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comorin
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Joined: Sun May 29, 2005 5:52 am

RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 9:03 am

Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 32):
Philb has already taken him to task above for his (the "expert's") "a plane never takes off into a thunderstorm, no crew or carrier would allow that" comment.



Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 32):
Quoting CV990 (Reply 25):
OPMLguy, don't you think what that pilot said is relevant?

Not particularly.



Quoting CV990 (Reply 33):
Hi!

Well it looks that Cap.Patrick Smith even beeing a pilot is misleading some good people ( like me...)!
Regards

CV990, OPNLguy, LAY OFF Patrick Smith! he's on my RU list as 'Aviateur' Patrick does a fascinating weekly column on Salon.com called "Ask the Pilot" that I read avidly, and so should you.

[Edited 2007-05-08 02:28:55]
 
aviateur
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 9:11 am

Quoting Comorin (Reply 100):
Well it looks that Cap.Patrick Smith even beeing a pilot is misleading some good people ( like me...)!

If you're familiar with my columns, you'll know that I routinely taken the Associated Press to task for its notoriously shoddy, distortion-laden aviation coverage -- particularly in the wake of crashes. "Why don't they call *ME* after a crash?" I've lamented.

Well, this time, after the accident in Cameroon involving a Kenya Airways 737, they did.

And now I know why people are so reluctant to speak with the press.

They embarrassed me. I gave them plenty of intelligent and useful information -- which they promptly stripped from context and placed hapazardly in their article, making me sound like complete idiot.

Indeed I said what the article records. Just not in relation to what the article is talking about at the point where they use my words.

The New York Times, USA Today, The Washington Post, the Boston Globe.... virtually every major newspaper in the world had my name in it today, prompting a slew of hate mail from readers saying, "I can't *believe* you said that.

And that's just it... I *didn't.*


- Patrick Smith
Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
 
OPNLguy
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 9:43 am

Quoting Comorin (Reply 100):
CV990, OPNLguy, LAY OFF Patrick Smith! he's on my RU list as 'Aviateur'

So? I could have the Teletubbies on my RU list, but I'd never suggest that someone else needs to agree with my assessment...

Quoting Comorin (Reply 100):
Patrick does a fascinating weekly column on Slate.com called "Ask the Pilot" that I read avidly, and so should you.

How do you know I don't?

Quoting Aviateur (Reply 101):
And now I know why people are so reluctant to speak with the press.

They embarrassed me. I gave them plenty of intelligent and useful information -- which they promptly stripped from context and placed hapazardly in their article, making me sound like complete idiot.

Indeed I said what the article records. Just not in relation to what the article is talking about at the point where they use my words.

The New York Times, USA Today, The Washington Post, the Boston Globe.... virtually every major newspaper in the world had my name in it today, prompting a slew of hate mail from readers saying, "I can't *believe* you said that.

Add me to that list (who couldn't believe it--not the hate mail senders) and to the other list, the one of folks that didn't readily and properly consider the possibility of the media's mangling what you really said. I'm begining to wonder if "Context 101" is an elective in journalism school, instead of being a requirement...

Any corrections and clarifications (Ha!) will be on page Z-33, after the classifieds, and in 1-pt. type...

[Edited 2007-05-08 02:46:20]
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
777STL
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 9:54 am

Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 71):
When looking at accident rate and relating that to aircraft type, then it is only relevant when looking at at root cause of every single accident. Very, very few accidents can be contributed to flaws in the airliner design. Practically all accidents can be blamed on oprations, maintenance or terrorism.

TWA Flight 800 was caused by a deficiency in design. Then there are incidents that are exasperated by the design of the aircraft, not attributable solely to design but also not attributable solely to circumstances either. A few DC10 instances come to mind in that case.
PHX based
 
Ttailsteve
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 10:33 am

Quoting LH492 (Reply 72):
The 737-200 of Aloha were the roof blew off was not a pilot error

The Aloha incident was not an ACCIDENT. It was an INCIDENT which did not result in the death of ANY pax. (one crew member was reported missing and not found)

This incident should not and does not count offcially as an accident.
 
flyingnanook
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 11:10 am

Quoting Ttailsteve (Reply 104):
The Aloha incident was not an ACCIDENT. It was an INCIDENT which did not result in the death of ANY pax. (one crew member was reported missing and not found)

This most definitely was an accident, according to the NTSB, as the plane was substantially damaged (written off even) and one person died, both conditions which would classify it as an accident.

Quoting 49 CFR PART 830.2:
Aircraft accident means an occurrence associated with the operation
of an aircraft which takes place between the time any person boards the
aircraft with the intention of flight and all such persons have
disembarked, and in which any person suffers death or serious injury, or
in which the aircraft receives substantial damage.
Semper ubi sub ubi.
 
pygmalion
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 11:32 am

737-800 has full manual reversion... in other words full flight control with no hydraulics. Just loss of engines or hydraulics would not cause loss of control in and of itself.

In any accident its always a single chain of improbable events that causes it. It may be that a lot of things strung together caused it. Bad fuel and rain and a non sterile cockpit and something etse... Who knows. Have to wait and see
 
wjcandee
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 12:22 pm

Quoting EMA747 (Reply 68):
I suppose statistically it would be best to compare crashes involving all 737s built after the first A320s as then you are compareing planes of the same age.

NASA has said point blank that fatal mainline US airline accidents are so rare and involve so many elements lining up in order for them to occur that no statistical inference can be drawn as to safety of one kind of airliner over another using frequency of such accidents as data points. So we really should give up this kind of silly comparison.
 
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saleya22r
Posts: 176
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 3:38 pm

Quoting Spacecadet (Reply 90):

The MD 80 flameout near Stockholm Sweden in 1991 occurred in daylight on a clear winter day. They had both time and visibility to fly the plane, to maintain the appropriate speed. The wings cut some treetops simultaneously reducing the speed as the the aircraft landed on a snowy field.
After a flameout in a thunderstorm in total darkness at a pretty low altitude you don't have a chance. We will perhaps later learn if there was a flameout in the first place. I would imagine however that the risk in modern turbofans could be lower as only part of the ingested water will end up in combustion chambers. Does anyone know how often flameouts have occurred, say, in NGs or the Airbuses?
 
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teme82
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 4:13 pm

Hey I got some quick questions.

1. How big thunder storms can be on that area?

2. Are they so big that you can't navigate agoud them?


Thanks  Smile
Flying high and low
 
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saleya22r
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 4:42 pm

Quoting Teme82 (Reply 109):

Teme 82,
It's near the equator where tropical thunderstorms are prevalent. The forecast for Douala showed thunderstorm activity for several days. I suppose they can be severe but local. The METAR for Douala at the time of the accident was shown in thread one, check also:

http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20070505-0

for the weather. I guess it was bad but not that bad..
 
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teme82
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 5:08 pm

Thanks. It just makes me wonder why both engines would flame out, too much water from thunder storm? And why pilots weren't able to restart engines??
Flying high and low
 
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jetfuel
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 5:10 pm

I would be focusing on the crew and what was going on in the cockpit before trying to blame the aircraft/design

Does anybody know the experience on type and TT of the 2 crew?
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
Alessandro
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 5:14 pm

I still wonder about birdstrikes, here´s one accident in Africa with a B737 crashed due to birdstrikes,
http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19880915-0
From New Yorqatar to Califarbia...
 
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jetfuel
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 5:22 pm

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 113):
still wonder about birdstrikes, here´s one accident in Africa with a B737 crashed due to birdstrikes

That 737 just didn't make it make to the runway in time, despite having some altitude.

Quoting Saleya22R (Reply 110):
It's near the equator where tropical thunderstorms are prevalent

Funny, though other equatorial places like Singapore don't have these constant accidents
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
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teme82
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 5:54 pm

Quoting Jetfuel (Reply 114):
Funny, though other equatorial places like Singapore don't have these constant accidents

They got better air traffic handling systems than Cameroon has. And weather services are totally in different level.
I think that this accident is formed from few small bits that occurred at the same time.
Flying high and low
 
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saleya22r
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 5:54 pm

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 113):

Obviously it's a possibility but I was also wondering about the time of the day and weather: Are birds flying around en masse in a thunderstorm in the middle of the night?
You mentioned the bird strike where a 732 was involved. Would a JT8D engine be more sensitive compared with newer turbofans?
 
A390
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 6:04 pm

How about fuel contamination?
Water in the fuel causing both engines to flame out and difficult to restart.
 
KL577
Posts: 547
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 6:39 pm

Quoting Teme82 (Reply 115):
Quoting Jetfuel (Reply 114):
Funny, though other equatorial places like Singapore don't have these constant accidents

They got better air traffic handling systems than Cameroon has. And weather services are totally in different level.
I think that this accident is formed from few small bits that occurred at the same time.

Yes, safe aviation in Singapore being a combination of both advanced electronics and experienced ATC controllers. What still puzzles me is that the plane crashed so close to Douala Airport, while on saturday afternoon they were searching in the forests south of Yaounde hundreds of kilometers away. What was the controller on duty doing that particular moment? Why didn't he know the approximate position of the aircraft? I suppose there is no radar in DLA, but still they should have followed the aircraft through frequent radio-contact, especially with hazardous weather around.
 
antskip
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 7:50 pm

The Kenya Daily Nation has reported that the pilot's last words received by the control tower were "We are in trouble", a few moments before the crash, within sight of the airport.
http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynati...ry.asp?category_id=1&newsid=97644.

According to the East African Standard, Kenya has asked for the black box (located in the tail) to be examined in "neutral" Canada, rather than in Boeing territory (USA) or Airbus territory (Europe). Also, Canada will provide native French as well as English, to match the two most interested parties, Cameroon (French) and Kenya (English). The voice recorder (located in the cockpit) has not yet been recovered.
http://www.eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=1143968322
 
gffgold
Posts: 184
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 8:23 pm

Quoting KL577 (Reply 118):
What still puzzles me is that the plane crashed so close to Douala Airport, while on saturday afternoon they were searching in the forests south of Yaounde hundreds of kilometers away.

Confusion over time and sequence of events? Or has anyone considered the possibility that the plane may have been in the air for longer than we're assuming here and was attempting a RTB?
 
antskip
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 9:13 pm

Quoting GFFgold (Reply 120):
Confusion over time and sequence of events? Or has anyone considered the possibility that the plane may have been in the air for longer than we're assuming here and was attempting a RTB?

The control tower heard the pilots saying they were in trouble a few minutes after takeoff, and one would assume it was soon after that the plane went down in the swamp, on the flight path - not fly down to the south of the country and then fly back to almost the airfield and then crash...the pilot silent all the while...but impossible, no. I think the Cameroon authorities were deceived by firstly, a report of a transmitter far south of the airfield, and later incorrect reports from west of the Douala airport. They were looking all the time in the wrong places - it probably was only in the air for a few moments - within "sight" of the airport, yet with no sustained fire and little debris, plus the cover of swamp and forest and a storm, and only scattered signs of where it went down, visible only from a short distance away. Without much height, there was not enough time for the pilot to say anything further after "We are in trouble".
 
wjcandee
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 9:41 pm

Quoting Antskip (Reply 119):
Kenya has asked for the black box (located in the tail) to be examined in "neutral" Canada, rather than in Boeing territory (USA) or Airbus territory (Europe).

Idiots. The NTSB is the gold standard of accident investigative agencies. If true, these people should be embarassed, apparently used to the kind of tinhorn political influence from which the NTSB is mercifully free. Hence our great safety record in the US.
 
ltbewr
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 10:18 pm

At least with the recovery of the 'black box', we may see some possible answers soon. Since this was such a new aircraft, I would assume it has the ability to record a huge amount of info from a large number of info points, thus helping considerably to come closer to a possible reason for this accident. Let us hope that they can find the CVR soon, that it is in good shape and can ananlyize it too. That authorities are sending the box to Canada is a good move and I am quite sure they have thoroughly competent people to look at it, they can offer info in French with minimal problems or delays and without any possible interference from Boeing (I doubt they would do that anyway).
Of course, the recovery of the bodies or unfortunately probably body parts, as well as what is left of the a/c will take a long time and delay the investigation and of the mourning of the losses of the victims families and friends.
 
wjcandee
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 10:18 pm

Well, the NTSB *is* the gold standard. Regardless, however, to suggest that it cannot be fair because Boeing is based here is lunacy. And to suggest that the Europeans cannot be fair because of Airbus, particularly when not investigating an Airbus accident, is also insane. And that the Canadians are somehow more "neutral"... You get the point.

NTSB investigates everything from trucking accidents to train accidents to bus accidents to waterway accidents. To suggest that they are somehow in Boeing's pocket is stupidly insulting, and turns reality on its head.

You wanta insult me some more for no good reason? PM me. And see how you talk to me then.
 
787kq
Posts: 379
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 10:26 pm

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 127):
Well, the NTSB *is* the gold standard. Regardless, however, to suggest that it cannot be fair because Boeing is based here is lunacy. And to suggest that the Europeans cannot be fair because of Airbus, particularly when not investigating an Airbus accident, is also insane. And that the Canadians are somehow more "neutral"... You get the point.

Blah, blah, blah. The argument about a neutral party, in this instance, the Canadians is one any good attorney would make. We all have our biases, even those in the US Supreme Court. Unless the Canadians lack the competence to carry out the work, using the Canadians is a perfectly rational position.
 
Marquis
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 10:31 pm

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 127):
Well, the NTSB *is* the gold standard.

See my earlier post.

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 127):
Regardless, however, to suggest that it cannot be fair because Boeing is based here is lunacy. And to suggest that the Europeans cannot be fair because of Airbus, particularly when not investigating an Airbus accident, is also insane. And that the Canadians are somehow more "neutral"... You get the point.

I have never doubted, that the attitude of the Kenyan authorities towards the European and US accident investigative agencies is somewhat strange and I still second that.

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 127):
NTSB investigates everything from trucking accidents to train accidents to bus accidents to waterway accidents. To suggest that they are somehow in Boeing's pocket is stupidly insulting, and turns reality on its head.

Of course it still stupid to say they are influenced by Boeing but the amount of investigations still doesn't prove them to be top notch among accident investigative agencies throughout the world.

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 127):
You wanta insult me some more for no good reason? PM me. And see how you talk to me then.

It was not meant as an insult, but I simply can't stand people with this "{insert country here} is the hub of the world" attitude you have shown in reply #122.
Riding the radials...
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 10:34 pm

I'm curious...surely you're not suggestion that the Canadian authorities will conduct a substandard investigation compared to the Americans, are you?

Them's big words, amigo. It would be nice to have some info to back them up. The accident didn't happen in the usa. I imagine it's the home country's choice to whom they wish to have the evidence sent for analysis.

I'm pretty sure you won't find the NTSB badmouthing the Transport Canada investigators.
What the...?
 
wjcandee
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 10:48 pm

The only people who are being badmouthed -- besides me, for no reason -- are the European and American investigative agencies, who are, in essence, being accused of potentially tampering with the output of the CVR and FDR, as it is these things that they are being not asked to decode because Boeing is in the US and Airbus is in Europe. As sure as I am that the NTSB wouldn't badmouth the Canadians, I am also sure that the Canadians would be embarrassed to be chosen because of supposed unreliability or unfairness of the NTSB. We're not talking about the FAA, which is like the Ministry of Transport in most countries (and which, in most countries, both regulates and investigates). We are talking about the NTSB, which is a wholly-independent body that gets to call it as it sees it.

What's truly moronic here is that we're not even talking about potential bias in the *report* as to cause; we're talking about accusations of bias in the *decoding* of the *recorders*. Now that is really beyond the pale, and reflects a mindset that should embarrass those who are making the accusation.
 
ChinaClipper40
Posts: 202
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:23 am

RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 11:04 pm

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 122):
Idiots. The NTSB is the gold standard of accident investigative agencies. If true, these people should be embarassed, apparently used to the kind of tinhorn political influence from which the NTSB is mercifully free. Hence our great safety record in the US

Oh, come on. You make it sound as if Canada were a third-world country. In fact, the Transportation Safety Board of Canada is one of the finest air accident investigation agencies in the world. Just like the U.S. NTSB, the Canadian TSB is an independent federal agency, free from "tinhorn" (your word) political or corporate influence. When the TSB investigates an accident, no other government entity (except the Canadian Department of National Defense and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police) may investigate for the purpose of determining causes and contributing factors to an air accident. That is identical to the division of authority in the U.S. between the NTSB, the Department of Defence, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation. And the TSB has some of the best accident investigation personnel in the world, plus it uses state-of-the-art accident investigation equipment and techniques. Just look at the superb job the TSB did with the investigation of the crash of Swissair flight 111. And they don't stint on time or money. They spent 4 years and $60 million on the investigation of Swissair 111. And it was NOT an easy investigation. The FDR and CVR had both stopped recording 6 minutes before impact. Plus, the debris had to be lifted - piece by piece - from the ocean floor under horrid underwater conditions, and then carefully reconstructed in the purpose-built investigation hangar at the Canadian Air Force Base at Shearwater, Nova Scotia. Over 350 investigators worked on the accident reconstruction at various stages. When the under-water diving and dredging ended, they had retrieved more than 2 million pieces of debris and recovered 98% of the aircraft. That's BETTER than the 95% of TWA flight 800 that the NTSB was able to salvage and raise to the surface. I doubt that there was ever a more meticulous air accident investigation and reconstruction in history. Plus, the fact that the Canadian TSB is filled with personnel fluent in French will surely aid the investigation in its early stages. Why the gratuitous bashing of a superb air accident investigation agency? If anyone should be "embarrassed," it's you. Your statement is ill-informed, jingoistic, and demeaning to what is arguably one of the finest air accident investigation agencies in the entire world.

ChinaClipper40
 
wjcandee
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 11:20 pm

Quoting ChinaClipper40 (Reply 132):
Why the gratuitous bashing of a superb air accident investigation agency? If anyone should be "embarrassed," it's you. Your statement is ill-informed, jingoistic, and demeaning to what is arguably one of the finest air accident investigation agencies in the entire world.

Dude. No matter how good the Canadian group is, they are no more free from influence than the NTSB. And I am sure that they would say so. What I object to is the injection of politics into the process, and to imply that the Canadians are less biased is bunk. That's the sole point that I was making. I'd tell you what to do with your offensive comments aimed at me, but that would probably violate the TOS, as well as be something that you couldn't physically do.

[Edited 2007-05-08 16:21:50]
 
Gr8Circle
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 11:26 pm

Something tells me this thread is going to be locked very soon.... Big grin
 
irobertson
Posts: 409
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2006 11:35 am

RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 11:44 pm

Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 71):

If we exclude the "stoneage 737s" - the -100 and -200 which have been banned from European skies (due to noise) and have practically disappeared from 1st world operations, then the numbers and age profiles are indeed almost identical.

European Air Charter still flies the -200 in Europe. They keep cropping up on the photo database these days still painted in their former livery from when they were down under with OzJet, along with the occasional one in their white and pink EAL livery.

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 122):
Idiots. The NTSB is the gold standard of accident investigative agencies


Edited because the points were already made above...

[Edited 2007-05-08 16:49:43]
 
wjcandee
Posts: 10287
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 11:49 pm

Quoting Irobertson (Reply 135):
the angry and grieving families around Africa might feel better by having a neutral nation do the job and provide answers they can be sure won't be skewed to protect Boeing

The US *is* a "neutral nation" as pertains to the CVR and FDR decoding.
They *can* be sure that the answers won't be skewed to protect Boeing.
This is a dangerous, dangerous slippery slope, and it's exactly what I am objecting to. It is wrong, wrong, wrong for these countries to suggest that one is more "neutral" than the other. If they want to use Canada for some rational reason, fine. But the reason given should be loudly objected to by any rational student of accident investigation anywhere, as well as anyone interested in air safety.
 
irobertson
Posts: 409
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Tue May 08, 2007 11:55 pm

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 136):

Look, I agree with a lot of your points. Its just how you worded your initial post, calling the Kenyans idiots for not choosing the "gold standard" NTSB made the TSB in Canada sound somehow inferior to the NTSB and I think that really isn't the case. I will trust either one and I'm somewhat proud that my country will have a chance to investigate this tragedy. But you're right about how the reasoning shouldn't be for bias. In a perfect world, no one would suspect. But again, if this quells the fears of anyone upset and worried about not finding out the truth, if changing the investigating country to Canada will help, why not?
 
MEA-707
Posts: 3838
Joined: Mon Nov 15, 1999 4:51 am

RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 12:54 am

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 133):
No matter how good the Canadian group is, they are no more free from influence than the NTSB. And I am sure that they would say so.

I think you miss the point that even WHILE the NTSB is probably free from influence, they want to avoid the controversy which will no doubt start in Africa IF the NTSB will do the investigation.
After Egyptairs 767 crash, the Egyptians said it was a US complot to hide away the 767 was at fault, after the RAM ATR suicide, Moroccans all said it was a French cover up of their faulty aircraft etc. This sort of bullshit is only avoided if a 'neutral' party is chosen, just because the Kenya and Cameroon media and people might not understand and accept a NTSB report especially if the 737 is not to blame but pilots, ATC etc are.
nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
 
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OA260
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 12:58 am

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/africa/05/07/kenya.plane.ap/index.html

Story Highlights• NEW: One of plane's two black boxes had been found, Cameroonian official says
NEW: Debris is spread over small area
NEW: 20 bodies have been recovered; there were no survivors, a local official says
NEW: Investigators are focusing on possibility jet lost power in both engines

If the jet lost power in both engines what would make it nose dive??? Rudder problems also?? Im confused.
 
katekebo
Posts: 681
Joined: Sat Apr 14, 2001 12:02 am

RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 1:02 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 139):
If the jet lost power in both engines what would make it nose dive???

gravity?

Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 138):
I think you miss the point that even WHILE the NTSB is probably free from influence, they want to avoid the controversy which will no doubt start in Africa IF the NTSB will do the investigation.
After Egyptairs 767 crash, the Egyptians said it was a US complot to hide away the 767 was at fault, after the RAM ATR suicide, Moroccans all said it was a French cover up of their faulty aircraft etc. This sort of bullshit is only avoided if a 'neutral' party is chosen, just because the Kenya and Cameroon media and people might not understand and accept a NTSB report especially if the 737 is not to blame but pilots, ATC etc are

Very correct observation. Actually it's a smart move from Kenyan authorities to avoid politics getting involved.
 
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litz
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 1:12 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 139):
If the jet lost power in both engines what would make it nose dive??? Rudder problems also?? Im confused.

I seriously doubt rudder problems ... if it truly lost power, it probably stalled during the attempt to glide back to the field.

(IMHO, mind you ... do not take as gospel)

- litz
 
mustang304
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 1:19 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 139):
If the jet lost power in both engines what would make it nose dive??? Rudder problems also?? Im confused.

It could happen with a single engine failure, where the aircraft got below Vmc--an airspeed too slow to maintain directional control with rudder and aileron. I assume Vmc applies to 737s, but since I'm not familiar with the 737s, maybe someone else can chime in with more details w/r/t to single engine operation.

An example I heard about was the DC10 that lost an engine in Chicago. It rolled over, and went straight down as the airspeed slowed below Vmc. Had that aircraft (the DC-10) kept it's airspeed up, it may have been able to avoid its fate.
 
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OA260
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 1:34 am

Quoting Litz (Reply 141):
I seriously doubt rudder problems ... if it truly lost power, it probably stalled during the attempt to glide back to the field.



Quoting Mustang304 (Reply 142):
An example I heard about was the DC10 that lost an engine in Chicago. It rolled over, and went straight down as the airspeed slowed below Vmc. Had that aircraft (the DC-10) kept it's airspeed up, it may have been able to avoid its fate.

Thanks from what I read I thought they meant it literally nose dived which I have seen before on TV when the rudders lock in a certain position and have this effect, I just couldnt figure out the two happening immediately. If the two engines did go it would surely take some time to nose dive or am I wrong??
 
OPNLguy
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 1:37 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 139):
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/africa/05/07/kenya.plane.ap/index.html

Story Highlights%u2022 NEW: One of plane's two black boxes had been found, Cameroonian official says
%u2022 NEW: Debris is spread over small area
%u2022 NEW: 20 bodies have been recovered; there were no survivors, a local official says
%u2022 NEW: Investigators are focusing on possibility jet lost power in both engines

Thanks for getting the thread back on-topic---I was begining to think that every aircraft accident in the last 50 years was going to be mentioned...  Wink

A fairly decent article here, but then again, SEA is an aviation town...  Wink

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/314732_crash08.html

If the debris is indeed spread over a small area, that would suggest that the aircraft didn't suffer an inflight break-up (think GOL 738, with multiple wreckage sites).

I haven't seen which of the two recorders (CVR or DFDR) had been recovered, but if it's the DFDR, the article linked above mentions that it's one of the latest models that records nearly 1,000 different flight parameters. As such, once it's found and read-out, answers to what happened might be forthcoming pretty quickly.

If the aircraft "injected" itself into the swamp in the same way Valujet 592 did in the Everglades, the recovery process is going to be a long and difficult process, especially if local authorities don't have the same resources the folks attending to the Valujet accident did.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
katekebo
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 1:37 am

Quoting Mustang304 (Reply 142):
An example I heard about was the DC10 that lost an engine in Chicago. It rolled over, and went straight down as the airspeed slowed below Vmc. Had that aircraft (the DC-10) kept it's airspeed up, it may have been able to avoid its fate.

The reason for the AA DC-10 crash in Chicago was that, when the engine broke off, it severed hydraulic lines to the leading edge slats, and the slats retracted on one side, while they remained deployed on the other. The pilots were not aware about this issue and they reduced speed as per the flight manual, to the point where the ailerons did not have enoguh effect to compensate for the lift imbalance. Had they known that the hydraulic lines were severed, they would have maintained airspeed and/or retracted the slats on the other wing and the accident could have been prevented.
 
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zeke
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 2:24 am

Quoting Ttailsteve (Reply 104):

The Aloha incident was not an ACCIDENT. It was an INCIDENT which did not result in the death of ANY pax. (one crew member was reported missing and not found)

This incident should not and does not count officially as an accident.

Incorrect, it was an accident.

Quote:
ICAO definitions for aircraft accidents and serious incidents

Accident. An occurrence associated with the operation of an aircraft which takes place between the time any person boards the aircraft with the intention of flight until such time as all such persons have disembarked, in which:

a) a person is fatally or seriously injured as a result of:

being in the aircraft, or
direct contact with any part of the aircraft, including parts which have become detached from the aircraft, or
direct exposure to jet blast,
except when the injuries are from natural causes, self-inflicted or inflicted by other persons, or when the injuries are to stowaways hiding outside the areas normally available to the passengers and crew; or

b) the aircraft sustains damage or structural failure which:

adversely affects the structural strength, performance or flight characteristics of the aircraft, and
would normally require major repair or replacement of the affected component,


except for engine failure or damage, when the damage is limited to the engine, its cowlings or accessories; or for damage limited to propellers, wing tips, antennas, tires, brakes, fairings, small dents or puncture holes in the aircraft skin; or

c) the aircraft is missing or is completely inaccessible.

Note 1. For statistical uniformity only, an injury resulting in death within thirty days of the date of the accident is classified as a fatal injury by ICAO.

Note 2. An aircraft is considered to be missing when the official search has been terminated and the wreckage has not been located.

Serious incident. An incident involving circumstances indicating that an accident nearly occurred.

Note 1. The difference between an accident and a serious incident lies only in the result.

Note 2. ICAO examples of serious incidents can be found in Attachment B.
Attachment B
List of examples of serious incidents

The incidents listed are typical examples of incidents that are likely to be serious incidents. The list is not exhaustive and only serves as guidance to the definition of serious incident.

* Near collisions requiring an avoidance manoeuvre to avoid a collision or an unsafe situation or when an avoidance action would have been appropriate.
* Controlled flight into terrain only marginally avoided.
* Aborted take-offs on a closed or engaged runway.
* Take-offs from a closed or engaged runway with marginal separation from obstacle(s).
* Landings or attempted landings on a closed or engaged runway.
* Gross failures to achieve predicted performance during take-off or initial climb.
* Fires and smoke in the passenger compartment, in cargo compartments or engine fires, even though such fires were extinguished by the use of extinguishing agents.
* Events requiring the emergency use of oxygen by the flight crew.
* Aircraft structural failures or engine disintegrations not classified as an accident.
* Multiple malfunctions of one or more aircraft systems seriously affecting the operation of the aircraft.
* Flight crew incapacitation in flight.
* Fuel quantity requiring the declaration of an emergency by the pilot.
* Take-off or landing incidents. Incidents such as undershooting, overrunning or running off the side of runways.
* System failures, weather phenomena, operations outside the approved flight envelope or other occurrences which could have caused difficulties controlling the aircraft.
* Failures of more than one system in a redundancy system mandatory for flight guidance and navigation.



Quoting OA260 (Reply 139):
If the jet lost power in both engines what would make it nose dive???

The engine problem that caused this was supposed to have been fixed, this aircraft had the latest standard CFM-56.

http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19880524-0
http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20020116-0
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
philb
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 2:26 am

Why is there a sizable majority here who have latched onto "power loss"?

Whilst the engines will obviously be one of the first items to be checked to see if they were developing power commensurate with the throttle settings (if the throttles are found) and the black boxes will be checked for speed/rste of climb, the state this aircraft is now in and the conditions in which it crashed will have the investigators focusing sharply on catastrophic airframe failure due to possible microburst or windshear activity.

The speed of some of the air currents in certain CB clouds can easily tear a large aircraft apart.

For a very interesting and detailed up to date assessment of thunderstorms http://www.caem.wmo.int/_pdf/thunder...s/thunderstorms_01_description.pdf
makes interesting reading
 
OPNLguy
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 2:49 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 146):
The engine problem that caused this was supposed to have been fixed, this aircraft had the latest standard CFM-56.

http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19880524-0
http://aviation-safety.net/database/...116-0

After TACA, one of the changes was that the spinner/bullet on the engine was changed from the original > shape to more of a ) shape, since the former was letting too much water into the engine core. The new ) shape would serve to force more water into the bypass section of the engine. There were some other changes under the cowl, and IIRC, un-modified aircraft had to maintain a minimum 55% N-1 in certain precip conditions. The mods called for in the AD became the standard design for CFM engines on the classic/NG fleets, and aircraft have been coming off the line like that for nearly 20 years now.

All that said, it's obviously still possible to fly an aircraft into an atmospheric environment where the amount of precip can overwhelm the engine. Whether (no pun intended) that's a factor in the Kenya case remains to be seen, but as I mentioned earlier, a 1,000-parameter DFDR should provide some definitive answers.

I'm not at work to check, but does anyone know if, on the NG series, the DFDR captures any of the weather imagery from the display units?

[Edited 2007-05-08 19:52:10]
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
Electech6299
Posts: 606
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:13 am

RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 4:36 am

Quoting Philb (Reply 147):
if they were developing power commensurate with the throttle settings (if the throttles are found)

I would suspect that the advanced DFDR will have separate parameters for throttle position and throttle input to compare with the various engine performance parameters. (That is, of course, if the DFDR is properly installed and working, unlike the mismatched DFDR in the Garuda 734 accident in Java.) I will be immensely impressed if the cockpit components are recovered in a condition useful to investigators.

One question I have, regarding the CVR: Are all 737NGs equipped with digital recorders, or were some manufacured with tape? If either could have been used, does anyone know (based on service history) what this aircraft was equipped with? (Originally, at least). Are the various CVRs interchangeable- could the original have been replaced with an older tape-based one by the airline during mx or major check?

(Mostly asking out of curiosity....I suppose this is only relevant if they are able to lift the nose out of the swamp and recover the CVR)

And, just for my crack at this....  Wink

Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 144):
I was begining to think that every aircraft accident in the last 50 years was going to be mentioned...

I have been thinking more and more how this resembles the Adam Air PK-KKW crash on 1 Jan 07 (possibly related to bad weather, no significant communication, no immediate clues, no radar coverage, limited recovery resources)

Only this time the crash site and at least one black box have been located....
Send not to know for whom the bell tolls...it tolls for thee
 
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OA260
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RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 4:38 am

They have also not ruled out an explosion but I guess at this stage anything is possible. I guess we will know more once the Black box is examined. It is however very worrying for all parties in the meantime to what could have gone wrong with a 6 month old AC and if it was mechanical or weather related.

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exer...9B-400D-44CE-BA98-68C8D7555582.htm
 
OPNLguy
Posts: 11191
Joined: Tue Jun 15, 1999 11:29 am

RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 5:38 am

Quoting Electech6299 (Reply 146):
if they are able to lift the nose out of the swamp and recover the CVR

Even though the CVR's cockpit area microphone is inside the cockpit, the CVR itself is in the tail end of the aircraft not the nose...

Quoting Electech6299 (Reply 146):
I have been thinking more and more how this resembles the Adam Air PK-KKW crash on 1 Jan 07 (possibly related to bad weather, no significant communication, no immediate clues, no radar coverage, limited recovery resources)

In general terms, and post-accident, perhaps. The other flight disappeared while at cruising altitude, did it not? (I've forgotten..)
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
Electech6299
Posts: 606
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 11:13 am

RE: Kenya Airways 737-800 Lost PT. 2

Wed May 09, 2007 5:56 am

Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 148):
The other flight disappeared while at cruising altitude, did it not? (I've forgotten..)

Yes indeed...I was thinking about that after posting.

edit: "disappeared"? Not from radar- it flew off radar at cruising altitude and the debris field suggests it crashed shortly thereafter. You are correct that whatever triggered the accident occurred at cruising altitude, not during climbout.

A few other dissimilar items as well: Kenya 738, Adam 734. KKW landed in the ocean (most likely, or broke up midflight), not a swamp. No distress call was made from the Adam Air flight, but this one at least acknowledged trouble before losing contact.

I was just thinking about the known issues- most notably, severe weather and limited wx support from the ground station. (The Adam Air wx radar was inop, tho- hopefully Kenya didn't repeat that error.)

Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 148):
Even though the CVR's cockpit area microphone is inside the cockpit, the CVR itself is in the tail end of the aircraft not the nose...

Thanks for the correction. So then are both boxes in the tail? I thought the DFDR was in the tail and the CVR was in the forward section- but maybe that's not correct? Or is the location not the same among all types?

edit: "disappeared"

[Edited 2007-05-08 23:03:12]
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