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Stitch
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:01 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 99):
My point was this...The 380 has made it worse, not better.

For the time being, no argument there.  Smile
 
osiris30
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:03 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 100):
For the time being, no argument there.

Hard to argue when by Airbus's admission they won't see a profittable frame (forget program profit) till 2010ish, maybe, kinda sorta  Wink
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
dhefty
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:25 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 97):
That's the true damage the 380 has done. The $20B is one thing, but the delay in launching a 350, while the 340 and 330 get destroyed by the 777 and 787 is far more costly. (400+ orders for 787s.. that's worth alot more than $20B not matter how you slice it).

At an average selling price of $119 Million (after discounts), the 787 backlog of 402 units (at the end of September, 2006) is valued at $47.8 Billion.
 
osiris30
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:29 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 102):
At an average selling price of $119 Million (after discounts), the 787 backlog of 402 units (at the end of September, 2006) is valued at $47.8 Billion.

Thanks. I ball parked $100M because I was lazy LOL.. kinda irrelevant, as we're talking about ~$40-~$50B in lost revenue potential. Even if we figure Airbus would have won only half of that, that's still the $20B *again* ontop of the sunk $20B to design/build the 380..

That's a pretty major swing.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
scouseflyer
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:31 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 99):
Tied up valuable produciton space with the 380

.......that they built especially for the A380..........
 
Rheinbote
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:41 am

Quoting Jdevora (Reply 93):
* The A340 was designed with different engines in mind and the engine manufacturer didn't deliver those.

Oh yes, the IAE SuperFan that wasn't meant to be. Ultra-high bypass engines were pretty much en vogue at that time. I also remember CRISP (Counter-Rotating Integrally-Shrouded Prop-fan), a demonstrator of which spectacularly disintegrated while running in a windtunnel...
 
Rheinbote
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:50 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 94):
Boeing will be spending around 8 billion $ on the 787 , another possible 6-8 billion on the Y1 about 4 billion on the 747-8 program and at the end of the day would be totaling to around 20 billion for 3 aircraft families out of which 2 will see 4 digit sales . Come to think of it if you peg the cost of a bigger 787-11 at around 4 billion or so with a considerable redesign and additions you could end up in a situation where boeing can replace their entire fleet and product line for less then what it would cost Airbus to develop the A380 and A350XWB , It is clear to see where the economics lie .

Holy sh*t that even exceeds the worst-case scenarios I have been considering for the past three years. 8bn for the 787...would that encompass all three versions -3, -8, -9?
 
bringiton
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:59 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 106):
8bn for the 787...would that encompass all three versions -3, -8, -9?

That is what I have heard from the members over here at A.net , the figures that usually come up usually reflect either a 8 billion total Dev. cost of which boeing will foot the bill for about 6 billion or so or 10 billion in dev. cost out of which boeing will take about 8 billion or so . I have gone in for the latter which is higher so as to be on the safe side of things . The reason i put a 4 billion dollar tag on the 787-11 was because i assumed the worst case scenario where boeing has to increase the size and capacity of the jet so as to warrant more changes then a normal strech would cost them , again i can add another billion to that to be on the safe side which leaves us with around 26 billion dollars spent to deveop the 787 family , the 787-11 , 747-8F and I as well as the 737RS while airbus spends 15 billion ( again this is not including the latest losses but only includes the 12 billion euro design cost befor the delays) and 10 billion claimed for the XWB which ammounts to 25 billion dollars for 2 aircraft family which doesnt include the losses and overhead costs over and above the 12 billion euro development estimate for the A380 which could add up to another 2 billion or so .
 
Rheinbote
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 3:09 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 107):
That is what I have heard from the members over here at A.net , the figures that usually come up usually reflect either a 8 billion total Dev. cost of which boeing will foot the bill for about 6 billion or so or 10 billion in dev. cost out of which boeing will take about 8 billion or so . I have gone in for the latter which is higher so as to be on the safe side of things .

My question wasn't meant as a criticism - not at all. I'd tend to go with the lower figures.
 
osiris30
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 3:40 am

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 104):
.......that they built especially for the A380..........

It's space that could have been otherwise used is my point. Whether it was new build or just land, it's prime area that could be "Better" used elsewhere.

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 107):
The reason i put a 4 billion dollar tag on the 787-11

Better to allocate that money to a new 777 with 787 like features. I don't think Boeing will scale the 787 up that high for product differentiation reasons. But that's a minor detail. The point stands (although I feel the Y1 price is a bit low honestly, depending on how radical they go with it, then again I think the 787 is too high, so it's a wash).
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
bringiton
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 4:13 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 109):
But that's a minor detail. The point stands (although I feel the Y1 price is a bit low honestly, depending on how radical they go with it, then again I think the 787 is too high, so it's a wash

I used one scenario where they make these changes however we can well calculate other scenarios . For example - Lets assume 7 billion on the 787 , 10 billion on Y1 ( high side for something radical) , 4 billion for 747-8IandF and say 7-8 billion for 777 replacement . That gives us 28-29 billion dollars of developmental cost (estimate ) . Lets now look at the market for this -

737RS(Y1) - Atlest 6K ( lower no. market size)
787/777ng/Y3 - around 4K ( boeing expects 3000-3500 for 787 sized market alone so i'll asume something around 2500 for the 787 and around 1500 for Y3 or 777NG sized market)
747-8 - around 500-800 ( This is the market size that is much less then the airbus and boeing VLA claim but i am taking a lower no. on both sides )

This is a total of 10,000-11,000 aircraft market size ( which i consider as a decent and not too overly optimistic market size - although other members might)

Lets look at the Airbus $$

A380 costs a minimum of 15 billion dollars to develop with a higher figure of around 17 billion but i am assuming a 15 billion $ to be on the safe side . The A350 is estimated to cost 10 billion $ according to most claims . That is a total of atleast 25 billion $ and a good case can be made to add another 1 -2 billion over and above this due to 380 delays however i wont do so to be on the safe side . The market according to me is as follows ( I try to use some of the safest market figures rather then what i beleive as i beileve they would be appealing to majority of folks here )

A380 - 800-1000 for a market size

A350 - Around 3000- ( remember the A350 doesnt compete against the -8 , 787 )

This makes a market the size of roughly 4000 aircraft depending upon most widely believed estimates !!

The economic dynamics according to me favour Boeing consideably as they dont have to spend the extra 15 billion dollars - 4 that airbus yet they compete in more MARKETS !!

NOTE- the reason why i put the 747-8 market size about 40% lower was because i dont believe that the 747-8 would compete against all the possible sales for the VLA market and would only compete with perhaps 50% of the market structure .

Now lets see where we are going with the sales so far -

-Out of the projected 800 or so VLA market boeing has gotten about a 5% share allready with the -8 family of aircrafts while A380 has something like 20% share allready clogged up . IMO boeing will take roughly 25% of the VLA market basically due to the freighter rather then anything else which leaves them with something like 200-250 orders while leaving A380 with something like 500-600 orders for the A380 .

- Out of the combined 787/350/777/y3 market of around 4000 boeing allready has something like 11% market share clogged up and counting , I'd give the 787-8 something like 600 orders over its life as there is no direct competitor from the next generation ( it has close to half of that allready IIRC) . This leaves airbus competing for about 74% of the market and IMO they will split the remaining market 60:40 with boeing ( boeing according to most people I have heard from or seen have a advantage with the 787 offering availability while the 350 not even being launched yet ) which gives a total of around 1800 jets for boeing with around 1200 jets for airbus And i do so considering and assuming that there is no Y3 competing till well after 350-10EIS whenever that may occur ( 2014 or 2015 or 2016 ) . So the total dynamical outlook of the mid sized market IMO should be around 2800 to 1200 in favour of boeing !!

- The 737RS will go unchallenged here If we are to stick to the same DEV cost of around 25-29/30 billion dollars or so therefore we would have to assume that Airbus pumps in about 10 billion dollars into the A320RS which further makes my point that witht he NG of aircraft the economy really lies with boeing in charting and fashioning a product line !! This would obviously be totally irrelevent if Airbus offers much better products and beats boeing hands down on no.s to make up for the extra 10-12 billion it would be spending for its product line !!

I know some might not like my figures and sometimes i dont agree with them but my point was to make the figures acceptable to the widest possible audiance !


OPINIONS WELCOMED !!
 
osiris30
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 4:24 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 110):
OPINIONS WELCOMED !!

Frankly, anything is possible. At the end of the day Airbus is getting less bang of their bucks based on what *they* have said publically. So just how much Boeing gets for the same $ value is almost irrelevant.

What is relevant is that with their (obviously) much lower R&D cost structure than Airbus (which is an area I don't expect to change too much to be honest) Boeing has a significant cost advantage that can be translated into pricing.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
ikramerica
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 7:55 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 89):
That being said, it has only been a couple of years though where the 777 series has obliterated the A340 series in terms of sales, up until then, the A340 series had been doing well...

But that's the point. Did Airbus even have a strategy? Did they do all that work on the 345/6 for a couple years of sales, and then to drop off the end of the earth with no product to fill the gap for 10 years? Honestly?

Look at my point about the 335/6 concept. They didn't want to take the risk or worry about innovation. They suffered. That's the reality...

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 91):
While it became clear now that the A3456 was only good for 5-10 years at best, no preparations were taken to have a replacement on hand.

And honestly, the replacement should have been what the 345/6 was in the first place.

Quoting Jdevora (Reply 93):
* At that time there wasn't an engine strong enough for create a 2 engines A340.

At the time the 777 launched, there wasn't either. Boeing took a risk and requested one be built, betting their future on it.

At the time of the 345/346 launch, there wasn't an engine as powerful as the soon to be launched GE90-115. But again, Boeing asked that one be built, airbus just asked for an improved off the shelf design for the A340.

And again with the 787, Boeing asked that a new generation of engine be built. Airbus didn't have the foresight or the will.

They've innovated a lot of things, but recently, not so much.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 97):
The 340 is older than the 777. Airbus's mistake was how they chose to respond (limited, poorly thought out offerings, or no response at all).

Very true. Or more specifically, they focused on the wrong derivative for the future.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 8:17 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 110):
I'd give the 787-8 something like 600 orders over its life as there is no direct competitor from the next generation ( it has close to half of that allready IIRC) . This leaves airbus competing for about 74% of the market and IMO they will split the remaining market 60:40 with boeing ( boeing according to most people I have heard from or seen have a advantage with the 787 offering availability while the 350 not even being launched yet ) which gives a total of around 1800 jets for boeing with around 1200 jets for airbus

Your math is off. If the total market is 3000 frames and Boeing already has taken 400 (not 300) with Airbus thereafter taking 40%, the end totals are Boeing with 1960 and Airbus with 1040. That's an overall split of 65:35 in favor of Boeing; quite illustrative of the consequences of being late to market.

 point  I've said this before: Airbus could have been better off continuing with the A330 derivative. Much cheaper to develop, much earlier EIS, lower sales price, and I think it could have taken 35% of the market just as XWB may do. It's not too late! They could still do it, but it would require swallowing their pride and making a business decision.

If Airbus can't deliver A350 before 2014, they would be better off conserving their resources and focusing on the all-important A320 replacement. Just as A380 has distracted them from A350, there is a danger that A350 will distract them from A320RS.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
osiris30
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 9:37 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 112):
They've innovated a lot of things, but recently, not so much.

And when Airbus was, they were making in roads. Now that they aren't and Boeing is.. well... just look at the order books.. nuff said.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 113):
I've said this before: Airbus could have been better off continuing with the A330 derivative. Much cheaper to develop, much earlier EIS, lower sales price, and I think it could have taken 35% of the market just as XWB may do. It's not too late! They could still do it, but it would require swallowing their pride and making a business decision.

Probably a realistic assessment. Soak up the 'sympathy' votes from airlines (i.e. frames that will go Airbus regardless) and do it as fast and cheap as humanly possible. But nah.. let's burn $10B (++) and build something from scratch for another questionable 'strategy'. Going after the 777 with a plane that is only a few years before you'll see the 777's replacement take to the sky is foolish (and a few years before the peak of the 777 replacement cycle).

See here's something Boeing finally figured out.. replacement cycle timing. Think about it.. 767->787, 744->748, 777->??? (I'm omitting 73xs and 32xs because there are so many they are ALWAYS being replaced).
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
ikramerica
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 9:52 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 114):
(I'm omitting 73xs and 32xs because there are so many they are ALWAYS being replaced).

With most airlines of any age, they look like they are skipping a generation, so there is still a cycle.

Airlines aren't looking to replace 737NG and A320s (1990's and later) with 737RS/A320NG. They are looking to replace MD80s, 737Classics, and 1980's A320s. But there is always some overlap (some airlines dumping the earliest MD80s or small fleets for A320s or 737NGs).
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
osiris30
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 9:54 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 115):
With most airlines of any age, they look like they are skipping a generation, so there is still a cycle.

Yes, but my point was more along the lines of.. there's so many that who cares if you miss a cycle.. they are ALWAYS being bought. You may lose a little, but not like with the widebodys.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 10:02 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 114):
See here's something Boeing finally figured out.. replacement cycle timing. Think about it.. 767->787, 744->748, 777->???

What about DC10/L1011 > 777-200ER and 747-200 > 777-300 and 747-400 > 777-300ER and 757 > 727 and 737-300 > 737-200.

Would seem that timing isn't something that Boeing have missed too much in the past.

Cheers
 
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N328KF
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 10:06 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 114):
See here's something Boeing finally figured out.. replacement cycle timing. Think about it.. 767->787, 744->748, 777->??? (I'm omitting 73xs and 32xs because there are so many they are ALWAYS being replaced).

I don't think that Boeing "figured it out" as it is just a sign of the industry reaching maturity. If you think about it in a generational sense (20 years), it is just that we are nearing the 40 year anniversary of the introduction of the concept of widebody airliners. The last such replacement cycle began in the late 1980s, and the one before that was the initial development.
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
-Donny Miller
 
jacobin777
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 10:11 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 112):
But that's the point. Did Airbus even have a strategy? Did they do all that work on the 345/6 for a couple years of sales, and then to drop off the end of the earth with no product to fill the gap for 10 years? Honestly?

I'm going to agree with you on this.....I doesn't seem if they had a strategy....

They also believed that nothing was going to come in the way of an "A330-killer"...

I still think had kerosene prices not go up, they would have had decent sales of the A345/346.....that, along with the fact the A32X and A33X series were selling in healthy numbers led Airbus to believe that they will overtake Boeing for a long time...

As I said, if anything, this has been a MAJOUR learning lesson in "modesty"...but I'm sure once the new A350 comes out (official launch), we'll see Leahy going at it again.....
"Up the Irons!"
 
osiris30
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 10:15 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 118):
I don't think that Boeing "figured it out" as it is just a sign of the industry reaching maturity. If you think about it in a generational sense (20 years), it is just that we are nearing the 40 year anniversary of the introduction of the concept of widebody airliners. The last such replacement cycle began in the late 1980s, and the one before that was the initial development.

N328KF, you're perfectly correct ofcourse. It is a no brainer that you don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out. However one has to wonder how Airbus missed it all so badly?!?
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
bringiton
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:08 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 113):
Your math is off. If the total market is 3000 frames and Boeing already has taken 400 (not 300) with Airbus thereafter taking 40%, the end totals are Boeing with 1960 and Airbus with 1040. That's an overall split of 65:35 in favor of Boeing; quite illustrative of the consequences of being late to market

True but what i Did was factor in the 777NG/Y3 and the A350XWB aswell to compete with each other into the future so the market for the combined was put safely on the 4000 mark out of which i believe that 1000 or near abouts are surely to go to boeing because 450 aprox orders have allready been booked and i expect that the 787-8 to sell around 600 withouth a viable competitor , simply because i factor in the 787-8 market at around 800-900 out of the 4000 aircraft out of which 600 are taken by the -8 with the rest going to airbus . Therefore we are left with the remaining 3000 to deal with out of which even if ther is a 60:40 split we end up with 1800 for boeing and 1200 for airbus taking the total to 2800 for boeing and a total of 1200-1600 odd for airbus .
 
dank
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:29 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 119):
I'm going to agree with you on this.....I doesn't seem if they had a strategy....

They also believed that nothing was going to come in the way of an "A330-killer"...

I still think had kerosene prices not go up, they would have had decent sales of the A345/346.....that, along with the fact the A32X and A33X series were selling in healthy numbers led Airbus to believe that they will overtake Boeing for a long time...

 checkmark  Have to concur with that. I'm still intrigued to see how the whole Yellowstone strategy works out. It isn't clear to me that they way Boeing originally envisioned it is going to be the way it comes out (i.e., I see four planes covering the entire range, not three, unless they bail on Y3 and just extend the 787 out to the low end of that space)... Time will tell. It sounded great when I first read it, but then the 787 kind of creeped up and left a gap at the low end... But either way, it is a lot better strategy than Airbus has shown (but, i think that lack of strategy is most glaring in the 350 space, not the 345/346 space, where I think with the data at hand, it seemed a reasonable upgrade). It's just some times you have to cut your losses and spend more upfront to create a new product rather than throwing money in pieces to upgrade an older product. Of course, the key is to know when to pull that trigger, and with products that have slow development cycles and high costs... Goes back to that element of good luck. You have to be smart and have some good luck and timing (I sometimes go back to the notion that you see a lot of brilliant scientists who have that one great discovery and then spend their careers trying to hit the next one, and failing miserably; clearly not just a function of intelligence).

Cheers.
 
CWFan
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 3:59 pm

Two things:

1. Doesn't Leahy's memo from last Decemeber (the memo that leaked out and Leahy was flogging Airbus leadership to respond to the 787) seem pretty spot on? Leahy's warnings seem pretty prophetic about now, 10 months later.

Quoting Dank (Reply 122):
Have to concur with that. I'm still intrigued to see how the whole Yellowstone strategy works out.

2. I agree, Dank. I'm not quite sure how Y3 really fits in anymore, given what seems like a significant investment in the new 747-8. I understand the business case for the 747-8: sells great as a freighter (maybe enough to fund the whole program); minimal investment to keep pricing pressure on the 380; at least some airlines seem to want it. So Boeing isn't sticking to some pre-set script, but is listening to its customers. Great, that's what you'd expect from a business run by a former GE guy (and former GE Engines CEO, to boot).

But how many years of SALES life does the 747-8 really have before Y3 comes on line? And, when Y3 is announced (~6 years before EIS), one would assume 747-8 orders dry up, except maybe for the bulk cargo haulers. Well...wait a second...I might have convinced myself here. So, if Y3 is announced in 10 years (2016), then the 747-8i will be on sale for 9 years (assuming launch of 747-8i in 2007). And some orders may dribble in for a while even after Y3 is launched, with an EIS around 2022?

Sound about right? I could be way off on Y3 launch, but it does seem pretty far away. Boeing needs to get 787 out the door and launch the 737RS before it will get down to Y3.

-CWFan
 
bringiton
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 4:07 pm

I dont think that a case seiously exists to fund and develop the Y3 now or into the forceable future . The 787 is selling very fast and so is the 777 most of the 777's wont need replacement for some time and i seriously believe that the 787,350,747-8 combo can seriously eat into most of the market for the Y3 making it not worth the time and money for this generation until and unless we see airlines really want a 375-550 PAX effecient airliner and which cannot be made up by extending the 787 to say a expensive but possible (?) -11 varient as Zvezda and others talk of !!

[Edited 2006-10-19 09:13:37]
 
PEK18R36L
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 10:59 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
The EU isn't China. To my knowledge they're signatories to the Bern Conventions and they abide by them.

To clarify - the PRC is a signatory to the Berne Conventions, and as part of their protocols for WTO accession also adopted TRIPS.

The problem in China is enforcement, but as recent case law has demonstrated, if the stakes are large enough and the value of the IP large enough, China will enforce and prosecute violations.

It's far from perfect here, but over time it's less and less the IP free-for-all it once was.

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 87):
Why do Airbus need a new aircraft to compete against the Cheap Chinese made plastic version of A330 ??

 Big grin

It would help if the Chinese could come up with a version (any kind) of an ERJ first...

David
In China, everything is possible - but nothing is easy.
 
bringiton
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Thu Oct 19, 2006 11:14 pm

Quoting PEK18R36L (Reply 125):
It would help if the Chinese could come up with a version (any kind) of an ERJ first

Actually that was a Quote from Leahy when he commented on what he thought of the 7E7 some time back !!



Quote:
He later called the 7E7 a "Chinese copy" of Airbus' A330

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Leahy
 
charvett
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Fri Oct 20, 2006 12:23 am

Dear Fellows:


I INSIST!!!! Why not to refine and upgrade the A-330. A proven
and very nice airframe.
 
airfrnt
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RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Fri Oct 20, 2006 2:36 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 38):

I must be the only one who thinks that Leahy has bee up to his neck in irate customers for the last 12 months, and working 20 hour days trying to keep his customer base on line.

Did anyone else just get a image of John Leahy in a coonskin hat with a rifle on top of the Alamo calling out Santa Ana?

Just me? Okay.

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 87):
Cheap Chinese made plastic version of A330 ??

I bet that if there was any one thing that someone in the aviation industry could take back, it might be that line.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 61):

Here's a thought, though. It's entirely possible that a new mid-sized widebody developed by Airbus in the timeframe of the A380 would have been completely eclipsed by the 787 (not to mention compromising the then fairly new A330), and Airbus might have been in a tighter spot than if the A380 had gone according to plan.

To be completely fair to Airbus, Airbus has gotten killed by timing constraints that Boeing has (in retrospect) benefited from. That's a bit weird given that Boeing was far more exposed in 2000 then Airbus, was, but shows you how good of a job Mullally did pulling down production and changing programs.

9/11 and SARS permanently changed the US market, and made a huge impact world wide.

As for products, Airbus was really hamstrung by the introduction and cost of the A330 and A340 once the 777 was introduced. I guess that a better capital investment would have been to try and improve on the A340. Airbus did that, and still got a bit squished with the 346.

So your point has a lot of validity, I am not sure what a better path for Airbus would hae been.
 
bringiton
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:24 am

RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Fri Oct 20, 2006 2:45 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 128):
I bet that if there was any one thing that someone in the aviation industry could take back, it might be that line.

Or what the same person said later when he commented that because the A330 has allready recovered developmental cost it would outsell and destroy the 787 because it would be cheaper by around 10-12% or so !!
 
TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Fri Oct 20, 2006 2:52 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 128):
I bet that if there was any one thing that someone in the aviation industry could take back, it might be that line.

The "black aluminum" comment might take precedence, if the rumors regarding the A350 are true.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
jdevora
Posts: 227
Joined: Tue Aug 08, 2006 4:41 am

RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Fri Oct 20, 2006 9:49 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 101):
Hard to argue when by Airbus's admission they won't see a profittable frame (forget program profit) till 2010ish, maybe, kinda sorta Wink

My understanding was that said the first few frames.

Where can I read that it will be until 2010?

Cheers
JD
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Fri Oct 20, 2006 11:06 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 122):
but, i think that lack of strategy is most glaring in the 350 space, not the 345/346 space

 checkmark 
"Up the Irons!"
 
osiris30
Posts: 2681
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

RE: Rumored Delay Of The A350 To Late 2013 Or 2014

Fri Oct 20, 2006 11:41 am

Quoting Jdevora (Reply 131):
Where can I read that it will be until 2010?

You could have listened to their conference call they held when the announced the new delays and outright stated that the 380 will not have a positive impact on earnings until 2010 sometime.

Try googling it.. I would but I'm tired (and lazy  Wink )
... ah screw it.. here... read away:

Quote:

EADS says A380 jet to be delayed a year

By LAURENCE FROST, AP Business Writer
Tue Oct 3, 5:44 PM ET

...
The defense group confirmed that it now expects to make a loss on some of the Airbus A380 sales contracts, warning of a 600 million euros ($760 million) charge this year to cover those losses. The A380 program will not generate positive operating earnings until 2010, EADS predicted.

http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:...10+profit&hl=en&gl=ca&ct=clnk&cd=1

Forgive the google cache of it.. yahoo news doesn't go very deep.

Now granted we might be arguing symantecs of what makes a 'profittable frame'.. but if we are then I'll cave and agree with you because I'm not getting into a wording pissing match. Either way the 380 program won't show a profit till 2010, which as far as I'm concerned means that every frame that leaves the line takes cash with it. (note the use of OPERATIONAL PROFIT, not PROGRAM PROFIT, capped for emphasis, not yelling  Wink )
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)

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