No way else to put it....ATA is LUVs bitch.

TWFirst · Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:28 am

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 6):
but the twin cities have done much more to encourage businesses to move to the area, such as Target,

Um, Target BEGAN in MSP and its headquarters have always been there, as have 3M, General Mills, Pillsbury (now part of General Mills). Other huge HQ include Ameriprise, USBancorp, Piper Jaffray, TCF, Carlson Companies, Cargill, St Paul/Travellers, regional HQ for WellsFargo, etc. But to your point, MSP does generate much more business traffic than STL.

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 22):
MSP without NW is like STL without TWA......

NO... big differences... STL is near major hubs, with a very crappy facility. MSP is a fabulous facility, in a larger O&D market, in a region with no other hubs.

MSPCRJ200 · Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:43 am

There are multiple "what if" arguments that can be discussed until the cows come home.
Without NWA MSP becomes a mid-market airport ripe for good low-fare carriers and a few majors. This city is dying for low fare carriers and NWA is and has been squeezing them out over the years- anyone remember Vanguard or Reno? As far as international service, I seriously doubt anyone other than KLM, BA or JAL would ever be interested in flying here. There is just no market for it. We need more North American competetion and a couple of trans-ocean options, that's it. One other thing to consider, if NW goes under it will have an obvious market impact on the entire nation. Less cooks in the kitchen = a better meal.

PanAm747 · Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:51 am

Quote:
Um, Target BEGAN in MSP and its headquarters have always been there, as have 3M, General Mills, Pillsbury (now part of General Mills). Other huge HQ include Ameriprise, USBancorp, Piper Jaffray, TCF, Carlson Companies, Cargill, St Paul/Travellers, regional HQ for WellsFargo, etc. But to your point, MSP does generate much more business traffic than STL.

I did not know that Target began in the twin cities!! I did know that there were a lot of business headquartered there, but I knew none of the names.

I think that NW likes to emphasize to Minnesota that the demand for an MSP hub is there for the business traffic.

Quote:
Right...EWR is Northeast!

Very true...but "up north" refers to places in the north central part of the U.S.

Boston92 · Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:11 am

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 46):
Very true...but "up north" refers to places in the north central part of the U.S

When I think of up north, I think of New York and the New England States.

congaboy · Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:42 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 41):
Whoever put an airline called sun country in MSP clearly had some sick sense of humor.

Not really...look at what their destinations are FROM MSP. Now if you lived in Minnesota, would you take an airline called "Ice" for your next beach vacation?

NW will take in the chops somehow, and if that is down-sizing, merger, Chap 7, whatever, the remnant is much less than what NWA was in its hayday at MSP. The O&D market for MSP is decent, but will not sustain the fortress hub activity that MSP is/was, so we see Humphrey get closed, legacies pick up some decent yield routes, and LCC's either making MSP a feature city, or at the least pumping up service. Activity overall decreases at MSP, that's for sure.

TWFirst · Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:18 am

Sun Country (SY) was started by former Braniff management (hence the orange color) in 1983 I believe, and was originally a charter carrier to warm-weather destinations, hence the name.

Who is online

Popular Searches On Airliners.net