Airbus Confident Of Winning Japanese Orders For 380

keesje · Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:50 pm

NARITA, Japan (XFN-ASIA) - Airbus is confident of winning orders for its A380 superjumbo from airlines in Japan, an official at the European aerospace firm said here.

An A380 took to the skies above Japan Tuesday with senior officials from Japanese carriers, Airbus's industrial partners and the government on board for a demonstration flight of the double-decker airplane.

'It was very positive. I am sure that we are going to succeed in selling this plane in Japan,' said Richard Carcaillet, marketing director for the A380, adding that the aircraft was 'made for Japan.'
....
Carcaillet insisted that the A380 interested Japanese airlines, saying they were studying the new plane.

The A380 development aircraft arrived at Narita International Airport near Tokyo on Monday. It will leave Japan on Wednesday for Sydney before heading to Taipei on Friday as part of a series of demonstration flights.

http://www.hemscott.com/news/latest-news/item.do?newsId=44770739292294

Numerous people argued JAL and ANA will probably never buy A380s.

I think in general claiming this for huge 747 operators doing hub operations from severly slot restricted airports it always somehow seems a risky pronoses..

2wingtips · Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:59 pm

Then why are both NH/JL reducing their 747 fleets and concentrating on frequency and higher yields with 777s and soon to be 787s. Bloody Airbus are confident about selling all their planes to anybody. After all the talk of new A380 customers, Gallois admitted today no new customers are likely until revenue service begins. Looks like BA will go with the 748I!

EI321 · Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:05 pm

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
Then why are both NH/JL reducing their 747 fleets and concentrating on frequency and higher yields with 777s and soon to be 787s

Are they planning on replacing 747s with 787s?

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
no new customers are likely until revenue service begins.

Thats very possible.

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
Looks like BA will go with the 748I!

Not exactly.

keesje · Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:14 pm

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
Bloody Airbus

Pls don't take it personal.

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
Gallois admitted today no new customers are likely until revenue service begins.

True, that is still several months away.

BA will order.. when?

SEPilot · Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:15 pm

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
Bloody Airbus are confident about selling all their planes to anybody.

I would say that Airbus execs are very talented at hearing what they want to hear, hence the A380 in the first place, plus not realizing until it was staring them in the face that they had SERIOUS problems on their hands building the darn thing. Pardon me if I believe it when the Japanese airlines order it.

Stitch · Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:35 pm

Well 20 years is a long time, so it would be prudent to "never say never". Also, it could be that a new Japanese start-up comes onto the scene in the next decade that, like IT, would take some A388s, even if NH and JL never do.

KL808 · Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:40 pm

In my opinion that if a Japanese carrier is to order A380's I think it would be NH.

Drew

airfrnt · Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:42 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):

Numerous people argued JAL and ANA will probably never buy A380s.

Including JAL and ANA themselves. They wobble now and then and look at it, but then usally make large 777 and 787 orders and tell people that the 744's are leaving the fleet.

EI321 · Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:45 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 4):
Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
Bloody Airbus are confident about selling all their planes to anybody.

I would say that Airbus execs are very talented at hearing what they want to hear

.......and many a.netters are very talented at believing what they want to believe Yeah sure

Quoting KL808 (Reply 6):
In my opinion that if a Japanese carrier is to order A380's I think it would be NH.

NH have said something along the lines of, they will wait until it enters service as they may need it to compete with other airlines that have it.

keesje · Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:46 pm

I think on the Pacific JAL, UA and NWA and the upcoming Chinese carriers are looking at what will happen.
They have no desire to spend billions on aircraft if they don't have to.

Europe - Japan is a different situation. It's not a question if but how many A380 will enter the Japanese market & what will be the consequences. Both JAL & ANA will take the necessary steps to defend their position. Both have communicated this.

Worldwide traffic is growing 5% per year. Asia even faster. You can't add half a flight daily to LHR..

[Edited 2007-06-05 17:00:01]

SEPilot · Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:57 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
Europe - Japan is a diffrent situation. It's not a question if but how many A380 will enter the Japanese market & what will be the consequences. Both AJL & ANA will take the neccesary steps to defend their position. Both have communicated this.

Worldwide traffic is growing 5% per year. Asia even faster. You can't add half a flight daily to LHR..

Very true; and if the traffic and economics warrant it they will probably both buy them. My scepticism is based on the fact that both are getting rid of 747's. But things certainly can change.

jacobin777 · Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:01 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):

Worldwide traffic is growing 5% per year

..and not in every airport or destination..you always conveniently drop that fact...

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
Europe - Japan is a diffrent situation. It's not a question if but how many A380 will enter the Japanese market & what will be the consequences. Both AJL & ANA will take the neccesary steps to defend their position. Both have communicated this.

..then why are they downguaging planes to a B773ER on two of the most slot-restricted airport pairs in the world?

Danny · Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:07 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 10):
My scepticism is based on the fact that both are getting rid of 747's.

Many carriers are getting rid of 747 as this 40 year old design has become obsolete. SQ is doing that as well and looking at short term one could claim that SQ is replacing 744 with 773 but if you look at the whole picture it looks very different.

jacobin777 · Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:14 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 12):
Many carriers are getting rid of 747 as this 40 year old design has become obsolete.

..that argument doesn't hold up because neither VLA's are gathering too many orders...and the A380 has an added problem (for now at least) of not offering a freighter version...

keesje · Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:14 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
..then why are they downguaging planes to a B773ER on two of the most slot-restricted airport pairs in the world?

I've seen this argument many times in recent years. 747 replaced by 773ER so the trend is getting smaller aircraft.

Many flag carriers ordering A380's and Boeing stretching its 747-8i didn't stop the theory.

The simple fact the 777-300ER was the next available biggest aircraft may somehow have played a role..

Probably no "downguaging", airlines couldn't buy anything else but 773 or A346 to replace 747s..

Many 747's will be replaced by A380's from now on. Some not.

Stating Emirates & Qatar are "Upgaughing" from A330s to A380's is an equally skew intrepetation of facts.

[Edited 2007-06-05 17:19:36]

jimyvr · Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:15 am

Keep in mind that when Haneda Airport opens its 4th runway in 2010, it opens up at least 300000 annual slots ( I think that's the number). That eases the slot problem. It also opens up to more short-haul flights which will be expected to be transferred from Narita, that will also help to ease the slot congestion in Tokyo.

While NRT slots are critical to foreign carriers thus seeing the need of sending A380, the Japanese carriers don't really have the pressure.

EI321 · Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:17 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 1):
Then why are both NH/JL reducing their 747 fleets and concentrating on frequency and higher yields with 777s and soon to be 787s

Are they planning on replacing 747s with 787s?

Can somebody answer this?

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):

Worldwide traffic is growing 5% per year

..and not in every airport or destination..you always conveniently drop that fact...

And he also added that Asian traffic is growing at a faster rate. I would be interested to know how mmuch Japanese traffic is growing by.

Quoting Danny (Reply 12):
Quoting SEPilot (Reply 10):
My scepticism is based on the fact that both are getting rid of 747's.

Many carriers are getting rid of 747 as this 40 year old design has become obsolete.

Apart from that, I think that the lower cost per seat of the 777-300ER is very attractive. I dont believe that airlines like JL & NH are replacing 747s with 773s because they are unable to fill the 747s, especially with traffic rising year on year.

keesje · Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:24 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 12):
SQ is doing that as well and looking at short term one could claim that SQ is replacing 744 with 773 but if you look at the whole picture it looks very different.

I think SQ has the size and purchasing power to make a fleet composition that fits all there regional and internation network ambitions. It's not an A or B. In the next 10 yrs the SQ fleet will consist of 787, a350, 747s, a380, 777's, a330 each fullfilling specific network requirements.

ikramerica · Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:35 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
You can't add half a flight daily to LHR.

True, but they seem to be okay with dropping 1/2 a flight and going to high premium 77W aircraft.

Unless someone can show a compelling financial reason to use a high Y + decreased cargo A380 to a route other than LHR, I'll still stick with the fact this is AIRBUS saying this, and not JL and NH. After all, Boeing has said that 20 customers are interested in the 748i. Hasn't happened yet...

NRT is restricted, but NH and JL have most of the slots there. As Haneda expands, the need for more slots at NRT decreases, and since many airports in Japan have or are looking to ban quads, the A380 would have a very, very limited role for a Japanese carrier.

keesje · Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:38 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 18):
NRT is restricted, but NH and JL have most of the slots there. As Haneda expands, the need for more slots at NRT decreases, and since many airports in Japan have or are looking to ban quads, the A380 would have a very, very limited role for a Japanese carrier.

? An 380 is more quiet then a 777. Or does it have nothing to do with noise?

cloudyapple · Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:41 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
n A380 took to the skies above Japan Tuesday with senior officials from Japanese carriers, Airbus's industrial partners and the government on board for a demonstration flight of the double-decker airplane.

'It was very positive. I am sure that we are going to succeed in selling this plane in Japan,' said Richard Carcaillet, marketing director for the A380, adding that the aircraft was 'made for Japan.'

One of the things the Japanese are very good at is to make you feel very welcomed - they talk positive and agree wih whatever you say - despite they might be cursing you deep down in their heart and never return your calls afterwards...

travelin man · Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:55 am

Instead of hearing from the Airbus salesman (who will of course say the airlines are interested, much as a Boeing salesman would say the same thing), it would be interesting to hear from the actual Japanese airlines.

DAYflyer · Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:59 am

Of course they like it. What's not to like? It's a very big, nice, advanced, new airplane. The question remains, do they see a use for it?? Just because I like shiny new 18 wheelers doesn't mean I will go out and buy some without a plan for using them.

dallasnewark · Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:19 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
Europe - Japan is a different situation. It's not a question if but how many A380 will enter the Japanese market & what will be the consequences. Both JAL & ANA will take the necessary steps to defend their position. Both have communicated this.

And both JAL and ANA will fly 5 times daily between NRT-AMS.

Holland will finally win the world cup.

Keesje would be made the COO of EADS.

Dude, come out of the fantasy world of yours. Can you let it go even once when someone pointed out correctly that the Airbus salesman's quote was a hogwash. Boeing's salespeople aren't better either, they make unrealistic predictions as well, but come on, or do you think it is your duty to defend every moronic statement the aircraft manufacturer states

flysherwood · Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:21 am

Quoting Travelin man (Reply 23):
Instead of hearing from the Airbus salesman (who will of course say the airlines are interested, much as a Boeing salesman would say the same thing), it would be interesting to hear from the actual Japanese airlines

Some on this forum don't want to bother with that little thing like"...what do the airlines have to say?..." I mean, you know John Leahy can walk on water, can't he? Wink

The Japanese airlines have already stated that they PLAN to use 773ER's and 787's for the near future. Unlike others in the industry, NH and JAL usually plan 10 to 20 years from now. They are not very flexible. That is why it has taken JAL so long to get out of the spin that it found itself in! What should it tell you when the LARGEST operator of the 747 has said it does not plan to order anymore VLA's in the near future? Yeah sure

EI321 · Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:21 am

Quoting Travelin man (Reply 23):
Instead of hearing from the Airbus salesman (who will of course say the airlines are interested, much as a Boeing salesman would say the same thing), it would be interesting to hear from the actual Japanese airlines.

ANA commented a while back:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 8):
NH have said something along the lines of, they will wait until it enters service as they may need it to compete with other airlines that have it.

Sorry I dont have a link, but thats essentially what the ANA chief said in an interview a while ago. Personally Im not convinced that either JL or ANA will ever order the A380, and I dont think they were ever considered as likely customers.

blackknight · Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:27 am

Japan is far different from the EU. Japan can still build new airports in the mist of environmental concerns while the EU can not. Japan and China have demonstrated that off shore airports can work and with their learned knowledge can become more cost effective. Airlines in this sector have to be cautious, if slot restriction becomes endless as in the EU then the A380 will gain orders, but if new runways and new airports along with faster trains and transportation comes on line. the A380 will be a visitor only.

Perssonally I think they are negotiating for 747-8's by letting Boeing know they may go A380. Airbus may be just playing the role of reducing boeing's profit.

na · Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:29 am

Without ordering A380s (or 748Is) Japanese Airlines won´t be really competitive on some routes where the fiercest opponents do.

dallasnewark · Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:32 am

Quoting NA (Reply 30):
Without ordering A380s (or 748Is) Japanese Airlines won´t be really competitive on some routes where the fiercest opponents do.

You think that a bigger plane makes you more competetive? Most of the flying public will not tell the difference between the plane types once they are inside the aircraft

travelin man · Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:33 am

Quoting NA (Reply 30):
Without ordering A380s (or 748Is) Japanese Airlines won´t be really competitive on some routes where the fiercest opponents do.

Disagree. If the sizes of the Premium cabins are similar, and the Japanese carriers are just giving up seats at the "back of the bus", the Japanese carriers will be very competitive. Bigger does not necessarily mean "more competitive". (Although from reading your comments re: the 777 Na, I understand you detest that airplane and love the 4-holers....)

ikramerica · Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:35 am

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 21):
One of the things the Japanese are very good at is to make you feel very welcomed - they talk positive and agree wih whatever you say - despite they might be cursing you deep down in their heart and never return your calls afterwards...

Tell me about it. I was "invited" to tour an animation company in Japan. I brought the requisite gifts and was given a very nice tour by the vice-president of the company after meeting the president.

Afterward, they did not respond to follow-up contact, even the initial thank you. Very culturally different than in the USA, where you'd at least get a "thanks for coming" before they ignored you... Wink

Quoting Keesje (Reply 20):
? An 380 is more quiet then a 777. Or does it have nothing to do with noise?

It does, but the politicians seemed to equate 4 holes with more noise, thus the rules are about engines AND noise.

Anyway, Airbus has even pulled back from saying the A380 is the quietest airliner, now saying it is one of the quietest commercial jets. It's in that article you posted yesterday at least...

dallasnewark · Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:41 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 33):
Tell me about it. I was "invited" to tour an animation company in Japan. I brought the requisite gifts and was given a very nice tour by the vice-president of the company after meeting the president.

Afterward, they did not respond to follow-up contact, even the initial thank you. Very culturally different than in the USA, where you'd at least get a "thanks for coming" before they ignored you...

If I may add, loyalty is more improtant to them than a savings of a few bucks here there, that is just part of the culture.
Knowing that, Airbus' chances of securing an order wil JAL and ANA are very slim

DAYflyer · Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:49 am

Quoting Dallasnewark (Reply 34):
If I may add, loyalty is more improtant to them than a savings of a few bucks here there, that is just part of the culture.
Knowing that, Airbus' chances of securing an order wil JAL and ANA are very slim

Knowing this, how can they (Airbus) ever build any brand loyalty if nobody buys it? Sounds like a cultural catch 22.

jimyvr · Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:54 am

Quoting NA (Reply 30):
Without ordering A380s (or 748Is) Japanese Airlines won´t be really competitive on some routes where the fiercest opponents do.

Competitive on what level? Japanese carriers are pretty much focusing on yield control rather than capacity control.

ikramerica · Wed Jun 06, 2007 2:02 am

Quoting Jimyvr (Reply 36):
Competitive on what level? Japanese carriers are pretty much focusing on yield control rather than capacity control.

Not to mention the extra $75 million book cost of each A380 vs. 77W, and the likely higher resale value (as a percentage) of the 77W vs. the A380.

I think NH is taking a wait and see attitude, while JL is just not financially stable enough order A380s. Of the two, I would see JL as the more likely candidate, but I really don't see either of them deciding that a plane as large as the A380 makes sense when they are downsizing their 744s. Logically, going from "417" to "365" seats and then leaping to "555" doesn't make a lot of sense. If anything, the 748i would have a greater chance at JL, since it's only "467" seats.

EI321 · Wed Jun 06, 2007 2:20 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 37):
Not to mention the extra $75 million book cost of each A380 vs. 77W

The book cost of a 77W:
$640,000 per seat (375 seats** @ $240m)

The book cost of an A380:
$561,000 per seat (525 seats @ $296m)

The book cost of a 747-8:
$670,000 per seat (410 seats* @ $275m)

Does the 77W have higher revenue potential aswell as higher book price per seat?

This is before even looking at operating costs per seat.

*474 is nowhere near realistic for the 747-8, unless you believe that an aircraft with about 40% more floor space can only fit in 10% more seats.

**I assume 375 to be a proportionally realistic figure when comparing the 77W & A380.

[Edited 2007-06-05 19:44:45]

solnabo · Wed Jun 06, 2007 2:35 am

What utter nonsens!

JAL n ANA will never ever order the A380 Pax or Freighter

That would be a big blow to Boeing and 748I and no one want that to happend, right?

Micke// Wink

don · Wed Jun 06, 2007 2:42 am

Probably a classic case of double "Lost in Translation" , French guy speking in English to Japanese buyers. And having worked in Japan for many years they never say an absolute "No" to anyone face to face.

EI321 · Wed Jun 06, 2007 2:46 am

Quoting Don (Reply 40):
French guy speking in English to Japanese buyers. And having worked in Japan for many years they never say an absolute "No" to anyone face to face.

But Leahy ain't French!

[Edited 2007-06-05 19:47:23]

ikramerica · Wed Jun 06, 2007 2:53 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 38):
The book cost of a 77W is $640,000 per seat (375 seats** @ $240m) Vs A380 at $561,000 per seat ($296m @ 525 seats

The A380 is $317 million now, at least that's the quote in recent articles about the aircraft. $275 million is a very old number. Airbus was cited last year as saying it was $300 million, and that's last year. The 77W is $237-264 according to Boeing. So the A380 is $50-75 million more. The 748i is $273-283 million.

Further, book price "per seat" is one metric, but if you can't fill the seats, or fill them with low yield traffic, it isn't the best measure. If a 77W is filling all of it's 300 real seats, but the A380 is only filly 400 of it's 500 real seats, then the real "cost per seat" is not so great. Or if both have the same number of premium seats, but the A380 has 200 extra Y seats, it's also not the best metric (see AF for a situation close to this...).

Further, you ignore cargo, and the 77W has more cargo space and much more usable space after baggage.

And ultimately, unless A380s are replacing other planes on a seat for seat basis (not a plane for plane basis), the A380 is more expensive. To replace a 744 with an A380 costs more in total dollars than to use a 77W assuming one flight replaces one flight.

blackknight · Wed Jun 06, 2007 2:53 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 41):
But Leahy ain't French!

By his actions, what he eats, sleeps, drinks and says he is Airbus. He is no longer from a country so because Airbus is mostly France so should he be.

He may have been born in the US but surly all know how much American things leave a bad taste in his mouth. That is unless it has Airbus stamped on the side to make it all better.

zvezda · Wed Jun 06, 2007 3:02 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Are they planning on replacing 747s with 787s?

Yes.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Not exactly.

Not exactly??? BA will either order the 747-8 or not. It's a binary solution set. How can someone be "not exactly" pregnant?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 17):
In the next 10 yrs the SQ fleet will consist of 787, a350, 747s, a380, 777's, a330 each fullfilling (sic) specific network requirements.

SQ plan to retire their last 747 in 2011.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 37):
If anything, the 748i would have a greater chance at JL, since it's only "467" seats.

The 747-8 is too large for either JL or NH.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 38):
Does the 77W have higher revenue potential aswell (sic) as higher book price per seat?

On the same route, a small aircraft always produces higher revenue per seat because the airline takes those willing to pay the higher prices, not those willing to pay the lower prices.

EI321 · Wed Jun 06, 2007 3:12 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 42):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 38):
The book cost of a 77W is $640,000 per seat (375 seats** @ $240m) Vs A380 at $561,000 per seat ($296m @ 525 seats

The A380 is $317 million now, at least that's the quote in recent articles about the aircraft. $275 million is a very old number. Airbus was cited last year as saying it was $300 million, and that's last year. The 77W is $237-264 according to Boeing. So the A380 is $50-75 million more. The 748i is $273-283 million.

Ok, I've rechecked the figures, so lets adjust. $316m is the topping out price for an A380. The actual range is $296-$316m For the 777-300ER its $236-264.5m, and for the 747-8i its $272.5-282.5m. Taking the average price in all cases, see below:

The book cost of a 77W:
$667,000 per seat (375 seats** @ $250.25m)

The book cost of an A380:
$580,000 per seat (525 seats @ $306m)

The book cost of a 747-8:
$677,000 per seat (410 seats* @ $277.5m)

sources:
http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/05/08/10123719.html
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/prices/

SEPilot · Wed Jun 06, 2007 3:14 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 45):
The book cost of a 77W:
$667,000 per seat (375 seats** @ $250.25m)

The book cost of an A380:
$580,000 per seat (525 seats @ $306m)

The book cost of a 747-8:
$677,000 per seat (410 seats* @ $277.5m)

But, as Zvesda points out, what matters most is yield per seat.

cygnuschicago · Wed Jun 06, 2007 3:34 am

Quoting BlackKnight (Reply 43):
but surly all know how much American things leave a bad taste in his mouth

Really? I don't know this - please explain.

columba · Wed Jun 06, 2007 3:58 am

Well ANA is still a possibility: They have publically stated in 2006 that they don't rule out the A380 completely:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...oor-open-for-a380-despite-777.html

Now it is one year later, ANA will have learned some more facts about the A380 and had time to evaluate the aircraft. Airbus was in Japan twice presenting the aircraft. They would not have come a second time if they don't see any chance to win an order.
I don't say it will happen but I would not rule out an ANA order so quick as many here suggest.
The people at Airbus will know better than most of us here on a.net and saying that they are confident to win an order with a Japanese carrier is very different from the quoted Boeing statement to be in talks with 20 airlines.
Also keep in mind Airbus is very cautious right now, they got such a bad press over the last year and they know that they are been watched carefully. Saying that they are confident of winning an order and not getting it would be considered a huge blow for Airbus and the representatives know that as well. So I believe that there is really something to that statement. Wait and see.....

jimyvr · Wed Jun 06, 2007 4:15 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 37):
If anything, the 748i would have a greater chance at JL, since it's only "467" seats.

Why bother order one more aircraft type when they already stuff 500 seats in 773?

blackknight · Wed Jun 06, 2007 4:18 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 47):
Really? I don't know this - please explain

This is an insider view shared in certain circles. Short version.
Setup-
1)He has loads of talent for selling. He could sell anything really. Why then with all the companies in North America did he go to Airbus? There are more lucrative jobs in North America for his talent.
2) Where does he find the energy for such focused competition? I have seen extreme sports fans act better towards the competition than he does.
3) Somewhere in his history no matter how long ago, someone some where must have either caused him concern or told him he could not do something. The drive to win is so excessive that he is viewed as miss-speaking, over zealous, etc.
Why would you risk your reputation just to sell against your only competition?

ikramerica · Wed Jun 06, 2007 4:20 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 44):
The 747-8 is too large for either JL or NH.

I agree it is too large for NH, and it might be too large for JL, but not positive it is. NH has the one who's been much more vocal about the 77W being the largest plane they want to fly. JL has only said they are not looking at the A380 at this time. I don't recall them ruling out the 748i, but I seem to recall NH doing just that...

Quoting EI321 (Reply 45):
The book cost of a 77W:$667,000 per seat (375 seats** @ $250.25m) The book cost of an A380: $580,000 per seat (525 seats @ $306m) The book cost of a 747-8:$677,000 per seat (410 seats* @ $277.5m)

Don't make up seat counts. You can't use "book costs" but then add your own "adjusted" seat counts. Not that your metric means anything, but at least be consistent with the type of data you are using. 777 at 10 abreast is not a common use, and the "book range" is based on the "book seat count." Airbus has decreased the book seat count to 525, which I assume is to reach the range they promise of 8200nm, but the 555 was the number for 8000nm, which is what the 77W and 748i do as well (at least the newest 77W is within 1%).

Using book seat count still favors the A380, though not by as much over the 748i, and much MORE compared to the 77W.

77W is 365 seats
748i is 467 seats
A380 is 555 seats

77W is $685k per seat
748i is $590k per seat
A380 is $551k per seat

And yet the 77W has been selling like hotcakes... What does this tell you about the purchase price "per seat" metric with regard to value to airlines? There's resale value, cargo ability, overall cost to acquire, cost to operate, RASM, etc.

Here's an example:
Revenue cargo volume for the 748i is only 111 cu m according to Boeing after 467 passenger's bags are accounted for while the 77W has over 155 cu m of revenue space. The A380 falls somewhere between the two, though i can't find the info at Airbus or at wiki for the total cargo volume nor the revenue cargo volume, only the bulk cargo volume.

Revelation · Wed Jun 06, 2007 4:23 am

Quoting BlackKnight (Reply 29):
Japan is far different from the EU. Japan can still build new airports in the mist of environmental concerns while the EU can not.

Tell that to the farmer who won't sell his land and so is blocking the runway expansion at Narita...

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