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NAV20
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 9:15 am

I get the impression that many people think that Airbus can afford to go on concentrating on the A380 because the rest of their range will go on selling in reasonable numbers, even if not up-dated.

Quoting FD728 (Reply 47):
About the A350: it indeed would be wise to postpone it until the A380-issues are sorted out. They need to bundle their engineering power. Besides, the A330 is still selling.



Quoting Baroque (Reply 48):
had just absorbed from Nav20 that B>>>A in widebodies (fair enough) and that the A32x is dominated by the B737 (???)

In fact, to my mind, the most serious problem facing Airbus is NOT the difficulties with the A380 but the fact that sales of ALL their models - not just the A380 - are virtually stalled:-

1. Total sales of the A330 in 2006 stand at 20. In the same period, Boeing have sold 141 X 787 and 20 X 777.

2. Total 2006 sales of the A320 are 100; against Boeing's sales of 539 X 737s.

This trend set in early in the year - even before the June share collapse and has persisted for several months. It appears therefore to be structural, not frictional in nature.

Airbus have a backlog amounting to about two years of widebody porduction and four years worth of single-aisle production. The present intention is to use most of the company's limited resources until 2010 on sorting out the A380 and getting it into volume production.

In my view the proper use of those resources would be trying to restore Airbus' competitiveness in the single-aisle and midsize sectors. Not continuing the 'rescue mission' for the A380.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
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Stitch
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:47 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 98):
I am asking you why you believe that the market is avoiding aircraft in the B748i size range.

Because 747-400 passenger sales ceased after 2002 and no customer has expressed a public "hard" interest in the 748I. So far it's not generating any interest other then what Boeing claims. While I don't believe Boeing is lying nor do I believe they are distorting that interest, that none of these airlines have gone public to say they're at least looking at the model, much less seriously weighing placing an order, makes me question how relevant this size market is today - especially compared to how relevant it was in the 1960s-1990s.

That doesn't mean the plane will never sell. As folks note, there are hundreds of 747-300 and 747-400 frames out there that will eventually need to be replaced. But perhaps, just perhaps, many of those frames might stick around longer then some people think? Yes, airlines like SQ are essentially required to depreciate and get rid of their planes on what would be considered a short-term basis for such a durable good, but a properly maintained, low-annual-cycle 747-400 should be able to last three decades or more, easy.

It's not like there is some magic "sell-by" date on these planes and they suddenly turn into pumpkins at midnight.  Silly Many of these airline's five to ten year growth models may show that it is better to soldier on with their current 744s, updating the interiors at each heavy maintenance, then take a 20-year gamble on either a 748I or an A388.
 
Dougloid
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:49 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 90):
Quoting Hb88 (Reply 83):
In any case, a company that is helped by a domestic statute which in effect aids its operation outside market forces, particularly say in the case of an airline, in an international context is, IMO, much the same as a government providing assistance to a large corporate. It's a simple-minded view but I think the effect is simila

Except foreign airlines can reorganize under US Chapter 11. Avianca did.

Correct. Nothing stopping them from incorporating in Delaware and scoring some of that supposed advantage that airlines in bankruptcy have LOL
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:51 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 99):
Therefore the market is NICHE still as opposed to the A380-8 which caters to a market for 550+

1) Dude, take a breath! Your post reads like Kerouac.
2) Both the B748i and the A388 will be niche aircraft.
3) You really didn't explain why SIZE determines that the B748i won't sell, which was the point Stitch was trying to make.
The point can't be made, so I'm going to stop asking for an explanation. white 
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
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mariner
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:59 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 100):
1. Total sales of the A330 in 2006 stand at 20. In the same period, Boeing have sold 141 X 787 and 20 X 777.

2. Total 2006 sales of the A320 are 100; against Boeing's sales of 539 X 737s.

If it is all just a race with Boeing, then Airbus - I would imagine - will lose this year, maybe for some years - or maybe forever.

It is entirely probable that Boeing will make/sell more aircraft - presumably for more profit - but I don't think Airbus should be distracted by this.

They should concentrate making good aircraft that they can sell at a profit.

Airbus should be pursuing excellence, not market share. If the result is a different Airbus, then so be it.

If a third manufacturer pops up, so be it.

But if the A380 is what Mr. Clark says - "a seriously good aircraft" - then at least they are halfway home on that one.

It is, without doubt, a testing time for the new team at Airbus, who may be as surprised as anyone to find themselves in this situation. They thought they had a CEO.

But adversity tests the mettle much more than complaicency, and the pursuit of competitive market share has led more than one company into disaster.

mariner
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bringiton
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:00 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 103):
Both the B748i and the A388 will be niche aircraft.

That is what i claim that both the aircrafts would be niche although IMO the 747-8 might end up catering to a smaller market which might reflect in its sales performance against eh A380-8

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 103):
You really didn't explain why SIZE determines that the B748i won't sell, which was the point Stitch was trying to make.

I agree with him with the fact that there isnt going to be huge demand for the 747-8 infact if you read some of what i have had to say about the 747-8 in the my relativly short time over here is that it would probably not gain more then 40-50 or so orders in the next 6-8 years which isnt all that much but when you add them to the F version it brings boeing ahead and in the black with a decent sized profit to make the 747-8 a profitable aircraft to venture into for boeing ( not bad money through the profit margin) . The 747-8 wont sell that much simply because airlines have existing aircrafts that will suffice for the short to mid term while others will see demand fragment further ( like it has done in the past) all in all both the 747-8I and the a380-8 will cater to a niche market but i believe that given the capital investment into the I and F the 747-8 will make a decent profit mainly through the F version while all in all doing OK with the Passenger version while offering a more catered product to airlines that might be interested !! I think Stitch , you and I are pretty much on the same Page other then the fact that I am giving boeing the benefit of the doubt when its sales team comes and says that they are getting good response ( good would be relative to the investment IMO as the 747-8I isnt a 15 billion dollar cash Dump) atleast till the first quarter next year !
 
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ER757
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:14 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 12):
In order to preserve a truly competitive environment, the industry needs at least one, preferably two significant competitors - hopefully somebody will seize the opportunity.

 checkmark  While some here have pointed out that there may not be room for another, citing the demise of McDD, Fokker, Lockheed etc, I think the time may be right given the current situation. The current convoluted logic of continuing to support a company that has dropped the ball actually makes sense in the current scheme of things, and that's just crazy! I completely understand why airlines are saying they have to stand by Airbus instead of just going, hat in hand, to Boeing. If Boeing suddenly had 80% or more of the market, they could ask any price they wanted. If a 3rd player was in the game, then airlines fed up with the current fiasco over at A could have a real choice.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 29):
800 747s have to be replaced in the next 20 years



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 31):
If Airbus continues to put all its spare cash and resources into the A380, and therefore has nothing to spare to develop an A350 and an A320 replacement, the airlines will have to buy over 90% of their aeroplanes (i.e. all midsizes and most single-aisles) from Boeing, with no-one else offering modern/efficient alternatives



Quoting Keesje (Reply 32):
NAV20, I doubt many airlines will feel the need to replace their 747's with A350 / A320 replacements, but I'll think it over.

Keesje- I think if you missed NAV20's point. You speak of the 800 747's that need replacement - NAV20 was trying to point out that there are THOUSANDS of A320's, 737's, 767's, A330's that will also need replacement and he feels Airbus may be missing the boat on that much more lucrative market while concentrating on the A380.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 12:03 pm

Quoting ER757 (Reply 106):
If Boeing suddenly had 80% or more of the market, they could ask any price they wanted.

And if they were stupid enough to do that. I assume Boeing knows that overpricing their product would be an invitation to other manufacturers to enter the market.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
NAV20
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 2:29 pm

Quoting ER757 (Reply 106):
If Boeing suddenly had 80% or more of the market, they could ask any price they wanted.

As a matter of fact, Boeing already DOES have 80% of the market, as near as dammit.

Boeing's net order total in 2006 is 753. Airbus list 226 gross, but according to Hamlet69's thread the net total is around 200 (of which 13 are 'Mark One' A350s, which clearly will not get built/delivered).

753 plus 200 is 953. That makes the percentage shares Boeing 79%, Airbus 21%.

I don't for one moment think that Boeing will opt for drastic over-pricing. The laws of supply and demand will continue to apply, even if there is no effective competition. Higher prices mean fewer sales even in monopoly situations.

Boeing may, however, be in a position to hold out for a somewhat better profit margin than hitherto on some models. If so, good luck to them, they've earned the chance.

[Edited 2006-10-13 07:31:18]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
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N328KF
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 2:44 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 108):
Boeing may, however, be in a position to hold out for a somewhat better profit margin than hitherto on some models. If so, good luck to them, they've earned the chance.

Well, there are several other aspects that could indicate higher margins for Boeing, even if they keep prices proportionately competitive with EADS Airbus. For that matter, with higher margins, Boeing could charge less and still do well. In fact, they have done just that with the 787 pricing structure.

  • Move to more efficient methods of producing existing airframes (moving lines, other processes taken from Motorola and Toyota)
  • Newer technologies (CFRP) and a revolution in construction method (rolled graphite tape cabins, etc.) mean lower production costs on new models
  • More efficient development cycle; Two years less has been the amount of time thrown about
  • Beneficial exchange rate with the lower dollar
  • Economies of scale, as higher demand means lower negotiated prices with 2nd and 3rd tier suppliers.
  • Better access to debt facilities, particularly if EADS Airbus is denied its traditional low-cost funding source
  • Others?


[Edited 2006-10-13 07:48:20]
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
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PlaneHunter
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 2:58 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 108):
As a matter of fact, Boeing already DOES have 80% of the market, as near as dammit.

Currently, one should add.


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
manni
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 3:39 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 100):
2. Total 2006 sales of the A320 are 100; against Boeing's sales of 539 X 737s.




Quoting NAV20 (Reply 100):
Total sales of the A330 in 2006 stand at 20



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 108):
Airbus list 226 gross, but according to Hamlet69's thread the net total is around 200


Using the numbers you provided..

(Total) 200 - 100 (A320) - 20 (A330) = 80.

Are these 80 A340s and/or A380s? No they aren't. Because you are comparing the total numbers of 737s sold with the amount of A320s (and only the A320) sold ( and excluding the other members A318, A319 and A321).

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 100):
Airbus have a backlog amounting to about two years of widebody porduction and four years worth of single-aisle production. T

There are 228 A330/340 left on the backlog. Airbus' capacity is maximum 8 aircraft a month (and not 10). That leaves them with a backlog of 34,5 months, if they intend to put them out at maximum speed.

(FYI The current pending orders for the A330/340 are worth another 9 months of production and there appear to be many more in the pipeline)

I've corrected you on both these points before, but you keep posting the same twisted truth. Why is that NAV20?
 
Joni
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 5:37 pm

Quoting Poitin (Reply 42):
The issue in not that the A320 and A330 aren't good airplanes and they are being built in numbers. It's that the company of Airbus hasn't made many if any good decisons since taken over by EADS. There is a severe erosion in confidence in Airbus and that must be rebuilt. So far, they have only been making the loss in confidence greater with escapades such as the hiring and firing of Streiff.

As for those "huge discounts" remember that they have their money tied up on something that is not making money for them. They need ROI not discounts.

Poitin, let's not change the subject. Why would the airlines cancel the A380 orders, taking into account the factors I mentioned in post 40:

Quoting Joni (Reply 40):
Would they cancel their A380 orders, which are orders for planes they need, a plane that meets or exceeds the guaranteed performance and for which they're getting a huge discount (taking the late-delivery penalties into account)? The latest news from the order front is SQ converting options to orders, and buying even more options.

Did your friend take into account the fact that if an airline cancels orders, they aren't going to get the planes?
 
baroque
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 5:54 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 74):
I think the passenger market is going to trend above and below the 747's flight level.



Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 78):

I really don't see this. Better to argue that there is something fundamentally wrong with the B748i offering, not that it is the wrong size.

It does appear that there is something about the 748i that may not be as attractive as the Boeing sales trailers indicate - either too small, or no longer competitive. On the face of it, you would suppose that however good a large plane was, there would be a market for a 10 or 20% smaller one from airlines without the capacity demand. So far there does not seem to be such a market in spite of all the A380 woes.

Maybe the Stitch argument is correct, and maybe the TeamAmerica argument is correct, but I begin to wonder if we will ever know.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 100):
2. Total 2006 sales of the A320 are 100; against Boeing's sales of 539 X 737s.

Aha, now I understand Nav20, I had assumed that this part of 2006 was too short a time, but 9+ months is getting a bit long. If anything, the 32xs should be more attractive with their upgrade, so either this part of 2006 is not significant, or there has been a turnaround in Airbus's major market.

The question would have to be, why would the 32x stop selling? Any offers. The wiring on the A380 does not make the A32x any less attractive, or does it?
 
AirSpare
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 6:15 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 109):
Others?

The fall of the dollar on the international market has helped B export at a lower cost, and EADS has said (though there are finance guys on a.nut that can verify this), that airplanes are priced in dollars. Hence, as the dollar falls, so do A's margins.
Get someone else for your hero worship fetish
 
Joni
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 7:57 pm

Quoting AirSpare (Reply 114):

The fall of the dollar on the international market has helped B export at a lower cost, and EADS has said (though there are finance guys on a.nut that can verify this), that airplanes are priced in dollars. Hence, as the dollar falls, so do A's margins.

A fall in the dollar is a major risk factor for Airbus, since at least the lion's share of planes are sold in USD (for the time being).

If the dollar were to lose, say, 40% of its value (as some economists say it might) then not only Airbus but also the B787 program would be in dire straits, since the non-US suppliers either charge in their owh currency (making the parts more expensive to Boeing, which would have to pass the proce rise on to the customers) or even worse, if Boeing has secured USD-denominated prices for the B787 parts procures from e.g. Japan. Then the B787 manufacturers there would not be able to show profit from the venture, even when subsidies are counted in.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:16 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 113):
On the face of it, you would suppose that however good a large plane was, there would be a market for a 10 or 20% smaller one from airlines without the capacity demand. So far there does not seem to be such a market in spite of all the A380 woes.

If there is truly no demand for an aircraft sized 10-20% smaller than A380, then I would suggest that there is actually no demand for the larger aircraft either. If we accept this argument, then the only explanation is that airlines are buying big simply because it is the biggest rather than due to rational calculation of the aircraft size they need.

Take Airbus & Boeing out of consideration altogether. If airlines entirely skip a particular sized aircraft in order to buy the biggest available, I'd say it's all hubris. I find it easier to believe that B748i has some shortcomings than to believe that there is no demand at all for an aircraft sized just below A380.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
Dougloid
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:29 pm

Quoting Joni (Reply 115):
Quoting AirSpare (Reply 114):

The fall of the dollar on the international market has helped B export at a lower cost, and EADS has said (though there are finance guys on a.nut that can verify this), that airplanes are priced in dollars. Hence, as the dollar falls, so do A's margins.

A fall in the dollar is a major risk factor for Airbus, since at least the lion's share of planes are sold in USD (for the time being).

If the dollar were to lose, say, 40% of its value (as some economists say it might) then not only Airbus but also the B787 program would be in dire straits, since the non-US suppliers either charge in their owh currency (making the parts more expensive to Boeing, which would have to pass the proce rise on to the customers) or even worse, if Boeing has secured USD-denominated prices for the B787 parts procures from e.g. Japan. Then the B787 manufacturers there would not be able to show profit from the venture, even when subsidies are counted in.

Don't kid yourself Joni. Airbus and Boeing have hedged against this both on the buying and on the selling side. Long term it's not good for Europe but that's the way she tumbles. I guess nobody was bitching when the dollar was worth about .9 euros a few years ago.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
Poitin
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:37 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 107):
Quoting ER757 (Reply 106):
If Boeing suddenly had 80% or more of the market, they could ask any price they wanted.

And if they were stupid enough to do that. I assume Boeing knows that overpricing their product would be an invitation to other manufacturers to enter the market.

Hopefully you are right, because we do need a third player and we can have A vs B vs C (China) arguments, which would make a.net even more fun!
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
Joni
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:59 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 109):
# Others?

Massive subsidies from the Japanese government also help.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 117):

Don't kid yourself Joni. Airbus and Boeing have hedged against this both on the buying and on the selling side. Long term it's not good for Europe but that's the way she tumbles. I guess nobody was bitching when the dollar was worth about .9 euros a few years ago.

It's true Airbus has hedged, and doubtless Boeing as well. However, as the circumstances persist for years and years the hedges will eventually expire - and Airbus at least has been making noises that their hedges are beginning to do just that.

Over the longer term, a strong Euro can be beneficial for European companies, as they'll have to become leaner and more efficient to overcome the exchange rate disadvantage. Over the medium term it can spell trouble.
 
halls120
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:07 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 104):
They should concentrate making good aircraft that they can sell at a profit.

Airbus should be pursuing excellence, not market share. If the result is a different Airbus, then so be it.

Both companies should be pursuing the manufacture of good aircraft they can sell at a profit.

Otherwise, they'll both eventually go away.
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
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Stitch
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:02 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 119):
Massive subsidies from the Japanese government also help.

If MITI wants to subsidize Japanese companies to allow them to meet Boeing's requirements and keep Boeing from choosing someone else to supply those components, that's between MITI and the companies.

Just as the State of Alabama subsidizing Northrup-Grumman to allow them to meet Airbus' requirements to build the KC-330 and prevent them from choosing another state is between the State and NG/EADS.

If those subsidies are the only way Fuji and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries can meet Boeing's demands and no other company could meet those demands without their own subsidies, yes that is a bonus to Boeing, but Boeing would likely support higher costs if that is what it took.

Just as if no US state offered NG any subsidies and therefore Airbus had to pay more to build the KC-330 in the US rather then build them in TLS and fly them over to be fitted-out as tankers.

After all, MITI is not writing Boeing checks nor is Alabama writing NG or EADS checks.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:11 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 29):

- 800 747s have to be replaced in the next 20 years



Quoting Zeke (Reply 46):

If it were not for Chapter 11, how many airlines would there be in the USA today ?

If a Chapter 11 style arrangement was entered into with Airbus, would the people in the USA cry unfair, or would they say fair game ?

Because the United States Government owns any of the air carriers or Boeing....the air carriers are owned by private individuals/institutions/investors..they are putting their money at risk..not the govt... no 

OTOH....various governments are directly putting money into Airbus..
"Up the Irons!"
 
bringiton
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:21 am

I think we have to differentiate between Direct and indirect subsidies -


* Do states like Alabama , Cities like hamburg etc provide insentives for buisness to come there way ?

* Does Japanese govt provide carrots so that their companies become leaner and boeing chooses them over the rest ??

* Does airbus's parterns also get insentives to be the PREFFERED ? (i dont know !)

* Does boeing get tax breaks to set up shop in WA ?

* Does Airbus get Tax breaks to set up shop in Hamburg ?

* Does boeing deal with defence contracts through ID and PW devisions of the parent company ?

* Does Airbus deal with defence contracts through parent company EADS ?

* Does Boeing get US govt to lend it money ( LEND not DONATE) to launch an aircraft ?

* Does Airbus get european govts to Lend it money ( LEND not DONATE) to launch an aircraft ?

* Does the US govt own stock of Boeing if so how much ?

* Do european govts own stock of airbus if so how much ?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:52 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 123):
* Do states like Alabama (and) cities like Hamburg provide (incentives) for business to come there way?

Yes.

Quote:
Does Japanese govt provide carrots so that their companies become leaner and Boeing chooses them over the rest?

Probably.

Quote:
Does airbus's partners also get (incentives) to be the PREFERRED (supplier)?

Possibly.

Quote:
Does Boeing get tax breaks to set up shop in WA?

Yes, as do any other aerospace industry company (and many have come to WA since that incentive package was passed by the State legislature).

Quote:
Does Airbus get Tax breaks to set up shop in Hamburg?

Yes.

Quote:
Does Boeing deal with defence contracts through ID and PW divisions of the parent company?

Yes.

Quote:
Does Airbus deal with defence contracts through parent company EADS?

Yes.

Quote:
Does Boeing get US govt to lend it money (LEND not DONATE) to launch an aircraft?

Not for commercial aircraft, but the US Department of Defense does help pay for the development of military aircraft and for the conversion of existing commercial aircraft into a military role.

Quote:
Does Airbus get european govts to Lend it money ( LEND not DONATE) to launch an aircraft?

Yes, for both commercial and military aircraft.

Quote:
Does the US govt own stock of Boeing. If so how much?

No.

Quote:
Do European govts own stock of airbus. If so how much?

France and Spain both hold shares in EADS, and by extension, Airbus. France's 30.17% share is held both directly and through a holding company - Lagardère Group. Spain's 5.51% share is held through a holding company - SEPI. Currently, the German government does not hold shares, but there are rumors they may take a portion of Daimler-Chrysler's 30.17% holdings. *

* - Percentages provided by Wikipedia.
 
dhefty
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 4:41 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 111):
There are 228 A330/340 left on the backlog. Airbus' capacity is maximum 8 aircraft a month (and not 10). That leaves them with a backlog of 34,5 months, if they intend to put them out at maximum speed.

The backlog at the end of September is 215 representing 27 months production, so it seems NAV20 is correct.
 
sllevin
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 5:00 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 92):
n the real world support sometimes comes from the most unusual sources including political. It happens in your back garden. government support for airlines after 9/11. Did all of them need it? Why did your politicians feel it necessary to prop up inefficient airlines?



Quoting Mariner (Reply 95):
he case made for the ATSB "loans" was to help those airlines that could not raise money in the capital markets.

In other words, the free market was skewed.

The significant difference is that launch aid is the end result of a long, deliberate and planned process where a decision is made, in light of the market to proceed with a plan.

The US money to the airlines as well as the ATSB money were the result of an unplanned, unforseen, catastrophic event. Yes, especially with the initial funds dispersed, there was a conscious decision by the US Government to avoid allowing thee events -- and the decision of the US Government to shut down aviation -- to not directly put companies out of business. The ATSB loans were a corollary to that, in that it was capital provided to companies in distress from the initial event.

Steve
 
ebbuk
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 5:42 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 100):
1. Total sales of the A330 in 2006 stand at 20. In the same period, Boeing have sold 141 X 787 and 20 X 777.

2. Total 2006 sales of the A320 are 100; against Boeing's sales of 539 X 737s.

How long have you been following civil aviation NAV? The figures relating to plane orders booked by airlines for this year which is another guide to orders for 2006 are Boeing 561 Airbus 441. source justplanes.com

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 108):
Boeing may, however, be in a position to hold out for a somewhat better profit margin than hitherto on some models. If so, good luck to them, they've earned the chance.

I agree with you on that and they'd be foolish not to cash in on their status. Only thing is they must remember what happened the last time they were in the same dominant position, they got greedy and took their eye of the ball.

Quoting Sllevin (Reply 126):
The US money to the airlines as well as the ATSB money were the result of an unplanned, unforseen, catastrophic event. Yes, especially with the initial funds dispersed, there was a conscious decision by the US Government to avoid allowing thee events -- and the decision of the US Government to shut down aviation -- to not directly put companies out of business. The ATSB loans were a corollary to that, in that it was capital provided to companies in distress from the initial event.Steve

I am sorry Steve with the greatest respect to you, I have had it up to my back teeth with this persistant US AID IS DIFFERENT TO EURO AID SO IT ISN'T AID REALLY. GOVERNMENT HANDS OUT MONEY = GOVERNMENT LOAN (you can tell how sick I am). If your country truly operated in markets driven by their own forces, then the aviation market, post 9/11, would have survived. But just with a lot of casualties. Your nation and it's leaders decided that was something it couldn't allow and propped up the market. I am sorry your nation is no better or worse than others that intervene in their markets or artificially create markets to suit their own nationalistic political policies.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:28 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 127):
The figures relating to plane orders booked by airlines for this year which is another guide to orders for 2006 are Boeing 561 Airbus 441. source justplanes.com

Justplanes is counting Airbus LoI's (like SQ's 20 A350s) and has not counted the latest Boeing orders.

For a more accurate picture:

From Boeing's own site, the total so far is 753 net orders: http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/index.cfm

From Airbus' own site, the total so far is 226: http://www.airbus.com/odxml/orders_and_deliveries.xls
 
dhefty
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:39 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 128):
For a more accurate picture:

From Boeing's own site, the total so far is 753 net orders: http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/index.cfm

From Airbus' own site, the total so far is 226: http://www.airbus.com/odxml/orders_a...s.xls

Airbus net orders are 200 through September.
 
ebbuk
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 7:41 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 128):
Justplanes is counting Airbus LoI's (like SQ's 20 A350s) and has not counted the latest Boeing orders.

My understanding from the justplanes folk is that your statement is incorrect. They only record orders announced by airlines and not those by A or B.
 
bringiton
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 7:48 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 130):

My understanding from the justplanes folk is that your statement is incorrect. They only record orders announced by airlines and not those by A or B.

Whereas a more correct way of doing is to look at Actual ORDER SIGNINGS which take place between an airline and manufacterer , Boeing do not list sales as ORDERS until the contract is signed and in cases where a contract has been signed but the airline does not want to disclose their signing then they list those orders as UFO's until the airline chooses to make public that it has signed the orders . For those airlines that have chosen to buy a particular product but are working out the nitty gritty's before the order is signed they refer as COMMITMENT's . Then there are LOI's etc etc
 
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mariner
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 8:44 am

Quoting Sllevin (Reply 126):
The significant difference is that launch aid is the end result of a long, deliberate and planned process where a decision is made, in light of the market to proceed with a plan.

The difference is of attitude as well as circumstance. The ATSB was a product of the US system, just as launch aid is a product of the European system.

The effect is the same, an involvement in the market.

The US preferred to inhibit the possibility of US airlines going bankrupt, while Europe allowed a couple to go to the wall.

Similarly, in Australia, anyone who has a fiduciary relationship with Qantas can be fairly sure that, in extremis, much of their money is probably safe, no the matter the fortunes of the airline.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
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Stitch
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 8:55 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 129):
Airbus net orders are 200 through September.

Airbus' spreadsheet doesn't show cancellations, evidently, just raw orders, since it plainly says 226 under Total to Date. *shrug*

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 130):
My understanding from the justplanes folk is that your statement is incorrect. They only record orders announced by airlines and not those by A or B.

Fair enough. Assuming all those Airbus deals come through, that will help them, but Boeing still has an almost 2:1 numerical edge in confirmed (announced or otherwise) orders at this time, so I don't see the race as tight at the moment as Justplanes' figures would suggest.

[Edited 2006-10-14 01:56:10]
 
AirNZ
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:27 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 72):
I think this is very different from a government bailout, where taxpayer funds are essentially gifted to the company under some legal guise.

I would respectfully disagree in the sense that is not paying debts (while competitors have to), getting a refund on payments made 90 days prior to entering, obliterating employer/employee contractual obligations......and all while still being allowed to do business normally.....not just another form of a 'legal guise"?
Flown:F27/TU134/Viscount/Trident/BAC111/727/737/747/757/767/777/300/310/320/321/330/340/DC9/DC10/Dash8/Shorts330/BAe146
 
NAV20
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 11:29 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 127):
How long have you been following civil aviation NAV? The figures relating to plane orders booked by airlines for this year which is another guide to orders for 2006 are Boeing 561 Airbus 441. source justplanes.com

EbbUK, for the truth on Airbus orders and deliveries, I would recommend the EADS site - being a publicly-quoted company they are bound to publish only authenticated figures. Click on 'Monthly EADS Direct Newsletter' under Investor Relations. However, unlike Boeing, they only show gross orders, not net totals, so their figures are still optimistic to that extent.

http://www.eads.com/web/lang/en/1024...F00000000400004/6/03/31000036.html

As pointed out by others, my order figures are correct. Indeed it's fair to say that the 2006 order figures are still over-stated, since 13 of Airbus' figure of 200 are 'old new' A350s, which will certainly need re-negotiation before they can be classified as 'firm.' Moreover the October Newsletter refers to only four new orders, all of them A320s or smaller variants. It also shows 10 widebody deliveries in September; 5 X A330, 5 X A340.

So Airbus are not currently selling ANY widebodies, and orders in hand will only keep midsize production going for about two years.

I would have thought that, to any businessman, the developing slump in orders, particualrly midsize ones, would rank as a more serious threat to the future of the company than any worry about whether the A380 can be certified/constructed/delivered or not.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
manni
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:24 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 125):
The backlog at the end of September is 215 representing 27 months production, so it seems NAV20 is correct.

Yes you're right. Thank you for your correction. Did some very bad math in my previous reply. However I did correct NAV20 on this before (without bad math), perhaps he did take notice. The other point I made remains valid (comparing the sales of the A320 with those of all 737 members).

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 135):
So Airbus are not currently selling ANY widebodies,

Perhaps not today but they sold 5 A330's yesterday, and 9 in august.
You can't make any sensible conclusion with these numbers..., nor with yours.

You've highlighted september with 0 widebody sales, to CREATE YOUR point. Let me create a better picture, using factual correct numbers.

August, september and half october are good for atleast 14 widebody aircraft of the A330/340 family. That's 14 over good 10 weeks. Over 52 weeks this would result in about 72 aircraft. At this rate Airbus would not run out of her backlog untill well into 2015 (taking in 72 orders a year and producing 96 a year).

Easy isn't it, to CREATE a point.

Imagine how the numbers would look like if I only limited myself to the past week. I could give the impression that Airbus will be selling 260 A330's and 1560 A32S a year (half of them A321s).  rotfl 

http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre..._10_13_lufthansa_a320_a330300.html
 
dhefty
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:59 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 133):
Quoting Dhefty (Reply 129):
Airbus net orders are 200 through September.

Airbus' spreadsheet doesn't show cancellations, evidently, just raw orders, since it plainly says 226 under Total to Date. *shrug*

At the end of 2005, Airbus reported a total of 6307 total orders during their existence. Last month they showed 6511. Therefore I conclude that they have a net of 204 for this year, including cancellations.
 
spkyflyer
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 4:23 pm

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 66):
As much as I once thought the A380 was the right idea launched at the wrong time, at this point Airbus no choice but to go forward. And as FD notes, it could eventually be successful. I doubt it will ever sell 1300 frames, but reaching their original sales projection isn't all that unimaginable.

I think this is probably on the money. Boeing may well be rockin' it out with all the majors right now (deservedly), but it is likely the performance of the A380 will eventually be on brand, and for the right airline that will move them enough to buy more. For Airbus - the mid-range target is not so out of focus. For us all (and Boeing) - the guilty pleasure is the drama and the speculation!

Whether the long term picture is anywhere near as gilded as the dreams concieved by the EU in the 90's, is clearly now in major doubt. If however Oil pricing holds fairly steady for the next 7-12 years ( I said If!) then maybe the final tally will be quite respectable and overall a successful programme ( I said maybe!).

NB: You got to feel for the Airbus team, the sales event that is the 787 came from nowhere and its stellar sales have to hurt. If I was Leahy I'd be totally crushed - let down by bad project management (inexcusable) and nasty poli/corporate infrastructure (seemingly unavoidable). I feel for you mate, but ultimately the strategy & product line-up was flawed. The strategy/mgt/design teams at Boeing hit it out the park - hats off to them.
 
Alessandro
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:17 pm

Just imagine how much the service and sparepart trade are worth for the Airbuses flying today, if Airbus would stop making planes tomorrow.
Offical UK has always been critical of the Airbus company, it was a private
UK company that had good relation with Airbus, not Rolls-Royce (who was
high on the tristar back then)...
From New Yorqatar to Califarbia...
 
CHIFLYGUY
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 8:43 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 135):

So Airbus are not currently selling ANY widebodies, and orders in hand will only keep midsize production going for about two years.

That's a bit of an exaggeration. Airbus probably has 200 A330/A340's in its backlog, with many more orders announced but not booked this year. And the A330 is not going to suddenly stop selling. This is comparable to the 777 backlog where people are talking about production being "sold out". The A330 line is healthy for quite some time.
 
Joni
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 8:53 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 121):
If those subsidies are the only way Fuji and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries can meet Boeing's demands and no other company could meet those demands without their own subsidies, yes that is a bonus to Boeing, but Boeing would likely support higher costs if that is what it took.

Then we're in a sort of agreement: the subsidies are a substantial part of the B787's success so far.

Let's hope the sales success translates to technical success.
 
NAV20
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:27 pm

Quoting CHIFLYGUY (Reply 140):
That's a bit of an exaggeration. Airbus probably has 200 A330/A340's in its backlog, with many more orders announced but not booked this year.

Pretty well dead right, CHIFLYGUY - actually about 300 midsizes, but about 100 of those are for the 'A350 Mark One' and presumably won't happen.

But even if they press on with the A350XWB straight away, there's still likely to be a 'gap' before it comes into production, in about 2012. They're hardly likely, on recent form and given their damaged credibility, to sell A330s at a rate of 8-10 per month, which is what they'll have to do if they want to keep the midsize line going full blast until then.

And if they drop the XWB and put all their (limited) cash resources until 2010 into rescuing the A380 - which they show every sign of doing - they'll be pretty well out of the midsize market for ten years or more.

Nor will Boeing (which is assured of very strong cash flow for five years or more) be standing still - if Airbus delay that long, they'll be facing a stretched 787 AND a 777NG as well.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Lumberton
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:51 pm

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 130):
My understanding from the justplanes folk is that your statement is incorrect. They only record orders announced by airlines and not those by A or B.

You don't want to go here. Using justplanes as a source, Boeing won the 2005 orders race.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
WINGS
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 10:05 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 142):

But even if they press on with the A350XWB straight away, there's still likely to be a 'gap' before it comes into production, in about 2012. They're hardly likely, on recent form and given their damaged credibility, to sell A330s at a rate of 8-10 per month, which is what they'll have to do if they want to keep the midsize line going full blast until then.

And if they drop the XWB and put all their (limited) cash resources until 2010 into rescuing the A380 - which they show every sign of doing - they'll be pretty well out of the midsize market for ten years or more.

Nav20, I have learnt to respect your point of views, although from what has been presented previously about pending A330 orders, I believe thar your statement above will come back to haunt you in the not so distant future.

PanAm_DC10 did a wonderful job in explaining the A330 future. I don't understand why you continuously try to overlook this information. Ill post it so that you don't overlook it this time.

Quoting WINGS (Thread starter):
has a steady and rather healthy backlog and with various possible orders to come in the future.

Demand has picked up substantially over the recent year and Airbus may well be waiting for Industrial launch of the A350XWB before commencing with the launch of the A332F so that they can offer PAX slots as part of a package similar to what we saw with TAP and even JJ who need capacity well before the A350 enters service. With a backlog of approximately 160 frames we can add most of the following;

A quick look at the most recent announcements gives the following;

3 x A332 for Afriqiyah of Libya announced on July 18, 2006
12 x A332 for Grupo Marsans announced on July 19, 2006
2 x A332 for Qantas Group announced on July 27, 2006
6 x A332 for TAM announced on June 28, 2006

So there are carriers out there waiting to take frames. We can add
via leasing deals the following;

5 x A332 for Hainan Airways via ILFC
1 x A332 for KLM via ILFC announced February 22, 2006
3 x A333 for Cathay Pacific via ILFC announced December 1, 2005

Sure ILFC may have some of theirs on order and I believe that the conversion
of the A346s to A332s is to meet their requirement for Hainan. In
addition to this LH are rumoured to be getting an additional 5 A330
as part of their upcoming announcement.

This also does not include 19 x A333 for SQs "interim" lease which
was announced on July 21, 2006.

Not included in this are any frames required for the MMRT program nor any other requirements for "interim" capacity until the A350XWB enters service in 2012 some 5 years away.

After Industrial Launch of the A350XWB we should see the launch of the A332F and we know Aercap are there for 30 frames. As for an upgrade I feel Airbus will focus on the potential for a freighter coversion program, cockpit upgrade and when it comes to offering GEnx I concur with FCKC in that;


https://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/2997310

Since then we have also come across the LH order for five A333 + Transaero intention of acquiring 8.

Hopefully in hte future you will take this information into account before drawing up a doom scenario for the A330 family.

Regards,
Wings

[Edited 2006-10-14 15:07:35]
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
manni
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 10:09 pm

Quoting CHIFLYGUY (Reply 140):
Airbus probably has 200 A330/A340's in its backlog, with many more orders announced but not booked this year.

Indeed 220 orders, 27,5 months worth of full prouction in orders and atleast another 9 months in pending orders. This could (if all pending orders get firmed up) keep them busy until november 2009. Airbus will then need to cover another 3 years before it might be able to start building A350s. That would be worth about 288 orders. In the next 6 years Airbus will need sell on average 48 widebodies a year (4 a month) to let the A330/340 line run at full speed. Shouldn't be a hard task. Time to put the doom scenario's at rest. Also, let's not forget the upcoming A332F.
 
Lumberton
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 10:31 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 145):
Also, let's not forget the upcoming A332F.

And the KC-30, although the chances for selection by the USAF would improve dramatically (IMHO) if EADS were to forego additional government aid.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
CHIFLYGUY
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 10:57 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 145):

Indeed 220 orders, 27,5 months worth of full prouction in orders and atleast another 9 months in pending orders. This could (if all pending orders get firmed up) keep them busy until november 2009. Airbus will then need to cover another 3 years before it might be able to start building A350s. That would be worth about 288 orders. In the next 6 years Airbus will need sell on average 48 widebodies a year (4 a month) to let the A330/340 line run at full speed. Shouldn't be a hard task. Time to put the doom scenario's at rest. Also, let's not forget the upcoming A332F.

There's no need to run the line at full speed either, if they can arrange deliveries correctly. If Boeing was able to keep the 767 line open (still!) and the 747 line limping along while things were slow, Airbus can surely do the same with the A330/A340 line.

What's more, having a "gap" is not the issue with the 350XWB as it was for the others. The previous incarnations planned to use the same lines and tooling, whereas this new model will likely require an entirely new line anyway.
 
NAV20
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RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 11:09 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 144):
Nav20, I have learnt to respect your point of views

Cheers, WINGS - happy to return the compliment!

I'm not saying that the A330 won't sell at all - just that it won't sell in the numbers required to keep Airbus' midsize line going at full blast long enough for them to develop a model that can compete with at least some part of the 787/777 combination. Especially if they don't even START on the task of designing one.

Also worth pointing out that a high proportion of the A330 sales you instance are part of compensation deals with A380 customers like Qantas and Singapore. One doubts that those are at good prices - and one suspects also that they are subject to buybacks or similar guarantees.

I think it's also relevant (possibly even MORE relevant) that the A320 has quite suddenly stopped selling in anything like the numbers that the 737 is achieving. I honestly don't know why, but it's happening.

What it boils down to is that I suspect that Airbus management is STILL giving top priority to the A380 programme. And (if they think about their prospects in the primary single-aisle and midsize markets at all) ASSUMING that A320 and A330 sales will maintain an adequate cash flow to pay for the four years or so that it will take to get the A380 back on track. Meanwhile, the politicians of four countries are manoeuvring to make sure that they don't fire anyone for months to come, whether or not there is work for them to do.

Just happen to think that that is lousy business thinking. The likely outcome is that the A380 will run into yet FURTHER trouble, AND cost even more than they are currently estimating, and that sales across the volume market sectors will simultaneously be found to have declined to crisis point.

IMO, to put it shortly, the way Airbus is being run at present, it is in danger not just of suffering a setback - but of being brought to the brink of irretrievable failure.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
CHIFLYGUY
Posts: 133
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2006 10:14 pm

RE: Customers Back A380 To Keep Airbus Solvent

Sat Oct 14, 2006 11:52 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 148):

I think it's also relevant (possibly even MORE relevant) that the A320 has quite suddenly stopped selling in anything like the numbers that the 737 is achieving. I honestly don't know why, but it's happening.

The A320 line has a 1500 plane backlog. That probably makes getting delivery slots hard and depresses sales quite a bit. Airbus obviously pulled out all the stops to land a huge number of narrowbody orders last year, and that clearly resulted in the pull-forward of orders that otherwise would have come from 2006. Now that the 737 backlog has caught up, I'd expect relative parity to resume.

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