Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

WINGS · Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:34 pm

Looking at the current number of A380's on order + options, it's truly amazing to see how well this particular family of aircraft has done before entry into commercial service.

The market for such a plane as the A380 has been and still is regarded by many as rather limited, yet after numerous delays it's numbers are steadily growing. With many current A380 customers expected to convert it's options into firm orders,s Airbus should close 2006 with additional commitments. So far we have had Singapore Airlines signing a LOI for 9 + 6 , while it has been rumoured for some time that LH is also close to converting it's options. Conversion of current options could also trigger other airlines to also reconsider it's options.

Airbus target for each year is to attract two additional airlines to join the A380 program. The question remains as to which airlines will be the most likely candidates to fill that role in the coming years. With less than 120 days to go until 2007, it's going to be interesting to see if Airbus holding back for a big finale.

My guess as to who will jump onboard the A380 program in 2006 is China Airlines and Asiana + SAA (via ILFC)

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/

10 + 4

5

43

4

10 + 10

10

5

5 + 3

15 + 10

6

12 + 10

2

19 (9 LOI) + 9

6

10 + 10

6 + 6

TOTAL:

159 Firm
168 Firm + LOI
62 Options (including new SQ order)

WHO'S NEXT TO JOIN THE CLUB?

Passenger and Cargo.

Regards,
Wings

Qatara340 · Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:43 pm

Those planes sure do look weird! My guess is that Etihad will choose more planes, maybe QR (since they choose the least amount amongst all buyers). Maybe Cathay Pacific..

bennett123 · Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:51 pm

I do not expect any new customers until EIS.

BA787 · Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:53 pm

I hope BA and JAL go for the A380 but I doubt JAL will. I'm still holding the opinion that BA will!

Tom

Glareskin · Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:16 pm

Likely: BA, MU, CX, IB

Very unlikely: CV, JL (although it would be a good fit), AC

Possibly: CA, CI

Would be nice: KL, UA, NW

Best looking: Nippon Cargo (wow, what a beauty!)

rootsair · Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:18 pm

AMZING PICTURES.
out of the airlines that have ordered the A380, I think it looks amazing with the thai livery!
I think BA and IB are potential customers.
Dunno why BA hasn't yet ordered them

tcxdegsy · Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:32 pm

Quoting RootsAir (Reply 5):
Dunno why BA hasn't yet ordered them

BA has stated many times it will place no orders for new aircraft until it's move to T5 is over, and the Pensions Deficit issue is resolved. So don't expect anything until after March '08, according to Mr Walsh, on this basis.

It's also using this statement, and timescale, to allow Boeing and Airbus to draw up their "battle plans" to negotiate the best terms. BA are in a strong position in this respect

Alessandro · Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:46 pm

KLM perhaps,since there joint-venture with AF. The Suriname route could fill
up an A380 a few times a week.

Lumberton · Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:53 pm

South African. Lease.

OldAeroGuy · Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:24 pm

I doubt that any general cargo operator, such as Atlas or Cargolux will order the A380F.

LifelinerOne · Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:23 pm

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 9):
I doubt that any general cargo operator, such as Atlas or Cargolux will order the A380F.

Don't you count UPS or FedEx as general cargo operator/

Cheers! wave

bill142 · Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:32 pm

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 9):
such as Atlas

Atlast could. Qantas are looking at expanding their freight business, so the current set up where Qantas leases aircraft/crew from Atlas might contiune and my see demand for the A380F

sk909 · Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:38 pm

Nice photos/images...

AT502B · Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:39 pm

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 10):
Don't you count UPS or FedEx as general cargo operator/

Cheers!

UPS and Fedex are more package carriers than large freight operators, unlike Atlas etc. UPS ordered some B747F's recently to accomodate the large freight that the A380 can't get through the side doors.

scaledesigns · Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:42 pm

The plane will need to have the floor redesigned if they want to get any "real"
cargo operators to buy them.Fedex and UPS are small package operations,
not true cargo operators.Fedex does have have huge cargo contracts with the USPO(again small package only).For those who dont agree,go down to
Fedex and try to ship a container of car parts on Fedex.

leelaw · Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:52 pm

Quoting WINGS (Thread starter):
19 (9 LOI) + 9

Singapore Airlines Orders 20 Airbus A350 XWB-900s And 9 Airbus A380s
21 July 2006

...With this order, Singapore Airlines will have 19 firm orders and 6 options for the Airbus A380 and is now scheduled to take delivery of its first aircraft in December 2006.

http://www.singaporeair.com/saa/en_U...any_info/press_release/NE_3406.jsp

SLCUT2777 · Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:59 pm

Quoting SK909 (Reply 12):
Nice photos/images...

Very much agreed. I don't however see any North American Carriers in the passenger business (FedEx & UPS are definite). Not likely at all: UA, NW, AA, DL or AC.

chiad · Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:01 am

Wings ... amazingly cool post.
Loved the pics. Awesome!
Thanks!

scaledesigns · Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:01 am

Im new to a.net...I read alot of the discussions.Its kind of funny to listen to the many posts...The only thing I hate is the USA against Europe..You guys sometimes act like little kids.

In general I am a Lockheed guy.Since they are gone now its sometimes
Boeing and sometimes Airbus.

I hope to post many pictures as soon as I shrink my picture files.
I used to shoot for Aerogem back in the 1980s.

Tom

andz · Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:06 am

Quoting WINGS (Thread starter):
SAA (via ILFC)

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 8):
South African. Lease.

This is as bad as "when will NW sell their DC-9s". SAA are not in the market for 380s.

JayinKitsap · Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:20 am

I think Varig will climb aboard with an order for 10.

leelaw · Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:36 am

Quoting Andz (Reply 19):
SAA are not in the market for 380s.

...Hamilton-Manns said it would be feasible to acquire A380s if South African passengers could be persuaded to fly to or from the UK in daylight, so that the expensive plane would not waste 12 hours waiting on the tarmac...

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=&fArticleId=2396065

airbazar · Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:36 am

I think SAA and Air China are the most likely candidate. KLM, no way. AF will be the only operator of A380's in the KL/AF group. Much like LH will only base their A380's at FRA, I think it would be too costly to have A380's based at both AMS and CDG.

lightsaber · Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:53 am

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 7):
KLM perhaps,since there joint-venture with AF. The Suriname route could fill
up an A380 a few times a week.

KLM is my vote for the most likely next order. It also wouldn't suprise me to see Cathay step up and order A380's.

Ibera, Northwest, United and British airways all have a decent chance. BA will negotiate like anything. Will they order 77W's/788's? You can expect them to force Boeing and Airbus to win that order. As to NW and UA, that will depend on financing.

As to SAA... I don't know. It seems like they could fill the A380's, but would they buy enough to justify the added complexity? I honestly do not know.

Personally, I expect a bunch of "top off" orders from the initial buyers *if* they are happy with the A380 performance (which I expect them to be). This alone will keep the line going another two years. If the A388R (extended range) can be made to do SYD-LHR (doubt it, but worth the try), I would expect a large +up order from Quantas. hyper

Personally, the Indian airlines are the ones who could benifit the most from the A380 lift... If Kingfisher is a success, I expect them to order an EK number of A380's. IF... a powerfull two letter word.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 9):
I doubt that any general cargo operator, such as Atlas or Cargolux will order the A380F.

the floor loading simply isn't high enough on the A388F. Its fine for package carriers like Fedex and UPS, but Polar et al need the high floor loading and occasionally the big door. If the A380 delivers "good enough" performance, I have no doubt Fedex will buy all of their options.

Lightsaber

andz · Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:56 am

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 21):
Hamilton-Manns said it would be feasible to acquire A380s if South African passengers could be persuaded to fly to or from the UK in daylight, so that the expensive plane would not waste 12 hours waiting on the tarmac...

You quote an article from February 2005? Is that the basis for this speculation about SAA? I could go back into the archives and put the same argument forward about 777s.

rootsair · Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:13 am

Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 20):
I think Varig will climb aboard with an order for 10.

with what money ?
regards
BM

Stitch · Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:14 am

Since it appears that the A380 flight test program has addressed any lingering issues about NA-HKG service, I would not be surprised to see CX buy the plane (and it would look mighty fine in CX livery).

UA would be the only possible domestic US airline to order the plane, but only if UA's Asian expansion plans bear serious fruit. I expect NW to phase out the 744s down the road in favor of smaller planes (787-10s or A350-900s) for their heaviest-traffic routes.

I believe the chances of JL and NH buying the A380 are slim (JL) to none (NH). Same with AC.

BA's decision I think will be driven by trans-Atlantic and African traffic more then the Kangaroo Route, since QF, EK, VS, and SQ flood it with A380 seats. However, if BA decides to continue to service Australia, they will either need A380s to be able to have enough volume on the lower fares they will need to charge for SYD/MEL or they will need to buy NextGen ULR planes (787LR/A359R) to serve multiple Aussie cities directly from LHR, bypassing SYD and MEL (which could see direct F/CW/WT+ only service on such planes).

KE having A380s might force OZ's hand to get some, as well.

Still not sure MH and TG are going to actually take their planes. Same with EY.

And bulk and heavy-cargo companies are unlikely to buy the A380F unless they have to fly larger then 744F maximum payloads beyond the 744F's maximum range (which none of them seem to need to do at the moment or find the 748F meets the extra need more effectively).

AirPacific747 · Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:38 am

WOW! The A380 in JAL colours looks very good indeed!

OldAeroGuy · Sun Sep 03, 2006 2:06 am

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 10):
Don't you count UPS or FedEx as general cargo operator/

Nope. As others have said, they are package carriers, not general freight carriers. Volume is more important to them than load carrying capability

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 23):
It also wouldn't suprise me to see Cathay step up and order A380's.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
I would not be surprised to see CX buy the plane

CX needs to evaluate the 773ER in their operation before they will consider buying the A380. The 773ER was a deliberate airplane downsize. Ordering the A380 would run counter to that business decision.

I think you'll see another decade or so go by before CX considers an A380 order.

USADreamliner · Sun Sep 03, 2006 2:37 am

For sure not:

ELAL
Garuda
Philippines
United

Maybe:
Some other chinese airline, or another "deep pockets" Middle eastern airline.

usadreamliner

Neverest · Sun Sep 03, 2006 2:47 am

WINGS, you did a lot of work and must be commended.

MCIGuy · Sun Sep 03, 2006 2:48 am

I still say US pax carriers will never order the A380.

blast · Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:00 am

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 22):
I think SAA and Air China are the most likely candidate

Agree with that. I really reckon SA can use the A380 on the LHR route and it would make sense to have Airbus replace the 744 at some point, perhaps with also a few more (used??) A346-es in addition to the A380.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 23):
KLM is my vote for the most likely next order.

I really don't see it happen any time soon. Would there really be a route in KL's network where the A380 would make sense and make a profitable addition to the fleet?

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 22):
I think it would be too costly to have A380's based at both AMS and CDG.

This is probably not really an argument as both AF and KL have 747's and 777's based at both CDG and AMS as well.

ER757 · Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:05 am

CI or OZ would be my guess for next to order.
BA probably sometime down the road, but I don't see them as "next to jump on board" as the title of the thread asks.

Wings - nice work with the pictures! I think the PR livery look fantastic on the A380.

Nimish · Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:12 am

Quoting Scaledesigns (Reply 18):
Im new to a.net.

Welcome on board. I wish AI would order a few A380's and bring some muscle into the market!

SLCUT2777 · Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:13 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
UA would be the only possible domestic US airline to order the plane, but only if UA's Asian expansion plans bear serious fruit. I expect NW to phase out the 744s down the road in favor of smaller planes (787-10s or A350-900s) for their heaviest-traffic routes.

I likewise see NW phasing out all 744 equipment and I don't think it will last much longer with UA either. I think NW might go with an A350 or maybe a 773ER or if an LR variant of that frame comes along both they and UA could go for that in all likelihood. For International wide-body service I think most US/Canada carriers are going to stick with Boeing. The only reason Airbus has made inroads in North America in the narrow-body airframe is the age and commonality issue around the 737 and 757s. UA and NW both have perhaps the best Asia networks to build on of any North American carriers, and Boeing will answer their needs.

LTU932 · Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:17 am

OZ has been previously discussed and they're said to order the A380 sometime soon. GA seems unlikely, unless they're going for only a handful for Europe flights, along with the yearly Hajj service. Nippon Cargo odered the 747-8F, so here's another out, plus AC is going all Boeing and will likely buy only Airbus narrowbodies, if they do. As for UA and NW, I don't think NW will ever buy something that size, and UA is more likely to go for the 747-8I than the A380.

leelaw · Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:17 am

Quoting Andz (Reply 24):
Quoting Leelaw (Reply 21):
Hamilton-Manns said it would be feasible to acquire A380s if South African passengers could be persuaded to fly to or from the UK in daylight, so that the expensive plane would not waste 12 hours waiting on the tarmac...

You quote an article from February 2005? Is that the basis for this speculation about SAA? I could go back into the archives and put the same argument forward about 777s.

Actually, I was quoting from the article to explain why the A380 might not be practicable for SA's operation.

andz · Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:20 am

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 37):
Actually, I was quoting from the article to explain why the A380 might not be practicable for SA's operation.

Not the way I read it, but apologies if I got it wrong.

Aircellist · Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:24 am

Cool thread.

Very nice picture; good idea.

This huge tail makes most airline's colors look very nice.

lightsaber · Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:28 am

Quoting Blast (Reply 32):
I really don't see it happen any time soon. Would there really be a route in KL's network where the A380 would make sense and make a profitable addition to the fleet?

With two decks, it would be possible to do an A380 combi. Wink

With that capability... yes, I see a home for the A380 integrated with the AF service. Smile

Note: I do assume that the legal issues are worked out and AF/KLM is allowed to opperate as a single entity. When? I don't know.

Oldaeroguy: Good point on Cathay. Good thing I didn't mention a time frame. Wink

Lightsaber

Gr8Circle · Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:17 am

Quoting WINGS (Thread starter):
WHO'S NEXT TO JOIN THE CLUB?

You seem to be predicting almost every major airline going for the 380.... smile

Quoting Nimish (Reply 34):
Welcome on board. I wish AI would order a few A380's and bring some muscle into the market!

I hope not....the 748 would be better for them.....

blast · Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:46 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 40):
With two decks, it would be possible to do an A380 combi. With that capability... yes, I see a home for the A380 integrated with the AF service.

That could actually make sense for KL, like they operate a whole bunch of 744 combis now. But still I don't see it happen any time soon. KL seems to have a rather conservative approach when it comes to new types being released. They never are a launch customer.

Has there been any official news on A380 combis being designed/developed?

brilondon · Sun Sep 03, 2006 5:03 am

I don't see AC ordering any A380's due to their smaller market area (Canada). Also the T7 order and the 787 order are probably an indication that AC is not interested in any thing that large. They seem to be looking more at frequency than at capacity in their fleet goals and I can't see any market in Canada being able to support 800 passenger plane. twocents

Rheinbote · Sun Sep 03, 2006 5:52 am

Quoting WINGS (Thread starter):
Who's next to jump on-board?

The Repo-man?

[Edited 2006-09-02 23:00:08]

FCKC · Sun Sep 03, 2006 5:56 am

Probably Asiana will be the next buyer , before yearend.
China Al is rumoured to have chosen the 747-8I.
Also the Sultan of Brunei could be the first VIP buyer.Imagine an A380VIP in full Royal Brunei cs............

Stitch · Sun Sep 03, 2006 5:59 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 28):
CX needs to evaluate the 773ER in their operation before they will consider buying the A380. The 773ER was a deliberate airplane downsize. Ordering the A380 would run counter to that business decision.

I think you'll see another decade or so go by before CX considers an A380 order.

Could very well be. I hear constant good-natured carping from the LAX UA crowd about how CX keeps adding daily 747 frequencies while UA won't even put a 777 on the route, so perhaps I am thinking CX has more lift between HKG and LAX then they really do and therefore consolidation/expansion onto A380s may not be the near-term prudent choice... Smile

ebj1248650 · Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:08 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 23):
As to NW and UA, that will depend on financing.

I can see Northwest ordering the A380 but I suspect 747-800s are more likely for United. I had thought Northwest might go the A340-500/600 route but that didn't happen and I don't know that they'd seriously consider the -600 HGW version. I don't know that the -600 HGW is selling well. Can someone enlighten me on that?

Stitch · Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:12 am

Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 47):
I had thought Northwest might go the A340-500/600 route but that didn't happen and I don't know that they'd seriously consider the -600 HGW version.

Northwest would be more likely to wait for the A359R/A35G (if they want Airbus) or 772LR/773ER (if they want Boeing) then order the A345/A346 at this point.

Quote:
I don't know that the -600 HGW is selling well. Can someone enlighten me on that?

Airbus has about 20 "white tails" (formerly tasked to EK before they cancelled their order in favor of other products) they are trying to unload. QR was rumored to take them, but then they ordered (but have yet to announce) 773ERs and 772LRs...

ptugarin · Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:21 am

Please welcome me here as a new member. I just wanted to add that LY is also unlikely to order an A380 for political reasons. They have been known as an all boeing operator. Also, how about a crazy idea of US/HP starting trans-Pacific operations out of PHX on a brand new 380 fleet?

[Edited 2006-09-02 23:23:21]

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