Quoting Qazar (Reply 61): This is how much a geek I really am, I checked in the Lufthansa timetable of the summer of 1999 (yes I keep them all!) and saw it - what I had known I had seen in the past: Lufthansa was running a 3 x weekly A343 terminator nonstop flight between FRA and KUL, and it never continued to CGK. |
Check your timetables again for 1997 and 1998 and you'll see there a four times weekly
FRA-
KUL-
CGK flight. The other three
CGK services ran through
SIN. Following the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the particularly devastating impact on Indonesia,
LH reduced its
CGK flights to 3 weekly only, with the
KUL flight no longer continuing to
CGK. Later,
CGK became daily again, with all services running through
SIN, while
KUL was being axed altogether.
Quoting Qazar (Reply 61): There has been also in the past a MUC Singapour A343 service (3x weekly) - Summer 2002. |
This thrice weekly additional service started as a
FRA based service (LH788/789
FRA-
SIN-
FRA) before being transferred to
MUC as LH782/783
MUC-
SIN-
MUC. The flight was axed because of a lack of premium traffic and stiff competition from
SQ.
Again,
LH is really suffering at
SIN because of the competition of 'partner' Singapore Airlines and this competition is not to be underestimated. Here in Jakarta, plenty of
LH frequent flyers are flying LH779 to
SIN only and connect there to the
SQ-operated
FRA flight, instead of continuing their journey on the Lufthansa flight they boarded in
CGK.
Obviously,
SQ is offering a service that is vastly superior to the one offered by
LH, particularly in the premium classes, and one can notice
LH's trying to stem the flow of premium traffic to
SQ out of this region.
LH is now offering business class fares which do not allow passengers to take
SQ-operated flights with
LH flight number but force passengers to fly
LH metal.
As for the
MUC-
SIN flight, I believe that such a flight might eventually be established but it's unclear whether this flight will be operated by
LH or by
SQ.
SQ has before been rumored to start operations into
MUC.
Quoting Qazar (Reply 61): I also agree, that's why I feel it is more feasible to see the SGN route become a 3x weekly A343 terminator if LH wants to free up space on its Bangkok runs. |
Again, not even Air France can make nonstop Vietnam flights work. For the past couple of winters,
AF has been operating thrice weekly
CDG-
SGN and twice weekly
CDG-
HAN nonstop flights with A343, but this coming winter, for the first time in a couple of years the nonstop flights will not be reinstated, but
AF will instead keep the summer regimen which calls for 4
SGN and 3
HAN direct flights via
BKK.
The problem with the Vietnam market are the yields, particularly those in the premium cabins. F and C fares ex Vietnam are among the lowest in the region, and there isn't a lot of premium traffic to start with. When I was at Swissair, the twice weekly
ZRH-
BKK-
SGN flights, later replaced with a thrice weekly
ZRH-
SIN-
SGN service, were bleeding money because of the lack of premium traffic. I don't think that
LH is losing money on the
SGN service, but I don't believe that the yields are particularly rosy either, definitely not to the tune that a nonstop service would be warranted in an operational environment that is characterized by an acute scarcity of longhaul resources.
Quoting Qazar (Reply 61): So what you're saying is that MNL has the market to support a nonstop terminator flight, only if the equipment was the right one. Obviously, the B744 is not the aircraft for such a route, but the A343 is definetly a prime candidate. |
Just look at KLM for the answer to that question: the airline is operating a daily nonstop
AMS MNL service with B772ER, the airline's flagship aircraft. The service is profitable albeit not with brilliant results, but the lack of premium traffic is reflected in the C35/Y292 cabin layout, i.e. with relatively few premium seats, which are still being sold at relatively low fares, when compared, for instance with nearby
HKG.
Now, Lufthansa used to operate a 5 weekly nonstop service with a B744 with a F16/C64/Y310 layout: about the same number of Y seats as KLM but a much larger number of premium seats. I've seen numbers for a particular season when the flight carried an average of just 0.3 paying F passengers. That's a 0.3/16 revenue loadfactor in F for that particular season. I'm pretty sure that
LH has destinations where it could deploy that particular F cabin with better results.
As for the future of
MNL in the
LH network, the airline might currently be losing out to KLM to a certain extent so
LH might feel the need for a nonstop return. I doubt, however, whether the A343 would be the right aircraft for such a service. Air France's thrice weekly A343 nonstop
CDG-
MNL service was a failure because of the lack of cargo space on the A343 on this long route.
AF quickly returned its
MNL service as a tag on to its
BKK flights before axing
MNL altogether and handing over the service to KLM.
So, sure enough, a 2-class nonstop
LH service would be more appropriate than the previous 3-class service but I doubt whether
LH would have an appropriate aircraft for such a service. As I see it, the most suited in the current fleet would be the A346, for better cargo capabilities, but then again, does
LH have enough resources for such a service while there might be much better ways to deploy an A346 within the network, with better returns to the bottom line...