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wjcandee
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:21 am

I may well eat these words, but I would be shocked, just shocked, to see Emirates actually be able to absorb 43 of these things into their actual operations. Frankly, I would be shocked to see them actually take delivery for use in their own operations all of the aircraft that they have on firm order over the next 7 years. That doesn't mean that they won't sell the positions or buy and then release the aircraft, but their incredibly-ambitious plans make, I think, some very aggressive assumptions about their ability to put butts in seats.

No question that I could be wrong, but, sadly, I rarely am when betting against very-optomistic business plans.
 
AvObserver
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:24 am

Quoting Gr8Circle (Reply 41):
You seem to be predicting almost every major airline going for the 380..

I agree. This is still a relatively small market niche and not that many potential customers are as yet so eager to jump on board. I agree that orders may increase after EIS; after performance can be verified but you still won't have a rush of orders; it'll be more like like a slow but steady stream at first until air traffic growth demands more. Irrespective of the A380's merits, not all that many carriers will need that sort of capacity for awhile but we can expect order rate growth a few years down the road. A smaller number of airlines will turn to the 747-8 for their more modest capacity needs though the A380 will still win the lion's share of orders. Once Airbus launches the -900 stretch, we'll see a bigger pickup in orders; I wouldn't be surprised to see a few operators convert some -800 options to the -900 variant; there seems to be a lot of interest.
 
deputydawghere
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:28 am

Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 47):
I suspect 747-800s are more likely for United.

I agree with you.
N/A
 
ptugarin
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:32 am

If EK express works out, other airlines will start considering filling the long-houl LC niche, and that's where the unlimited opportunities will open up
 
jfk777
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:36 am

Most Asian airlines have ordered that will order the A380.

Air Canada: I see little chance as they are going for the 777/787 combination
apart from Toronto-LHR or Montreal to Paris, they operate most international routes only once a day.

Iberia: I doubt it, they have found an airplane smaller then the 747 in the A346 that goes nicely with there A340-300 fleet. They serve every point nonstop from Madrid and go Double daily to some. They prefer two flights to one and don't operate to congested airports.

BA: this is I think the most interesting option. They face the competition from Virgin, Emirates, Qantas and Singapore & the congestion of LHR. On one route they fly 9 times daily, JFK( Newark is up to 3 daily). With 9 747 & 777 how many more flights do they need to JFK? If the case for any airline can be made for A380, its BA. I love 747's and BA has been a big part of the history with Boeing. With limited growth in slots at LHR bigger is the only way to go. BOS, JFK, EWR, IAD, MIA, ORD, LAX, SFO, YYZ, HKG, SYD, MEL SIN, BKK, NRT, CPT, JNB, GRU and YVR all are going to need more capacity.
 
Tom12
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:38 am

I can't see Atlas, Polar, Cargolux or BA and CX going for them

Tom
"Per noctem volamus" - Royal Air Force Bomber Squadron IX
 
EMBQA
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:55 am

Quoting WINGS (Thread starter):
Looking at the current number of A380's on order + options, it's truly amazing to see how well this particular family of aircraft has done before entry into commercial service.

Your kidding right...?? Airbus has not had a significant order placed for the A380 in nearly two years. They are still only around 33% of the way to the break even mark, and I don't see any US passenger airline ever order the A380. I don't think you'll see any new major worldwide passeneger airline add them to their fleet that doesn't already have an order placed. So, to answer your question.."who's next...?" No one in my eye. You might see additions to existing orders, but no new orders will be placed.

It's been a well done project in your words...?? Hardly..!! Cost over runs, delays, weight issues, structural issues. Typical growing pains with any new airframe, but the world has changed and customers are now far less tolerant to such issues. I my eye, if Airbus does not double their order book in the next two years they are going to be in serious issues with this program.

[Edited 2006-09-03 00:03:03]
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
Aither
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:24 am

Several airlines in India could use it. Even on the domestic operations.
Never trust the obvious
 
SA7700
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:26 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 8):
South African. Lease.



Quoting Airbazar (Reply 22):
I think SAA and Air China are the most likely candidate.



Quoting Blast (Reply 32):
Agree with that. I really reckon SA can use the A380

If you consider the current financial situation at SA, profits plunged with 90% during the last fiscal year, IMO an SA A380 deal will not be closed during the foreseeable future.



Quote:
Falling yields, low-cost competition and soaring fuel costs had a devastating effect on South African Airways' bottom line during the fiscal year ended March 31 as profits plunged 90% to ZAR65 million ($9.1 million) from ZAR648 million, the carrier said yesterday, according to press reports.SAA released certain year-end performance indicators on its Web site, but did not include final profit figures. It did say that passenger revenue rose 0.8% to ZAR13 billion against a 3.5% decline in yield as it lost market share to low-fare carriers.



http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=5620


Rgds

SA7700
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:36 am

Quoting AvObserver (Reply 51):
Once Airbus launches the -900 stretch, we'll see a bigger pickup in orders; I wouldn't be surprised to see a few operators convert some -800 options to the -900 variant; there seems to be a lot of interest.

If the A388 is too large to be attractive, why do you think the A389 will be a better choice?
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
dazeflight
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:41 am

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 56):
No one in my eye. You might see additions to existing orders, but no new orders will be placed.

Can we quote you on that in say, 2 years?
 
AvObserver
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:48 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 59):
If the A388 is too large to be attractive, why do you think the A389 will be a better choice?

You are right about the carriers that already consider the A388 too large for their needs but for some of those who've already ordered it, most notably Emirates, the potentially more efficient -900 will be preferred on some routes where it can be filled. On saying there was a lot of interest in it, I was merely refering to an FI article from a few months back where I recall Tim Clark saying EK would order the A389 NOW if it were on offer. It's certain the market for that version will be more limited than for the -800 model but the talk seemed to suggest there was still a significant market for the stretch.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 8:12 am

Quoting Aither (Reply 57):
Several airlines in India could use it. Even on the domestic operations.

When it comes to Indian and Chinese domestic, I still think the 787-3 is going to be a viable player. An A388D (assuming Airbus even bothers) will just haul around so much extra structure it's going to hurt CASM even at 850 pax. Same as the 744D was replaced by the 773A and then the 773A will be replaced by the 787-3 because each plane's CASM was better then the model it replaced thanks to being more structurally efficient.

And if Airbus doesn't make an A388D, flying an A388 will be even worse since it's not designed for short-haul, high-cycle use. Plus a good portion of India's domestic airport infrastructure is nowhere near ready to handle a plane of that size.
 
thebry
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 8:14 am

Does Airbus really have a goal of adding two "new" A380 customers per year? If so, when's the last time they picked up a new customer? Surely it can't be two years ago, can it? Seems strange for such a highly anticipated plane. Anyone know for sure?
 
lehpron
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 8:37 am

Everyone who is saying XX is gonna get a few or whatever, could you please say why/how you think so? I could say DL but then I'd be wrong as I don't know a darn thing about their forecasted trends and/or traffic patterns.
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
ma66
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:10 am

Quoting WINGS (Thread starter):
when's the last time they picked up a new customer?

Last year they got 3 new customers. UPS (10) which have been interested in the aircraft since before launch, Southern China Airlines (5) and Kingfisher (5).
In 2004 they got 2 new customers. Etihad(4) and Thai(6).

But the number of non-launch customers is very limited, and their orders are small (except UPS).

Quoting WINGS (Thread starter):
The market for such a plane as the A380 has been and still is regarded by many as rather limited
 
manni
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:50 am

Quoting Gr8Circle (Reply 41):
You seem to be predicting almost every major airline going for the 380...

Looks more like he's pointing out potential candidates. An artist impression of a A380 in Easyjet, Air Asia or Southwest colors wouldn't make sense here.

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 56):

Your kidding right...?? Airbus has not had a significant order placed for the A380 in nearly two years. They are still only around 33% of the way to the break even mark, and I don't see any US passenger airline ever order the A380.

If we go back two years in time we can add Thai, UPS, China Southern, Kingfisher and last but not least a follow up order from SQ to the list (obviously the SQ order being placed 5 weeks ago is still pending).

I dont know when an order is significant to you, but looking further down your post you mention US airlines. One does not need orders from US airlines to be succesfull. Note that no US airline ever ordered the 773 and apart from AC and AF/KL all 773 orders have been placed by Asian carriers.

BTW, The claim that Airbus is only 33% on the way to break even, seems extremely inaccurate. But just for completion, how exactely did you reach that number?

Getting back to the question of the topic.

How about Hainan? They were once mentioned as being interested in the A380. Other than that, OZ is a near certainty, considered they ruled out the 748i. How about the other Korean carrier, KE? I remember someone on here quoting Air and Cosmos I think it was, that KE would soon convert options into orders aswell, possibly freighters.
 
art
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 11:19 am

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 56):
I my eye, if Airbus does not double their order book in the next two years they are going to be in serious issues with this program.

I don't agree with your comment but am open to correction.

Doubling the order book in the next two years (to 336) would give Airbus roughly enough orders to go past breakeven IF they could produce them fast enough. Not so much a case of avoiding serious issues, more a case of achieving a great success.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 59):
If the A388 is too large to be attractive, why do you think the A389 will be a better choice?

I think that at some point ($80/$90/$100 per barrel?) the price of fuel will result in the consolidation of many long haul flights into larger aircraft with the lowest fuel burn per ASM. Particularly when departure times are constricted by arrival times. For example, if you need to take off between 1800 and 1930, who cares whether there are 4 flights at 1800, 1830, 1900, 1930 or 2 flights at 1800 and 1900?
 
dallasnewark
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 11:26 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 66):

I think it's well below 33%. Didn't Airbust said they needed to sell 250-300 planes to break even? And that was last year. Unless they got a lot of interest free loans, the number of frames needed for the breakeven point should keep increasing with time.

A380 is good looking plane, but it is just a statement of prestige from an Airbus, not a money maker. And it probably never be a money maker.

There are other things in the world that are amazingly looking, but are only there to show the company's might, not to make profit.

Do you honestly think that Daimler is making any profit on a DODGE VIPER GTS? Extremely unlikely if you factor in all of the developmental costs. What about Ford and the GT90 and SHELBY GT 500 models. The answer is obviously not.
B732/3/4/5/6/7/8/9, B742/4, B752/3,B762/3/4, B772/3, A306, A318/9/20/21, A332/3, A343/6, MD80/83/88, L1011, TU104/134, F
 
dallasnewark
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 11:36 am

Quoting Art (Reply 67):
I think that at some point ($80/$90/$100 per barrel?) the price of fuel will result in the consolidation of many long haul flights into larger aircraft with the lowest fuel burn per ASM. Particularly when departure times are constricted by arrival times. For example, if you need to take off between 1800 and 1930, who cares whether there are 4 flights at 1800, 1830, 1900, 1930 or 2 flights at 1800 and 1900?

That's just a wishful thinking, oil will not go up that high. Don't forget any economic recession will send the oil prices plunging into the $20 per barrel range.

Business travelers foot the bill and they would rather have 4 departures rather than 2, they can vote with their wallets and switch to a different airline
B732/3/4/5/6/7/8/9, B742/4, B752/3,B762/3/4, B772/3, A306, A318/9/20/21, A332/3, A343/6, MD80/83/88, L1011, TU104/134, F
 
redflyer
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 11:59 am

Quoting Art (Reply 67):
I don't agree with your comment but am open to correction.

Doubling the order book in the next two years (to 336)

Airbus has booked the following A380 orders:

2001: 85
2002: 10
2003: 34
2004: 10
2005: 20
2006: 9

Do you see a pattern here? I doubt they're going to "double" the order book in the next two years. Not counting 2001, which garnered 85 orders and could be attributed to pent-up demand for a few niche markets, they have booked an average of 17 orders per year for the past five years.

They've got a long road ahead of them.
A government big enough to take away a constitutionally guaranteed right is a government big enough to take away any guaranteed right. A government big enough to give you everything you need is a government big enough to take away everything you have.
 
andrewuber
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:07 pm

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 31):
I still say US pax carriers will never order the A380.

I agree. While it would be cool to see pax boarding A380's at UAL, NW and other legacy carrier's gates, I too doubt we'll ever see it.

Drew
I'd rather shoot BAD_MOTIVE
 
art
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:15 pm

Quoting Dallasnewark (Reply 69):
Business travelers foot the bill and they would rather have 4 departures rather than 2, they can vote with their wallets and switch to a different airline

If I ran an airline (armchair CEO bit rearing its head here) I think I might take the risk of reducing my frequencies and losing some of my premium pax if I knew I would lose money by continuing to offer same frequencies.

Quoting Dallasnewark (Reply 69):
That's just a wishful thinking, oil will not go up that high. Don't forget any economic recession will send the oil prices plunging into the $20 per barrel range.

Oil won't rise to $80 or $90 per barrel? Your view, but not mine. Oil dropping two thirds in price due to economic recession? Unlikely in my view. Any economic recession is unlikely to halt the growth in demand from China where there is a rapidly growing domestic demand for manufactured goods. Can't remember the source but IIRC car ownership is expected to increase by 100+ million in the coming years, for example.

As for the next A380 customer, isn't Cathay due to make a decision between 748-I and A380 in the next 6 months?
 
jumbojet
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:43 pm

Im sure its not going to be a lot of airlines that want to jump on board. The plane seems overkill and time will tell. Plus, its an ugly looking plane.
 
manni
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:59 pm

Quoting Dallasnewark (Reply 68):
I think it's well below 33%. Didn't Airbust said they needed to sell 250-300 planes to break even?

A year ago Airbus had 159 orders and needed 250 to 300 to break even. So they had already booked 55% to 65% of the orders needed to break even.

With an additional 9 orders so far (I know they're pending, but we're talking about SQ here who already has commited to the A380), I dont see how Airbus now need atleast 500 orders to break even. Do you honestly believe that as a result of the delays Airbus is experiencing with the A380, they 'll need to sell twice as much planes in order to break even? I'm gobsmacked.  eyepopping 

Quoting Dallasnewark (Reply 68):
Do you honestly think that Daimler is making any profit on a DODGE VIPER GTS? Extremely unlikely if you factor in all of the developmental costs. What about Ford and the GT90 and SHELBY GT 500 models. The answer is obviously not.

Sorry, I've never heard of these cars before.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 70):
Airbus has booked the following A380 orders:

2001: 85
2002: 10
2003: 34
2004: 10
2005: 20
2006: 9

Do you see a pattern here?

Not to shabby considering the price of the aircraft and the fact that the first commercial flight hasn't taken of yet, besides, this picture isn't complete untill the end of 2006.
 
Aircellist
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:19 pm

Quoting Dallasnewark (Reply 69):
That's just a wishful thinking, oil will not go up that high. Don't forget any economic recession will send the oil prices plunging into the $20 per barrel range.

Like Art, I, too, doubt we will ever see again such a price range for oil, even in the darkest recession. Also, any movement against Iran would probably send the barrel price quite a bit over 100$.
"When I find out I was wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?" -attributed to John Maynard Keynes
 
aeroplan73
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:26 pm

I sure like the look of the A380 in Air Canada colours.  Big grin

Alas, I don't think it will ever happen.  Sad
I remember, the choices were chicken or fish. I had the lasagna.
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 2:28 pm

Quoting Art (Reply 67):
Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 59):
If the A388 is too large to be attractive, why do you think the A389 will be a better choice?

I think that at some point ($80/$90/$100 per barrel?) the price of fuel will result in the consolidation of many long haul flights into larger aircraft with the lowest fuel burn per ASM.

But the A388 will need to demonstrate a reasonable demand before the A389 is launched. If you can't sell a 550 seat airplane, why do you think a 650+ seat airplane will be required by the airlines? If only Emirates wants it, do you thinK that Airbus would take the risk. Your earlier argument was that the A380 series would not begin to sell until the A389 was launched.

Quoting Art (Reply 72):
As for the next A380 customer, isn't Cathay due to make a decision between 748-I and A380 in the next 6 months?

Do you have a source for this CX decision point?
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
JayinKitsap
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:41 pm

Quoting RootsAir (Reply 25):
Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 20):
I think Varig will climb aboard with an order for 10.

with what money ?
regards
BM

I was being a bit sarcastic. So many of the carriers that are noted here are: a) in dire financial straights (heading for, in, or just getting out of bk); b) Moving from big planes to smaller, more efficient planes; or c) have relatively new fleets. For airlines with one or more of the above, it does not seem practical or profitable to suddenly jump into the 380, in particular if the fleet is small and the airline doesn't want to invest in new hangers, maint facilities, the training etc.

As I recall, the list price of a 380 is $ 300M US. However, all of the launch customers paid a significant amount less than that (list was much lower originally and there are reports of significant discounts) so a new airline will be competing on a 380 route with someone that paid possibly $ 70 million less. That is a cost difference per seat of $30 to $50 each flight. If the airline tries to make the same profit, how easy is it to fill that many seats while charging $ 50 more per seat.

Most city pairs suitable for the 380 typically have a lot of competition. If a pair has 5 747 flights a day by all carriers, one change to a 380 increases the total capacity by 5 percent. If demand was in balance to begin the added supply might mean 5% more empty seats or reduced fares to fill the seats. Eventually, route growth would correct that.

A similar issue is the finite number of Business and First passengers on a route, by adding 50% more on that category doesn't mean added full fare passengers will suddenly appear. Probably the added high fare pax need to be coaxed from the competition.

I personally don't expect many new airlines to sign up until some real data is known, the actual pax acceptance, actual CASM, maintenance history, and general route economics. Probably some 20 or 30 planes will need to be flying for over a year for the market to properly asses the cost/benefit of the plane.

What I do expect, in particular if the options have great prices and finite terms, is the exercising of options. Most options come at prices very comparable to the ordered planes. SQ, EK, LH, AF etc once they have first hand experience are the best likelyhood to add on. I think that something like 50 options will be exercised in the near term.

If the market likes the 380, it could do well. That would probably allow the launch of the 389. If the market is lukewarm, it will be pretty slow to breakeven. I think also the production rate of the 380 will be very important. Is the current backlog 4 years of production or 6. If there are 10 out by 07, then 30 per year after new customers will be waiting 5 or 6 years. That kind of time with a slow order rate means there is high risk ordering now, with little added delay with waiting a few years.

Regards,
Jay
 
leelaw
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:47 pm

Quoting Thebry (Reply 63):
Does Airbus really have a goal of adding two "new" A380 customers per year? If so, when's the last time they picked up a new customer? Surely it can't be two years ago, can it? Seems strange for such a highly anticipated plane. Anyone know for sure?

FWIW, from Flight International's post Farnborough wrap-up/summary August 6, 2002:

...Airbus chief commercial officer John Leahy is confident the A380's orderbook will grow beyond the current 97 firm orders from nine customers, by "one customer a year" through to the first delivery in 2006...

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...22/After+the+show+-+Forecasts.html

In a January 2003 Flight International reporting on A380 sales targets in China:

..."Sales are way ahead of where we wanted to be at this stage of the programme," says Airbus vice-president customer affairs John Leahy. Reiterating an earlier forecast that he expects to add one A380 customer a year...

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...ina+is+next+A380+sales+target.html
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
FCKC
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 5:50 pm

Iberia is still studying it.
Do not see Atlas Air -Polar order it , since they are on the verge to place a 747-8F order.
Probably if the first CEO of Atlas Air was still on this earth , they already have ordered the A380F , as this Pakistani man was very impressed with it.
Right , as Manni quoted above KE is rumoured to exercise options and order A380F as well.
Philippines is also interested in the PAX version.
 
dazeflight
Posts: 513
Joined: Tue Jun 22, 1999 1:32 am

RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:36 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 70):

Airbus has booked the following A380 orders:

2001: 85
2002: 10
2003: 34
2004: 10
2005: 20
2006: 9

Do you see a pattern here? I doubt they're going to "double" the order book in the next two years. Not counting 2001, which garnered 85 orders and could be attributed to pent-up demand for a few niche markets, they have booked an average of 17 orders per year for the past five years.

They've got a long road ahead of them.

Did you ever thought about the possibility that the potential customers are waiting for EIS and operating data from the first 6 or 12 months before deciding to order?

I can't wait how you "the whalejet is too large for the upcoming market fragmentation" guys, who've been playing the "the whalejet can't fly" record just 2 years ago, are going to explain yourselves in 12 months.

I guess quite a few people are saving your quotes for later use.

ciao
Daniel
 
LifelinerOne
Posts: 1624
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:50 pm

Quoting Blast (Reply 42):
Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 40):
With two decks, it would be possible to do an A380 combi. With that capability... yes, I see a home for the A380 integrated with the AF service.

That could actually make sense for KL, like they operate a whole bunch of 744 combis now. But still I don't see it happen any time soon. KL seems to have a rather conservative approach when it comes to new types being released. They never are a launch customer.

Has there been any official news on A380 combis being designed/developed?

Well, if I recall correctly, combi's aren't allowed anymore by FAA rules. However, if I remember right, this rule only applies to be not allowed anymore to fly passengers and cargo on the same deck. When using the seperate decks of the A380 there could be a possibility that this rule doesn't apply.

AF-KLM however isn't going to become a single operator for the next 10 years or so according to both CEO's Van Wijk and Spinetta. So, AF transfering an A380 to KLM would be highly unlikely.

KLM ordering the A380 would also be very unlikely. CEO Van Wijk had said in public that such an order wouldn't make any sense. Yes, they have a few routes where they could put the WhaleJet in good use, but to do so they would need to order a small fleet of max 5 A380's. Van Wijk said that such a small number of planes wasn't worth it of introducing in the KLM fleetstructure. There would be to much things involved to justify the cost.

As for my thoughts on new A380 customers, look out for Asiana and Cathay. BA is still a possibility, but as stated earlier in this thread first need to sort out a few things like the pensions and the move to T5. Maybe after that and after seeing the first operational results from airlines like Singapore and Emirates, they might go ahead. I'm not counting out the B747-8i as well, I think this one can still go both ways.

Cheers!  wave 
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
leelaw
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:25 pm

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 82):
Well, if I recall correctly, combi's aren't allowed anymore by FAA rules. However, if I remember right, this rule only applies to be not allowed anymore to fly passengers and cargo on the same deck. When using the seperate decks of the A380 there could be a possibility that this rule doesn't apply.

AF-KLM however isn't going to become a single operator for the next 10 years or so according to both CEO's Van Wijk and Spinetta. So, AF transfering an A380 to KLM would be highly unlikely.

Another thought, my anecdotal observations of KL ORD/AMS 744M flights is that bulk, rather than package freight is usually loaded into main deck cargo hold.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
art
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:46 pm

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 77):
Your earlier argument was that the A380 series would not begin to sell until the A389 was launched.

Not quite. The A388 by design was relatively heavy per passenger seat. missing the design weight has exacerbated the situation. The "unshrunk" A389 would be a more efficient aircraft, its fuel burn per passenger km being better. If launched with the Trent XWB (or similar), I presume that fuel burn per passenger km would be substantially better than that of the current A388.

I expect the price of crude to continue to rise due to growing demand. Down the line (no idea when) I can also see tax being added to aviation fuel for environmental reasons.

I expect high international passenger number growth ex-Asia with an emerging middle class tourism element seeking the lowest possible ticket prices. I also expect consolidation on trunk routes where a) the departure time is limited by geography b) slot constraints apply c) more generally if the price of oil rises enough.

Just a few reasons why I favour the prospects of the most fuel efficient aircraft in the years to come and I think the most fuel efficient aircraft for the foreseeable future (pre-Y3) will be the A380-900.
 
Rj111
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:51 pm

Highly unlikely that anyone will order before EIS as this means taking an unnecessary risk. Once the plane is in service many other airlines will take a closer look into how it A) performs and B) How it's used by airlines and how easy it is to fill. That "niche" market that people are labelling it at the minute could well turn into an attractive option, especially as traffic grows (cue someone squealing fragmentation and increased frequencies).

Once the aircraft flies many samller airlines who can't afford to take the risk at the moment may give it a go.
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:28 pm

Quoting Art (Reply 84):
Just a few reasons why I favour the prospects of the most fuel efficient aircraft in the years to come and I think the most fuel efficient aircraft for the foreseeable future (pre-Y3) will be the A380-900.

The A389 will only be fuel efficient if it is full. It remains to be seen what markets will support the load factors required for the A389.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:47 pm

Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 78):
(Pretty much the entire post)

 checkmark 

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 86):
The A389 will only be fuel efficient if it is full. It remains to be seen what markets will support the load factors required for the A389.

Also, if oil does rise even more precipitously, that will require fares to rise, as well, at least in the short term. That will depress overall traffic patterns and may mean some A388 flights will start to fly more and more emptier. The A388 may have the "best CASM", but I imagine that is calculated when full at around 500 pax. If you're only flying around 300 pax, I imagine a 777 or A340 will make more money, even with it's higher CASM, since it will be full.

Of course, if traffic does contract, so will frequencies and, as many A380 advocates have postulated, two former flights may very well start to be combined onto one new flight, and that flight will be serviced by an A380 since it alone has the capacity to allow such a contraction.
 
EMBQA
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 11:24 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 66):
BTW, The claim that Airbus is only 33% on the way to break even, seems extremely inaccurate. But just for completion, how exactely did you reach that number?

The current break even number are now closer to 400-450 with the new round of delays and cost over runs. Even at the start of the program aviation expert thought 300 sounded very low....as did I
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
redflyer
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 11:24 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 74):
Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 70):
Airbus has booked the following A380 orders:

2001: 85
2002: 10
2003: 34
2004: 10
2005: 20
2006: 9

Do you see a pattern here?

Not to shabby considering the price of the aircraft and the fact that the first commercial flight hasn't taken of yet,

The A380 program was formally launched in June, 2000. Not sure about you, but 168 orders over seven years seems a little on the thin side.

Quoting Dazeflight (Reply 81):
Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 70):

Airbus has booked the following A380 orders:

2001: 85
2002: 10
2003: 34
2004: 10
2005: 20
2006: 9

Do you see a pattern here? I doubt they're going to "double" the order book in the next two years. Not counting 2001, which garnered 85 orders and could be attributed to pent-up demand for a few niche markets, they have booked an average of 17 orders per year for the past five years.

They've got a long road ahead of them.

Did you ever thought about the possibility that the potential customers are waiting for EIS and operating data from the first 6 or 12 months before deciding to order?

I have thought about that possibility. But while the A380 may garner some additional orders after EIS, we're only talking a handful here-and-there. I don't think it will receive, at most, more than a dozen orders in any one year.
A government big enough to take away a constitutionally guaranteed right is a government big enough to take away any guaranteed right. A government big enough to give you everything you need is a government big enough to take away everything you have.
 
manni
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 1:21 am

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 88):

The current break even number are now closer to 400-450 with the new round of delays and cost over runs.

 arrow 

Can these numbers be confirmed by reliable sources, or only be found in reports from sceptici?

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 88):
Even at the start of the program aviation expert thought 300 sounded very low....as did I

That's irrelevant. Many claimed the A380 would never take off.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 89):

The A380 program was formally launched in June, 2000. Not sure about you, but 168 orders over seven years seems a little on the thin side.

Considering the downturn in aviation most of these 7 years experienced following the events in NY and other places, and considering that the first commercial flight still has to take place, 168 orders (9 pending from SQ) is not to shabby.
 
art
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 1:29 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 89):
I don't think it will receive, at most, more than a dozen orders in any one year.

You don't think that any of the world's major 747 users will order the A380 when the time comes to replace 747's? Nor that China/India will order a reasonable size batch in the future? Nor BA/LH/any others?
 
billreid
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 1:31 am

The real question is who will jump off this albatross?
Some people don't get it. Business is about making MONEY!
 
manni
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 1:36 am

Quoting BillReid (Reply 92):
The real question is who will jump off this albatross?

Before SQ shut up the skeptici with ordering an extra batch of A380's, SQ was high on the list.  Wink

Or are you talking base jumpers here...  confused 
 
art
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 1:55 am

Quoting BillReid (Reply 92):
The real question is who will jump off this albatross?

I think nobody. A lot of airlines are being paid extra to stay with the albatross. Not because it does not work - if that were the case, they could all walk away, but because the plane they want is late and that will cost them money.
 
EMBQA
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:12 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 90):
Can these numbers be confirmed by reliable sources

No, because Airbus is very closed liped about the true break even number. They have never issued an official number and with that, the same holds true with your lower number. It's just a guessl. I would bet on the higher number with the current state of the program.... overweight issues, program delays, structural issues.. payments to airlines for these delays. The break even number can only go one way...UP.

I've always found it funny that the A380 supports almost take on a little kid attitude when challenged about the state of the program. "It is so and I'll hold my breath until you say it is so"...!! If you state your opinion in the negitive you get jumped on and told how wrong you are.. but challenge the current issues with facts or common sense economics and logic and they turn the table.

[Edited 2006-09-03 19:44:25]
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
Rj111
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:20 am

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 88):
Even at the start of the program aviation expert thought 300 sounded very low....as did I

Expected break even was never 300 from the start, try 250.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:34 am

Great job with the photo Wings... Smile


I think many here are confusing if the technologial merits versus the commercial merits of the A380...

I don't think (well at least I hope) that no one here believes that the A380 isn't a technological marvel..because it certainly is.....even Boeing has tipped their hats off...

That being said, like many in the 60's were probably being bashed for stating that the Concorde would be a commercial failure, a few of us here are being  flamed  for stating that there is a very good chance that the A380 will not be successful commercially..

As a $14billion dollar investment, if I was an Airbus investor, I would have preferred to see Airbus invest somewhere else....

The 400-500 frames for breakeven is correct...even Airbus admitted that 350 is going to be the new mininum..and that is before the latest imbroglio (thanks Leelaw for that term)..not to mention, there have been numerous reports/comments regarding this 400-500 number....(as well as my crude calculations)

The stock price of each company reflects which company has made the better decision...

Regarding any new A380 carriers.....

Quoting WINGS (Thread starter):
My guess as to who will jump onboard the A380 program in 2006 is China Airlines and Asiana + SAA (via ILFC)

I'll go with Asiana and SAA (via ILFC), or possibly QF and/or LH exercising their options..


BA, as many have said won't order it for quite some time...and if they do, they have already stated it wouldn't be more than a dozen or so.....

CX-until we see how SQ performs on SQ2/S1 (HKG-SFO-HKG), they will hold up on their order....some say that SQ still will not be able to run SQ 1/2 as efficiently as they would like to with the A380.....also, CX just purchased a lot of 777-300ERs, with a lot more options...so I don't think they will be ordering anything anytime soon....

cheers..
"Up the Irons!"
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:48 am

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 95):
No, because Airbus is very closed liped about the true break even number.

Has any manufacturer ever quoted an exact break-even sales number for a plane?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
ordryan28
Posts: 963
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:24 am

RE: Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:27 am

this is a very interesting topic. I would assume PK would be a valiant customer for the A390, although I don't see that happenning anytime soon with their struggles regarding Houston...

Airbus has quoted that they will sell about 700 frames when it's all said and done... kinda astonaumical, eh?  confused 

-Ryan
Whoever said winning is not everything never fought cancer.

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