Big A380 News From UPS In A Few Days

EI321 · Mon Feb 19, 2007 3:01 am

Quoting ATCGOD (Reply 149):
Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 146):
Did I miss something? Or do I have to read all 144 posts to catch up????????

According to ATI on Friday, Airbus has been trying very hard to save the order and was in negotiations with UPS all week long.

Its hard to know what to make of it. If UPS was / is on the verge of canceling their A380s, what concessions will Airbus give them to keep the deal. Or will they offer them any. I can only think of a good deal on A332F's presuming they are still intending to close the A300 line next year. However with demand for A330s at an all time high its questionable how far Airbus would go with a discount. Its also questionable if UPS will even want more planes like this with the order for more 767s. It will be interesting to see what happens with this one.

How many DC8s do UPS have? Are the new 767s intended as DC8 replacements? Are the A380s intended as a direct replacement for the 10 747s?

[Edited 2007-02-18 19:09:49]

EI321 · Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:32 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 150):
Are the A380s intended as a direct replacement for the 10 747s?

Actually it looks as if their new -400s will replace the older jumbos.

nitrohelper · Tue Feb 20, 2007 3:21 am

If they get around 15 new 748F in five years , will that cover the lift that will lost by canceling the A380 box jets ?
Will the 380F ever get built if no one orders it. Maybe one demo model with the gear, and wings that are built?

Hamlet69 · Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:30 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 150):
I can only think of a good deal on A332F's presuming they are still intending to close the A300 line next year.

At this time, 5X does not want the A330-200F. Period. Could things change in the future? Of course. But if Airbus makes compensation toward them in order to keep the A380-800F order, it will be on the A380's themselves.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 150):
However with demand for A330s at an all time high its questionable how far Airbus would go with a discount.

I would be careful with confusing what is currently going on in the marketplace with a strong, market-driven demand for the A330. Yes, the aircraft had it's third-best sales year ever last year, and the Freighter is certainly off to a roaring start with the leasing community. As it should, the A330 in general, and the -200 in particular, is an exceptional aircraft. Therefore, if one just looks at last year's order book, one would get a very mis-construed view of what is actually going on in the market right now.

Regards,

Hamlet69

billreid · Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:45 am

Quoting D L X (Reply 34):
Two things about that statement:

1) If he really is a UPS pilot, he really shouldn't be sharing company secrets on the internet.
2) How do you know he's telling the truth? I doubt he's a UPS pilot.

Pilots are not usually in the know.

SEPilot · Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:49 am

Quoting BillReid (Reply 154):
Pilots are not usually in the know.

Are you implying they get the mushroom treatment? (kept in the dark & fed bullsh**)

scouseflyer · Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:36 pm

I'm wondering if there is a story here or not...........

WINGS · Tue Feb 20, 2007 6:48 pm

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 153):

I would be careful with confusing what is currently going on in the marketplace with a strong, market-driven demand for the A330. Yes, the aircraft had it's third-best sales year ever last year, and the Freighter is certainly off to a roaring start with the leasing community. As it should, the A330 in general, and the -200 in particular, is an exceptional aircraft. Therefore, if one just looks at last year's order book, one would get a very mis-construed view of what is actually going on in the market right now.

That's correct Hamlet69, It's wise to note that the A330 had an exceptional year in 2006, although some of the order were indirectly placed due to the delays with the A388, and the re-launch of the A350XWB. In 2007 I'm predicting that the A330 series will continue to do well, and even possibly even breaking it's previous record of 110 frames ordered in 2000. This trend will continue due to the recent launch of the A332F.

Currently Airbus has the following Orders/Commitments for the A330.

United Arab Air Force (A332MRTT) x 3
Saudi Arabian Air Force (A332MRTT) x 2
Guggenheim (A332F) x 6
Thai Airways International (A333) x 8
MNG Cargo (A332F) x 2
Flyington (A332F) x 6
Intrepid (A332F) x 20
Avion Aircraft Trading (A332F) x 6

Rumoured:
Transaero (A332) x 8
Aeroflot (A332) x 15

From these figures it does seem that the A330 isn't going down without a fight.

Regards,
Wings

art · Tue Feb 20, 2007 8:33 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 157):
Currently Airbus has the following Orders/Commitments for the A330.

United Arab Air Force (A332MRTT) x 3
Saudi Arabian Air Force (A332MRTT) x 2
Guggenheim (A332F) x 6
Thai Airways International (A333) x 8
MNG Cargo (A332F) x 2
Flyington (A332F) x 6
Intrepid (A332F) x 20
Avion Aircraft Trading (A332F) x 6

From these figures it does seem that the A330 isn't going down without a fight.

Regards,
Wings

It looks like the A330F has a healthy future for many years in the absence of any direct competitor. After the "A380 delay compensation priced" and the "A350 delay interim lift priced" A330 orders finish, I presume that demand for the pax version will fade away. I guess margins on the A330F are good, while margins on A330 sales would contribute comparatively little to Airbus' bottom line, so would Airbus care that much?

Did the UPS 767F order rule out any "A380F delay compensation priced" A330F order, or was that never a possibility?

Joni · Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:03 pm

It doesn't look like there was anything to the rumour in the thread-starter, as the "few days" have come and gone.

CV580Freak · Wed Feb 21, 2007 12:57 am

Quote :

German magazine Focus reported in its latest issue that UPS, the last remaining customer for the A380 mega-freighter, would maintain its order. “We are keeping to the order,” UPS senior executive David Abney told Jürgen Rüttgers, state premier of North Rhine Westphalia, on the latter’s recent USA visit, according to the magazine. “We need the A380F first in the years 2009/2010, and Airbus has assured us there will be no delays to the planned delivery,” Abney was quoted as saying.

https://www.cep-research.com/cepresearch/repository/news/2007/february/news_200207.html

scouseflyer · Wed Feb 21, 2007 12:58 am

Quoting CV580Freak (Reply 160):
German magazine Focus reported in its latest issue that UPS, the last remaining customer for the A380 mega-freighter, would maintain its order

If this is proven, then it's great news! Maybe we'll see an order from FX once these birds go into service?

ncelhr · Wed Feb 21, 2007 1:06 am

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 161):
If this is proven, then it's great news! Maybe we'll see an order from FX once these birds go into service?

Very likely. If you study a 10 year growth of worldwide next day delivery services + oil prices + environmental pressures, you'll see that bigger is required.

ATCGOD · Wed Feb 21, 2007 1:18 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 159):
It doesn't look like there was anything to the rumour in the thread-starter, as the "few days" have come and gone.

I think we should take him at his word. He did apparantly know that Airbus and UPS were in talks all last week before even ATI knew. I'd say he's got some industry source somewhere, perhaps what they thought was going to happen didn't happen. So let's give him some credit for that, at least.

TeamAmerica · Wed Feb 21, 2007 1:36 am

Quoting Ncelhr (Reply 162):
If you study a 10 year growth of worldwide next day delivery services + oil prices + environmental pressures, you'll see that bigger is required.

Alternatively, high fuel prices and environmental pressures could raise costs of next day delivery services and hence lower the demand. It's also possible that the above concerns will leave some pax A380's available for early conversion, and FX would likely prefer such conversions over new-build freighters. The future of the A380F is cloudy, at best. airplane

astuteman · Fri Feb 23, 2007 7:47 pm

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 138):
For the A380, the growth wing area wetted area it is carrying will be more penalizing since it's span loading advantage over the 748i is only 6.6%

I've spent a bit of time considering this, and still have questions:-

The "span loading" already accounts for the MTOW in its calculation.

Does your calculation therefore mean that the A388 [b]in absolute terms[b] has 6.6% lower lift drag than the 748i, despite being 27% heavier, and 19% more capacious than the 748i at MTOW? (But at the expense of higher wetted area drag..).

That would be quite extraordinary, if true, and would certainly explain why no pax versions have been cancelled to date.

To avoid lengthening this thread further, I'll start one in tech-ops to discuss the various aspects of drag, span and wing loading.

Regards

manni · Fri Feb 23, 2007 9:31 pm

Quoting Art (Reply 158):
After the "A380 delay compensation priced" and the "A350 delay interim lift priced" A330 orders finish, I presume that demand for the pax version will fade away.

IIRC Airbus sold 119 A330s last year, all of the passenger variant. Airlines that might have recieved discounts on their A330 orders as compensation for their delayed A380s are SQ (19), LH (5) and QF (8). In the worst case Airbus might have given a discount on 32 A330s. I do not recal any airline ordering A330s as compensation for the delayed A350s. Demand wont fade away that quickly IMO. IIRC Mr. Leahy predicted in 2005 that they would produce A330s for another 10 years...

Airbus booked the 600th A330 somewhere towards the end of last year. Anyone has the current total of A330s sold?

WINGS · Fri Feb 23, 2007 10:05 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 166):

Airbus booked the 600th A330 somewhere towards the end of last year. Anyone has the current total of A330s
sold?

I have those numbers,

Airbus currently list the following orders for the A330 series.

A330-200 x 393
A330-200F x 6
A330-300 x 281

Total: 680 frames.

Airbus also has the following pending orders,

UAE Air Force (MRTT) x 3
Saudi Arabia Air Force (MRTT) x 2
Thai Airways International (A333) x 8
MNG Cargo (A332F) x 2
Flyington (A332F) x 6
Intrepid (A332F) x 20
Avion Aircraft Trading (A332F) x 6

Total: 47 frames.

The grand total for firm and pending orders are 727 frames.

PS: We also have several rumours floating, Transaero, Aeroflot, AirAsiaX.

Regards,
Wings

manni · Fri Feb 23, 2007 10:51 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 167):

Excellent! Thanks a lot Wings.

With 680 firm orders and another 55 commitments (I think we can include Transaero here) Airbus will likely hit the 750th firm order for the A330 this year, and if the volume of A330 orders booked in the past weeks is an indication of things to come, 800 could be within reach this year.

Quoting WINGS (Reply 167):
PS: We also have several rumours floating, Transaero, Aeroflot, AirAsiaX.

IIRC Transaeo has a pending order for 8 A330s. Aeroflot is rumoured to be in the market for upto 15 A330s, altough only 10 of them might be newly acquired from Airbus. The AirAsiaX announcement is due soon. It will be interesting to see what aircraft they've selected. Apparently Etihad is also in the market for upto 7 A330F's.

manni · Fri Feb 23, 2007 10:55 pm

Is this the announcement?

LOUISVILLE, Ky.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--UPS (NYSE:UPS - News) and Airbus signed an agreement yesterday that sets out a timetable for deciding the status of UPS's order for the freighter version of the A380. The agreement specifies changed delivery dates for the A380F and provides for possible termination of the original purchase agreement by either party later in 2007.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070223/20070223005297.html?.v=1

Stitch · Fri Feb 23, 2007 11:02 pm

Looks like it, Manni.

So 5X is going to keep their planes, taking FX's (and perhaps ILFC's) revised delivery dates, yet if Airbus announces another delay, they can walk away (presumably without penalty) or even Airbus can, if they feel they need the resources on the passenger variant (presumably with penalty, even if it is just allowing 5X to get out from under their A300F order, as well).

ATCGOD · Fri Feb 23, 2007 11:27 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 170):
o 5X is going to keep their planes, taking FX's (and perhaps ILFC's) revised delivery dates, yet if Airbus announces another delay, they can walk away (presumably without penalty) or even Airbus can, if they feel they need the resources on the passenger variant (presumably with penalty, even if it is just allowing 5X to get out from under their A300F order, as well).

Hey Stitch. I'm not sure how you read so much into that. All I got out of it is that they set a deadline to determine what they will do. Most likely they wanted to agree on a date so either UPS could crunch the numbers and see if the order would still be beneficial to them or so Airbus doesn't have this lingering over their head and can scrap A380F research and focus on the pax version. Anyways, let's hope they keep this order...I'm quite certain UPS will regret cancelling, if in fact they do.

Blasphemystic · Fri Feb 23, 2007 11:29 pm

I just saw on BBCnews.com that UPS will cancel if there are any more delays.

Stitch · Fri Feb 23, 2007 11:38 pm

Quoting ATCGOD (Reply 171):
Hey Stitch. I'm not sure how you read so much into that.

I may indeed be reading too much into it, but the Focus article says "Airbus assured UPS there will be no further delays" and the Yahoo article notes "the agreement specifies changed delivery dates for the A380F and provides for possible termination of the original purchase agreement by either party later in 2007."

Frankly, 5X management would be negligent to not demand a no-penalty cancellation clause from Airbus if the A388 slips again, unless 5X doesn't really care when they get A388s because they figure "whenever they show up, we'll find something to do with them". If that's the case, I'd be selling my 5X stock and buying FX. Smile

5X also had a large outstanding A300F order (90 frames) and signing the A380 order let them off the hook for the final 37 A300Fs. So I would also hope that they would have forced Airbus to let them off the hook for those planes, as well, if 5X doesn't need or want them anymore.

But I do agree with your suggestion that the 2007 cancellation clause may very well be for both 5X and Airbus to figure out when they can deliver the plane and whether or not Airbus feels that date is achievable and 5X feels that date is acceptable.

Sangas · Fri Feb 23, 2007 11:39 pm

UPS Press Release:

Quote:
UPS, Airbus Revise A380 Agreement

LOUISVILLE, Feb. 23, 2007 - UPS (NYSE:UPS) and Airbus signed an agreement yesterday that sets out a timetable for deciding the status of UPS's order for the freighter version of the A380. The agreement specifies changed delivery dates for the A380F and provides for possible termination of the original purchase agreement by either party later in 2007.

Deliveries of UPS's first 10 A380s were originally scheduled to begin in 2009 and run through 2012.

"UPS's decision to purchase the A380 freighter was based on a lengthy evaluation of our future network needs to meet customer demands across a variety of global trade lanes," said Bob Lekites, UPS's vice president of Airline and International Operations. "Those needs still exist and UPS has been carefully evaluating various options since Airbus announced production delays late last year. This agreement will provide us additional time to evaluate our network requirements and make a decision once and for all as to how best to ensure service to our customers..."

http://ups.com/pressroom/us/press_re...ses/press_release/0,0,4868,00.html

UPS Pilot · Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:05 am

Sorry I got my Fridays messed up Smile

To The few OK one so called "Lawyers" named Damon or DLX who posted negative things about me in above posts please stick to your profession and I'll stick to mine. Have a great weekend!!!!

osiris30 · Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:13 am

Quoting D L X (Reply 31):
Why do people post stuff like this? Why not wait until you actually have news that you can share? I bet there's no news at all.

Want some ketchup for that hat you'll be eating Wink

(Personally I prefer mine with tartar sauce, but hey Smile

)

On a more serious note, like I said time would tell whether or not UPSPilot's statement would bear fruit. It's never a bad idea to exercise a little patience Smile

Quoting UPS Pilot (Reply 175):
Sorry I got my Fridays messed up

Happens. And thanks for the heads up. But next time get your Friday's right :P

UPS Pilot · Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:15 am

Quoting D L X (Reply 34):
Two things about that statement:

1) If he really is a UPS pilot, he really shouldn't be sharing company secrets on the internet.
2) How do you know he's telling the truth? I doubt he's a UPS pilot.

DLX if you are a lawyer then you would have noticed in my statement that I did in NO WAY share company secrets. I just said look for the news not what the news was right?

So I got my Fridays messed up I was told next Friday which was last Friday but it was meant as this Friday. Just because I earn a nice living doing your hobby DLX doesn't mean you should doubt my credibility on a public forum.

EI321 · Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:15 am

theres a 'part 2' thread running on this topic now

APFPilot1985 · Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:29 am

Quoting D L X (Reply 31):
Why do people post stuff like this? Why not wait until you actually have news that you can share? I bet there's no news at all.

Boy between calling the national championship game and now getting this one wrong you must really like the way your foot tastes.

I am glad to see this, as much as I like boeing I still want to see some A380's operated in the US

UPS Pilot · Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:31 am

Quoting BillReid (Reply 154):
Pilots are not usually in the know.

Bill, they are when you have people "in the know" on your aircraft. Smile

ATCGOD · Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:36 am

Quoting UPS Pilot (Reply 177):
Just because I earn a nice living doing your hobby DLX doesn't mean you should doubt my credibility on a public forum.

Quoting ATCGOD (Reply 163):
I think we should take him at his word. He did apparantly know that Airbus and UPS were in talks all last week before even ATI knew. I'd say he's got some industry source somewhere, perhaps what they thought was going to happen didn't happen. So let's give him some credit for that, at least.

Never doubted you.

TeamAmerica · Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:47 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 170):
5X is going to keep their planes, taking FX's (and perhaps ILFC's) revised delivery dates

Latest news is that 5X has deferred delivery altogether, not taken up earlier slots. See Reuters update: http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...RBUS-UPDATE-2.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna

"NEW YORK, Feb 23 (Reuters) - United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS.N: Quote, Profile , Research), the last remaining customer for the Airbus A380 superjumbo freighter, said on Friday it reached an agreement for Airbus to push back delivery dates of the planes and left open its option to cancel the order outright."

Deferral with an option to cancel. airplane

TeamAmerica · Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:51 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 178):
theres a 'part 2' thread running on this topic now

Indeed: Big A380 News From UPS In A Few Days Part 2 (by Blasphemystic Feb 23 2007 in Civil Aviation)

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