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coiah756ca
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How Long Will The A380 Last?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 12:50 pm

I was reading Aviation Week the other day and there was a bit about how long the A380 will last in the industry. Some experts said about 15-20 years and stated facts about the wiring. The A380's aluminum wiring was the main concern of the small article.

I think the A380 will last for about 20 years in airline service and about 30 in cargo service.

What do you think?
Long live Denver-STAPLETON. RIP the old and best KDEN
 
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Stitch
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 12:53 pm

Sounds like good minimums to me.
 
Ken777
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 12:53 pm

The first question is when will it start? (EIS that is)

I think a 15 year life would be a serious problem for the airlines and therefore Airbus. Just don't see that happening.
 
coiah756ca
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 12:56 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):

Yes.. I understand the a/c has potential. The numbers I stated are pretty much minimums.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 2):
The first question is when will it start?

Definitely!! I wanna fly on one so bad.. I plan to do SIN-SYD when it starts.
Long live Denver-STAPLETON. RIP the old and best KDEN
 
futurecaptain
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 1:01 pm

It'll probably be around just as long as any other airliner. 20-30 years.

If it turns out to be a big money maker and doesn't have any major operational problems, other than wiring, maybe an extra few years.

But seriously, by 2030 the market for air travel will probably be so segmented it'll be time for the A380 to retire from pax use and stick to cargo.

With all the development going into efficiency I could see a low cost long haul airline emerging in the next 15 years and being a big hit.
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jamesjimlb
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 12:29 pm

maby about 10-15 years, this jet is deffenitly going to cost the airlines much more, especialy in fueling cost and because of that i don't think this plane will last long.
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jetjack74
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 1:02 pm

Quoting COIAH756CA (Thread starter):
What do you think?

I give the A380 no more than 15 years before all or most are converted to freighters. When these things were first launched, it was a novelty to offer these things as flying palaces while saying they were essential to accomodate services to slot-restricted airports. EK ordering 45 of these things plus the exorbanent amount of freighters to accomodate this dream of a mid east superhub in Dubai, but i'm not so sure this dream can achieved with A380's delivering this boom. I don't think EK will take 15 of these things.
Made from jets!
 
zvezda
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 1:07 pm

I think they'll all be parked in the dessert by 2025 at the latest -- maybe by 2020.
 
NZ8800
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 8:30 pm

It will be very interesting if we could look back on these predictions in a few years time. I've been wondering for a long time - this is such a... demanding aeroplane in some ways. Melbourne has had to add something like 53000m2 of runway to accommodate it (ie. widening it to 60m); and Auckland is operating on some kind of provisional agreement at present (ie widen runway shoulders and move the lights further out!). All for one type of aeroplane that our national carrier is not even considering buying, and that we are completely dependent on the whims of foreign carriers as to whether it will ever strike NZ's shores! And it is SO BIG. The trend seems to be smaller planes with fewer engines (!), more frequently. The A380 seems to be trying to recreate the mass travel of the past in a MkII kind of style. I don't think it will really be a mass seller, it will suit a limited number of airlines on a limited number of routes. So - I will watch with interest!  Smile
MDZWTA ~ Mobile Disaster Zone When Travelling Abroad
 
antiuser
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 8:57 pm

Quoting JamesJimlb (Reply 5):
this jet is deffenitly going to cost the airlines much more, especialy in fueling cost

Compared to what? Right now it is more efficient than all other large aircraft. Plus, new engines can be developed for future variants of the A380 - just look at how the 747 has evolved since the 747-100 rolled out. Unless a MAJOR break is made in engine/fuel development, the A380 will still be competitive.
Azzurri Campioni del Mondo!
 
ShowerOfSparks
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 9:08 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):
I think they'll all be parked in the dessert by 2025 at the latest -- maybe by 2020.

Is the desert capable of handling the A380 or will it require modifications before the A380 goes there?  Smile
 
chiad
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 10:45 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):
I think they'll all be parked in the dessert by 2025 at the latest -- maybe by 2020.

*speechless*
Why are you guys not thrilled about such an new exciting aircraft?
What is it about you hoping to see such a wonder fail? I know that you speak about what you want so see, not really what you beleive.
You and this provoking Whalejet nickname. Yuck!
I just find it very odd and a little sad, being an aviation enthusiast and wanting to see new technology entering the market.
 
JakTrax
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 10:48 pm

...and as usual, most (and I do say MOST, not ALL) of the folks here giving the A380 a hard time have a US flag next to their IDs........

What is it about this trend?

K
 
zvezda
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 10:52 pm

Quoting Chiad (Reply 11):
I know that you speak about what you want so see, not really what you beleive.

You are absolutely dead wrong on that. I'm writing about what I expect, not what I want. I'm looking forward to flying on the WhaleJet. I just don't expect to get many opportunities.
 
FlySSC
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:24 am

Quoting Chiad (Reply 11):
Why are you guys not thrilled about such an new exciting aircraft?

Because it's an A380, and not a B380 ...

Quoting COIAH756CA (Thread starter):
Some experts said about 15-20 years



Quoting COIAH756CA (Thread starter):
I think the A380 will last for about 20 years

Some so called experts say 15-20. What makes you say "20" ? why not 15 ... or 25 ?
Who can really say with no doubt what the Air Transport will look like in 20 years and what will be the career of the A380 by this time ?


I am sure the same "experts" would predict a 50 years long life to the faaaaaaaaaaaaaabulous B787 ... though none of them including the prototype has not been built yet ...
 sarcastic 
 
futurecaptain
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:50 am

Quoting Antiuser (Reply 9):
Unless a MAJOR break is made in engine/fuel development,

We are a little overdue for one now arn't we?

Quoting ShowerOfSparks (Reply 10):
Is the desert capable of handling the A380 or will it require modifications before the A380 goes there?

The sand dunes will have to be widened and the desert floor strengthened.

Quoting Chiad (Reply 11):
Why are you guys not thrilled about such an new exciting aircraft?

Just being realistic. The trend lately is towards efficient twinjets and frequency on major routes. Not huge a/c as evidenced by sales of about 170 a/c and no new sales for some time.

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 12):
What is it about this trend?

Our government isn't as heavily tied to the program financially so we have a more objective view. It goes both ways depending on what is being discussed.
AirSO. ASpaceO. ASOnline. ASO.com ASO. ASO. ASO. ASO. ASO.
 
futurecaptain
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:54 am

edit, duplicate post

[Edited 2006-09-24 18:03:25]
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ordryan28
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:59 am

Quoting ShowerOfSparks (Reply 10):

Is the desert capable of handling the A380 or will it require modifications before the A380 goes there?

hmmm...never thoght of that, really planning ahead, huh?

Quoting Futurecaptain (Reply 15):

The sand dunes will have to be widened and the desert floor strengthened

most likely...
Whoever said winning is not everything never fought cancer.
 
coiah756ca
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 1:46 am

Quoting FlySSC (Reply 14):
Some so called experts say 15-20. What makes you say "20" ? why not 15 ... or 25 ?
Who can really say with no doubt what the Air Transport will look like in 20 years and what will be the career of the A380 by this time ?

That is just what I think. I think that the aircraft is a bit of a dream. It may work, but not for a long time.

I read a magazine. I don't know who the experts are. I don't care what they had to say. I'm just telling you guys what the article said.

I am saying these predictions with doubt. I am predicting. Last time I checked, a predicition doesn't have to be researched.. It doesn't have to be right at all..

Ok.. So calm down. I just asked what people thought. No need for attacks.

ohhh and BTW. Prediction: The 787 will outlast the A380 by at least 10 years. Boeing=better. I fly for an airline with an all Boeing fleet. I could not ask for anything more.  Wink Thanks
Long live Denver-STAPLETON. RIP the old and best KDEN
 
ShowerOfSparks
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 1:58 am

Quoting Chiad (Reply 11):
*speechless*
Why are you guys not thrilled about such an new exciting aircraft?
What is it about you hoping to see such a wonder fail? I know that you speak about what you want so see, not really what you beleive.
You and this provoking Whalejet nickname. Yuck!
I just find it very odd and a little sad, being an aviation enthusiast and wanting to see new technology entering the market.

So, what exactly is there to be so excited about?
It's a four engine swept wing jet, just like a 707/DC-8/Convair 880 from the 50's and 60's.
Ok it's bigger, but so is a 747 that first flew in the 60's, A380 is not much bigger than that.
It has two levels, so does the 747 and Boeing 377 Stratocruiser.
It carries lots of passengers, yep but not as many as a 747 has in an emergency (1000+).
It has fly by wire, pretty common stuff since the A320 and 777.
It's got bigger engines, they've been getting bigger ever since jets were invented. Nothing new there.

OK there might be some new materials used in it's construction, but you and I aren't going to feel any warm comforting glow from them. Basically it's just a bigger cattle wagon. The average passenger who only travels coach class is going to be crammed into that same 17-18 inch wide seat set at a 31-32 inch pitch used by the airlines on every other aircraft they operate. Doesn't matter a bit whether that space is installed in a 737 or a A380, except that in the A380 you'll just be crammed in with a whole bunch more 17x31 inch spaces filled with miserable passengers not looking forward having to fight their way through customs with 549 or so other tired travellers. Let's face it, airline travel has been going down hill in terms of passenger comforts ever since new engine efficiencies allowed bean counters to cram in more seats, but in the end, it's just another cattle truck.

Oh, and it's uglier than any other airliner flying too  

And before you light up your flame throwers, I'm not going to be excited about that 17x31 inch space when it's installed in a 748I either.

[Edited 2006-09-24 19:38:38]
 
halls120
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 2:16 am

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 12):
..and as usual, most (and I do say MOST, not ALL) of the folks here giving the A380 a hard time have a US flag next to their IDs........

What is it about this trend?

LOL, it's no different than and the anti-Boeing threads where most of the B bashers have European flags.

Quoting ShowerOfSparks (Reply 19):
Basically it's just a bigger cattle wagon. The average passenger who only travels coach class is going to be crammed into that same 17-18 inch wide seat set at a 31-32 inch pitch used by the airlines on every other aircraft they operate. Doesn't matter a bit whether that space is installed in a 737 or a A380, except that in the A380 you'll just be crammed in with a whole bunch more 17x31 inch spaces filled with miserable passengers not looking forward having to fight their way through customs with 549 or so other tired travellers. Let's face it, airline travel has been going down hill in terms of passenger comforts ever since new engine efficiencies allowed bean counters to cram in more seats, but in the end, it's just another cattle truck.

Agree 100%. I might be in the minority here, but I'll be avoiding the A380 the same way I currently avoid the B747. I fly between 75-100K per year, and the only time I've flown the 747 in the last four years is the one time I missed my connection and had to take an LHR-IAD 747. I HATE going through customs with 400 other people. I pick flights in the following manner. First, I look for a nonstop, of course. Then, I look for the smallest plane - 767s and 332s are my favorite. Finally, I choose the airline that offers the most seat comfort.

While I will look at a Whalejet with awe the first time I see it at the airport or while in flight, and marvel at the effort it took to design, build and fly it, I have NO interest whatsoever in being a passenger in one.
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
sk909
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 2:19 am

Well experts is a very hard word to use... 10 - 15 years ago the "experts" didn't expect the SMS technology in mobilephones to used. Today it is the product with the European mobilephone companys that makes the most money compared to investment...
I don't give a rats ass about the "experts". Let the companys and the customers decide.

And if you Americans don't like the Whalejet, don't fly it. Then there will just be more seats for us that are looking forward to try it.
Life's for Living!
 
JakTrax
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 3:19 am

With comments like 'Boeing=better', I feel there is every reason for attacks. Also, how the hell can you predict that the 787 will last 10 years longer? The damn thing ain't even built yet, so let's not get ahead of ourselves!

Was Boeing better when Airbus invented true 'fly-by wire'? Is Boeing better because they've been making aeroplanes longer? Even though Airbus have equalled them in sales despite being in business only a fraction of the time?

In all honesty, neither manufacturer is better than the other; they are just different, with different marketing strategies. Who are we to say who is wrong and who is right? Supposing they're BOTH right, or even BOTH wrong? The 787 may have greater delays than the A380. It may even be a flop - unlikely but we don't know. As an aviation enthusiast, I never want to see any aircraft turn into a flop. There are too many political elements to this whole A vs. B story, and not enough love for aviation, IMHO.

On a final note, how can you possibly make a comparison between a Stratocruiser and an A380? Are you saying that, basically, the A380 is nothing more than an overgrown Stratocruiser? Pull the other one.....
That's like saying that trains haven't evolved because they still run on tracks, or cars haven't because they've still got steering wheels and run on petrol!

Also, there is a mention of fly-by-wire being "pretty common stuff since the A320 and 777". Last time I checked, the A320 utilised FBW some 7 or 8 years before the introduction of the 777. And as for the comment about the 747 carrying 1000+ pax, wasn't that an emergency air rescue of some sort, in the Middle East? Wasn't it an El Al plane? Obviously the A380 would be incapable of carrying that figure with all the seats pulled out.....

Karl
 
sk909
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 3:45 am

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 22):

You go get them, girl... Big grin

You are absolutely right.
Life's for Living!
 
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par13del
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:01 am

Well, here's something else to consider, slot restrictions, where do they come from? Imagine an increase in slot restricted airports, would that raise / increase the market demand / size for a/c the size of the A380? If that were to happen, the A380 would be around much longer and Boeing would now have to re-evaluate the market segment.
 
coiah756ca
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 6:23 am

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 22):

The comments were opinion and notice the wink. I am sorry, but I personally don't like Airbus. Does that make me a criminal? Jeez, guys.
Long live Denver-STAPLETON. RIP the old and best KDEN
 
sk909
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 6:36 am

Quoting COIAH756CA (Reply 25):

No it doesn't make you a criminal that you don't like Airbus.

I personally also like B. But that's because I think they have a more homogeneous product line.

Though I love the toilets with windows on the SK 340/330. It is cool to take dump on top of the world and being able to see it at the same time... Big grin

But nevertheless the A380 will, depending on future development in the airline industry, have a long future. As slots are getting harder and harder to get, there will be a demand for larger aircraft like 747 and 380.
Life's for Living!
 
vinniewinnie
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 6:45 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):
I think they'll all be parked in the dessert by 2025 at the latest -- maybe by 2020.

Don't be silly your maybe is in 14 years times. That's only 13 to 10 year operational use for pax+ cargo airline! Sounds a bit far fetched for such an expensive aircraft!

So if i understand you well you expect a lot of operational problems, Airlines not being able to fill it and cargo airlines finding it difficult to handle! So a total failure basically!

I beg to differ I reckon that if it sells reasonably well in the future we could still see it flying in 2040! Time will tell... Fingers crossed that it will operate as expected!
 
redflyer
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:31 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):
I think they'll all be parked in the dessert by 2025 at the latest -- maybe by 2020.

Gotta disagree with you on this one Zvezda. I think most will still be flying in 2025, but as freighters.

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 12):
...and as usual, most (and I do say MOST, not ALL) of the folks here giving the A380 a hard time have a US flag next to their IDs........

What is it about this trend?

What is it about this trend? The only trend I see is hypersensitivity by some to a very legitimate question.

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 22):
Who are we to say who is wrong and who is right?

Who are you to turn this into a right vs. wrong issue lathered up in political agendas when the thread starter was simply asking a question that I'm sure many airlines take into consideration when deciding whether or not to purchase a particular model?

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 22):
Was Boeing better when Airbus invented true 'fly-by wire'?

No, Airbus was better when they implemented FBW (they did not invent the technology).

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 22):
Is Boeing better because they've been making aeroplanes longer? Even though Airbus have equalled them in sales despite being in business only a fraction of the time?

Experience is usually -- but not necessarily always -- a good indicator of capabilities. Why else do you think pilots are promoted based on the number of hours in the cockpit (as just one of many available examples)?
A government big enough to take away a constitutionally guaranteed right is a government big enough to take away any guaranteed right. A government big enough to give you everything you need is a government big enough to take away everything you have.
 
antiuser
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:49 am

Quoting Futurecaptain (Reply 15):
Just being realistic. The trend lately is towards efficient twinjets and frequency on major routes. Not huge a/c as evidenced by sales of about 170 a/c and no new sales for some time.

I don't know, I'd say 170 pre-EIS sales of a niche aircraft is pretty good. Not ideal, but not dismal by any means.

Quoting COIAH756CA (Reply 18):
Boeing=better

Any hope you might've had that your comments be interpreted as fair is now shot to hell.
Azzurri Campioni del Mondo!
 
NWDC10
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 8:28 am

I believe it depends on the "World Economy". If it's up, more A380's will be used. If a World Recession or worse, then expect smaller aircraft to be used and A380's parked. Robert NWDC10
 
BigJimFX
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 8:41 am

Quoting SK909 (Reply 26):
Though I love the toilets with windows on the SK 340/330. It is cool to take dump on top of the world and being able to see it at the same time... Big grin

Fan-Flippin-tastic!
 rotfl 
I'd like to thank me for flying Me Airways...
 
dc10s4ever
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 8:51 am

Come on, they have to be delivered before they can be retired. Personally I think the A380 is the next MD11....So it is officially McBoeair MD-380
 
JakTrax
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 8:52 am

I was not slating the poster; he did indeed only ask the question - to which several people responded with anti-Airbus remarks. They are the people I'm targeting. And are you suggesting that the 'Boeing=better' comment was fair game? As another post states, credibility lost by posting that statement.

What's more, your 'hypersensitivity' rant is rubbish - I am an aviation enthusiast and am dead against political weight being thrown behind this never-ending debate. In other posts I've seen, the target of ill-feeling is Boeing, and I would equally criticise my European neighbours should they get too high up on the Airbus horse. I'm European, so naturally my support goes to Airbus - their projects keep my countrymen employed - however I wouldn't slate Boeing just because they're American and I'm not. I'm sure there is (and always will be) room for both players in an ever-expanding market. Let's face it, Embraer and Bombardier have found their niche, and we don't see the bitter rivalry on here when it comes to them.

Karl
 
elvis777
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 8:57 am

Howdy guys,

Just to add a bit more. The article in question was indeed not an article but a letter written to the editor. I found the letter interesting and somewhat well written (I dont know if AWST edited the piece) but it was not written by AWST. What the author of the letter was asking was this: (Paraphrasing, of course!)

The 747 was built circa 1970. Lots of airlines flew it. Some (lots) of them found it to be to big. The plane has been around for a long time. It has been modified time and time again for different airlines after the original sale. (after the original owner found it to big..). The nifty thing about the 47 was that it was capable of being modified and so it has had a long lifetime.

Now his question is this. If eads is using Al wiring throughout the whalejet how will this affect future sales of teh bird when the new owner requires modifications to the frame.

I believe taht he was alluding to teh issue taht Al wiring cannot be removed and then reinstalled like Cu wiring becasue of its physical properties (Breakeage).... and so hence it may not last as long...

Again, I am paraphrasing and I could have missed something.

Peace

Elvis777
Leper,Unevolved, Misplaced and Unrepentant SportsFanatic and a ZOMBIE as well
 
glacote
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:00 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):
I think they'll all be parked in the dessert by 2025 at the latest -- maybe by 2020.

Why? Killed by B787-11?

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 20):
LOL, it's no different than and the anti-Boeing threads where most of the B bashers have European flags.

Hmm...
1) which thread in particular are you referring to? Please compare the (multiple) threads on the ICAO report on wake turbulence to the single thread on the B787 being overweight.
2) I shall have much more reasons to be a B fan than an A fan. However it so happens that whenever I read A.net I feel outraged by most comments against A. It's not only spinning - it's anywhere from outright falsehoods repeated again and again (Gellman report anyone? A388 usable floor space?) to childish bashing (it's ugly, it will never fly, it would be fantastic if XXX cancelled all their A380 just because it would be fantastic, etc.)

I have not seen such comments against B's aircrafts.

That being said I don't really care as long as A.net stays a good source of real facts backed by deep technical/operational insight. I still do learn a lot reading A.net...

Thanks to the knoweldgeable participants out there!
 
A300605R
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:21 am

Quoting COIAH756CA (Reply 18):
Boeing=better

?
300 319 320 321 332 733 734 735 738 753 763 F27 M83
 
zvezda
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 11:45 am

Quoting Glacote (Reply 35):
Why? Killed by B787-11?

... and the A350, and Y3 if developed, and whatever Airbus comes up with in response to Y3.
 
ShowerOfSparks
Posts: 136
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RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:01 pm

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 22):
On a final note, how can you possibly make a comparison between a Stratocruiser and an A380? Are you saying that, basically, the A380 is nothing more than an overgrown Stratocruiser? Pull the other one.....
That's like saying that trains haven't evolved because they still run on tracks, or cars haven't because they've still got steering wheels and run on petrol!

Also, there is a mention of fly-by-wire being "pretty common stuff since the A320 and 777". Last time I checked, the A320 utilised FBW some 7 or 8 years before the introduction of the 777. And as for the comment about the 747 carrying 1000+ pax, wasn't that an emergency air rescue of some sort, in the Middle East? Wasn't it an El Al plane? Obviously the A380 would be incapable of carrying that figure with all the seats pulled out.....

Karl

Just pointing out that two decks for passenger use is nothing new.
Just pointing out that FBW is not new, it's been around for a long time now.
Did I not state in my post that the 747 carried in excess of 1000 pax during an emergency of some sort?
And I believe the 747 did it with seats installed.

My honest opinion, I think the A380 is done. I expect someone will cancel as a result of this latest delay and that may lead to others canceling as well. They'll end up placing them with an airline somewhere after basically giving them away. With all the compensation they'll pay out the A380 will never turn a profit for Airbus.

Concorde II
The things will never break even
 
redflyer
Posts: 3905
Joined: Thu Feb 24, 2005 3:30 am

RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:28 pm

Quoting ShowerOfSparks (Reply 38):
Did I not state in my post that the 747 carried in excess of 1000 pax during an emergency of some sort?

I think the most a 747 is on record for having flown is around 850, and that was during an evacuation so I'm not sure everyone was buckled into a certified seat.

Quoting ShowerOfSparks (Reply 38):
My honest opinion, I think the A380 is done.

Gotta disagree. I think the A380 will continue to sell, but no where near what was touted by its original sponsors (one of which, by the way, was recently sacked).

Quoting ShowerOfSparks (Reply 38):
I expect someone will cancel as a result of this latest delay and that may lead to others canceling as well.

A reasonable expectation.

Quoting ShowerOfSparks (Reply 38):
With all the compensation they'll pay out the A380 will never turn a profit for Airbus.

It may very well turn a profit, but many expect it to be a very small profit. Definitely not worth the US$15 Billion + (and counting) that Airbus has expended thus far.

In the final analysis, the aircraft is proving thus far to be a niche player. That could change, but only after EIS and if it proves to be all that it was marketed to be from an operating standpoint.
A government big enough to take away a constitutionally guaranteed right is a government big enough to take away any guaranteed right. A government big enough to give you everything you need is a government big enough to take away everything you have.
 
thetuna
Posts: 131
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:36 pm

RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:51 pm

Well I am going to flat out type what I am thinking.

I hope the A380 is a flop and a total failure.  crossfingers 

TheTuna
He just ate the big one! Hog!...get away from that thing!! Just get away from it!
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1771
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:45 am

RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 2:19 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):
I think they'll all be parked in the dessert

Will that be crème brûlée, or Schwarzwälder Kirschtorte?

C'mon everybody lighten up  spin 
 
antiuser
Posts: 646
Joined: Thu May 27, 2004 9:43 am

RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 3:01 pm

Quoting Thetuna (Reply 40):
Well I am going to flat out type what I am thinking.

I hope the A380 is a flop and a total failure. crossfingers

Well, I'm not going to flat out type what I think about that statement of yours because it would probably get me banned from this forum. I will however say this: if you truly wish total failure to an aircraft or manufacturer, I'm sorry but you are not a real aviation enthusiast. Sure, we all have our preferences regarding certain manufacturers and aircraft, but we are, first and foremost, AVIATION enthusiasts. I'm not saying you should bow before the A380 or refrain from criticising it, but wishing failure upon it is not only incredibly asinine, it's offensive.
Azzurri Campioni del Mondo!
 
futurecaptain
Posts: 1918
Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:54 am

RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:48 pm

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 22):
Was Boeing better when Airbus invented true 'fly-by wire'?

Yes, because Boeing decided you should be able to turn off the flight computer if need be.

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 22):
Is Boeing better because they've been making aeroplanes longer?

Experience in an industry never hurt anyone.

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 22):
Even though Airbus have equalled them in sales despite being in business only a fraction of the time?

Equalled in sales for a year. Not by any means close to total sales.

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 22):
Who are we to say who is wrong and who is right?

We're A.net and we know everything about aviation. Hadn't you heard?

Quoting SK909 (Reply 26):
As slots are getting harder and harder to get,

harder and harder to get at the handful of major airports who still use slots. Seriously, at 99% of airports in the world all you need is a free gate and you can run a flight.

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 33):
I'm European, so naturally my support goes to Airbus

As expected.

Quoting JakTrax (Reply 33):
Embraer and Bombardier have found their niche, and we don't see the bitter rivalry on here when it comes to them.

Sure we do. The Brazilians and Canadians just arn't as heated as the trans-atlantic tussel we all seem to have.

Quoting Glacote (Reply 35):
it's ugly, it will never fly

Oh, it flies. It uses the same principle helicopters use to fly. It's so ugly the Earth repels it.

Quoting Thetuna (Reply 40):
I hope the A380 is a flop and a total failure.

Wouldn't be the first time an Airbus a/c failed. Just look at their attempts so far to enter the 4 engined, high capacity, long haul market. A340....

Quoting Antiuser (Reply 42):
if you truly wish total failure to an aircraft or manufacturer, I'm sorry but you are not a real aviation enthusiast.

It makes him a realist. Seriously, the market for an a/c this size is not big and any airlines that need it have probably already ordered it. I guess any more sales will simply be add-ons, no new airlines will come for this. The trend lately is for bypassing major world hubs and having direct flights between any markets that will support them.
AirSO. ASpaceO. ASOnline. ASO.com ASO. ASO. ASO. ASO. ASO.
 
User avatar
sebolino
Posts: 3566
Joined: Tue May 29, 2001 11:26 pm

RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:49 pm

Quoting Thetuna (Reply 40):
I hope the A380 is a flop and a total failure.



Quoting COIAH756CA (Reply 25):
I am sorry, but I personally don't like Airbus.



Quoting COIAH756CA (Reply 18):
Prediction: The 787 will outlast the A380 by at least 10 years. Boeing=better.



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):
I think they'll all be parked in the dessert by 2025 at the latest -- maybe by 2020.

I wonder if a psychologist (or maybe a psychiatrist would be better ?) would find this interesting. It seems that for different reasons (I see national pride and anti-Europeanism mainly) some people act towards the plane and the company just like they would do towards a neighbour or a colleague.
I find it so stupid to dislike - or should I say hate - a company because it builds some planes in another country, or to hate a plane because it's not made by your local manufacturer ...
You just have to read all the anti-A threads to understand. One of the most laughable sentence which we see regularly is "If I was Airbus ...".
Yeah, if you were Airbus, you would be a Societe Anonyme Simplifiee, not a kid playing with a keyboard to expose your national pride.

I saw this phenomenon before, but it was between 2 American companies: Intel and AMD. You had kids (and grown up kids) arguing about who was the good guy and who was the stupid loser. It was just as stupid as the comments we see in this thread.

Now ask yourself a question: Why do you like/hate a company like if it was a dog ? Are you just confused or do you need to find something to believe in ?
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 5:13 pm

The A 380 will stay in service until the Boeing BWB comes into service. My guess would be 15 years from now. The windtunnel testing is complete. " scale flying testbeds have been built by Cranfield (for Boeing).They have been shipped to (I believe Edwards) where the flying programme commenced this month. Powered by Williams jets these ayrcraft will explore the low to medium altitude and speed envelope as well as the all important T/O and Landing stability checks.
All the wind tunnel testing endorced the computational predictions of a 30% efficiency gain over tube and wing designs. Boeing have 2 sizes/cofigurations under consideration. (they have dropped the double decker concept. One is a twin the other a Tri. Tese being 400-700 seaters. They will render the A380 obselete. Which is why Airbus is "rushing" the A380 programme and making mistakes-they have a tight 15 year window.
 
sk909
Posts: 244
Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:38 pm

RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 5:46 pm

Quoting Futurecaptain (Reply 43):
handful of major airports who still use slots.

I didn't know... What airport are we talking about? I imagine LHR is one of them. But who are the rest?
Life's for Living!
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13965
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 5:56 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):
I think they'll all be parked in the dessert by 2025 at the latest -- maybe by 2020.

Airbus foresees a production of more then 30 years. If those aircraft are coverted into freighters they could fly 30 years at least. So some of them will probably be flying in 60 years.

Just like the 747. 747-8F delivered in 1015 will fly for 30 years -> 2045. First flight 1969: >75 years of 747s in the air.

What airlines, engines, lenght, weight etc. the A380 will have in 25 years? Dunno, a A380-1000ERX with engines /cockpit avionics, cabins not yet in development probably.

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/photos/big/00005598.jpg

[Edited 2006-09-25 11:18:37]
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
EDDB
Posts: 217
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:46 am

RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 6:37 pm

Quoting Dc10s4ever (Reply 32):
Personally I think the A380 is the next MD11...

Which couldn't compete with A340/330/B777 in the same market... But help me out, who were the 2 others competing with the A380 in the 500+ market...?
I can't recall right now...

Seriously guys... Have you ever looked at the ratio of sales before EIS to sales after EIS of jet airliner programs during the last 30 years or so? And if you did, how can you seriously expect Airbus to sell only little more than the up to now ordered 159 frames in the next two decades when there is no real contender and the only problem at the moment is wiring... Time expensive, true, but hey, this thing is not cracking up nor is it more thirsty than promised or something like that!

Everyone of you has the right to have an opinion on that bird, but considering some of your scenarios I sometimes doubt that a few of you are following aviation longer than a week or so.... No offense...
 
PlaneHunter
Posts: 6538
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:17 am

RE: How Long Will The A380 Last?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 6:45 pm

Men willingly believe what they wish.
Julius Caesar


PH
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