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blrBird
Posts: 482
Joined: Wed Apr 06, 2005 6:39 am

RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:07 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
Quoting Buck3y3nut (Reply 2):
I know for a fact that Vijay Mallya (Owner of Kingfisher) wants to start non-stop service from BLR-SFO using one of his 380's. He might also start a non-stop service from BOM/DEL/BLR to NYC. Don't know for sure yet...

Given on Airbus own website that the A380 could do 15,000km and BLR-SFO is 14,000km (still air), its going to be quite interseting to see what Mr. Mallya will do if he decides to use the A380 on this particular route (configuration, etc)....he's already complaining of losses due to too much competition..

I dont think BLR has enough market for 380, IT will use its 380's from DEL and BOM, to where I have no clue!

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
Also, I believe Mallya stated that the A345 would be used for BLR-SFO...

IT 345's will be used on BOM-NYC and BLR-SFO

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 38):
Kingfisher Airlines 5---2 routes
BOM-LHR, BOM-SYD

May be not!
from star dust....
 
Gemuser
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:11 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 49):
Quoting ORDRyan28 (Reply 45):I'd assume the 380 for Thai would be used on LAX routes..The WhaleJet doesn't have the range to operate LAX-BKK nonstop. It's not even close.

Airbus is quoting 8000 nm, still air. BKK-LAX is 7186 nm, so eastbound is no problem, westbound could sometimes have problems at times.

Gemuser
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Gemuser
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:23 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 38):
Qantas 20---10 routes
MEL-LAX, (2x)SYD-LAX, MEL-AKL-LAX, SYD-SIN-LHR, SYD-HKG-LHR, MEL-SIN-LHR, MEL-HKG-LHR.

We HAVE had this discussion before!
QF is 7 routes not ten. The route SYD-HKG-LHR is incorrect as QF DO NOT fly this route. The route flown is MEL-HKG-LHR. You have also left out SYD-BKK-LHR (QF1).

To restate:
QANTAS 20 --- 7 routes
MEL-LAX, MEL-AKL-LAX, SYD-LAX (2 daily), SYD-BKK-LHR, SYD-SIN-LHR, MEL-SIN-LHR, MEL-HKG-LHR

Gemuser
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Gemuser
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:27 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 38):
Kingfisher Airlines 5---2 routes
BOM-LHR, BOM-SYD

BOM-SYD seems unlikely as AI not Kingfisher hold traffic rights India-Oz. Unless the bi-lateral is liberlised or AI give them up Kingfisher is a non starter.

Gemuser
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irishpower
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 10:24 am

I thought that I heard that both Virgin and LH would serve SFO with A380's. I thought the LH454 FRA-SFO would be served with a A380 as well as the flight from LHR on Virgin.
 
jacobin777
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 12:24 pm

Quoting Poitin (Reply 26):
I suspect if more than a couple 380s show up each day at SFO, they will quickly wear out their welcome. The problem is SFO's runways and taxiways are just a little too close together for the A380, so when landing or takeing off or even moving around on the ground, the nearby taxiways and runway will have to be closed. Since this is about a 15 minute period, it wouldn't be too painful if fairly infrequent. Just what the threshold of pain is, well we will have to wait and see

Yes...that is something I thought about also, but I doubt we'll see too many of them coming to cause taxiing problems....1-2 per day is what I'm thinking...and if CI order it, and bring it to SFO, then it wouldn't be a problem as they have a late arrival and departure which wouldnt' interfere with other operations..

Carriers which I think would bring the A380 to SFO

1)SQ
2)CX-if they order
3)CI-if they order
4)LH-once in a blue moon..but I think the 748 will be the next upguage for LH-454/455

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 38):
I was thinking about Kingfisher serving the kangaroo route.

Great..yet another potential A380 operator on that route...especially given that EY now have rights to serve Australia..look for them to bring the Big Beast on the Kangaroo Route.....how many do we need?

1)SQ
2)QF
3)EK
4)Possibly MH
5)Possibly IT
6)EY
7)QR (if/when they get Australian routes)

Quoting Buck3y3nut (Reply 44):

Sorry for the mis-information and thank you for the correction. I forgot that the also ordered the A345's Smile

 checkmark ....no problems at all.. Smile

Quoting ORDRyan28 (Reply 43):
add ORD to that list. Probably the only carrier that has said they will fly the beast to ORD.

ORDRyan28, I agree with LH having the largest chance of bringing the A380....I also believe IB could bring the A380 in during the summer if they ordered it...but again, chances are not too great to see too many A380 services at ORD...maybe once in a blue moon..

...be ready to spot.. Smile

Quoting Abrelosojos (Reply 48):

= What!!! HKG-SIN is 11,200kms? For a small sum, I am sure I can find you a shorter route.

Apologies..I meant HKG-SFO....my bad... crazy 

Quoting BlrBird (Reply 50):

I dont think BLR has enough market for 380, IT will use its 380's from DEL and BOM, to where I have no clue!

 checkmark 

Quoting BlrBird (Reply 50):
IT 345's will be used on BOM-NYC and BLR-SFO

As stated above, SFO will see the A345.....

cheers..
"Up the Irons!"
 
anthsaun
Posts: 512
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 12:29 pm

Quoting Jaws707 (Reply 35):
If my memory serves me right I believe that AF is planning on flying the plane to Mexico City as well as Miami. Lufthansa was going to fly it to Mexico City

MEX new T2 is under construction and building two gates to receive the AF and the LH´s A380.

Besides that, many other airlines have mentioned that MEX is out of range for nonstop flight with their actual aircrafts. The A380 will give new possibilities for asian carriers to make it into MEX.
Over 80 years in business say a lot about success
 
ordryan28
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 3:45 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 55):

ORDRyan28, I agree with LH having the largest chance of bringing the A380....I also believe IB could bring the A380 in during the summer if they ordered it...but again, chances are not too great to see too many A380 services at ORD...maybe once in a blue moon..

...be ready to spot.. Smile

Oh, I will be!

I'd expect to see a LH 380 once in a while (summer), I was even hoping for the 380 from AF (yeah right) or IB (if they ordered it). I just don't think ORD's international routes have that much demand, too bad.
Whoever said winning is not everything never fought cancer.
 
zvezda
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 4:47 pm

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 51):
Airbus is quoting 8000 nm, still air. BKK-LAX is 7186 nm, so eastbound is no problem, westbound could sometimes have problems at times.

Right, eastbound is no problem. Westbound is a problem only when passengers are onboard. One-way service?
 
desediez
Posts: 52
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 6:38 pm

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 38):
Quoting Desediez (Reply 36):
Here i would add FRA-BKK, FRA-JNB, FRA-DEL, FRA-MIA, FRA-HKG, FRA-SIN, FRA-ORD




Quoting Desediez (Reply 36):
FRA :-NRT , -HKG , -PDG,-DFW,-MIA,-JNB,-GRU,-EZE,-PEK,-SIN,...

Thats too much for 15 planes.

Please do not mix up my predictions with those of other users (second portion).  Wink
I do not see enough demand on routes to GRU and EZE for LH to put the A380 here. Also DFW may not meet the demand. I see those destinations to be more 747-8 candidates for LH.
For sure, not each of the predicted destinations may be served with A380 on the first days after EIS and even, there are quite enough rumors going on that LH may boost up their order. So, i would not be fixed too much on the number of 15 planes. The time will tell us....

desediez
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ZK-NBT
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 7:28 pm

Well my picks for AKL,

Possibly QF on the MEL-AKL-LAX route as pointed out above though this is currently a 2 class route and I'd guess all the A380's would be 3 class.

SQ maybe once they get towards the end of their 19 deliveries, though the 744 flight will soon downgrade to a 772 2 class though mainly due to a shortage of 744's.

EK will probably use atleast 1 daily A380 on atleast 1 of the Australian routes, potentially all 3 since they can't get more landing rights in OZ for now.

Possibly a couple more aswell, I bet when the 747 was introduced noone would have thought AKL would get anywhere near the number it has over the years, though some were flown on long hauls to AKL for range.
 
flyingfool
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 8:11 pm

Quoting FlyDekker (Reply 33):
As far as I know Schiphol is not set up for the A380 and, at this time, has no plans to do so.

Are you sure???
 
Gemuser
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 8:28 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 58):
Quoting Gemuser (Reply 51):Airbus is quoting 8000 nm, still air. BKK-LAX is 7186 nm, so eastbound is no problem, westbound could sometimes have problems at times.
Right, eastbound is no problem. Westbound is a problem only when passengers are onboard. One-way service?

According to http://www.airbus.com/en/aircraftfamilies/productcompare/ the 8000 nm still air range is with 555 pax. Westbound WILL have problems, and it will impact the economics of using the aircraft non stop LAX-BKK, but it should still carry around 400 pax non stop, even in winter, so to say it will carry NO pax is stupid and misleading! (Unless I missed the smilie!)

Gemuser
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zvezda
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 8:51 pm

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 62):
According to http://www.airbus.com/en/aircraftfamilies/productcompare/ the 8000 nm still air range is with 555 pax.

... and an OEW about a dozen tonnes lighter than what the airlines will install. With a real world configuration, a WhaleJet could carry about 150-250 passengers LAX-BKK in the summer and 0-100 in the winter. It's not even close to being a viable route.

It's not clear whether or not SFO-HKG is a viable WhaleJet route. Extending the route either to LAX on one side or to BKK on the other side takes it beyond viable. Extending in both directions is out of the question. The 787-9 could probably do it with a low-density seating configuration of about 200 passengers. The only other options are the A340-500 or the 777-200LR.
 
Gemuser
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:42 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 63):
and an OEW about a dozen tonnes lighter than what the airlines will install. With a real world configuration, a WhaleJet could carry about 150-250 passengers LAX-BKK in the summer and 0-100 in the winter. It's not even close to being a viable route.

Evidance?

Gemuser
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ER757
Posts: 3740
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sun Jan 14, 2007 2:27 am

Quoting ORDRyan28 (Reply 43):
Quoting Kaitak744 (Thread starter):
Lufthansa 15---7 routes
FRA-JFK, FRA-LAX, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?

add ORD to that list. Probably the only carrier that has said they will fly the beast to ORD.

I'd say LH flying the A380 to ORD is a near certainty due to their code-share with UA and ORD being UA's biggest hub. There will be a large feed of passengers into ORD and of course connections out of ORD for pax arriving from FRA. I don't see any other carriers bring the A380 to ORD unless BA buy some, and even then, I think ORD might not be at the top of their list.
 
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zeke
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sun Jan 14, 2007 2:41 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 63):
... and an OEW about a dozen tonnes lighter than what the airlines will install. With a real world configuration, a A380 Superjumbo could carry about 150-250 passengers LAX-BKK in the summer and 0-100 in the winter. It's not even close to being a viable route.

Incorrect, the 380 can do over 8000 nm, LAX to BKK (VTBS) over the airways is 7568nm. Full payload can be taken BKK-LAX, LAX-BKK with severe headwinds would require some planning, a more northerly/southerly route maybe preferable to keep away from the 300 kt jetstreams near Japan. The payload hit is not to the extend you are suggesting, the A380 Superjumbo will be cruising above the most severe headwinds, which the 744 cannot do.

If you have evidence to the contrary as Gemuser requested...please let us all know.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 63):
It's not clear whether or not SFO-HKG is a viable A380 Superjumbo route.

I can assure you it is very viable even with an average 100kt headwind for the entire trip. With the additional range over the 744, even more achievable this time of year compared to the 744.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
ordryan28
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sun Jan 14, 2007 8:13 am

regarding KE, I could see the 380 on occasion to ORD, although not a sky team hub..

JFK also...

I think KE's main goal was to deploy the 380 on North American routes and very high density Asian routes
Whoever said winning is not everything never fought cancer.
 
ordryan28
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sun Jan 14, 2007 9:11 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 8):
I expect CDG to see KE's A380s

I agree with that. I think CDG and maybe LHR will be the only European cities to see KE's a380's
Whoever said winning is not everything never fought cancer.
 
CHI787ORD
Posts: 817
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sun Jan 14, 2007 3:48 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 13):
1)SFO and ORD will barely see any A380's (I agree with most of the usual suspects)



Quoting ORDRyan28 (Reply 57):
I'd expect to see a LH 380 once in a while (summer), I was even hoping for the 380 from AF (yeah right) or IB (if they ordered it). I just don't think ORD's international routes have that much demand, too bad.

LH has specifically stated that they intend to bring the A380 to ORD. As for other carriers bringing the A380 to ORD.... I could see both BA and AI bringing the A380 if they ever decide to order it.

Since AI will be joining Star.... and they already fly to 10x a week with a 744... makes sense that they would bring the A380 or the 748 if they ever order it.
 
jacobin777
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sun Jan 14, 2007 3:56 pm

Quoting CHI787ORD (Reply 69):

LH has specifically stated that they intend to bring the A380 to ORD. As for other carriers bringing the A380 to ORD.... I could see both BA and AI bringing the A380 if they ever decide to order it.

Since AI will be joining Star.... and they already fly to 10x a week with a 744... makes sense that they would bring the A380 or the 748 if they ever order it.

As I said..it won't be too often..maybe once in a blue moon during the summer months (i.e-couple of times a month)..but that's about it....

I don't see BA bringing an A380 to ORD....they increase frequency every year..and with VS recommencing LHR-ORD again, its even less likely to see BA bring in The Big Beast....

LH is the best shot right now.....
"Up the Irons!"
 
juventus
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sun Jan 14, 2007 10:57 pm

In the US, this is how I see it:

1-LAX the most
2-JFK second on the list
3-SFO and MIA get a few Asian and European respectably
4-ORD LH
 
LHStarAlliance
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Sun Jan 14, 2007 10:59 pm

Quoting Kaitak744 (Thread starter):
Thai Airways 6---3 routes
?, ?, ?

FRA, LHR , ZRH (?) , SYD
Boycott The Olympic Games In Beijing !
 
Robbie86
Posts: 314
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Mon Jan 15, 2007 1:15 am

I think LH will use their 380 on:

FRA-NRT

FRA-BOM

FRA-DEL

FRA-HKG

FRA-PEK

FRA-JFK

FRA-ORD

FRA-LAX

FRA-SFO

FRA-Sao Paolo, Brazil
 
airbazar
Posts: 10045
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Mon Jan 22, 2007 12:25 am

hardly any mentions for JNB. I think JNB has a chance at seeing more A380's than most cities in India for example. For starters I don't think any airport in India can accomodate the A380. We should expect to see LH, AF, EK all operating the A380 to JNB. Granted, it won't be their first choice but in due time as the A380 production gets going, we will see them in JNB. GRU and MEX are other cities that may seasonaly see some A380 action.
 
LHStarAlliance
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Mon Jan 22, 2007 12:29 am

MAN-MIA VS


filler
Boycott The Olympic Games In Beijing !
 
A350XWB
Posts: 24
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RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Mon Jan 22, 2007 12:55 am

Quoting Robbie86 (Reply 73):

What about PVG, MIA & MEX? If they are ready for A380's I think they are on the target list, at least for seasonal service.


My bets are:

JFK, ORD, SFO, LAX, BOM, DEL, HKG, PVG, NRT, TLV (all the year)
MIA, MEX (summer)
JNB (winter)

[Edited 2007-01-21 16:59:10]
 
daron4000
Posts: 607
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2005 12:17 pm

RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Mon Jan 22, 2007 1:17 am

Quoting ORDRyan28 (Reply 57):
Oh, I will be!

I'd expect to see a LH 380 once in a while (summer), I was even hoping for the 380 from AF (yeah right) or IB (if they ordered it). I just don't think ORD's international routes have that much demand, too bad.



Quoting ER757 (Reply 65):
I'd say LH flying the A380 to ORD is a near certainty due to their code-share with UA and ORD being UA's biggest hub. There will be a large feed of passengers into ORD and of course connections out of ORD for pax arriving from FRA. I don't see any other carriers bring the A380 to ORD unless BA buy some, and even then, I think ORD might not be at the top of their list.

I agree that it will be LH that brings in the 380 to ORD. However, I think it is interesting to point out that per VS' press release, ORD is the 3rd largest market from LHR after JFK and DXB yet a lot of airlines want to bring it on routes from Asia, Australia that are below ORD. While I doubt ORD will see one from LHR, I think it is something interesting to consider while making this list.
 
ordryan28
Posts: 963
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:24 am

RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Mon Jan 22, 2007 2:40 am

Quoting CHI787ORD (Reply 69):
LH has specifically stated that they intend to bring the A380 to ORD. As for other carriers bringing the A380 to ORD.... I could see both BA and AI bringing the A380 if they ever decide to order it.

Since AI will be joining Star.... and they already fly to 10x a week with a 744... makes sense that they would bring the A380 or the 748 if they ever order it.

That's true, but the likelihood of AI buying the A380 over the 748I is not all that great. I expect to see the 748I at ORD more often than an A380...

Quoting Daron4000 (Reply 77):
I agree that it will be LH that brings in the 380 to ORD. However, I think it is interesting to point out that per VS' press release, ORD is the 3rd largest market from LHR after JFK and DXB yet a lot of airlines want to bring it on routes from Asia, Australia that are below ORD. While I doubt ORD will see one from LHR, I think it is something interesting to consider while making this list.

Valid points. Here's my guess: BA will order the 748I and will deploy it during sumer months to ORD, and a possible VS A380 seasonal..
Whoever said winning is not everything never fought cancer.
 
ordryan28
Posts: 963
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:24 am

RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Mon Jan 22, 2007 3:24 am

I also think ORD has a valid chance to see the A380 in KE colors..
Whoever said winning is not everything never fought cancer.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Mon Jan 22, 2007 5:43 am

Quoting Robbie86 (Reply 73):
FRA-SFO

That route would probably be a B748-I

Quoting ORDRyan28 (Reply 79):
I also think ORD has a valid chance to see the A380 in KE colors..

Given KE flies into the B744 into ORD, I could imagine KE bringing in their A380's there..

"Up the Irons!"
 
airbazar
Posts: 10045
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Mon Jan 22, 2007 6:21 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 80):
Given KE flies into the B744 into ORD, I could imagine KE bringing in their A380's there..

KE only odered 5 A380's so you won't see a KE A380 at ORD anytime soon. CDG and LAX will likely be top priorities plus a inter-Asia destination that only requires 1 aircraft.
 
ordryan28
Posts: 963
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:24 am

RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Mon Jan 22, 2007 6:38 am

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 81):

KE only odered 5 A380's so you won't see a KE A380 at ORD anytime soon.

Not necessarily true. I thought KE's main goal was to deploy their beasts to the U.S.

I suppose it depends on the season and demand..
Whoever said winning is not everything never fought cancer.
 
ordryan28
Posts: 963
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:24 am

RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Mon Jan 22, 2007 6:48 am

All considered, from the airlines that have ordered the A380 already, ORD's best shots at seeing the beast come from LH and KE, respectively.
Whoever said winning is not everything never fought cancer.
 
User avatar
TR763
Posts: 776
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2001 10:07 am

RE: The Most Likely A380 Routes, For All Airlines.

Mon Jan 22, 2007 8:19 am

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 74):
GRU and MEX are other cities that may seasonaly see some A380 action.

I don´t know what are AF´s plans, but they actually fly 2X daily to GRU (If I´m not mistaken) with 77W and A330 (the 77W flight will soon change to 772ER) and with a daily 744 to GIG.
I think that an A380 would not be too much for Brazil by 2011 or 12.
Also for LH who flies daily 744 to GRU with an extension to EZE.
But I´m sure that GRU isn´t A380 ready and highly doubt that EZE is.

Rgs!
TR763
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