Saudia To Place USD 12 Billion Order

Flying-Tiger · Thu Jan 04, 2007 3:46 am

Quote:
SAUDI ARABIAN Airlines is in negotiations with Boeing and Airbus to buy aeroplanes worth up to $12bn (£6.1bn, E9.1bn) in one of the largest deals of its kind.

The purchase of around 60 planes will bolster the current Saudi fleet of 139, helping it to take on rival Dubai-based carrier Emirates. Local sources say Saudi Airlines, which is government owned, is rapidly expanding and needs a variety of new planes.

Quote:
A western source confirmed negotiations were ongoing and that the Saudis would probably split the order between the two Western plane makers, in a similar fashion to recent defence orders.

http://www.thebusinessonline.com/Doc...-4D0D-AE2B-3F1BA994EB4B&doc_page=1

Guys and gals, those will only be widebodies according to this article. Let the guessing begin:

1. either B787 or A350
2. either B777-300ER or A340-600
3. either B747-800 or A380

My guess:
Cat 1: no prediction, open IMO - may come down to availabiliy (30+)
Cat 2: B777-300ER (15)
Cat 3: some B747-800 (6), A380 taking the majority (10-12)

NYC777 · Thu Jan 04, 2007 4:11 am

When are they due to announce a decision?

MaverickM11 · Thu Jan 04, 2007 4:19 am

I don't know why they bother trying to "take on" EK. They will lose that battle every time unless they have some major policy changes.

kaitak · Thu Jan 04, 2007 4:26 am

There will certainly be a political element to this order; France was pretty cheesed off last time and given the importance to the Saudis of developing and maintaining a good relationship with the EU, an Airbus element to the deal - possibly in the form of A380s - would have to be seen as a strong possibility.

Apart from that, I see more 777s (-300ERs this time) and 787s: -8s initially, but -9s/10s to replace the current fleet of 777-200ERs, which are getting on a bit.

Flying-Tiger · Thu Jan 04, 2007 4:26 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 2):
I don't know why they bother trying to "take on" EK. They will lose that battle every time unless they have some major policy changes.

I think exactly this part in the article shouldn´t be over-valued. IMO their plan to tripple pilgrim numbers to Saudi-Arabia from the current 3.5 million to over 10 million is the far more influencing factor in this decision. They know that they stand only little chance to attract western and asian travellers, their only real market are muslim travellers. And they go for this market - not the hub-and-spoke market.

beech19 · Thu Jan 04, 2007 4:43 am

A couple of tid-bits regarding this.

The order will be split.
My "estimate" would go probably 75% - 25% to Boeing. Ordering 787-8/9, 777-300ER and a some 747-8i. They more than likely will order some large amount of A380's to compete with Emirates.

My "estimates":
25 x 787's: 10 x 788, 15 x 789.
10 x 777-300ER
10 x 748i
15 x A388
--------------
Total of 60

Additionally i suspected something was up a few weeks ago when the Saudi Royal flight 747SP was more or less stored in a paint bay for about 4 days. It was supposedly being "painted" but when it left it had not even been washed, let alone a new coat of paint.

My suspicion was that it was "covert operations" while the Royals did some negotiating at Boeing.

MaverickM11 · Thu Jan 04, 2007 5:04 am

Quoting Beech19 (Reply 5):
15 x A388

Do they really need that large an aircraft? And that many? The only thing I can imagine that would fill that are the VFR runs to South Asia. I think their 744 longhauls, like JFK, are not that full.

beech19 · Thu Jan 04, 2007 5:59 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 6):
Do they really need that large an aircraft? And that many? The only thing I can imagine that would fill that are the VFR runs to South Asia. I think their 744 longhauls, like JFK, are not that full.

But they A388 wouldn't be for longhauls but for migrations. They are tripling the number of pilgrims. They need large aircraft to do this. The 777/787 will be for the long haul point to point.

We aren't talking about a vacation hotspot (hence why traffic to/from the US is low). This is a business and pilgrim expansion.

The only Airbus they will be ordering is the A388. IMHO... we shall all wait for the announcment. It isn't too far off...

behramjee · Thu Jan 04, 2007 6:53 am

No route of Saudia's requires the capacity of an A 380 year round. The only time when an A 380 would come in handy would be during the HAJJ season thats it.

The capacity and range of the B 748 is perfect to replace its B 741s and B 743s flown currently on high density routes to DAC, CGK, MNL, India and Northern Pakistan i.e. LHE & ISB.

SV has also officially acknowledged that the seating capacity of their B 772ERs is too large for its FRA/CDG and many regional flights, therefore I definitely forsee a B 787-800 order being placed alongwith a B 789 order too to replace its B 772ERs in the future.

As far as Airbus goes, I only forsee an A 319 or A 320 order replacing its ageing MD 83s which Saudia too acknowledged is a hopeless aircraft which didnt meet its requirements.

NYC777 · Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:02 am

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 8):
As far as Airbus goes, I only forsee an A 319 or A 320 order replacing its ageing MD 83s which Saudia too acknowledged is a hopeless aircraft which didnt meet its requirements.

Is Saudia also looking to replace narrowbodies. I thought they were only looking to do a widebody order.

FCKC · Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:10 am

Last month an SV Captain told me (i had opened a thread about that) , the order will be 787s , 777-300ERs and A350s.
Do not expect an A380 order coming from SV !!!!!!!!
This plane is simply too big for them !!!!!!!!!

NYC777 · Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:22 am

Quoting FCKC (Reply 10):
Last month an SV Captain told me (i had opened a thread about that) , the order will be 787s , 777-300ERs and A350s.

I see they're doing what SQ had done and ordering both competing models. The question would be then which version of each model. I think I could see them ordering a few 748Is though but only about 5 to 6.

zvezda · Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:34 am

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 4):
I think exactly this part in the article shouldn´t be over-valued. IMO their plan to tripple pilgrim numbers to Saudi-Arabia from the current 3.5 million to over 10 million is the far more influencing factor in this decision. They know that they stand only little chance to attract western and asian travellers, their only real market are muslim travellers. And they go for this market - not the hub-and-spoke market.

Perhaps the 787-3 would fit this model? Most of the world's muslim population live within 3000nm of Saudi Arabia.

Qantas744er · Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:36 am

Based on the ecomomic relations between Saudi Arabia and the USA i think like for the previouse order made by Saudi a couple of years back for the MD90 772 and 744 the American Ambassador "advised" the Saudi's to buy Boeing planes to keep up the great financial relations between the two countries!

The 744's are currently used mostly to the USA and i think they are really the biggest aircraft Saudi would ever need. The a380 would simply be to big because Saudi is no EK etc.

So i put my two cents on a sole Boeing order for mostly 787's and 747-800's.

Cheers Leo

Stitch · Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:42 am

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 4):
I think exactly this part in the article shouldn´t be over-valued. IMO their plan to tripple pilgrim numbers to Saudi-Arabia from the current 3.5 million to over 10 million is the far more influencing factor in this decision. They know that they stand only little chance to attract western and asian travellers, their only real market are muslim travellers. And they go for this market - not the hub-and-spoke market.

Such a strategy would favor the Boeing fleet then, I imagine, as the 747 and 787 are smaller then the A380 and A350 and while the A346 is smaller then the 77W, the 77W is more efficient.

Quoting Beech19 (Reply 7):
But they A388 wouldn't be for longhauls but for migrations. They are tripling the number of pilgrims. They need large aircraft to do this. The 777/787 will be for the long haul point to point.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 12):
Perhaps the 787-3 would fit this model? Most of the world's muslim population live within 3000nm of Saudi Arabia.

Agreed. An A388, even (heck, especially) in 853-seat capacity, would be wasted the rest of the year and would be unusable in that capacity for any serious long-haul travel. I mean take a page from the Japanese and order some 500-seater 773As...

FCKC · Thu Jan 04, 2007 9:41 am

I do not see any 747-8Is at SV.Too big !!!!!!

oly720man · Thu Jan 04, 2007 9:42 am

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 4):
IMO their plan to tripple pilgrim numbers to Saudi-Arabia from the current 3.5 million to over 10 million is the far more influencing factor in this decision

A lot of money to spend on business that only happens in 2 months of the year.

billreid · Thu Jan 04, 2007 10:21 am

Quoting FCKC (Reply 10):
Last month an SV Captain told me (i had opened a thread about that) , the order will be 787s , 777-300ERs and A350s.
Do not expect an A380 order coming from SV !!!!!!!!
This plane is simply too big for them !!!!!!!!!

You know that airline Captains know everything and are wrong about 90% of the time..

FLALEFTY · Thu Jan 04, 2007 10:24 am

Big Saudi egos and big money will equal an order for big planes. I predict they will order A380s and 748I/F models. Look for a couple of the A380s to be outfitted for the Saudi Royal Family.

tommy777 · Thu Jan 04, 2007 10:35 am

I have no faith in them buying 748s.

The orders will be 787s, 777s and A380s

blueflyer · Thu Jan 04, 2007 10:36 am

Quoting Qantas744ER (Reply 13):
the American Ambassador "advised" the Saudi's to buy Boeing planes to keep up the great financial relations between the two countries!

Small detail, but don't you mean the great military/petroleum relations, because on financial issues, the US doesn't get to give advice to Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom has far more money invested in the US economy than the US does in Saudi Arabia, to the tune of $700 billions (source: CFR) and if the Saudis decided to take their money/investment out, the US would feel the pain...

PM · Thu Jan 04, 2007 11:16 am

I wonder when they want to start this expansion. If it's soon then might the A330 be under consideration?

redflyer · Thu Jan 04, 2007 11:19 am

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
helping it to take on rival Dubai-based carrier Emirates.

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
Let the guessing begin:

SV will never be able to take on EK. Although I think EK's growth plans are quite a bit on the overly-ambitious side, EK is at least more nimble and commercially (read: profit) motivated.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 3):
There will certainly be a political element to this order; France was pretty cheesed off last time and given the importance to the Saudis of developing and maintaining a good relationship with the EU, an Airbus element to the deal - possibly in the form of A380s - would have to be seen as a strong possibility.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 12):
Perhaps the 787-3 would fit this model? Most of the world's muslim population live within 3000nm of Saudi Arabia.

While the 783 would certainly be ideal for the reasons you mention, common sense will probably take a back seat to other considerations when the final order is placed.

UAEflyer · Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:01 pm

From the military orders i see that most of it come from USA, and the relations between the Royal family of Saudi Arabia and the Bush family is very tight. This good relation between the two families will be invested in this deal, forever the Kingdom and the States are in love (not in Sept 2001) USA buy oil KSA buy commodities.

I have a strong feeling that Saudi will order Boeing if the Europeans didn't interfere.
It is all about politics if this order took place.

PM · Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:24 pm

Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 23):
I have a strong feeling that Saudi will order Boeing if the Europeans didn't interfere.

... or order Airbus is the USA didn't interfere? It was widely rumoured at the time that Saudia was going to put RR on their 777s until a phone call from the White House swing it to GE.

eraugrad02 · Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:35 pm

I think the 747-8i has a good chance since it last grew to its current size and they could recieve them sooner than if the ordered the a380 since now with all of airbus' delays put it near even at times of delivery for the first planes for some airlines. the relations with the usa and saudi cant hurt as well. When does this announcment occur anyway?

Dougloid · Thu Jan 04, 2007 1:37 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 4):
I think exactly this part in the article shouldn´t be over-valued. IMO their plan to tripple pilgrim numbers to Saudi-Arabia from the current 3.5 million to over 10 million is the far more influencing factor in this decision. They know that they stand only little chance to attract western and asian travellers, their only real market are muslim travellers. And they go for this market - not the hub-and-spoke market.

The Hajj is only one month out of the year, right? Why bother buying capacity that gets used once a year?

TP313 · Thu Jan 04, 2007 6:30 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 12):
Perhaps the 787-3 would fit this model? Most of the world's muslim population live within 3000nm of Saudi Arabia.

Uh? Indonesia and Malaysia (that are the bigest muslim countries in the world in population terms) are less than 3000nm from Saudi Arabia???

[Edited 2007-01-04 10:32:07]

zvezda · Thu Jan 04, 2007 6:35 pm

Quoting TP313 (Reply 27):
Uh? Indonesia and Malaysia (that are the bigest muslim countries in the world in population terms) are less than 3000nm from Saudi Arabia???

Do Indonesia and Malaysia together possess most of the world's muslim population? If they do, then I stand corrected.

QXatFAT · Thu Jan 04, 2007 6:38 pm

I can see Saudi placing orders for many 777-300ERS and possibly throwing in some A350s with most going to the 787-8 and just a few of the 747-8s. Where in the world would they fly the A380? To me, that would be a waste of an investement for them. EK will beat them out in the pax capacity for the 380 but holy cow, 15 A380s? Thats way to much IMO.

Flying-Tiger · Thu Jan 04, 2007 6:48 pm

Whilst the Hadj is certainly the period when most muslim visitors come to Saudi-Arabia I would expect Saudi-Arabia to try to attract more visitors in the non-Hadj period. The holy places are not going to disappear after the Hadj, and they still might attract quite a number of tourists in the non-Hadj period - and as far as I understand the article this is exactly what Saudia is expecting, and where they want to capitalize on.

Seems that - in general terms - Saudi Arabia wants to prepare for the time after the oil, and has muslim travellers / tourists in their view to build up this industry in the Kingdom. If indeed the case, it is certainly an interesting move by them, and holds quite some potential.

Danny · Thu Jan 04, 2007 6:57 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
1. either B787 or A350
2. either B777-300ER or A340-600

Selecting both makes no sense as A350 would cover any need for 777.

UAEflyer · Thu Jan 04, 2007 6:59 pm

I still have doubt that they will order Airbus, but let assume that they ordered airbus, i think that A350 and A346.
They might order A380F but no passenger version.

What about their Embraer order, did they receive all the order?

PanHAM · Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:30 pm

The only A380's going there will be a few for the Royal Flight. Except for that it will be a straight Boeing order, as usual.

Why should they order the A380F? This aircraft is simply not suitable for regular freight operations and Saudia will not get into the package business. They will order the T7F and/or B747-8F, on the passenger side it will be 787s and either 787-8i or 773ER for the long hauls.

The Hajj seasons will be covered by leased planes as usual and neither RUH no JED will become hubs like DXB for reasons mentioned here already.

autothrust · Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:39 pm

Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 32):
I still have doubt that they will order Airbus

Agreed, Boeing just offers the better product palette now from availability point. Though i dont rule out they could order some A380.

If the 783 would fit, couldn't also the A333 being considered as interim solution (until A350XWB/787)? scratchchin

glideslope · Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:42 pm

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 3):
There will certainly be a political element to this order; France was pretty cheesed off last time and given the importance to the Saudis of developing and maintaining a good relationship with the EU, an Airbus element to the deal - possibly in the form of A380s - would have to be seen as a strong possibility.

Or, a nice big Boeing order to stay in Iraq longer? I'll wager it was on Chenney's visit last month.

The French may be "cheesed"(love that word), but a quick US pull out in Iraq would mean a Saudi involvement is the Civil War.

One could see both sides.

miamix707 · Thu Jan 04, 2007 8:03 pm

A MUCH BETTER Saudia colorscheme as well? (I hope).

Maybe a return to the blue-green? Smile

(I wish)!

787s, A350s, 773 and perhaps 748i and/or F?
No pax A380s or Fs.

VIP A380.. has any been ordered? Interesting what configuration an A380 for the Royal Flight could have, how would they use the upper deck, etc. Seems like too large of the plane even for them.

zvezda · Thu Jan 04, 2007 8:48 pm

Quoting MIAMIx707 (Reply 36):
VIP A380.. has any been ordered?

No. All four VIP orders for SuperJumbos have been for the 747-8.

SV might order Airbus, but it would be A330s or A350s. They have no need for A340s or WhaleJets.

Bongodog1964 · Thu Jan 04, 2007 8:51 pm

Why would any non muslim want to visit Saudi Arabia ? The regime isn't exactly what most tourists are looking for (women must be covered, no alcohol, books censored on entry etc)

In addition such rules would make it hard to attract hub traffic.

BA pulled out of Saudi because the cabin crew objected to stopping over, so why should anyone else want to ?

Looking on airfleets I noticed that much of the present fleet is old to say the least, particularly the 737's.
Do they survive through infrequent use (Hadj only), or are they utilised fully.
If the latter surely these must be the 1st for replacement, followed by the A300's

Regarding the destination for orders; the recent controversy over the Eurofighter order might give some clues.

The UK government was leaned on by the Saudi government over the investigation into the "commission" paid to leading Saudi figures on previous arms deals, with the threat of cancellation and award of the contract to France if the enquiry wasn't halted. Duly the UK government caved in.

This suggests that both the UK and France are on good terms with the Saudi government, and willing to work the Saudi way.

With regard to a previous statement that Saudi tends to buy the majority of its arms from the US, I was under the impression that they tend to spread the work around between the US and the Uk these days, prior to this France was a favoured supplier.

IMO it looks like an order split between A & B to keep both sides on their toes.

brilondon · Thu Jan 04, 2007 10:39 pm

I suspect that SV would go with Boeing mainly because of the relationship they have with the US and only use Airbus as a leveraging tool to get more favourable terms from Boeing. This will be a very political decision in the end and which government the Saudis would like to deal with.

B707Stu · Thu Jan 04, 2007 10:41 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
1. either B787 or A350
2. either B777-300ER or A340-600
3. either B747-800 or A380

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 3):
There will certainly be a political element to this order; France was pretty cheesed off last time and given the importance to the Saudis of developing and maintaining a good relationship with the EU, an Airbus element to the deal - possibly in the form of A380s - would have to be seen as a strong possibility.

Apart from that, I see more 777s (-300ERs this time) and 787s: -8s initially, but -9s/10s to replace the current fleet of 777-200ERs, which are getting on a bit.

Quoting Tommy777 (Reply 19):
I have no faith in them buying 748s.The orders will be 787s, 777s and A380s

The consensus, and I agree is:
1. 787
2. 777
3. A380s

The Boeings because of the economic and political realities and the A380s for the prestige and keeping pace. Saudi's view themselves as the 'head of the Arab world.' They're not going to be left behind without an A380.

On a separate note I just returned from an IB JFK-MAD-ALC-MAD-JFK trip where I got to fly both the A343 and the A346. Hands down the A346 was a better flight, more comfortable, etc. Having said that, and I prefer the A320 over the 737, the A346 and the A343 couldn't compare to the 777 for cabin comfort and general flying comfort. I don't see any major A346 orders in the future if the economics of the 777 are that much better, because the cabin and comfort certainly are too.

georgiaame · Thu Jan 04, 2007 10:54 pm

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 3):
There will certainly be a political element to this order; France was pretty cheesed off last time

We know this BB/Moderator really gets ticked off when "politics" surmounts aviation. HOWEVER, the big bucked Saudis call the shots, not the EU or the US. The real politik, however, is that France/EU is completely impotent when it comes to Saudi survival. That despotic nation owes it's entire survival on the US military. They supported us, reluctantly, in 1991 when Kuwait was overrun by a now hanged dictator, knowing full well that they were next, and again, reluctantly, a few years ago. There is a major war looming between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the next few years, regarding which oil bloated nation will be the political denominator in the region. Again, the EU can offer no Saudi protection, the US offers it complete protection. They are under no "obligation" to the EU.

Of course, this being the Middle East, logic does not, nor has it ever applied to the equation.

Personally, I'm hoping for a large order of 747-8Is, cuz I love the aircraft. But Saudi really isn't the tourist capital of the planet, and what they would need year round Flying Whales for is beyond me. But money is money, and they've got lots of it, to waste any way they wish.

Bongodog1964 · Thu Jan 04, 2007 11:02 pm

Please would all the posters who say "It will be Boeing because of the Saudi relationship with the US" and "Saudi depends on the US for security, the EU can't help them" explain why the Saudi government chose Eurofighter instead of a US offering ? By your logic it shouldn't have stood a chance.

Stitch · Thu Jan 04, 2007 11:05 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 31):
Selecting both (the A350 and 777) makes no sense as A350 would cover any need for 777.

Other than the fact SV will be able to get 77Ws up to a decade earlier then A350-1000s, which would be important if they want to compete against EK "now" instead of "later".

jfk777 · Thu Jan 04, 2007 11:15 pm

Saudia will order every new wide body available but not the A380. A350, 787, 777-300ER and 747-8 will make up the order. Saudia doesn't operate a transfer hub like Emirates in Dubai, it traffic is O&D from the Arabian Kingdom. Smaller planes, even for LHR and JFK, are what it needs.

JAL · Fri Jan 05, 2007 12:03 am

I'm guessing Boeing might be the slight favourite here given the political relations between the US and Saudi Arabia.

oly720man · Fri Jan 05, 2007 12:08 am

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 42):
Saudi government chose Eurofighter instead of a US offering

The rather strong Israeli lobby who didn't want the Saudis getting the top of the range US fighters?

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,961517,00.html

(Or was it, erm, bribery?)

Bongodog1964 · Fri Jan 05, 2007 12:58 am

Quoting Oly720man (Reply 46):
Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 42):
Saudi government chose Eurofighter instead of a US offering

The rather strong Israeli lobby who didn't want the Saudis getting the top of the range US fighters?

If the Saudis deem the US to be pro Israel, doesn't this play into A's hands ?

Quoting Oly720man (Reply 46):
(Or was it, erm, bribery?)

I think the Saudi's prefer the word commission; it makes it sound as if the various Princes are actually doing something to justify their money.

cedarjet · Fri Jan 05, 2007 1:06 am

Saudia will always buy the least suitable and most underachieving aircraft they can get their hands on. It has nothing to do with what the airline needs, it's all about pleasing the Saudi Royal Family's protection service, ie the US. They bought 747-100s in the late 70s, they bought MD90s in the 90s, this time round they'll buy, I dunno, 747NGs (this machine, btw, will be as successful as the 757-300 and the 767-400) and 787s with weird engine choices and poor range. And they'll pay top dollar. Lucky USA!

CX747 · Fri Jan 05, 2007 1:11 am

Saudi ordered the Typhoon because they want to have more than one "national" supplier for military equipment. Henceforth, they ordered from Europe this time.

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