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Hamlet69
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2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 3:25 am

Hello All!

Well, I'm back for another year! I will be playing around with the look and feel of the thread this year, but for now it's been a few months, so let's get right to it, shall we?



Big version: Width: 150 Height: 50 File size: 2kb

Firm
AirAsia - 50 A320
Airbus Corporate Jets - 2 A318, 1 A340-300, 1 A340-500
Guggenheim Aviation - 6 A330-200F
Spirit Airlines - 30 A319


Pending
Airbus Corporate Jets - 1 A318, 2 A320, 1 A340-500, 1 A380-800
Avion Group - 6 A330-200F
Bangkok Airways - 6 A350-800
British Airways - 4 A320
China - 20 A350XWB*
East Star Airlines - 10 A320
Flyington Freighters - 6 A330-200F
G.E. Capital - 10 A350-800
Intrepid Aviation - 20 A330-200F
Israir - 2 A320
Jagson Airlines - 14 A321
Jazeera Airways - 6 A320
MNG Airlines - 2 A330-200F
Qatar Airways - 60 A350*
Royal Jordanian - 2 A319, 2 A321
Singapore Airlines - 20 A350XWB-900
Thai Airways Int'l - 8 A330-300
Transaero - 4 A320, 8 A330-200
Yemenia - 6 A350-800


Totals
Gross: 90
Net: 90
Pending: 221



Big version: Width: 150 Height: 50 File size: 2kb

Firm
Unidentified - 1 737-800, 3 767-300ER, 4 777-200LR, 1 777-300ER, 4 787-8, 5 787*


Pending
Air China - 10 777 (mix of -200LR & -200F)
Air New Zealand - 4 787-9
Avolar - 20 737-700
Azerbaijan Airlines - 2 737-900ER, 3 787-8
British Airways - 10 777*
China Southern - 6 777-200F
Emirates Airlines - 12 777-300ER
Flyington Freighters - 4 777-200F
Garuda Indonesia - 18 737-800, 10 787-8
Hong Kong Airways - 30 737-800, 10 787-8
Oman Air - 2 737-800
Philippine Airlines - 2 777-300ER
TAM - 4 777-300ER
UPS - 27 767-300F


Totals
Gross: 13
Net: 13
Pending: 172


Best Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 
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N328KF
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RE: 2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:04 am

Welcome back! It's great to see this series of high signal:noise threads resuming.

The UPS 767s are no longer pending: Boeing and UPS Finalize Major 767 Freighter Order
“In the age of information, ignorance is a choice.”
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WestWing
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RE: 2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:11 am

Hamlet: Thank you once again for these threads. They are a great reference source.

N328KF: The UPS 767F order will show up on this Thursday's update. In the past, Hamlet has said he classifies orders as firm only after they appear on the Boeing database.

Question regarding the pending PR 77W order. It was reported that PR would lease two frames from GECAS at the same time. Have the two GECAS frames already been accounted for, or should they appear in the "pending" column for Boeing also?
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Hamlet69
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RE: 2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:12 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 1):
The UPS 767s are no longer pending

True, but unless something rather drastic happens, I will continue my policy of only listing as "Firm" those orders that appear on the respective manufacturer's websites. Thus, this Thursday the UPS order will go from Pending to Firm. Until then, however, it remains "Pending."  Wink

Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 
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Hamlet69
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RE: 2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:17 am

Quoting WestWing (Reply 2):
Have the two GECAS frames already been accounted for, or should they appear in the "pending" column for Boeing also?

It is difficult to say, as there is some uncertainty over this. EK is supposedly leasing 5-7 more frames, in addition to the 12 more they are said to be purchasing. GECAS just ordered 7 more -300ER's, as well as 8 -200F's. If EK is leasing 5, then GECAS won't need to buy anymore to cover PR. However, if EK wants to lease 7, then somewhere GECAS or another leasor will have to place a follow-on order.


Regards,

Hamlet69
All gave some. Some gave all.
 
Hamlet69
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RE: 2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:44 am

Quoting Hamlet69 (Thread starter):
5 787*

Today we've learned that this is two orders:

Air New Zealand - 4 787-9
LOT Polish Airlines - 1 787-8



Thus, the "Pending" catergory is reduced by 4 to 168.


Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 
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WestWing
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RE: 2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:05 am

The Boeing press release mentions a total of 468 787 orders.
The January total was 452 (includes the four UFOs in Jan) and we have these five ordered in Feb, which is 457.
So at least 11 new firm 787 orders should show up in the next update, if my math is correct.

[Edited 2007-02-19 21:17:20]
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Devilfish
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RE: 2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:04 am

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 4):
If EK is leasing 5, then GECAS won't need to buy anymore to cover PR.

If PR is having some difficulties, could it be that the single UFO 773ER is the GECAS follow-on order for them?
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
EI321
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RE: 2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:20 am

Phillipine airlines is getting 773ER's?
 
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Stitch
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RE: 2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:26 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 8):
Phillipine airlines is getting 773ER's?

Yes. They took two on December 6th, 2006 with an agreement to take two more at a later date. They also agreed to lease two more from GECAS.

It is assumed that the four 77Ws they ordered used the deposits they had on their deferred 744 order which will now be cancelled.
 
EI321
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RE: 2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:46 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
Yes. They took two on December 6th, 2006 with an agreement to take two more at a later date.

Wow, how did I miss that!
 
2wingtips
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RE: 2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 12:48 pm

Boeing.

Pending: 7 773ER for Virgin Blue.
 
2wingtips
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RE: 2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 3:35 pm

Also pending for Boeing are 5 more 738s as part of the DJ announcement today for 7 773ER(+ 6 options), and 6 more ERJs.
 
WINGS
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RE: 2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:26 pm

United Arab Air Force x 3 A332MRTT.

Even though this particular order is for UAE Air Force, the airplane is based on a civilian model, and for that reason I believe that it should make part of the order tally.

UAE to buy 3 Airbus refuelling aircraft.

ABU DHABI — The United Arab Emirates Air Force will buy three military Airbus A330 refuelling aircraft rather than rival Boeing’s 767 plane, a UAE military spokesman said yesterday.

“A memorandum of understanding was signed with (Airbus parent company) EADS ... for the acquisition of a number of refuelling aircraft,” General Obeid Al Kotbi said on the second day of a defence exhibition in Abu Dhabi. The UAE Air Force had been looking at both the A330 and the US-manufactured Boeing 767, said Gen. Kotbi, who is also the spokesman for the exhibition, Idex-2007.


http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayA...ebruary623.xml§ion=theuae&col=

Regards,
Wings
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AMSSFO
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RE: 2007 Orders

Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:41 pm

I am extremely happy to see this orders thread returning!

What about these orders of A318E and A319CJ?:
http://www.eads.com/1024/en/pressdb/...ases/20070206_airbus_asia_acj.html
http://www.eads.net/1024/fr/pressdb/...s/20061017_airbus_jetalliance.html

when did Emirates order 12 77W?
 
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Stitch
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RE: 2007 Orders

Wed Feb 21, 2007 1:23 am

Quoting AMSSFO (Reply 14):
when did Emirates order 12 77W?

January 25th, 2007 - http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...161243.story?coll=chi-business-hed
 
WestWing
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RE: 2007 Orders

Wed Feb 21, 2007 1:44 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
Quoting AMSSFO (Reply 14):
when did Emirates order 12 77W?

January 25th, 2007

IIRC Emirates reportedly issued a correction to this news story saying that Flanagan was referring to existing deliveries and not to a new order for 12 frames.

Edit: See Reply 25 in More EK 777-300ERs (by Kaitak Jan 24 2007 in Civil Aviation) (just providing the info, do not know if accurate).

[Edited 2007-02-20 17:53:18]
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Stitch
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RE: 2007 Orders

Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:47 am

Quoting WestWing (Reply 16):
IIRC Emirates reportedly issued a correction to this news story saying that Flanagan was referring to existing deliveries and not to a new order for 12 frames.

Well we'll know eventually, but if Flanagan was being quoted accurately in the original report, he specifically said new orders - "We're now going to order 12 more 777-300ERs for delivery hopefully in 2008 for the same reason." (Emphasis mine)

Also, their last 777 family order was in November 2005 and that order brought them to 55 (Flangan is quoted as saying 54) so he cannot be referring to existing orders.
 
NYC777
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RE: 2007 Orders

Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:47 am

Quoting WestWing (Reply 6):
The Boeing press release mentions a total of 468 787 orders.
The January total was 452 (includes the four UFOs in Jan) and we have these five ordered in Feb, which is 457.
So at least 11 new firm 787 orders should show up in the next update, if my math is correct.

I think you're right. Boeing has 457 firm orders with 26 787 orders pending (CASGC (3), AZAL (3), Garuda (10), and Hong Kong Air (10)). I they're saying they have 468 firm orders in hand then they're going to post an order(s) for 11 more.

It seems that the 787 order train is picking up speed.

Great accounting for the 787 orders here on Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_787_orders
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manni
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RE: 2007 Orders

Wed Feb 21, 2007 10:23 am

To be added soon, 15 A330s and 22 A350s.



MOSCOW. Feb 20 (Interfax) - Aeroflot - Russian Airlines has almost
completed negotiations with the European aircraft manufacturer Airbus on
buying fifteen Airbus A330 and twenty-two A350 airliners, a source from
the Aeroflot Board of Directors told Interfax on Tuesday.
"The negotiations with Airbus have entered the final phase. The
concern has offered as early dates for starting the shipments as
possible, and although Aeroflot needs these planes even earlier, its
management understands that [Airbus] cannot make a better proposal," the
source said.


http://www.interfax.com/3/243349/news.aspx
 
manni
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RE: 2007 Orders

Wed Feb 21, 2007 6:16 pm

British Airways has turned 4 options for A320s into firm orders and has orderd 4 7772ER's
More information in the link below.

http://www.sharewatch.com/story.php?storynumber=333399

[Edited 2007-02-21 10:17:56]
 
scouseflyer
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RE: 2007 Orders

Wed Feb 21, 2007 6:21 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 19):
To be added soon, 15 A330s and 22 A350s.

I wouldn't get too excited yet about this one - I remember Aeroflot were expected to order 787s about the same time a Qantas did - in December 05!
 
manni
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RE: 2007 Orders

Wed Feb 21, 2007 6:30 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 21):
I wouldn't get too excited yet about this one - I remember Aeroflot were expected to order 787s about the same time a Qantas did - in December 05!

Don't worry, it takes more then an aircraft order to excite me  Wink
At one stage Aeroflot is going to order something, the article gives the impression that an Airbus orders is in the making. Since this topic covers firm, pending and even 'rumoured to be ordered' I feel it's appropriate to suggest to take Aeroflot into consideration. That's all.
 
Pihero
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RE: 2007 Orders

Wed Feb 21, 2007 6:31 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 21):
I wouldn't get too excited yet about this one - I remember Aeroflot were expected to order 787s about the same time a Qantas did - in December 05!

Manni should have pasted an extra paragraph on the Interfax article...
Maybe the beginning of an explanation .
Here it is :
..."Aeroflot has been choosing a supplier of long-range airliners for
its fleet between two candidates - Boeing and Airbus - for several
years. The Aeroflot management had suggested several options to the
Board of Directors for splitting the contract between Boeing and Airbus,
which would envision priority purchases from Boeing, but the Board of
Directors has not supported the proposal.
The Russian government holds 51.17% in Aeroflot, and the National
Reserve Corporation owns a total of some 30% in it"
Contrail designer
 
2wingtips
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RE: 2007 Orders

Wed Feb 21, 2007 8:56 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 22):
Since this topic covers firm, pending and even 'rumoured to be ordered' I feel it's appropriate to suggest to take Aeroflot into consideration. That's all.

Does it? I thought firm and pending orders only on this thread to keep it the high quality it has always been.
Rumours are not for this thread IMO. BTW, add 4+4 772ERs pending for BA Additionally, BA have also exercised 4 A320 options.

[Edited 2007-02-21 13:10:39]
 
scouseflyer
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RE: 2007 Orders

Wed Feb 21, 2007 8:57 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 22):
Since this topic covers firm, pending and even 'rumoured to be ordered' I feel it's appropriate to suggest to take Aeroflot into consideration. That's all.

I hope I didn't offend - I was taking the Mickey out of the ridiculous drawn out process that Aeroflot seem to go through when purchasing planes!
 
manni
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RE: 2007 Orders

Wed Feb 21, 2007 9:32 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 25):

I hope I didn't offend - I was taking the Mickey out of the ridiculous drawn out process that Aeroflot seem to go through when purchasing planes!

No offence at all!

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 24):
I thought firm and pending orders only on this thread to keep it the high quality it has always been.

As long as the firm orders are correct I'd say. The 12 773ER's listed for EK aren't exactely confirmed as pending orders either. Also take not of your own reply (post 12). Why are you bringing up the potential 773ER commitment from Virgin Blue (a deal is in the making but NOT finalised, sounds familiar not?)? Or is it something else that bothers you?  Wink

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 24):
Rumours are not for this thread IMO.

Did you read the link I posted? Hardly a rumour.

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 24):
BTW, add 4+4 772ERs pending for BA Additionally, BA have also exercised 4 A320 options.

I know (see reply 20).
 
ikramerica
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RE: 2007 Orders

Thu Feb 22, 2007 12:50 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 22):
Since this topic covers firm, pending and even 'rumoured to be ordered' I feel it's appropriate to suggest to take Aeroflot into consideration. That's all.

Rumors are for another thread. This thread is about orders and pending orders (announced). Sometimes sorting out pending is an art, but it is NOT about rumors.

Once Aeroflot announces an actual decision, then their planes go to pending.
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Hamlet69
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RE: 2007 Orders

Thu Feb 22, 2007 1:19 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 13):
Even though this particular order is for UAE Air Force, the airplane is based on a civilian model, and for that reason I believe that it should make part of the order tally.

Absolutely correct! Both Boeing and Airbus count orders from Government instituitions for civilian aircraft, whether for VIP or Military work, thus we do too.  Wink

Quoting WestWing (Reply 16):
IIRC Emirates reportedly issued a correction to this news story saying that Flanagan was referring to existing deliveries and not to a new order for 12 frames.

Here we get into a rather sticky situation. Yes, EK officially denied it's decision to order 12 more 777-300ERs. However, Mr. Flanagan was also very blunt about EK's intentions. So what do we make of it? For those who have followed the industry long enough, we know this: EK is in negotiations with Boeing for more 773ERs, in addition to the 5-7 more they are leasing from GECAS. However, price negotiations have not concluded yet and until they do, the airline will continue to deny any decision being made. A similar situation that BA found itself in last year, which is ironic considering today's press release.

Quoting Manni (Reply 19):
To be added soon, 15 A330s and 22 A350s.

Not that soon. . .  Wink For starters, the source of the 15 A330s is entirely open to debate. I had intially privately been told these would be leased (thus, no new orders). Now, we find that Aeroflot is looking on the used-market for the aircraft. http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articl...01_L21451364&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Long story short: this is not going to be a new order.

The A350's, OTOH, are an entirely different matter. Should the Russian government ever get its act together, this could possibly become a firm order. Then again, it was SUPPOSED to become a firm order last year as well, along with a same-sized 787 order (the NRC even placed deposits for the Boeing's). At this point, it is too political to state with any certainty.

Quoting Manni (Reply 22):
even 'rumoured to be ordered'

No, "rumored to be ordered" is not covered by this thread. If a friend of a friend of a pilot heard that airline X is ordering something, it will not be listed here. Now, don't get me wrong. The Aeroflot situation does not fall into that category by any means. However, this thread will only deal with Firm and "Announced Pending" orders, as well as the inevitable Cancellations.

Quoting Manni (Reply 20):
British Airways has turned 4 options for A320s into firm orders



Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 24):
Additionally, BA have also exercised 4 A320 options.

Already accounted for. See thread starter.

Quoting Manni (Reply 26):
The 12 773ER's listed for EK aren't exactely confirmed as pending orders either.

See above.

Quoting Manni (Reply 26):
Why are you bringing up the potential 773ER commitment from Virgin Blue

Because the airline has announced the order, with details, which have been confirmed by Boeing. All that is left is final price negotiations and contract signing (which can take days or months, depending on the situation).


Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 
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manni
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RE: 2007 Orders

Thu Feb 22, 2007 9:30 am

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 28):
However, this thread will only deal with Firm and "Announced Pending" orders, as well as the inevitable Cancellations.

Where do you draw the line? EK announces an order and denies it and the better outcome of the two is taken. Aeroflot says it is in negotations for 37 aircraft and it's seen as a rumour. Since the Aeroflot commitment/order is not officialy announced I can understand why you not want to include it, but neither is the EK order...
 
2wingtips
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RE: 2007 Orders

Thu Feb 22, 2007 12:47 pm

I'll go with Hamlet's discretion here. He owns this thread IMO and it should be maintained as he sees fit, which has been done very well over recent years.

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 25):
Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 24):
Rumours are not for this thread IMO.

Did you read the link I posted? Hardly a rumour.



Quoting Manni (Reply 22):
Since this topic covers firm, pending and even 'rumoured to be ordered'

You are the one who mentioned this thread was for rumored Orders Manni.

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 28):
Quoting Manni (Reply 26):
Why are you bringing up the potential 773ER commitment from Virgin Blue

Because the airline has announced the order, with details, which have been confirmed by Boeing. All that is left is final price negotiations and contract signing (which can take days or months, depending on the situation).

Thankyou very much Hamlet. The DJ 773ER commitment is clearly a pending order. Let's hope Manni can work out what a pending order is.
 
BA
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RE: 2007 Orders

Thu Feb 22, 2007 1:00 pm

MEA's order for 4 A319-100s and 4 A330-200s has now been firmed up.

It can be seen listed here:
http://www.airbus.com/odxml/orders_and_deliveries.xls
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manni
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RE: 2007 Orders

Thu Feb 22, 2007 2:20 pm

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 31):
He owns this thread IMO and it should be maintained as he sees fit, which has been done very well over recent years.

He certainly has done a good job in recent years keeping track of orders and commitments, and many others have contibuted to his threads. If Hamlet doesn't feel like recording the pending Aeroflot orders, it's up to him. In the end, it's firm orders that are most important.

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 31):
You are the one who mentioned this thread was for rumored Orders Manni.

Well, I worded it wrong. Aeroflot is more then just a rumour. Listing Air Asia's upcoming widebody order would be a rumour as the airline hasn't given a clue yet which way the order wil swing.

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 31):
The DJ 773ER commitment is clearly a pending order.

It is certainly less pending then TAM's order for 4 773ER's and not more pending then Aeroflot's order. What we know is that the airline has confirmed that it is in exclusive negotations with Boeing about a 777 order. No MOU, LOI or firm order has been signed or atleast the airline has not announced that. While it is very likely that a confirmation of either on of those will be announced soon, you'd be counting your chickens before they're hatched by including them now. Since they will likely be firmed up, that's not really wrong , but for the accuracy of the thread you'd want to be consequent and take such announcements for what they are no matter who's ordering. Not?

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 31):
Let's hope Manni can work out what a pending order is.

This comment wasn't necessary. If you can't have a discussion without going personal, I'd rather not have one with you.
 
2wingtips
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RE: 2007 Orders

Thu Feb 22, 2007 2:51 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 33):
It is certainly less pending then TAM's order for 4 773ER's and not more pending then Aeroflot's order.

Your opinion only. I wouldn't count anything from SU as pending, due to their lack of activity over the years. Promise a lot and deliver little. Even today I have read they hope to sign for the 350s some time this year. So, it may or may not happen in 2007.

Quoting Manni (Reply 33):
What we know is that the airline has confirmed that it is in exclusive negotations with Boeing about a 777 order. No MOU, LOI or firm order has been signed or atleast the airline has not announced that.

With demand for the 777 line being what it is, you can be assured that DJ have a LoI/MoU with Boeing.

Quoting Manni (Reply 33):
Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 31):
Let's hope Manni can work out what a pending order is.

This comment wasn't necessary. If you can't have a discussion without going personal, I'd rather not have one with you.

Completely necessary given your past confusions over the QR A350 commitment and severe attitude at times.

Quoting Manni (Reply 26):
Or is it something else that bothers you?

For instance, what does the above comment mean?

Anyway, contact me privately if you have personal grievances. I'm not going to railroad this thread any longer.
 
EI321
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RE: 2007 Orders

Thu Feb 22, 2007 7:26 pm

Seriously, as can be seen, including orders like Aeroflot/Virgin Blue/etc in the pending list is giving rise to mixed ambiguity and makes the pending list a bit cloudy. Why cant the 'official orders thread' stance on pending orders consist of signed MOU's and LOI's only? If Virgin Blue or Aeroflot are close to one of these, then for the sake of clarity why cant we just wait a little while until they do proceed with MOU's or LOI's.
 
2wingtips
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RE: 2007 Orders

Thu Feb 22, 2007 7:55 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 35):
Why cant the 'official orders thread' stance on pending orders consist of signed MOU's and LOI's only?

Because how do you know if they have a signed LoI/MoU? I've already said DJ must have signed something with Boeing to receive late 2008 773ER slots. Boeing now doesn't advertise LoIs/MoUs as a matter of course, so pending orders have to be done on a best judgement basis IMO.
 
NYC777
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RE: 2007 Orders

Fri Feb 23, 2007 12:08 am

Well first Hamlet has done a great job keeping track of orders. He has set a criteria as to what is a final order and what is a pending and what should be included. Since this is his thread who are we to dictate to him what should be considered a pending order or not. Just as long as the criteria is applied to both Boeing and Airbus equally he should continue to apply the criteria he deems reasonable.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
EI321
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RE: 2007 Orders

Fri Feb 23, 2007 12:15 am

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 35):
Because how do you know if they have a signed LoI/MoU?

Official releases from either the airlines or manufacturers.

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 35):
I've already said DJ must have signed something with Boeing to receive late 2008 773ER slots

Slots dont always become orders. BA have had ten slots for 777s for a while but there has not been a pending order for ten BA 777s listed, Aeroflot had slots for 787s but these were not added to the pending order list, etc
 
ikramerica
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RE: 2007 Orders

Fri Feb 23, 2007 12:22 am

I notice only a few people are not happy with Hamlet's counting, and these people are also staunch Airbus cheerleaders, so make of that what you will. I think he's done a great job over the years of sorting through the hype to keep track of real orders and commitments, and though nobody is perfect, his methodology has made it pretty easy to keep track of things. I've never seen him show preference or bias, and when someone points out an order they think he missed, he thanks them and either ads it or explains why he isn't counting it yet (or it has already been counted).

So will some of you STOP ARGUING already? It's confrontational against someone who doesn't deserve that kind of treatment, IMHO.

Thanks for your work, Hamlet!

PS - I also thank WINGS for his thread, but as I said then, Hamlet has been doing these for years and there was no reason not to let him continue. People got impatient that there was no January thread, but considering Airbus doesn't announce orders for January until february (via their website), this made sense. It also took a while to sort out what orders were actually booked in 2006 and only announced in 2007. But we are on track again.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 15100
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: 2007 Orders

Fri Feb 23, 2007 12:26 am

WINGS

What i was thinking you might do, if you are up for it, is do a monthly order summary, like "January Order Totals" and then list the planes with pictures. I really do like those pictures, but when put in the general order thread, they tend to bog down the thread and make it slow to load. But if you did 12 threads that only showed the order totals for that month, or maybe also the DELIVERIES for that month as well with pictures of those liveries (and some of the delivered planes possibly), that would be cool.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
WestWing
Posts: 1139
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 2:01 am

RE: 2007 Orders

Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:40 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 18):
I think you're right. Boeing has 457 firm orders with 26 787 orders pending (CASGC (3), AZAL (3), Garuda (10), and Hong Kong Air (10)). I they're saying they have 468 firm orders in hand then they're going to post an order(s) for 11 more.

Nope I was wrong. I didn't read the press release carefully. It said 468 "orders and commitments".
Clearly some commitments are "more equal" than others allowing them to be counted.
The best time to plant a tree is 40 years ago. The second best time is today.
 
AMSSFO
Posts: 912
Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2005 8:42 am

RE: 2007 Orders

Fri Feb 23, 2007 2:14 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 37):
Slots dont always become orders. BA have had ten slots for 777s for a while but there has not been a pending order for ten BA 777s listed, Aeroflot had slots for 787s but these were not added to the pending order list, etc

BA's are listed by Hamlet:

Quoting Hamlet69 (Thread starter):
Pending
[....]
British Airways - 10 777*

True, they just ordered only 4.

SU 787's commitment was listed last year as pending until the slots were taken back by Boeing and Hamlet removed them from his pending list

Ikramerica already has said it very well:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 38):
I think he's done a great job over the years of sorting through the hype to keep track of real orders and commitments, and though nobody is perfect, his methodology has made it pretty easy to keep track of things. I've never seen him show preference or bias, and when someone points out an order they think he missed, he thanks them and either ads it or explains why he isn't counting it yet (or it has already been counted).

I completely agree
 
Hamlet69
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2000 2:45 am

RE: 2007 Orders

Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:34 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 29):
Where do you draw the line?

Without being too blunt: a) I've been in and around the industry long enough b) I have some VERY good sources  Wink

In regards to EK, it is entirely possible that they will not order 12 777-300ERs. Hence the reason they are in the "Pending" column and not the "Firm" column. However, it has been my experience that when a rumor comes out from reputable sources (in this case, none other than Mr. Flanagan himself), and then the airline takes the official stance of denial, that usually means one thing: the order is serious, but negotiations are on-going. That is why I have included it.

Now let's look at Aeroflot. All of last year, we heard exactly what was "supposed" to happen, but never did. Again this year, every Aeroflot official is talking about what is "supposed" to happen to anyone and everyone who will listen. Just yesterday I read them talking about how the 787 deal was merely on hold, and not written off, even though Boeing themselves have written off any deal with Aeroflot. Once again, this is my opinion only, but when a new report comes out every other day about a potential deal that "we hope will be finalized by the end of this year," that does not sound too promising. OTOH, I have given it some thought and, as this deal has been announced by the airline, and does not seem to be any more problematic than some other announced A350 deals, I will include it in the "Pending" column.

Quoting BA (Reply 31):
MEA's order for 4 A319-100s and 4 A330-200s has now been firmed up.

Not sure why you are bringing this up. This order was firmed up in December 2006, and has not been mentioned in this thread. . .

Quoting Manni (Reply 32):
In the end, it's firm orders that are most important.

Agree 110%!!

Quoting EI321 (Reply 34):
Why cant the 'official orders thread' stance on pending orders consist of signed MOU's and LOI's only?

Two reasons: 1) Neither airlines nor the respective manufacturers often clearly state whether a MOU/LOI have been signed or not. It is common for these to be signed without any public announcement (how many of you knew that VS had signed an LOI for 777-200ER's back in the mid-'90's?) and thus hard to tell break down 2) As the aforementioned example of VS clearly shows - an MOU/LOI can easily expire without action being taken to firm up the order, which makes it only slightly more "Pending" than an airline announcing their intent without a MOU/LOI. Off the top of my head I can think of more than half a dozen high-profile LOI's that were never firmed up in recent years, for widebodies alone.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 37):
Official releases from either the airlines or manufacturers.

But as I said - these often are either not specific, or don't come at all.

Quoting WestWing (Reply 40):
Nope I was wrong. I didn't read the press release carefully. It said 468 "orders and commitments".

Which makes today's Azerbaijan press release all the more interesting, as Boeing have now dropped the "and commitments" portion of the quote: "The first flight of the 787 is scheduled for 2007, with entry into service in 2008. With 468 orders from 37 customers around the world, the Dreamliner is the most successful new airplane introduction in history."


Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 
All gave some. Some gave all.
 
Hamlet69
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2000 2:45 am

RE: 2007 Orders

Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:43 am

***************************NEW**************************


Big version: Width: 150 Height: 50 File size: 2kb

Pending
Aeroflot - 22 A350*
Royal Saudi Air Force - 2 A330 Tankers
U.A.E. Air Force - 3 A330 Tankers


Totals
Gross: 90
Net: 90
Pending: 248


Big version: Width: 150 Height: 50 File size: 2kb

Firm
UPS - 27 767-300F
Unidentified - 4 777*


Pending
Virgin Blue - 7 777-300ER


Totals
Gross: 49
Net: 49
Pending: 153


Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 
All gave some. Some gave all.
 
RichardPrice
Posts: 4474
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 5:12 am

RE: 2007 Orders

Sat Feb 24, 2007 2:03 am

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 43):
Aeroflot - 22 A350*
...
Unidentified - 4 777*

Out of interest, whats the star for? It usually denotes a footnote to be read someplace  Smile
 
KL808
Posts: 1541
Joined: Thu May 20, 1999 3:49 am

RE: 2007 Orders

Sat Feb 24, 2007 2:17 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 44):
Out of interest, whats the star for?

(I think) The star is there to denote the fact that we don't know exactly the model. ie whether it be a -200ER or 300ER or 200LR etc.

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 43):
Unidentified - 4 777*

Is this not the BA order?

Drew

Edit in ()

[Edited 2007-02-23 18:19:28]
AMS-LAX-MNL
 
Hamlet69
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2000 2:45 am

RE: 2007 Orders

Sat Feb 24, 2007 2:41 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 44):
Out of interest, whats the star for?

As KL808 already stated, I use the star to denote that we do not know the exact model at this time. I used to state the footnote at the bottom of each thread, but to be honest have been a little lazy about it lately  blush 

Quoting KL808 (Reply 45):
Is this not the BA order?

No. According to Boeing's press release, the contract with BA has not been signed yet. Of the announced orders, this could be either TAM or Flyington Freighters. Or, it could be an entirely new order, like last month's UFO. At this point in time, we just don't know for sure, although some reports have stated that TAM has indeed finalized their order, which would make this one TAM's.

Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 
All gave some. Some gave all.
 
RichardPrice
Posts: 4474
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 5:12 am

RE: 2007 Orders

Sat Feb 24, 2007 2:54 am

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 46):
As KL808 already stated, I use the star to denote that we do not know the exact model at this time. I used to state the footnote at the bottom of each thread, but to be honest have been a little lazy about it lately

Heh fair enough then! Thankyou to both of you for clarifying that then.

However, are the Aeroflot A350s really pending? Have we had anything from them to that effect other than vague 'sources' quoted in newspaper articles?
 
osiris30
Posts: 2681
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

RE: 2007 Orders

Sat Feb 24, 2007 3:00 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 47):
Heh fair enough then! Thankyou to both of you for clarifying that then.

However, are the Aeroflot A350s really pending? Have we had anything from them to that effect other than vague 'sources' quoted in newspaper articles?

Richard,

Just read the thread  Wink . Hamlet was initial disinclined to include them, but has after much lobbying for said inclusion.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
RichardPrice
Posts: 4474
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 5:12 am

RE: 2007 Orders

Sat Feb 24, 2007 3:34 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 48):

Just read the thread Wink .

Now that would be *too* easy  Wink Theres too much talking up above, and I have a short attention .... hey lets ride bikes!

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