FreequentFlier
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Where Will WN Go Next?

Wed May 30, 2007 11:34 am

In light of the critical comments by Wall Street recent about WN's recent new cities and their associated struggles in them, where do you think WN will go next? MSP? CVG? ATL? LGA? (if they could get slots) Or do you think they'll focus on the cities they currently serve and try to grow in them over time? They sure have an awful lot of deliveries coming up though...
 
atlaaron
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Wed May 30, 2007 11:46 am

I think the 4 mentioned are all solid candidates and might add CLT to the list.

I would like to be there in ATL when that blue and red wingletted little "fly" irritates King Kong.
 
Boston92
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Wed May 30, 2007 12:34 pm

MSP seems like a very good candidate...
 
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northwestEWR
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Wed May 30, 2007 12:39 pm

Quoting Boston92 (Reply 2):
MSP seems like a very good candidate...

It would certainly provide a great show !
I have a feeling it would be the blood bath of the century !!!!
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727LOVER
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 12:47 am

Quoting FreequentFlier (Thread starter):
In light of the critical comments by Wall Street recent about WN's recent new cities and their associated struggles in them

What comments? Do you have a link? I haven't heard about this.  no 
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
LawnDart
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 12:50 am

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 4):
What comments? Do you have a link? I haven't heard about this.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070529/south...rlines_ahead_of_the_bell.html?.v=1
 
Type-Rated
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 12:52 am

Personally, I'd like to see them in MSP too. MSP has been courting WN for years now.
"Big Red" wouldn't be happy. I think MSP fits the profile for the "Southwest Effect" to occur.
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 1:16 am

Quoting Bob Mcadoo:
Analyst Bob McAdoo said Southwest loses money in most of its markets and is hurting itself by continuing to add flights to some of those markets. He lowered his rating to "Underweight" from "Overweight" and reduced his price target to $16 per share from $22.
"Until Southwest takes actions to make the last four year's new flights profitable, or exits some of these markets, or substantially slows the growth, we see little hope that the shares will do other than they have over the past four years," he said. The stock is down 9 percent from its May 28, 2003 price.
McAdoo said Southwest has struggled to increase its profit over the last four years even though it keeps its costs down.

WN is now at a critical crossroads in its business model and growth and where it can grow. WN in my estimation should now focus on growing in the markets they are now in, and start looking at international flights to Mexico, Canada and the Caribbean. Yes, I think that getting slots into LGA and DCA are important, as well as new markets untouched such as ATL, CVG, MSP and CLT somehow need to be tapped, but additionally how does WN grow in the markets they are already in? I don't have a link, but analyst Michael Boyd has likewise indicated that his research all points to the seating method of WN as being "an inhibitor to additional growth in markets already served." We've discussed countless times on how the continued use of the "Cattle-Call" in numerous threads, and WN does have the ability with their new computer system to make such a transition in the future according to CEO Gary Kelly. But given the culture of many WN Frequent Flyers who love the A-B-C "Cattle-Call" I expect a slow phase out over time as more people select their seat as they make a reservation on the southwest.com site, and another "pre-boarding" group before A-B-C will come into effect over the next year or two. The seating will just slowly change over time and when they do start offering seat pre-selection at the time of fare purchase, I'm certain based on the reputation of WN, their sales will improve considerably in places they are in. Despite what many people say, A-B-C isn't a critical element to their much vaunted a/c turn-around time, think about baggage and how WN employees their own personnel rather than a third party such as a Menzies as AS does. This more than anything is what allows WN to put one of their 737s in the air within 30 minutes or less in some instances. As for where WN serves, look at some of the airports they are now in and ask yourself if they would have served them 6-7 years ago? PHL, SFO, DEN, IAD? Quite obviously WN can and will go to Mexico, Canada and the Caribbean, and the paradigm shift will continue in such a direction. It isn't now a matter of "IF" but rather "WHEN" WN offers trans-border service to the adjoining countries and regions of the U.S.
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Ih8b6
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 1:28 am

CVG will never work as long as there is a Delta focus city there. (Sorry, I can no longer consider it a hub: 10 years ago 220+ flights a day; now: 80 or so flights a day, if that.....talking of mainline only).

No need for the arguement about CVG being the most expensive airport in the country and DL gouging all the travlers, because the argument has been made for 15 years and it will never, ever end.

2 or 3 flights a day on WN to wherever vs. 6 or 7 flights a day on Delta/Delta Connection to the same place are no match for a 'discount carrier'. WN comes in, DL lowers fares in the appropriate markets and the CVG residents fly DL due to the more convienient schedule, skymiles, etc...then WN pulls out, DL raises fares and everyone bitches about DL. Low fare carriers have tried CVG time and time again (the 'old' Airtran, Vanguard, Sunair), and the only people that fly them are the people that truly hate Delta, not just the people looking for lower fares. The people looking for lower fares just buy the cheaper fare on DL while it lasts and then the Enquirer (the daily CVG tabloid) goes back to publishing hate speech about Delta.

I would love to see WN in CVG so I can get my parents to Florida for less than $400 but it won't happen.

...

[Edited 2007-05-30 18:30:05]
Over-moderation sucks
 
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STT757
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 1:33 am

The obvious missing links in WN's network are New York City area (EWR, JFK, LGA), Atlanta, Miami, Washington Reagan National, Minneapolis, Charlotte. Those are the biggest markets currently lacking WN service, there's also Boston.

IMHO.. WN should consider buying US Airways, and create three companies under WN.

1.) Low cost International carrier (Trans-Atlantic, Caribbean, Mexico, Latin America, Hawaii), eventually flying from Philadelphia, Baltimore, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Oakland, Los Angeles.
2.) A Regional Affiliate, supporting "hubs" at Philadelphia, Baltimore, Charlotte, Houston Hobby, Phoenix, Los Angeles.
3.) Domestic carrier (WN), all domestic flying under WN's model.
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Boeing7E7
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 1:35 am

I vote for ATL. Put a spankin on AirTran.
 
InTheSky74
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 1:37 am

I think that would be a mess with all of the different types of aircraft they have.

In regards to LGA, I don't think they have "slots" anymore. All they need to do is take over the gate & operations from ATA and they could easily start a bunch of flights out of LGA.
 
mtnwest1979
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 1:41 am

Well, I had a dream last night WN was in ANC, so hopefully that will come to fruition!  Smile

I would like to see MSP as well. Don't think CLT has enough space, CVG would be down the list, I believe, and as for ATL, I think it is too dominated by DL fans/f fs/etc, and FL has a nice operation there as well.

I would somewhat like to see lesser service to more locations, like only 2-5 flts a day to 'lesser' locations (like Sioux Falls, Cedar Rapids, Eugene, Evansville, etc.). But employee utilization would be a large waste, as it stands now.
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chrisnh
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 1:53 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 9):
Those are the biggest markets currently lacking WN service, there's also Boston.

Well, the 'Boston' model doesn't really seem to have been duplicated since. Back in the 1990s, and with some fanfare, WN approached the Boston market like two pieces of bread in a sandwich: MHT to the north and PVD to the south. The strategy has worked well enough, it seems, although the carrier since then has marched right into the big-city airports like DEN, SFO, PHL, and so on. No 'sandwich strategy' for them. But speaking only for Manchester, Southwest has done very, very well up here. The airline has been welcomed with open arms, is now (by a considerable margin) the largest carrier here, and enjoys very high loads...although I do wonder whether there is TOO much lift in the MHT-PHL and MHT-BWI markets. I guess the smart move is to believe that Southwest knows what they're doing and the supply is relative to demand. Indeed, not every MHT-BWI or MHT-PHL flight goes out 137/137, but across the spectrum the routes are performing very well from all indications an 'armchair observer' like me can see.

Chris in NH
 
787EWR
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 2:02 am

[quote=STT757,reply=9]The obvious missing links in WN's network are New York City area (EWR, JFK, LGA), Atlanta, Miami, Washington Reagan National, Minneapolis, Charlotte. Those are the biggest markets currently lacking WN service, there's also Boston.


LGA is slot restricted and even on a clear day, has taxi delays. I don't think WN would make money on it.
JFK has Jetblue firmly in place, so I don't see a substantial opportunity there.
EWR would be a good choice as there are gates available. The only problem is going to be the giant in Terminal C. I don't think they can match WN's price structure, but the hub is profitable, so it would be quite a battle. Newark does, however, experience significant delays due to traffic both on the ground and in the air.

If WN could get some flights out of HPN or SWF, they would definately be money makers. This is simply due to the large cachement of passengers who live in these residential areas. Also, HPN is easily reached by cab or via Metro-North from New York City, plus a short cab ride or a shuttle bus.

There have been a few other threads mentioning some out of the way airports on the east coast like Atlantic City(casino to casino flights), Myrtle Beach(for the golfers) or Columbia SC(Textile producer & growing state capital), all underserved at the moment.

I think(I could be wrong) that ATL has the space for another discount airline, although Airtran and Delta would not be happy.


I would agree with others on this thread, it is time for WN to start looking south at Mexico, north to Canada and south east to the Carribean. Obviously, they would need to look into creating Customs facilities for domestic transfers, but they are definately a possibility.

I do, however, have a hard time imagining a Southwest jet landing in Montego Bay!!!!!
 
RL757PVD
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 2:05 am

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 13):
Well, the 'Boston' model doesn't really seem to have been duplicated since. Back in the 1990s, and with some fanfare, WN approached the Boston market like two pieces of bread in a sandwich:

Actually, i can see WN going into BOS eventually... the same way they are returning to SFO...essentially think of PVD as OAK, and SJC as MHT and SFO as BOS. same goes for the LA area.

Wn would also do BOS to keep FL and B6 honest. probably justa token presence to places like BWI, MDW, PHX, LAS, BNA etc...

That said, i hope they go to other bigger holes in their system before going to BOS.

NYC ATL and MSP are much larger vacancies in their route map than BOS would be.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
jsquared
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 2:18 am

Quoting MtnWest1979 (Reply 12):
I would like to see MSP as well.

If they want to tap into MSP, could they get into bed with Sun Country and try to build from there? Not an acquisition of SY, but some sort of partnership that could feed into their hubs?
 
garnetpalmetto
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 2:19 am

Quoting 787EWR (Reply 14):
or Columbia SC(Textile producer & growing state capital

Not many textiles produced in/around CAE anymore - CAE as a market is made up predominantly of government travelers (the US Dept of Justice's National Advocacy Center, the single training site for the US Attorney's Offices, is located there), families and trainees going to Fort Jackson (the US Army's largest training facility), and families and students going to the local colleges (University of South Carolina, Benedict College, Allen University, Columbia College, and, while it's in Orangeburg, SC, South Carolina State University)
South Carolina - too small to be its own country, too big to be a mental asylum.
 
PanAm747
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 2:21 am

If I recall correctly, WN makes the decision to enter a market after extensive research that shows (a) they can enter a city and fly to multiple markets and (b) they can schedule their flights to have a 20 minute turn-around time, and (b) they feel they can effectively make a profit from such a venture.

With that in mind, I don't think that Mexico and the Caribbean will be likely expansion locations. Both areas primarily fall into the category of VFR (Visiting Friends & Relatives) or leisure travellers on holiday. For example, PVR and CUN would end up having too many "free" trips booked as the reward for X number of free trips from WN's frequent fliers.

As for the New York area, could JFK and EWR be served by WN AND have twenty minute turn-arounds? My first impulse would be to say no, but that hasn't stopped WN from entering PHL, so possibly it could be done.

As for MSP, I don't think WN will get there anytime soon, but not because of the Big, Bad, Red-Tails - there's no room! The Lindbergh Terminal is almost completely full, and NW wants to make that one SkyTeam exclusive. That would mean everyone else is moved to the HHH Terminal, and that would necessitate a MAJOR expansion - AA, UA, US, F9, and all the others would need to be accomodated first, and then if there's room, WN.

This is not to say that WN is afraid to enter a fortress hub - DEN, SFO, and DTW all have WN service. But WN's business model requires a whole host of factors to be in place before they decide to enter a market. My personal belief is that before expanding again, WN will concentrate on frequencies and staying profitable.
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flynavy
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 2:23 am

I'm surprised they haven't entered markets like RIC or ROA. I think Richmond could work for them, provided there are gates available.
Change is: one airline, six continents!
 
PVD757
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 2:26 am

the hole between RDU and JAX seems logical to fill - the difficult part is finding the right airport. If ATL only had a secondary airport...

I've laways wondered is GSP could be the 'in-between' point for ATL, CLT, CAE, and TYS...
 
iflyswa
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 3:13 am

Someone in marketing last year came up with a great plan to bring about new revenue and grow our existing route network. I'm pretty sure Southwest's next city will be LVS. That's right: sunny, beautiful Las Vegas, New Mexico!

Just like Southwest is the low-cost alternative to high-priced legacy carriers, Southwest will bill Las Vegas, New Mexico, as a low-cost alternative to the old Lost Wages...oops: Las Vegas.

The City of Las Vegas, New Mexico, has made this an attractive new market for Southwest to enter, introducing new shows and attractions to rival those you'll find in the expensive hotels on the strip--like the Canyon-Blue Man Group, Cirque du Ole!, and even a coreographed water feature, the Bellagio FUN-tains! Plus, there will even be a showgirl act, the "Long Legged LUVlies", with Southwest flight attendants clad in outfits designed by Pinka (one of our original flight attendants) and styled after the the vintage hotpants and go-go boot uniforms. Not to mention, of course, Las Vegas, New Mexico offers much in the way of fine dining, golf, and rich history.

Yes-sir-eee, Las Vegas, New Mexico is sure to become the next big money-maker for Southwest!


Haha. Seriously, y'all can speculate as much as you want, but only God and Pete McGlade know where we'll go next!
Opinions expressed by "iflyswa" are not those of Southwest Airlines Officers, Directors, or Employees.
 
isitsafenow
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 3:41 am

You gotta remember what Herb said a few years ago. He wants to get his airplanes in and out of the gate as fast as
possible. Keep them flying and you keep money coming in. You cant do a 20 minute turn at EWR, LGA or ORD.
Herb will pass on those three. I like CVG or MSP myself. They could start with two gates and build from there...
like they usually do.
safe
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
 
ShannoninAMA
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 3:44 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 10):
I vote for ATL. Put a spankin on AirTran.

Yeah, and then they get a spankin from DL

Quoting Iflyswa (Reply 21):

LOL, what are you smokin?
Actually, that isnt half a bad idea....i might need to take the 2 hour drive down to LVS!

[Edited 2007-05-30 20:44:45]
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flynavy
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 4:18 am

Would that be the first flight between two cities with the same name? Las Vegas to Las Vegas?
Change is: one airline, six continents!
 
BigOrange
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 4:25 am

Quoting IH8B6 (Reply 8):
CVG will never work as long as there is a Delta focus city there.

That's what people said about PHL!
 
alphascan
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 4:37 am

Quoting BigOrange (Reply 25):
That's what people said about PHL!

You must not have read the article.
"To he who only has a hammer in his toolbelt, every problem looks like a nail."
 
Crewchief
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 4:58 am

Here's a one-off suggestion: Milwaukee. They can do around Chicago what they did around Boston, this time with MDW and MKE. Additionally, an early action can kill off FL's gambit to escape Atlanta, thereby lessening any competitive threat by that LCC. And if FL's projected MKE traffic is accurate, they can make money at it, too.
 
787EWR
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 5:17 am

Quoting Crewchief (Reply 27):
Here's a one-off suggestion: Milwaukee. They can do around Chicago what they did around Boston, this time with MDW and MKE. Additionally, an early action can kill off FL's gambit to escape Atlanta, thereby lessening any competitive threat by that LCC. And if FL's projected MKE traffic is accurate, they can make money at it, too.

Be a real slap in the face to Airtran since they have been trying to buy Midwest.

Quoting Garnetpalmetto (Reply 17):
Not many textiles produced in/around CAE anymore - CAE as a market is made up predominantly of government travelers (the US Dept of Justice's National Advocacy Center, the single training site for the US Attorney's Offices, is located there), families and trainees going to Fort Jackson (the US Army's largest training facility), and families and students going to the local colleges (University of South Carolina, Benedict College, Allen University, Columbia College, and, while it's in Orangeburg, SC, South Carolina State University)

Unaware of that. I thought texties was still going strong down there. Might not be as attractive as I thought. I assume CAE is limited to regional jets from the majors now?

Hooters Airline has been gone for a few years, does Spirit have any competition at MYR?
 
deltal1011man
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 5:19 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 10):
I vote for ATL. Put a spankin on AirTran.

i vote for them here to even thought it won't happen......they can't take DL and FL but i would love to see WN come in and kick FL out!!!!
 
isitsafenow
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 5:23 am

Quoting 787EWR (Reply 28):
Be a real slap in the face to Airtran since they have been trying to buy Midwest

I was looking at MKE service as a slap at Midwest. Different strokes for different folks, I guess.
safe  scratchchin 
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
 
sphealey
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 5:26 am

> I'm pretty sure Southwest's next city will be LVS.
> That's right: sunny, beautiful Las Vegas, New Mexico!

Not to mention the world-renowned Star Hill Inn.

sPh
 
USPIT10L
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 5:28 am

Quoting IH8B6 (Reply 8):
2 or 3 flights a day on WN to wherever vs. 6 or 7 flights a day on Delta/Delta Connection to the same place are no match for a 'discount carrier'. WN comes in, DL lowers fares in the appropriate markets and the CVG residents fly DL due to the more convienient schedule, skymiles, etc...then WN pulls out, DL raises fares and everyone bitches about DL. Low fare carriers have tried CVG time and time again (the 'old' Airtran, Vanguard, Sunair), and the only people that fly them are the people that truly hate Delta, not just the people looking for lower fares. The people looking for lower fares just buy the cheaper fare on DL while it lasts and then the Enquirer (the daily CVG tabloid) goes back to publishing hate speech about Delta.

I would love to see WN in CVG so I can get my parents to Florida for less than $400 but it won't happen.

The only way WN would pull out of any market is if it does not fit the business model (ie, delays at SFO and DEN, low profits/boardings in BPT, DET, and IAH). Even if DL matched fares and frequencies, they would lose money and WN would gain marketshare and passengers. WN did that at BWI to the point that US Airways not only lost their shirts trying to compete, but also ended up closing a hub, and BWI didn't have near the feed and presence for USAir that CVG does for DL. WN can and will compete with legacies at their fortress hubs, save ORD, EWR and LGA.
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HPRamper
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 5:32 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 9):
IMHO.. WN should consider buying US Airways, and create three companies under WN.

Lawlz.  rotfl  Not only would neither company go for that idea, but it would never be approved by the government anyway. Imagine the domination in PHX and LAS.

Quoting MtnWest1979 (Reply 12):
Well, I had a dream last night WN was in ANC, so hopefully that will come to fruition!

I don't see that succeeding with an AS hub there. AS is too good an airline with a very loyal FF base for the most part, and with larger aircraft.

Quoting MtnWest1979 (Reply 12):
I would somewhat like to see lesser service to more locations, like only 2-5 flts a day to 'lesser' locations (like Sioux Falls, Cedar Rapids, Eugene, Evansville, etc.). But employee utilization would be a large waste, as it stands now.

WN wouldn't do that few number of flights anywhere because it would not be cost-effective to have employees staffed for a station like that, and they will never hire a ground handling service.

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 18):
The Lindbergh Terminal is almost completely full, and NW wants to make that one SkyTeam exclusive. That would mean everyone else is moved to the HHH Terminal,

Ugh...god forbid.
 
apodino
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 5:32 am

Quoting Crewchief (Reply 27):
Here's a one-off suggestion: Milwaukee. They can do around Chicago what they did around Boston, this time with MDW and MKE. Additionally, an early action can kill off FL's gambit to escape Atlanta, thereby lessening any competitive threat by that LCC. And if FL's projected MKE traffic is accurate, they can make money at it, too.

This would not work for several reasons. One, FL's projections that you are stating are based on the merger with YX, and all the YX passengers flying the merged carrier. If WN goes into MKE, YX will still be there and MKE flyers are very loyal to YX. Secondly, FL already serves MKE, albiet in a smaller role. And third, MDW I believe is now WN's biggest station, if you add MKE, some passengers who would fly out of MDW would move to MKE, remember they are only about 1 and half hours at most apart. Fourth, there isn't much gate space in MKE at the moment, so where would they get that from?

Quoting Flynavy (Reply 19):
I'm surprised they haven't entered markets like RIC or ROA. I think Richmond could work for them, provided there are gates available

RIC could work, although ORF is not that far a drive from RIC. ROA will never happen. ROA has some serious operational limitations, noteably runway length and terrain issues. Now the runways are about the same length as MDW, but there is a lot more terrain in the area to contend with, and I believe only 15 and 24 are authorized for takeoff and only 6 and 33 are authorized for landing, but I don't have the plates handy so I am not too sure about this. When you think of ROA, think BUR, but with more terrain issues around and no ILS approaches.

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 15):
Actually, i can see WN going into BOS eventually

Not gonna happen and I hope it doesn't. With CO moving to A, once the gate shuffle in C is completed, the only gates available in the airport will be B37 and B38, which are the old America West gates. WN would want more gates than this, plus they would have no room to expand. And if they wanted to build more gates, the rest of the terminal is controlled by AA, so you can forget that idea entirely.

Also, now MHT provides free shuttle service to the airport from Sullivan Square, which is a station on the Orange Line and is only about a 5 minute ride from Downtown Boston, as well as the Anderson RTC in Woburn, which doubles as a park and ride facility for people who want to leave their cars. MHT is only about a 40 minute ride from Sullivan square and a 30 minute ride from Woburn, and those are very conservative estimates. With those options available, there is no reason for WN to go to BOS.

And PVD is building a rail station that will link South Station with PVD. And given the fact that BOS is a chronically Delayed airport (There is nothing they can do to change this I am afraid short of lifting the 4L noise abatement and putting PRM on 4R and 4L.), I will throw an example at you. You have two flights going from ORD on UA. One is going to BOS, and the other is going to MHT. BOS has enough fog to be in a 2 hour delay program, where MHT has similar weather but no program. Both flights are scheduled to leave at the same time. MHT leaves on time and takes off, while BOS delays boarding for an hour due to the program. Eventually the MHT flight lands, just as the BOS flight is still pushing back from the gate in ORD. Then lets say a passenger from MHT had a final destination in Downtown Boston. He gets his luggage and takes the free shuttle to Sullivan Square, which takes about 45 minutes. The BOS flight is now crossing over Lake Erie, while the MHT passenger arrives in Downtown Boston.

It is for this reason that there will always be demand for flights out of MHT and PVD. Instead of forcing passengers to fly out of BOS, airlines like AA and DL would do good to get some of these passengers to the secondary airports. They can get higher yields, and they help themselves with slightly less traffic in BOS, which keeps delays down. What could be better than that?
 
787EWR
Posts: 162
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2007 5:41 am

RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 5:35 am

Quoting USPIT10L (Reply 32):
The only way WN would pull out of any market is if it does not fit the business model (ie, delays at SFO and DEN, low profits/boardings in BPT, DET, and IAH). Even if DL matched fares and frequencies, they would lose money and WN would gain marketshare and passengers. WN did that at BWI to the point that US Airways not only lost their shirts trying to compete, but also ended up closing a hub, and BWI didn't have near the feed and presence for USAir that CVG does for DL. WN can and will compete with legacies at their fortress hubs, save ORD, EWR and LGA.

I didn't see the previous entry. I don't know the traffic numbers at CVG, but I believe their is plenty of gate space, runways going in multiple directions and, I would imagine, passengers desperate to "freely move around the country" for a lower cost. Even if it is a cattle call.
 
mkeflyer717
Posts: 388
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 6:08 am

Quoting Apodino (Reply 34):
there isn't much gate space in MKE at the moment, so where would they get that from?

Did you forget about the 8 new gates on C? There is soon going to be plenty of extra room for new airlines in MKE once it is completed which I believe will happen this summer. I don't assume that the addition was done without any hope of new service soon... something must be in the works with someone whether it be WN, B6, etc. They're not just going to let 8 brand spanking new gates sit and collect dust, at least I would hope not.

I think WN would do very well in MKE but then again I don't want to see Midwest suffer any losses. It really just depends how aggressive WN would be - would they pack a punch by starting a numerous amount of new flights in direct competition to existing YX service or just a few to select underserved markets from MKE.
Avoid the Chicago ORDeal!! Fly MKE!
 
A380fo
Posts: 210
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 6:12 am

If LGB had the slots open, does anyone think that WN would consider it as an option.
 
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mke717spotter
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 6:21 am

Yeah like Mkeflyer717 said, someones going to have to fill those 8 new gates that are being built. Perhaps we could hear something pretty soon about new airline/flights since the hammerhead gates are supposed to open up in July unless they fell behind schedule. I do think though that there's a better chance of B6 coming to MKE before WN.
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
VictorKilo
Posts: 242
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2006 7:39 am

RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 8:47 am

Assuming BOS and LGA/JFK/EWR are out, and that no new markets would start in the next couple of years with service to IAD, SFO, gate-constrained LAX, or Wright-Amendment blocked DAL, and assuming that WN would only open a new station with routes that currently have at least 500 pax O&D per the latest DOT numbers, it narrows the number of possible new routes down to 40.

20 of these routes are from ATL.

(BWI/MDW/CLE/DEN/DTW/FLL/IAH/IND/JAX/MCI/LAS/MSY/MCO/PHL/PHX/PIT/RDU/SEA/TPA/PBI).

10 of these routes are from MSP.

(MDW/DEN/DTW/LAS/MCO/PHL/PHX/SAN/SEA/STL).

While both of these markets are strong hubs for existing legacy carriers, and both have established LCC bases (with FL in ATL being much larger than SY in MSP), these appear to be the only markets with enough O&D to sustain the 10+ daily flights that WN would start any operation with. Some of these routes (like the DTW routes) are pretty unlikely as a starting point, but there's enough demand there to make it work.

As far as other options go....

MKE? Only four routes (DEN/LAS/MCO/PHX)

CLT? Only three routes (BWI/MDW/LAS)

MIA? Only two routes (MDW/PHL)

ACY? Only one route (MCO)

CVG? No routes.
 
af773atmsp
Posts: 2357
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 9:07 am

On mspupdate.com it also says that the reason why WN isn't at MSP is because the HHH Terminal does not have enough gates. Will the HHH Terminal have enough gates when the 2020 Vision Expansion is done? I would also like WN to start service at MSP. My family and I want to go to SLC and visit my aunt and uncle, sadly prices on DL and NW are too expensive, if WN starts service at MSP I will definately fly WN.
DC10-40,MD88,A319,A320,A332,717,722,733,737,738,752,ATR-72,736,788
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IPFreely
Posts: 2509
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 9:18 am

DSM would be my choice -- for selfish reasons, not for WN's benefit. But with current service levels and fares at DSM it seems that WN could do very well with several daily flights to MDW & MCI, and maybe daily or several flights per week to LAS and some point east.
 
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chrisnh
Posts: 4135
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 9:50 am

One other issue regarding Boston is that Southwest came to PVD and then MHT while the city was in the throes of the Big Dig. For those not from around these parts, that was the multi-billion-dollar projeect to submerge traffic through downtown Boston. It took way longer than expected and cost way more, but MHT and PVD blossomed in the 1990s because that project was underway. During the height of construction, someone living geographically much closer to Logan than to MHT (or PVD) would be inclined to use either of the smaller airports because it then made more sense. Today, for a host of reasons, someone living closer to MHT than to Logan might well use Logan instead. More flights; bigger planes.

Now that the Big Dig is 'done' (finger quotes), both MHT and PVD have seen their traffic plateau. But some of that is due to airlines simply yanking capacity all over the place in order to sustain high fares. Delta had a more selfish reason: They needed to push traffic to their 'white elephant' terminal at Logan. One way to do that was to cut back at PVD and MHT, which they did.

One factor that ought to be played up is the total cost to fly. There is the obvious air-side component (the ticket), but missing oftentimes is the land-side cost a passenger needs to pay. There's parking, there's tolls, there're other fees. Taken in aggregate, MHT (and PVD) both become friendlier to the wallet...and to the blood-pressure machine.

Chris in NH
 
sw733
Posts: 5874
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 9:50 am

Quoting FreequentFlier (Thread starter):
LGA? (if they could get slots)

Why bother when they can just route people to LGA using ATA?

Quoting Type-Rated (Reply 6):
"Big Red" wouldn't be happy.

I know...they wouldn't know what to do when an airline with real customer service comes in!  Wink

Quoting 787EWR (Reply 14):
If WN could get some flights out of HPN or SWF, they would definately be money makers

Wow...great idea. I never thought about those. I agree, real money makers indeed, especially Newburgh! They're experiencing a real boom lately.

Quoting Flynavy (Reply 19):
think Richmond could work for them, provided there are gates available.

Maybe, but ORF is nearby.

Quoting IPFreely (Reply 41):
But with current service levels and fares at DSM it seems that WN could do very well with several daily flights to MDW & MCI, and maybe daily or several flights per week to LAS and some point east.

MDW sure...MCI...hmmm...I don't know about that. LAS would have direct competition with Allegiant, as would routes to MCO (well, Orlando) and TPA (well, St. Pete). Other than MDW, I can see maybe a DSM-LAX once a day, other than that...yikes. I don't see it happening.
 
axio
Posts: 264
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 9:54 am

ATL will be the last city in the US to get Southwest service. It has only one airport, which is very congested, and already has a strong LCC (Airtran) present. The only way WN will get into ATL is if they bought Airtran.
Time for a new viewing deck at AKL!
 
DeltaAVL
Posts: 1525
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RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 10:22 am

Quoting PVD757 (Reply 20):
I've laways wondered is GSP could be the 'in-between' point for ATL, CLT, CAE, and TYS...

Oh, that would be sweet! I bet GSP could fill a couple of 737s going to various places.
"We break, We bend, With hand in hand, When hope is gone, Just hang on." -Guster
 
b52murph
Posts: 223
Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 7:02 pm

RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 10:24 am

Quoting Axio (Reply 44):
ATL will be the last city in the US to get Southwest service. It has only one airport, which is very congested, and already has a strong LCC (Airtran) present. The only way WN will get into ATL is if they bought Airtran.

Wouldn't they consider going to Charlie Brown airport on the outskirts? Also...what about DeKalb-Peachtree and Gwinetti Co--both with 6K ft runways--long enough for a 737?

Another option--work with the AF to open a PAX terminal at Dobbins ARB; similar to what was done at MYR long before the base went onto the BRAC list or MCO while it was still an active duty SAC base...
 
AirRyan
Posts: 2399
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 9:57 am

RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 10:29 am

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 18):
As for MSP, I don't think WN will get there anytime soon, but not because of the Big, Bad, Red-Tails - there's no room! The Lindbergh Terminal is almost completely full, and NW wants to make that one SkyTeam exclusive. That would mean everyone else is moved to the HHH Terminal, and that would necessitate a MAJOR expansion - AA, UA, US, F9, and all the others would need to be accomodated first, and then if there's room, WN.

I think it was more opportune to go into MSP while NW was in bankruptcy than it was SFO, before NW get's their way and moves all the non-Skyteam members to the Humphrey terminal! I wouldn't be oppossed to WN buying SY, their gates and their aircraft (738 is just fine for WN use) and make the HHH terminal WN's. If WN drags their feet too much longer, 2020 won't matter if NW gets their way and moves all the others to the HHH terminal.

Quoting Axio (Reply 44):
ATL will be the last city in the US to get Southwest service. It has only one airport, which is very congested, and already has a strong LCC (Airtran) present. The only way WN will get into ATL is if they bought Airtran.

The only way WN gets into ATL is if they were to buy FL - right now there are just not enough gates or airspace in ATL to handle WN's entry to the tune that they would want to enter (gates and flights.)
 
kcrwflyer
Posts: 2614
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 11:57 am

RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 10:39 am

Quoting DeltaAVL (Reply 45):
Oh, that would be sweet! I bet GSP could fill a couple of 737s going to various places.

10?
 
DeltaAVL
Posts: 1525
Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2007 10:15 pm

RE: Where Will WN Go Next?

Thu May 31, 2007 10:42 am

Quoting KcrwFlyer (Reply 48):
10?

Hmmm. Well, they'd have to count on getting passengers from CAE, AVL, among other places. Personally, I could see it happening.
"We break, We bend, With hand in hand, When hope is gone, Just hang on." -Guster

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