Mexican Aviation '06. Our Last Year's Predictions

fly727 · Tue Dec 05, 2006 6:46 am

About a year ago, we started this thread about wishes and predictions on Mexican Aviation for 2006: http://www1.airliners.net/discussion...general_aviation/read.main/2516853

Back then we were all dreaming about GOL, Volaris, AeroMexico's sale and other topics which some are, up to now, still in the air (literally) Wink

Among many inputs to the thread there were accurate predictions and some weird wishes... Here are my statements and how bad or good I did:

Aviacsa: Will end the year with at least 5 newer 737-300. Addition of NYC. Will add frequencies to MIA and LAX. Will go international out of MID.
Got pretty close to the 737-300's issue. Instead of five they just have 3. I failed miserably about NYC, MIA (they even withdrew the route) and going international out of MID.

Aeromar: Will announce a bigger jet aircraft order and will keep focusing on the profitable business market out of Mexico City. Will open two domestic destinations.
Got kind of close on this one. It indeed announced (though unofficialy) a Regional Jet order to begin operations into South America. Sadly, I don't know when it is supposed to start.

Click: Addition of at least four more Fokkers. Will go international. Addition of a new type of aircraft to the fleet.
It brought new Fokkers, went international (North) but did not bring a new type to the fleet.

AVolar: Will cease operations before September.
I couldn't be more stupid! It is actually doing great AFAIK.

Azteca: Not major changes; will add two to three frames this 2006.
Again, I lacked vision here. Instead of growing they were impounded of one aircraft in ONT. I believe they did add one or two aircraft this 2006 though.

Aerolitoral: 6 to 8 new Embraers. Retirement of the same number of Saabs. Will operate more flights in southeast Mexico, all the way to MID and probably CUN.
Perhaps with Aerolitoral I was more accurate than with any other. It indeed added a lot of Embraers, more than 8 that I predicted and it did retire a lot of Saabs (now left with about 6 to 9 from the original 14 or so). It did start operations to MID and it did fly to CUN (though was only seasonal).

Aerocalifornia: Will let go some route rights. Fleet reduction after mid-year.
Did let go some routes. Did reduce its fleet. That prediction was right on the money.

So... I guess I didn't do that bad!

Jopavon, Edelag, Juventus, Anthsaun, Luisde8cd, Ghost77, Ucunnn, Adriatus, Eddiedude and others... YOUR TURN!

All: feel free to post your wishes and predictions for 2007!

RM Smile

juventus · Tue Dec 05, 2006 1:32 pm

I did all right on my predictions for 2006, how about that??

My predictions for 2007:
1- Aerocalifornia and Azteca, both in big trouble, again.
2-Interjet, Volaris, and Avolar see healthy growth.

My wishes for 2007:

A Mexican airline (any), begins non-stop flights from Cancun to Europe.

AEROMEXICO
1- NRT venture is a success, launch a third weekly.
2- Announce LGW or FRA. Adds GIG to MEX-GRU route, and begins SFO service.
3- Uses Aerolitoral more for low density frequencies to the US.
4- Finishes 2007 with 5 B777 frames, and profitable.

MEXICANA
1- The long awaited wide-body order is placed.
2- Announces first European destination, LGW or FRA.
3- Returns to Quito.
4- Does well to EZE, going twice a day.

ghost77 · Tue Dec 05, 2006 2:07 pm

Mmm nice!! You were very accurate!! I went again with the numbers and predicted 324 frames flying in all our fleets by the end of December 2006 vs 283 from 2005. Today that number is: 320!!! As for the end of 2007 I now predict 382 birds flying in Mexico.

My wishes... to have more widebodies!! I don't care who brings them...!!! I want to see more long haul routes flown by Mexican carriers.

I don't want to see bankrupts, I would love to see a merge... and I want more expansion from Mexicana... I'm not worried about Click as they in 2007 with the big increase of its fleet, I see them still being the biggest LCC in Mexico.

ghost77 APM

adriaticus · Tue Dec 05, 2006 2:13 pm

Quoting Fly727 (Thread starter):
Jopavon, Edelag, Juventus, Anthsaun, Luisde8cd, Ghost77, Ucunnn, Adriaticus, Eddiedude and others... YOUR TURN!

Well, I didn't want to, but I won't resist... From way back, our prediction was MEX-TIJ-NRT!! (I reckon I suggested a B747C could be the a/c of choice, but the routing and frequency were correct!. As for the airline, I said MX or AM could do).

__Ad.

juventus · Tue Dec 05, 2006 8:36 pm

Quoting Ghost77 (Reply 2):
I don't want to see bankrupts, I would love to see a merge...

If Aviacsa ends up buying Aeromexico, as someone rumored, I 'm sure the Aeromexico brand will be retain.

pzurita1 · Wed Dec 06, 2006 12:14 am

Quoting Juventus (Reply 4):
If Aviacsa ends up buying Aeromexico, as someone rumored

Juventus,
Those rumors are no longer sustainable. There was a time (around February 2006) when 6A was seriously considering buying AM and they made a first unofficial offer to the government. Currently, as told by its top management, they are no longer interested.

Quoting Juventus (Reply 1):
My wishes for 2007:

A Mexican airline (any), begins non-stop flights from Cancun to Europe.

And that will be Aladia... May be sooner than we think. They are so eager to start a route to Europe they might even try flying it with its current 757 with a stop in Gander.

PZ

ghost77 · Wed Dec 06, 2006 1:51 am

Quoting Juventus (Reply 4):
If Aviacsa ends up buying Aeromexico, as someone rumored, I 'm sure the Aeromexico brand will be retain.

That wasn't a rumor. That was real. But Mexico's CFC (Comisión Federal de Competencia) stopped 6A as they claimed that if 6A would have bought AM they would have had a total monopoly and control of the market. Now 6A that has lost more market share as well as AM and will continue to, they should again review this, or at least 6A should approach other options.

Quoting Pzurita1 (Reply 5):
And that will be Aladia... May be sooner than we think. They are so eager to start a route to Europe they might even try flying it with its current 757 with a stop in Gander.

IMHO they shouldn't fly to Europe for now!! They should instead get the right metal and get a pair of sole or a pair B767s, that would make them fly non-stop and help to the pax have a better image of their service and product. If they're about to do that, better do the things right from the beginning.

ghost77 APM

fly727 · Wed Dec 06, 2006 5:48 am

Quoting Juventus (Reply 4):
If Aviacsa ends up buying Aeromexico, as someone rumored, I 'm sure the Aeromexico brand will be retain

Not gonna happen.

Quoting Ghost77 (Reply 6):
That wasn't a rumor. That was real. But Mexico's CFC (Comisión Federal de Competencia) stopped 6A as they claimed that if 6A would have bought AM they would have had a total monopoly and control of the market. Now 6A that has lost more market share as well as AM and will continue to, they should again review this, or at least 6A should approach other options

I beg to differ but at the end of the day it was only a rumor, which became partially official as 6A jumped and announce it to the media. The truth is that never quiet got consensus with ASPA pilots (who were to joint-venture). To me, it was nothing but a strategy to let the newcomers such as Volaris, Interjet and others know: Watch out, I'm here and I've got the money!

Quoting Ghost77 (Reply 6):
IMHO they shouldn't fly to Europe for now!! They should instead get the right metal and get a pair of sole or a pair B767s, that would make them fly non-stop and help to the pax have a better image of their service and product. If they're about to do that, better do the things right from the beginning

I wouldn't call a try to fly to Europe with a 757 a wrong thing to do. Perhaps less than perfect but other carriers have done it in the past with moderate success. Icelandair, Taesa back in 1994?, Thomas Cook IIRC, etc.

Quoting Juventus (Reply 1):
Uses Aerolitoral more for low density frequencies to the US.

I believe that AeroLitoral will be left as a strong competitor to the low costs in the domestic market, while AM takes a more international approach (even more than now). I predict AeroLitoral to get EMB-190s and start flying to CUN.

Quoting Ghost77 (Reply 2):
Mmm nice!! You were very accurate!! I went again with the numbers and predicted 324 frames flying in all our fleets by the end of December 2006 vs 283 from 2005. Today that number is: 320!!! As for the end of 2007 I now predict 382 birds flying in Mexico

That was a good guess!!!! Big grin

Quoting Ghost77 (Reply 2):
I would love to see a merge

Perhaps Azteca and AVolar?

Quoting Adriaticus (Reply 3):
From way back, our prediction was MEX-TIJ-NRT!! (I reckon I suggested a B747C could be the a/c of choice, but the routing and frequency were correct!. As for the airline, I said MX or AM could do).

Good guess there!

AM will open another European destination. Let me throw some salt here, but I think NRT will be dropped (hope with all my guts not to).

RM Smile

cessnalady · Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:30 pm

Not from '2005, but my humble prediction from earlier this year was that PP-VRA and PP-VRB would become AeroMexico's third and fourth B777s. So far, the first part of the prediction has become a reality!!

Marie

ghost77 · Tue Dec 12, 2006 8:18 am

Quoting Fly727 (Reply 7):
Perhaps Azteca and AVolar?

Yeah! I would like to see something like that.. Aviacsa with Azteca, Azteca and Avolar, so far, those are the only mergers I see big possibilities, others due to fleets or "philosophy" have to be discard inmediately.

Quoting Fly727 (Reply 7):
AM will open another European destination. Let me throw some salt here, but I think NRT will be dropped (hope with all my guts not to).

According to some news I've read, NRT has now/ is averaging a 60% LF for only ONE MONTH!!! The state of Baja California Norte and Sur are doing big efforts in promotion as well as AM. I think NRT came here to stay. Let me throw more guesses... AM will increase SCL and will they will fly to EZE in 2007.

One more.. for Mexicana.. they will open around 5 new cities in the US and will end up with a near to 90 planes from 75 currently!!! Take your seat and look MX/QA development in 2007!!

ghost77 APM

LatinPlane · Tue Dec 12, 2006 8:40 am

Quoting Ghost77 (Reply 9):
According to some news I've read, NRT has now/ is averaging a 60% LF for only ONE MONTH!!! The state of Baja California Norte and Sur are doing big efforts in promotion as well as AM. I think NRT came here to stay. Let me throw more guesses... AM will increase SCL and will they will fly to EZE in 2007.

I was in TIJ, last week and that's what I read from a newspaper I picked up. Apparantly, the flight has reached a 59.5% load factor, but the authorities of TIJ aren't happy because only about 6% of those flying on the NRT-TIJ-MEX flight are actually headed for TIJ. The tourism authorities are trying create awareness of Baja, in order to have more passengers stay in TIJ.

And by the way, AM is increasing its flights to SCL to 6x weekly. Apparently, after the flight schedule was changed to arrive into SCL in the mornings and depart SCL in the night is attracting more business passengers making it a more succesful operation for AM.

Smile

LatinPlane

Werkur767 · Tue Dec 12, 2006 8:49 am

GOL already started the low-cost in Mexico?

Aeromexico started the flights MEX-GRU with the 777-200s, on fridays.

Werner from GRU

ghost77 · Sat Dec 16, 2006 8:41 am

Quoting LatinPlane (Reply 10):
I was in TIJ, last week and that's what I read from a newspaper I picked up.

I was too in TIJ around 3 weeks ago. I saw that TIJ, despite it has been bashed here by many in respect to its ridicolous terminal considering the new AM B777 operation, I think it has enough space to serve the flight well!!

Quoting Werkur767 (Reply 11):
GOL already started the low-cost in Mexico?

Nope and most probably they won't!! To many mexican start-ups flooding from everywhere!!!

Quoting Werkur767 (Reply 11):
Aeromexico started the flights MEX-GRU with the 777-200s, on fridays.

AM is currently flying 7X with B777 plus 2X with mix of B763/2's since November 15th 2006!!

XA744 · Sat Dec 16, 2006 12:18 pm

Quoting Juventus (Reply 1):
NRT venture is a success, launch a third weekly.

Yes my friend, it is now the two of us !!!

As per Mexicana....

SHA and PEK will be announced together with surprise widebody fleet !!!

Best regards

Mexican Aviation '06. Our Last Year's Predictions

Mexican Aviation '06. Our Last Year's Predictions

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RE: Mexican Aviation '06. Our Last Year's Predictions

RE: Mexican Aviation '06. Our Last Year's Predictions

RE: Mexican Aviation '06. Our Last Year's Predictions

RE: Mexican Aviation '06. Our Last Year's Predictions

RE: Mexican Aviation '06. Our Last Year's Predictions

RE: Mexican Aviation '06. Our Last Year's Predictions

RE: Mexican Aviation '06. Our Last Year's Predictions

RE: Mexican Aviation '06. Our Last Year's Predictions

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