User avatar
Tugger
Topic Author
Posts: 9927
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 8:38 am

A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 3:42 am

Interesting little tid bit from Airbus today:

Airbus plans 13 A350s monthly by 2016
The Associated Press June 4, 2007, 1:56PM EST - By EMMA VANDORE - TOULOUSE, France

Fair use excerpt:
"Airbus... ...will be producing its... ...A350 XWB plane at a rate of 13 per month by 2016, making it the fastest made wide-bodied plane at Airbus, Chief Engineer Gordon McConnell said Monday."

The article can be seen here:
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8PI55900.htm

Tug
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
EI321
Posts: 5049
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 3:45 am

It appears that as the A330/340 line winds down, the A350 line will crank up.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 15061
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 3:46 am

Boeing can only do 10 a month per line with the '3 day' final assembly time. Is Airbus going to have 2 lines?
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5538
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 3:49 am

Before they crank production up that much, they need the sales to justify it. It may happen, but so far it is not too promising. But it's still at least 6 years away, and sales may take off.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
bringiton
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:24 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 3:56 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
Boeing can only do 10 a month per line with the '3 day' final assembly time. Is Airbus going to have 2 lines?

Or they can have more assembly stations per line .
 
EI321
Posts: 5049
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 3:58 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
Boeing can only do 10 a month per line with the '3 day' final assembly time. Is Airbus going to have 2 lines?

I believe that Boeing are planning 14/month after 4 years production.
 
slz396
Posts: 1883
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:01 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 4:02 am

13 copies per month is a very reasonable number in my view.

For reference: Airbus is currently planning to produce 10 A330/A340 planes a month and with a steadily growing need for more planes, it is very reasonable to expect an increase in output of about 30% over a 10 year period. Nothing overly ambitious at all.

Once the 787 is in production, we will see its output increased to 16/month too for the same reason.

[Edited 2007-06-04 21:04:33]
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26788
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 4:10 am

13 a month should be doable within three years of EIS.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 15061
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 4:15 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 4):
Or they can have more assembly stations per line .

It's the whole Pentium 4 vs. PowerPC argument all over again, but with jets!

Quoting EI321 (Reply 5):
I believe that Boeing are planning 14/month after 4 years production.

How?
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
bringiton
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:24 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 4:21 am

I think this would be a very inteligent move on airbus's part . Mainly because they need to deliver quick so that the salesmen now can sell aircrafts with tight deliveries moreover remember boeing only has 2 high selling varients , whereas airbus will most likely sell all 3 in good no.s . For boeing the increase in production or a totally new line is inevetible as soon as the -10 varient goes online .
 
astuteman
Posts: 7093
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 4:31 am

Quoting Tugger (Thread starter):
Airbus plans 13 A350s monthly by 2016

= 156 per annum

Quoting EI321 (Reply 5):
I believe that Boeing are planning 14/month after 4 years production.

= 168 per annum

A total of 324 per annum...
Not a million miles away from 6 000 frames over 20 years....  Smile

Regards
 
MCIGuy
Posts: 1445
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:15 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 4:35 am

This is of course provided there is demand for 13/month.   

[Edited 2007-06-04 21:39:46]
Airliners.net Moderator Team
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18549
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 5:11 am

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 11):
This is of course provided there is demand for 13/month.

Given this, and your responses in the other thread, it's easy to believe you'd be delighted to see the A350 fail.

Why is that? sarcastic 
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5538
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 5:27 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 12):

Given this, and your responses in the other thread, it's easy to believe you'd be delighted to see the A350 fail.

I can't speak for MCIGuy, but I also am pessimistic about the A350, but I do not delight in it by any means. I want Airbus to succeed, but I can't help it if they make bad decisions and shoot themselves in the foot. I think it is fairly clear that the airlines regard the 787 to be a superior plane, and are voting with their money.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18549
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 5:47 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 13):
I think it is fairly clear that the airlines regard the 787 to be a superior plane, and are voting with their money.

I would agree given the earlier availability of the 787 and Airbus's struggles to come up with a viable alternative. It seems, despite the much discussed nonsense about the pros and cons of barrel vs. panels, Airbus now has a plane that can stand comparison to the 787. It's also worth remembering that the vast majority of airlines that will be buying planes in this segment have yet to make any decisions.

Let's see what the sales balance is from this point onwards. There's still an awful lot to play for.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7093
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 5:51 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 13):
I think it is fairly clear that the airlines regard the 787 to be a superior plane, and are voting with their money.

I don't think it is clear at all - yet.
Many people are at pains to point out that you're going to have to wait a LONG time before you get your hands on an A350XWB.
I suspect the 787 still has slots available sooner than the A350.

You and I share concerns about the the A350.
I suspect we differ slightly on the magnitude of the consequences.

Regards
 
CJAContinental
Posts: 343
Joined: Sat May 27, 2006 9:03 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:00 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 3):
Before they crank production up that much, they need the sales to justify it.

Ironically, a claim like this could surely draw sales, it means airlines can take more aircraft more quickly, surely, diversifying airlines away from the 787 slightly.
Work Hard/Fly Right.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5538
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:06 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 15):
You and I share concerns about the the A350.
I suspect we differ slightly on the magnitude of the consequences.

I can agree with that; in fact, I hope you are right and I'm wrong.

Quoting CJAContinental (Reply 16):
Ironically, a claim like this could surely draw sales, it means airlines can take more aircraft more quickly, surely, diversifying airlines away from the 787 slightly.

In my opinion this is the biggest hope for the A350; the fact that Boeing cannot begin to meet the demand by themselves.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26788
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:07 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 14):
Let's see what the sales balance is from this point onwards. There's still an awful lot to play for.

Yup. The Boeing horse has a nice lead, but the finish line is many furlongs away...  checkmark 
 
Ruscoe
Posts: 1743
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 1999 5:41 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:08 am

As is trhe case with Boeing, the limiting factor will be the suppliers not the assemblers.

Ruscoe
 
deltadc9
Posts: 2811
Joined: Fri Apr 14, 2006 10:00 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:15 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
Boeing can only do 10 a month per line with the '3 day' final assembly time

Where did you hear that?

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 8):
How?

4 bays, 3 days per plane, thats a lot of planes. The issue is supplier constraints, not assembly rate.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
JeffB
Posts: 91
Joined: Fri Oct 03, 2003 1:38 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:20 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 8):
It's the whole Pentium 4 vs. PowerPC argument all over again, but with jets!

I don't which is worse.. the fact that Ikramerica posted that line or the fact that I got the "humor" in that.
 
474218
Posts: 4510
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 12:27 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:21 am

What I found interesting in the original article is that Airbus admits to only 13 firm orders, that only a months worth of airframes.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:41 am

Quoting 474218 (Reply 22):
What I found interesting in the original article is that Airbus admits to only 13 firm orders, that only a months worth of airframes.

I don't think Airbus will have a problem with orders..even if its going to be supposedly inferior to the B787 (so Jacobin777 says with a bit of sarcasm), it still going to be a phenomenal plane and sell a countless amount....
"Up the Irons!"
 
474218
Posts: 4510
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 12:27 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:57 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 20):
4 bays, 3 days per plane, thats a lot of planes. The issue is supplier constraints, not assembly rate.

Each bay is not producing a seperate aircraft. Every 787 has to go through each one of those four bays. Full production will have one 787 leaving the fourth bay every third day.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5538
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 7:02 am

Quoting 474218 (Reply 24):

Each bay is not producing a seperate aircraft. Every 787 has to go through each one of those four bays. Full production will have one 787 leaving the fourth bay every third day.

That is not what I understood Boeing has said; IIRC they are planning each plane to take 3 days from start to finish.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18549
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 8:09 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 20):
4 bays, 3 days per plane, thats a lot of planes.

You're mistaken if you think this means Boeing could churn out 4 787s every 3 days.

The bays have different functions and each plane has to visit multiple bays. I think some functions can be performed at multiple bays, but some are unique to certain bays. All this information was in the 787 update thread recently.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
474218
Posts: 4510
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 12:27 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 9:08 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 26):
You're mistaken if you think this means Boeing could churn out 4 787s every 3 days.

The bays have different functions and each plane has to visit multiple bays. I think some functions can be performed at multiple bays, but some are unique to certain bays. All this information was in the 787 update thread recently.

Finally another voice of reason. Scbrini, I have been arguing with these people for months, they actually think you can take a bunch of parts and three days later have a complete 787.
 
2175301
Posts: 1657
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:10 am

Having worked an assembly line once (building semi-trailers).... that took a day each to assemble from wheel trucks and frame pieces to painted and sitting in the yard ready for pickup. Because the assembly line had 6 stages with different functions performed at each stage... We were able to produce 6 trailers a day on the assembly line in a single day shift.


The Boeings line looks like an assembly line to me - with 4 stages. Boeing has announced that they plan on getting to 3 days to build a 787 - which translates into 18 hours at each stage over 4 stages. Assuming that Boeing can get their stages exactly balanced.... they could be turning out a 787 every 18 hours (or so). In a normal 5 day week (round the clock) that translates to 6.66 planes per week (or about 27 planes every 4 weeks).

Thus, I would expect the single assembly line that Boeing now has to be able to produce in the range of 24 - 30 787s per month depending on how well they can get to that 18 hours per stage.

This is assuming that they can get the suppliers lined up and the logistics working.

I have no doubt that by 2016 Boeing could have the suppliers lined up and be building 30 - 40 787s per month if they see the demand 4 years ahead of time. Since I gather (as reported above) that Boeing plans to be at about 14 planes a month in 2012. - I see no reason they could not easily double that, or more, by 2016 as 4 years is adequate time to scale up, and even build a second line if needed (assuming the sales were there to support such production).
 
redcordes
Posts: 244
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2006 6:28 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:26 am

By 2016, wow now that's predicting the future. A whole lot could happen by then. I'll bet that's comforting to the stockholders. I predict that Boeing will have their next generation aircraft after the 787 in the final design stages by then--maybe even an SST as well.
"The only source of knowledge is experience." A. Einstein "Science w/o religion is lame. Religion w/o science is blind."
 
Ken777
Posts: 9999
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:53 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 13):
I want Airbus to succeed, but I can't help it if they make bad decisions and shoot themselves in the foot.

I think that Airbus was pragmatic and decided to do what they could do now. As long as the XWB is a significant improvement in the area of performance it will do well.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 17):
In my opinion this is the biggest hope for the A350; the fact that Boeing cannot begin to meet the demand by themselves.

That is a critical factor for Airbus in terms of the 350. It doesn't have to mirror the 787 in order to be successful, it just has to be fairly close AND have slots available. I think that over time the 350 will be OK and Airbus will be happy with the profitability - and the fact that they can get to work on the 320 replacement full time far sooner than if they had gone with a barrel approach.

I'm looking for more than 200 orders for the 350 this year - especially when the 787 slots fill up even more than they are right now.
 
kaitak744
Posts: 2212
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:32 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:58 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 14):
It's also worth remembering that the vast majority of airlines that will be buying planes in this segment have yet to make any decisions.

The only major airlines who have not made a 767/A300/A330 replacement decision are:
American, United, US, Delta, BA, SA, KL, AF, LH, IB, TG, MH, Alitalia, El Al, Emirates, and Aeroflot.

Boeing 787 (with no doubt) customers: American, United, US, Delta, and El Al.

In the air (potential A350 customers): BA, SA, KL, AF, LH, IB, TG, MH, Alitalia, Emirates, and Aeroflot.

That is only about 300 possible orders for the A350. That is all that is left. Boeing's early timing really helped.

Quoting 474218 (Reply 27):
they actually think you can take a bunch of parts and three days later have a complete 787.

Boeing stated the following: the 787 will spend no longer than 3 days in the final assembly building.
This means that you put in the parts one end of the line. 3 days later, you get a complete plane. That has absolutely nothing to do with how many planes they can make per month.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5538
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:06 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 31):
Boeing stated the following: the 787 will spend no longer than 3 days in the final assembly building.
This means that you put in the parts one end of the line. 3 days later, you get a complete plane. That has absolutely nothing to do with how many planes they can make per month.

 checkmark 
As has been said many times, the limit of how many planes they can produce will be set by the suppliers.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
MD-90
Posts: 7836
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2000 12:45 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:07 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 12):

Given this, and your responses in the other thread, it's easy to believe you'd be delighted to see the A350 fail.

Expressing doubts about how well the marketplace will view the A350 is a far cry from being delighted to see the A350 fail.
 
cygnuschicago
Posts: 518
Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2007 3:34 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:44 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 31):
That is only about 300 possible orders for the A350. That is all that is left. Boeing's early timing really helped.

Good analysis. This is something that is often overlooked. Boeing has already snapped up many large former Airbus customers, and the "swing both ways" customers. What's left is primarily Boeing loyalists, and a few large majors. No matter how good the A350 is, it has missed the boat. The only hope for Airbus to exceed 1,000 units is the 777 replacement market, a strategy they are wisely following. However, the risk is that Boeing may counter with a 787-10/11. Existing 787 operators may choose that over a second type in the A359/10 class, even if the latter is more suited as a 777 replacement.
If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
 
Shenzhen
Posts: 1666
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2003 12:11 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:55 am

Sounds good Airbus. Now lets hope that the next down cycle is small so all ye aerospace workers need not sit at home for too long.

Cheers
 
User avatar
PM
Posts: 5193
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:56 am

Quoting Redcordes (Reply 29):
By 2016, wow now that's predicting the future. A whole lot could happen by then. I'll bet that's comforting to the stockholders. I predict that Boeing will have their next generation aircraft after the 787 in the final design stages

Less than a decade from now Boeing will be on the point of replacing the 787?! Would you like to share with the rest of us the evidence to support what many will find a ludicrous suggestion?

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 31):
That is only about 300 possible orders for the A350. That is all that is left.

Really? That'll come as a bit of a blow to both Boeing and Airbus who are each predicting a market in the thousands over the next two decades. (See Reply #10 above.)
 
474218
Posts: 4510
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 12:27 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 12:02 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 25):
That is not what I understood Boeing has said; IIRC they are planning each plane to take 3 days from start to finish.

If you look at the BOEING press release you will see you did not understand it correctly:
http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2007/q2/070521c_nr.html
 
kaitak744
Posts: 2212
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:32 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 1:44 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 36):
Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 31):
That is only about 300 possible orders for the A350. That is all that is left.

Really? That'll come as a bit of a blow to both Boeing and Airbus who are each predicting a market in the thousands over the next two decades. (See Reply #10 above.)

Yes, the 767/A300/A330 replacement market is huge, and the 200-300 seat market is seeing sizable growth. However, once an airline orders a 787, they will not place follow-on orders for the A350. They will place orders for the 787. (unless of coarse the 787 fails to meet their goals). In the pre EIS stage, it is not a race for orders, but a race for customers. The greater amount of customers you have, the better off you are in the long run.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 34):
The only hope for Airbus to exceed 1,000 units is the 777 replacement market, a strategy they are wisely following. However, the risk is that Boeing may counter with a 787-10/11. Existing 787 operators may choose that over a second type in the A359/10 class, even if the latter is more suited as a 777 replacement.

Yes, Airbus practically ditched any form of 767 or A300 replacement. The A350-800 is simply too large to provide 1-1 replacement for a 767 or A300. Airbus is basically replacing their own A330/A340 lines and Boeing's 777 line. They are also competing with the 787-9 and 787-10.

I highly doubt Boeing will build anything bigger than the 787-10. The wing will not be able to support the additional weight, the range would be sacrificed, and Boeing very boldly stated that it is not wise to cover a market of such great variance (200-350 seats) with just one fuselage cross section. As a A350-1000 competitor, I see a 777-300ER advanced with program launch by 2011. This would enter service just in time to compete with the A350-1000, which has EIS of 2015.

The easiest thing for Boeing to do is to get the existing 777-300ER design, add better engines, spin the same fuselage out of composites, and keep the same wing design but with composite materials.
 
MCIGuy
Posts: 1445
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:15 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 1:56 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 12):
Given this, and your responses in the other thread, it's easy to believe you'd be delighted to see the A350 fail.

Why is that?

No, no, you misunderstand. I don't want to see the A350 fail, not remotely, but I do think Airbus is making bad decisions again. Maybe not horrible decisions, but only time will tell. Don't get me wrong, I'd say the same thing if Boeing were making bad decisions, they just haven't made one in a while. The facts of where both are located makes no difference to me.  Smile
Airliners.net Moderator Team
 
azhobo
Posts: 281
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2007 1:52 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 2:52 pm

Airbus production at 13 a month. And no one has any issue with that? But they have issues saying Boeing will at best be able to roll out one every three days when they finally get things finely tuned (because it is not one every three days, but assembly of each one taking ONLY three days)!

HOBO
 
MCIGuy
Posts: 1445
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:15 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 3:16 pm

Quoting Azhobo (Reply 40):
Airbus production at 13 a month. And no one has any issue with that? But they have issues saying Boeing will at best be able to roll out one every three days when they finally get things finely tuned (because it is not one every three days, but assembly of each one taking ONLY three days)!

HOBO

That's a point that's often lost around here. I recall Boeing stating a maximum output of up to 28 frames a month on the one line.  Wink
Airliners.net Moderator Team
 
astuteman
Posts: 7093
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 3:29 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 30):
It doesn't have to mirror the 787 in order to be successful, it just has to be fairly close AND have slots available.

My take, too. Provided fuel burn, and overall cost of ownership are within a couple of percent, it'll still be WAY better than sitting on your old metal, and falling behind.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 38):
The easiest thing for Boeing to do is to get the existing 777-300ER design, add better engines, spin the same fuselage out of composites, and keep the same wing design but with composite materials.

FWIW I think that this is FAR from the easiest thing for Boeing to do.

In fact, my definition of insanity (and my (retrospective) issue with the old A350), would be to essentially design a NEW CFRP plane, (because that's what you would have done), and keep the OLD configuration, thus taking NO advantage whatsoever of the capabilities that the CFRP materials offer you in terms of things like, increased wingspan for less weight, or tailored cross-sections, etc. etc.

IMO if Boeing DO do this, they WILL design a completely new plane, and it will be Y3.
I'm sure others will share my view that a HGW 787-10 or even a 787-11 are actually a much easier route to this end, and one which (also IMO) has a much higher chance of success.
Just my  twocents 

Regards
 
firennice
Posts: 79
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:55 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 3:49 pm

From Boeing press release:

"Although the first airplane will take about seven weeks to assemble, the 787 team looks to continuously improve flow time as production ramps up. Ultimately, a 787 will roll out of the factory every three days."

thats 10 per month. We have had discussions as a provider that Boeing would like to move to 12-14. But overall the supply chain is stretched too thin in too many areas. We were told they would revisit the decision after 4-6 months of going at 10/month. They can evaluate all the suppliers and will find out if it can be done. They plan to go at least 12 months at 10 planes per month before any increase.

They dont want any rushes to fast production and have planes parts laying around Everett waiting for fasteners (which is what would happen today, if they tried to rush things), a wing, or cabin doors. Everything has to be supplied in the quantities they need. Titanium & CFRP, and fasteners, are not the same as aluminum and rivits, you can't just make a few phone calls and get 60 more tons of materials next month.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26788
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 9:43 pm

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 38):
I highly doubt Boeing will build anything bigger than the 787-10. The wing will not be able to support the additional weight, the range would be sacrificed, and Boeing very boldly stated that it is not wise to cover a market of such great variance (200-350 seats) with just one fuselage cross section.

The current wing can support MTOWs equal to the A350-1000 (640,000lbs) with some strengthening, but I believe Boeing may just build a new wing to make it more effective and efficient for the HGW (over ~550,000lb MTOW) models. This would help the range, as well newer engines with better SFCs, though Boeing has plenty of underfloor space to pack fuel in on larger models.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 38):
The easiest thing for Boeing to do is to get the existing 777-300ER design, add better engines, spin the same fuselage out of composites, and keep the same wing design but with composite materials.



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 42):
FWIW I think that this is FAR from the easiest thing for Boeing to do.

 checkmark 

It would require a wholesale redesign of the 777 to build it out of monolithic CFRP. The current plane is designed with the current production method and you can't just put all the internals designed for a riveted Al frame into a CFRP barrel with no modification.

Plus you then need to build the mandrels, tape-laying machines, autoclaves, and everything else that can handle a 777-sized fuselage. And design and prototype how large the barrels can be. Then completely redesign and rebuild the 777 assembly floor to handle "snap-tight" construction. And develop a whole new shipping process for the parts (can't use Dreamlifters so they'll probably need to be shipped by sea which will take time). And so on... And so on...

Believe me, adding another 20m to a 787-10 and slapping a new wing on her would be a cakewalk in comparison.

Quote:
In fact, my definition of insanity (and my (retrospective) issue with the old A350), would be to essentially design a NEW CFRP plane, (because that's what you would have done), and keep the OLD configuration, thus taking NO advantage whatsoever of the capabilities that the CFRP materials offer you in terms of things like, increased wingspan for less weight, or tailored cross-sections, etc. etc.

 checkmark 
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5538
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:07 pm

Quoting 474218 (Reply 37):

If you look at the BOEING press release you will see you did not understand it correctly:

You are correct, that is what that statement says. The thing is (and I do not have the time to track them down) other statements by Boeing officials have been very clear that it will ultimately three days to assemble each plane. Since we have conflicting statements from Boeing (it couldn't POSSIBLY be the case that not EVERYONE at Boeing knows what they are talking about, could it?  sarcastic  ) we'll have to wait and see. The statements that I recall about it taking three days to assemble a plane came from someone connected with the manufacturing process, I believe, and I would tend to give it more credibility than a general press release. But at this point I have no way of knowing which one is accurate.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
cygnuschicago
Posts: 518
Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2007 3:34 am

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:54 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 44):
The current wing can support MTOWs equal to the A350-1000 (640,000lbs) with some strengthening, but I believe Boeing may just build a new wing to make it more effective and efficient for the HGW (over ~550,000lb MTOW) models.

Yup, my thoughts too. I expect Boeing to launch a 787-10 and 11 for a circa. 2016 EIS, using a new wing to ensure optimal design.
If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
 
deltadc9
Posts: 2811
Joined: Fri Apr 14, 2006 10:00 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:39 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 26):
You're mistaken if you think this means Boeing could churn out 4 787s every 3 days.

I never said that, my point was that the final assembly bays have far more capacity than the supply chain, and 'adding another line" is not relevant to the reality of the situation. I have said this a thousand times. There is no line, there are assembly bays, and the capacity of those bays means the only constraints on the rate of production are the suppliers and logistics.

Boeing has indeed said several times the final assemembly time will be targeted at 3 days per plane when full rate production is achieved.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 32):
As has been said many times, the limit of how many planes they can produce will be set by the suppliers.

I am one of those saying it.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
sparkingwave
Posts: 568
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 1:01 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:15 am

When Boeing designs its next new plane, how possible would it be for it to replace the 777 and 747 lines at the same time, even possibly with a version to compete with the A380?

Boeing waited until Airbus froze the design for the A340 before coming out with the 777. It seems like they could pull the same maneuver when Airbus freezes the A350. I don't think for a moment that Boeing would let Airbus walk away with its 777 market. Couldn't it design something dazzling in 6 or so years?

SparkingWave ~~~
Flights to the moon and all major space stations. At Pan Am, the sky is no longer the limit!
 
bigjku
Posts: 1906
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

RE: A350XWB: 13 Per Month By 2016

Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:26 am

Quoting SparkingWave (Reply 48):
Boeing waited until Airbus froze the design for the A340 before coming out with the 777. It seems like they could pull the same maneuver when Airbus freezes the A350. I don't think for a moment that Boeing would let Airbus walk away with its 777 market. Couldn't it design something dazzling in 6 or so years?

With new wings for the HGW variants there is no reason the 787 cannot compete with the A350 across its product range. Any Y-3, ie a larger aircraft, will have to offer either substantially lower CASM or capability in the cargo hauling/range department to make it work. I do think Boeing will build a new Aircraft larger than the 787 eventually but not until the do a redesign of the 787 wing and see just how far they can strech the 787 program.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos