The acceleration of the delivery programme is aimed at making up for the two-year delay due to technical problems that have slowed the A380’s progress.

More than 70 airports around the would be ready for the A380 by 2011, Airbus said. Major hubs such as Frankfurt, San Francisco, Charles de Gaulle, Heathrow, Singapore, Melbourne and now OR Tambo are ready for the A380.

“It can carry 35% more passengers than the Boeing 747-400 and with far more floor space available, the A380 enables airlines to deliver more comfort in every class and more space for passengers to stretch their legs,” Ullmo said.

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/topstories.aspx?ID=BD4A327379

I think another 100 A380s every 2 year is a lot, however 800 744 have to replaced & long haul traffic is expected (by A&B) to tripple in the next 20 years.

1260 very large passenger planes are foreseen as a requirement.

In the next 20 years Airbus foresees a requirement for 700 in Asia, nearly 300 for Europe and North America and MEA combined 220.

Nearly 70% of these flight will be between the top 20 worldwide hubs.

Although Los Angeles is the only North American city within the top ten, San Francisco, New York and Chicago will use the productive capacity of 96 large aircraft. This is already confirmed by the routes announced of the current A380 customers.

Airbus sees the twin aisles´ as the biggest market. Not every 744 will be replaced by A380, not all A380 will fly hub-hub and Airbus doesn´t need to capture a 100% marketshare in the VLA market to reach its targets.

http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/g..._Demand-for-Passenger-Aircraft.pdf


Singapore kids during route proving

Great News !!
Thanks for sharing.

With all of this good news flying around all of sudden, it looks like they're finally getting their act together as far as this plane in concerned.

Let's hope that this is the case,    things must be looking good as Clark et al have stopped complaining publically recently

Does Airbus pay you for your PR efforts, or are they blackmailing you in some way?  

Anyway, there are not and never will be 800 744s that need replacing. Only 698 were ever sold. 227 of those are F or Combi models, leaving only 471 pax 744s needing to be replaced. 19 of those are D models, and will not be replaced with VLA, leaving 452. Of those, many of the oldest are already being phased out with 77Ws and 346s. Many 744s are ten years old or less, and will be with us until 2015-2022.

The 744F models are quite new and will not be replaced any time soon (not in the next 10-15 years). Many of the pax 744s will be converted to F models, making the demand for new build VLA freighters not as large as it might seem. 744Ms will not be replaced with VLA, as their routes can't sustain either a VLA freighter or a VLA pax load. Midsize jets will run those routes.

The A380 will need to win the bulk of 744 replacements that remain, vs. 77W, 350-1000 and 748i, as well as a large wave of expansion in the market that is long range and hub centric and can't be better served by 787, 777, 330 and 350X aircraft.

Rosy expansion projections or not, increasing the rate to 40 a year is risky as it will mean suppliers may need to build excess capacity to meet that rate only to have demand slow dramatically after a few years. The same thing happened to the 747 soon after it's EIS, and it was bad news for everyone involved...

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter): the two-year delay due to technical problems that have slowed the A380’s progress.

Keesje, you aren't breathlessly repeating the main talking point correctly: the A380 program isn't being plagued by "technical problems," the two-year delay is caused by "production problems" due to loss of configuration control. You'd think that someone who considers himself to be in possession of exceptionally keen insights would get the    just right.  

What I find interesting with this report is the ramp up to 48 frames per year from the previous target of 45.

If Airbus manages to achieve this target, it will create further pressure upon the B748i program. If i'm not mistaken the B748i first delivery is expected towards the end of 2010.

It's also to good to note the recent positive tone, (PR) surrounding the A380 program. It would lead me to speculate that many of the set targets are in fact being meet or even exceeding.

With that being said I do still have some recent memories in which Airbus PR was full of BS.

Regards,
WINGS

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3): Rosy expansion projections or not, increasing the rate to 40 a year is risky as it will mean suppliers may need to build excess capacity to meet that rate only to have demand slow dramatically after a few years.

Airbus has a pile of debt on this project with interest being shovelled on top all the time. Airbus needs to start reducing the height of the pile as fast as it can. Perhaps the only way to counter the certainty of high interest payments at a lower production level is to take the risk of increasing production with no certainty that demand will sustain the increased capacity.

IMO a low production rate is bound to cost money; a higher rate might not and if demand does appear to absorb the increased capacity, Airbus will not risk losing orders because it does not have delivery slots available soon enough.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3): Rosy expansion projections or not, increasing the rate to 40 a year is risky as it will mean suppliers may need to build excess capacity to meet that rate only to have demand slow dramatically after a few years

Don't disagree with that, Ikramerica   
Unfortunately Airbus are damned if they do, and damned if they don't.   

They've got 160+ firm orders which have been delayed by up to 2 years from the original dates. They HAVE to get those planes to customers ASAP.

In addition, if Airbus seriously want to sell more of these planes, even a production rate of 48 from 2010 onwards leaves no unfilled production slots to speak of this side of the start of 2013.
So new customers will typically have to wait a minimum of 6 years for new A380's already

Oh yes, and there's this too  

Quoting Art (Reply 11): Airbus has a pile of debt on this project with interest being shovelled on top all the time.

IMO delivering those 160 frames in the stated timeframe will be a crucial underpinning to the financing of the A350XWB.
They need the revenue!

Regards

It is my understanding that Airbus will deliver 39 A380s between 2007 and 2009. That leaves 127 airframes left from their current orderbook. At 48 per year, that's two and a half years or so.

Astuteman's point about getting these frames out the door ASAP is well taken, but isn't Airbus getting carried away with the production capacity?

It seems to me that if they're going to establish a production capacity of 48 aircraft per year, Mr. Lahey better get busy.

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 13): It seems to me that if they're going to establish a production capacity of 48 aircraft per year, Mr. Lahey better get busy.

Maybe he already has  

Keesje, IMHO you should replace Mr. Leahy of Airbus - you seem to be just as good at promoting their jets, with only a (healthy) fraction of his arrogance and cockiness...

Cute kid pic by the way.

I do believe that once the A380 does fly in service, it will prove itself and attract more orders. However, I also believe that Airbus has to be better than it is now. It shot itself in the foot with the wiring mishaps and with only a net of 149 orders (flame me if I'm wrong), the A380 will die out in 2012 if it they build 48 of her per year.

SparkingWave ~~~

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 13): It seems to me that if they're going to establish a production capacity of 48 aircraft per year, Mr. Lahey better get busy.

  .

Like I said - "Damned if they do, damned if they don't"  

Regards

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 16): Like I said - "Damned if they do, damned if they don't"

  
Or the devil you know (lots of interest) is better than the devil you don't (possible overcapacity).

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3): Of those, many of the oldest are already being phased out with 77Ws and 346s.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3): The A380 will need to win the bulk of 744 replacements that remain, vs. 77W, 350-1000 and 748i, as well as a large wave of expansion in the market that is long range and hub centric and can't be better served by 787, 777, 330 and 350X aircraft.

You make good points, and I agree with pretty much you say. I'm also very skeptic about anything that comes out of Airbus' PR department these days.
However, one thing can't be ignored and that is, if current 747's are being downgauged to 777's and 330's while passenger number continue to increase where will the extra capacity come from? Certainly not all will come from increased frequencies.

Just because airlines are replacing 747's will smaller 777's or 330's today doesn' mean they won't be needing an A380 in the future in order to cope with increased demand.

That's what I was thinking Sparking Wave, at this rate the program will be over by 2013-2014. It makes me think of vomiting up a beautiful Porter House steak. It looked great on the menu, it was huge, and I was hungry. But it make me sick as hell. However, as soon as I ejected it from the system I felt great and ordered desert which went down just fine. It sucked paying the bill though!

Quoting Art (Reply 17): Or the devil you know (lots of interest) is better than the devil you don't (possible overcapacity).

Of course, in reality, the plan is to deliver (approximately)

1 plane only in 2007
1 plane per month in 2008
2 planes per month in 2009
4 planes per month in 2010.

I suspect in 2 years time (end 2008), there would be deep and meaningful reviews of a prospective ramp up to 4 per month in 2010, based on far more pertinent data than can be available today.

If the next 2 years brings 100 new orders,, say, then one decision will be made.
If the next 2 years brings 100 cancellations, a different decision might well be forthcoming.  

FWIW, I don't see 48 frames in 2010 as any particular sort of accelleration. That's basically the delayed plan Airbus published back in October.
That's also been the planned maximum capacity of the programme right from the very start.

Edit - so at least there shouldn't be supply chain bottlenecks to challenge the ramp-up.

Regards

[Edited 2006-11-27 14:27:51]

Quoting WINGS (Reply 10): It's also to good to note the recent positive tone, (PR) surrounding the A380 program. It would lead me to speculate that many of the set targets are in fact being meet or even exceeding.

That's what positive PR does, it leads one to thing warm and fuzzy thoughts. Since many have criticised Airbus's lack of good PR, they should perhaps welcome this. In any regard, even a lack of bad news is good news for Airbus, given the recent past.

I'd love to have some real insider info: are the software issues being resolved, are all the miswired planes being rewired to the correct standard, what are the UPS and EK auditors discovering, etc. but for now, I guess good PR will have to do.

I agree with wingman . This programme will end early (I would go for 2017). Yes they will sell 400 plus and get their money back -just. After that comes the Boeing BWB-which is why there will never be a "second generation" 380.The present orders/deliveries will need replacing after 15 years. With the orders placed at the 12 year mark. Yup that sounds about right to me.

Thanks for the link Keesje,

From the article,

"South African Airways said recently that it would consider buying the A380 once its balance sheet had improved."

I seem to remember a topic running on South African saying not being interested in the A380...

I wonder what's more accurate.

Of course, the next time there is another delay or any other sort of "bad news" on the 380, the Bus fans will be spinning like crazy to justify the cause. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Niche airplane. Period. If it sells in excess of 300 copies in it's lifetime it will be a shock. 70 airports may be ready for it, maybe 1/2 that number will ever see scheduled service.

The delays in the A380 program should have left most of the suppliers for the A380 a good cushion to create a surplus of parts. Airbus should not be bogged down with supplier issues. (the exemption I guess being the wiring supplier) The only thing holding Airbus back from max production output for the A380 is keeping the quality controls in place.
It is nice to hear some good things coming from this program that seems plagued with negative news. I plan on flying to YVR to see its proving flight there on Wed. Anyone have an update on arrival departure time and possible parking places???

Quoting Briguy1974 (Reply 25): I plan on flying to YVR to see its proving flight there on Wed. Anyone have an update on arrival departure time and possible parking places???

See: http://www1.airliners.net/discussion...eneral_aviation/read.main/3116792/

Ok great news for A. They will sell 150 A380's.
while B will sell 2000 B787. I fail to see this as a win for A.

Yes the A board is off drinking koolaid instead of meeting.

Common. The real problem is selling a four engine aircraft. The reliability is the issue.

While I think this is excellent news and I can't wait to see the A380 in the skies, I seem to be reading more about carrier reconsidering their A380 positions. The Chinese carriers haven't placed orders and the one that has is considering A350s (rumour). North, Central and South American airlines seem unlikely candidates to order. European carriers will perhaps order more. The Middle east seems taken care of given the 50 odd birds ordered by the dominant Emirates. Qantas and Singapore Airlines have already increased their orders, Japan carriers seem uninterested and African carriers will not order it other than South African who can use probbay up to a maximum of a dozen of the type.

If Airbus has already produced over 20- which I read in another topic/ post- they've produced 1/8 of the backlog already.

I can't remember the total of A380 orders now, and I am really not trying to start an argument, so please delete my post if it causes problems, but where is Airbus going to get more sizeable orders to keep a large backlog for production not to end in 2013!!

AA1818

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3): Anyway, there are not and never will be 800 744s that need replacing. Only 698 were ever sold. 227 of those are F or Combi models, leaving only 471 pax 744s needing to be replaced. 19 of those are D models, and will not be replaced with VLA, leaving 452. Of those, many of the oldest are already being phased out with 77Ws and 346s. Many 744s are ten years old or less, and will be with us until 2015-2022.

But this is not accounting for any increase in global traffic levels. In reality theres no way to predict how many A380s will be sold over the next two decades. All I know is that it will be somewhere between Airbus' most optimistic prediction, and Boeings most pessimistic.

Quoting BillReid (Reply 31): Ok great news for A. They will sell 150 A380's.

How many have been sold to date?

Well if 48 A380 a year is just a short-term program designed to "clear out the backlog", I don't see what the big deal is. As soon as Airbus has a new final production plan to present to their suppliers, those suppliers will have upwards of three years to produce parts for Airbus to begin assembling those planes and start stockpiling them.

Therefore, I am not sure the suppliers have to increase their own production by orders of magnitude to meet Airbus' needs.

If A388 sales restart robustly, then Airbus can probably maintain that production rate and get planes into customer's hands quickly.

If A388 sales restart sluggishly, then Airbus can work with their suppliers to a more manageable level of supply once the initial backlog is taken care of.

Quoting WINGS (Reply 53): What I find rather ironic is that many members actually seem to forget (God knows why) that a great percentage of the A380 is American built, while a great part of the B787 is European built.

Another excellent point, my European friend!!  


PS...I'm still waiting for the Convair jets tribute!!!!!

Quoting NorCal (Reply 54): All Ikramerica was doing blablabla

Read reply 46: the posts I was replying to were deleted, it wasn't a reaction to Ikramerica's post.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 57): but somehow your tone is different when they talk about the 748i, for example...

Huh? Examples please?

Wow, looks like this thread is actually returning to the original points of discussion and pulling away from the flamewar that started. I would rather read the opinions of Keesje, Ikramerica, Astuteman and Airbazar than childish acusations relating to the flag next to someone's name. Here's hoping this thread stays on track.

I hope that the A380 will get on track and there are no further delays to the delivery schedule. I also hope that the 748 gets some non-cargo orders soon since I really like the shape of that plane, but that could be because of the flag in front of my name...  . Only joking around, Ciao

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 35): Aircraft outside of the US don't burn Jet-A?

No, they don't.

Quoting A342 (Reply 54): Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 35): Aircraft outside of the US don't burn Jet-A? No, they don't.

I assume you are nitpicking. The point is all jet aircraft use oil-based fuels, be it "Jet A" , "Jet A-1" or whatever.

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 13): Just because airlines are replacing 747's will smaller 777's or 330's today doesn' mean they won't be needing an A380 in the future in order to cope with increased demand.

True, but just because demand is growing for air travel doesn't mean all airlines around the world will need to fly larger jets. The market for VLA has remained steady...

There is evidence of this.

Number of 744 pax models delivered: 448
Number of 747 classic models delivered: 457
Both models were delivered for about 18 years.

Notice how, despite an exponential growth in air travel around the world since 1970, the number of pax 747s sold from 1988 did not increase at all compared to the number of the previous versions.

(I exclude the 45 747SPs because it is not a VLA)

And the 747SR/D market declined over time. 33 747SR declined to only 19 744D.

The picture is also interesting for cargo and combi/convertible aircraft:
Cargo 744s ordered (delivered/remaining to be): 166 (126/40)
Cargo 747 classics delivered: 73
Combi/convertible 744s delivered: 61
Combi/convertible 747 classics delivered: 112

The demand for combi/convertible VLAs was cut in half over time as freighter conversions of midsize and larger jets began in the 80s.

But new build freighter demand doubled.

And unfortunately for Airbus and the A380, the 744F and 748F continued to win orders (84 undelivered) in the past few years.

If Airbus were to capture 100% of the 747 replacement (which has a growth neutral history) of 450 jets, and then 100% of the doubled VLA F model market for 20 years (330 jets), they would meet the 750 jet goal + 30. Unfortunately, Boeing has already taken 84 of those F sales away. That leaves under 700 frames for Airbus, and there is no reason to believe they will capture 100% of the remaining VLA pax and F market for the next 15 years. Even if they capture 80% of it, that's only 560 frames. Profitable? Yes, but not worth the investment (5.5% ROI...)

It is why, in my opinion, the projections are unreasonable, and Airbus is going to learn the same lesson Boeing did in the early 70s with over capacity (production) of the 747.

Quoting BillReid (Reply 23): Ok great news for A. They will sell 150 A380's. while B will sell 2000 B787. I fail to see this as a win for A.

Erm, you seem to have mixed yourself up here in the excitment. An A380 and a 787 are completely different types of aircraft. Maybe you should have put A will sell 1000 A350's and B will sell 1000 787's and less 777's due to the A350 entering the market. And I'm sure A have already sold 150 380's??

D.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 32): If Airbus were to capture 100% of the 747 replacement (which has a growth neutral history) of 450 jets, and then 100% of the doubled VLA F model market for 20 years (330 jets), they would meet the 750 jet goal + 30.

I am skeptical about the A380 prospects too. However, I would like to point out that looking at the past demand for 747 100/200/300, then 747-400, and assuming that VLA demand for the next 18-20 years will be the same is a rather simplistic extrapolation.

The demand for A380s is conditional on its operational performance and we have yet to see it in operation.

Then airlines have to feel pressure to increase seat counts for departures in high traffic routes. That pressure needs to build up enough to make an A380 order attractive. Then we will see A380 orders based on rational economics.

48 frames per year by 2010? Anyone looking for Ocean Front Property in Arizona? LOL.   

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 32): True, but just because demand is growing for air travel doesn't mean all airlines around the world will need to fly larger jets. The market for VLA has remained steady...

I never said that or intended to imply that. The VLA market is a niche market, even smaller than the current 747 market. Some airlines will have a need for it but most won't.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 32): Notice how, despite an exponential growth in air travel around the world since 1970, the number of pax 747s sold from 1988 did not increase at all compared to the number of the previous versions.

But you can't possibly compare the 70's with the present. Airports were nowhere nearly as busy as they are today so increased frequency was used to increase capacity. But as all major airports start to approach capacity and as the population in general increases it's opposition to airport expansion, I suspect that increased frequency will no longer be an option for coping with increased demand.

All I'm saying is that in 20 years there will be a market for very large aircraft, significantly greater that what we have today. How many, no one will know for sure.

This is Keeje's second "feel good" thread in as many days. He has come back in STYLE!!   

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):

...A very cute picture of Airbus' cheerleaders. That's "Keesje" on the right, with "Johnny" in the back waving his arms... "PlaneHunter" on the left... "

OK - my first sarcastic A-net post. 'Hope you like the good clean fun. Or will I get DELETED...?

Meanwhile:

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter): The acceleration of the delivery programme is aimed at making up for the two-year delay due to technical problems that have slowed the A380's progress

This REALLY needs to happen for Airbus to turn around the projected cost of the delay to the project, which is estimated in the billions. I had been wondering, if the wiring issues are now solved, if they can ramp up production from their current sluggish projections for the first few years.

That, and ADDITIONAL ORDERS for the 380 will be actually be something to cheer about.

I know DEL will be ready by 2008 to handle the A380, so IT can start their A380 service from here, though their A380s are a long ways away from delivery.

I wonder if any other airline will fly in their A380 into DEL??!!

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 36): But you can't possibly compare the 70's with the present.

No, I'm comparing 1988-2006 with 1970-1988, and showing that in the second period, VLA pax aircraft sales were the same as the first period despite rapid growth in all areas of the world and in air travel in general.

History does not demonstrate that population growth nor economic growth worldwide leads to increased demand for VLA (400+ pax). It does show it leads to increased demand in small (100-200), medium (200-300), and large (300-400) aircraft.

There is little reason to believe this trend will not continue. This is not to say that 500 VLA won't be sold, but it does show that it's not a 1 to 1 replacement for 747s PLUS new frames, but will rely on a plenty of new customers while 747s are replaced with some A380s and many smaller jets. This has been the trend in the past.

The question is, are there 8-10 more EK's out there in the next 15 years? That's the only way Airbus could come close to selling 750 VLAs.

What does is it mean that 70 airports will be ready for WhaleJet ops by 2011? It clearly doesn't mean ready for scheduled passenger service, as that number will be roughly 25. It might mean ready to handle a WhaleJet in the case of a diversion. It probably doesn't mean ready to handle one in the event of an emergency, as that number is several hundred.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3): Anyway, there are not and never will be 800 744s that need replacing. Only 698 were ever sold. 227 of those are F or Combi models, leaving only 471 pax 744s needing to be replaced. 19 of those are D models, and will not be replaced with VLA, leaving 452. Of those, many of the oldest are already being phased out with 77Ws and 346s. Many 744s are ten years old or less, and will be with us until 2015-2022.

  
I think both Airbus and Boeing's current estimates of the size of the VLA market are wildly optimistic.

Looking at the LA and VLA market: A346, B773, B747, and A380. Assume that the total market is satisfied at the moment. Currently there are approximately (I didn't look up actual quantities):

400 747 in passenger service x 375 avg seats = 150,000 seats
120 773 in passenger service x 340 avg seats = 40,800 seats
0 380 in passenger service x 450 avg seats = 0
60 345/346 in passenger service x 330 seats = 19,800 seats
Total large aircraft seats currently = 210,600 seats

If the market is growing at 10% per year and 5% of the 747's will be retired (average 20 year life) & no 345/346/777 retirements.

Replacement of 5% 747 7,500 seats
Increase in market 10% 20,160 seats
Total new seats.year 28,560

Assume 50 773 per year @ 340 17,000 seats
10 346 per year @ 330 3,300 seats
0 747 pax per year 0 seats
Total by other lines 20,300 seats
Remaining large aircraft seats 8,260 seats
Number of 380's @ 450 seats 18.4 average per year

So if the market in larger than 772 aircraft is growing at 10% a year, 5% of the 747's are retired/converted at the 20 year mark, the 777 /346 share of the market remains the same (or taken by the 350), and no 747 pax are produced it looks like 18 to 20 380's will be needed per year. For ease let us say 20. That would indicate that 200 380's ordered in 10 years or about 360 ordered total by 2016.

That seems to indicate that the 380 production rate will drop back to around 20 per year by about 2013 after the backlog is worked off.

If they can find 40 orders per year things will be looking quite rosy for Airbus.

-Jay

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 39): No, I'm comparing 1988-2006 with 1970-1988, and showing that in the second period, VLA pax aircraft sales were the same as the first period despite rapid growth in all areas of the world and in air travel in general.

I´m not sure that e.g. 70% of the 747 market was foreseen in Asia at that time. Now almost all of those 747s need replacement and Boeing/Airbus foresee a trippling of long haul air traffic.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 39): That's the only way Airbus could come close to selling 750 VLAs.

Maybe there is more to it. Apart from Airbus also Boeing predicts 990 VLAs in the next 20 years, http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/ as are Rolls Royce (1024 aircraft) http://www.rolls-royce.com/civil_aer.../outlook/downloads/outlook2006.pdf

It is very well possible that A, B and RR are all wrong and everybody goes big twin. Or e.g. 800 of those will be a mix of Boeing 747-8´s and blended wing bodies. I think there is a slight chance that Airbus might sell a few more A380s.

Quoting BillReid (Reply 23): Ok great news for A. They will sell 150 A380's.

Quoting 777FlyGuy (Reply 20): Niche airplane. Period. If it sells in excess of 300 copies in it's lifetime it will be a shock.

Quoting Parapente (Reply 17): Yes they will sell 400 plus and get their money back -just.

Well maybe the marketing folks at Boeing, Airbus and RR see it all wrong then.

Quoting BillReid (Reply 23): Common. The real problem is selling a four engine aircraft. The reliability is the issue.

If you were true, there would not be so many 747s and 340s around... And as if those always have reliability problems... We say "come on" btw!

Quoting YULWinterSkies (Reply 43): If you were true, there would not be so many 747s and 340s around... And as if those always have reliability problems... We say "come on" btw!

The dispatch reliability of A340/B747s is roughly 98%. For A330/B777s the dispatch reliability is roughly 99%. With the advent of LROPS, there will be no advantage of a quad over a twin.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 39): History does not demonstrate that population growth nor economic growth worldwide leads to increased demand for VLA (400+ pax). It does show it leads to increased demand in small (100-200), medium (200-300), and large (300-400) aircraft.

No, history does not demonstrate that. All you got is two data points. It's like saying I went from 8 pounds to 70 pounds from zero to 10 years old, then from 70 to 140 pounds up to 20 years old. Thus I conclude I will be 210 pounds when I turn 30.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 39): There is little reason to believe this trend will not continue.

From now on it is possible that only another ZERO A380s will be sold, or many hundreds. The evidence you got is thin,

Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 41): If the market is growing at 10% per year

Interesting analysis... I like the bottom-up method.

Unfortunately, there is a flaw in your reasoning that causes you to draw the wrong conclusion from your stated assumptions. The 10% growth rate compounds over time, i.e. the size of the market doubles about every 7 years under your assumed growth rate.

Keeping all your other assumptions the same, due to this error you come up 275 frames short through 2016. The correct result of your analysis (following your stated assumptions) is 630 frames ordered by 2016.

That error aside, it does raise an interesting point: even if Boeing maxes out on 773 production near 50 frames per year, there may still be so much demand in the 'large' and 'very large' markets that the A388 will find traction. Even after Y3 and the A350-1000 hit the market in the middle of the next decade, your assumptions would suggest strong demand for the A380 unless Boeing can produce something approaching 100 Y3's per year (i.e. fully double the current 777 production rate)

I'll leave it to others to debate your assumptions, but they do suggest that a production capacity of 48 frames per year for the A380 is spot on the money  

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3): Does Airbus pay you for your PR efforts, or are they blackmailing you in some way?

Coming from Captain Boeing there.. I find this quote kind of funny.

500+ A380's................sounds a little optimistic............let's get ONE to a customer first   ! No doubt a niche plane! I even think 300+ is a stretch.

As mentioned 70 airports? ORD has already said no.............just because airlines have it planned into their route structures already doesn't mean the airports they wish to fly to will dump millions into new runways/taxiways for one flight a day!

Great analogy Wingman!!!

I do think the delay is hurting the program badly. The day a Western Hemisphere (ie: SA)">NA SA and CentA) airline orders a 380 is the day I believe the program will meet its goals.

Mike @ MSP