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atmx2000
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Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 8:29 am

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13130-2406553,00.html

Aviation sources say it is now accepted within Airbus that the A350 will not be delivered in 2012 but in late 2013 or 2014.

This will be the second aircraft in a row that Airbus has failed to deliver on time — the A380 will also be two years’ late when the first delivery is made late next year.

A spokesman for Airbus said: “Reports of a further two-year delay to the A350 programme are just speculation. With the decision on an industrial launch of the programme this year, possibly as early as the end of October, it will be possible to be more definitive then.”


The potential for further delays of the A350 is the most serious consequence of the A380 problems. It reduces the willingness of airlines and suppliers (particularly engine makers) to commit to the aircraft program.

Moreover, further delays increase the amount of time that Boeing has to optimize stretch models of the 787 and seek out appropriate engines.
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thebry
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 8:46 am

Bummer. Really a bummer. I don't think anyone could have predicted the toll the A380 would have on Airbus' overall operation. If it's frustrating for us aviation freaks (who really want to see the A380 at our home airports), imagine how it must be for the airlines, and Airbus staff. That big bird has ended several people's careers. Hopefully the investment (new technologies, processes, etc.) will pay off with future projects.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 9:39 am

Airbus has to wait on the A350XWB until they can get all their design groups "on the same page", so to speak, when it comes to CATIA and everything else.

As they also, evidently, need to figure out who gets to build what, where, this is even more important to prevent a repeat of the A380's issues.

Yes, this extends Boeing's advantage (especially with the 787-10 and whatever they can do to create a 777-300NG), but better to be late to the party, but ready to go, then late to the party and unprepared, to boot.
 
roseflyer
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 9:58 am

Wow that is a long pushback. The A320 NSR (replacement) is expected to enter in to service right about 2013 or 2014.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
ikramerica
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:15 am

Quoting Thebry (Reply 1):
I don't think anyone could have predicted the toll the A380 would have on Airbus' overall operation.

You are kidding, right?

There have been MANY people who have been saying, for years now, that the A380 program was the wrong program for Airbus to undertake, not necessarily because it would fail completely, but because it would divert attention from other sectors.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:20 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
There have been MANY people who have been saying, for years now, that the A380 program was the wrong program for Airbus to undertake, not necessarily because it would fail completely, but because it would divert attention from other sectors.

Many people here equated that to "Airbus basher"...when that wasn't even remotely the case..... no 
"Up the Irons!"
 
bringiton
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:27 am

It might be totally wrong timing in 2013-2014 specially if the -10 is pushed back to 2015-2016 , 787 would have clogged up major sales and market shares and most of the followup orders would be in favour of the 787 . If airbus wants to put a product in market 6 years after boeing then it has to have sizable advantage over the dreamliner in effeceincy and comfort to make it more atractive otherwise it becomes a equal competitor to a aircraft that has been in service for half a dozen years and has its Gliches sorted out and is earning money for airlines !! It also gives a long long time for the 7773ER to rake in orders !
 
roseflyer
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:38 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 6):
airbus wants to put a product in market 6 years after boeing then it has to have sizable advantage over the dreamliner in effeceincy and comfort to make it more atractive otherwise it becomes a equal competitor to a aircraft that has been in service for half a dozen years and has its Gliches sorted out and is earning money for airlines !! It also gives a long long time for the 7773ER to rake in orders !

Very true, but this isn't unprecedented. The 777 flew 4 years after its main competitors of the MD-11, A340 and A330 and it has outsold all of those planes.

I'm just wondering what Airbus will be doing. The A380 is in the final development, but if the A350 gets pushed back, it will push back the A320 NSR which is almost more crucial to the overall success of Airbus. The 737 RS and A320 NSR should enter service between 2012 and 2014. It would be interesting to see Airbus create two new developments at the same time on the scale of the planes that will revitalize their entire lineup.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
mymorningsong
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:42 am

Does this basically imply that the XWB will have to be a largely composite frame? What use is it to wait for better engines to make a better plane when the 787 will also be able to take advantage of those engines. I just don't see what technological advances they can make besides engines and materials in just a few years.

At what point does Airbus concede that composites are the future and head that way.
 
Halibut
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:44 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 5):
Many people here equated that to "Airbus basher"...when that wasn't even remotely the case.....

Jacobin777,
That's why I made the "Airbus Meltdown A380 the Cause NAV20 Vindicated " thread . Which by the way I can't locate or any of my past threads & replys becuase they changed how you look those things up ???

Halibut
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dz09
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:47 am

Although I can't wait to see the 380 here in the US, I don't understand the big deal about the 350. Isn't that just a modified a330?
 
jacobin777
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:51 am

Quoting Halibut (Reply 9):
Jacobin777,
That's why I made the "Airbus Meltdown A380 the Cause NAV20 Vindicated " thread . Which by the way I can't locate or any of my past threads & replys becuase they changed how you look those things up ???

I've had my fair share of people calling me an "Airbus Basher"......but my gripe has always with the A380 as a business investment...wasn't needed....
"Up the Irons!"
 
Halibut
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:54 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
but my gripe has always with the A380 as a business investment...wasn't needed....

Indeed,
That's becoming abundently clear-er every day !

Halibut
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DfwRevolution
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:55 am

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 7):
Very true, but this isn't unprecedented. The 777 flew 4 years after its main competitors of the MD-11, A340 and A330 and it has outsold all of those planes.

In that case, waiting enabled Boeing to choose a radically more efficient configuration than the trijet MD-11 and quad-jet A340.

There's nothing to suggest that the A350 will have any performance advantage over the 787 when it finally reaches service...

Quoting DZ09 (Reply 10):
I don't understand the big deal about the 350. Isn't that just a modified a330?

It began life as a warmed-over A350, which major airlines rejected.

The A350XWB amounts to an entirely new aircraft, no strings attached. But Airbus isn't persuing materials and propulsion technology as aggressivly as Boeing, so it remains to be seen how the A350 will compare to their 787 counterparts.

Quoting Mymorningsong (Reply 8):
Does this basically imply that the XWB will have to be a largely composite frame?

No, rather that the A388 has sucked a tremendous amount of resources from important projects.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 3):
The A320 NSR (replacement) is expected to enter in to service right about 2013 or 2014.

No, even before the last A380 delay it wasn't likely Boeing or Airbus would introduce a new narrowbody by 2013-2014.

I'm not aware if the latest delay effects the A320-Enhanced concept...
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bringiton
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:58 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 13):
I'm not aware if the latest delay effects the A320-Enhanced concept...

Is the A320E even a viable option now ? Considering that both boeing and airbus ( to a lesser degree) have commented on completely new airframes in the next 6-8 years or so !!

http://www.google.co.in/url?sa=U&sta...sig=__WROidD_n4qScR1du-GkJI60iHa4=

[Edited 2006-10-17 04:02:36]
 
Ken777
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 11:45 am

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 3):
The A320 NSR (replacement) is expected to enter in to service right about 2013 or 2014.

The concern is that the phrase will be changed to "The A320 NSR (replacement) WAS expected to enter in to service right about 2013 or 2014."

Right now the only safety net Airbus has on the 320 RS is the expectations that it will take a long time for the engines to be ready.

If one engine company decides to shift R&D from a 350 engine to the narrow body ranges that will change the equation for Airbus.

The worst news Airbus could get would be Boeing announcing Y1 or 737 RS shortly after the 787 maiden flight. They just might have been talking with at least one company (GE?) about pushing the new engines forward. Throw in WN, AA and a few other airlines with a lot of 737s putting a huge amount of pressure on the engine companies and the program could move ahead a year or two. Big problem for Airbus if this happens.
 
bringiton
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 11:57 am

Is there any definative info on the A320E ? other then the PDF i provided ? What are the changes they are seeking ? Where would the weight reductions come from? What engines would it use? And more importantly how far in development is the program ?? I guess it is all about timing and technology maturation , going ahead without either one would make sales look bad , the 787 is a perfect example of how boeing injected the right technology at the right time and are reaping the benifits of doing so . If the 737RS or A320RS are a bit too early then the technology might not be able to bring a lot as you dont want to be too early in the game and have the other team wait 3 years and gain a technology and performance edge similarly you dont want to be too late and have the industry keep on demanding something that you dont have to offer and have the other side capitalize with a SLIGHTLY BETTER vareint or offer technology when the Demand is jut not there !
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 11:57 am

There's a lot more in this article than just a delay to 2014:

Quote:
In order to regain the initiative, Airbus is looking at producing an all-composite A350, which would, in fact, be 70 per cent plastic, as some parts have to remain metal. According to Airbus's suppliers, the company wants to go all-composite and is talking about the equipment needed to do this.

This is a revelation. After all the talk of Lithium-Aluminium and dismissal of CFRP, check this out...

Quote:
It is thought to be looking at making the aircraft from "black aluminium"; panels of carbon fibre that would be riveted together in the same way as existing aluminium panels.

Perhaps this is why Mr. Leahy has been so quiet!  footinmouth 
I actually find this to be a bit unbelievable. Perhaps Airbus is still thinking that CFRP is easily damaged and/or difficult to repair, so they want to make the panels replaceable. I find it hard to imagine that Airbus cannot develop the technology to produce true unitary CFRP fuselage structures as Boeing is.

The genius of Boeing's approach is in efficiency of manufacture, and Airbus would be surrendering a lot by committing to a traditional monocoque structure - "black aluminium" panels riveted to stringers. Perhaps they intend to build it in China and take advantage of cheap labor. Barring that, Boeing will build Y3 using 787 production methods and likely easily beat A350 on speed of assembly and total cost of manufacture. It'll also be about 30,000 rivets lighter.
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Johnny
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 11:58 am

"The worst news Airbus could get would be Boeing announcing Y1 or 737 RS shortly after the 787 maiden flight. They just might have been talking with at least one company (GE?) about pushing the new engines forward. Throw in WN, AA and a few other airlines with a lot of 737s putting a huge amount of pressure on the engine companies and the program could move ahead a year or two. Big problem for Airbus if this happens."

No, this would be perfect for Airbus.This is what they want!

The A320/B737-market is the most important one.Whoever is first to create a successor to either the B737 OR the A320 will be the looser, because the other company just has to wait and avoid the mistakes the other did.

This is the reason why nobody wants to start such a program
 
redflyer
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 11:58 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Thread starter):
The potential for further delays of the A350 is the most serious consequence of the A380 problems.



Quoting Thebry (Reply 1):
Bummer. Really a bummer. I don't think anyone could have predicted the toll the A380 would have on Airbus' overall operation.



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
There have been MANY people who have been saying, for years now, that the A380 program was the wrong program for Airbus to undertake, not necessarily because it would fail completely, but because it would divert attention from other sectors.

Phil Condit, Boeing's former CEO, said in the mid-90's that Airbus will distract itself from other products if it goes ahead with the A380. He said it didn't make sense to invest so much money in what would amount to a niche product when the money could be better spent elsewhere. Seems he was right even though many, myself included, thought he was just making a chicken s**t excuse.

Quoting Mymorningsong (Reply 8):
Does this basically imply that the XWB will have to be a largely composite frame?

What's interesting is the article is saying Airbus will have the plane made from CFRP, but that it will be constructed in the traditional method of riveting panels (made from CFRP) together rather than rolling the entire fuselage in barrel sections. It sounds like a safer route to take than what Boeing is doing, but it definitely isn't as or more efficient a method of construction (that's assuming Boeing can pull its method of construction off successfully).

Quoting Mymorningsong (Reply 8):
What use is it to wait for better engines to make a better plane when the 787 will also be able to take advantage of those engines.

Watch it...that's sounding an awful lot like Airbus' initial reaction to the 787. "We'll simply hang the new engines on the [existing] A330 and it will be just as efficient as the 7E7" - John Leahy
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Halibut
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 12:01 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 17):
Perhaps this is why Mr. Leahy has been so quiet!
I actually find this to be a bit unbelievable. Perhaps Airbus is still thinking that CFRP is easily damaged and/or difficult to repair, so they want to make the panels replaceable. I find it hard to imagine that Airbus cannot develop the technology to produce true unitary CFRP fuselage structures as Boeing is.

The genius of Boeing's approach is in efficiency of manufacture, and Airbus would be surrendering a lot by committing to a traditional monocoque structure - "black aluminium" panels riveted to stringers. Perhaps they intend to build it in China and take advantage of cheap labor. Barring that, Boeing will build Y3 using 787 production methods and likely easily beat A350 on speed of assembly and total cost of manufacture. It'll also be about 30,000 rivets lighter.

TeamAmerica

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Halibut
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atmx2000
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 12:05 pm

Quoting Johnny (Reply 18):
The A320/B737-market is the most important one.Whoever is first to create a successor to either the B737 OR the A320 will be the looser, because the other company just has to wait and avoid the mistakes the other did.

What if they didn't make a mistake?  scratchchin 
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Stitch
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 12:08 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 19):
What's interesting is the article is saying Airbus will have the plane made from CFRP, but that it will be constructed in the traditional method of riveting panels (made from CFRP) together rather than rolling the entire fuselage in barrel sections. It sounds like a safer route to take than what Boeing is doing, but it definitely isn't as or more efficient a method of construction...

Actually it strikes me as a bit more risky, since I would think a "continuous CFRP" structure would be more structurally sound. Not to mention a heck of a lot less maintenance-intensive (something Boeing is really selling the airlines on).

Bolting CFRP panels onto an Al-Li ribs and stringer structure is just that many more things to inspect - and that many more things subject to fatigue and failure.

I wonder if Boeing's intellectual property is affecting Airbus' ability to match construction techniques?

Or is Airbus again looking to do it "quick and dirty" to get it out ASAP?
 
Johnny
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 12:22 pm

@Atmx2000
"What if they didn't make a mistake?"


Very unlikely - whoever it will be! (Or would you assume as well that Airbus could be first AND makes no mistake...? I don´t think so in your case... Wink )

If one airplane comes out one year after the other it could easily be the better product!
 
osiris30
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 12:24 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
You are kidding, right?

There have been MANY people who have been saying, for years now, that the A380 program was the wrong program for Airbus to undertake, not necessarily because it would fail completely, but because it would divert attention from other sectors.

Oh man...  checkmark  you are so right... and the worst part was people were screaming how wrong those of us who thought the 380 would drag those other areas down were...

That aside, this is just plain sad.
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osiris30
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 12:30 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
Bolting CFRP panels onto an Al-Li ribs and stringer structure is just that many more things to inspect - and that many more things subject to fatigue and failure.

I wonder if Boeing's intellectual property is affecting Airbus' ability to match construction techniques?

You're assuming those IP rights would be respected. Seeing as Airbus is in friendly territory to say the least I think it would be a tough fight to enforce that IP. (I also think if there was some game changer the other way around the same would hold)..

However, CFRP on Al-Li hasn't been done before (AFAIK).. sounds like a potential disaster.
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atmx2000
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 12:45 pm

Quoting Johnny (Reply 23):
Very unlikely - whoever it will be! (Or would you assume as well that Airbus could be first AND makes no mistake...? I don´t think so in your case...  )

They would have to make a significant mistake for it to matter. Airbus has certainly shown itself to be capable of that with the A340NG (overweight, higher drag, engine reliability problems). These mistakes shouldn't have occurred. The aircraft should not have been built. PW could see the problems in the platform and chose not to develop engines for the A340NG.

Boeing showed they could mess up coming afterwards with the 764 in terms of not delivering much of an improvement in capability, though they didn't lose too much in terms of investment.

These types of mistakes should not happen if the people running the company are doing their jobs. An exec dependent on the competition to screw up in order to succeed is putting his companies fate in the hands of the competition.
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bringiton
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 12:53 pm

Very well said . Simply put you have to rely on strength of your own buisness model and products rather then rely on the weakness of the oponents !
 
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N328KF
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 12:57 pm

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 25):
You're assuming those IP rights would be respected. Seeing as Airbus is in friendly territory to say the least I think it would be a tough fight to enforce that IP. (I also think if there was some game changer the other way around the same would hold)..

I suspect that many of the CFRP construction patents (if they are held by anyone) are held by other companies. Particularly those who construct business aircraft, or perhaps companies such as Scaled Composites.

In any case, I don't think the EU could protect Airbus over a patent of this type; The US and EU work pretty closely on patents.

The other thing is that Boeing and EADS/Airbus (as successor to many previous aviation companies) probably utilize many patents held by the other company. This sort of situation is often seen in the computer industry when companies such as IBM, Sun, and HP all utilize each others patents. Think of it as a form of mutually assured destruction; You don't sue your competitor over patents because they could get you on some as well. One company (SCO Group) made the mistake of attempting to sue IBM over patents, and has been suffering full-scale warfare as a result.

Lastly, CFRP is not a new technology. I bet some of the patents have expired or are starting to expire.

[Edited 2006-10-17 06:02:34]
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Stitch
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 1:02 pm

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 25):
You're assuming those IP rights would be respected.

The EU isn't China. To my knowledge they're signatories to the Bern Conventions and they abide by them.
 
osiris30
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 1:13 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 28):
I suspect that many of the CFRP construction patents (if they are held by anyone) are held by other companies. Particularly those who construct business aircraft, or perhaps companies such as Scaled Composites.

My point was that if IP was held by Boeing (I doubt any Boeing patents are insurmountable with respect to this construction style), it would be interesting to see what happens. Patents by and large are hard to defend anyway. I should have been more clear that I doubt Boeing has any patent lockup on the method in the first place, my bad.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 28):
This sort of situation is often seen in the computer industry when companies such as IBM, Sun, and HP all utilize each others patents.

No they don't use them freely. They cross license, as each has a portfolio big enough that they are all infringing on each other.. I suppose it's like MAD with the exception that it's not as antagonistic.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 28):
One company (SCO Group) made the mistake of attempting to sue IBM over patents, and has been suffering full-scale warfare as a result.

SCO isn't in a war because of IBM's patents. The problem that SCO and others face is proving violation and that the patent is infact valid to begin with (prior art rules, etc.)
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elvis777
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 1:50 pm

Howdy all,

It may be later than 2014

Interesting article with lots of other nifty stuff in it.

Peace

Elvis777

However, several industry officials say Airbus and EADS are reviewing whether to shift the technology base for the A350XWB from a mix of aluminum-lithium and composites to an almost all-composite fuselage, not unlike the rival 787. Such a move likely would push the in-service date for the aircraft to around 2014 or 2015, they add, but also allow EADS to rebuild its cash position in the next two years before some of the largest investments in the project are needed...."

http://aviationnow.com/avnow/news/ch...t_story.jsp?id=news/aw101606p3.xml
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NAV20
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 3:53 pm

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 31):
"Such a move likely would push the in-service date for the aircraft to around 2014 or 2015, they add, but also allow EADS to rebuild its cash position in the next two years before some of the largest investments in the project are needed...."

Turning that para. on its head, it means that the admitted loss-making production of the first 90 or so A380s will absorb all the spare cash, and that Airbus simply won't be able to afford to spend out on developing the A350XWB (or any other new model) for the next few years.

I think the worst thing Airbus could have done was fire Christian Streiff. He seems to have been an orthodox, clear-sighted businessman prepared to face the facts and do whatever was necessary. Airbus just seems to be drifting now............
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Rheinbote
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 4:08 pm

Quoting Johnny (Reply 23):
If one airplane comes out one year after the other it could easily be the better product!

Your asessment is flawed. Currently, Airbus' development cycle is ~2 years longer than Boeing's. That means Boeing may wait until A320NG configuration freeze to launch something better. Thanks to shorter development cycles, Boeing would still be first to market, with a better plane.
 
bringiton
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 4:17 pm

I dont think timeframe and "I'll wait and see " approach will get anything substantial for both airbus and boeing , Look at the XWB it offers nothing interms of technology over the 787 ( A case can be made for the 787 being more advanced in some ways) other then its size (covers more of the 777 market with the -9 and -10 then the 787 market) and it's expected EIS is 4 years later and may well be upto 6 years later if some of the new reports are to be beleived . IMO it would be about market positioning , both boeing and airbus are in a position to develop a future line of products which they would offer to airlines and there would always be products which some airlines prefer . Boeing will have the 787 and 747-8 as their 240-460 PAX range lineup with the 777 squeezed in between . I believe that we'll see a MADE OVER 787 in the 350+ market size in 2015-2020 rather then a totally new Y3 . This leaves the <240 PAX market where boeing will want a 737 replacement aswell as something that fills the void of the 757 , they will position their product range according to the areas and PAX category they want to cover and airbus will do accordingly ! We could very well see a Airbus offering which is slightly larger and wider then the boeing offering as going into the future the Airbus lineup doesnt have something that competes with the 787-8's under 250 PAX category !!
 
TSV
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 4:19 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 32):
fire Christian Streiff

I thought he "resigned"?
"I told you I was ill ..." Spike Milligan
 
777ER
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 4:22 pm

Wow, what a delay and disappointment. Maybe this could be Boeings chance to get their B737NG replacement programe advanced and if Boeing can get it out around 2013-14 then maybe Boeing could bring out an NG model of it when Airbus has firmed up the final design of its A320 replacement model. Anyone else see this happening?
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bringiton
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 4:34 pm

I think boeing will act when they have the customers telling them that they need a replacement . Having merely the technology ready without a Market demand isnt a good recipe , they will act when the technology is ripe and when the market demand - timing is optimum . As of now the main efforts for boeing should be to work on Production ramp up and to get the 787 dreamliner and the 747-8 right and deliver it on time , schedule and at cost !! After this is done they can focus attention on the 737 replacement and go on from there . By 2009-2010 ( the timeframe the 787 and 747-8 efforts would be complete) the engine manufacterers would also have a clear indication of what they can give and in what timeframe . Boeing allready went for a A FAMILY OF AIRCRAFT approach with the YELLOWSTONE program therefore they have a lot of technologies that they would master with the 747-8 and 787 programs and should be able to deliver a 737RS by around 36 -48 months after launching ( something that they claimed to want - 36 months) . this also goes with what mululy had to say at farnborough ( 2012-2014) therefore they would most likely start work in all ernest not before majority of the 747-8 work is done with !!
 
astuteman
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 4:41 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
There have been MANY people who have been saying, for years now, that the A380 program was the wrong program for Airbus to undertake, not necessarily because it would fail completely, but because it would divert attention from other sectors



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 5):
Many people here equated that to "Airbus basher"...when that wasn't even remotely the case.....



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
but my gripe has always with the A380 as a business investment...wasn't needed....

All this is all well and good, except for the fact that, if the A380 hadn't suffered any delays at all, it would have been rolling off the production lines now for 6 months, would be generating some $30m - $40m EXTRA cash per frame by next year, and almost certainly have sold many more copies than it has now , and been capable of breaking even after around 300 frames.

If there had been no delays, the XWB could easily have been in service by 2010.

The lack of business case for the A380 has by no means been proven, and sadly, because of the 2 year delay, it may never get the chance to be proven.
Delay will have killed the A380 business case, not the market fundamentals necessarily.
Market fundamentals might have done anyway, but now we'll never know.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 17):
Perhaps this is why Mr. Leahy has been so quiet!

I must be the only one who thinks that Leahy has bee up to his neck in irate customers for the last 12 months, and working 20 hour days trying to keep his customer base on line.
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe he's been sat back with a Rum and Cigar somewher in the Caribbean all year. Can't see it, though.

Regards
 
mrcomet
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 5:02 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 38):
The lack of business case for the A380 has by no means been proven, and sadly, because of the 2 year delay, it may never get the chance to be proven

While the delays have hurt the A380, sales had stalled long before then and Airbus is still relying on one airline for 40% of sales. The A380 didn't prove its case with no delays and no competition. Now its niche has shrunk, its customers angered or disappointed, its reputation hurt and still no airlines except EK have bought into it being the future of airline travel.

What really hurts the A380 is its inability to be a great cargo plane except for the package carriers. This means no conversions, little resale value and a limited life. Big airplanes must be able to carry cargo. This is a fundamental flaw.

I think, however, the niche is big enough to sell 300-500 of these birds in its lifetime. I think with the delays and the penalties, Airbus has lost any hope of profitability. What they can hope for is trying to break even.
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astuteman
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 5:39 pm

Quoting MrComet (Reply 39):
I think, however, the niche is big enough to sell 300-500 of these birds in its lifetime

Given the delays, sales of that magnitude almost certainly prove the original business case.

Quoting MrComet (Reply 39):
I think with the delays and the penalties, Airbus has lost any hope of profitability

It's hard to disagree.

Regards
 
bringiton
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 5:51 pm

I have no doubts that Airbus will make a profit over a 20-25 year lifetime of the A380 however I have my reservations as to wether those profits would be able to stand out considering what they spent on the aircraft ( 15 billion $ and counting) , the ammount and value of the market share that the 787 Appears to be taking away etc etc , on hindsight they might have done differently but they took the best discision according to them for the time !!
 
Johnny
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 6:35 pm

@ Rheinbote

I was certainly talking about a later EIS, which could provide an advantage for the later airplane.

But unfortunately you are right that Airbus needs two years longer in average than Boeing.

 Smile
 
Lumberton
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 7:23 pm

If the A350, in whatever form, is delayed until 2014/2015 is it even worth pursuing? By that time, Boeing may very well have garnered 30-40% of the market (or more, I'm being ultra conservative) and will be producing all out. If they implement a second production line and 787-10s start rollong off it in 2012, then Airbus will be spending at least 10-12 billion euros (likely much, much more) in pursuit of a rapidly diminishing market. The 787s will likely have at least a 25 year service life, so there won't be a replacement market for the 787 for sometime to come.

Even the discussion of this delay is unbelievable! There are a minority of us on this forum that think EADS should proceed, without delay, on the old A350, based on the tried and true A300/A310/A330 fuselage. They simply can't afford to let their competitor run roughshod in this vital market segment (40% of industry value per Mr. Streiff). They already proved they can win orders with it.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
TinkerBelle
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 8:33 pm

Quoting Halibut (Reply 9):
That's why I made the "Airbus Meltdown A380 the Cause NAV20 Vindicated " thread . Which by the way I can't locate or any of my past threads & replys becuase they changed how you look those things up ???

NAV20-08 for president.  biggrin 
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PolymerPlane
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 9:30 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 38):
If there had been no delays, the XWB could easily have been in service by 2010.

I disagree. XBW is slotted for 2012 EIS, even before this production mess airbus encounters. The original EIS delay of A380 was only about 6 months. That is still 4 years after 787 is in the market, on top of the fact that XBW is not competing with 787, but rather 777 which has been on the market for 15 years, and will be 20 years by the time XBW EIS.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 38):
All this is all well and good, except for the fact that, if the A380 hadn't suffered any delays at all, it would have been rolling off the production lines now for 6 months, would be generating some $30m - $40m EXTRA cash per frame by next year, and almost certainly have sold many more copies than it has now , and been capable of breaking even after around 300 frames.

I agree that A380 will be a money maker to Airbus. However, the bigger picture here is opportunity costs. One should ask a more important question: with all the resources used in A380 development, how many other family of aircraft can be designed and build, and how much money Airbus can make from those family. Considering that the development of A380 takes ~12 years (?) from first concept to roll out, I think Airbus could have finished developing 2 different families of aircraft, competing with 777 and 787 by the time A380 EIS and in full production.

Cheers,
PP
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DAYflyer
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 9:33 pm

I wonder how this will affect todays announcement by BA for bids by Airbus and Boeing for long-haul fleet replacement. I have to give Boeing the edge here due to delivery issues.
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Lumberton
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 9:55 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 46):
I wonder how this will affect todays announcement by BA for bids by Airbus and Boeing for long-haul fleet replacement. I have to give Boeing the edge here due to delivery issues

AFAIK, BA is also considering the A330.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
NYC777
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:37 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 46):
I wonder how this will affect todays announcement by BA for bids by Airbus and Boeing for long-haul fleet replacement. I have to give Boeing the edge here due to delivery issues.

Airbus won't present their proposal to BA until they have clarified the A350 situation and launched it. Right now the A350 EIS is just a rumor though it seems these days the rumors coming out of Airbus tend to have a good amount of truth to them.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
NYC777
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:57 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 38):
Maybe he's been sat back with a Rum and Cigar somewher in the Caribbean all year. Can't see it, though.

Maybe Airbus sent him off to a small Carribean Island with a lot of rum and a few girls to keep him from running his mouth.

Ok where's my broker, I want to go massively short EADS stock! I can make a killing!

[Edited 2006-10-17 16:05:24]
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.

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