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Pihero
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Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:19 pm

Just about to go out but check this article and let the shrapnells fly !
Leeham editorial
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DAYflyer
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:29 pm

Who is he and what are his credentials, or is he another Anet wannabe?
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Reggaebird
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:36 pm

I am keeping my schrapnel as this wasn't worth letting any fly.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:36 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 1):
Who is he and what are his credentials, or is he another Anet wannabe?

Like Richard Aboloufia, he is an industry analyst. He's less critical of Airbus then Richard, and he favors of the A380, which makes him more appealing to Airbus Aficionados.
 
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semobeila
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:51 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 1):
Who is he and what are his credentials, or is he another Anet wannabe?

Details about Scott Hamilton: http://www.leeham.net/Default.asp?page=31
 
cornish
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:54 pm

Quoting Semobeila (Reply 4):
Details about Scott Hamilton: http://www.leeham.net/Default.asp?page=31

Not exactly an extensive list of clients for one who has been in the busines so long and had his own company since 1999.......

Frankly I've never heard of him.
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zeke
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:55 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 1):
Who is he and what are his credentials, or is he another Anet wannabe?

Been used as a source by many a boeing cheerleader in the past on a.net for his digs at airbus and airbus products...why is it convenient to ignore him now ?
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DAYflyer
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2007 10:03 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
Like Richard Aboloufia, he is an industry analyst. He's less critical of Airbus then Richard, and he favors of the A380, which makes him more appealing to Airbus Aficionados.

Thanks! I had never head of him before. He is correct that Airbus did "outsell" Boeing at Paris, but that is nothing new. Airbus only had about 35% of the orders prior to the Airshow, and we all know that is Airbus' "modus operendi" to sandbag orders for the event. By years end, we shall see who did what.
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mptpa
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2007 10:45 pm

Even though Airbus outsold at Paris, what is really important is what these sales are going to make in terms of incremental cash flow. If the discounts are steep, and the sales in value in terms of cost is not much, that is not going to produce positive cashflow. I would really like to know the real profit margin on these frames.

It is a hell of a lot better to sell less at a profit than to sell more at a loss. Sales is a very misleading; as a corporate entity that Airbus is or should be, the shareholder value is generated by profits not sales.

Lets hear what the profit margin is if someone knows even a slight angle on this regard.

Nevertheless, Airbus got the thunder and the boost they need at this time, which is great for the employee morale.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:35 pm

Quoting Mptpa (Reply 8):
Even though Airbus outsold at Paris, what is really important is what these sales are going to make in terms of incremental cash flow. If the discounts are steep, and the sales in value in terms of cost is not much, that is not going to produce positive cashflow. I would really like to know the real profit margin on these frames.

Projected discount rates track to historical norms, so I expect Airbus didn't give away the store. Leahey did say the prices were lower then he expected, but not below what Airbus planned.

I tend to think Airbus didn't plan to sell the planes at a loss, but even if they did, JL's comment could be interpreted to say that despite their best efforts, they still made a profit. Big grin
 
EI321
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:46 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 1):
Who is he and what are his credentials, or is he another Anet wannabe?

He's in the same league as Richard Aboulafia. Something of a love/hate thing.

Quote:
Airbus CEO Louis Gallois proclaimed at the airshow that ''Airbus is back''. Well, not quite, but it is getting there.
 
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:07 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
ike Richard Aboloufia, he is an industry analyst. He's less critical of Airbus then Richard

I have to disagree with this. Nearly all his editorials and newsletters over the past two years have been highly critical of Airbus. This is his first "positive" Airbus article that I have seen. In fact, I nearly fell of my chair reading it

Of course, now we are going to have BBs doing "slam Scott" posts.

Sometimes, I think Tim Clark has the best strategy. I'm convinced he says something like "The A380 is overweight", then logs into a.net and reads the 300 post threads. Then, a week late he says "The A380 is exceeding expectations", and logs in again to read the 300 post threads, and see how his previous haters and lovers have switched sides. Heck, must be more fun for him than playing Brickbreaker on his Blackberry....  Smile

[Edited 2007-06-26 20:10:02]
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 4:35 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 11):
I have to disagree with this. Nearly all his editorials and newsletters over the past two years have been highly critical of Airbus. This is his first "positive" Airbus article that I have seen. In fact, I nearly fell of my chair reading it

You obviously haven't searched the Leeham archives for more than two years. Scott Hamilton has been very critical of Boeing, when deserved, for as long as he has been publishing. The last two years have been a nightmare for Airbus and nearly all commentators world-wide have criticized Airbus' performance as well as their infighting and questionable management structure. So in that regard Scott has reflected the facts quite well.

Leeham just this week has a rather anti-Boeing article on the competition for the US Air Force tanker contract as well as an upbeat view of the A350XWB orders situation.

When Boeing in the 90's was seeing its market share plunge, Scott was extremely critical of Boeing management, especially its pitiful R&D budget.

Many of the comments on a.net concerning Scott Hamilton, Richard Aboulafia, James Wallace and others are often due to an appalling lack of historical perspective on their writings. There don't seem to be any European aviation commentators with the credentials of their US counterparts and that may be part of the problem.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 4:40 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 11):
I have to disagree with this. Nearly all his editorials and newsletters over the past two years have been highly critical of Airbus. This is his first "positive" Airbus article that I have seen.

His recent articles on the A380 have been in favor of the plane and those who have ordered it, so I would expect that alone would endear him to Airbus Aficionados.  Smile
 
Pihero
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 5:00 am

Still the usual old CivAv tactics :"if the news doesn't fit, shoot the messenger and do not address any of his messages ! "
Scott must be killing himself laughing.
Actually, the commentary is quite objective :
-he starts by stating the obvious about airliners orders,
-then goes a bit deeper about market segmentation -if the 350 is aimed at the 777, it showed a clear margin, but if that is the case, the 787 is the clear winner.
-then comes a bit of history on why B doesn't announce its orders at airshows,but...
-..."all that really matters is the year-to-date tally. By this measure, Airbus,
through the Air Show, not only has caught up to Boeing but slightly surpassed it in firm
orders. We think Boeing has the advantage to win the year-end tally if Delta Air Lines in
fact orders 125 787s, as has been hinted at by the company. Although Delta is talking to
Airbus about the A350, we don't expect Delta to deviate from its long history of ordering
Boeing exclusively.
"...
-Now comes the demonstration about product range : "Airbus is finally getting a better product mix, but Boeing still has
the advantage in the higher profit-margin airplanes overall and, most critically, in the
near-term when considering that the 787 begins delivering next year. Airbus' A380
program remains a cash flow drag through 2010 and the A350 doesn't begin delivering
until 2013....
"
--in passing, a comment on ILFC : "...An order from International Lease Finance Corp. is expected; ILFC's business is
leasing airplanes and the A350 will be a viable competitor to the 787 and the 777.
Furthermore, ILFC's order for 16 A350s (Version 4) represents early delivery slots. ILFC
isn't about to give these up....
"
-And finally, the A.net-prayed-for A.A order (Boeing , of course) :"...American CEO Gerard Arpey doesn't plan to order any more plans than necessary to
replace the aging MD-80 fleet (and even these replacements will be kept to a minimum)
until he gets a new pilot labor contract. Given the state of animosity there, this could be a
long time. So don't look for any order for the Dreamliner (or, even more of a long shot,
the A350) this year. Neither should anyone look for any significant order for 737s to
replace MD-80s, or perhaps any order at all....
"

Is the pill really that hard to swallow ? And what difference will it make to our lives whether B outsells a this year or not ?
Zeke and CygnusChicago at least remember and kept their wits on. Apparently, on another thread, WingedMigrator is also citing Leeham...and his reference to some B marketing people is even more outlandish than my quoted article. Remember, it was written by someone who a few weeks ago titled a comment :"This is going to be a Boeing summer ".
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 5:05 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 12):
Many of the comments on a.net concerning Scott Hamilton, Richard Aboulafia, James Wallace and others are often due to an appalling lack of historical perspective on their writings. There don't seem to be any European aviation commentators with the credentials of their US counterparts and that may be part of the problem.

To me, historical perspective matters little. Supporting evidence is essential. Most of Hamilton's stuff is backed up by facts, while Aboulafia's is generally a collection of opinion and soundbites. I can completely understand the Airbus aversion to Aboulafia. Wallace, in my opinion, is a reporter/blogger, and I expect newspaper sales/website hits from him, not facts.

As to the lack of European commentators, well, I think that is simply a case of lost in translation. There are many, but since they're published in foreign papers and not in English, they don't get picked up.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
His recent articles on the A380 have been in favor of the plane and those who have ordered it, so I would expect that alone would endear him to Airbus Aficionados

Hah, probably true  Smile
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gbfra
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 5:07 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 10):
He's in the same league as Richard Aboulafia. Something of a love/hate thing.

Scott Hamilton's reputation among journalists is quite good and many of us have benefitted (and still do) from his website. For those of us who are not in "love/hate things", he is a valuable source. I appreciate his work very much, even if I do not always share his opinions.

The fact that many a.netters do not seem to know him says a lot about their (lack of) knowledge of the industry.

[Edited 2007-06-26 22:08:52]
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 5:27 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 15):
As to the lack of European commentators, well, I think that is simply a case of lost in translation. There are many, but since they're published in foreign papers and not in English, they don't get picked up.

There are many? Can you name some?
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dhefty
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 5:42 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 15):
As to the lack of European commentators, well, I think that is simply a case of lost in translation. There are many, but since they're published in foreign papers and not in English, they don't get picked up.

And they would be who?
 
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yellowtail
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 6:02 am

Well how can someone who mispells planes (he has "plans") be taken seriously especially when he is supposed to be an aviation prophet.
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Motorhussy
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 6:13 am

I thought that was an excellent over-view post Le Bourget with good insights to the real competition (between the A350 and 777 as well as 787 etc). Not rocket science, but succinct and difficult to refute.

I look forward to reading more from Scott Hamilton.

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MH
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 6:16 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 12):

You obviously haven't searched the Leeham archives for more than two years. Scott Hamilton has been very critical of Boeing, when deserved, for as long as he has been publishing. The last two years have been a nightmare for Airbus and nearly all commentators world-wide have criticized Airbus' performance as well as their infighting and questionable management structure. So in that regard Scott has reflected the facts quite well.

Leeham just this week has a rather anti-Boeing article on the competition for the US Air Force tanker contract as well as an upbeat view of the A350XWB orders situation.

When Boeing in the 90's was seeing its market share plunge, Scott was extremely critical of Boeing management, especially its pitiful R&D budget.

Many of the comments on a.net concerning Scott Hamilton, Richard Aboulafia, James Wallace and others are often due to an appalling lack of historical perspective on their writings. There don't seem to be any European aviation commentators with the credentials of their US counterparts and that may be part of the problem.

....Dhefty, you are forgetting something, A.netters here conveniently enjoy leaving facts such as the ones you've mentioned above out..... Smile
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Observer
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 6:24 am

How can someone criticize over typos when you don't punctuate a question with a question mark?
 
dank
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 6:46 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 15):
Most of Hamilton's stuff is backed up by facts, while Aboulafia's is generally a collection of opinion and soundbites. I can completely understand the Airbus aversion to Aboulafia. Wallace, in my opinion, is a reporter/blogger, and I expect newspaper sales/website hits from him, not facts.

 checkmark  That's pretty much my take on things. Hamilton seems pretty factual and acting as an analyst. Aboulafia just seems to want to get himself in the media.

I think that Hamilton hit upon an issue that has been in the background for a while, the question of how Boeing deals with the lower end of the narrowbody market since a single plane isn't going to cut it from 100 seats to just below the 783. It looks like one option might be to tackle the low end as a joint venture. To abandon it completely seems to me to just allow Embraer to slowly work its way upwards.

cheers.
 
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 6:52 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 25):
the question of how Boeing deals with the lower end of the narrowbody market since a single plane isn't going to cut it from 100 seats to just below the 783.

How is Airbus going to deal with it? They've got an even bigger gap to fill.

[Edited 2007-06-26 23:58:23]
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dank
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 7:01 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 26):
How is Airbus going to deal with it?

They have a bigger gap to fill. Two planes eventually. A problem, as well, obviously. But I think there are a lot of people in these parts who believe that the Yellowstone project is gospel (that Boeing will definitely only be three planes in the marketspace starting at 100 planes and higher). Boeing's plans could very well evolve. Maybe hey will expand the 787 to take over most of the Y3 space, maybe there will be two planes, either alone, or in tandem with another manufacturer like Hamilton says is an option in the Y1 space.

cheers.
 
EI321
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 7:19 am

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 16):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 10):
He's in the same league as Richard Aboulafia. Something of a love/hate thing.

Scott Hamilton's reputation among journalists is quite good and many of us have benefitted (and still do) from his website. For those of us who are not in "love/hate things", he is a valuable source. I appreciate his work very much, even if I do not always share his opinions.

The fact that many a.netters do not seem to know him says a lot about their (lack of) knowledge of the industry.

In fact I read all of hisarticles. What I mean by love/hate, is that he appraises and critises in equal measure.

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 17):
Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 15):
As to the lack of European commentators, well, I think that is simply a case of lost in translation. There are many, but since they're published in foreign papers and not in English, they don't get picked up.

There are many? Can you name some?

Im lost, are you talking about leeham specifically?

Quoting Dank (Reply 25):
Aboulafia just seems to want to get himself in the media.

now who does that remind me of? Smile

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 26):
Quoting Dank (Reply 25):
the question of how Boeing deals with the lower end of the narrowbody market since a single plane isn't going to cut it from 100 seats to just below the 783.

How is Airbus going to deal with it? They've got an even bigger gap to fill.

Who says they want, or even need to fill it? They never bothered replacing the A310 and the A300 with aircraft of the same size, and Boeing have replace the 767 with a larger aircraft.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 7:33 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 25):
I think that Hamilton hit upon an issue that has been in the background for a while, the question of how Boeing deals with the lower end of the narrowbody market since a single plane isn't going to cut it from 100 seats to just below the 783.

I believe for both Airbus and Boeing a narrowbody with no more then 199 seats in two-classes and 4000nm range should be plenty on the top end. LCCs won't want something with more then 200 seats in a single class because of the time to turn it around and the need for five FAs. Charters might want it, but I expect they'll be content with whatever they can fit in the plane in a single class.
 
Pihero
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:03 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 17):
There are many? Can you name some?



Quoting Dhefty (Reply 18):
And they would be who?

Is that a challenge ?
Especially when I have seldom seen a reference to a journalist / analyst of the caliber of David Learmount who writes in English !
On the other hand, you'd find Pierre Sparaco who's getting some recognition since he joined the team of AWST.
If you're ready for a heart attack, go and read Kieran Daly's blog. He's an unashamed Airbus apologist and generally gets my B.fans friends up the wall and with foaming mouths !
Once you've read those above, maybe we could have a discussion... Then I'll pass you some articles in French or German by some very nice people. ( And no, they are not writing for the Spiegel !)

Regards

[Edited 2007-06-27 01:05:01]
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 10:50 am

Sounds like much of what was said in the article was pretty much stuff said and discussed at nausium here on Anet and most of his conclusions seem strikingly similar as well. I cannot fathom why so much hoopla is being given over Airbus's take at the show this year. If we want to boil everything in the commercial aviation world down to numbers Airbus should take the lions share of orders every single year, simply because they PRODUCE MORE A/C every year than Boeing. And that margin is growing as Airbus steps up A32X production, as seen with Boeing and aviation in general right now is that the market is in a trend of growth along with an environment of higher fuel costs, airlines are looking to get new A/C more than ever due to the rocketing costs, as a result we've seen what could be a simple 12 to 18 month wait for a 737 climb to over anywhere from 28 to 36 months, there simply isn't enough room in production schedules for all the immediate demand, but the demand drastically decreases after waits of 5 or more years, because the market can quickly change in that time. Boeing, as been discussed over and over again, has sold out 787 slots for almost the first 6 years of production. Airbus's totals from the last 2 years are great, but maybe not a great as Boeings, but because of Boeings success, Airbus will have it's year this year. Boeing can't sell A/C in slots that simply aren't there. Airbus on the other hand has slots open from not only much higher production rates, but from the slight lag in sales behind Boeing in the last 2 years.
 
Pihero
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:56 pm

Quoting Galapagapop (Reply 31):
Airbus should take the lions share of orders every single year, simply because they PRODUCE MORE A/C every year than Boeing. And that margin is growing as Airbus steps up A32X production,

Boeing should produce more in two years time than Airbus, according to their production forecast.

Quoting Galapagapop (Reply 31):
Boeing, as been discussed over and over again, has sold out 787 slots for almost the first 6 years of production.

So for airlines wanting new airplanes, B cannot deliver them sooner than A, which changes the aspect of the game. Even IF the 350 is an inferior product, its economics will be superior to the airplanes of this generation. And maybe, just maybe, delivery slots will be more expensive than a lot of people would think...
The announced 787 production ramp-up has not yet been finalised, in spite of last year's proposal.
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cornish
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 7:00 pm

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 16):
Scott Hamilton's reputation among journalists is quite good and many of us have benefitted (and still do) from his website. For those of us who are not in "love/hate things", he is a valuable source. I appreciate his work very much, even if I do not always share his opinions.

The fact that many a.netters do not seem to know him says a lot about their (lack of) knowledge of the industry.

Nope. Many industry people don't have a clue who he is either. I've been an industry analyst and consultant for long enough now and I've never heard of him - a straw poll amongst my colleagues (some of which are very well known in the industry) elicited the same response.

Type his name into google and I got a whole load of other people that shared his name but not him. Now I'm an aviation analyst and consultant and I type my name in and the first page is full of me and the work I do. Yet I'm not remotely famous. However the list of the clients i work with through my company is far more extensive and contains far more big names than his. The vast majority of you won't know me but many in the industry will be well aware of what I do and have done.

The difference being that the good analysts are busy with full workloads thanks to a tonne of work from clients. The freelance ones that are busy blogging are those that don't have enough good paid work to do and have to get their name out accordingly.....
Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
 
Burkhard
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 10:01 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
I believe for both Airbus and Boeing a narrowbody with no more then 199 seats in two-classes and 4000nm range should be plenty on the top end.

While the 199 is OK, 4000 is just too little range for holiday flights from Europe to reach the many isles in the Caribeean or in the Indian Ocean. So 199/4500 please, or better just 757-200 specs at 737/A320 costs.
 
Pihero
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 10:50 pm

Quoting Cornish (Reply 31):
The difference being that the good analysts are busy with full workloads thanks to a tonne of work from clients. The freelance ones that are busy blogging are those that don't have enough good paid work to do and have to get their name out accordingly.....

Pretty arrogant statement, if I may say.
Especially from a well known professional like you who could post 6982 times in this forum only, in just 30 months.
And if only the known people are right, that would disqualify 99.99% of the posters on A.net.(Me included)
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incitatus
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 10:56 pm

Quoting Dank (Reply 23):
I think that Hamilton hit upon an issue that has been in the background for a while, the question of how Boeing deals with the lower end of the narrowbody market since a single plane isn't going to cut it from 100 seats to just below the 783. It looks like one option might be to tackle the low end as a joint venture. To abandon it completely seems to me to just allow Embraer to slowly work its way upwards.

Notice though Airbus's problem is of a slightly larger size. The smallest A350 will be bigger than the smallest 787. Airbus's potential lineup void is larger.

In the end Airbus will likely wait and copy Boeing's product strategy.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
Observer
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RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 11:00 pm

Quoting Cornish (Reply 31):
Nope. Many industry people don't have a clue who he is either. I've been an industry analyst and consultant for long enough now and I've never heard of him - a straw poll amongst my colleagues (some of which are very well known in the industry) elicited the same response.

Type his name into google and I got a whole load of other people that shared his name but not him. Now I'm an aviation analyst and consultant and I type my name in and the first page is full of me and the work I do. Yet I'm not remotely famous. However the list of the clients i work with through my company is far more extensive and contains far more big names than his. The vast majority of you won't know me but many in the industry will be well aware of what I do and have done.

The difference being that the good analysts are busy with full workloads thanks to a tonne of work from clients. The freelance ones that are busy blogging are those that don't have enough good paid work to do and have to get their name out accordingly.....

Let's see--you're in France and people in Europe don't know him because he's in the States; Hamilton shares a common name (notably with the Olympic ice skater) and you're surprised Google comes up with his that name first. You're "too busy" to blog but you have time to Google and survey your collegues. There's a disconnect here. Hamilton is well known in the States.
 
galapagapop
Posts: 864
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2005 2:15 pm

RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 11:29 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 30):
So for airlines wanting new airplanes, B cannot deliver them sooner than A, which changes the aspect of the game. Even IF the 350 is an inferior product, its economics will be superior to the airplanes of this generation. And maybe, just maybe, delivery slots will be more expensive than a lot of people would think...
The announced 787 production ramp-up has not yet been finalised, in spite of last year's proposal.

Exactly people cannot wait 6 years for a plane at Boeing if they need a new generation plane anyway, this is where the A350 can thrive in this market as demand will easily find use for such an A/C even if it's not as efficient, the A350 will be a fine profitable A/C as if the Anet rumour holds true and Airbus is giving them away the economics stand out even more so.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27249
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Wed Jun 27, 2007 11:34 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 32):
While the 199 is OK, 4000 is just too little range for holiday flights from Europe to reach the many isles in the Caribeean or in the Indian Ocean. So 199/4500 please, or better just 757-200 specs at 737/A320 costs.

Well a 757 can barely make that (in theory) and it has the longest legs of any ~200-seat narrowbody around, so if that really something in demand? Would not those charter companies prefer to run widebodies with higher passenger loads?
 
cornish
Posts: 7651
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:05 pm

RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Thu Jun 28, 2007 12:54 am

Quoting Observer (Reply 35):
Let's see--you're in France and people in Europe don't know him because he's in the States; Hamilton shares a common name (notably with the Olympic ice skater) and you're surprised Google comes up with his that name first. You're "too busy" to blog but you have time to Google and survey your collegues. There's a disconnect here. Hamilton is well known in the States.

Since when have I been in France ?  confused 

As I said, I don't consider myself remotely famous in the industry - and my name is shared with many other people. And yes I've worked extensively in the States and all over the world, as well as spoken at international conferences and written in industry journals. About 20 seconds to google and two minutes to ask my boss (who regularly appears on the bbc around the world speaking in the industry) and a couple of other colleagues. I get plenty of information on what I've done in the industry without any fame at all and yet a quick google of him and I get Vancouver hair stylists, fishermen and people blogging about Tokyo clubs.

Face it - his client list is miniscule on his site. He's like many other blogging self publicists doing it to get himself some exposure - a lot of good ones just don't have to. There are far better and far more famous analysts than me in this industry that i respect because of their ability to produce quality work on big name projects across the spectrum. That's what impresses - not some blogger blogging the bleedin obvious.
Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
 
Observer
Posts: 46
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 6:18 am

RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Thu Jun 28, 2007 8:16 am

Quoting Cornish (Reply 38):
Face it - his client list is miniscule on his site. He's like many other blogging self publicists doing it to get himself some exposure - a lot of good ones just don't have to. There are far better and far more famous analysts than me in this industry that i respect because of their ability to produce quality work on big name projects across the spectrum. That's what impresses - not some blogger blogging the bleedin obvious.



Quoting Cornish (Reply 38):
Face it - his client list is miniscule on his site. He's like many other blogging self publicists doing it to get himself some exposure - a lot of good ones just don't have to. There are far better and far more famous analysts than me in this industry that i respect because of their ability to produce quality work on big name projects across the spectrum. That's what impresses - not some blogger blogging the bleedin obvious.

France--Oops, Brain Fart.

Obviously you didn't read his client list intro. Says it's a "partial list."

Interesting that you undertake personal attacks, however, and don't dispute "the obvious." Why is that? (This is a rhetorical question. For some reason you seem to have a personal gripe, so rationality clearly doesn't matter.)
 
Pihero
Topic Author
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Thu Jun 28, 2007 8:40 am

Observer, welcome to A.net.
(Or at least , welcome to the active participants in the forum !)
Looking forward to reading more !

Regards
Contrail designer
 
BoomBoom
Posts: 2459
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:26 am

RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Thu Jun 28, 2007 8:51 am

Quoting Cornish (Reply 31):
Type his name into google and I got a whole load of other people that shared his name but not him.

Type the name of his company, Leeham Co, into Google and it's the first thing that comes up.  Silly
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
jseesue
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2006 5:21 am

RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Thu Jun 28, 2007 9:57 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 10):
He's in the same league as Richard Aboulafia. Something of a love/hate thing.

Actually, they're in two different leagues. Scott Hamilton has always seemed like an Aboulafia-lite. A quick read of their respective bios at leeham.net and tealgroup.com reveals a disparity in their credentials that's embarrassing (for Mr. Hamilton). Aboulafia is an authority on both military and civil aircraft markets (with the education, experience and credibility to back it up), whereas Hamilton only focuses on civil aircraft (with fluffy experience and no stated education).

Hamilton tries way too hard to mimic Aboulafia's insight, analysis and press quips, but ultimately, his comments come off as superficial and uninformed. His little newsletters are usually amusing reads, but most of what he writes is just throw away information that expires as soon as it's published.

Speaking of those newsletters, Hamilton always refers to himself as "We," as if trying to obfuscate the fact that "Leeham Co" is really just a one-person company. (So annoying.)
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1771
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:45 am

RE: Scott Hamilton On Le Bourget, AvsB, AA Orders

Thu Jun 28, 2007 10:18 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 14):
Apparently, on another thread, WingedMigrator is also citing Leeham...and his reference to some B marketing people is even more outlandish than my quoted article.

But I get away with it because of my different drapeau. C'est triste, mais c'est vrai.  Big grin

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