|Quoting Zeke (Reply 221):|
The information you posted is very basic, a gust front associated with a thunderstorm would have shown up on a metar over that period of time, I have flown about the tropics for many years, I am well versed with the life cycle of a tropical thunderstorm.
Obvoiusly you are far more experienced than the Australian Govt Dept of Meteorology - or didn't you bother to download and read the PDF? I'm sure they will be delighted to have their work dismissed as "very basic".
Perhaps you might be interested in the situation at New Orleans on July 9 1982 when a Pan American 727 took off, made only 95 feet and crashed 12,000 feet from the start of its take off run.
At taxi clearance, with active storm cells in the area, the wind for Runway 10 was 240 at 2 knots. During taxi it became 040 at 8 knots. Four minutes later, with the 727 in the queue, it was 060 at 15 knots, gusting 25 knots with windshear alert, northeast airfield quadrant 330 degrees 10 knots, northwest quadrant 130 at 3 knots.
A minute later the runway wind was given as 070 degrees 17 knots, peak gust 23 knots, low level windshear alert for all quadrants.
A 767 landing immediately before the 727 lined up reported a 10 knot widshear at 100 feet on finals. The 727 then took off and, at 95 feet, started descending and struck trees 700 metres beyon the end of the runway, then hit and destroyed houses.
Immediately before the 727 took off, a Republic DC9 took off and during the roll met heavy rain and windshear. Its Vr had been calculated as 132 knots, V2
at 140 knots but the captain rotated at 121 knots, the stick shaker briefly vibrated but the aircraft started to climb and, as they passed the end of the runway, the airspeed increased from 132 knots to 160 knots "in an instant".
As the 727 began to roll the rain was falling at 25mm per hour but, at the far end of the runway it was in excess of 50mm per hour..
During the period of the accident, and contrary to the actual readings, the airport's recording anenometer showed an average wind of 16 knots but, two seconds after the 727 struck the trees, the windshear alert equipment showed 080 degrees 15 knots at the centre of the runway and 310 degrees at 6 knots at the end beyond which the 727 crashed.
Meteorological studies since have concluded that the downdraught associated with the microburst that generated the windshear would have been in excess of 600 feet per minute (10 feet per second). Combined with the windshear, this was a fatal combination for an aircraft the size of the 727, using full take off power and with the air conditioning packs off to gain maximum thrust from the outboard engines.
The point of all of this is to highlight the fact that, even in 1982, New Orleans had far better weather detection equipment than Douala now has and yet a jet, operated by a well managed company, flown by a very experienced crew, crashed. Given the similarity in weather, the fact that Douala has poor equipment and that there was similar thunderstorm activity and how close to the airport the aircraft crashed, the effect of thunderstorms on airframes, dismissed by many on this and the previous thread, will not be being taken lightly by the investigation.