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flydreamliner
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Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 4:41 am

Quoting KL808 (Reply 6):
In my opinion that if a Japanese carrier is to order A380's I think it would be NH.

There was an interview posted on her by the ceo of ANA saying that their strategy was to move to smaller aircraft to swing back to reliable profitability. Japan is an incredible competitive market, they are focusing on high yield, not selling the greatest number of tickets, as that strategy has already proven itself ineffective.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
I think on the Pacific JAL, UA and NWA and the upcoming Chinese carriers are looking at what will happen.
They have no desire to spend billions on aircraft if they don't have to.

Of the carriers you listed, I think only the chinese have a strong potential to buy A380. JAL, much like ANA are focusing on increasing yields with smaller aircraft and more focus on premium services. NW and UA are more likely to go with 747-8 or 773 than they are A380. So far as I know, A380s can't even service any of NW's main hubs (save NRT) and 747-8 shares engine commonality with their 787s and type rating with their 744s. UA on the other hand in essence was he guiding force in designing 777. It's not yet clear what their strategy going forward will be, but 744 services routes where smaller aircraft could certainly be effective. Ultimately though, UA has shown an interest in frequency in most of its major markets, and A380 just seems too big.

Quoting Danny (Reply 12):
Quoting SEPilot (Reply 10):
My scepticism is based on the fact that both are getting rid of 747's.

Many carriers are getting rid of 747 as this 40 year old design has become obsolete. SQ is doing that as well and looking at short term one could claim that SQ is replacing 744 with 773 but if you look at the whole picture it looks very different.

JAL and ANA are getting rid of 747 because they want smaller, more efficient and modern aircraft. It's not about all of a sudden this design isn't modern anymore, I mean they are just now completely phasing out their 747 classics. Some airlines are getting ride of their 744s because they are old, others because they are changing strategy, but 744 has very competitive performance still, so I'm not sure it being old is why it is being gotten rid of. 737 is even older in design and has the lowest operating costs in its class and is selling like hot cakes.

Quoting NA (Reply 27):
Without ordering A380s (or 748Is) Japanese Airlines won´t be really competitive on some routes where the fiercest opponents do.

How not? Their strategy is shifting away from selling tons of discounted Y seats to increasing yields and selling more premium product. They don't have to carry the most Y pax to be competitive. Being that Japanese airlines have higher costs than many of their competitors, they simply can't win competing in the low yield discount Y market, they know it, and they are focusing their efforts where they can do best, high yield, which generally means fewer seats.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 38):
But Leahy ain't French!

No, no, embarrassingly for the United States, he's one of ours.

Quoting BlackKnight (Reply 47):
Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 47):
Really? I don't know this - please explain

This is an insider view shared in certain circles. Short version.
Setup-
1)He has loads of talent for selling. He could sell anything really. Why then with all the companies in North America did he go to Airbus? There are more lucrative jobs in North America for his talent.
2) Where does he find the energy for such focused competition? I have seen extreme sports fans act better towards the competition than he does.
3) Somewhere in his history no matter how long ago, someone some where must have either caused him concern or told him he could not do something. The drive to win is so excessive that he is viewed as miss-speaking, over zealous, etc.
Why would you risk your reputation just to sell against your only competition?

Leahy is like the Donald Trump of selling big airplanes. He's obnoxious and loves attention. He says ridiculous things just to get his name in the news and to get attention. It's one strategy, not very refined or finessed, but a strategy. The Randy's at Boeing tend to use a more Steve Jobs style of sales, more low key, communicating through their blogs and fairly understated comments.

I'm never going to forget about Leahy claiming composites were dangerous and that 787 will merely catch up to A330. At this point, Leahy has been wrong in so many public predictions and statements that when he says something, i assume it won't happen.
 
cygnuschicago
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Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 4:45 am

Quoting BlackKnight (Reply 47):
1)He has loads of talent for selling. He could sell anything really. Why then with all the companies in North America did he go to Airbus? There are more lucrative jobs in North America for his talent.

I still don't see how you can say "American things leave a bad taste in his mouth"? To me, he seems just like many other Americans that work for major foreign companies. That doesn't mean they have a "bad taste" for American things, no?
 
widebodyphotog
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Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 4:46 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 34):
I think NH is taking a wait and see attitude, while JL is just not financially stable enough order A380s. Of the two, I would see JL as the more likely candidate, but I really don't see either of them deciding that a plane as large as the A380 makes sense when they are downsizing their 744s. Logically, going from "417" to "365" seats and then leaping to "555" doesn't make a lot of sense. If anything, the 748i would have a greater chance at JL, since it's only "467" seats.

Agreed for the most part but ANA while seeming to leave the door open is really not interested in the A380. JAL has no money and may not be able to finance additional large aircraft purchases for quite some time. With the current investments being made in NRT and HND the way forward is flexibility and frequency. Using smaller airplanes to go farther in greater numbers. Japanese aviation is not going the way of consolidating traffic lanes around larger aircraft.

The 747 may have future freighter orders from Japan but as a passenger aircraft I don't think so. As ANA looks to grow its cargo business rapidly they may look toward 777F of 748F and KZ is building their future business around the 748F. JAL? Again no money but they have 744's to convert.

Quoting Columba (Reply 45):
Now it is one year later, ANA will have learned some more facts about the A380 and had time to evaluate the aircraft. Airbus was in Japan twice presenting the aircraft. They would not have come a second time if they don't see any chance to win an order.
I don't say it will happen but I would not rule out an ANA order so quick as many here suggest.
The people at Airbus will know better than most of us here on a.net and saying that they are confident to win an order with a Japanese carrier is very different from the quoted Boeing statement to be in talks with 20 airlines.

I would rule ANA out...trust me. ANA has a potential requirement for a "New Large Type" that they will evaluate within the next 8 years or so, but jumping from their largest type by then, which will be 777-300ER, to the A380 is highly, highly unlikely. ANA is being very polite to the Airbus face while quietly phasing out their remaining Airbus aircraft and focusing on a growth model based on being a more flexible and dynamic airline. IMO Airbus is just spinning their wheels...



-widebodyphotog
 
jimyvr
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Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 5:03 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 50):
UA on the other hand in essence was he guiding force in designing 777

You forgot the fact that UA was among the team of 17 airlines that helped to create the early A3XX project
 
egnr
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Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 5:20 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 50):
So far as I know, A380s can't even service any of NW's main hubs (save NRT) and 747-8 shares engine commonality with their 787s

The 748 is only available with GE's Genex egnines. Northwest have selected the RR Trent 1000 to power its 787 fleet. link
 
MCIGuy
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Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 5:32 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
Many flag carriers ordering A380's and Boeing stretching its 747-8i didn't stop the theory.

Right, the 748 is a relatively cheap derivative 'cause Boeing didn't see the wisdom in an all-new VLA.  Wink

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
Stating Emirates & Qatar are "Upgaughing" from A330s to A380's is an equally skew intrepetation of facts.

Only the most optimistic don't see a HUGE overcapacity in the Gulf region coming soon.
 
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keesje
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Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 6:10 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 48):
77W is 365 seats
748i is 467 seats
A380 is 555 seats

I think anyone still using these seat counts does so with a determined goal.

The A380 has about 35% useable floor space. .

LH seatcount for both a380 & 748 confirm this (A380 seriously wider seats). No need to "Baseler" the seatcounts.

Quoting Widebodyphotog (Reply 52):
but jumping from their largest type by then, which will be 777-300ER, to the A380 is highly, highly unlikely

Maybe they won´t wait 8 years & the jump isn´t so big, maybe securing current market share?

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 48):
JL has only said they are not looking at the A380 at this time. I don't recall them ruling out the 748i, but I seem to recall NH doing just that...

I think you will be able to find sources pointing both ways. Most logical approach for any airline would be to leave the door open for anything, as confirmed by ANA´s CEO: http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...oor-open-for-a380-despite-777.html

[Edited 2007-06-05 23:12:53]
 
zvezda
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Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 6:12 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 56):
The A380 has about 35% useable floor space.

I don't believe that 65% of the WhaleJet's floor space is unusable.
 
Danny
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 6:15 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 41):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Are they planning on replacing 747s with 787s?

Yes.

Absolute rubbish.
 
spacecadet
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Oders For

Wed Jun 06, 2007 6:18 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 48):
I agree it is too large for NH, and it might be too large for JL, but not positive it is. NH has the one who's been much more vocal about the 77W being the largest plane they want to fly. JL has only said they are not looking at the A380 at this time. I don't recall them ruling out the 748i, but I seem to recall NH doing just that...

No company ever "rules out" anything. All they do is make decisions based on their current plans.

Even if they *say* they "rule out" something, that doesn't mean that the next day they can't announce an order of 100 planes of that type. These are not legally binding statements. Business decisions are guided by the best route to profitability, and that is constantly changing.

The fact of the matter is that there are several heavily traveled routes in Japan where frequency cannot practically be increased any further. This is something that's obviously difficult for Americans and Europeans to comprehend. How is one airline going to fly from Haneda to Sapporo more than 23 times per day? What are you going to have, departures every ten minutes? That opens up all sorts of logistical problems (gate space, ramp space, staffing, even things like having enough fueling and catering trucks available), and it gets to actually be more expensive at a certain point. (Not to mention it's impossible right now due to slot restrictions, which will continue to affect certain airports even after Haneda is opened up.)

Right now, both ANA and JAL are downsizing and by their own admission carrying fewer passengers on certain routes. It's not about increasing frequency, it's not about "doing more with less", it's just about doing less. The idea just being that they save more money than they lose through carrying fewer passengers, thereby improving profitability. But this is a relatively short term thing. I know when you're 16, five years might seem like a long time - but a five year plan is nothing. And these plans may change at any time.

At some point, both ANA and JAL will get out of cost-cutting mode and back into growth mode. This is the cycle of any mature business. There are plenty of passengers available for them to carry if they have the equipment available to do it. The only question is which plane is going to give them the overall best efficiency - in terms of cost per passenger, maintenance costs, airport compatibility, etc.

But eventually, they *will* be buying either the 747-8 or the A380. It's just a matter of when.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Oders For

Wed Jun 06, 2007 6:20 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):

I've seen this argument many times in recent years. 747 replaced by 773ER so the trend is getting smaller aircraft.

...and its the one which has been standing up to scrutiny... Wink

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):

Many flag carriers ordering A380's and Boeing stretching its 747-8i didn't stop the theory.

....how many of both have sold the past 7 years? Take the B748I LH order and the EK A380 order and you are basically left with nothing the past 7 years.....

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
The simple fact the 777-300ER was the next available biggest aircraft may somehow have played a role..

and even with the A380/B748I, sales of the B77W has not stopped one bit...add planes with better CASM, and the probability of A380/B748I sales go down even more...

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
Many 747's will be replaced by A380's from now on. Some not.

....I'm sure you meant "not too many 747's will be replaced by A380's"....... Wink

Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):
And he also added that Asian traffic is growing at a faster rate. I would be interested to know how mmuch Japanese traffic is growing by.

......intra-Asian traffic is going, so is "local" traffic at various Asian airports..however, it still doesn't mean there is a need for an A380 (or B748)

Quoting EI321 (Reply 28):
Quoting Travelin man (Reply 23):
Instead of hearing from the Airbus salesman (who will of course say the airlines are interested, much as a Boeing salesman would say the same thing), it would be interesting to hear from the actual Japanese airlines.

ANA commented a while back:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 8):
NH have said something along the lines of, they will wait until it enters service as they may need it to compete with other airlines that have it.

Sorry I dont have a link, but thats essentially what the ANA chief said in an interview a while ago. Personally Im not convinced that either JL or ANA will ever order the A380, and I dont think they were ever considered as likely customers.

...you are correct, NH did state something along those lines..but I too highly doubt NH will go for the A380 as mentioned for reasons above...
 
NYC777
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 6:25 am

This coming from the same people who said that a re-engined A332 could beat the 787!
 
na
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 6:33 am

Quoting Dallasnewark (Reply 28):
You think that a bigger plane makes you more competetive? Most of the flying public will not tell the difference between the plane types once they are inside the aircraft

Don´t underestimate the average passenger! You usually see it from the outside before you enter it, don´t you? Most people I know are not aviation enthusiasts still most of them know which aircraft they´ve flown on. Aviation still has some fascination to the wide public. I´m sure most people will prefer the A380 over a comparatively bland and anonymous 777 or A330. Someone I know who´s already flown on the A380 recently said to me the comfort of riding in it is superior to anything else, up to a standard that you almost don´t feel that you´re flying.
 
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keesje
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 6:40 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 60):
....how many of both have sold the past 7 years? Take the B748I LH order and the EK A380 order and you are basically left with nothing the past 7 years.....



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 60):
....I'm sure you meant "not too many 747's will be replaced by A380's".......

Jacobin777, I tried to reread carefully but still don´t know what you mean about VLA orders during the last 7 yrs?



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 60):
...you are correct, NH did state something along those lines

Now (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...oor-open-for-a380-despite-777.html
) why would any airline do such a thing?
 
jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders Fo

Wed Jun 06, 2007 7:32 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 50):
At this point, Leahy has been wrong in so many public predictions and statements that when he says something, i assume it won't happen.

 checkmark 

I'll give him some credit, but I don't think he's "brilliant" even one bit.....he's sold phenomenal planes which have practically sold for themselves...'ell, even I could have sold those A330's, A32X's..  biggrin 

....look at his recent performances the past few years...besides the aforementioned A330 and A32X sales, sales have been terrible because Airbus has not had a decent competing plane....

Quoting Keesje (Reply 63):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 60):
....I'm sure you meant "not too many 747's will be replaced by A380's".......

Jacobin777, I tried to reread carefully but still don�t know what you mean about VLA orders during the last 7 yrs?

...sure the QFs, SQ's and some other carriers are replacing their B747s with A380's..but > 1500 B747's have been sold and how many A380's have been sold? Like I said, I highly doubt Airbus will sell 350-400 frames....maybe even only 300 frames.....take the 442 B744's + 6 B744ERF's for a total of 448 B744 frames..again, not close...50% B744 replacements would be 224 A380 frames....
 
aerokiwi
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:05 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 8):
NH have said something along the lines of, they will wait until it enters service as they may need it to compete with other airlines that have it.

According to ANA's fleet plans for the next ten years, it wil be a 737, 787 and 777 fleet. That is the only concrete official announcement I have seen from ANA on its fleet plans.

Quoting Danny (Reply 12):
Many carriers are getting rid of 747 as this 40 year old design has become obsolete.

Yet they are still purchasing the 40 year old 737 design in droves. Not much of an argument huh?

Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):
Can somebody answer this?

See above. ANA's current fleet plan (up to about 2014 I think) is for 77Ws to replace 744s. That is the only thing ever officially announced by ANA in its annual reports. Sorry I don't have the link at the moment, but that's pretty much it for the enxt ten years.
 
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keesje
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:09 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 64):
....look at his recent performances the past few years...besides the aforementioned A330 and A32X sales, sales have been terrible because Airbus has not had a decent competing plane....

Again Jacobin777, I think we are looking at different realities. Airbus has had its problems last year. The US media endlessly keeps repeating & summing it up at virtually any article involving Airbus. This could lead to people starting to get the impression nothing is going right.

The contrary is reality. During the past few yrs Airbus got record orders & became #1 aircraft producer. Maybe that´s the reason the press is so agressive towards Airbus?





Jacobin777: 1500 B747's have been sold and how many A380's have been sold?

Now come on Jacobin777, shouldn´t we also wait for 40yrs (2039) to make that comparison?

I will let you go now, I need some sleep  

[Edited 2007-06-06 01:18:02]
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders Fo

Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:00 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Are they planning on replacing 747s with 787s?



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 41):
Yes.



Quoting Danny (Reply 58):
Absolute rubbish.

JL and NH bought 787-3s to replace 747-400Ds (obviously not on a one-for-one basis). Get over it.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 64):
the QFs, SQ's and some other carriers are replacing their B747s with A380's.

WhaleJet customers are replacing only a fraction of their 747-400s with WhaleJets. For example, SQ are replacing 19 of their 42 747-400s with WhaleJets. The rest are being (or have been) replaced with 777-300(ER)s. LH are replacing 15 of their 30 747-400s with WhaleJets. QF are replacing 20 of their 34 747s with WhaleJets. The rest are being replaced by 787s.
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:34 am

Its funny how "just a few more years" will prove the A380 the champion of the world... While ignoring that the 747 is outselling the A380 since the A380 was offered to the market till today. Or that the 747 market has been trending DOWN for a good long while as more and more smaller planes match or beat 747 range.

THERE IS NOTHING IN THE MARKET THAT WILL CREATE A SUDDEN SURGE OF ORDERS FOR THE WHALEJET.

Get that simple fact hammered into your heads people. The sales basis for the A380 to this point is that for the cost of a 777 or 747 frame Airbus is willing to give you a A380... or even less for some operators. If Airbus follows its plan to raise the cost of the A380 in real contracted prices, then where does it leave them? I know if I was BA, Airbus asking for more than Boeing is asking for a 748 would cause me to simply round file the A380 offer. For current 747 operators the 748 is a lower risk, lower cost option that offers comparable service economics on the CASM front. Coupled with far lower trip cost, and not needing to spend the money to deal with an entirely new plane type, its just too easy to default to the 748.

But we are not seeing that even? Why? Well most airlines are in dire need of MIDSIZE frames, and they only have so much money. So the 787/A330 is simply vacuuming up huge amounts of money, thus taking it away from potential VLA orders.

Even worse for the VLA class, what happened in the next decade when thousands and thousands of Narrowbody frames MUST be replaced. The A320 is starting its cycle of replacement, 737 classics are needing to go sooner rather than later, MD-80's are nearly dead, etc. Will anyone have money to deal with VLA replacement? Mind you you can't even go to leasing companies since we have seen just how unprofitable the class must be to them with that epic ILFC order to nowhere as they can't find customers, and the blank on the 748I side as far as leasing.
 
Buddys747
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:04 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 12):
Many carriers are getting rid of 747 as this 40 year old design has become obsolete

What? It can't be too obsolete since there are still orders coming in. Yes they are not being replaced 1 for 1 anymore, but it is far from obsolete. Timing means a lot also, the 744 did quite well in sales, however now you have more VLA options (77W/380), but the 748i will still be in the mix with the A380, just like the A34X with the 77W.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders Fo

Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:09 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 66):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 64):
....look at his recent performances the past few years...besides the aforementioned A330 and A32X sales, sales have been terrible because Airbus has not had a decent competing plane....

Again Jacobin777, I think we are looking at different realities. Airbus has had its problems last year. The US media endlessly keeps repeating & summing it up at virtually any article involving Airbus. This could lead to people starting to get the impression nothing is going right.

.....there can only be one reality my friend....sales for the A340NG have practically dried up while B77W/B77F sales have been phenomenal. Not to mention, as Zvezda has stated in another thread, count the number of A380 sales since launch and the amount of A380 sales the past 4-5 years....

..apropos..it has nothing to do with where the media is located..it has to do with reality... Wink

Quoting Keesje (Reply 66):
The contrary is reality. During the past few yrs Airbus got record orders & became #1 aircraft producer. Maybe that´s the reason the press is so agressive towards Airbus?

...and that is a "backwards looking" statement-the assembly lines will depend on future orders, of which there practically isn't any for the A340NG  no .........the press is aggressive towards Airbus because of the hubris, stupidity and denial of Airbus management, not to mention the billions of  dollarsign  lost on the A380 project...and to add insult to injury, a drubbing of EADS stock....maybe those are a few reasons as to why the press is aggressive towards Airbus... Wink

Quoting Keesje (Reply 66):
Jacobin777: 1500 B747's have been sold and how many A380's have been sold?

Now come on Jacobin777, shouldn´t we also wait for 40yrs (2039) to make that comparison?

I will let you go now, I need some sleep

no..we need not to wait 40 years, the A380 program doesn't have that luxury of time for a decent ROI (which it wont' regardless IMHO)

.....sweet dreams my friend of 10's of A380's lining up LHR simultaneously... Wink

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 67):

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 64):
the QFs, SQ's and some other carriers are replacing their B747s with A380's.

WhaleJet customers are replacing only a fraction of their 747-400s with WhaleJets. For example, SQ are replacing 19 of their 42 747-400s with WhaleJets. The rest are being (or have been) replaced with 777-300(ER)s. LH are replacing 15 of their 30 747-400s with WhaleJets. QF are replacing 20 of their 34 747s with WhaleJets. The rest are being replaced by 787s.

....you could have posted the other part of my statement...... Smile

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 64):
.. I highly doubt Airbus will sell 350-400 frames....maybe even only 300 frames......
 
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centrair
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:28 am

I usually stay very clear of these debates but I want to share my opinion.

NH though they have said they are going 100% Boeing and will be removing the 747 from pax service has not shut the door on the A380 or 748i. In a ATW article last year the president of NH stated that if the A380 becomes a competative product to have they will look at purchasing some. But they would only order a handful if they did.

Let's look at the Japanese market.

20 years ago
NRT was the only major international airport for Japan. FUK, NGO and ITM were only handling a small percent of international flights and most were regional. Everything went through Tokyo. 747s were NECCESSARY to carry the traffic from around the world to Japan.

15 years ago
KIX opens allowing international carriers access to the second largest city. Airport has 24 hr ops, lower landing fees and can link passengers to other parts of Japan. Large planes are still needed but there are few other options with range. As time goes on passengers in western Japan are feeding through KIX over NRT. This reduced (by a small percent) the number of total passengers transfering in NRT.

4 years ago
NGO opens allowing yet another option for access to Japan. NGO is a business center with potential for cargo and high yield traffic. Airport has the lowest fees in Japan (was pushed by IATA to go free or lower but didn't) and 24 hour ops. The location is between Tokyo and Osaka. Unlike Osaka, Nagoya closed the old airport to anything with more than 50 seats forcing 99% of domestic flights to the new airport. This allows people from almost all parts of Japan easy and convenient connections to International flights. NGO just posted profit for the 2nd year and is ahead of its 5 year plan to be profitable and paid off. (beating KIX big time). It is seeing good growth and is constantly courting new carriers for service. This will further eat away at NRT.

So what does this mean...
You don't need so many 747 and larger planes anymore to feed Japan. NH and JL can build up KIX or NGO or even FUK and CTS and fracture the numbers going through NRT. In this same way foreign carriers can use smaller planes with good range and cargo and start new routes to airports outside of NRT. With feed from HND or NRT even Tokyo residents will even fly through another airport to get to their final destination.

Another regional factor
The ICN factor. It was studied recently that Japanese traveling to Europe or North America living in Kyushu or Okinawa can fly to ICN and then to their final destination cheaper than flying through NRT, KIX or NGO. The connections are just as good with OZ and KE serving many smaller airports all over Japan and often cheaper. ICN is pulling Japanese traffic especiall for Asia and Europe. KE serves more destinations in North America and Europe than JL or NH. That is a big deal.

Conclusion.
Traffic is fracturing in Japan. There are far more options for flying to/from Japan. NRT is Tokyo and is the largest city in Japan but NRT doesn't equal Japanse traffic. It has represented the largest O&D and most popular destination. I saw a thing on TV where they were promoting for Tokyo peole to fly out of NGO! (It was paid by EK) We are getting more and more Tohoku and Hokkaido traffic. Western Japan and even some parts of Tohoku are filtering through ICN.

More carriers will enter the market and cause more fracturing. Look at NRT-LHR now. Both slot constrained NH goes between a 773ER and a 744, JL flies a 773ER, BA lies double daily 744 and VS flies an A346. Demand might just not be there. Not to mention people can fly any number of European carriers and transfer. AY gets good business this way.

AF announced they would use the A380 into NRT. Current traffic on this route: AF= Daily 77W, 2x 772, 3x A343 NH =Daily 744, JL=Daily 773, 3x 772. AF also announced it will reduce frequencies into NRT (most likely the A343 flight) So they are essentially combining two flights into one.

But traffic is fracturing in the country and region. NH has been rumored to be looking to expand NGO with connection flights to NRT or even HND. JL stated they will reinstate many dropped routes from KIX and NGO with 787s thus not having to feed traffic back through NRT. CTS and FUK lost lots of international routes due to the SARs scare and 9/11 and could get more back. Can't fly anything larger than a 772 out of those places and be profitable.

This fracturing of the Japanese market makes any purchase of the A380 or even the 748i a big IF. But again...

Quote:
Yamamoto is not ruling out the 747-8 Intercontinental or A380 for international operations: "We'll see what effect the A380 has on our competitiveness." Star partners Singapore Airlines and Lufthansa, along with Qantas, plan to operate the A380 to Narita.

All New Airline (Air Transport World, October 2006, p.32)
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:37 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 70):
.....sweet dreams my friend of 10's of A380's lining up LHR simultaneously...

It might happen given that there is definitely a group of slots that the airlines desire more than others for thier international flights. Couple that with the possiblity that LHR might REQUIRE A380 operators to cluster thier operations or face being charged for the larger hole they cut in the flow of traffic... might lead to A380 rush hours when a whole bunch all line up to leave at once. Not like the days of the 747's golden era, but one where you can get 3 or 4 different carrier A380's in one shot.
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2620
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:03 pm

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 36):

Simple statement, but of course all of us wouldn't be having this argument.
Welcome to my RU List.

Quoting Danny (Reply 58):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 41):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Are they planning on replacing 747s with 787s?

Yes.

Absolute rubbish.

Ask JL what's going to replace a dozen or so 747 classics & 744s with only a handful of 77Ws and loads of 763ER or 787s coming on-line the next few years.

Quoting Spacecadet (Reply 59):
At some point, both ANA and JAL will get out of cost-cutting mode and back into growth mode.



Quoting Centrair (Reply 71):
20 years ago
NRT was the only major international airport for Japan. FUK, NGO and ITM were only handling a small percent of international flights and most were regional. Everything went through Tokyo. 747s were NECCESSARY to carry the traffic from around the world to Japan.

Remeber the only plane with range back then was also the 747.
Good analysis, however the long-haul market out of Japan is not fracturing but going in the opposite direction.
Look at all the long-haul flights that have disappeared from FUK, NGO & KIX since the 1990s.

Here's a different angle on the A380 visit to Japan.
The only party really benefiting from this trip is the NAA due to the high landing fees Airbus has to pay to fly that thing here, while the execs at NH & JL take a day off to enjoy Airbus's free service.
 
glacote
Posts: 357
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 2:50 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
..then why are they downguaging planes to a B773ER on two of the most slot-restricted airport pairs in the world?

Isn't the B773ER just a more cost-effective solution given the current price of oil?
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 3:18 pm

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 72):

It might happen given that there is definitely a group of slots that the airlines desire more than others for thier international flights. Couple that with the possiblity that LHR might REQUIRE A380 operators to cluster thier operations or face being charged for the larger hole they cut in the flow of traffic... might lead to A380 rush hours when a whole bunch all line up to leave at once. Not like the days of the 747's golden era, but one where you can get 3 or 4 different carrier A380's in one shot.

....I would say the early morning slots might be a possibility with all of the B744's coming it..but I still don't see 10 in a row as a possibility...certainly 3-4 as you mentioned.....

Quoting Glacote (Reply 74):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
..then why are they downguaging planes to a B773ER on two of the most slot-restricted airport pairs in the world?

Isn't the B773ER just a more cost-effective solution given the current price of oil?

...the B744 is still one of the most cost-effective planes out there...certainly for JL and NH....however, both of the aforementioned carriers would rather increase their RASM and yield and let the "backpackers" fly on other carriers...
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 3:18 pm

Quoting Glacote (Reply 74):
Isn't the B773ER just a more cost-effective solution given the current price of oil?

The 777-300ER allows them to concentrate on the higher yield passengers and minimize their risk.
 
EI321
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:33 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 44):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Are they planning on replacing 747s with 787s?

Yes.

Perhaps I should rephrase for the context of this thread.

Apart from the 747 Domestic, are they planning on replacing 747's with 787s.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 48):
77W is 365 seats
748i is 467 seats
A380 is 555 seats

The A380 is now regarded as a 525 seat aircraft, which in theory will also increase revenue cargo as per your point. I'll just have to take you word for it that 476 is realistic for the 748  no  . Lufthansa dont seem to realise this, since they can only manage 410 in a 748i Vs 549 in their A380s.
 
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Stitch
Posts: 27720
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:38 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 77):
Lufthansa dont seem to realise this, since they can only manage 410 in a 748i Vs 549 in their A380s.

LH may be trading capacity for range to allow their 748s to fly longer stage lengths then the "trunk route" A388s. Especially since LH wanted the longer 748 model so they could fit more seats, perhaps they intend to make the 748s a more premium-cabin heavy configuration (ala BA) and use the A388s in a higher-density Economy config to knock down the CASM and per-seat trip-costs.
 
EI321
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:16 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 78):
LH may be trading capacity for range to allow their 748s to fly longer stage lengths then the "trunk route" A388s.

I doubt it. The 747-8 has more range than the 747-400, A340-300 and A340-600.

Ranges (fully loaded):
747-800 / 474 passengers / 8,000 nm
747-400 / 416 passengers / 7,260 nm
340-600 / 380 passengers / 7,900 nm
340-300 / 295 passengers / 7,400 nm

Lufthansa's longest scheduled flight is currently its Frankfurt-Buenos Aires at 7,450 miles approx.
 
JoFMO
Posts: 1840
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:33 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 79):
Lufthansa's longest scheduled flight is currently its Frankfurt-Buenos Aires at 7,450 miles approx.

It is not nonstop anymore. Since one year they hae a stop-over in GRU.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27720
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:35 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 79):
I doubt it. The 747-8 has more range than the 747-400, A340-300 and A340-600.

Then maybe it is door #2.

On the flip side, it does help explain why the A388 has a half-cent lower seat cost per kilometer then the 748 since it carries 25% less people in LH's config...
 
columba
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:37 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 78):
LH may be trading capacity for range to allow their 748s to fly longer stage lengths then the "trunk route" A388s. Especially since LH wanted the longer 748 model so they could fit more seats, perhaps they intend to make the 748s a more premium-cabin heavy configuration (ala BA) and use the A388s in a higher-density Economy config to knock down the CASM and per-seat trip-costs

Could be one possibilty.
 
congaboy
Posts: 258
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:08 pm

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 20):
One of the things the Japanese are very good at is to make you feel very welcomed - they talk positive and agree wih whatever you say - despite they might be cursing you deep down in their heart and never return your calls afterwards...

Anyone who has done business with the Japanese see this very polite approach, as Cloudyapple says...this is spot on, and I believe Airbus is reading a more positive situation than what meets their eye. As someone who has sold products to the Japanese, you dont see anything concrete until they begin talking about time frames, product specs, and when the pleasantry turns into a very serious dialogue. This seems to be more Airbus marketing at work. As you have all pointed out above, they may seem interested, but from a business perspective, the A380 doesnt make sense yet for Japanese carriers. Its easy to misinterpret the Japanese hospitality into genuine interest.
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:23 pm

Quoting Congaboy (Reply 83):
the A380 doesnt make sense yet for Japanese carriers.

I think the timeline runs in the other direction. Prior to the opening of KIX, the WhaleJet would have been good for JL and NH. Now, with both KIX and NGO taking a lot of the pressure off NRT, the second NRT runway, and the fourth HND runway, the opportunity is gone forever.
 
Poitin
Posts: 2651
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:30 pm

Quoting Congaboy (Reply 83):
Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 20):
One of the things the Japanese are very good at is to make you feel very welcomed - they talk positive and agree wih whatever you say - despite they might be cursing you deep down in their heart and never return your calls afterwards...

Anyone who has done business with the Japanese see this very polite approach, as Cloudyapple says...this is spot on, and I believe Airbus is reading a more positive situation than what meets their eye. As someone who has sold products to the Japanese, you dont see anything concrete until they begin talking about time frames, product specs, and when the pleasantry turns into a very serious dialogue

Very true. Everyone thinks the Japanese word "Hi" means "Yes". It really means "Yes, I heard your point." There is a old saying about dealing with the Japanese, "You have a deal when you have it signed." Congaboy, you obviously have more than a little experience with them.
 
na
Posts: 9877
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:38 pm

Quoting Aerokiwi (Reply 65):
According to ANA's fleet plans for the next ten years, it wil be a 737, 787 and 777 fleet.

I remember seeing an ANA-fleetplan that has the 777 as the interim solution, but in the longer term the flagship position is left open. Let´s see what happen´s when the A380 is flown to Tokio or Osaka by the competition. The Wow-effect of the A380 will put the 777 in the shade for sure, if the number of trunk-routes justifies a A380 fleet for ANA remains to be seen.
As for JAL, the current financial trouble dictates their fleet policy somewhat. I doubt that in the longterm they´ll be able to compete at the top without anything grander than the 777-300ER.
 
congaboy
Posts: 258
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2006 3:48 am

RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:43 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 84):
the opportunity is gone forever.

That's a long time, dude...but you certainly present a reasonable scenario in that the optimal time has passed. Which makes the Airbus statement even more unrealistic. From a marketing/sales perspective, you are always trying to emphasize positives, striving for that "perception is reality" line of thinking...and for that, I cannot fault them, they are just doing their jobs.
 
norcal
Posts: 1507
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:51 pm

Quoting NA (Reply 86):
Let´s see what happen´s when the A380 is flown to Tokio or Osaka by the competition. The Wow-effect of the A380 will put the 777 in the shade for sure, if the number of trunk-routes justifies a A380 fleet for ANA remains to be seen.

US carriers like DL, CO, and AA have been flying 777-200ERs against carriers with much larger 747-400s successfully. The wow factor doesn't really apply. A lot of carriers remember how much they regretted it when they bought 747s for prestige and couldn't fill them profitably (remember Pan Am?).

The A380 will be a novelty for awhile (it is a cool plane!) like the 747 was, but like any novelty it loses public interest. You don't buy a novelty and build a 10-20 year business plan around it. If the Japanese do end up buying the A380 it will be based off of careful market analysis and not just to have the biggest plane for prestige.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Thu Jun 07, 2007 12:17 am

Quoting Congaboy (Reply 87):
That's a long time, dude...

The future lasts a long time.
 
widebodyphotog
Posts: 885
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Thu Jun 07, 2007 12:21 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 76):
The 777-300ER allows them to concentrate on the higher yield passengers and minimize their risk.

Bingo!

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 84):
I think the timeline runs in the other direction. Prior to the opening of KIX, the WhaleJet would have been good for JL and NH. Now, with both KIX and NGO taking a lot of the pressure off NRT, the second NRT runway, and the fourth HND runway, the opportunity is gone forever.

Well said.

The relief valve airports have opened up and the fact of the matter is that as time goes on NRT will become a less and less prominent for the future of the Japanese carriers especially NH. From 2009 NH will fly several international routes from HND and have already moved the majority of freighter ops to NGO and KIX with its newly expanded facility. With the advent of 787 we may even see long haul international ops from HND by NH as it is much more attractive to the flying public in Japan to fly from HND. Few people enjoy the up to two hour trek out to NRT from the center of Tokyo or Yokohama to catch a morning flight to ORD, JFK, or IAD.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 56):
Maybe they won´t wait 8 years & the jump isn´t so big, maybe securing current market share?

They will wait because there is nothing on the horizon that will intervene in order for them to require such a huge jump in capacity in such a short time. In an ANA style configuration an A380 would be configured for 375-400 seats relative to their 247 seat 777-300ER's and 287 Seat 747-400's. That is a huge gap especially considering that the 747's will be gone in a year and a half. The only route that may demand that for a single daily long haul flight would be NRT-JFK-NRT and as it stands now that route may be developed with additional frequencies once the newly ordered 11th to 14th 777-300ERs arrive in the fleet.

NH is not worried about market share they are worried about profitability and maintain a flexible fleet and less elastic cost structure. The A380 does not fit into that model. The JD market is not expanding at all and the route to continued profitability is measured growth of the international passenger and cargo business. The A380 being an entirely new type and requiring and infrastructure that they neither have nor have plan to have is too large a risk to take when the fundamentals don't justify it.

To my mind the 747-8 passenger airplane is just as unlikely as as an A380 for NH. The dust has to settle around the 787 integration and phase out of 767 passenger airplanes before anything significant is done with the fleet. That will take about 6-7 years. After that they will take another measured approach to expansion if the market is there not giant leaps into what is basically at this point two unknown quantities.



widebodyphotog
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
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RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Thu Jun 07, 2007 12:29 am

Quoting NA (Reply 86):
The Wow-effect of the A380 will put the 777 in the shade for sure, if the number of trunk-routes justifies a A380 fleet for ANA remains to be seen.



Quoting NorCal (Reply 88):
The wow factor doesn't really apply.

"wow" factor lasts a few weeks, maybe a few months..if that.....
 
EI321
Posts: 5079
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Thu Jun 07, 2007 12:35 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 91):
Quoting NA (Reply 86):
The Wow-effect of the A380 will put the 777 in the shade for sure, if the number of trunk-routes justifies a A380 fleet for ANA remains to be seen.



Quoting NorCal (Reply 88):
The wow factor doesn't really apply.

"wow" factor lasts a few weeks, maybe a few months..if that.....

I dont believe the wow factor applies at all. Its just an after thought, once economics are out of the way.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Thu Jun 07, 2007 12:41 am

Quoting Widebodyphotog (Reply 90):
Bingo!



Quoting Widebodyphotog (Reply 90):
Well said.

Thank you for the kind words. Coming from you, that means a lot.

To put it another way, the Japanese market is one of the best examples of fragmentation.
 
Danny
Posts: 3753
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 3:44 am

RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Thu Jun 07, 2007 12:44 am

Quoting NorCal (Reply 88):
US carriers like DL, CO, and AA have been flying 777-200ERs against carriers with much larger 747-400s successfully.

How successful American carriers against competition is another debate however you need to notice that 777 is much newer and more efficient plane than 747. Now 777 against A380 will be quite a different story.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Thu Jun 07, 2007 12:53 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 94):
How successful American carriers against competition is another debate however you need to notice that 777 is much newer and more efficient plane than 747. Now 777 against A380 will be quite a different story.

No, the 747-400 is far more efficient (lower CASM) than the 777-200ER and a bit more efficient than the 777-300ER but didn't sell well against them because it was too big and hence RASM was too low. However, the 787-10 and A350-1000 will be more efficient than the WhaleJet. It's reasonable to expect the WhaleJet will have a much more difficult time selling against the 787-10 and the A350-1000 than the 747-400 had against the 777 because the WhaleJet won't have the efficiency advantage than the Jumbo had.
 
dallasnewark
Posts: 393
Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2005 4:33 pm

RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:01 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 94):
How successful American carriers against competition is another debate however you need to notice that 777 is much newer and more efficient plane than 747. Now 777 against A380 will be quite a different story.

Flying A380 will be inconvinient at best from several perspectives:

1. Boarding - Anyone who flown EWR-FRA on LH's 747 knows their notoriously long boarding times when everyone just boards at will, taking close to an hour. DFW - FRA is a bit better, but only because A340 is a smaller aircraft. Any A380 route to JFK/NYC would easily board over an hour, irritating the passengers

2. Baggage Claim. - About 45 minutes to an hour as well. More irritating passengers. There's nothing worse than staying at the carousel and see hundreds of bags pass by waiting for yours to come out

3. Novelty Factor - gone within 6 months. A380 will be just another plane with the only distinction that it would take forever to board/exit it and get your luggage after your trip.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:04 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 94):
Now 777 against A380 will be quite a different story.

....why?
 
norcal
Posts: 1507
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:44 am

RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:06 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 94):
How successful American carriers against competition is another debate however you need to notice that 777 is much newer and more efficient plane than 747. Now 777 against A380 will be quite a different story.

American carriers do very well on international routes. This is where they make all of their money, but they subsequently lose it while trying to compete in the cutthroat domestic markets. Take CO for example, they have the most international destinations of any US carrier and they are arguably doing the best out of all of them.

Both 747 and the A380 are more efficient than a 777 if you fill all the seats. However the problem is filling those seats with profitable passengers. When an airline cuts seats (i.e. fly smaller planes) they can keep ticket prices up by limiting the supply however if you have an A380 to fill the ticket prices have to fall since there are more seats to fill. (economics 101 supply vs. demand curves) As soon as widebody twins got the range to perform the 747 missions, 747 orders dried up. It had nothing to do with the the age or the efficiency of the 747. The 747 has the lowest CASM in the industry of any aircraft (the A380 will have the lowest CASM until the 787-10 and larger A350XWBs). It all had to do with finding the proper balance of RASM and CASM, which is why airlines are favoring small efficient jets with more frequencies.

There are other factors such as cargo to consider as well. An aircraft like the 777-300ER will have more cargo carrying capability than a 747 (and an A380?) which will help it generate more revenue as well. One of the downfalls of having a double decker aircraft is that you only have one deck of space for passenger bags and cargo.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:10 am

Quoting NorCal (Reply 99):
An aircraft like the 777-300ER will have more cargo carrying capability than a 747 (and an A380?) which will help it generate more revenue as well.

Yes, the WhaleJet has very poor cargo capacity. The passenger bags will fill much of the cargo hold.

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