klmcedric
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787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 6:16 am

Is this old news?

Scott carson (head of Boeing commercial airplanes) announced today in Paris that
the first flight for the 787 has been delayed two weeks to mid-september.

It's obvious this minor delay can't have anything to do with production problems, so I wonder what's the reason behind this.
Anyone can shed some light?

Source: Belga

http://www.zita.be/98/345414/1/boein...eamliner-met-enkele-weken-uit.html
(only in dutch)

[Edited 2007-06-17 23:18:07]
 
zvezda
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 6:19 am

Quoting KLMCedric (Thread starter):
It's obvious this minor delay can't have anything to do with production problems

That's not obvious to me. Why do you think that?
 
ikramerica
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 6:21 am

I think it's an internal date thing, because the date has been "August/September" for a while and many here were talking about late September, (or January, if you like to play the game of "people who know told me").

I think that a while back they said that as long as first flight happened in September, their flight test schedule had slack to work with.

The real question I have is can they get all of the test frames out in sufficient time, not just the first one. I have little doubt that the first one will remain close to schedule the whole way. But they are flying a lot at once to get the test program moving quickly, and so far, this is the only one close to finished.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
klmcedric
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 6:22 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
That's not obvious to me. Why do you think that?

What significant production problem could have arisen that they could fix in just 2 weeks time?
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 6:27 am

The only delivery date that really matters starts with LN7's to NH.

I want to see the thing fly for the same reason I wanted to see the A388 fly ASAP - it was cool. Even now, I run outside when I hear a 747, 767 or 777 lift-off from PAE, be it for delivery or test. But if it takes a few extra weeks - or even a few extra months - then that is what it takes. As long as she gets into the air.
 
ikramerica
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 6:31 am

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 3):
What significant production problem could have arisen that they could fix in just 2 weeks time?

Well, it's not 2 weeks.

It's 3-4 weeks from the 'earliest' flight date of late August.

Then that had some wiggle room in it when scheduled 2 years ago.

So the problem is likely a 1-3 month problem (depending on when discovered), but due to proper project planning, it only manifests as 2-3 weeks by first flight, and still doesn't impact EIS. That's good planning.

Now, if more problems crop up that are also critical path, EIS will be impacted. I think early June looks like a reasonable date for EIS at this point unless something major takes place.

The speed of rampup and the possibility of delays for later customers is an entirely different matter. That might be more troublesome, but it seems that Boeing is doing everything it can to prevent this, including having the Vought exec fired...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
zvezda
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 6:33 am

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 3):
What significant production problem could have arisen that they could fix in just 2 weeks time?

There are thousands of different possible production problems that could cause a two week delay.
 
halls120
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 6:34 am

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 3):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):That's not obvious to me. Why do you think that?
What significant production problem could have arisen that they could fix in just 2 weeks time?

The OP said "production problem," not "significant production problem."

Since the article says the flight was initially scheduled for the end of August, and it will now be performed two weeks later, something must have happened to warrant the delay. If it isn't a production problem, what else could it be?

That said, I don't see the importance of the announcement. 2 months or two years, now that would raise eyebrows.
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
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moo
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 6:36 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 5):

So the problem is likely a 1-3 month problem (depending on when discovered), but due to proper project planning, it only manifests as 2-3 weeks by first flight, and still doesn't impact EIS. That's good planning.

Problems don't necessarily have to be 'fixed' by the first flight - the first airframe can be made airworthy and flown well before any problem is fixed permanently on the production line.

Personally I think this is just an internal schedule thing.
 
zvezda
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 6:37 am

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 7):
I don't see the importance of the announcement. 2 months or two years, now that would raise eyebrows.

Ultimately, the date that matters is delivery to the customer. A two week delay of first flight might or might not delay first delivery. The most plausible explanation for a two week delay of first flight is late arrival of a flight critical part. As long as the supplier gets up-to-speed on production, it's not a big problem.
 
EI321
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 6:38 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
Quoting KLMCedric (Thread starter):
It's obvious this minor delay can't have anything to do with production problems

That's not obvious to me. Why do you think that?

I dont think its obvious either, neither do I think its a big deal. Its the testing phase that matters.
 
474218
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 8:06 am

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 3):
What significant production problem could have arisen that they could fix in just 2 weeks time?

I think the Airbus A380 team could provide an answer to this question.
 
roseflyer
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 8:17 am

Quoting KLMCedric (Reply 3):
What significant production problem could have arisen that they could fix in just 2 weeks time?

Others haven't given examples, but I can try.

Two weeks is a long time, and many things could cause that. Large system level problems could delay it by 2 weeks like, hydraulic system, landing gear, braking, environmental control system, flight controls, avionics, and many other things. They could have to redesign something, or get some new parts in. Its the integration level that might be a problem. The components are all in Everett or close, and the problems with them specifically have been worked out in preliminary testing. Now they have problems integrating. I think two weeks could be caused by many things. If something wasn't delivered on time, then that could have pushed back testing and problems could arise that cause further delays. The 787 is new, so mechanics don't know where to get at problems. There is a lot of learning going on. It's not like these guys have been working on the plane for years like the 767. Every fault will take longer than normal to fix.
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NYC777
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 8:20 am

The real key is not the first flight of LN 1 but will Boeing get subsequent airframes out the door in a timely manner to support th eentire test program as well as support first delivery in May 2008. If the supplier could correct their issues in a timely manner (and there is nothing to suggest that they would fail to do so) the nschedule risk would be very minimal.

Then all that remains are the issues that crop up during flight testing and the abilit yof the suppliers and Boeing to resolve them.

The two week test flight slip is not an issue. If it was linger than there would be some cause for concern.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 8:25 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 13):
The real key is not the first flight of LN 1 but will Boeing get subsequent airframes out the door in a timely manner to support th eentire test program as well as support first delivery in May 2008.

 checkmark   checkmark   checkmark 

Boeing's only "deadlines" are the delivery dates promised to customers. Delaying the first flight will likely be insignificant in the long run given that six aircraft will be used during certification.
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
ikramerica
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 8:46 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 13):



Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 14):

Glad you guys agree...  Wink

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
The real question I have is can they get all of the test frames out in sufficient time, not just the first one. I have little doubt that the first one will remain close to schedule the whole way. But they are flying a lot at once to get the test program moving quickly, and so far, this is the only one close to finished.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 8:56 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 14):
Boeing's only "deadlines" are the delivery dates promised to customers. Delaying the first flight will likely be insignificant in the long run given that six aircraft will be used during certification.

Very true thoug h Boeing said that if first flight is delayed by a month or more than it'll impact the test and certification program and as a result it will impact deliveries.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
aeronut
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 9:58 am

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 12):
Others haven't given examples, but I can try.

Two weeks is a long time, and many things could cause that. Large system level problems could delay it by 2 weeks like, hydraulic system, landing gear, braking, environmental control system, flight controls, avionics, and many other things. They could have to redesign something, or get some new parts in. Its the integration level that might be a problem. The components are all in Everett or close, and the problems with them specifically have been worked out in preliminary testing. Now they have problems integrating. I think two weeks could be caused by many things. If something wasn't delivered on time, then that could have pushed back testing and problems could arise that cause further delays. The 787 is new, so mechanics don't know where to get at problems. There is a lot of learning going on. It's not like these guys have been working on the plane for years like the 767. Every fault will take longer than normal to fix.

Two weeks is nothing in this business.
 
azhobo
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:01 am

Boeing has been saying all along that first flight has no set date and that it would occur in late august to early september. They will not compromise safety for the sake of meeting a deadline.

My guess is that whoever was being interviewed from Boeing said what is listed in my first paragraph (paraphrased) and that was interpreted by the interviewer as a delay based on some preconceived old timeline. I have seen on Anet that august 27th was a conceived first flight date. Not sure where that came from but it has not been stated by Boeing this year as far as i know.

Now if it went into October, then there is more of an issue for on time certification. Most development flight schedules have some slack built in them. Could be anything including software certification for safety of flight.

As far as EIS goes, my understanding is that Boeing intends to have some 30 frames built and ready by the time they get certification. So as long as there are no assembly delays, a month or two slip is a miniscule problem due to delayed certification. It may mean that they will have to deliver something like the first 2 months of scheduled deliveries late, but the remaining frames for that year will be on time.

All IMO with some speculation...HOBO
.
 
AirframeAS
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:18 am

Isn't this delay because of the lack of fastners? I mean this affects all manufacturers, according to another thread.
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akizidy214
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:50 am

I just love how the yahoo article call the 350 a 250. I mean please do a little research before you post something millions of people are going to read.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070617...afp/franceusaerospace_070617190920
DCA
 
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zeke
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 8:58 pm

JP Morgon have come and and predicted a 4 month delay based upon "'power on' to the aircraft was scheduled for April 21, but is now scheduled for August 15".

I am not listening to any indication of a delay by any analyst for the 787 until such time as Boeing comes out and indicates a delay, significant corporate and personal penalties are in place if Boeing were to mislead the market, I think there is sufficient incentive to give truthful advice.

As per the linked article below "The head of Boeing's commercial airplane unit, Scott Carson, said earlier on Monday that the plane was still on schedule for roll out in July and test flight in August or September. He said it would be delivered on time to the first customer in May 2008."

from http://www.reuters.com/article/tnBas...cIndustries-SP/idUSWEA383020070618
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Danny
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 9:04 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 22):
I am not listening to any indication of a delay by any analyst for the 787 until such time as Boeing comes out and indicates a delay, significant corporate and personal penalties are in place if Boeing were to mislead the market, I think there is sufficient incentive to give truthful advice.

It is not that simple. Just before power on did not happen in April doesn't mean EIS will be delayed by 4 months as well. As such Boeing implements contingency plans and catch up plans. They will not announce any delay until they are 100% certain that it will happen.
 
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keesje
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 9:39 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 22):
significant corporate and personal penalties are in place if Boeing were to mislead the market



Quoting Danny (Reply 23):
They will not announce any delay until they are 100% certain that it will happen.

 checkmark 

Which means companies deny everything & stick to the legally approved story line until a new one is released, even if they know better long before.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
797charter
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:03 pm

I think it is meaningless to talk about delay, before we know if first delivery will slip.

Just my  twocents 
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clickhappy
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:04 pm

"We believe that the 'power on' to the aircraft was scheduled for April 21, but is now scheduled for August 15, and even that date is considered a bit of a stretch by some suppliers," said JP Morgan analyst Joseph Nadol in a research note, citing unnamed suppliers on the 787 program.

4 months puts us into December. Which maps to exactly what I said last week, that the first flight could be delayed into early 2008.
 
Danny
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:07 pm

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 26):
4 months puts us into December. Which maps to exactly what I said last week, that the first flight could be delayed into early 2008.

Yes, it seems you were spot on with that one. The question is how they are going to meet May deliveries with first flight in January? That would require super fast and flawless testing phase.
 
zvezda
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:12 pm

How could power on have been scheduled for April 21 when the major components weren't scheduled for delivery to Boeing until May? This rumor has no credibility.
 
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keesje
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:16 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 27):
Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 26):
4 months puts us into December. Which maps to exactly what I said last week, that the first flight could be delayed into early 2008.

Yes, it seems you were spot on with that one. The question is how they are going to meet May deliveries with first flight in January? That would require super fast and flawless testing phase.

If and again a big IF this is the case Boeing lawyers have set up a bullet prove procedure how, to who and when to announce what & marketing is making long days trying to translate it into a positive message for Boeing / the 787 program.

Many ego's at stake, however I guess most customers drew up back up scenarios a long time ago & a delay wouldn't hurt Boeing / the 787 long term..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Danny
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:18 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 28):
How could power on have been scheduled for April 21 when the major components weren't scheduled for delivery to Boeing until May?


[Edited 2007-06-18 15:29:45]
 
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clickhappy
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:22 pm

How could power on have been scheduled for April 21 when the major components weren't scheduled for delivery to Boeing until May?

Because the systems are assembled and tested before they get stuffed into the airplane.

Do you think they would just assemble the stuff once the fuse was complete and hope it works?

Just because you don't understand something does not make it any less credible.
 
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zeke
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:25 pm

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 31):
Just because you don't understand something does not make it any less credible.


 checkmark 

I don't understand women or quantum mechanics, does not mean they are not credible.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
zvezda
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:32 pm

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 31):
Because the systems are assembled and tested before they get stuffed into the airplane.

Do you think they would just assemble the stuff once the fuse was complete and hope it works?

That's component testing. Power-on happens after assembly.

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 31):
Just because you don't understand something does not make it any less credible.

Indeed.  Smile

Quoting Zeke (Reply 32):
I don't understand women or quantum mechanics, does not mean they are not credible.

I do understand quantum mechanics, quantum electrodynamics, etc. and the credibility of women is not axiomatic.
 
Thorben
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:37 pm

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 26):
"We believe that the 'power on' to the aircraft was scheduled for April 21, but is now scheduled for August 15, and even that date is considered a bit of a stretch by some suppliers," said JP Morgan analyst Joseph Nadol in a research note, citing unnamed suppliers on the 787 program.

4 months puts us into December. Which maps to exactly what I said last week, that the first flight could be delayed into early 2008.

Just saw that article myself, doesn't look good. But a plane with all this new technology is almost sure to have delays.
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clickhappy
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:39 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 33):
That's component testing. Power-on happens after assembly.

Oh I see. You are trying to discredit the JP Morgan article by saying that the plane was supposed to be fully built with all systems installed by 21April.

But how could that be, as you have noted.

Therefore the article must be wrong, you are correct, and there are no 787 delays.

As a CEO, you must do pretty well financially, right? Want to make a wager? Say $500US to the winners favorite charity?

The bet is that the 787 first flight will be at least 8 weeks late. Meaning it won't fly until late October, at the earliest.
 
zvezda
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:47 pm

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 35):
You are trying to discredit the JP Morgan article by saying that the plane was supposed to be fully built with all systems installed by 21April.

I said nothing of the sort. Please don't put words in my mouth. Delivery of major components to Boeing was scheduled for May. Power-on could not have been scheduled before that. Therefore, the "We believe that the 'power on' to the aircraft was scheduled for April 21" part lacks credibility.

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 35):
Want to make a wager? Say $500US to the winners favorite charity?

Suggest an appropriate escrow agent.

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 35):
The bet is that the 787 first flight will be at least 8 weeks late. Meaning it won't fly until late October, at the earliest.

That doesn't match the assertion which I made, which was regarding a rumored four month delay to first flight. Why are you backing down? I'll stand my ground and wager that 787 first flight will be in 2007.
 
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clickhappy
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:57 pm

No need for escrow old boy, I trust you. And you know where to find me  Wink

A four month delay would still be in 2007. Where things get sticky is towards the end of the year, when Boeing usually shuts down for 2 weeks. Best knowledge I have says the work will be done before this, but who's to say a new problem, or even multiple problems won't crop up?

And I am not backing down. What does that even mean? Backing down from what? A fight? With you. Haha.

If you do a search you will see that I originally said the 787 first flight will be delayed, possible as late as early 2008. Most people said I was wrong, a few called me a liar. There are too many items in play to say when it will fly. But, it will be late. By at least two months, maybe as many as 5.
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:58 pm

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 35):
The bet is that the 787 first flight will be at least 8 weeks late. Meaning it won't fly until late October, at the earliest.

Well which is it. First you said not until early 2008, then December 2007 and now you're saying October? So which one is it? I'm confused.

I talked to a 787 project employee and he insists that first flight will be on time.

[Edited 2007-06-18 16:01:02]
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
Danny
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 11:04 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 38):
I talked to a 787 project employee and he insists that first flight will be on time.

That is the only official version that the employee must stick to. See explanation by Keesje above.
 
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clickhappy
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 11:12 pm

Well which is it. First you said not until early 2008, then December 2007 and now you're saying October? So which one is it? I'm confused.

LOL, let me break it down for you.

The 787 first flight will be late. How late? Who knows! I have heard as late as early Jan 2008. I have heard it won't be an earlier than late October. So, there is your window. Late October to early January.

Maybe you should ask the "787 project employee" you know.

Why do you guys get all puffed up about the 787 being late? Seems like most of you are fanboys with no vested interest in how Boeing does, other than you have somehow attached your manhood to the thing being on time or not
 Yeah sure
 
parapente
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 11:20 pm

Oh I see. You are trying to discredit the JP Morgan article by saying that the plane was supposed to be fully built with all systems installed by 21April.

What is odd is that the JP Morgan article was posted earlier today. I wrote a reply to it. By the time I posted it, the article and the thread had been deleted - why?. It was a very important article. It is stating real delays from a highly reputable source. Note this is share sensitive information JP Morgan cannot afford to be wrong.Add this to the continual "leaks" coming out of Boeing (the barrels not fitting together for instance -a small issue !!!!) and you do have the makings of a major story brewing. Boeing needs to get their story right here and quickly or they will start to look like Airbus and the A380.
 
Thorben
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 11:23 pm

Quoting Parapente (Reply 41):
Boeing needs to get their story right here and quickly or they will start to look like Airbus and the A380.

Naaaah, they are still far away from that kind of trouble. The 787 is full of new technology, especially all those composite parts, people will forgive delays, even if it is four month. The important thing is to get that plane right.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 11:24 pm

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 40):
Well which is it. First you said not until early 2008, then December 2007 and now you're saying October? So which one is it? I'm confused.

LOL, let me break it down for you.

The 787 first flight will be late. How late? Who knows! I have heard as late as early Jan 2008. I have heard it won't be an earlier than late October. So, there is your window. Late October to early January.

Maybe you should ask the "787 project employee" you know.

Why do you guys get all puffed up about the 787 being late? Seems like most of you are fanboys with no vested interest in how Boeing does, other than you have somehow attached your manhood to the thing being on time or not

Call me what you want but it seems to me that your credibility is at issue as you have varied with when the 787 will take to the air and you're basing first on what you heard and now on a dubious research report from JPM Chase. And I did ask the person I know and he reaffirmed that it will fly on time but he also said when it's ready.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
zvezda
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 11:27 pm

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 37):
Backing down from what? A fight? With you. Haha.

Goodness no! From the assertion of a four month delay. Thanks for the clarification on that.

I'm not asserting that the 787 won't be late. My point was that the speculation about an April 21 power-on was not even plausible and therefore lacks credibility.
 
Danny
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 11:30 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 43):
Call me what you want but it seems to me that your credibility is at issue as you have varied with when the 787 will take to the air and you're basing first on what you heard and now on a dubious research report from JPM Chase. And I did ask the person I know and he reaffirmed that it will fly on time but he also said when it's ready.

Let's all bookmark this thread and come back to it when the 787 flies. Time will tell who has credibility and who doesn't.

[Edited 2007-06-18 16:31:22]
 
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clickhappy
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RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 11:33 pm

How have I varied what I have said?

Here is my original post:
RE: 787 Partner Executive Fired (by TeamAmerica Jun 9 2007 in Civil Aviation)

they told me that it is possible the first flight for the 787 won't happen until early next year

That was 10 days ago. I have done my own digging. Read above. Late October - Early January. I post the info as I get it. Would it make you feel better if I didn't serve up any bad news for the 787 program?

Should we dig up all the posts about SOX, the 787 being on time, and Boeing isn't Airbus, etc etc etc?
 
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Stitch
Posts: 26773
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Mon Jun 18, 2007 11:49 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 42):
Naaaah, they are still far away from that kind of trouble. The 787 is full of new technology, especially all those composite parts, people will forgive delays, even if it is four month. The important thing is to get that plane right.

Any delay of more then about three to four weeks will start to draw serious attention and parallels to the A380 program (of course, for a.netters, this will happen with any delay of more then three to four minutes). This attention will have an adverse affect on Boeing's share price just because it's trading at historical highs at the moment and many analysts - and especially day traders who still set many stock pricing trends - will believe that since the A388 was two years late, ergo the 787 will be two years late, ergo Boeing's revenues are going to crater.

If Boeing gets LN 7 into NH's hands in May 2008 as the contract says(?) and the others follow on delivery schedule, the delays won't be forgotten (especially here), but it will be forgiven (at least by the market).
 
wjcandee
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Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:07 am

Quoting Parapente (Reply 40):
Note this is share sensitive information JP Morgan cannot afford to be wrong.

They are wrong ALL THE TIME. And they have a "skeptical" of Boeing attitude. Who is Joseph Nadol? He's the guy who said this in January 2005, when Boeing was trading at $49 per share (as opposed to its present price of $97 (meaning that it has DOUBLED in the past two years):

"J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Nadol is among the skeptics. "We do not believe that Boeing's premium valuation is warranted given the risks facing the aerospace cycle, continued market share erosion, R&D headwind and large pension and retiree obligations," he wrote last Tuesday. (Nadol doesn't own shares of Boeing; J.P. Morgan has had an investment-banking relationship with the company within the last 12 months.) "

Brilliant guy. Glad I follow his recommendations. http://www.smartmoney.com/stockwatch/index.cfm?story=20050131

[Edited 2007-06-18 17:07:59]
 
TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:07 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 32):
That's component testing. Power-on happens after assembly.

 checkmark "Power-on" is NOT component testing. It's flipping the switch on the actual installation. The JP Morgan article is at least incorrect in terminology as I understand it.

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 34):
Oh I see. You are trying to discredit the JP Morgan article by saying that the plane was supposed to be fully built with all systems installed by 21April.

 talktothehand We're discrediting the article exactly as we should do. If this site isn't the place for nitpicking, then what is? If JP Morgan is inferring extraordinary problems with the iron bird, that would be news to me.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 37):
Well which is it. First you said not until early 2008, then December 2007 and now you're saying October? So which one is it? I'm confused.

Me to. If Clickhappy is going to propagate rumors (and make bets!) he ought to have a coherent story.

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 39):
Why do you guys get all puffed up about the 787 being late? Seems like most of you are fanboys with no vested interest in how Boeing does, other than you have somehow attached your manhood to the thing being on time or not

 redflag The puffing is in regard to the inconsistency in your statements. You're puking "I heard this" and then hedging on your belief of the statements made. The result is a useless muddle and leaves you as a very questionable source.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
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clickhappy
Posts: 9148
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2001 12:10 pm

RE: 787 First Flight Delayed 2 Weeks

Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:16 am

I am disappointed you see my information as inconsistent. I am simply trying to provide up-to-date information, as I get it. I have no concern about how any of you feel about me as a "source." If my phone were to ring tomorrow with news that the 787 was going to fly on 1Sept I would post the information here (assuming it was okay with my source(s)).

If you don't care to believe what I have to share I am okay with that.

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