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keesje
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Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 8:04 am

Amid all the articles of Airbus receiving blows, Boeing having chosen the right direction etc., we could almost forget what has been happening bottom line:


Airbus will outproduce Boeing again in 2006, 2007 and probably also in 2008.

Not the impression the average a.net browser would get IMO.

- Airbus outsold Boeing dramatically last year in the NB segment and will probably do so again in 2006. The A320 Enhanced program seems a save guard this trend for the next 5-7 yrs. The 737-900ER is a great new version of the 737NG familiy but IMO 8? years late.

- The mid segment, well Boeing has received a silent blow here. The 787 is selling great but will arrive very late, the 767 is on oxygen support for yrs. Avoided / neglected in most press stories; http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...B-AB233_Asia_J_20060511190625.gif, the 2000-2008 period is really the A330 era. In 7-8 yrs A330 (with new engines?) will be be replaced by the XWB. A new customer can´t get many 787s before that time anyway.

Don´t be surprised if Airlines like BA, UAL, Aeroflot and Asian carriers order A330´s. Many might like the 787 but just can´t afford to wait for 7 years to replace 767 / A300´s/ M11s / DC10´s. Add to that the A330F..

- The 777 is a great aircraft. However the best selling 777-200ER has nearly stopped selling. The 777-300ER has outsold the A340-600 but its >2010 future looks bleak if A350 forecast become half truth. The 772F is selling well but in competition with low cost (converted) alternatives.

- In the VLA segment (both Boeing and Airbus both have upped their forecasts lately) the A380 rules, even long delays haven´t tempted airlines to order a single 747-adv/-8i.

The 747-8F is a great freighter, however the cargo market isn´t as profitable as the passenger market (a 744 F conversion :$60 mil..) If the 747-8 becomes a sole freighter family Boeing will have an expensive first in this respect.

Airbus is facing some problems right now but I have the feeling the (US) press is getting carried away a bit and I´m always happy to offer a little perspective

 Wink
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
elvis777
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 8:24 am

Hi Keesje!!!

How have you been? Well I hope!

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Amid all the articles of Airbus receiving blows, Boeing having chosen the right direction etc., we could almost forget what has been happening bottom line:

That is nice Keesje. No need to worry on your side then. That is great news for you!. Congrats. That power8 thing and the changes at the top and the other stuff is just a smoke screen. The king does have clothes!!!! Ok., so I don’t happen to agree but there is lots of room in the world for two opinions, don’t you think. So my question is if things look so great to the worlds largest plane manufacturer why not be a duck and let the opinions of us poor cretins fall of your back like water? Ok, ok., I still remember your post on the 380. You can be an eagle if you'd like. So if nasty, evil , mean spirited things are written- not only in the us papers, you forget how many european sources have been of late not too fond of your eads (so to speak)- of course once they see that nifty plot they will see the error of their ways and start to say really nice things about eads!

You gotta develop a bit tougher skin in my opinion eads supporters. All this sniffling and complaining about how a multibillion- largest plane producer in the world- is getting bad mouthed in a silly plane forum does not befit a corporation of this stature. Besides as you so kindly put with your perspective things are swell at eads. No worries you will continue to be the largest plane manufacturer in the world for quite a long time!

Oh yeah as far as your perspective, I am sure other unkind mean, eads hating, unsupportive, nasty, hurtful members will point out a couple of errors in your logic but don’t let them see you get hurt. Just go to bed content in the knowledge that the BEST decisions have and will be taken at eads and that eagle like aircraft will continue to reign supreme over our beloved skies.

Hey, those haters, unappreciative, newspapers and other media sources will receive their comeuppance and you and a few others will be vindicated....

Or not.

I happen to like my guys chances ( I cant wait to get a response questioning why I call Boeing my guys... jeez!), actually.

Okie dokie Keesje, have a real cool day (night)! Thanks again for putting us straight with the proper perspective. I mean that. I really really do!

Peace

Elvis777
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TeamAmerica
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 8:39 am

Well...thanks for the perspective, Keesje, but I don't see that the press (US or otherwise) is getting carried away. Some rebuttals:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Airbus will outproduce Boeing again in 2006, 2007 and probably also in 2008.

Production numbers don't tell us anything. It's revenue that matters.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Airbus outsold Boeing dramatically last year in the NB segment and will probably do so again in 2006.

Airbus is not likely to "dramatically" outsell Boeing this year. We'll see.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The mid segment, well Boeing has received a silent blow here.

B.S. The 787 is nothing less than the best-selling midsize airliner ever. No tears from Boeing.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Don´t be surprised if Airlines like BA, UAL, Aeroflot and Asian carriers order A330´s.

I don't agree with your list of carriers, but do agree that the A330 will continue to sell.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The 777-300ER has outsold the A340-600 but its >2010 future looks bleak if A350 forecast become half truth.

We have yet to see what Boeing does with reducing the weight and the cost of the 777. The 300ER is not really threatened until the A350-1000 comes close to EIS, and that will be much later than 2010. I agree that the 777 must be faced with declining sales, but it's no more "dead" than the A330 is at this point.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
In the VLA segment (both Boeing and Airbus both have upped their forecasts lately) the A380 rules, even long delays haven´t tempted airlines to order a single 747-adv/-8i.

A phyrric victory for Airbus. Those upped forecasts show no signs of being correct, and I'm not much surprised by the lack of sales for the B748i so far. I believe they will sell some, but not many. It will be interesting to watch the next ten years or so and see if the A380 actually outsells B748 (all versions).

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The 747-8F is a great freighter, however the cargo market isn´t as profitable as the passenger market (a 744 F conversion :$60 mil..) If the 747-8 becomes a sole freighter family Boeing will have an expensive first in this respect.

I think you overestimate the cost to develop the B748. I don't believe it will prove very profitable, but breakeven on the total project seems virtually assured. If money is not lost, then "expensive" is not quite an appropriate word.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
brendows
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Li

Thu Nov 23, 2006 8:50 am

Hi Keesje wave 

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 1):
How have you been? Well I hope!

I've been wondering on the same thing my self, Keesje has been so silent lately yes 

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
the 2000-2008 period is really the A330 era. In 7-8 yrs A330 (with new engines?) will be be replaced by the XWB. A new customer can´t get many 787s before that time anyway.

About 500+ 787s will have been delivered by 2014, I wouldn't call such a figure not that many no 

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The 777-300ER has outsold the A340-600 but its >2010 future looks bleak if A350 forecast become half truth.

I wouldn't be to sure about that. Yes, the A350-1000 will have much better economics than the 77W, but as the A350XWB is today, it won't offer the payload/range capabilities as the 77W, nor will it be as large.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The 772F is selling well but in competition with low cost (converted) alternatives.

A bit too early for that, and, more importantly, converted 772As or 772ERs can't lift as much payload and/or carry it as long as the 772F. The 772F will sell very well.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
- In the VLA segment (both Boeing and Airbus both have upped their forecasts lately) the A380 rules, even long delays haven´t tempted airlines to order a single 747-adv/-8i.

Wait a year, and things may have changed pretty much, the 748i has just gone through a redesign, and will be tweaked during the coming months. Time will tell whether the A380 or the 748i will rule.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The 747-8F is a great freighter, however the cargo market isn´t as profitable as the passenger market (a 744 F conversion :$60 mil..) If the 747-8 becomes a sole freighter family Boeing will have an
expensive first in this respect.

The cargo market isn't as profitable as the passenger market, what makes you say that?

Otherwise:
yes, you are correct, Airbus is nowhere near as doomed as many have said, they have a huge backlog, at least when it comes to NBs, but when it comes to their future projects, the future doesn't look that bright at the moment. But, things might change, it does sooner or later  Smile
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 8:51 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Airbus is facing some problems right now but I have the feeling the (US) press is getting carried away a bit and I´m always happy to offer a little perspective

Perhaps Leahy shouldn't comment, if Airbus doesn't want to be in the US press.

Cheers...

Quote

Leahy said Airbus had taken firm orders for 619 planes so far this year, or 43 percent of the two rivals' combined total. Airbus continues to target a market share between 40 percent and 60 percent, he said.

In terms of catalog value, however, he acknowledged that Airbus' share of new business had slipped further to reach "35 to 37 percent" this year. While Airbus has been ahead in the single-aisle plane market, thanks to the popularity of its A320, Boeing increasingly dominates the higher-value market for larger aircraft.

Airbus set an industry record last year with a total of 1,111 orders, compared with Boeing's 1,002. But its share by value fell to 45 percent, from 54 percent in 2004, as its widebody A330, A340 and planned A350 planes lost ground to Boeing's 777 and 787 "Dreamliner" -- set to enter service in 2008.
 
OU812
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 8:59 am

Airbus New Order Share Value Shrink To 36 % In 06'
http://www1.airliners.net/discussion...eneral_aviation/read.main/3110086/

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/4353911.html

Nov. 22, 2006, 10:15AM
Airbus share of new orders shrinks


By LAURENCE FROST AP Business Writer

PARIS — Airbus unvelied a bullish long-term forecast for global aircraft sales on Wednesday but said its share of new orders by value has shrunk to about 36 percent this year from 45 percent last year, as rival Boeing Co. grabbed more sales for mid-size and larger jets.
 
B2707SST
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 9:01 am

Keesje, you often provide accurate if clearly pro-Airbus perspective, but this smells more like desperation...

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Airbus will outproduce Boeing again in 2006, 2007 and probably also in 2008.

Notice there is one and only one source on this graph: Airbus.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Airbus outsold Boeing dramatically last year in the NB segment and will probably do so again in 2006. The A320 Enhanced program seems a save guard this trend for the next 5-7 yrs. The 737-900ER is a great new version of the 737NG familiy but IMO 8? years late.

How can the A320 Enhanced safeguard this trend when it doesn't exist yet? The winglet program that was supposed to account for half of the A320E's efficiency gains failed. That leaves it with a 2-3% fuel burn improvement -- not bad, but hardly a 737NG-killer.

Also note that Boeing and Airbus' order totals for 2005 were very similar, so if Airbus dramatically outsold them on narrowbodies, Boeing made up the difference on much more expensive and profitable widebodies. I'm sure that's a situation Boeing would be happy to repeat in 2006, and so far, they are.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The mid segment, well Boeing has received a silent blow here. The 787 is selling great but will arrive very late, the 767 is on oxygen support for yrs. Avoided / neglected in most press stories; http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...B-AB233_Asia_J_20060511190625.gif, the 2000-2008 period is really the A330 era. In 7-8 yrs A330 (with new engines?) will be be replaced by the XWB. A new customer can´t get many 787s before that time anyway.

While it's true that the A330-200 hit 767 sales hard, the 767 had many years of dominance over the A300/A310 and orders really only dried up after 2001. The 787 could have come a few years earlier, but compare that to the A330/A340 situation: the A340 is now all but dead and the wind has been taken out of the A330's sails after only about 10 good years.

In addition, if the 787 is late, what does that make the A350 Mark VII or whatever iteration we're on now? The A330 was a great product, but the A340 has been lukewarm at best and the A340NGs have all but surrendered the market to the 777LRs. If anything, Airbus should have skipped over the A340NG and built a real widebody twin to compete with the 777. Instead, they are now faced with replacing their entire 200-400+ seat product line with a single family. This would be a tall order even in the best of times, and Airbus hasn't inspired a lot of confidence lately.

We haven't even touched on what would happen if Boeing opens a second 787 line in 2010 or so...

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The 777 is a great aircraft. However the best selling 777-200ER has nearly stopped selling. The 777-300ER has outsold the A340-600 but its >2010 future looks bleak if A350 forecast become half truth. The 772F is selling well but in competition with low cost (converted) alternatives.

The 772ER has been replaced by the 773ER as the best-selling 777 family member. The 773ER is more expensive, more capable, and almost certainly more profitable (given sunk development costs), so this is in no way a bad thing for Boeing. The 777-200ER will soon be replaced by the 787-10, the biggest weakness of which will be the lack of available slots.

Also, it's interesting that you seem to think that the A330 will continue to sell for several years in the face of a demonstrably superior and fully defined competitor (the 787) but 773ER sales will grind to a halt as soon as Airbus even whispers the name A350.

Given that the so-called A350-1000, which is currently nothing more than a sheet of vague specifications, will not reach the market until late 2015 at the earliest, I'd say the 773ER has many years of strong sales left in it even if Boeing makes no further improvements. Given the tone of Randy's blog entry today, I wouldn't be too quick to announce the death of the Triple Seven.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
- In the VLA segment (both Boeing and Airbus both have upped their forecasts lately) the A380 rules, even long delays haven´t tempted airlines to order a single 747-adv/-8i.

The 747-8F is a great freighter, however the cargo market isn´t as profitable as the passenger market (a 744 F conversion :$60 mil..) If the 747-8 becomes a sole freighter family Boeing will have an expensive first in this respect.

Other than wishful thinking, what evidence do you have that the freighter segment is less profitable than the passenger segment? In fact, Boeing has always listed its freighters for more than the equivalent pax models:

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/prices/index.html

Quoting used aircraft prices means nothing because the new aircraft sales numbers are indisputable: Boeing is running away with the new-build VLA cargo market, while neither A380 pax or 747-8I sales have been inspiring lately. Given that, a production slot is a production slot and revenue is revenue. Boeing's failure to launch the 747-8I is a disappointment, but at the rate 747-8 slots are filling up with freighters, they have more and more time to do so.

And when 747-400 and -8 sales are compared with A380 sales over the last few years, the picture really starts to get ugly for Airbus. Even the die-hard Airbus fans on this forum are starting to admit that the A380 has diverted resources from much more strategically critical programs like the A300/767/A330 replacement market. With 420 A380 sales needed just to break even, Boeing can sell a fraction of that many 747-8s and still generate a superior ROI.

Sorry, Keesje, but this is really the money quote this year:

PARIS: Airbus unveiled a bullish long-term forecast for global aircraft demand Wednesday, but said its share of orders had shrunk to about 36 percent by value, from 45 percent last year, as U.S. rival Boeing sold more mid-size and larger jets.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/.../business/EU_FIN_France_Airbus.php

If anything, the orders race itself is quite deceiving. The A320 continues to sell very well and is single-handedly propping up Airbus' order totals, despite serious weakness in the entire widebody line. I think few people would disagree that the last two years have been a disaster for Airbus.

--B2707SST

[Edited 2006-11-23 01:08:34]
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futurecaptain
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 9:01 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
however the cargo market isn´t as profitable as the passenger market

Correct. It's more profitable. A multi-billion dollar industry of flying freight around the globe.
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Shenzhen
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 9:06 am

To add a little to your chart, through October of 2006, Airbus have delivered 353 airplanes, whilst Boeing have delivered 330. Boeing delivered 2 more widebody airplanes then Airbus, so Airbus delivered 21 more narrowbodies then Boeing.

Cheers
 
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 9:24 am

Quoting Brendows (Reply 3):
About 500+ 787s will have been delivered by 2014, I wouldn't call such a figure not that many

500 delivered! All I have to say is wow! where have you seen that? thats an astounding production rate
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 9:33 am

PARIS --- "Airbus is on track to deliver a record 425 planes in 2006 and keep its deliveries lead over Boeing unbroken for a fifth straight year in 2007, Leahy said. "

Leahy and Keesje like to keep us focused on "number of frames" in terms of Airbus' "lead," however....

PARIS --- "Airbus unveiled a bullish long-term forecast for global aircraft sales on Wednesday but said its share of new orders by value has shrunk to about 36 percent this year from 45 percent last year, as rival Boeing Co. grabbed more sales for mid-size and larger jets."

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/4353713.html

Boeing's lead in the VALUE of orders may narrow at some point, when the 350 starts to take shape, or as the 380 proves itself and garners more orders, but will that take years, perhaps? The 787 is SERIOUSLY ahead.

I wonder what Keesje's graph would look like if it showed value of orders instead of number of orders? If Airbus is down to 36 percent this year, then Boeing is up to 64%. That's almost 2/3 Boeing, 1/3 Airbus.

I don't know if Keesje's analysis is what I would call "perspective." However he would like to paint it, I suspect Boeing still thinks their picture is rosy. (Not that Boeing should rest on their laurels, which caused their last problems.
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brendows
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 9:49 am

Quoting Gokmengs (Reply 9):
500 delivered! All I have to say is wow! where have you seen that? thats an astounding production rate

IIRC, they will produce 7 per month during 2008 and 2009, and they're considering increasing the production rate to 10 per month in 2010. They are even considering increasing the production rate to 14-16 frames per month in the years after 2011-2012. (my sources is FI and ATWonline.)

With 7 per month during 2008 and 2009, and 10 per month from 2010 to the end of 2013 we're already above 500 deliveries.
 
F4N
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 10:19 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Airbus is facing some problems right now but I have the feeling the (US) press is getting carried away a bit and I´m always happy to offer a little perspective

 rotfl 

Keesje:

I always thought that "perspective" involved relevant relationships between subjects and a whole; i.e., Boeing/Airbus/commercial aviation.

I believe that you are confusing "perspective" with "spin-doctoring"...

But if it makes you happy pal, enjoy the view...

F4N
 
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keesje
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 8:26 pm

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 1):
I am sure other unkind mean, eads hating, unsupportive, nasty, hurtful members will point out a couple of errors in your logic but don’t let them see you get hurt.

Hi Elvis always the man with many qualifications, sorry I get step into your lab do discus this futher with a good coffee.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 2):
Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The mid segment, well Boeing has received a silent blow here.

B.S. The 787 is nothing less than the best-selling midsize airliner ever. No tears from Boeing.

In the 200-300 seat segment has gained lots of orders and commitment, but just hasn´t delivered in this decade. Lots of promises but no metal..

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 2):
I think you overestimate the cost to develop the B748.

I think Boeing underestimated the cost to develop the 747-8 and is boosting R&D spending.. http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Stor...F00F21A8E0F%7D&siteid=google&dist=

Quoting Brendows (Reply 3):
Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
the 2000-2008 period is really the A330 era. In 7-8 yrs A330 (with new engines?) will be be replaced by the XWB. A new customer can´t get many 787s before that time anyway.

About 500+ 787s will have been delivered by 2014, I wouldn't call such a figure not that many

The problem is NEW customers, just no slots..

Quoting Brendows (Reply 3):
The 772F will sell very well.

yes hopefully but th competition will be converted 744s and MD11´s selling at $ 200 mill a piece less (!!) That is a lot of fuel for one aircraft..

Quoting Brendows (Reply 3):
Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The 747-8F is a great freighter, however the cargo market isn´t as profitable as the passenger market (a 744 F conversion :$60 mil..) If the 747-8 becomes a sole freighter family Boeing will have an
expensive first in this respect.

The cargo market isn't as profitable as the passenger market, what makes you say that?

Most airframes get converted to freighter when theyu are 20+ yrs old, Freighter versions always coem after the passenger versions (until the 747-8), why?

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 6):
Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Airbus will outproduce Boeing again in 2006, 2007 and probably also in 2008.

Notice there is one and only one source on this graph: Airbus

No one disputes the numbers. (no airbus graph anyway)

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 6):
The A320 Enhanced program seems a save guard this trend for the next 5-7 yrs. The 737-900ER is a great new version of the 737NG familiy but IMO 8? years late.

How can the A320 Enhanced safeguard this trend when it doesn't exist yet?

The A320 has improvemenyt potentialfor the next decade.

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 6):
the wind has been taken out of the A330's sails

Well not out of its sales anyway.

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 6):
The 772ER has been replaced by the 773ER as the best-selling 777 family member

The 777-300ER has´t the same maret size as the 200ER.

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 6):
the A330 will continue to sell for several years in the face of a demonstrably superior and fully defined competitor (the 787)

Hard to believe after yrs of Boeing 787 PR tsunami´s but the 787 is not a demonstrably superior aircraft. It hasn´t even been constructed.

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 6):
but 773ER sales will grind to a halt as soon as Airbus even whispers the name A350.

The 777-300ER will probably hopefully sell well for years (5?) but after that I think it´s days are counted.

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 6):
Other than wishful thinking, what evidence do you have that the freighter segment is less profitable than the passenger segment?

when selling a 747-8F your are competing with 744 converted freighters of 60 mill. Conversion lines are set up /running top speed everywhere. Of course the 8F is a better aircraft but also 200 mill more expensive (list price). This basicly is the reason Freighters has never had top priority at first for the 707, 727, 737, 747, 757, 767, 777, A300, A310, A330, A340, A320, MD11, DC10, DC8, DC9, etc

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 6):
Sorry, Keesje, but this is really the money quote this year:

PARIS: Airbus unveiled a bullish long-term forecast for global aircraft demand Wednesday, but said its share of orders had shrunk to about 36 percent by value, from 45 percent last year, as U.S. rival Boeing sold more mid-size and larger jets

And around this time a decision has to be taken on the A350. What do you expect them to communicate?

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 8):
Boeing delivered 2 more widebody airplanes then Airbus,

That few?

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 13):
The A32X has clearly become the aircraft of choice for national carriers and cash-strapped start-ups

No, the A320 is the aircraft of choice for most flag carriers, the 737 traditionaly for the LCC´s / start ups. That has chanced in that the A320 also has become more popular among LCC / Start ups.

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 13):
The mid segment, well Boeing has received a silent blow here.

LMAO!!! LMAO!!! Only you, Keesje, could possibly come to this conclusion.

There is a 7-8 year gab between the 767 and 787 rolling of the production line. Most people are (willingly) blinded by future orders however..

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 13):
- Why is the 737-900ER 8 years too late, but the A350XWB is not?

the A321 has snapped up the 200+ short/medium seat marketd uring the last 8 years. The A330 is still selling well. There will probably be a gab but not 8 years.

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 13):
- Why will Airbus continue to see strong demand for the A330 with 787 EIS only 2 years away

No slots available. Airlines not willing to wait for 7 years.

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 13):
Boeing will lose all sales of the 777 with A350 EIS 8 years away?

no the 300ER has good chances in for the next 5 yrs IMO.

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 13):
- Why discount the 747-8I in order to get a launch customer, when Boeing is selling 747-8F's like there's no tomorrow?

Margins.

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 13):
- If the nearly 30-year old 767 is on life support, is that better or worse than the less than 20-year old A340 being virtually dead?

I know the A340 vs 777 is a story that can not be left out of any a.net thread and many news articles. On the production Airbus is now fitting two engines under them and producing 7 a month.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
aerokiwi
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 8:57 pm

Haven't A330 sales been propped up by customers demanding compensation for the A380 debacle? eg. Qantas, Singapore, TAP even?
 
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scbriml
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 9:40 pm

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 6):
Notice there is one and only one source on this graph: Airbus.

Presumably all they did was draw the graph using numbers available from both manufacturers web sites. If you disagree with the numbers, please show us yours (with sources of course!)  wave 
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 9:44 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 2):
Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The mid segment, well Boeing has received a silent blow here.

B.S. The 787 is nothing less than the best-selling midsize airliner ever. No tears from Boeing.

In the 200-300 seat segment has gained lots of orders and commitment, but just hasn´t delivered in this decade. Lots of promises but no metal..



Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
Quoting B2707SST (Reply 6):
The A320 Enhanced program seems a save guard this trend for the next 5-7 yrs. The 737-900ER is a great new version of the 737NG familiy but IMO 8? years late.

How can the A320 Enhanced safeguard this trend when it doesn't exist yet?

The A320 has improvemenyt potentialfor the next decade.

Keesje: Just for my understanding: you blame the 787 to be "lots of promises but no metal" and on the other side you name the A320 Enhanced - an aircraft which won't be delivered much earlier than the first 787 (are the enhancements even frozen yet?) - as safeguard for Airbus' NB future? Well then... ok  sarcastic 
 
CrazyHorse
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 10:08 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Don´t be surprised if Airlines like BA, UAL, Aeroflot and Asian carriers order A330´s. Many might like the 787 but just can´t afford to wait for 7 years to replace 767 / A300´s/ M11s / DC10´s. Add to that the A330F

If an carrier order today a bunch of A330, when the first aircraft will be delivered to the airline?
 
brendows
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Li

Thu Nov 23, 2006 10:35 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
I think Boeing underestimated the cost to develop the 747-8 and is boosting R&D spending.. http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Stor...dist=

If that makes the 748 more attractive, why would that be a negative thing? Still, the 748 will be a cheap derivative, while still being very competitive.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
Quoting Brendows (Reply 3):
About 500+ 787s will have been delivered by 2014, I wouldn't call such a figure not that many


The problem is NEW customers, just no slots..

Are you certain that all slots between 2011 and 2014 are for airlines that are listed on Boeing's Orders & Deliveries web site? You shouldn't... Still, Boeing can deliver a huge amount of 787s before the first A350 even rolls of the assembly line, and it will, by that time, be operated by a large number of airlines.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
Quoting Brendows (Reply 3):
The 772F will sell very well.


yes hopefully but th competition will be converted 744s and MD11´s selling at $ 200 mill a piece less (!!) That is a lot of fuel for one aircraft..

There are only a limited number of pax-Md-11s left, and it is nowhere near as efficient or capable as the 777F. At the same time, the 747BCF/SF will be too large for other carriers.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
Quoting Brendows (Reply 3):
The cargo market isn't as profitable as the passenger market, what makes you say that?


Most airframes get converted to freighter when theyu are 20+ yrs old,


But the converted freighter can't always do the same job as the new builds...

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
Quoting B2707SST (Reply 6):
How can the A320 Enhanced safeguard this trend when it doesn't exist yet?


The A320 has improvemenyt potentialfor the next decade.

But the 737NG aren't standing still either... Much of the improvements on the A320E comes from the engine upgrade, but the Tech56 will be available for both the A320 and the 737...

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
Quoting B2707SST (Reply 6):
The 772ER has been replaced by the 773ER as the best-selling 777 family member


The 777-300ER has´t the same maret size as the 200ER.

Because it hasn't been available for the same number of years, is it that hard to figure it out? banghead 

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
Quoting B2707SST (Reply 6):
the A330 will continue to sell for several years in the face of a demonstrably superior and fully defined competitor (the 787)


Hard to believe after yrs of Boeing 787 PR tsunami´s but the 787 is not a demonstrably superior aircraft. It hasn´t even been constructed.

Then why should we believe Airbus on how the A350 will be? Airlines doesn't buy airliners based on loose assumptions, the manufacturers know pretty well early on what they can expect. The 787 will be better than you're willing to accept, in two years, even you will have seen that, hopefully.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
when selling a 747-8F your are competing with 744 converted freighters of 60 mill.

The 744BCF/SF can't lift anywhere near what the 748F can, nor can it fly that payload as far.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
I know the A340 vs 777 is a story that can not be left out of any a.net thread and many news articles. On the production Airbus is now fitting two engines under them and producing 7 a month.

But the A330s can only do a fraction of what the 777NG can, so that doesn't help Airbus or the A340 much does it? no 
 
Aero71
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 11:32 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 18):
Presumably all they did was draw the graph using numbers available from both manufacturers web sites. If you disagree with the numbers, please show us yours (with sources of course!)   

According to this press release Boeing delivered 290 planes in 2005 not 270 as shown in the graph above.
 
bhmbaglock
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Thu Nov 23, 2006 11:49 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 2):
Production numbers don't tell us anything. It's revenue that matters.

Excellent counter-point to Keesje but I'd take it a step farther and say it's margin that matters even more. Since widebodies generally have higher margin this skews things farther in Boeing's direction. Add in the vastly higher costs of recent mistakes on the part of A regarding A380 and A350(1-6 or so) and it's clear who's making more money. Since profit drives innovation this does not put A in a good position for the near future.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
Lots of promises but no metal..

The no metal part really hurts doesn't it. It's actually about 50/50 though for the 787.

On the subject of promises, I think the airlines are a bit more inclined to believe B vs. A at the moment. The last major screwups by B affecting customers were the MD-11 performance problems and the botched 737 production ramp up which are distant memories compared to the design of the day A350, the delayed beyond reason A380, the poor economics of the A340 series, and the maybe it will fly some day A400.
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sstsomeday
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Fri Nov 24, 2006 12:05 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 18):
Presumably all they did was draw the graph using numbers available from both manufacturers web sites. If you disagree with the numbers, please show us yours (with sources of course!)

But the numbers are meaningless because they don't indicate the value of those sales, which paint a very different picture.

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 23):
If members merely shunned threads of this ilk by suggesting deletion instead of responding point by point to blatant propaganda, this kind of tiresome outburst would probably stop.

I see your point. If the thread starter (in this case) was only sarcastic and made no attempt to be comprehensive, I would ignore it. But since he refers to (a very subjective) analysis of the facts, I find it interesting to see the far-fetched extrapolations challenged.

The unsuspecting or less informed A-nutter might be mesmerised by a lot of numbers that "sound" good and are offered with an air of authority. Those with more balanced points of view might be doing that member a disservice if the thread was ignored or answered with only one sentence rebuttals.

But, maybe it's no one's responsibility to help people form their own opinions. You may be right.
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CM767
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Fri Nov 24, 2006 2:07 am

When most of us would like to visit the State of Seattle some here are already visiting the state of Denial.
But The Best Thing God Has Created Is A New Day
 
coa747
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Fri Nov 24, 2006 4:04 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 13):
No, the A320 is the aircraft of choice for most flag carriers, the 737 traditionaly for the LCC´s / start ups. That has chanced in that the A320 also has become more popular among LCC / Start ups.

So you would call KLM, Qantas, Southwest, Delta, Continental, AeroMexico, Alaska, Korean Air, American, JAL...etc LCC carriers? Interesting.

Face facts for all intents and purposes Airbus has only one airplane it is stable that is selling and that is the A320 series. That is a precarious position to be in right now. They have pretty much ceeded the widebody market to Boeing. Airbus must also be blind to the fact that airlines are going smaller. When carrier like JAL who used to own the largest 747 fleet in the world start replacing 747-400's with 777-300ER's it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that a major shift in market strategy is taking place. Believe me Airbus sees it and it scares them to death the more airlines like South African and other medium 747-400 operators reject the A380 model the harder it is for them to sell the A380. The A380 was envisioned as a replacement for the 747-400 but in reality the 777-300ER has become the true replacement and Airbus is watching the A380 market evaporate before its very eyes.

Talk about arriving too late the A350 still hasn't been launched and has already ceeded almost 500 orders and about 6 years in the market. Who missed the boat on that one? Airlines like Singapore and other A350 customers are starting to get nervous again. When is Airbus going to launch this mythical airplane anyway? I guess the six or is it the seventh time will be the charm.
 
Danny
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Fri Nov 24, 2006 10:04 am

Quoting BHMBAGLOCK (Reply 20):
Excellent counter-point to Keesje but I'd take it a step farther and say it's margin that matters even more. Since widebodies generally have higher margin this skews things farther in Boeing's direction.

Time for another reality shower?

Consolidated statements of Boeing and EADS for 2005 show:

Boeing (all):
Revenue: 54,8b $
Op Pproft: 8,6b $
Proft Margin: 15,7%
http://www.boeing.com/companyoffices.../annual/05annualreport/05AR_46.pdf

EADS:
Revenue: 34,2b Eur
Op Profit: 6,7b Eur
Proft Margin: 19,6%
http://www.eads.com/xml/content/OF00000000400004/7/23/41284237.pdf
 
Danny
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Fri Nov 24, 2006 10:17 am

Quoting Coa747 (Reply 23):
Airbus must also be blind to the fact that airlines are going smaller. When carrier like JAL who used to own the largest 747 fleet in the world start replacing 747-400's with 777-300ER's it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that a major shift in market strategy is taking place.

I guess we live in a different world then. What I see is that:

1. Airlines no longer want 50 seat RJs, now they buy 70-90 seaters instead.
2. A318/319 and B736/737 are selling average, it is 320/321 and 738/739 that is driving NB sale now.
3. Sale of 772 stalled completely, airlines choose 773 instead.
4. 748i has zero orders after year of intensive marketing. Carriers prefer bigger A380 even despite horrendous delays.

  

[Edited 2006-11-24 02:23:21]
 
atmx2000
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Fri Nov 24, 2006 11:10 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 24):
Consolidated statements of Boeing and EADS for 2005 show:

Boeing (all):
Revenue: 54,8b $
Op Pproft: 8,6b $
Proft Margin: 15,7%
http://www.boeing.com/companyoffices.../annual/05annualreport/05AR_46.pdf

EADS:
Revenue: 34,2b Eur
Op Profit: 6,7b Eur
Proft Margin: 19,6%
http://www.eads.com/xml/content/OF00...7.pdf

This only reflects the state of the orders market given the last 5 or so years of orders, the earlier part of which Boeing had a far rougher time. Within a couple of years the effects of Boeing's last two years of sales will become dominant on the deliveries, and margins will swing back in Boeing's favor.

Quoting Danny (Reply 25):
1. Airlines no longer want 50 seat RJs, now they buy 70-90 seaters instead.

The trend at the extreme end of the market where CASMs are far higher is not particularly predictive.

Quoting Danny (Reply 25):
2. A318/319 and B736/737 are selling average, it is 320/321 and 738/739 that is driving NB sale now.

While the 738 has sold 318 firm units this year, I would hardly call 191 73G sales average.

Quoting Danny (Reply 25):
3. Sale of 772 stalled completely, airlines choose 773 instead.

Why would that be suprising, given the 772ER models use older engines. The 772LR provides far more capability than most airlines need on most routes at a price premium. And given that there is plenty of talk of replacement aircraft in this size category from Boeing and Airbus, airlines are in no hurry to make decisions.

Quoting Danny (Reply 25):
4. 748i has zero orders after year of intensive marketing. Carriers prefer bigger A380 even despite horrendous delays.

Boeing has a problem in that it has potential customers with competing desires in terms of size for the 748. Boeing has to choose which direction they will go in before they can possibly expect a sale. And it isn't like Airbus has had much success selling A380s this year, except to carriers who probably can extract an arm and leg from an Airbus that knows customer relations are poor right now. And of course one must note that 773ER sales vastly exceed those of these larger jets, putting a big hole in your theory. If there is a customer preference for the A380, it might be more due to newer technology and other features other than size.
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N328KF
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Fri Nov 24, 2006 11:43 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 24):

Consolidated statements of Boeing and EADS for 2005 show:

Boeing took a lot of charges in 2005 for the ethics scandals, and your figures are with those charges counted in. This does not reflect their margin. EADS will be taking a lot of charges in 2006 for their various delays.
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
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Danny
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Fri Nov 24, 2006 4:45 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 27):
Boeing took a lot of charges in 2005 for the ethics scandals, and your figures are with those charges counted in.

They are not included. I took operating profits - therefore sale of products and services less their cost. All admin, finance and other sundry and one off expenses go below that line.
 
bringiton
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Fri Nov 24, 2006 6:05 pm

Danny I'm not sure if you have the profit margins right for both the companies because i dont see them this high . Most of the Buisness reports (Forbes,Bloomberg,BW etc talk about close to 10% profit margin) Moreover you are comparing EADS to boeing and not AIRBUS to BCA which is more relevent to our discussion. -

" Boeing is aiming to cut manufacturing costs to increase its profit margin to at least 10 percent from 5.5 percent, even as it offers discounts to compete with Airbus, based in Toulouse, France.
""

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...&sid=aT1Qk.8BBQ.Y&refer=news_index
 
bringiton
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Fri Nov 24, 2006 6:23 pm

UNABLE TO EDIT -

If you look at the latest results boeing has been able to double earnings (3rd qtr 2006) and raise Profit margins from 5.5 % to 9.7 % and I beleive Airbus is also quoted of saying somewhere that they'd like to keep Profit margins as close to 10% as possible . I think where the difference will be seen is when these huge orders (2005,2006 for both boeing and airbus) start to be delivered ie. the 787/777 sales for boeing and the high prod. rate A320 sales for Airbus . Expect profit margins to be healthy and Earnings and Profits to increase considerably in 2008,2009 and 2010 when boeing adds dozens of 787's per year to its deliivery schedule , bumps up and delivers more 737NG's , T-7's and 747 . Ditto with airbus and the higher 320 deliveries . Even in those high delivery days the profit margins will likely not reach the 15% or 19% for both BCA and Airbus .
 
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keesje
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Fri Nov 24, 2006 7:33 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 25):
Danny

good one danny

we see indeed the bigger versions of almost all aircraft types aircraft becoming the more popular ones

I think it has to do with added flexibility, lower seat mile costs etc.

the 737-700 and a319 are still popular but with low cost airlines that put in real high density conigurations.

the average size of aircraft goes down but that is because so many NB are sold now and RJs in the last 15 years, that´s another story.

I think the 787-9 will become more popular the the -8 and the A350-900 more then the -800. And perhaps the A380-900 more then the -800 but then we are talking 20 yrs.

At Embraer we see that the E190 has taken the lion share of orders over the 170, 175 and 195.


Quoting Coa747 (Reply 23):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 13):
No, the A320 is the aircraft of choice for most flag carriers, the 737 traditionaly for the LCC´s / start ups. That has chanced in that the A320 also has become more popular among LCC / Start ups.

So you would call KLM, Qantas, Southwest, Delta, Continental, AeroMexico, Alaska, Korean Air, American, JAL...etc LCC carriers? Interesting.

Well Southwest anyway  Wink I think if you somehow scrolled over the 150 737NG operators and 100 A320 operators you got the picture..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Sat Nov 25, 2006 8:39 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 13):
Lots of promises but no metal..

Keesje, you seem to suggest that the Boeing failed to deliver something that was promised. This is just nonsense. Would it be fair to say that the A350 has been all promises but no metal? Airbus booked actual orders, yet failed to deliver that aircraft as conceived.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 13):
I think Boeing underestimated the cost to develop the 747-8 and is boosting R&D spending..

True, but more accurate to say that they underestimated market requirements. The extra money is not needed to deliver the original B748i concept, but rather to develop an improved B748i. The error was in underestimating the customer's demands.

Quoting CM767 (Reply 22):
State of Seattle

Umm...perhaps you meant the State of Washington.

Quoting Danny (Reply 24):
Consolidated statements of Boeing and EADS for 2005 show

For 2005. Most of Airbus's concerns and Boeing's profit expectations lie in the future. Airbus was clearly ahead, the shock lies in the reversal of fortunes.

Quoting Danny (Reply 25):
I guess we live in a different world then. What I see is that:
1. Airlines no longer want 50 seat RJs, now they buy 70-90 seaters instead.

You appear to believe this means that all market segments will grow, and that is not in evidence. RJ's in general are not fuel efficient, so a trend toward somewhat greater efficiency in the segment is more likely driven by fuel costs than a desire for increased capacity. We may see a resurgence of turboprops in coming years.

Quoting Danny (Reply 25):
4. 748i has zero orders after year of intensive marketing. Carriers prefer bigger A380 even despite horrendous delays.

Neither of the passenger VLA's is selling. A380 has had some options exercised, but no new airlines signing on. If there is a preferrence being shown, it's very weak indeed.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 31):
we see indeed the bigger versions of almost all aircraft types aircraft becoming the more popular ones

"Almost all"? The B788 is outselling B789 by a wide margin. Likewise with A332 outselling A333. A big chunk of A & B revenues tend to contradict your supposition.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
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keesje
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Sat Nov 25, 2006 9:13 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 32):
Lots of promises but no metal..

Keesje, you seem to suggest that the Boeing failed to deliver something that was promised.

Boeing production has been running iddle in this segment for years. In that sense the launch of the 787 was easy, they had no choice & have to regain a position after 2008. It would have been better if the 787 had been there in 2000, succeeding the 767 family.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 32):
Airbus was clearly ahead, the shock lies in the reversal of fortunes.

That is the general emotion at this moment, production numbers, backlog and portfolio show a different picture.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 32):
"Almost all"? The B788 is outselling B789 by a wide margin

The 767-200 also outsold the -300 in the early eighties, as did the early smaller 727, 737 etc. Lets wait for ten years & look how the numbers look then. I think the 787-9 better meets long term market requirements then the 787-8 and 787-3, probably -8 orders will be converted to -9s (as did ANZ & QF probably will).


787-9

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 32):
If there is a preferrence being shown, it's very weak indeed.

Hardly any passenger 747 has been sold during the last 5 years vs 150 A380´s, not very weak IMO.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
jacobin777
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Li

Sat Nov 25, 2006 9:58 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Amid all the articles of Airbus receiving blows, Boeing having chosen the right direction etc., we could almost forget what has been happening bottom line:



Actually Keesje, I believe you are incorrect..this is the bottom line... Wink



Cheers.
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CM767
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Sat Nov 25, 2006 10:12 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 32):
Umm...perhaps you meant the State of Washington.

Ups you are right... Thanks.
But The Best Thing God Has Created Is A New Day
 
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Stitch
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Li

Sat Nov 25, 2006 10:20 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Airbus outsold Boeing dramatically last year in the NB segment and will probably do so again in 2006. The A320 Enhanced program seems a save guard this trend for the next 5-7 yrs.

Which is important to provide operating capital to fund future Airbus developments. Also, the additional production capacity coming online could help Airbus secure more orders for the A320 family thanks to earlier then planned availability.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The 737-900ER is a great new version of the 737NG family but IMO 8? years late.

I admit I don't understand why the 737-900ER wasn't the base model...

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The mid segment, well Boeing has received a silent blow here. The 787 is selling great but will arrive very late, the 767 is on oxygen support for yrs.

The 787 will arrive late in the decade because of when she was launched, but she seems to have chosen the right time to arrive based on meeting the first wave of replacement and expansion orders from a number of airlines.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The 2000-2008 period is really the A330 era. In 7-8 yrs A330 (with new engines?) will be be replaced by the XWB. A new customer can´t get many 787s before that time anyway.

I believe it does depend on how the XWB matches up against the 787 in meeting demand curves. Right now, the XWB seems to look to have the advantage in the upper-end of the curve, while the 787 holds it in the bottom. The two seem to overlap quite well in the middle with multiple models in the family. So 787-8 and A3510 sales should be very strong thanks to lack of competition, with a more pitched battle in the 787-9/787-10 and A358/A359 arena.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Don´t be surprised if Airlines like BA, UAL, Aeroflot and Asian carriers order A330´s. Many might like the 787 but just can´t afford to wait for 7 years to replace 767 / A300´s/ M11s / DC10´s.

I honestly can't see BA and UA taking the A330. Nothing against the plane, but they can afford to wait for the 787 and/or A350XWB. I don't think SU will be given a chance to order anything before the 787/A350XWB EIS the way Russia keeps making them wait in the hallway.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The 777 is a great aircraft. However the best selling 777-200ER has nearly stopped selling. The 777-300ER has outsold the A340-600 but its >2010 future looks bleak if A350 forecast become half truth.

A decade is a long time. Even if 773ER sales start to dry-up past 2010 should the A350-1000 program be progressing well, that could still be hundreds of sales before 2015.

Quote:
The 772F is selling well but in competition with low-cost (converted) alternatives.

Evidently the MD-11 and DC-10 conversion market is starting to dry-up, which is forcing carriers like FX and KE (and probably LH) to move to the 777F. So that trend should keep her selling well.

And the 330F should also do quite well, even if 767BCF conversions pick-up as 787's release passenger 767s into the conversion market, because of her superior economics and capabilities.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
In the VLA segment the A380 rules, even long delays haven´t tempted airlines to order a single 747-adv/-8i.

Aye. The window is closing on a 747-8 launch, I think. Two years, at most, is my guess to land a sufficient order to make the project worthwhile.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The 747-8F is a great freighter, however the cargo market isn´t as profitable as the passenger market...

Folks keep saying that, yet Boeing keeps selling out year after year of 747 freighter production and Airbus expects robust sales of the A330F. I believe the 747F, the 777F, and the A330F should all yield nice sales volumes and nice margins for Boeing and Airbus, even with cheaper conversion options available for all three models.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Sat Nov 25, 2006 10:21 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 33):
Boeing production has been running iddle in this segment for years. In that sense the launch of the 787 was easy, they had no choice & have to regain a position after 2008. It would have been better if the 787 had been there in 2000, succeeding the 767 family.

Agreed - Boeing fell far behind in this segment, but I question whether the 787 as we know it could have been realized in 2000. The fundamental technologies being used were intended for the Sonic Cruiser, so perhaps better to fault Boeing for not going for efficiency (7E7) in the first place. Had they done so, perhaps we'd have the 787 in service today rather than two years hence.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 33):
That is the general emotion at this moment, production numbers, backlog and portfolio show a different picture

A great deal of that emotion is coming from Airbus! Agreed that Airbus's situation is nowhere near so dire as some pretend, but looking to the past for comfort will not advance the Airbus position (current production and backlog are indeed a reflection of past sales). The real depth of the financial woes will be played out over the next few years.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 33):
Lets wait for ten years & look how the numbers look then.

Agreed. It's going to be fun!  Smile

Quoting Keesje (Reply 33):
Hardly any passenger 747 has been sold during the last 5 years vs 150 A380´s, not very weak IMO.

I was looking more to the current situation and my expectation of the future. BTW, my criticism of the Airbus "go bigger" strategy is based on my fundamental beliefs in the depletion of cheap oil supplies and the undeniable consequences of "global warming". I see a fundamental irony in the US manufacturer being first to focus on fuel efficiency while the EU manufacturer worked to build the biggest plane that was deemed practical.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
sstsomeday
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RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Sat Nov 25, 2006 11:16 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 32):
You appear to believe this means that all market segments will grow, and that is not in evidence. RJ's in general are not fuel efficient, so a trend toward somewhat greater efficiency in the segment is more likely driven by fuel costs than a desire for increased capacity. We may see a resurgence of turboprops in coming years.

Off topic, but I have been expecting this for a while. If fuel prices have reached a ballpark of where they will stay, as compared to a few years ago, then I suspect that a demand for a next generation turbo prop will develop. If new technology can get the vibration and cabin noise down, I don't think passengers will care that much. Airlines will love the fuel economy, and could we expect maintenance to be less costly?
I come in peace
 
manni
Posts: 4049
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2001 1:48 am

RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Sun Nov 26, 2006 5:19 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
we could almost forget what has been happening bottom line:

Indeed very impressive, Airbus nearly trippled the number of deliverys last year as compared to the first year avialable on the graphic you provided. 300% increase in just 8 years and still growing! Boeing managed to produce 51 aircraft less last year as compared to 8 years ago, and 350 aircraft less as compared to 6 years ago...

Interesting FACTS. Thanks for posting these!
 
sstsomeday
Posts: 821
Joined: Thu Oct 26, 2006 2:32 pm

RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Line..

Mon Nov 27, 2006 1:39 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 39):
Interesting FACTS.

These FACTS once again ignore the "value" of these orders, and therefore assume that a 320 order has the same "value" as a 777 order.
I come in peace
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Aircraft Deliveries Airbus & Boeing, Bottom Li

Mon Nov 27, 2006 1:43 am

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 40):
Quoting Manni (Reply 39):
Interesting FACTS.

These FACTS once again ignore the "value" of these orders, and therefore assume that a 320 order has the same "value" as a 777 order.

 checkmark ...People could spin the truth all they want, but again..this is probably the most important "fact"....

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