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n1786b
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UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:02 pm

This just hit the wires:

PARIS, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Package delivery company United Parcel Service Inc. is expected to cancel an order for 10 freighter versions of the Airbus A380 superjumbo plane next week, French newspaper Les Echos said on Friday without citing sources.

- n1786b
 
CrazyHorse
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:07 pm

Bad news for Airbus and maybe the end of the A380F, if this come true.
 
columba
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:09 pm

That would be really bad !! Maybe they will order the A330F instead.
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TinkerBelle
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:23 pm

Not surprised after FedEx pulled out.

Quoting Columba (Reply 2):
Maybe they will order the A330F instead.

I bet they will someday. A330F will be a kickass aircraft.
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WestJetYQQ
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:24 pm

Hmmmm

Who didn't see this coming?
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EvilForce
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:27 pm

PARIS, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Airbus said on Friday it had no information on reported plans by delivery company United Parcel Service Inc. to cancel an order for 10 A380 cargo planes.

"I have no information along that line," an Airbus spokeswoman said.

Her comment came after French newspaper Les Echos said on Friday UPS planned to cancel the order next week. The paper cited no sources.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...EADS-A380-UPS.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna

[Edited 2007-01-19 08:27:34]
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LTU932
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:30 pm

It was to be expected. I have become a bit unsure about the A380 making sense for them when 5X ordered the 747-400F a while back. I do agree about them going for the A330F later on. I wouldn't be surprised if they do yet another swap and simply change the 10 A380F order for an order of perhaps 20 A330F.
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osiris30
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:31 pm

Quoting N1786b (Thread starter):
PARIS, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Package delivery company United Parcel Service Inc. is expected to cancel an order for 10 freighter versions of the Airbus A380 superjumbo plane next week, French newspaper Les Echos said on Friday without citing sources.

Shock and horror, oh no!!!.. oh wait we expected this to happen.. nevermind.

Quoting Columba (Reply 2):
That would be really bad !! Maybe they will order the A330F instead.

 checkmark 

Quoting TinkerBelle (Reply 3):
I bet they will someday. A330F will be a kickass aircraft.

Agreed. The 330F will be a great product assuming that it is built soon enough that it's not competeing against a 787F. I don't expect a 787F (or 350F) for many years yet though. Airbus needs to make hay while the sun is shining on the 330F project. (Note I'm not trying to poo-poo the 330F here, but rather, trying to stress the importance of Airbus moving forward on the project)

Quoting EvilForce (Reply 5):
"I have no information along that line," an Airbus spokeswoman said.

Ya like they had no information of additional delays, or any of the other things that have gone wrong with Airbus (i.e. Streif leaving, etc., etc., etc.) IF UPS does cancel this statement by Airbus just further damages their credibility.
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baron95
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:34 pm

Blessing in disguise if you ask me (I know no one did  Smile.

That frees Airbus from having to worry/develop/certify the A380F when that program is so much behind and in the red. It frees 2 handfulls of delivery slots that can be used to minimize delay penalties to A380 passenger orders. It enables Airbus to focus on being the best VLA passenger plane they can. If there were enough time, they could even drop some F-related weight out of the plane and recertify prior to SG delivery.

I think that is a net positive for Airbus, particularly if UPS orders 20 A330Fs at the time of cancelation (they'd call that a conversion, right?).
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CrazyHorse
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:34 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 2):
That would be really bad !! Maybe they will order the A330F instead.

Or the B777F instead of the A380F, the same as FedEx.
 
osiris30
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:39 pm

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 8):
Blessing in disguise if you ask me (I know no one did .

That frees Airbus from having to worry/develop/certify the A380F when that program is so much behind and in the red. It frees 2 handfulls of delivery slots that can be used to minimize delay penalties to A380 passenger orders. It enables Airbus to focus on being the best VLA passenger plane they can. If there were enough time, they could even drop some F-related weight out of the plane and recertify prior to SG delivery.

Except that as I understand it most if not all the engineering work for the F was done already. I think.. maybe.. honestly I'm losing track of fact vs. fiction for all things Airbus related these days (the lack of clarity/honesty from Airbus isn't helping).
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baron95
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:40 pm

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 7):
(Note I'm not trying to poo-poo the 330F here, but rather, trying to stress the importance of Airbus moving forward on the project)

I am not so sure about that. The A330 is the ONLY Airbus widebody aircraft that is selling well for passengers and it will have to carry the Airbus passenger WB sales until at least 2013 (6 years) when the A350 starts being delivered. I expect that line to be constrained. Why would Airbus spend $$$ on a -F program, that would at best be taking a A330 passenger slot and switching it over to an -F slot for the next 6 years? There is no way that Airbus will generate a lot of incremental revenue from the -F prior to 2013 - i.e. build an additional A330 that they would not otherwise build if they didn't launch the -F.

Airbus needs to focus (A380, A350, A320E/A320NG) and conserve resources - this is not the time to develop yet another NICHE PLANE. Haven't they learned anything from the A345/A380?
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LTU932
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:41 pm

Quoting CrazyHorse (Reply 9):
Or the B777F instead of the A380F, the same as FedEx.

The 777-200F would be more of a replacement for the MD-11F, and since FX and 5X are adding more MD-11Fs, the 772F would only make sense if they need something smaller than the 747 for heavy lift and expansion (much like FX did when they went for the 772F). Though since 5X also operates the 747 classics and is due to get their first brandnew 747-400F soon (I guess those would replace the classics), perhaps they could even order a handful of 747-8Fs for their heavy lift needs.

EDIT: Minor correction.

[Edited 2007-01-19 08:43:29]
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EvilForce
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:42 pm

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 7):
IF UPS does cancel this statement by Airbus just further damages their credibility.

On the contrary. Note that they did not deny it. They just said they had no information. A bit different.

Personally, I think it was a case of who blinked first. Airbus scrapping the F program for a few years and thus losing more so than if the customer UPS cancelled.

I'm quite certain a 330F order will be announced shortly for UPS.
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:45 pm

Also, for what it's worth, bad news for the Engine Alliance. They lost the FedEx order in 2006 while RR gained orders for 17 more A380s from SQ and QF. If UPS do cancel that would leave the EA with just three customers (against 7 for RR) and 58 orders to 75 for RR. Admittedly, they have the biggest single customer (EK) but that may be a bit of a mixed blessing.
 
osiris30
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:51 pm

Quoting EvilForce (Reply 13):
On the contrary. Note that they did not deny it. They just said they had no information. A bit different.

EvilForce:

With all due respect, there is no way Airbus DOESN'T know UPS will be cancelling if they are doing it next week. You are fooling yourself if you don't think there's been a constant dialog back and forth between the two companies since FedEX bailed out.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 11):
Why would Airbus spend $$$ on a -F program, that would at best be taking a A330 passenger slot and switching it over to an -F slot for the next 6 years?

I'm not suggesting they start building them tomorrow.. but at least formalize the design and shop it around [edit]SERIOUSLY[/edit].. otherwise if they wait 6-8 years to do it, there's no point (787F will destroy the 330F). If they don't move on it they are pinning all their hopes on an eventual 350F which is 12+ years out. With the 300 going away, and the 380F ostensibly dead in the water they have NO widebody freighter product that's viable for 12 years!!!!

The cargo market is HUGE, and growing daily.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 11):
Airbus needs to focus (A380, A350, A320E/A320NG) and conserve resources - this is not the time to develop yet another NICHE PLANE. Haven't they learned anything from the A345/A380?

I don't disagree.. but you listed 3 aircraft they should focus on at once.. that's not even focus LOL. If it wasn't for the fact they would have no offering in the cargo space at all for 12 years I would agree with you. But if they give up the cargo market for 12 years, they might as well give it up forever.. and Boeing will make a gob of money off of freighters... (witness the 748F program)

[Edited 2007-01-19 08:54:40]
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osiris30
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 4:52 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 14):
Also, for what it's worth, bad news for the Engine Alliance. They lost the FedEx order in 2006 while RR gained orders for 17 more A380s from SQ and QF. If UPS do cancel that would leave the EA with just three customers (against 7 for RR) and 58 orders to 75 for RR. Admittedly, they have the biggest single customer (EK) but that may be a bit of a mixed blessing.

And what happens if forbid EK bails or deferrs some of their orders! Starting to look like EA will never make dollar one from their 380 investment.. which I'm sure will taint future decision processes.
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CrazyHorse
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:00 pm

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 12):
The 777-200F would be more of a replacement for the MD-11F, and since FX and 5X are adding more MD-11Fs, the 772F would only make sense if they need something smaller than the 747 for heavy lift and expansion (much like FX did when they went for the 772F). Though since 5X also operates the 747 classics and is due to get their first brandnew 747-400F soon (I guess those would replace the classics), perhaps they could even order a handful of 747-8Fs for their heavy lift needs.

I agree, the B747-8F could be also an interessting option for UPS and their future fleet.
 
baron95
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:00 pm

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 16):
And what happens if forbid EK bails or deferrs some of their orders! Starting to look like EA will never make dollar one from their 380 investment.. which I'm sure will taint future decision processes.

And we get one step closer to a Boeing/GE vs Airbus/RR world in widebodies. I never thought I'd see this, but we are getting close (with the exception of 787).
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:07 pm

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 18):
And we get one step closer to a Boeing/GE vs Airbus/RR world in widebodies. I never thought I'd see this, but we are getting close (with the exception of 787).

See this thread:
Airbus Widebodies 2006: Engine Shares (by PM Jan 18 2007 in Civil Aviation)

Widebody sales in 2006:
Airbus - RR @ 44%, GE @ 5%
Boeing - GE @ 50%, RR @ 4%
 
scouseflyer
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:15 pm

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 10):
Except that as I understand it most if not all the engineering work for the F was done already. I think.. maybe.. honestly I'm losing track of fact vs. fiction for all things Airbus related these days (the lack of clarity/honesty from Airbus isn't helping).

IIRC Leahey said eary last year that the first parts for the first F model had been made back then so it's a lot further on than engineering work being done.
 
ikramerica
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:25 pm

I expect UPS to convert the order to 20+ A330F. Remember, the A380F was a conversion of A300F aircraft UPS didn't want.

I would also expect some 748F in the future, but UPS is still getting new 744F and 744SF planes so the need for the 748F right away is not as strong. Maybe more 744SF for the near future, and 748F at a later time...
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zvezda
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:26 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 2):
Maybe they will order the A330F instead.

I hope so!

Quoting WestJetYQQ (Reply 4):
Who didn't see this coming?

 Smile

Quoting CrazyHorse (Reply 1):
maybe the end of the A380F, if this come true.

This is virtually certain.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 15):
With all due respect, there is no way Airbus DOESN'T know UPS will be cancelling if they are doing it next week. You are fooling yourself if you don't think there's been a constant dialog back and forth between the two companies since FedEX bailed out.

 checkmark  This is absolutely certain.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 15):
787F will destroy the 330F)

Yes, but I think it will be a long time before Boeing produce a 787F. By the time that happens, used A330s will be priced for conversion and that will be more attractive to a lot of customers than a new 787F. It's not clear the 787 will ever be suited to conversion. It may be that all 787Fs are new build.
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:34 pm

Quoting CrazyHorse (Reply 9):
Or the B777F instead of the A380F, the same as FedEx.

Well, probably not. The UPS A380F order was negotiated after deferring their outstanding A300F orders. They need to stick with Airbus, or they will loose their money which they already paid for the A300F's.

So, an A330F order is likely when they cancel their A380F's.

Cheers!  wave 
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baron95
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:35 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 21):
I expect UPS to convert the order to 20+ A330F. Remember, the A380F was a conversion of A300F aircraft UPS didn't want.

Well, there is another possibillity to this chapter... UPS orders A300Fs. UPS figures they don't need them. UPS wants out. Airbus gives UPS a "get out of jail but not free - aka bail" card and lets then convert to A380F to mutual benefit. UPS then figures they no longer need A380F, but are stuck. Airbus screws up and has a 2 year delay. UPS now has contractual reasons to cancel and "get out of jail free" with no penalties. UPS cancels and does not order any freighter from Airbus. UPS then feasts on 767-BCFs, 748Fs or whatever it is that they want whenever they want.

I don't think we can rule this ending.
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WINGS
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:41 pm

Even though this spells bad news for the A380F program, I think that this move by UPS, had been expected since FedEx bailed out of the program. Had this cancelation been for the A388 pax, I would be more concerned.

Like some have already mentioned, this cancellation will automatically free up earlier delivery slots. So Airbus has the following options to make.

1* Provide launch customers (SQ, QF, EK,) earlier delivery schedules. This would help in terms of compensation payments.
2* Offer these slots to new customers. (BA, CX, SAA, etc,)
3* Offer these slots for those airlines that still hold options for the A380. (AF, LH, KE, Thai)


Regards,
Wings
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columba
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:52 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 25):
Offer these slots to new customers. (BA, CX, SAA, etc,)

Nice thought -although I don´t believe SAA will order it -but to get BA it might be a brilliant idea
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
zvezda
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:53 pm

After the UPS cancellation is confirmed, cummulative net sales of current VLA offerings will be 156 WhaleJets vs 78 747-8s. However, total JumboJet sales during the period the WhaleJet has been on sale are 161.
 
n1786b
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:59 pm

Quoting EvilForce (Reply 5):
PARIS, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Airbus said on Friday it had no information on reported plans by delivery company United Parcel Service Inc. to cancel an order for 10 A380 cargo planes.



Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 7):
Ya like they had no information of additional delays, or any of the other things that have gone wrong with Airbus (i.e. Streif leaving, etc., etc., etc.) IF UPS does cancel this statement by Airbus just further damages their credibility.

All of this is more Airbus obfuscation - plane and simple (pun intended).

According to the article in Les Echos, the A380F was canceled "a while ago" ("decision prise de longue date" en francais) and the only reason why they didn't announce it is simple.

They are currently extending the runway in Hamburg for the A380F Program and are in a legal battle with several associations who want to stop it. The last court decision is due today. They don't want to stop the program right now (which the announce of UPS pulling out would do) because the work has already started and they don't want to stop it. If they were to cancel or postpone the A380F program, they would be defenseless in court and would most certainly lose to the associations wanting to halt the runway extension.

Les Echos Page 24


I also wonder if all of this is is related to the A380-related costs that were "not originally envisaged" announced Wednesday.

- n1786b
 
baron95
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:02 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 27):
After the UPS cancellation is confirmed, cummulative net sales of current VLA offerings will be 156 WhaleJets vs 78 747-8s. However, total JumboJet sales during the period the WhaleJet has been on sale are 161.

To me it is already amazing that we are talking about 747 sales vis-a-vis A380. To be talking about a possible horse race between the two just blows my mind.

So just for the fun of it, lets say that on top of the UPS cancelation, EK cancels about half (22) of their later delivery A380s and orders an equivalent seat count of 748Is - say 30. That would then make the numbers A380 = 134, 748 = 118. WOW. One customer flip away from virtual parity.!!!
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RichardPrice
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:03 pm

Not totally surprising, as many of you have said - this has been predicted for a while.

I dont envisage a cancellation of hte A380F program, more of an ongoing suspension incase freighter orders become apparent later on in the process.
 
baron95
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:06 pm

Quoting N1786b (Reply 28):
If they were to cancel or postpone the A380F program, they would be defenseless in court and would most certainly lose to the associations wanting to halt the runway extension.

Maybe they just made up the A380F as an excuse to get a longer runway  Smile

They just need to keep the "hope alive" for a few more days till the asphalt cools off.
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keesje
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:15 pm

Well I wouldn't like to be UPS, having the only A380F's on order. 10 is an order book nobody likes, Airbus included.


Quoting N1786b (Reply 28):
According to the article in Les Echos, the A380F was canceled "a while ago"

Not unlikely IMO. Airbus would probably prefer to invest engineering / resources in the A320E, A350, A400 and new passenger A380 versions.

As for the UPS A380F slots, they give opportunity to speed up delivery /limit damages or give new customers early options.

It's sad for Airbus the -F gets delayed, but it looks like it's not the worst thing that could happen (or has already happened).
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
zvezda
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:16 pm

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 29):
To me it is already amazing that we are talking about 747 sales vis-a-vis A380. To be talking about a possible horse race between the two just blows my mind.

I predicted last year that net cummulative 747-8 sales would exceed net cummulative WhaleJet sales by the end of 2007. Others have predicted that will happen before the WhaleJet's EIS (which may or may not be before the end of 2007).

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 29):
So just for the fun of it, lets say that on top of the UPS cancelation, EK cancels about half (22) of their later delivery A380s and orders an equivalent seat count of 748Is - say 30. That would then make the numbers A380 = 134, 748 = 118. WOW. One customer flip away from virtual parity.!!!

That would be a flip of half a customer.  Smile

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 30):
I dont envisage a cancellation of hte A380F program, more of an ongoing suspension incase freighter orders become apparent later on in the process.

I also don't expect an official cancellation of the A380F program just yet. Despite the clarity that there will never be A380Fs ordered again, I expect it will officially be a suspension of the program. I think the A380F program will be cancelled only when the entire WhaleJet program is cancelled -- probably in 5 to 8 years.
 
N1120A
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:19 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 2):
Maybe they will order the A330F instead.

Would more likely go for the 777F

Quoting CrazyHorse (Reply 9):
Or the B777F instead of the A380F, the same as FedEx.

Nah, they would likely go for the 748F
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
zvezda
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:23 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 34):
Would more likely go for the 777F



Quoting N1120A (Reply 34):
Nah, they would likely go for the 748F

Are you referring to UPS in both cases?
 
N1120A
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:25 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 35):
Are you referring to UPS in both cases?

Yes. 777F over A330F, 748F over 777F
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
astuteman
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:28 pm

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 15):
With all due respect, there is no way Airbus DOESN'T know UPS will be cancelling if they are doing it next week. You are fooling yourself if you don't think there's been a constant dialog back and forth between the two companies since FedEX bailed out.

And in fact, without any doubt, since the last delay was published, many, many months ago.......(I think it's called..."negotiation"...  Smile )

Regards
 
zvezda
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:34 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 36):
Yes. 777F over A330F, 748F over 777F

I suspected that as a possibility. Just wanted to be clear, as I value your opinions.  Smile Thanks.
 
andessmf
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:44 pm

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 8):
That frees Airbus from having to worry/develop/certify the A380F when that program is so much behind and in the red.

Does not matter what way it is spinned, the loss of the A380 freighter is a bad for the A380. Count how many 747s freighters are out there that can now only be replaced by a 747, not an A380. It is a very large market Airbus has virtually abandoned.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 32):
As for the UPS A380F slots, they give opportunity to speed up delivery /limit damages or give new customers early options.

See above. By not providing an economically viable A380F, Airbus has kissed off selling, let's say, 100 additional aircraft, or maybe more.
 
da man
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Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2001 8:27 am

RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:48 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 20):
Leahy said early last year that the first parts for the first F model had been made back then so it's a lot further on than engineering work being done.

Also, I remember reading in a recent issue of Flight International recently that the first set of wings for the F model were already on the production line in England.
War Eagle!
 
scouseflyer
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Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2006 7:02 pm

RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:50 pm

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 39):
See above. By not providing an economically viable A380F, Airbus has kissed off selling, let's say, 100 additional aircraft, or maybe more.

But if they do freeze the F model, as has been said before, most of the maths has already been done on this bird so they'll be able to dust it off and start selling it again in maybe 5 years time if someone comes along and says - I'll have 30 please! ( a bit like the A332F which was apparntly designed several years ago and then put on hold due to strong sales of the Pax version).
 
andessmf
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 6:52 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 41):

That is true, and quite possible. But we won't really know that till we get the real reason why Fedex and UPS cancelled their orders.
 
zvezda
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:00 pm

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 39):
It is a very large market Airbus has virtually abandoned.

It seems more like the market has abandoned Airbus.

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 42):
we won't really know that till we get the real reason why Fedex and UPS cancelled their orders.

The market abandoned the A380F because the tonne/mile costs are too high.
 
leelaw
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:20 pm

When, after years of effort, Mr. Udvar-Hazy & Associates couldn't place a measily 10 or fewer aircraft with operators before 2013, be it pax luxury-liners or freight haulers, there's trouble in Airbus' section of VLA paradise.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
WINGS
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:24 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 44):
When, after years of effort, Mr. Udvar-Hazy & Associates couldn't place a measily 10 or fewer aircraft with operators before 2013, be it pax luxury-liners or freight haulers, there's trouble in Airbus' section of VLA paradise.

Go on believing that Leelaw. It did not stop SQ and QF from ordering more A388, despite neither airline having one single frame in their fleets.

It's also worth noting that these cancellations for the A338F would probably not be taking place had the A380 program not suffered from the various delays.

Regards,
Wings

[Edited 2007-01-19 11:47:03]
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
zvezda
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:30 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 45):
It did not stop SQ and QF from ordering more A388, despite neither airline having one single frame in their fleets.

QF and SQ had options locking in launch customer pricing in dollars. That made them very inexpensive and then they probably got good discounts on top of that as compensation for the delays so far. It would be much more impressive if Airbus could win a new WhaleJet customer.

Quoting WINGS (Reply 45):
It's also worth noting that these cancellations for the A338F would probably be taking place had the A380 program not suffered from the various delays.

I agree. The A380Fs were cancelled more because of the tonne/mile costs than because of the delays, though in the FedEx case it seems to have been a combination.
 
AerospaceFan
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:33 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 45):
It's also worth noting that these cancellations for the A338F would probably be taking place had the A380 program not suffered from the various delays.

I think that if this is so, then in placing these orders in the first place, then one could reasonably conclude that both FedEx and (assuming that the French press report is correct) UPS had made substantial errors. I wonder if you have some information that would support this conclusion.

I note that the cancellation of substantial orders is not a trivial matter given the time scale involved, as, for example, the time and effort spent in researching the issue, opportunity costs that might have been incurred, and other factors of this nature could become ripe for examination on a corporate basis as fallout from such development, particularly if, as possible, they could arguably have financially affected the canceling party. In the event that the placement of these orders was doomed to be reversed regardless, as you say, of substantial delays in A380 fulfillment, it would seem that the errors that caused that placement could invite board or even shareholder attention, in the worst case scenario, on the part of both freight carriers. Surely this could be a serious matter, if your conclusion is correct.

[Edited 2007-01-19 11:39:17]
What's fair is fair.
 
WINGS
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RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:45 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 46):

QF and SQ had options locking in launch customer pricing in dollars. That made them very inexpensive and then they probably got good discounts on top of that as compensation for the delays so far. It would be much more impressive if Airbus could win a new WhaleJet customer.

That's correct Zvezda, although one has to admit that if neither SQ and QF did not feel that their was a market/demand for such a plane, they would not be acquiring anymore. They also had the chance to cancel it's order, but so far neither have do so.

From what has become public, it seems that none of the A388 pax customers will be cancelling it's orders.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 46):


I agree. The A380Fs were cancelled more because of the tonne/mile costs than because of the delays, though in the FedEx case it seems to have been a combination.

That was a typo error on my part, although I agree with you that the B748F has made the A388F less attractive. FedEx cancellation was due to it's lack of airplanes to expand into Asia. They did what they had to do.

FedEx may not acquire the A388F, but I'm more than certain that they will end up operating converted A338's.

I feel that with an eventual A380-900F, the economics may favour the A389 vs B748F. Add in new engines, more composites, aerodynamic tweaks and I'm sure that the A389F will become very attractive for the likes of FedEx and UPS.

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
leelaw
Posts: 4517
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 4:13 pm

RE: UPS To Cancel A380F Order - French Press

Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:47 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 45):
Go on believing that Leelaw. It did not stop SQ and QF from ordering more A388, despite neither airline having one single frame in their fleets.

I wouldn't discount the importance of the those follow-on orders. Nevertheless, I don't see how that rationalizes the A380's failure to gain any traction in the lease market so far? This clear failure must be a matter of some concern in Toulouse as ILFC's ability to place large numbers of aircraft, including an increasing number of widebodies in recent years, has been a key element in Airbus' past success.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae

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