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keesje
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BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Thu Jan 04, 2007 11:57 pm

As part of the overall RFP BA is weighing the A330 vs the 772ER for its short-term bridging requirement.

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...RFP+responses+from+Airbus+and.html


"We have already reserved 10 777-200ER production slots from 2009," says Boyle, but these bridging deliveries will be confirmed only if the Boeing 777-300ER/787 package is selected. "If we go with Airbus, then the A330 will be the bridge to the A350."


Question is also when BA wants to replace it's 767s, after 2012, or earlier with 772ER's?

[Edited 2007-01-04 16:02:50]
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keesje
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 12:40 am

- "extremely unlikely" BA will split the initial 747-400 replacement deal between the A380 and 747-8. "But it might be different for the next batch,"

- recent delays that have blighted the A380 programme do not concern him, but they "make it likely that we'll get a better deal out of Airbus".

I guess he means "we would get a better deal" or "a better proposal" iso "we will get a better deal"
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
dank
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:03 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
"We have already reserved 10 777-200ER production slots from 2009," says Boyle, but these bridging deliveries will be confirmed only if the Boeing 777-300ER/787 package is selected. "If we go with Airbus, then the A330 will be the bridge to the A350."

That quote does confirm that the reserved slots were not for 773ERs.

cheers.
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:25 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Question is also when BA wants to replace it's 767s, after 2012, or earlier with 772ER's?

I believe I have read here and on FlyerTalk that BA was upgrading the interiors on their 767s, so they may indeed be holding on to them until the 787-8 and A358 become available in 2012-2013.

Quoting Dank (Reply 2):
That quote does confirm that the reserved slots were not for 773ERs.

Well Boeing can build any model of 777 in a slot, so all BA has to do is say they'd prefer 773ERs instead of 772ERs and then pay a bit more money.  Smile
 
Geo772
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:56 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
I believe I have read here and on FlyerTalk that BA was upgrading the interiors on their 767s, so they may indeed be holding on to them until the 787-8 and A358 become available in 2012-2013.

The cabins of the longhhaul 767s were upgraded recently. All 14 have flat bed club world along with WT+ and WT cabins. 4 of the aircraft have the new AVOD entertainment system.

However the new interior doesn't hide the fact that the aircraft are gradually getting a bit long in the tooth and will need replacing sooner rather than later. BA seems to get about 4 to 5 years of life out of its premium products before some sort of update is needed, this means that the 767 fleet will be needing another refit around about 2009 onwards whihch is exactly when the bridging aircraft will start to be delivered.

What will be interesting is whether the bridging aircraft will remain part of BAs fleet in the long term, this certainly could be a possibility if they were 777s, however having a few A330s could complicate fleet planning and utilization a bit.
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:59 am

Quoting Geo772 (Reply 4):
What will be interesting is whether the bridging aircraft will remain part of BAs fleet in the long term, this certainly could be a possibility if they were 777s, however having a few A330s could complicate fleet planning and utilization a bit.

That would probably be why they would go with the 77W/787 combo. 772ERs for bridging and then the 77W and 787.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
dank
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirem

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:23 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):

Well Boeing can build any model of 777 in a slot, so all BA has to do is say they'd prefer 773ERs instead of 772ERs and then pay a bit more money. Smile

very true. just that many on a.net were convinced that this was evidence of an impending 773ER order at the time... too many people drinking too much kool aid from either side  Wink. More to the point, this info just confirms what had already been stated, that if they went with Boeing, they'd buy some 772ERs to fill the gap and if they went with Airbus, they will buy some 333s. which seems perfectly sane to me. but maybe i'm a bit off Big grin.

cheers.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 5):
That would probably be why they would go with the 77W/787 combo. 772ERs for bridging and then the 77W and 787.

I don't think that this is what will drive which deal. I think that BA feels that the long term best option is more important than how it merges with their current fleet. If, say, they like the 350 long term over a 77W, they'll be plenty happy to get a better deal on 333s than a lousy deal that Boeing would probably offer if they weren't going to get a piece of the big pie. On the other hand, if they went with Boeing, it would make no sense to add 333s to the fleet and I doubt Airbus would give them much of a deal on them anyway (given that they didn't buy other Airbus planes).

cheers.
 
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:35 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 1):
"extremely unlikely" BA will split the initial 747-400 replacement deal between the A380 and 747-8. "But it might be different for the next batch,"

That is a very interesting quote. They have IIRC 57 744's. So might it be feasible in terms of capacity growth that they will opt for a380's first?
Big version: Width: 445 Height: 254 File size: 14kb

Is it me or does the BA livery look very nice on the a380?

Concerning the 767, it depends if they want a larger capacity aircraft. If they want something similar to the 767, the a350 will have a very hard time. But the article did not say if a 787 order to replace the 767 would rule out the a350-900/1000 in the future. It only said the future order would be either a350 or 77W/787-9. Interesting is that they also mention the 787-10. Does that make it somewhat official that Boeing is going ahead with it?
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:45 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
"We have already reserved 10 777-200ER production slots from 2009," says Boyle, but these bridging deliveries will be confirmed only if the Boeing 777-300ER/787 package is selected. "If we go with Airbus, then the A330 will be the bridge to the A350."

 rotfl  BA ordering Airbus widebodies? what's next? Continental buying Airbuses?  Smile
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 4:21 am

Quoting Kappel (Reply 7):
That is a very interesting quote. They have IIRC 57 744's. So might it be feasible in terms of capacity growth that they will opt for a380's first?

A 748 would offer BA capacity growth, as well. Also, BA can get 748I's years before they can get A388s. So BA might decide to do a small (~20 frames) 748I order to replace their oldest 744s (or support a more premium and space-taking product) and then consider what to do with the remainder of the fleet (stick with the 748I or add the A388).
 
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 6:25 am

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 8):
BA ordering Airbus widebodies? what's next? Continental buying Airbuses?

You know it wasn't too long ago that A300 were buzzing about in CO colors. They also had A340s on order when the model as originally introduced. While I don't think they'll be ordering any 'buses anytime soon, its not like its never happened.
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LHRSpotter
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 7:57 am

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 8):
BA ordering Airbus widebodies? what's next? Continental buying Airbuses?

Not sure about Continental but you can bet on BA ordering Airbus widebodies. It doesn't take a political genius to figure this one out. Not to mention that it makes a lot of business sense as well.
 
Danny
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 8:06 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
BA can get 748I's years before they can get A388s.

Really?
 
jfk777
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 8:15 am

An A330 is too narrow for BA's premuim Club Class, no way 8 across would work as on the 744 or the 777. The A330 is too small for BA and its 3 or 4 class international configurations to get even 200 passengers.
 
JoeCattoli
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirem

Fri Jan 05, 2007 8:16 am

My guess is A388 and 777/787 for the 1st batch...
Although they seem quite interested in the A350 idea..
Of course an article doesn't decide anything... but it gives u a small idea.
Especially against all the people that repeated to death BA will never buy A380, Kudos to the "wait and see" people.. it's always better to wait and see.
It's like some people has always the key for everything..
Let's Wait and See what BA does.

Ciao
Joe

Happy new year you all!

[Edited 2007-01-05 00:39:34]
 
JoeCattoli
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 8:19 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 13):
An A330 is too narrow for BA's premuim Club Class, no way 8 across would work as on the 744 or the 777. The A330 is too small for BA and its 3 or 4 class international configurations to get even 200 passengers.

Yeah... right.. the A330 is narrower than the 767...  Yeah sure
They need to replace 767 not 777.

Ciao
Joe
 
zvezda
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirem

Fri Jan 05, 2007 8:19 am

Quoting Kappel (Reply 7):
Is it me or does the BA livery look very nice on the a380?

The BA livery looks great on the WhaleJet. Very attractive.

Quoting Kappel (Reply 7):
Interesting is that they also mention the 787-10. Does that make it somewhat official that Boeing is going ahead with it?

Yes, it's semi-official. Both Mike Bair and Randy Baseler have said that there will definitely be a 787-10. I believe I was the first on A.net to predict it, for which some of the 777 fans about beat me half to death.  Smile

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
BA can get 748I's years before they can get A388s.

My understanding is the first available 747-8 SuperJumbo slots are 2010 and the first available WhaleJet slots are 2012.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 8:24 am

Quoting LHRspotter (Reply 11):

Not sure about Continental but you can bet on BA ordering Airbus widebodies. It doesn't take a political genius to figure this one out.

What political factors would lead BA an Airbus order?  scratchchin 

The UK is not a shareholder of the EADS conglomeration and BAE recently sold its stake in Airbus. British Airways is a private company that does not require state approval to place an order. No one expects this to be a political order.

Quoting LHRspotter (Reply 11):
Not to mention that it makes a lot of business sense as well.

Again, better provide some reasoning.

BA has made it very clear that they do not wish to server as a launch customer of a new aircraft. The 787 will have several years of in-service experience by the time the A350 is available, and Boeing will certainly have the higher dispatch reliability in 2012.

If BA chose Airbus, they would have to introduce an entirely new fleet type whereas an additional 777 order would integrate perfectly into their fleet. The 777-300ER is a class leader that Airbus has yet to match. Not to mention, BA already holds 2009 delivery slots for the 777.

Quoting Kappel (Reply 7):
That is a very interesting quote. They have IIRC 57 744's. So might it be feasible in terms of capacity growth that they will opt for a380's first?

It would make much more sense to add the 747-8I first. The -8 offers more conservative capacity growth (about 12% over the 744) while also maintaining a great deal of commonality from previous generation 747-400.

The overhead cost of introducing the 747-8 would be much less than introducing the A380, and operating the 744 along side the 748 would allow fleet commonality savings.

Aside from propulsion and avionics, many spare parts and crew resources will remain common between the 747-400 and 747-8.

Quoting Kappel (Reply 7):
Is it me or does the BA livery look very nice on the a380?

The BA livery looks good on everything  bigthumbsup 

Quoting Kappel (Reply 7):
Interesting is that they also mention the 787-10. Does that make it somewhat official that Boeing is going ahead with it?

It's virtually certain that Boeing will go ahead with the 787-10. It has been in internal material for some time now, and many anticipate a launch order before this summer.
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
Danny
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 8:29 am

According to Boeing.com "Intercontinental certification and entry into service - mid to late 2010"

So EIS for B748 is late 2010. With all the freighter orders and LH order it is certainly not possible to get any in 2010. And in 2011 as well.
 
boysteve
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 8:40 am

Quoting LHRspotter (Reply 11):
Not sure about Continental but you can bet on BA ordering Airbus widebodies. It doesn't take a political genius to figure this one out

Why? I don't understand? If there was a political motive then BA would have opted for the A330/340 family over their B772's last time round surely. What has changed over the past 10 or 15 years since the B772's were ordered and delivered. Back then BA had to cut costs by maximising and simplifying the fleet to appease shareholders just as it does now.
IMHO it all depends on whether BA feel they need the A380 or not. If they feel they do need the A380 to maintain market share and maximise slots at LHR on key expanding routes (and I'm talking India/AsiaPacific not necessarily the USA) over the next 15 or 20 years then they will go with the A380 I'm sure. If not then it will be Boeing all the way but I stress politics will have very little to do with it!
 
zvezda
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 8:41 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 18):
So EIS for B748 is late 2010. With all the freighter orders and LH order it is certainly not possible to get any in 2010.

Your logic is faulty. The 747-8F will start production in 2009. The way SuperJumbo sales are going, Boeing will probably be producing either 4 or 5 per month in 2010. The LH deliveries are spread out over about 18 months if I recall correctly. I'm told there are still 2010 slots and there is no reason to believe otherwise.
 
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirem

Fri Jan 05, 2007 9:02 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 17):

Aside from propulsion and avionics,

I think that Boeing shot themselves in the foot with the deal with GE. Not saying it isn't a successful program, but for a large RR operator like BA it will be a hard sell. Maybe that's why the reserved slots are for 772's, as they can bundle them with RR.

I also think we'll see the 380 in BA colors. And it does look quite nice too!
 
EI321
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 9:20 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 16):
Quoting Kappel (Reply 7):
Interesting is that they also mention the 787-10. Does that make it somewhat official that Boeing is going ahead with it?

Yes, it's semi-official. Both Mike Bair and Randy Baseler have said that there will definitely be a 787-10. I believe I was the first on A.net to predict it, for which some of the 777 fans about beat me half to death.

There will definitly be a 787-10. But the 787-10 is a dilemma for Boeing. Launch it now, and its a case of 'goodbye mr bond' to new orders for the 772ER. They will hold off launching it as long as they can, and as a business desision this may not be a bad thing.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 17):
If BA chose Airbus, they would have to introduce an entirely new fleet type

BA already operate the 787?
Whichever they go for (and I think it will be a mix of both), BA will be introducing new types.

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 8):
BA ordering Airbus widebodies? what's next? Continental buying Airbuses?

Not only were CO a sizable A300 operator, but were one of the first to order the A340, although the order never materialised. It would be as much as a surprise as BA ordering airbus narrowbodys over 737s.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 17):
Aside from propulsion and avionics, many spare parts and crew resources will remain common between the 747-400 and 747-8.

By propulsion you mean engines I presume? The GEnx on the 747-8 are not common to BA's Rolls Royce powered 744s.
 
B2707SST
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 9:23 am

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 21):
I think that Boeing shot themselves in the foot with the deal with GE. Not saying it isn't a successful program, but for a large RR operator like BA it will be a hard sell. Maybe that's why the reserved slots are for 772's, as they can bundle them with RR.

Both GE and RR insisted on exclusivity for the 772LR/773ER, so it would have come down to only one engine no matter which entrant Boeing picked. Given that the GE90 was a clean-sheet design with more growth potential than its competitors and that GE was willing to provide risk capital for 777LR development, Boeing chose wisely. The 777LR program's sales record shows the market thinks so as well, with several loyal RR/PW customers switching to the GE90 on their 777LRs.

Additionally, BA already operates GE90s on part of their 777 fleet, so there would be some commonality on maintenance and spares if they order the 77W. BA had teething problems with the first-generation GE90s on their early 777-200As, but the -115Bs are now quite mature powerplants with (IIRC) the lowest in-flight shutdown rate in the industry.

--B2707SST
Keynes is dead and we are living in his long run.
 
PlymSpotter
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 9:30 am

Would BA be able to secure delivery slots prior to 2012 if they ordered the A380? The London Olympics will see in increase in the required capacity and would also be a good time to usher in the Superjumbo to the fleet, just a though.

Dan Smile
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boysteve
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 9:42 am

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 24):
Would BA be able to secure delivery slots prior to 2012 if they ordered the A380? The London Olympics will see in increase in the required capacity and would also be a good time to usher in the Superjumbo to the fleet, just a though.

Good post mate! Yes I agree a BA A388 launch at the beginning of 2012 would be a good advert for the UK and BA and London itself I am sure. However, BA would have to be confident it could still fill those birds in 2013. One idea could be to use the A380 as a substitute to a B772 or a B744 during 2012 on those routes that would see the biggest increase in pax that the London Olympics would temporarily bring. Afterwards these birds could then be moved on to routes offering the highest growth potential moving forward, say from 2013 to 2020.
 
osiris30
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:37 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 22):
BA already operate the 787?
Whichever they go for (and I think it will be a mix of both), BA will be introducing new types.

A new type yes, but there is (likely) to be more commonality between the 787 and 777 than the 777 and the 350. Similarly the 330 would be entirely new, while 777s are existing. If they go Airbus it's one *extra* new type in the fleet. And if it's for a short-term thing it really doesn't make a lot of sense.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
JAAlbert
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:43 am

If Heathrow is the most slot restricted international airport, and if international air travel continues to grow, then BA will have to order the 380 eventually. How much more expansion in traffic can Heathrow accept (or has it reached its maximum now?) It seems common sense that, even if the growth in international air traffic is dispersed through more point to point traffic, traffic at the major hubs will still also grow. So I think the question is not if BA will order the 380, but when. It could be that growth over the next ten years can be accomodated by nothing larger than a 748. If so, the 748 is first. But I think the 380 will come eventually to BA.
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:51 am

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 23):
Both GE and RR insisted on exclusivity for the 772LR/773ER, so it would have come down to only one engine no matter which entrant Boeing picked.

It was actually P&W and GE that demanded exclusivity. RR was willing to share the market with the Trent 8104. However, you are correct in noting that no matter what, only one engine manufacturer was going to power the 773ER and 772LR.
 
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PM
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 11:15 am

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 21):
I think that Boeing shot themselves in the foot with the deal with GE.

Yep. Looking at the dismal sales record of the 777W they must be rueing the day they plumped for GE only...  Wink

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 23):
Both GE and RR insisted on exclusivity for the 772LR/773ER



Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
It was actually P&W and GE that demanded exclusivity. RR was willing to share the market with the Trent 8104.

 checkmark 

Yep. I don't think RR have ever demanded exclusivity. (They got it on the A345/346 by default.) That either indicates supreme confidence in their engines - or the recognition that they would never be picked as the sole engine type over GE. Imagine the 747-8 with only RR? I think Boeing would have struggled with that one.  Sad
 
zvezda
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 1:20 pm

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 24):
Would BA be able to secure delivery slots prior to 2012 if they ordered the A380?

That would depend on the rate at which existing customers cancel.
 
manni
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 1:36 pm

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 24):
Would BA be able to secure delivery slots prior to 2012 if they ordered the A380?

Most likely they would be able to do so. VS and ILFC deffered their orders to 2013, Fed Ex cancelled. Note also that not all A380s are expected to be delivered before 2012. As example look at QF, they will take their 20 between 2008 and 2015.

Airbus has said it will deliver 1 aircraft this year, 13 next year and 25 in 2009, 2010 and 2011 will be at full speed. That's a total of about 137 A380 positions before 2012, about 185 if we include 2012.
 
B2707SST
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:06 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
It was actually P&W and GE that demanded exclusivity. RR was willing to share the market with the Trent 8104. However, you are correct in noting that no matter what, only one engine manufacturer was going to power the 773ER and 772LR.

Yep, you're correct. Slip of the fingers  Wink...

Also interesting to note that Boeing seriously considered offering only one engine on the 787, but the airlines forced two choices. It's a fairly safe bet that GE would have been the winner, given the ever-closer relationship between GE and Boeing: 737-CFM, BBJ and 777LR programs co-launched with GE risk capital, 747-8 exclusivity, etc. That said, competition is certainly a good thing, in engines as well as aircraft.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 22):
There will definitly be a 787-10. But the 787-10 is a dilemma for Boeing. Launch it now, and its a case of 'goodbye mr bond' to new orders for the 772ER. They will hold off launching it as long as they can, and as a business desision this may not be a bad thing.

True, but 772ER orders have slowed to a trickle. The biggest barrier to launching the 787-10 soon is probably the lack of available slots for any 787 model until around 2013. There is less pressure on Boeing to commit now with EIS so far away, especially since the competitor has been pushed back as well.

--B2707SST
Keynes is dead and we are living in his long run.
 
baroque
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirem

Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:31 pm

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 32):
Also interesting to note that Boeing seriously considered offering only one engine on the 787, but the airlines forced two choices. It's a fairly safe bet that GE would have been the winner, given the ever-closer relationship between GE and Boeing: 737-CFM, BBJ and 777LR programs co-launched with GE risk capital, 747-8 exclusivity, etc. That said, competition is certainly a good thing, in engines as well as aircraft.

Presumably PW are the ones really troubled by this greater and greater exclusivity and with the GE financing, perhaps the better term would be fusion. Perhaps just as well competition bodies do not address the matter of where apparently separate bodies have become fused.
And one has to wonder what would be the name for a combined entity of GE and Boeing, probably not Goeing!

[Edited 2007-01-05 06:32:21]
 
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N328KF
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:47 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 33):
And one has to wonder what would be the name for a combined entity of GE and Boeing, probably not Goeing!

I guarantee you that the new name of any business that merges with General Electric is "General Electric." The list of companies that firm is incapable of acquiring (should it be deemed necessary) would be short.
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
-Donny Miller
 
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PM
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirem

Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:47 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 33):
Presumably PW are the ones really troubled by this greater and greater exclusivity and with the GE financing, perhaps the better term would be fusion.

I wonder how close Boeing and GE would have to get before the airlines started protesting. They weren't happy to have just one choice on the 777W (though they have - as they had to - sucked it up and bought bucket loads of them anyway) so how would a GE-only 787 have gone down? Not well, I suspect.

In reality, the 787 is the only Boeing left in serious production where there is an alternative to GE. That's scary.

GE and RR have effectively knocked PW out of the race for the forseeable future. But would the industry be happy if GE then squashed RR too?

I wouldn't!  no 

Quoting Baroque (Reply 33):
Goeing

LOL!
 
baroque
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:32 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 35):
GE and RR have effectively knocked PW out of the race for the forseeable future. But would the industry be happy if GE then squashed RR too?

I dare say "the industry" would not. But then it makes decisions as small quanta, each looking out for its own immediate interests. So you could hardly expect long term planning for the whole industry to emerge from these isolated decisions.
It prompts a really philosophical question, is an industry (any industry come to that) really likely to act in its own best long term interests? And if your answer is "Yes" please explain "How" using no more than 2 A4 sheets!  stirthepot 
 
speedmarque
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:43 pm

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 21):
I also think we'll see the 380 in BA colors. And it does look quite nice too!

BA will have a new livery by then as this style (beginning with world tails) will be nearly 15 years old by 2012.
 
zvezda
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 4:02 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 36):
I dare say "the industry" would not. But then it makes decisions as small quanta, each looking out for its own immediate interests. So you could hardly expect long term planning for the whole industry to emerge from these isolated decisions.
It prompts a really philosophical question, is an industry (any industry come to that) really likely to act in its own best long term interests?

Game theory provides the answer. This appears to be a Tragedy of the Commons problem.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 4:04 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 22):
BA already operate the 787?

BA would not be ordering the 787 as an interim measure.

If BA chose the Airbus route, they would have to introduce an all-new fleet type in 2009 (the A330) and then introduce a second new fleet type in 2012-2013 (the A350).

Quoting EI321 (Reply 22):
There will definitly be a 787-10. But the 787-10 is a dilemma for Boeing. Launch it now, and its a case of 'goodbye mr bond' to new orders for the 772ER.

This isn't the case. Boeing was frank that if someone must replace the 772ER, they would dumb not to be the ones to do so. Also, a casual observation would note that 772ER reached market saturation when orders crawled to a halt nearly six years ago, coinciding with the launch of the 777LR.

The real issue holding back the 787-10 is adequate payload and range. To increase the weight and payload of the 787-10, Boeing needs higher thrust engines as she will never leave the runway with -9 engines. Both Ge and RR are moving quickly to offer such an engine.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 22):
By propulsion you mean engines I presume?

It rarely means anything else  Wink

Quoting EI321 (Reply 22):
The GEnx on the 747-8 are not common to BA's Rolls Royce powered 744s.

I do believe I said that

Introducing a new engine type is much less complicated than introducing a new fleet type. There isn't an aircraft BA can order that won't require a new engine type.

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 21):

I think that Boeing shot themselves in the foot with the deal with GE. Not saying it isn't a successful program, but for a large RR operator like BA it will be a hard sell.

BA is just one customer. Boeing will not sink in the event BA turns their nose on the Ge-powered 747-8.

There would be no 747-8 if Boeing had not granted exclusivity to the Ge engine option, so I must disagree with the "shot in the foot" comment. Boeing now has 74 orders to their credit which they would not have without Ge providing financial backing to the project.

If anyone is "shooting themselves in the foot" if they prioritized engine type over fleet type. I don't think that is the case, however.
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
Danny
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 5:32 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 20):
The 747-8F will start production in 2009. The way 748 sales are going, Boeing will probably be producing either 4 or 5 per month in 2010.

I'm affraid you are wrong. Production rate will be similar to 744. Therefore there is no way fulfill all freighter orders in 2010 as EIS for freighter is "late 2009" which means Decwember. No way to get i version in 2010.
 
zvezda
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 6:53 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 40):
I'm affraid you are wrong. Production rate will be similar to 744. Therefore there is no way fulfill all freighter orders in 2010 as EIS for freighter is "late 2009" which means Decwember. No way to get i version in 2010.

Do I smell a wager?
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Fri Jan 05, 2007 11:10 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 35):
I wonder how close Boeing and GE would have to get before the airlines started protesting. They weren't happy to have just one choice on the 777W...so how would a GE-only 787 have gone down? Not well, I suspect.

If the airlines really wanted the Trent 8104 on the 772LR, 773ER and 777F, they could have probably forced Boeing to do it. However, I believe only CX was willing to walk away from the program over it (unfortunately, the online reference I used to use is now gone - should have saved a copy off-line) and yet they too now fly GE-powered 777s. AA and SQ didn't like it, either, but SQ bought them, too and AA's beef was more with the size and weight of the planes as their performance exceeded AA's needs which is probably why they have yet to look at them.

Quoting Danny (Reply 40):
I'm afraid you are wrong. Production rate will be similar to 744. Therefore there is no way fulfill all freighter orders in 2010 as EIS for freighter is "late 2009" which means December. No way to get i version in 2010.

744 production rates are increasing from the current three(?) a month to at least four(?). Also, we do not know Boeing's production slot assignments (do we) for all the 748Fs and 748Is currently on order, so they may not all be scheduled for sequential delivery at maximum slot capacity. And we don't know if any airlines "pulled a QR" and reserved production slots with no-cancellation penalties that could allow them a 2010 delivery. Yes, Boeing would be pressuring those airlines to commit as 748F orders put pressure on those slots, but that doesn't mean they have all been re-assigned...
 
scotron11
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Sat Jan 06, 2007 2:00 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 39):

BA is just one customer. Boeing will not sink in the event BA turns their nose on the Ge-powered 747-8.

I appreciate that. Not that the program hasn't been successful for both Boeing and GE. I was looking at it from the standpoint of BA having all of their 744's RR powered being given no choice when it came to engine selection.

Additionally, if they were to go the 747-8/777W route, I am sure there will be tons of howling at the moon from RR!
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Sat Jan 06, 2007 3:37 am

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 43):
Additionally, if they were to go the 747-8/777W route, I am sure there will be tons of howling at the moon from RR!

A nice RR Trent 1000-powered 787-8 (to replace the 767) and 787-10 (to replace the 772) order would probably change those howls from one of despair to one of joy...  Wink
 
scotron11
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Sat Jan 06, 2007 5:42 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 44):

A nice RR Trent 1000-powered 787-8 (to replace the 767) and 787-10 (to replace the 772) order would probably change those howls from one of despair to one of joy...

I must admit RR haven't done too badly with the 787!
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Sat Jan 06, 2007 5:55 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 42):
However, I believe only CX was willing to walk away from the program over it (unfortunately, the online reference I used to use is now gone - should have saved a copy off-line) and yet they too now fly GE-powered 777s.

Are you referring to Alan Mengus' personal site? It was a wealth of information and I do miss it now that he has taken it offline  Sad

Alan occasionally posts on the Yahoo Orders group, so you might be able to email him directly and ask for the text files.
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA: A330 Vs 772ER Short-term Bridging Requirement

Sat Jan 06, 2007 6:05 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 46):
Are you referring to Alan Mengus' personal site? It was a wealth of information and I do miss it now that he has taken it offline.  Sad

I believe so. "airbusiness.fr" or something. And yes, it was an excellent site for information.

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