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Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:09 am
by kaitak
According to an article in the Financial Times - not a paper given to sensationalist speculation - Flybe is close to collapse. The paper is not alone in suggesting problems for Flybe; a thread on PPRUNE about the proposed takeover of BACON suggests that the airline is having serious problems obtaining and retaining crews for its Dash 8s.

What happens if it can't proceed with the BACON takeover? Will BA sue? More than likely; consequences? Collapse?

Obviously as a Jersey resident and with BE being our No1 airline, the collapse of Flybe (formerly Jersey European) would be a big blow, but all of a sudden, there are serious doubts about the airline and its future. I hope these can be addressed quickly. The proposed purchase of BACON (BA Connect - the British Airways regional operation, which Flybe agreed to buy last year) is supposed to close tomorrow; apparently, BACON is losing more than BA said, so even if this does go ahead, it could be an uncomfortable purchase for BE ...

RE: Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:13 am
by sam1987
I'd be surprised... but you never know.

Obviously things will be a bit shaky this summer while they merge, but by winter, they should have a streamlined and profitable operation.

RE: Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:26 am
by Flying-Tiger
Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
is supposed to close tomorrow; apparently, BACON is losing more than BA said, so even if this does go ahead, it could be an uncomfortable purchase for BE ...

Not necessarily so bad for FlyBE, will heavily depend on the contract. Would assume that they have an adjustment clause in the purchase contract, which stipulates that X% of the purchase price have to be paid immediatly, Y% after 1 year depending on the EBIT (or whatever) of BACON´s operation and prbably Z% after year 2, agani depending on the EBIT. If it´s lower than predicted by BA (and written in the contract), BA will get less money. But, as said before, depends on the contract.

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
Flybe is close to collapse

The title of FT´s article does certainly not suggest the FlyBE is close to collaps, but rather says that they flew into a loss. Certainly not positive, but before FlyBE collapses they will go on the market to seek fresh money or sell-and-lease-back some of their planes.

RE: Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:26 am
by OA260
Hmm theres something about this deal thats not seemed normal. Theres been no big advertising (that I have seen) we got an email at work today from BA advising of cancellations of BA connect flights and that we could re route on BA mainline flights instead. It just seems to be a very quiet merger.

I really hope BE do not go down as I have to say I like them , even if they always have tech problems on their AC. 2 out of 6 flights I took last year BHD-GLA and BHD-NCL had tech problems. I still think they are a good airline though .

RE: Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:29 am
by BA787
Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):

Sounds a bit wierd to me.

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
According to an article in the Financial Times - not a paper given to sensationalist speculation

Also not the most reliable paper in the world, we' ve heard shitty stuff from them beforre

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
The paper is not alone in suggesting problems for Flybe; a thread on PPRUNE about the proposed takeover of BACON suggests that the airline is having serious problems obtaining and retaining crews for its Dash 8s.

Though this could be a problem, it isn't overly catastrophic and wouldn't excactly spell the end for the airline. Just might have to hold on expansion.

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
What happens if it can't proceed with the BACON takeover? Will BA sue?

Not likely that BA would sue, and the takeover is too far gone for anything to happen, if anything BA would inject money into flyBe after all, it owns a minority of the company in the takeover.

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
it could be an uncomfortable purchase for BE ...

BE have the business plan to make most of the BA routes work. Part of the reason they had such a nightmare with BACON is that BA just couldn't compete with FR and LS, whereas flyBe do a fantastic job of v signing the more conventional LCCs. BA used aging equipment, whereas BE use state of the art Q400s which are a lot cheaper to run.


I think BE are ok, we have had a few rumours from this supposedly respectable shgeet before, which have mainly turned into BS

RE: Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:45 am
by BMED
I had an email today to say some of my SOU-MAN flight times have changed due to the summer timetable so I guess that the timetable is now sorted.

I have been seeing adverts in magazines and newspapers for pilots a lot as well lately. Are they understaffed?

RE: Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:48 am
by BA787
Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 2):



Quoting BMED (Reply 5):
I have been seeing adverts in magazines and newspapers for pilots a lot as well lately. Are they understaffed

I follow flyBe situation carefully as it is an airline that interests me greatly, and I too have noticed that there is a dsudden rush of crew advertisements.

I think one of the few bits of truth in the wohole article mentioned was how flyBe ar struggling to keep the crews they train. I tyhink many crews see BE as a starting point, before they move on to the more mainstream carriers

RE: Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:42 am
by David_itl
Quoting BMED (Reply 5):
some of my SOU-MAN flight times have changed

Flybe's 4 weekday services and BACon's 5 weekday services have been amalgamated into a 6 week day schedule

MAN depts are at 0700, 0830, 1225, 1705, 1855 & 2010.
SOU depts are at 0655, 0830, 1100, 1530, 1845 & 2020

RE: Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 6:42 pm
by rdwootty
Thats better than BHX it is a whoilesale slaughter of BA routes .In addiiton maybe they cannot cope with the bookings that do not exist due to ridulous fares that BA are showing. NO person would book it.

RE: Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:30 pm
by 7LBAC111
Quoting Rdwootty (Reply 8):
In addiiton maybe they cannot cope with the bookings that do not exist due to ridulous fares that BA are showing. NO person would book it.

You seem to repeatedly miss this point. The fares are deliberatley high, possibly to prevent bookings, as BA may know that BE are planning to axe the routes you mention. To limit the impactr on price sensitive markets, and the subsequent bad press associated with that, BA continue to sell full Y fares ONLY. People buying these tickets are generally not price sensitive.

Check my reply to your post in the FlyBE announcement thread.

7L

RE: Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:49 pm
by cornish
Quoting BA787 (Reply 6):
think one of the few bits of truth in the wohole article mentioned was how flyBe ar struggling to keep the crews they train. I tyhink many crews see BE as a starting point, before they move on to the more mainstream carriers

That is quite natural with low cost short haul carriers and has always been the case when there is a high demand for pilots. Low cost carriers by their very nature tend to pay lower than their legacy rivals. Its natural that pilots start out with the low costs where they can get a foot on the ladder but move on to airlines with the oppportunity to maybe operate larger aircraft to more glamorous destinations for more money. No different to any other job really where people move to biger and better opportunities. I'm sure Ryanair and easyJet are facing exactly the same problem - with the double problem trying to expand rapidly and not lose existing crews at the same time.

RE: Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 2:01 am
by BA787
Quoting Cornish (Reply 10):
I'm sure Ryanair and easyJet are facing exactly the same problem - with the double problem trying to expand rapidly and not lose existing crews at the same time.

I feel BE will have it a bit worse, as FR and U2 have the added glamour of bigger a/c

RE: Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 2:07 am
by cornish
Quoting BA787 (Reply 11):
I feel BE will have it a bit worse, as FR and U2 have the added glamour of bigger a/c

Yes but FR and U2 have 737NGs and A319s meaning the pilots can have a quick transition over to identical types with other carriers as well. I think (not knowing exaclt payscales and conditions) that they face just as much of a problem.

RE: Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 2:23 am
by BA787
Quoting Cornish (Reply 12):



Quoting Cornish (Reply 12):

Good point, heard FRs pay is positively woeful

RE: Flybe - Looking A Little Shaky?

Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:56 am
by rdwootty
My point is that customers who may have now booked BAconnect and then been Flybe passengers will not do so and therefore the load factors will be dire. In addition it is very late in the booking season to announce cancellations of the large number we have recently had and expect people to book with enthusiasm when the thing gets off the ground.If customers cannot see the flight at a price they want to pay they will book from EMA with the others and so will be lost for ever to Flybe.I hope ba are not doing this so that Flybe cannot take over and run the routes we have had for years from Birmingham . eg Berlin, Lyon, and so on. Interestingly only the routes were BA and Flybe compete ahve low fares for future dates??