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leelaw
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SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 6:38 pm

...Chew [SQ's CEO] offered what sounded like a eulogy for the 747, disappointing Boeing executives keen to sell him the newest passenger model of that jumbo jet.

The 747 has been "central to the Singapore success story — the Queen of the Skies," Chew said.

"However, time does not stand still. New products come along which are more cost-effective, more fuel-efficient and feature later technology. And so, much as we love [the 747], in time, its place will be taken."

Asked if he was ruling out the forthcoming larger and revamped 747-8, he hedged somewhat, saying it was "a plane of some interest to us."

But in a conversation later aboard one of the new airplanes, he made clear he'll buy the new 747 only if the troubled A380 program collapses completely...


http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...echnology/2003452451_boeing29.html

A lot more interesting comments from Mr. Chew and Roger Seager, GE vice president of sales, about the 777, 787, and A350 are also included in this article.



Economy Cabin of New SQ 773ER

Seattle PI's article about ceremonial delivery of the 773ER to SQ:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/293995_air29.html



Singapore Airlines' Chew Choon Seng, center, and Boeing's Scott Carson, right, joke while sitting in the 777-300ER Tuesday in Everett.

[Edited 2006-11-29 10:45:24]

[Edited 2006-11-29 10:46:39]
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NW727251ADV
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 6:50 pm

I kind of have to agree with SQ. I mean as much as I love the 747 (I have more 747s added to my Flight Sim 2004 than any other plane) the old gal is getting kind of old. Its time for something new and refreshing. I realize that Boeing is only offering the -8i as an alternative for airlines that might not need/want the capacity of the A380 but frankly I am kind of getting sick of the 747 myself. 40 years is a long time. Hopefully in the next 10-15 years if the market warrants, Boeing will build its own SuperJumbo.

Moving on, I love the interior of SQs 773ERs. It looks like new colors. Brown earth tones. Looks kind of "Emiratesesque" if you will. Can't wait to see some better pics.
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WINGS
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 6:55 pm

Well this statement is something that Boeing did not need to hear at a time in which the B748i program has yet to sign up a commitment.

The statement from Mr Chew reinforces my belief that many of the premium carries that require a VLA will opt to simplify their fleet. I think that airlines such as SQ, QF and probably LH will rather misuse the A380 instead of introducing another type into it's fleet.

The statement that caught my eye was the following:

''However, time does not stand still. New products come along which are more cost-effective, more fuel-efficient and feature later technology. And so, much as we love [the 747], in time, its place will be taken."

Is Mr Chew making reference to the B744 or the B748i?

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keesje
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:12 pm

Thnx for linking, another interesting Seattle Times article. GE is saying some pretty bold things on (not) powering the A350XWB and working with Boeing on promoting the 777 over the A340-500/600 (RR powered). Apart from producing / maintaining engines, GE is a major financer in the industry.

GE used the GE90 as a basis for the Genx and GP7000 series (edited) .

RR has already indicated to be willing to develop the right engine for the XWB.

Question is, where is Pratt? Can they develop a new PW4000 version? Seems like an opportunity to me, 2013 must doable unless they drown again in a geared fan design..

[Edited 2006-11-29 11:18:52]
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PM
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:16 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
GE used the GE90 as a basis for the Genx and PW7000 series.

I'm sure you meant GP7000.
 
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PM
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:20 pm

This caught my eye.

"There is an agreement on how we'll use the GE90 engine, and that ties us to the Boeing 777," said Seager, GE vice president of sales. "It is a partnership. ... We've literally shared jointly in the airframe and the engine."

Sounds like GE couldn't offer the GE90 on the A350-1000 even if they wanted to. (Which, I'm happy to accept, they probably don't.)
 
Carpethead
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:56 pm

No real surprise, but....
What are they going to do when the 744F start getting old.
Either way the A380F looks rather unlikely but which ever way the SQ board decides Boeing will be getting some business.

Quoting WINGS (Reply 2):
I think that airlines such as SQ, QF and probably LH will rather misuse the A380

No need to misuse an A380. Use the A380 for high-demand pax flights and use multiple frequency 773ER on those that don't.
 
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:30 pm

Let's make a long story short. Right now they wont buy 748i cause the A380 programm wont collapse!
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Asturias
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:47 pm

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 6):
What are they going to do when the 744F start getting old.

Buy the B748F, I assume.. They said they weren't interested in the B748I in the foreseeable future. The freighter is another matter entirely, no?

An B777F is also a possibility I assume..

Or even an A330F. Depends on what their needs will be exactly when they retire the B744Fs.

cheers

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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 9:58 pm

Quoting TommyBP251b (Reply 7):
Let's make a long story short. Right now they wont buy 748i cause the A380 program wont collapse!

Indeed it won't. France won't let that happen. But it is pretty sad that such things even enter the thought processes of "the chief executive of Singapore Airlines, Chew Choon Seng, the influential playmaker in the world of commercial aviation".

Quote:
"The 747-8 would be a lot more interesting to us should the A380 not make it into service, given the issues that have surrounded it," Chew said. "I don't think that will be an eventuality, but you never know."
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:07 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 9):
Quote:
"The 747-8 would be a lot more interesting to us should the A380 not make it into service, given the issues that have surrounded it," Chew said. "I don't think that will be an eventuality, but you never know."

Like they would have a choice then?
 
atnight
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:12 pm

What Mr. Chew said, only confirms what I've said before.... the A380 is heads-down the preferred pax VLA and most likely no airline that has ordered the A380 will buy the B748I... with each customer that sticks to the A380, the B748I program has less of a chance to sell anything but a couple of frames... One thing that has being the A380's worst enemy might prove to be its best ally... time! As time passed and the program got more delayed, many thought that most airlines would cancel their orders and go for the B748I, but as airlines have kept confidence in the A380, time will work for the A380 and more airlines needing to replace their aging B744s will go for the A380 and eventually it may very likely be the only survivor in the VLA forcing Boeing to develop their own VLA... Of course, this will only happen in the next decade and only after the A380 secures over 400 frames (which I'm confident it will do)... Anyways, glad to see SQ keep their faith so strong on the A380...
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:19 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
Singapore Airlines' Chew Choon Seng, center, and Boeing's Scott Carson, right, joke while sitting in the 777-300ER Tuesday in Everett.

"Haha, they laughed after both realised, with thought to those having to, that they would never have to travel on long-haul economy and its incredibly tight pitch."
n
 
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:54 pm

Quoting Atnight (Reply 11):

Lots of hot air today around the message boards...

Quoting Atnight (Reply 11):
the A380 is heads-down the preferred pax VLA and most likely no airline that has ordered the A380 will buy the B748I...

Says who? hands-down? because one person said it... its hands down... well, maybe he is saying to get better pricing from Boeing. Take all these comments with a grain of salt.

Quoting Atnight (Reply 11):
with each customer that sticks to the A380, the B748I program has less of a chance to sell anything but a couple of frames...

There hasnt been a new customer forever... not since the 748 was announced. what does that say?

Quoting Atnight (Reply 11):
more airlines needing to replace their aging B744s will go for the A380

The trend for the 744 replacement is the 773ER. Not a bad deal for Boeing. Much worse for Airbus.

Quoting Atnight (Reply 11):
forcing Boeing to develop their own VLA

Not likely, look at the A380 sales... not a convincing market if you ask me.
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baroque
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 11:07 pm

Hmm, overweight, late and later but still preferable. The old girl must have some attractive features after all.

Quoting PM (Reply 5):

Sounds like GE couldn't offer the GE90 on the A350-1000 even if they wanted to. (Which, I'm happy to accept, they probably don't.)

I presume that this means that exclusivity to GE is going to be extended to any 777 replacement. If PW were to offer on the A350 that might, with existing RR plans confer an advantage on the A350??
 
parapente
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 11:08 pm

Well I for one am pleased to read these comments.Boeing do not develop new planes unless they are pushed into it. We have the 777-300er due to the A340-600.We have the 787 family due to the A330 development.I hope we will see the most interesting aircraft of my lifetime (barring concorde) The Boeing BWB forced on it due to the threat of the A380
 
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 11:09 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
Economy Cabin of New SQ 773ER

Wow, look at the size of those screens.

UA, NW, AA - are you paying attention?
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Stitch
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 11:10 pm

SQ made their intentions clear when they signed their LoI for their A388 options. As did QF when they converted their options to orders. I expect LH will do the same. And EK isn't going to switch, in whole or in part.

The 748I's future rests heavily on BA and CX and a bit less so on UA and JL. If they all choose the A388, then it is unlikely Boeing will move forward with a 2010 launch because at that point, it's going to be a piecemeal collection of orders (a few here, a couple there) that could take years to attain enough aggregate to make it worth the effort.

And every year past 2010 the 773ER and A350-1000XWB start to look better and better for most 747 fleet replacement with either a handful of A388s to handle slot-restricted hubs or, more likely, reduction in capacity to those hubs to maximize yields.
 
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 11:43 pm

Quoting Parapente (Reply 15):
Well I for one am pleased to read these comments.Boeing do not develop new planes unless they are pushed into it. We have the 777-300er due to the A340-600.We have the 787 family due to the A330 development.

Are you kidding? Boeing develops airplanes based on market potential and customer surveys, not because of Airbus. Based on your theory, please explain the 727, 757, 777, 707, 247, 377, 307...

Quote:
I hope we will see the most interesting aircraft of my lifetime (barring concorde) The Boeing BWB forced on it due to the threat of the A380

Threat? I mean, I know Airbus is just rolling in the orders and the 787 is pretty much a flop...but I wouldn't call it a threat.  Wink

In all seriousness, Airbus is the one who should be rolling out the most interesting aircraft ever to deal with the real threat of the 787.
 
CHIFLYGUY
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Wed Nov 29, 2006 11:54 pm

If, by some chance, the 748i never gets built because it can't find the buyers, that's no loss to Boeing. They haven't invested a lot in it and the business case for the 748 program is centered around the freighter, which has been a great success. Cancelling a project that isn't going anywhere early, before you've sunk a lot of cash into it, is success, not failure.
 
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:01 am

IMHO, SQ is making a prudent decision based on the niche market it has created for itself.

I am actually more fouced on the following quote:

"However, time does not stand still. New products come along which are more cost-effective, more fuel-efficient and feature later technology. And so, much as we love [the 747], in time, its place will be taken."

We have all read the representations made by Boeing that the 748I is based on the 787 engine technology and updated avionics. Why does SQ come out to state the above. Does this mean Boeing has not done enough update to 748I?

A world class airlines that makes sensible fleet decisions based on its business model and needs while providing the latest in-flight product offerings. I really hope SQ's new seats and products can lead other airlines to further improve their own products, especially the US Carriers flying internationally.
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:12 am

Quoting TommyBP251b (Reply 7):
Let's make a long story short. Right now they wont buy 748i cause the A380 programm wont collapse!

That's a short version, but certainly the story doesn't end there. Of course SQ will act in its own self-interest. But it's not the only airline out there, and these days, just because SQ orders a plane doesn't mean the whole world is going to sneeze. Jeez Louise!

The real story is whether Airbus can make money on the A380 or not. So far, the program is at a loss. It's great that almost all the airlines that have ordered it are holding on to the plane despite the delays. But what is alarming is that there are no new orders by OTHER non A380 airlines.

Airubs can't make a profit on only EK, SQ, VS, and the others. It will have to have a majority of airlines ordering it to turn a profit. And that is when the story will truly end.

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leelaw
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:18 am

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 16):
Wow, look at the size of those screens.

From Seattle PI article linked in the threadstarter:

...One highlight of the new interior is the large TV monitors for each seat -- 23 inches diagonally for first class, 15.4 inches for business class and 10.6 inches in economy.

The monitors also are equipped with a USB port and have a group of programs that allow word processing, spreadsheets and other programs that a business traveler might need.

Instead of taking out their laptop computers, passengers can work on the TV monitor and store any data using the USB port.

Another new feature is a reading light on the bottom of the TV monitor, which means passengers in the adjacent seat are not bothered by an overhead light...


[Edited 2006-11-29 16:19:21]
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Stitch
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:18 am

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 20):
Why does SQ come out to state the above. Does this mean Boeing has not done enough update to 748I?

They've done about all they can without a significant overhaul that would drive the cost through the roof and push back the EIS.

More likely, SQ is prodding both Boeing and Airbus to make the A350XWB and Y3 as good as they can because that is where SQ's future fleet will center.
 
atnight
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:21 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 13):
Lots of hot air today around the message boards...

if you say so...

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 13):
Says who? hands-down? because one person said it... its hands down... well, maybe he is saying to get better pricing from Boeing. Take all these comments with a grain of salt.

I know you still hope for such miracle, and I won't take that away from you, but all information so far indicates that SQ won't be ordering any more B747s at all... To SQ, the B747 type had its time and place... if they were looking for a Boeing deal, don't you think Boeing already offered it to them? What you did see is SQ starting to work into getting more A380s.... (but trust me, I do take news with a grain of salt....)

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 13):
There hasnt been a new customer forever... not since the 748 was announced. what does that say?

Granted, no new customers for the A380.... (I guess additional commitments from QF and SQ don't seem a big deal to you....) But, don't forget the A380 program has being in MAJOR crisis... why would new customers jump into the program when its in a huge uncertainty.... BUT EVEN THEN, with many factors against the A380, NOT ONE airline has jumped into buying the B748i... WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU?

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 13):
The trend for the 744 replacement is the 773ER. Not a bad deal for Boeing. Much worse for Airbus.

So why your past arguments if you yourself believe that the B744 won't be replaced by B748Is but with B773ERs.... I guess you already have given up on B748I, so what's left is that you are very discontent with the idea of the A380 being the only VLA pax ordered.... thanks for letting us know your frustration...

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 13):
Not likely, look at the A380 sales... not a convincing market if you ask me.

Trust me, Boeing will in time develop their next all-new VLA of their own (and I know it will be an amazing aircraft, looking foward already to it!).... Which if you read what I wrote, I gave you the guidelines that I believe will be in place for them to develop such aircraft.... the "no-market for VLA" that you are thinking is true if the world would stand still forever, with no growth, no projections, etc.. in 10 years, we'll see who was right....
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:26 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 14):
Hmm, overweight, late and later but still preferable. The old girl must have some attractive features after all.

It's called a very low price when launch discounts and penalties are taken into consideration.  Wink
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jacobin777
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:37 am

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
But in a conversation later aboard one of the new airplanes, he made clear he'll buy the new 747 only if the troubled A380 program collapses completely...



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 10):

Like they would have a choice then?

He better hope the A380 program will come out well..otherwise he's toast because he's going to be paying up the ole' wazoo for new 748's....

Chew has made his bed, now he will have to sleep in it...

Quoting CHIFLYGUY (Reply 19):
If, by some chance, the 748i never gets built because it can't find the buyers, that's no loss to Boeing. They haven't invested a lot in it and the business case for the 748 program is centered around the freighter, which has been a great success. Cancelling a project that isn't going anywhere early, before you've sunk a lot of cash into it, is success, not failure.

 checkmark ...The 748F is doing wonders..and just by keeping the 748I, it applies a lot of margin pressure on potential new A380 sales.....if Boeing had nothing to offer, then Airbus could charge maximum price on frames..that being said, considering "break even" is 420+ frames, I doubt they will break on the program....
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:39 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 14):
Hmm, overweight, late and later but still preferable. The old girl must have some attractive features after all.

The fact that the first few are coming with delay compensation compounded on top of the already discounted launch customer price sure doesn't hurt either. When you factor in all these reductions, for the airlines that had launch orders the A380 will come at a undeniably attractive cost which the 748I just can't compete with. It's a no brainer that they're ordering more.
 
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:52 am

I wouldn't go so far as to say the A380 is out of the woods. It has garnered no new orders in quite some time. Yes the follow on orders from SQ and QF are important but that isn't going to get this project to 450 frames. Airbus needs new customers and so far they have none. Some people seem to think that BA is in the bag, but I wouldn't be so quick to jump to that conclusion. Same goes for Cathay. Even if these carriers both order the A380 it won't be as a one to one replacement so they will most likely order the 747-8I or 777-300ER as these are the only two other aircraft that can meat the capacity needs of replacing a 747-400. If this is the case then the real looser is Airbus as it doesn't field a worthy competitor in the 777-300ER class which guarantees a sale to Boeing.
 
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:54 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 9):
Indeed it won't. France won't let that happen. But it is pretty sad that such things even enter the thought processes of "the chief executive of Singapore Airlines, Chew Choon Seng, the influential playmaker in the world of commercial aviation".

 checkmark 

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 26):
if Boeing had nothing to offer, then Airbus could charge maximum price on frames..that being said, considering "break even" is 420+ frames,

420* frames you mean. Depending on exchange rate (currently very bad), and pricing pressure, currently strong with the 748i being present as an alternative. Given the 420 frame number was based on an exchange of $1.21 and the current price of the euro is $1.30 the break-even, today is 451 assuming airbus gets the margin they want.
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billreid
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 1:00 am

I am curious could the A380 become the MD-11?
If so then we do have a possible complete collapse with a few birds passing from company to company.

We still remain with no way to bring a A380 into LAX because of the spacing at the gates. The solution has been to remote park the acft on the hard stand and bus pax to the TBIT.

So lets see, what high yielding pax in F or C is going to add two hours to his trip just to go A380?
Answer NONE.

The high yielding Pax may be the death to this.

I conctantly hear everyone argue for every point on the A380 forgetting customer service and yield management. The assumptions made by many people forget that the high yielding pax will be the ones who make or break the plane.

So the A380 will fly to several high density markets, and be eliminated from 98% of the wordls airports because under airport rates and fees the tenant airlines will not fund costly changes into airport infrastructure.
Some people don't get it. Business is about making MONEY!
 
jacobin777
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 1:05 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 29):
420* frames you mean. Depending on exchange rate (currently very bad), and pricing pressure, currently strong with the 748i being present as an alternative. Given the 420 frame number was based on an exchange of $1.21 and the current price of the euro is $1.30 the break-even, today is 451 assuming airbus gets the margin they want.

Hence the "+" after the 420.. Wink

I don't believe one bit its 420 frames..probably between 450-475...

If starting the entire project from scratch was costing Airbus only "250 +/- 10% frames" (as Airbus stated), then even with the delays and penalities, how has the price gone up by a whopping 75% to break even..especially since all the infrastructure, training, R&D, legal costs, etc was already in place.... confused 

For the amount of frames its costing Airbus to break even now, they could have almost (not completely obviously) started the program from scratch.

I'm doubting Airbus' numbers here.... scratchchin 
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PlaneHunter
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 1:13 am

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 18):
Are you kidding? Boeing develops airplanes based on market potential and customer surveys, not because of Airbus. Based on your theory, please explain the 727, 757, 777, 707, 247, 377, 307...

It's not like Airbus is Boeing's first ever competitor. And if you believe it or not, competition does accelerate progress and the development of new technology.

Quoting BillReid (Reply 30):
So lets see, what high yielding pax in F or C is going to add two hours to his trip just to go A380?

Two additional hours because of remote parking? I don't think the LAX-bound A380s will be parked at ONT...  Wink


PH
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semobeila
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 1:18 am

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 20):
We have all read the representations made by Boeing that the 748I is based on the 787 engine technology and updated avionics. Why does SQ come out to state the above. Does this mean Boeing has not done enough update to 748I?

Obviously they have not done enough updates. Seems to me like the same reason the initial draft of the A350 based on the A330 has not been successful. It's not all about updating engines and avionics...

[Edited 2006-11-29 17:21:43]
 
airbazar
Posts: 10250
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 1:27 am

Quoting BillReid (Reply 30):
So lets see, what high yielding pax in F or C is going to add two hours to his trip just to go A380?
Answer NONE.

LAX is only one of many airports that will see the A380. What are you smoking? Seriously, today many aricraft with plenty of high yield customers park at remote stands. Just you try to be on a delayed arrival into LHR and it's very likely you'll be on a remote stand. In SXM it takes 30 minutes to offload a Corsair 747 via stairs, with 500+ passengers on board. Where do you get the 2 hours?

But as far as LAX, I was under the impression that they will have 2 A380 gates ready by the end of 2007. Is that not the case? And then there's the issue of alternatives for the passengers. If you're flying from Australia to LA, somehow I don't think high yield passengers will rather go via a 3rd city in order to avoid QF's A380's. That's just absurd. In the end, if LAX is not ready, it will be LAX's loss not the A380's. They're the ones who'll get the black eye from the passengers, not the A380. Other airlines too will do what SQ is expected to do if LAX is not ready, fly their A380's to SFO.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 1:41 am

Quoting Atnight (Reply 24):
the "no-market for VLA" that you are thinking is true if the world would stand still forever, with no growth, no projections, etc.. in 10 years, we'll see who was right....

Indeed we will. Oil is up to $62/bbl as I write this, and there are no futures selling for less (see: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=CL), which means the market expects continued increases. At these prices, we may well see very few VLA sales.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
Ken777
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 1:48 am

A bit early, I think, to write off the 748i.

Airlines looking at the 748i and 380 today will be face with the facts that Boeing can offer launch discounts and Airbus needs to finally pull in orders that have gross margins that will help pay off the plane's development costs at a meaningful level. Looks like some significant pricing for the airlines.

A failure on Airbus' part to aggressively address development costs of the 380 could well turn into a larger problem for the company than the current delays. It's time for this young gal to start producing with each new order and there is going to be that old gal from Boeing making it harder to do.

There is also a need to look at pax loads on various routes. Having flown on a lot of fairly empty 744s over the years I think "abusing" the 380 could be a very expensive option when fuel prices are on the upswing. A third full 380 may end up being a major selling point for the 777 and, maybe, 748i.

The 380 isn't a slam dunk over the 748i until it has proven that it delivers significantly more profits to the airlines than the 748i and the fat lady isn't ready to sing for quite a while.
 
mrcomet
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 1:55 am

SIA and Chew's comments on the 748 is only making clear what they have said before -- they want two healthy manufacturers and the A380 is critical to Airbus's success.

The 748 like the A380 is a niche plane and there is still probably a clear niche for it with some airline. It has the same problem the A340 has (four engines) and great competition next to it (the 777). It never was expected to sell too many (I think Boeing estimated 300) and its well on its way to that goal as a freighter.

I wouldn't give up on the bird regardless of what SIA said. There are likely some people who see it as fitting their niche (UA? BA?). After the A380 starts to fly, it may prove to be very expensive to operate for the airline that fails to keep it full.

In the end, Boeing is going back to their old ways of not discounting their widebodies which will cost them in sales. However, sales really isn't the issue right now. They are swamped with close to another record year. They really need to look at production.
The dude abides
 
atnight
Posts: 537
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 2:03 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 35):
Indeed we will. Oil is up to $62/bbl as I write this, and there are no futures selling for less (see: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=CL), which means the market expects continued increases. At these prices, we may well see very few VLA sales.

And what does that mean? What is cheaper in regards to fuel? 2 787s or 1 A380 to carry similar amount of people? You are using the wrong argument to say that VLAs won't sell... try something else buddy... and while in the subject, I guess the projection for the next 20 years of both Boeing and Airbus regarding VLA are WAY OFF in your opinion..... I guess both companies are wrong and you and a few other a.netters are right on track.... glad to know I can count on you to predict the future...
B707 B727 B733/5/7/8/9 B742/4 B752/3 B763/4 B772 A310 A318/319/320 A332 A343 MD80 DC9/10 CRJ200 ERJ145 ERJ-170 Be1900 Da
 
JakTrax
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 2:22 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 13):
There hasnt been a new customer forever... not since the 748 was announced. what does that say?

'Not having a new customer' is nowhere near as bad as 'not having a single customer'...

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 13):
Not likely, look at the A380 sales... not a convincing market if you ask me.

And neither was the 747 originally. Too big, won't fly safely, too heavy, not enough demand...

Quoting SparkingWave (Reply 21):
But what is alarming is that there are no new orders by OTHER non A380 airlines.

At the moment, I'd say potential customers are simply waiting to see what happens with all the delays. They will watch with interest how the launch airlines go on and then, you can almost guarantee, more orders will surface.

Karl
 
ORDagent
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 2:27 am

My EK sales rep was just in my office. She told me that EK won't cancel the order as they are desperate for more lift especially out of NYC as they want to move the 340-500s and 777s to markets like IAH (petrochemical industry) and the west coast LAX/SFO. They are also looking at YYZ and even ORD (PLEASE!!!!). They are working very closely with Airbus to get those aircraft ASAP. She told me they were also being reimbursed due to Aibus blowing the delivery schedule.
 
zvezda
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 2:28 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 10):
Like they would have a choice then?

If the event that the WhaleJet is never delivered to SQ, they would have a choice other than buying the B747-8I SuperJumbo: buying more B777-300ERs and buying one more early morning LHR slot.

Quoting SparkingWave (Reply 21):
Airubs can't make a profit on only EK, SQ, VS, and the others.

Especially not on VS.

Quoting Atnight (Reply 24):
But, don't forget the A380 program has being in MAJOR crisis... why would new customers jump into the program when its in a huge uncertainty.... BUT EVEN THEN, with many factors against the A380, NOT ONE airline has jumped into buying the B748i... WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU?

The VLA market is a small niche.

Quoting Atnight (Reply 38):
What is cheaper in regards to fuel? 2 787s or 1 A380 to carry similar amount of people?

Two B787s would consume less fuel than one WhaleJet carrying the same number of passengers on the same route.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 2:29 am

Quoting Atnight (Reply 38):
And what does that mean? What is cheaper in regards to fuel? 2 787s or 1 A380 to carry similar amount of people?

Irrelevant. The question is which provides the most revenue when ticket prices are high - a full B787 or a half-empty A380?

Quoting Atnight (Reply 38):
I guess the projection for the next 20 years of both Boeing and Airbus regarding VLA are WAY OFF in your opinion....

I absolutely do think they are off in the 10-year frame at least, probably in the 20-year as well.

Quoting Atnight (Reply 38):
glad to know I can count on you to predict the future...

I provided a link to the oil futures market. Argue with them, not me.  Smile
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
miamix707
Posts: 3848
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 2:32 am

Quoting Atnight (Reply 11):
What Mr. Chew said, only confirms what I've said before....

This should be the official definition of armchair CEO  Silly

Funny, just because some would rather see one aircraft over the other they start throwing their pom-poms in the air. Besides not that SQ have said/done strange things before, like buying A333s. Thanks for reminding us that you are just another armchair expert, or "objective analyst" as you used to call youself  sarcastic 

I want to see the A380 around, but the 748I as well. Some of you who dislike the 747 will be crying and wishing there was a 747 comeback when/if it comes the time the 747 is extinct from our skies (assuming the 747i only sells a couple of frames, as our friend here "predicts")

Quoting Atnight (Reply 11):
time will work for the A380 and more airlines needing to replace their aging B744s will go for the A380 and eventually it may very likely be the only survivor in the VLA forcing Boeing to develop their own VLA... Of course, this will only happen in the next decade and only after the A380 secures over 400 frames (which I'm confident it will do)... Anyways, glad to see SQ keep their faith so strong on the A380...

First of all, as it is now, there's barely a market for one VLA. Most airlines seem to be replacing 747s with 777s, not with A380s. If over the next decade Airbus ever sells 400 A380s (we'll see), the market will be even smaller in order for Boeing to decide to launch a VLA, unless it's some revolutionary aircraft and much more economic than the 380. Not to mention aircraft efficiency would probably have to increase at a much faster rate for that to happen.

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 13):
Quoting Atnight (Reply 11):


Lots of hot air today around the message boards...

Quoting Atnight (Reply 11):
the A380 is heads-down the preferred pax VLA and most likely no airline that has ordered the A380 will buy the B748I...

Says who? hands-down? because one person said it... its hands down... well, maybe he is saying to get better pricing from Boeing. Take all these comments with a grain of salt.

Quoting Atnight (Reply 11):
with each customer that sticks to the A380, the B748I program has less of a chance to sell anything but a couple of frames...

There hasnt been a new customer forever... not since the 748 was announced. what does that say?

 checkmark 
 
miamix707
Posts: 3848
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2003 2:22 pm

RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 2:34 am

Quoting Parapente (Reply 15):
hope we will see the most interesting aircraft of my lifetime (barring concorde) The Boeing BWB forced on it due to the threat of the A380

I don't want to see such a ugly spaceship and the thought of traveling on such a thing.. Interesting? yea I guess..

Quoting Atnight (Reply 24):
I know you still hope for such miracle, and I won't take that away from you, but all information so far indicates that SQ won't be ordering any more B747s at all...

SQ doesn't have to order it for other airlines to want it. The only miracle here is when 744 operators start replacing those with A380s AND reaching 400.. We won't take that wish away from you either, so you can be happy  Smile

Quoting Atnight (Reply 24):
so what's left is that you are very discontent with the idea of the A380 being the only VLA pax ordered.... thanks for letting us know your frustration...

I wouldn't be so, uhum.. arrogant and tell him that when the only person who seems discontent with gloomy prospect for more A380 operators is you, making wishes for unlikely things and saying "I told you so's!"

Quoting BillReid (Reply 30):
I am curious could the A380 become the MD-11?

Right now it's following the same path. The question I have is, would it be feasible to convert them to freighters? Can the A380 be as popular as the MD11 is as a freighter?
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 2:41 am

Quoting MIAMIx707 (Reply 44):
The question I have is, would it be feasible to convert them to freighters? Can the A380 be as popular as the MD11 is as a freighter?

Clearly not. The tonne/mile costs of the A380F are not competitive. It's looking like the A380F will probably never be built.
 
User avatar
solnabo
Posts: 5025
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RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 2:54 am

If that´s the case of the 380 program and the 1st 388 flying Oct 2007, Boeing can wave goodbye to the 748i for SQ...

U better work harder on these damn wires, Airbus!

Micke//  Smile
Airbus SAS - Love them both
 
osiris30
Posts: 2681
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 3:06 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 31):
how has the price gone up by a whopping 75% to break even..especially since all the infrastructure, training, R&D, legal costs, etc was already in place....

Three reasons for the cost jump (I believe in order of impact):

a) USD/Eu conversion rate. This has had a HUGE swing..
b) Lower margin dollars/price per unit sold. I think Airbus vastly overestimated what airlines would willingly pay for a relatively high-risk aircraft (the bigger and aircraft gets the riskier it gets for it's carrier)
c) Costs and compensation relating to the delays.

The number is likely to go even higher as Airbus has a bunch of hedges they purchased for the 380 that will have expired worthlessly by the time the money is actually received now, but that will never show up under the program on the books, even though it's a very real cost.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
khobar
Posts: 1336
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 4:12 am

RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 3:37 am

I'm curious as to why Chew mentioned the A380 program future at all as a clarifier with regards to the 748i. If Chew has confidence that the A380 is as Airbus has claimed, then mentioning it is completely unnecessary - a simple "we are not interested in the 748i. We're taken care of, thanks" would suffice. Instead he says:

"The 747-8 would be a lot more interesting to us should the A380 not make it into service, given the issues that have surrounded it," Chew said. "I don't think that will be an eventuality, but you never know."

At this point, with what Airbus has claimed regarding the A380, what would prevent it from making it into service?
 
osiris30
Posts: 2681
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

RE: SQ: No 748I Buy Unless A380 Program Collapses

Thu Nov 30, 2006 3:46 am

Quoting Khobar (Reply 48):
"The 747-8 would be a lot more interesting to us should the A380 not make it into service, given the issues that have surrounded it," Chew said. "I don't think that will be an eventuality, but you never know."

At this point, with what Airbus has claimed regarding the A380, what would prevent it from making it into service?

Alright I know I'll get flamed for saying this, but frankly I really don't give a s**t anymore about getting flamed.

Something doesn't smell right. You have SQ singing the praises of the 380 in the last couple of days, with 'well duh!' sorts of statements... But all these quotes have interesting little 'hrmmmm???' things about them. The quote above is just outright strange. The quote by the Airbus Exec the other day (that I got flamed like there was no tomorrow over), was another 'hrmmmm???' type statement.

This is starting to get a real 'the emperor has no clothes' flavor to it. Now maybe it's just all language barrier issues, I don't know.. but a lot of people are making a lot of strange noise.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)

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