kaitak
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Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Thu Nov 30, 2006 5:58 am

Well, folks, the whole plot thickens and MO'L is giving us plenty to think about! Let's start with a new thread here and see where we end up ...

As we come into December with 23 threads under our belt (and what an interesting year it's been!), it's clear 2006 is going to go out with a bang, not a whimper. There are a lot more developments left in this whole EI/FR saga for a start and we'll be looking at how this unfolds over the next few days.

What's to come: well, I think - as Poitin suggested in the last thread - we're likely to see a new EI board and that's going to have ramifications for the future shape of the airline's executive/top brass.

That's really going to define December; I'm not sure if the govt is planning any major policy announcements (yeah, that'll happen - without being prodded constantly), but hopefully the US DOT will issue its proposals on the new foreign ownership rules, so hopefully that will clear away some doubt and allow some clarity as to what is going to happen next year.

I had hoped, by now, that EI would have announced its new long haul fleet, but I don't see that happening this year; I guess they're waiting to see how the O/S issue turns out (which, when you think about it, doesn't make a lot of sense, because they won't have whatever they order until 2012-13 or so).

Anyway, all that and more will probably not be revealed in this thread, but let's move ahead anyway ...
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Thu Nov 30, 2006 6:12 am

The long-haul order should be announced this December, which has been rumoured since September but I think EI would be foolish to wait for OS as that could be a long way away yet. Maybe they are waiting for the XWB launch and more news on the 787-10 which is understandable.

By now I would have expected those 3 or 4 A330s to be ordered that DM mentioned before the FR bid. Maybe DM lost those aircraft to another airline while Aer Lingus was busy with FR and MO'L.
The new product should also be announced soon (winter) but I expect that to come when they order new interim A330s or the 787/XWB.

There's been no news on routes to Asia since early this year, it's all been about the US routes such as PHL, MIA and SFO and we all know why that's on hold.  Yeah sure
 
kaitak
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Thu Nov 30, 2006 2:02 pm

Very interesting comment from DM - and in my view, a very significant shift.

He says that EI will now have to treat FR as a partner. It will be very interesting to see the ramifications of this. I'm hoping this will have an effect in the way they co-operate on developing long haul, as indeed MO'L suggested in his initial proposal. I think that with the passage of time, DM and Aer Lingus have had time to get over the initial shock and consider the likely benefits to EI of having FR on board. Of course, the fact that FR is going to be entitled to board positions does make a difference, but I really hope they can both come together, sit down and work out an arrangement.

If FR could get a significant discount from Boeing for a significantly larger t/a fleet than EI is currently planning, that would be a major step forward. EI does, however, need to protect its t/a reputation and make sure FR understands that there needs to be a J Class service, among other issues. However, I'm sure that the two can come together and develop a working relationship, but it can't be all "give" on EI's side.

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independe...p3?ca=35&si=1732642&issue_id=14944
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Thu Nov 30, 2006 5:57 pm

That was what I was worried about when FR tried to take over EI. I would hate to see all of Aer Lingus plans to get a new J class and improve services be chucked out because FR is a low cost airline and doesn't believe in spending money on J class.
I like the Aer Lingus and Ryanair partnership idea. Both airlines could get a lot out of it but I am worried that EI short-haul could suffer, not from Ryanair competition but from cut backs in service but hopefully lower fares will come out of this and money for both airlines at the end of each year.
Now that DM has said that the two airlines will be treated like partners, can plans for Aer Lingus finally move forward?
 
kaitak
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Thu Nov 30, 2006 6:29 pm

MO'L is a businessman and I am sure he realises that there is money in J Class, if it's done properly; the problem with EI's J Class over the past few years is that they've let J Class lie fallow, without any new investment - same old seats, carpet which defies belief and a generally uninspiring product. When you get the ultimate in low cost carriers saying (as FR did, in its initial proposal for EI) that its long haul product needs an overhaul, you know it's time to face facts; it really needs an upgrade.

What I want to see is expansion. The whole brouhaha over Open Skies and US access needs to be sorted out - and quickly. Pressure needs to be applied by the govt on the EU and that needs to be done now; we know what the situation is and there's no point in wasting time fretting over it. Open Skies is dead, at least for the next two years, so we need to focus on getting new routes. And not just westbound either, but eastbound too.
 
jwmd123
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:08 pm

I wonder has MOL angered the EU by going above 20%


EU delays Ryanair Aer Lingus decision

November 30, 2006 10:41
The European Commission has delayed a decision on Ryanair's proposed purchase of Aer Lingus from December 6 to December 20 in order to consider possible remedies, it said this morning.

The proposed remedies would fix anti-competitive problems identified by the Commission. The extra time allows customers and competitors to comment on the proposed remedies.


Despite building up a 25% stake in Aer Lingus, shareholders opposed to the Michael O'Leary-led bid still own over 46% of the airline.
 
smokeyrosco
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Thu Nov 30, 2006 9:19 pm

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2):
the fact that FR is going to be entitled to board positions does make a difference

FR is not entitled to a place on the bored and they can have no say in EI's direction if the board doesn't want to listen to them according the the Indo today.
John Hancock
 
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OA260
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Thu Nov 30, 2006 9:32 pm

Hi guys I just joined today and have been reading these threads for months now. I find them very interesting. I have to say that I dont want to see FR take over EI as I think it would be bad for EI and for competition at DUB . I hope that EI will get its T/A routes that it wants and new A/C. I would like to see 787's even though im an Airbus fan I only like the A320 and A380. The A330 is quite small for long haul in my opinion. Although the EI A330 is very comfortable in C class.

I like the EI product in general and I think they have come through alot these last years. The service level seems to be back to normal. I was Gold Circle for 8 years but gave up when they ditched C class on Europe flights. I flew DUB to BCN last week. It was my first EI flight in ages and I loved it. I like the seat selection when you book also and the staff were very friendly. I just hope that nothing knocks EI off course. I think if FR got hold of EI we would see the old days of lightning strikes and bad moral in the staff and we would be back to square one again.
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Thu Nov 30, 2006 10:59 pm

Welcome OA260!

Quoting OA260 (Reply 7):
It was my first EI flight in ages and I loved it. I like the seat selection when you book also and the staff were very friendly.

I hadn't been on Aer Lingus for a few years until 2005 and I was so happy with the service compared to the service that I experienced around 2000/1. The new seat selection is great and the ability to see how busy your flights are is also a nice addition to aerlingus.com.
The staff on all my recent flights with EI have been much better than a few years ago and there much more chatty, I was talking to an F/A for most of a flight between LHR-ORK.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 4):
the problem with EI's J Class over the past few years is that they've let J Class lie fallow, without any new investment - same old seats, carpet which defies belief and a generally uninspiring product.

I'm sure there was some sort of update. The seats which can be seen on old aircraft like EI-SHN and EI-JFK are different to EI-DAA, EI-EWR and EI-CRK. It's a slight change and too be honest I prefer the seats that are on EI-JFK and poor old EI-SHN.

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © B.Nazim


http://www.planepictures.net/netshow.php?id=430565
Does anyone when these seats were added and why the other A330s have not changed.
 
EIBoston
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Thu Nov 30, 2006 11:40 pm

looking at the picture of J Class from the old EI-SNN it has 36 J seats. All of EI's 330's have only 24 now correct? At least from what I have seen. (and I've been on almost 50 t/a flights in the last 6/7 years.)
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Thu Nov 30, 2006 11:43 pm

There used to be a lot more seats in EI premier but I was on EI JFK last year and there less seats but they were the same style as EI-SHN whereas when I went to Dubai it was totally different.
 
pilot21
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Thu Nov 30, 2006 11:46 pm

Quoting EIBoston (Reply 9):
looking at the picture of J Class from the old EI-SNN it has 36 J seats. All of EI's 330's have only 24 now correct? At least from what I have seen. (and I've been on almost 50 t/a flights in the last 6/7 years.)

Correct
When J class was network wide, the higher J class aircraft (not sure which reg's) were used mainly on the JFK flights because they could fill them very easily, but it made aircraft scheduling problems a bit of an issue. With J class now gone in Europe, EI doesn't have to worry about people going from the US via DUB to their end point, so it was easier to standardise on the 24 seat layout and makes for much easier scheduling.
Aircraft I've flown: A300/A310/A320/A321/A330/A340/B727/B732/B733/B734/B735/B738/B741/B742/B744/DC10/MD80/IL62/Bae146/AR
 
EIBoston
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Thu Nov 30, 2006 11:53 pm

Thanks Pilot21, that makes sense.
 
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OA260
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 12:14 am

I have to say I loved the Green Leather seats when I flew Premier around 4 years ago. It was very comfortable. On the way back we had non leather seats and even though they were comfortable I just prefer the leather ones. It made EI different than the others. The waterford crystal and fine bone china and the amenity kit. It really was a nice experience.
 
pilot21
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 12:15 am

Incidentally EIBoston

Not sure if you have noticed, but my sister lives in Boston and so has availed of EI's upgrade offer out of Logan a few times. Regardless of what fare you paid to fly with EI on the BOS-DUB route (from what I know), EI most of the time have an upgrade to Business option for $600 (oneway), which makes the offer very attractive if you got the economy seat for $200 or so.
I have never seen this out of JFK or DUB, and I'm not sure how well known they make this offer, but apparently you can ask at the reservation desk at Logan, and most of the time the offer is available.

Just a money saving offer for anybody heading back from Boston

[Edited 2006-11-30 16:16:42]
Aircraft I've flown: A300/A310/A320/A321/A330/A340/B727/B732/B733/B734/B735/B738/B741/B742/B744/DC10/MD80/IL62/Bae146/AR
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 12:26 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 13):
I have to say I loved the Green Leather seats when I flew Premier around 4 years ago. It was very comfortable. On the way back we had non leather seats and even though they were comfortable I just prefer the leather ones.

I like the current cloth/leather seats they have on EI-EWR and EI-DAA. The leather ones (EI-JFK) must have been cheaper to clean and maintain but for long flights you can stick to leather seats so the cloth ones where favoured but the all leather seats look smarter.

Here is a Trip Report from a few months ago with a link to some pictures of meals and the "older" seats on Aer Lingus A332 EI-LAX.
http://www1.airliners.net/discussions/trip_reports/read.main/81410/

[Edited 2006-11-30 16:27:39]
 
Toulouse
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 12:29 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 7):
I think if FR got hold of EI we would see the old days of lightning strikes and bad moral in the staff and we would be back to square one again.

Welcome OA260. Great to see yet another member who shares my same beliefs if a future were to come about in which FR controls EI.

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 8):
The staff on all my recent flights with EI have been much better than a few years ago and there much more chatty,

To be honest Shamrock350, I have always found EI crews to be amongst the friendliest around. Nevertheless, I do agree there was a definite lack in morale back around 2000-2003, which was understandable given the delicate situation EI was in and then the changes brought about by WW. Yet, I managed to bring this up with a couple of EI f/a's on flights back then, I they said that was exactly the problem, they feared what was going to happen to the airline.
There is something unique about EI crews, maybe it's just an Irish trait (yet there are so many foreigners employed now, I'm not sure) but I think the best adjective to describe Aer Lingus cabin crews is "friendly". I admit when I fly AF or LX for example, I would classify the crews as "efficient". Now I'm not saying that AF/LX or similar crews aren't friendly, they just strike me as being very efficient, which is great, nor am I saying that I don't think EI crews are efficient, which they are, but they just strike me as being "friendly", which is also great, and that's why I love flying EI. The atmosphere in the cabin is always so relaxed and familiar.
Long live Aer Lingus!
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 12:40 am

Toulouse, I know what you mean about "efficient" staff. On BA they are so good at what they do and get the job done with a smile but I wouldn't dare start a chat about BA with them. Whereas EI staff are so friendly these days and get the job done to a good standard. On my last few flights I have encountered some F/As that love to talk to the passengers and make sure everything is going fine even the pilot or F/O has a few minute talk with the passengers about the aircraft we are on. Most pilots do this but I have had at least two flights when the pilot has said "This is an Airbus A320 aircraft registered EI-CVD and named st.Kevin, it was delivered to Aer Lingus on......"
 
Toulouse
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 12:54 am

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 17):
Most pilots do this but I have had at least two flights when the pilot has said "This is an Airbus A320 aircraft registered EI-CVD and named st.Kevin, it was delivered to Aer Lingus on......"

You seem to have exactly understood me Shamrock350! The pilots always come across friendly as well. Have never had that much detail from them, but it doesn't surprise me.

Have written my trip report and editted my videos (quality isn't marvelous as it's a digital camera) and made a nice video with Windows Video Maker, but then discovered that youtube.com doesn't accept that file type! Ahhhh! After all the time spent, so whenever I have time, I'll add each "interesting" video to youtube and post the trip report with the videos.
Long live Aer Lingus!
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 12:58 am

Quoting Toulouse (Reply 18):
I'll add each "interesting" video to youtube and post the trip report with the videos.

I will look forward to it! I think I have already seen one of your videos on youtube, is it called "Aer Lingus-Bordeaux-Dublin1"? I just watched one with the pilot welcoming passengers on-board.
 
EIBoston
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 1:00 am

Quoting Pilot21 (Reply 14):
Incidentally EIBoston

Not sure if you have noticed, but my sister lives in Boston and so has availed of EI's upgrade offer out of Logan a few times. Regardless of what fare you paid to fly with EI on the BOS-DUB route (from what I know), EI most of the time have an upgrade to Business option for $600 (oneway), which makes the offer very attractive if you got the economy seat for $200 or so.

I believe this is in response to AA's premier economy upgrade that they were offering on their 757 service. You could get an upgrade to the front section(domestic business class seats - as big as the EI Premier ones) for $200(150 euro) but without any extra service. You were just paying for the seat.

I flew AA for the last 2 years as my AA Platinum status allowed to have one of these seats for free. The service stopped on 28th Oct.

Thanks for the info.
 
Toulouse
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 1:01 am

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 19):
I will look forward to it! I think I have already seen one of your videos on youtube, is it called "Aer Lingus-Bordeaux-Dublin1"? I just watched one with the pilot welcoming passengers on-board.

Yeah, I put that one up after failing to put the nicely editted video with all the different videos on youtube. Just need time to upload them all.
Long live Aer Lingus!
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 1:10 am

Quoting Toulouse (Reply 21):
Yeah, I put that one up after failing to put the nicely editted video with all the different videos on youtube. Just need time to upload them all.

I thought so. I will be keeping an eye out for your TR. I should be writing one on Aer Lingus, maybe after my exams which are slowly coming to an end and should be totally finished by May I might even get a flight one of the new A330s  cloudnine 
 
Poitin
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Threa

Fri Dec 01, 2006 1:17 am

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
What's to come: well, I think - as Poitin suggested in the last thread - we're likely to see a new EI board and that's going to have ramifications for the future shape of the airline's executive/top brass.

This is the reason I am so keen to have one of us at the December 14 FR stockholders meeting. We will get a good indication of what MOL is really thinking at that meeting.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2):
He says that EI will now have to treat FR as a partner. It will be very interesting to see the ramifications of this.

Could it be that DM and MOL had a pint or two in some quiet little pub? I certainly hope so. I always said that MOL was more interested in controlling EI than owning it. What I meant, he gets to tell DM what to do, and lets DM get on with doing it.

Should that scenario develop, that is MOL is chairman and DM remains as CEO (maybe they buried their hatches and not into each others heads) perhaps we can have the best of all worlds, a relatively independent EI but with strong support from FR. I would expect this relationship to see EI refocus on long haul, and basically get out of short haul. That could be done simply by EI wet leasing FR aircraft, which would save EI a tonne of money. This means no reclining seats on short haul, but at least the paint on the outside will be green, and you'll buy your tickets from EI.

As for the influence FR would have on EI long haul, I think MOL will be willing to listen to EI's input. As for A330's, they will stay for a while, with Airbus having a much harder time selling A350's except at a really good price. My guess is EI will convert to 787's in a few years, all bought by their "partner".

And so now the Second Act of Aer Lingus, a Gaelic opera, starts. The curtain raises and Dermot storms onto stage waving a cost-cutting ax and sings his famous Aria: "This is how it's gotta be!" The SIPTU, a rebellious clan, attacks when Dermot informs them that the cost cutting that must be endured includes most of their jobs.

Does Lord Mickey ride to the rescue of Dermot and help suppress the unruly SIPTU?

I am sorry that I don't have a libretto so I can't tell you how it will turn out, but at least the singing is in English, so we will all have to sit in the audience and watch what happens. It will be interesting, I am sure.

Shhhh! The lights are going down and Dermot is about to start singing about the cost cutting. The curtain begins to rise .....

(to be continued tomorrow, once the aria is over! Big grin )
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
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OA260
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 1:59 am

Quoting Toulouse (Reply 16):
Welcome OA260. Great to see yet another member who shares my same beliefs if a future were to come about in which FR controls EI.

Thanks Toulouse, I have to say it really upset me when all these things were going on and I left Gold Circle. But i guess they had to change or go under. It looks now like there is light at the end of the tunnel unless MOL gets his hands on it. Im not anti FR as there is a place for his kind of product but he shouldnt try to mess up other carriers products either with cheap tricks. I personally would pay that bit extra for EI than FR but thats just my opinion.

I have to agree about the EI crew over other crews. The difference is with Ei you can have the ''Craic'' with them. I was on holidays last week and when I was sunbathing I was next to BA crew and I was just sick of them talking about what benefits they got and putting down other airlines other than their own. I found them full of attitude and would never want to fly BA if they were the kind of people that I would get on my flight. LX are very efficient I flew them in August and will fly them again in 10 days time. Also as my handle suggest I love OA , I know you either love or hate them but I love them. The Greeks are very much laid back like the Irish and easy going.
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 2:10 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 24):
I personally would pay that bit extra for EI than FR but thats just my opinion.

I would also do the same. Luckily I live near LHR and it's cheaper to fly EI than FR but if I had the choice of both FR and EI at LHR I would still choose EI over FR any day.

Quoting OA260 (Reply 24):
It looks now like there is light at the end of the tunnel unless MOL gets his hands on it.

I was always worried that Aer Lingus 70 year history of great service was about to be wiped out because MO'L was in charge but as Kaitak says MO'L will have to listen to EI if he wants to make money out of Aer Lingus on long-haul. EI want a new J class and new aircraft. The J class is probably sorted out already but they need new aircraft and will probably talk to FR and MO'L about how they get them.
 
Danny
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 2:31 am

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 25):
they need new aircraft and will probably talk to FR and MO'L about how they get them.

Not even MOL could get B787 before 2013. They just have to go with Airbus where MOL's standing is not particularly high. I hope they have something in the pipeline already because A330 is still selling well and does not seem to be available before 2009.
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 2:38 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 26):
Not even MOL could get B787 before 2013. They just have to go with Airbus where MOL's standing is not particularly high. I hope they have something in the pipeline already because A330 is still selling well and does not seem to be available before 2009.

No he couldn't but neither DM or MOL can get any A350s until 2014. The only way to go is A330s at the moment and then order 787s(MO'L) or A350s(DM) or announce an A330 order at the same time as the 787/350 order.
DM did say in early October that he was in talks with Airbus for 3 or 4 A330s for 2008 but nothing has been said since then.
 
Poitin
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Threa

Fri Dec 01, 2006 3:36 am

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 27):
Quoting Danny (Reply 26):
Not even MOL could get B787 before 2013. They just have to go with Airbus where MOL's standing is not particularly high. I hope they have something in the pipeline already because A330 is still selling well and does not seem to be available before 2009.

No he couldn't but neither DM or MOL can get any A350s until 2014. The only way to go is A330s at the moment and then order 787s(MO'L) or A350s(DM) or announce an A330 order at the same time as the 787/350 order.
DM did say in early October that he was in talks with Airbus for 3 or 4 A330s for 2008 but nothing has been said since then.

I hope DM has some 330s in the pipeline because it the only short term solution for EI long haul. It would cost far too much to convert to 757/767 for just four or five years. The problem is everyone is scambling for 330's to fill the 380 delays, and even used aircraft are hard to find.

Assuming that MOL and DM kiss and make up (just an assumption) MOL does carry a bigger stick with Airbus than you might think, but he certainly has more leverage with Boeing.

As for 787 deliveries, I would say there are 2010 slots available because by then Boeing will have increased production with a second line.

Has DM released his cost cutting plan yet? He was suppose to do it by DEC 1, which is tomorrow, so it should be out today, if he is to met the spirit of the IPT's demands.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
kaitak
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 5:12 am

Don't knock the chances of getting earlier 787s, because I don't think all of the leasing companies' 787s have been spoken for; I'm sure that not all of ILFC's aircraft have been accounted for. There may still be a chance to get some earlier than you might think and of course, there's the EL AL, Arkia and Aeroflot slots (Aeroflot has until the end of next week, if not sooner, to make its mind up) to be reassigned.

I still think the 787 is the most likely option.

However, delaying this decision won't have any effect on what happens next Summer or the year or two after, so they really need a decision asap, to ensure that they can get hold of the aircraft they need. I thought for a while that Air Madrid might go under, which would release some suitable A330s onto the market, but if not, there are alternatives; if they go with Boeing, perhaps they could get assistance in sourcing the right aircraft. A330s would be the No1 choice, with A340s probably the second choice, but if nothing else were available, the 777 might be the only option.

The other issue is, if they can't get access to the US routes they want to serve, such as PHL, SFO etc, could they not reintroduce MCO and BWI?
 
EIBoston
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 5:33 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 29):
The other issue is, if they can't get access to the US routes they want to serve, such as PHL, SFO etc, could they not reintroduce MCO and BWI?

Also I think they could restart the Newark option. It does suit many people better in the NYC region than JFK.

Didn't EI need special permission to go to BWI?
 
kaitak
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 5:48 am

I doubt EWR would be an option, as CO has that tied up.

They did need permission to go to BWI, but they still have that (I think), if they need it. They could still fly there and to MCO. However, I'm still hopeful that the SNN stopover rule could be lifted. I really think that there are serious competition issues. Wouldn't it be fun to lodge a complaint with the Competition Commissioner about the actions of the Transport Commissioner?!

I really would like to see MO'L and DM meet - if necessary in secret (in which case I wouldn't actually see them meet), so that some accommodation could be reached about developing long haul. There are so many opportunities out there. All we seem to get is talk; FR's job should be to inject some action into the whole process ...
 
Poitin
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 5:49 am

While I agree MOL would most likely go for a 787, that still leaves EI with a big hole to cover for the next few years, and that can only be covered by several 330's -- maybe just leased.

However for that to happen, we have to get through December, with all the board room antics what will have to be played out. The stage is set and as the curtain rises, Dermot sings his aria. Just what happens next is not clear, and until that happens, I don't think much effort will be expended on buying airplanes.

Sometime ago, you (Kaitak) expressed frustration that Ard Ri Bertie hadn't bashed a few heads and got DM and MOL to work together. Are we seeing signs of either that happened or maybe the two had a quiet pint and worked out a deal?

There is a change is the tone of voice of DM, and while MOL was stringent a few weeks ago, he has been quiet.

Once DM's aria is over tomorrow, the SIPTU chorus will do a rage dance, and what happens next is anyone's guess. We might be in for an even bigger surprise than we had this week with the additional stock purchases. I suspect that there have been some quiet dealings going on. Just what, I can only guess, but that is all I can do.

This thing may take a sudden and dramatic turn. Keep your eyes wide open. I smell something, but I can't identify what it is yet. But soon, in the next few weeks.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
kaitak
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 3:40 pm

Here's a PQ that was tabled in the Dail yesterday, on the whole Open Skies issue and why the Commission is trying to stuff us.

The govt's response is unusually detailed and reveals some frustration; usually the responses to these questions are pretty bland, but this does reveal some determination to get this issue sorted out.


*To ask the Minister for Transport if he will make representations at EU
level pointing out the competitive disadvantage imposed on Ireland by
prohibiting a bilateral pending the completion of the stalled EU wide
open skies deal with the US in view of the fact that other EU countries
already have bilateral open skies agreements with the US
- Olivia Mitchell.

* For WRITTEN answer on Wednesday, 29th November, 2006.



Ref No: 40869/06 Proof: 142


Transferred (from) Taoiseach -- 29/11/2006 -- Question No 642 (Written)
Answered by the Minister for Transport
(Martin Cullen)

Reply

The liberalisation of air transport services between Ireland and the US
would deliver major benefits for Irish business and tourism. I have
drawn to the attention of the Commission and colleagues in the Council
of Ministers that the conclusion of an open skies agreement would have
particular benefits for Ireland compared to Member States (15 of 25)
that already have open-skies agreements with the US. Those Member States
already enjoy an advantage in unrestricted access to route rights for
the development of air services to and from the US.

Following the agreement reached with the US Authorities to providing for
an orderly change to the Shannon-stop arrangements in the context of the
proposed EU US Open Skies agreement it is very disappointing that that
agreement has still not been finalized. This is due to problems that
have arisen on the US side in making changes to the US rules on
ownership and control restrictions for airlines. Following the US
mid-term elections earlier this month it is widely perceived that the
rulemaking procedures will, at a minimum, be delayed further. I should
point out however that the US administration has not yet stated how it
intends to proceed in this matter following those elections.

I informed Government in September this year of my intention to pursue
all possible avenues to provide for the entry into force at the earliest
possible date of the EU US open skies agreement including the
transitional arrangements relating to Ireland already agreed between the
EU and the US I also indicated that, in the event that an EU US
agreement is not achievable within a reasonable timeframe, I intend to
seek to implement, in accordance with applicable Community law, the
essential elements of the transitional arrangements relating to Ireland
by way of an amendment to the Ireland US bilateral air services
agreement.

While allowing some time for clarification of the intentions of the US
administration following the US elections, I am considering all of the
options to progress this matter as soon as possible including the legal
issues arising under Community law in relation to an amendment of the
Ireland US bilateral air services agreement.
 
kaitak
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 3:57 pm

Here's a very interesting development, mentioned in today's Indo:

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independe...hp3?ca=9&si=1734619&issue_id=14959

Ryanair has offered to give up soem of EI's Heathrow slots (as well as those at other major EU airports), as a concession to the Commission. This seems to me to be calculated to annoy the govt, which has put a lot of effort into protecting these. It's not going to help the r'ship with EI either.

The other issue is, why is it volunteering to give up slots operated by the target company? Shouldn't it be offering to give up some of its own routes? It has, however, offered to give up flights on routes where it competes with Aer Lingus.
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 5:57 pm

The A350 has been offered to airlines according to another thread in civ av. Those airlines were the bigger carriers such as LH KL-AF BA UA QR and EK. I expect Aer Lingus and the slightly smaller airlines to be approached soon. This is a step forward for Airbus and the XWB.

http://www1.airliners.net/discussion...eneral_aviation/read.main/3123865/
 
Danny
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 6:27 pm

Quoting Poitin (Reply 28):
As for 787 deliveries, I would say there are 2010 slots available because by then Boeing will have increased production with a second line.

There will be no second line. Boeing made it pretty clear.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 29):
Don't knock the chances of getting earlier 787s, because I don't think all of the leasing companies' 787s have been spoken for; I'm sure that not all of ILFC's aircraft have been accounted for

Sure but these will be very expensive to take and MOL will be no help. Also this is just a few aircraft anyway - less that EI needs.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 34):
Ryanair has offered to give up soem of EI's Heathrow slots (as well as those at other major EU airports), as a concession to the Commission.

Easy to give away something that is not yours.
 
pilot21
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 7:57 pm

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 34):
Ryanair has offered to give up some of EI's Heathrow slots (as well as those at other major EU airports), as a concession to the Commission.

Give them up to who?
In order for the take-over to be approved, the Commission would have to be satisfied that the near monopoly that EI/FR would operate on certain city pairings would be opened up, but if FR gave up EI's LHR slots (or some of them) who would step in? BMI already fly the route (and badly!) Cityjet do LCY and would be killed in a LHR environment, and BA gave up the route in the 90's, so tough!
Just giving up a few slots (in the target airline!) isn't solving anything, and seems to be a another little jab by FR/MOL at the Govt. rather then any type of serious consideration to get the take-over approved.
Aircraft I've flown: A300/A310/A320/A321/A330/A340/B727/B732/B733/B734/B735/B738/B741/B742/B744/DC10/MD80/IL62/Bae146/AR
 
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OA260
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 11:00 pm

Quoting Pilot21 (Reply 37):
BMI already fly the route (and badly!)

Why do you say that? I fly BMI all the time DUB - LHR and I think they are great. I flew them on Monday and it was fine. I was in C class which is a good product.
 
smokeyrosco
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Fri Dec 01, 2006 11:11 pm

from RTE, again the last few lines are the most important, ok so no job cuts (yet) but certainly the staff have to realise that the benefits are really unbalanced when it comes to comparisons with other airlines.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/1201/aerlingus.html

I would paste it but i'm using citrix at the moment and it leaves a lot to be desired.
John Hancock
 
pilot21
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Sat Dec 02, 2006 12:16 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 38):
Why do you say that? I fly BMI all the time DUB - LHR and I think they are great. I flew them on Monday and it was fine. I was in C class which is a good product.

I'm sure 95% of the time they are fine, but unfortunately I've suffered a few times over the past yr at their hands due to cancelled flights for several reasons (bird strikes the previous day!, scheduling reason = they are running late, so lets roll 2 flights into 1, and their timetable is not the best for a busy route like LHR-DUB after the early morning rush.)
Twice my AA flight from JFK has been delayed, and because AA now codeshare with BD rather then EI on the Business bit of LHR-DUB, I've missed the 8.55am flight to DUB and been told the next flight is 1pm!

EI although with no C class anymore just offer way better service on the route. (Inflight and scheduling wise).
I've heard from several sources on here that the A321 fleet in BD will go once the leases are up, and that they are mainly for the DUB route, but I'd prefer them to move to the A319/320 and offer an extra flight or 2 during the day and fill the plane each time.
Aircraft I've flown: A300/A310/A320/A321/A330/A340/B727/B732/B733/B734/B735/B738/B741/B742/B744/DC10/MD80/IL62/Bae146/AR
 
Poitin
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Threa

Sat Dec 02, 2006 12:40 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 36):
Quoting Poitin (Reply 28):
As for 787 deliveries, I would say there are 2010 slots available because by then Boeing will have increased production with a second line.

There will be no second line. Boeing made it pretty clear.

Not as clear as you think. The issue is not a second final assembly line which could be converted to other production, but the supply of parts. Boeing is talking about 18 787 a month in the 2011 time frame, although not publically. The reason is they remember 737 fiasco they had a few years ago, but the ever increasing backlog of 787 sales is forcing their hand. Airlines are just not willing to wait 8 years to get a plane they need in four, so they are pressing Boeing very hard. Expect Boeing to ramp up production carefully. But they are planning to vastly increase the production rate.

Quoting Smokeyrosco (Reply 39):
from RTE, again the last few lines are the most important, ok so no job cuts (yet) but certainly the staff have to realise that the benefits are really unbalanced when it comes to comparisons with other airlines.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/1201/aerlingus.html

I would paste it but i'm using citrix at the moment and it leaves a lot to be desire

Sounds like Dermot is singing soprano. This is a nothing announcement.
http://www.ise.ie/app/announcementDetails.asp?ID=1352195

(The following is from the RTE article Smokyrosco notes)

    The company's latest round of belt tightening is in the context of Ryanair's bid for the company.

    Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O'Leary said he would slash Aer Lingus's costs and significant numbers of staff if he took it over.

    Aer Lingus management is today saying it is well able to cut its own overheads. But its measures would not include compulsory job cuts.

    Management will make a presentation to staff comparing its terms and conditions and overtime payments to that of competitors.


Just going to have to wait for FR's next move.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
Poitin
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Threa

Sat Dec 02, 2006 1:44 am

EI's response has been posted on the EI website. It is a 34 page PDF.

I'm still reading it but you are welcome to join.

[edit] Hey, it is worth a read. Particularly the details of the value of the aircraft EI owns in the back. The only problem with this document is it makes a number of statements about profitability that will be disproven in the annual report that has to be issued in a few months. This document is touting EI's perfomance in 2002 to 2005, but ignoring the 2006 results, which will be poor. MOL is sure to point that out shortly.



http://www.flyaerlingus.com/Corporate/ResponseCircular_011206.pdf

[Edited 2006-12-01 17:58:15]
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Sat Dec 02, 2006 2:39 am

Part of EI's response confirms that they are currently investing in upgrading their premier product for relaunch in April 2007. There is also confirmation that they are in talks for A330s for 2008.
At least we have a date on the Premier class re-vamp but no news on the economy class!
 
EI321
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Sat Dec 02, 2006 3:02 am

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 27):
Quoting Danny (Reply 26):
Not even MOL could get B787 before 2013. They just have to go with Airbus where MOL's standing is not particularly high. I hope they have something in the pipeline already because A330 is still selling well and does not seem to be available before 2009.

No he couldn't but neither DM or MOL can get any A350s until 2014. The only way to go is A330s at the moment and then order 787s(MO'L) or A350s(DM) or announce an A330 order at the same time as the 787/350 order.
DM did say in early October that he was in talks with Airbus for 3 or 4 A330s for 2008 but nothing has been said since then.

Theres nothing wrong with either A330s or 777s! Its not as if its impossible to make profits with these planes, they are after all the most modern aircraft flying today. But until open skies happens there wont be any feasible Ryanair long haul plans, unless they register an airline in the UK of wherever they want to fly from.

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 25):
I was always worried that Aer Lingus 70 year history of great service was about to be wiped out

Its service history & reputation was wiped out several years ago!

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 29):
I still think the 787 is the most likely option.

Im not even concerned about the 787/A350 right now. EI will have to expand soon so its going to be A330s in the medium term at least. Say they take delivery of new A330s over the next 5 or 6 years. They have no choice, they cant wait until after 2012 to expand. These planes will still be very young when the earliest A350 or 787 slots are availible so theoretrically it may be a long time before we see green 787s or A350s.

Quoting Danny (Reply 36):
Quoting Poitin (Reply 28):
As for 787 deliveries, I would say there are 2010 slots available because by then Boeing will have increased production with a second line.

There will be no second line. Boeing made it pretty clear.

I dont even think the major suppliers could cope with the damand for a second line.

Quoting OA260 (Reply 38):
Quoting Pilot21 (Reply 37):
BMI already fly the route (and badly!)

Why do you say that? I fly BMI all the time DUB - LHR and I think they are great. I flew them on Monday and it was fine. I was in C class which is a good product.

BMI are my choice to LHR also.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 41):
Expect Boeing to ramp up production carefully. But they are planning to vastly increase the production rate.

It they arent saying it in public, then how do you know for sure they will do this. There are still serious design issues ongoing with the 787. Boeing have really been quiet about its progress recently.
 
Poitin
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Sat Dec 02, 2006 3:14 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 44):
Quoting Danny (Reply 36):
Quoting Poitin (Reply 28):
As for 787 deliveries, I would say there are 2010 slots available because by then Boeing will have increased production with a second line.

There will be no second line. Boeing made it pretty clear.

I dont even think the major suppliers could cope with the damand for a second line.



Quoting EI321 (Reply 44):
Quoting Poitin (Reply 41):
Expect Boeing to ramp up production carefully. But they are planning to vastly increase the production rate.

It they arent saying it in public, then how do you know for sure they will do this. There are still serious design issues ongoing with the 787. Boeing have really been quiet about its progress recently.

Since this is a Boeing issue and not really relevant to Irish aviation at the moment, we should just push this to the side for a while. We shall see in about 3 years.

However, stop and think about the following:

1) Boeing is using outside suppliers, which means they can have several sources for parts.

2) the 787 is rapidly becoming over subscribed.

3) there will be no competition until 2012 to 2014, so if they force people to wait that long, they will buy the competition instead. That is lost income.

And Boeing did hint at production in the 16 to 18 units per month rate, which may be on one line or two. Given their moving line, it may be possible to assemble a plane in less than every two days average.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
kaitak
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Sat Dec 02, 2006 3:28 am

Damn, I can't read the damned document! However, the one thing that surprised me is that they are allowed to do this in what appears not to be great detail; I thought that they would have had to produce something more detailed by today; what they have come up with seems to be quite general. Of course, whether it has any effect remains to be seen.

As for long haul, more A330s have been mentioned in the past, but I think that A330s are still only an interim option; I don't know for certain, obviously, but I would expect that more A330s would mean the 777 being ruled out. However, the main thing is that they can get the additional capacity next year. I'm just wondering whether they have already written off 2007 and are not planning any additional capacity; I could understand their doing so, because the Commission are really screwing them around, but given the importance of developing a long haul market, I would really expect the govt to push like mad and the response to the PQ, above, suggests that this is the case. There is a lot of motivation to get this cleared up.

Airbus obviously has quite an incentive to get Aer Lingus on board with the A350 and Boeing, considerably less so, with the 787. Airbus could certainly use the expected A330 order (for 2008 delivery) as a hook with which to reel EI in, but there needs to be more than that. Aer Lingus needs a manufacturer which will recognise the growth potential it has and make sure that the airline can meet and exceed that potential. Frankly, if they can do that, well and good; if Airbus can roll over Aer Lingus's A330 fleet with aircraft that can take the latest IFE and supply the airline with acft that can meet the airline's FULL potential (and by that, I mean considerably in excess of the 12-14 acft EI is thinking about), then OK - but with production slots filling quickly, EI needs to be making decisions pretty soon.
 
Poitin
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Sat Dec 02, 2006 3:45 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 46):
Damn, I can't read the damned document!

You may need to get a new version of Acrobat. I had no trouble with v7

As for the A350, we still don't know what it really is, and when it will be available.


Quoting Kaitak (Reply 46):
However, the one thing that surprised me is that they are allowed to do this in what appears not to be great detail; I thought that they would have had to produce something more detailed by today; what they have come up with seems to be quite general. Of course, whether it has any effect remains to be seen.

It is also very dated, using quotes from 2004, and ignoring the 2006 numbers.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Sat Dec 02, 2006 3:50 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 44):
Theres nothing wrong with either A330s or 777s!
No but when airlines like NW who have ordered 787s and possibly other 787 long-haul airlines start to see DUB, SNN or even ORK as potential destinations Aer Lingus will be lacking with new but still not as efficient 777s or A330s. So looking ahead is the only way EI will beat it's competition and this includes A350s and 787s.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 44):
Its service history & reputation was wiped out several years ago!
Damaged but not wiped out. Like all airlines after 9/11 Aer Lingus suffered but the difference was Aer Lingus had a strong low cost rival, the same can be said for AA and it's rival LCCs but the USA is big and there's more room to compete and avoid competition. Aer Lingus still has the famous shamrock and green livery, it still has that Irish charm that made it great in the 60s and 70s. So really the only thing lacking the "old" Aer Lingus is short-haul service and Premier which will be updated in April 2007.
The XWB got approval from EADS today and it was offered to airlines so things are moving forward with Airbus.

[Edited 2006-12-01 19:52:06]
 
kaitak
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RE: Don't Go Away - It's Just Irish Aviation Thread 23

Sat Dec 02, 2006 3:59 am

Finally managed to open the document! It was in V7, which is a bit slow to open on my computer.

- Still talking about new base in Europe: not liking this idea a lot.
- Possibility that updating long haul Y Class has fallen foul of cost cuts? I sincerely hope not.
- More clarity on EI acft introductions next year: 6 aircraft under current plan - 2 A320s and two A330s for next Summer and 2 A320s for the Winter season.
- Certainly not sparing in criticism of FR, particularly in relation to LHR slots. Fair enough; I don't know why FR bothered bringing this issue up.

Something a little more worrying for FR today; a 737-800 came close to crashing at NOC last March, while the aircraft was on approach; apparently incorrect information fed into the acft FMCs were to blame. Acft was carrying 138 pax and 6 crew from LGW.

http://www.aaiu.ie/upload/general/8545-0.pdf

Crew was experienced overall, but relatively new to 738. Acft had originally planned on 09 arrival at NOC but this was unavailable and the acft commenced approach to 27, but this didn't go entirely according to plan and the approach was aborted; weather was bad, with low cloud and strong winds. The second attempt at landing resulted in a safe arrival.

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