Consultant Says COU Could Support RJ Service

bcoz · Mon Jul 02, 2007 2:24 am

I'm a University of Missouri alum and was a reporter in the area for a few years (covering, from time to time, transportation issues), so I have more than a passing interest in this story. I know we've had some discussion about COU here before, so I thought I would put this out here and see who bites!

From today's Columbia Daily Tribune
http://showmenews.com/2007/Jul/20070701News002.asp

COU's numbers have been dropping steadily for some time now. They've hit an all-time low since TransStates got out of the prop business and pulled service....replaced by Air Midwest B1900 service to STL and MCI as USX. The STL service gets the plug pulled this month (The STL service on USX never made a lot of sense to me given US's significantly larger operation at MCI).

God...I would have loved RJ service on OH to CVG back during my college days when I'd often fly STL-CVG-GSP.

bcoz

AF022 · Mon Jul 02, 2007 2:29 am

Consultants will say anything as long as you pay them enough. If you want to pay a consultant to prove the world is flat, they'll do it.

access-air · Tue Jul 03, 2007 3:07 am

This was why a few years back a local Doctor bought the name Ozark Airlines from TWA and bought 2 Dornier 328Jets and started flying them between COU and MDW and DFW. The Ozark Airlines #2 even had an agreement with American Airlines in DFW the and AAdvantage Frequent Flyer program.
I think they were to add Joplin, Mo. and Bloomington, Il. However, the airline ceased operations after it had entered into an agreement to fly flights between DSM and MDW for AccessAir whilst Access was getting its sh*t together in 1999/2000. They eventually rebranded themselves as Great Plains Airlines and relocted HDQ to Tulsa with their first O&D route from TUL to BNA. Great Plains eventually grew to include routes to OKC, IAD, ABQ, BLV and MDW. They also added three Dornier 328 Props as well. Plagued with engine problems with the Do328Jets, they were forced to either sub Do328Props on Jet routes or cancel flights. Eventually, they too shut down because of moiunting problems, ironically, right after I had flown on them in late November 2003. They were flying as Great Plains operated by Ozark Airlines, which was carried by a small placard by the passenger entry door.
Wish they would have stayed in business....

I also remember Columbia being served by NW AIrlink/Express I Jetstream 31's to/from MDW back in the late 1980s. It didnt last either. I believe that it consisted of a single early morning flight into MDW and back in the evneing. This is not speaking of the many years of Ozark Air Lines #1 and then TWA/TWE service to STL. Of course Air Midwest served COU for many years with service to MCI under the banner of Eastern then Braniff and then USAir.

There are a lot of Midwestern cities that could benefit from good quality air service rather than an airline simply coming in and giving a half assed effort just to collect Govt. Subsidy. I hope COU gets some added air service.

Access-Air

FCYTravis · Tue Jul 03, 2007 4:32 am

Reading through the article, it says the study is based only on travel-agent bookings, ignoring all Internet sales. I can't possibly see how any of this data can be considered useful or relevant, given that fact. It's like doing a sample of book sales while ignoring Amazon.com.

access-air · Tue Jul 03, 2007 11:43 am

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 3):
Reading through the article, it says the study is based only on travel-agent bookings, ignoring all Internet sales. I can't possibly see how any of this data can be considered useful or relevant, given that fact. It's like doing a sample of book sales while ignoring Amazon.com.

You had better believe that Travel Agent infomration is essential...Just tell me how would you think you could track internet bookings? Travel Agents were around long before the airlines decided to let the General Public book their own flights online. Sure they probabaly dont have the volume of business they once had but they do know where people book their trips to.
And if you think you would be able to just look at passenger itineraries of people flying in and out of the Columbia airport, that would not give you the whole picture as it would not include the passengers buying tickets from Agencies or Online that opt to drive themselves over to KC or STL to fly out direct instead of flying locally. You might have had a better chance at that when TWA was still around and then AA before they raped and pillaged TWA's St. louis hub....but after that, not so much. so the Travel Agent is going to give the best amount of information for determining the booking trends of travellers.

I hope that makes some sense. Take it from soneone who has been a travel agent for 18 years.

Access-Air

freshlove1 · Tue Jul 03, 2007 11:52 am

There is a possibility that COU could lose service for a little as from what I have heard Air Midwest is thinking about filing the 90 day notice to stop service. Air Midwest is slowly shutting down and from what we can gather will not be around next year at this time. If this happens this would be a good opportunity for another carrier to come in and offer real air service to several cities to give people options. Possibly American Eagle to STL again or maybe someone from MCI or UA Express from ORD. COU is a nice airport and is definatly not getting what it deserves from Air Midwest (What a surprize!)

WesternA318 · Tue Jul 03, 2007 11:54 am

I remember my days at STL for TWA...and one weekend I did STL-COU-STL-ORD-STL-CDG-STL for kicks, and here was my schedule (found my boarding passes even)

6-8-99:

TW7027 STL-COU 8:37AM 9:24AM Jetstream 31
TW7028 COU-STL 9:45AM 10:25AM Jetstream 31
TW637 STL-ORD 11:05AM 12:16PM MD-80 *this was the Wings of Pride*
UA*** ORD-STL **sorry yall didnt save the boarding pass for this one, but it was the only flight back to STL to catch my CDG hop**
TW818 STL-CDG 4:10PM 7:40AM+1 767-200

6-9-99:

TW819 CDG-STL 10:30AM 1:10PM 767-200

That was my very first time both to COU and CDG, as well as my first time on the Jetstream...

access-air · Tue Jul 03, 2007 12:35 pm

Quoting Freshlove1 (Reply 5):
COU is a nice airport and is definatly not getting what it deserves from Air Midwest (What a surprize!)

Air Midwest is only in it for the EAS money....if COU is an EAS town...Its sad....But then thats what happens when regional airlines decide that smaller cities dont matter and they dump their prop planes for Jets....It happened when the Local Service Airlines pulled out of Small Town America after the Deregulation Act was signed in 1978, but the only diffrence now is that ANY independant small regional is shut out because of all the polarized regional airline code share agreements. They have little or no chance for any decent survival because Major airlines are unwilling to negotiate any reasonable Joint-fares with the smaller Independant carriers... So you have Rural cities suffering form literal isolation, and people must drive hundreds of miles to fly anyplace....Unfortunately, the US also suffers also from the lack of any decent Rail infrastructure like Europe has. It could be done, but who wants to pay for it. Everyone wants transportation to their city but sometimes those cities must help out a little. Mainly by supporting any new service by using it.

I just think that if Air Midwest had taken the time to hammer out a decent joint fare structure between COU and STL with connections to American and flew more than twice per day with a 19 Seat Beech 1900, they might be staying instead of leaving....I can see running only two flights a day if you are using a 50 passenger plane....With a 19 seat plane you need at least three if not four flights to give adequate coverage. Don't you think???

Access-Air

Cubsrule · Tue Jul 03, 2007 12:45 pm

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 7):
I just think that if Air Midwest had taken the time to hammer out a decent joint fare structure between COU and STL with connections to American and flew more than twice per day with a 19 Seat Beech 1900, they might be staying instead of leaving...

The trouble is that when it's an easy 110 mile drive to STL (and it is easy; it's a straight shot down I-70), you need pretty low fares to make the service work. College students (a big chunk of Columbia's population) are more price sensitive than the average consumer and will certainly hop in the car (or on Amtrak) to save $20 or $30. When that's the margin a carrier like YV is looking at, that makes service difficult.

COU might actually do better with service to Chicago, both because it would have better economics on a jet (due to the longer stage length) and because there's more of a local market.

Flighty · Tue Jul 03, 2007 1:41 pm

I was talking with some friends from COU about this over the weekend.

COU has around 90,000 people and is a college town. Lots of people coming and going. There is frequent nonstop bus service COU-STL and COU-MCI.

Neither MCI nor STL is a hub anymore. So people are effectively 2-stopping. COU-STL by bus, then STL-xxx-TPA by plane. 2-stopping is crap.

MSP service with Saab or CRJ might be just the ticket. ORD is too crowded to bring in a new small town, but MSP could take it. At 400 miles, it is a 90 minute prop flight or 1:10 by jet. Then, a quick connection to NW's large MSP network.

If it is priced right, this service could fill planes. Cheap leisure fares, but expensive business fares. It could work. COU is a much bigger city than some of NW's smaller Airlink towns. The STL network is just not very good, so the MSP or ORD network could really add some value (= capture high fares) for the COU people.

[Edited 2007-07-03 06:49:22]

FCYTravis · Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:15 pm

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 4):
I hope that makes some sense. Take it from soneone who has been a travel agent for 18 years.

The point is, data taken only from travel agents is a small and shrinking slice of the total travel market, and creates an entirely unrepresentative and useless "sample" of travel bookings. You can't pretend the entire Internet doesn't exist and come up with any sort of valid conclusion about where and how much people fly.

access-air · Tue Jul 03, 2007 9:30 pm

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 10):
The point is, data taken only from travel agents is a small and shrinking slice of the total travel market, and creates an entirely unrepresentative and useless "sample" of travel bookings. You can't pretend the entire Internet doesn't exist and come up with any sort of valid conclusion about where and how much people fly.

Travis,

Do you mid telling me just how you would be able to track all those "so called" internet bookings??? You have to realize also that its not just AIR FARE alone..There are Tour pakcages and cruises that use air and those also use gateways....Do you also realize that Travelocity, Orbitz, Cheap Tickets, etc... are also Travel Agencies????? How ould you track those bookings?
I am afraid that we must agree to disagree because you have your mind set of how "IRRELEVENT" travel agents have become. There are many things that can be done in a DIY fashion, but travel SHOULD NOT be one of them....

Look at all the DIY-ers on this forum that buy tickets presumably and then come on here ask innumberable questions because they dont even understand the basic rules of airline policies.....
If the reason is because you dont want to pay a ticketing fee, BLAME THE AIRLINES not Travel Agents.

However, before someone comes along and accuses me of going off topic, I will just say that if the COU airport authority or any smaller community is seeking to re-establish its air service and is serious about gathering ACCURATE information they CANNOT exclude travel agents. Have you ever even used a travel agent? Besides, give me your proof that Travel Agents are " entirely unrepresentative and useless" to quote you!!!

Cheers, Access-Air

FCYTravis · Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:41 am

Again, you're missing the point. Travel agencies are not "irrelevant" - but they're not the entire picture, either.

One can no longer look just at travel agency bookings as a representative sample of travel, because there are umpteen other ways to book travel now, and the Internet now dominates.

It's basic statistics, Access-Air. If the "population" we're trying to sample are the people buying airline tickets, travel agency bookings are only X percent of those bookings. A sample consisting of *only* those bookings will not be sufficiently random and will completely ignore a majority of the actual bookings made. Such a non-representative sample cannot be statistically said to have any meaning at all whatsoever outside of that minority subset of the population. It's useless and potentially misleading data.

Flighty · Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:54 am

Yeah, if you are saying the way 95% of people buy tickets is too risky and dangerous, it is time to "let go."

It is true that people misunderstand airline policies. But, they enjoy buying tickets too. Being a travel agent is too much fun to leave it to the travel agents Smile

Cubsrule · Wed Jul 04, 2007 4:44 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 9):
MSP service with Saab or CRJ might be just the ticket. ORD is too crowded to bring in a new small town, but MSP could take it. At 400 miles, it is a 90 minute prop flight or 1:10 by jet. Then, a quick connection to NW's large MSP network.

I wouldn't be shocked to see XJ try COU at some point, though I'm not convinced it would be to MSP and not to MEM. While MSP is a larger market, MEM is closer.

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 12):
A sample consisting of *only* those bookings will not be sufficiently random and will completely ignore a majority of the actual bookings made.

Just out of curiousity, why won't it be sufficiently random?

Flighty · Wed Jul 04, 2007 4:58 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 14):
Just out of curiousity, why won't it be sufficiently random?

He is right, to get a good sample it needs to be random from the whole group, not just travel agent users (who may not be typical people). It's nothing to get emotional about though, let's be respectful...

About COU, yeah MEM is about 130mi closer. It is the closest major airline hub to COU. Easily within Saab range. I do not really know MEM's schedule that well. How many flights per day? It is a reasonable substitute for MSP as a connection facility? Plenty of flights to the top 40 destinations?

access-air · Wed Jul 04, 2007 5:36 am

What is this???? Pick on the Travel Agent?
Like I have said, Travel Agents have the best look at where people fly. By regulations Travel Agencies are required to keep all travel booking information 3-4 years before they can detroy it. So in effect Agencies have 3-4 years worth of Travel data that is ALL IMPORTANT to determining the travel patterns.....

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 12):
Again, you're missing the point. Travel agencies are not "irrelevant" - but they're not the entire picture, either.

No where did I say that it was the EXCLUSIVE source, I said it is the easiest to track.

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 12):
One can no longer look just at travel agency bookings as a representative sample of travel, because there are umpteen other ways to book travel now, and the Internet now dominates.

Yes, and besides Travel Agencies, how would you monitor all these umpteen other ways to book travel????? You cant. Its not anything that is documented as well as thru a travel agency..

Quoting Flighty (Reply 13):
Yeah, if you are saying the way 95% of people buy tickets is too risky and dangerous, it is time to "let go."

It is true that people misunderstand airline policies. But, they enjoy buying tickets too. Being a travel agent is too much fun to leave it to the travel agents

I would not say that 95% of people buy thier own tickets online. Thats an over estimate. Time to let go of what?

Your second part I didnt understand. Please clarify what you are saying.....

Getting back to the Columbia problem, I think that they would do best with 3-4 roundtrips to and from St. Louis tio start. People are creatures of habit and thats where they probably think to fly first for making conenctions to fly beyond STL.
Anyway guys, you have your points I have mine. They are both valid so lets not turn this into a war......Okay?
Im done with it....Ive made my point.....Smile!!!

Access-Air

rampart · Wed Jul 04, 2007 5:40 am

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 12):
It's basic statistics, Access-Air. If the "population" we're trying to sample are the people buying airline tickets, travel agency bookings are only X percent of those bookings. A sample consisting of *only* those bookings will not be sufficiently random and will completely ignore a majority of the actual bookings made. Such a non-representative sample cannot be statistically said to have any meaning at all whatsoever outside of that minority subset of the population. It's useless and potentially misleading data.

I'd like to throw in that X percent using travel agents IS a sample of those buying tickets, by definition it is a subpopulation. It is probably a somewhat specialized subset, though probably with some overlap (i.e. some people, like me, may do online as well as travel agent ticket purchasing). WIthout looking at the study, we have no idea whether it's random or not. Chances are, it was, among the travel-agent-booking population. It would have plenty of meaning, particularly to that subset. Is it nonrepresentative of the whole traveling population? We can't say for sure, again without seeing the study. Arguments can be made both ways. I can certainly see your argument, which is valid. The report should be seen as what it is, nothing more. Still useful, I think. A better and more complete study would also try to look at some set of data encompassing the online purchaser.

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 2):
Great Plains eventually grew to include routes to OKC, IAD, ABQ, BLV and MDW

You probably also remember that GP also served COS (like Access Air did, briefly!). Krispy Kreme donuts! (oddly, also running on hard times).

Quoting Flighty (Reply 15):
How many flights per day? It is a reasonable substitute for MSP as a connection facility? Plenty of flights to the top 40 destinations?

I think MEM, while a smaller hub, still handles most of the top destination. It misses some important cities out west (SLC, PDX, SAN, ABQ), but hits most of the Midwest and East, and includes points in Canada and even a link to Amsterdam.

I think a better link, notwithstanding status of the airline, would be UAX with a connection to DEN and ORD, or DL with connections at SLC (getting long) and CVG.

COU would also seem to be a reasonable target for Allegiant, though not offering all that the business, government, and academic community might need.

-Rampart

imapilotaz · Wed Jul 04, 2007 7:23 am

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 11):
However, before someone comes along and accuses me of going off topic, I will just say that if the COU airport authority or any smaller community is seeking to re-establish its air service and is serious about gathering ACCURATE information they CANNOT exclude travel agents. Have you ever even used a travel agent? Besides, give me your proof that Travel Agents are " entirely unrepresentative and useless" to quote you!!!

I can assure you that in 95% of the smaller communities in the midwest that are served out of MCI, the vast majority of the traffic is generated from:

1. Airline Website 60%
2. Airline Phone Number 20%
3. Other Internet Sites. 15%
4. Travel Agents 5%

Travel agents in these smaller markets are 'niche' and will mainly specialize in packages. Most will not even book airfare without a package (cruise, tour, etc) because there is no money in it for them. They are not useless, as there are 1 or 2 markets that have a very large percentage booked by travel agencies. That is not the norm.

FCYTravis · Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:16 am

Access-Air, please do not selectively quote me. I *did not* say that "travel agents are unrepresentative and useless." What I said is that *data* taken exclusively from travel agents is unrepresentative of the traveling public and is generally useless if you're trying to come up with a sample of who is flying where from a given community.

Flighty · Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:13 pm

Quoting Rampart (Reply 17):
COU would also seem to be a reasonable target for Allegiant, though not offering all that the business, government, and academic community might need.

Yes, my COU friends did say that Allegiant was rumored to be scouting out COU. Allegiant already serves SGF, Springfield/Branson Missouri, 122 mi to the south of Columbia.

freshlove1 · Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:19 pm

Yes that woundn't be a bad idea. If you go down past the USAirways Express ticket counter there is another ticket counter with enough space that could easily allow them to set up shop there. The ramp is more then large enough to accomidate an MD-80. Only problem may be the boarding area as that is a little cramped.

Cubsrule · Fri Jul 06, 2007 10:29 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 15):

He is right, to get a good sample it needs to be random from the whole group, not just travel agent users (who may not be typical people). It's nothing to get emotional about though, let's be respectful...

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 19):
What I said is that *data* taken exclusively from travel agents is unrepresentative of the traveling public and is generally useless if you're trying to come up with a sample of who is flying where from a given community.

For the data from travel agents to be a problem, it'd have to differ signficantly from the larger sample. Let's use an aviation example. Say I wanted to know something about ORD passengers. If I only sampled those departing between 6 AM and 12 PM, I wouldn't have a representative sample (I'd miss most of the international passengers!). But if I sampled those leaving between 12 PM and 6 PM, I'd have a much better sample even though I'm still not getting the whole picture.

By the same token, if those who use travel agents travel more to California or more on Saturdays or more on UA than those who do not, then it wouldn't be an especially useful sample. But we don't know that they do.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 15):
How many flights per day? It is a reasonable substitute for MSP as a connection facility? Plenty of flights to the top 40 destinations?

MEM would actually serve COU fairly well as a connecting facility because it is heavily banked and NW makes an effort to serve many smaller markets from MEM (especially in the midwest, naturally). To MEM, 2 daily Saab flights (the same service that cities like AEX, PAH, TRI, and TUP have) would more than cover the vast majority of connections people from COU would want.

atct · Fri Jul 06, 2007 10:44 am

Personally,

A few Saabs a day to MEM, CRJ's to CVG, or even E-135's to DFW (AA) would be within reason. Let alone SkyWest CRJ2's to ORD, Skyway Dojets to MKE, 4-5 Great Lakes B1900s to STL...the possibilities are endless.(not all at once mind you, just one of em)

ATCT

bcoz · Fri Jul 06, 2007 11:13 am

Quoting Freshlove1 (Reply 21):
The ramp is more then large enough to accomidate an MD-80. Only problem may be the boarding area as that is a little cramped.

Earlier article I read in the CoMo Trib said Allegiant indicated that 2/20 at 6501 ft wasn't long enough to handle an MD-80 departure loaded with enough fuel to get to LAS.

And frankly, I don't think the leisure (so to speak) market is the untapped one here. It's the college kids that flock into MU from out of state for the journalism program (like yours truly), the academic community, state government from Jefferson City, and the insurance industry (State Farm, among others, has a large operation there).

After reading these replies, I think NW Airlink service to MEM or MSP makes the most sense. Thing is that the fares NEED to be the same or no more than $50 more than STL roundtrip or it makes more sense for a college kid to jump on MoEX.

bcoz

JohnJ · Fri Jul 06, 2007 11:19 am

Quoting Bcoz (Thread starter):
I'm a University of Missouri alum

Me too! Bachelor of Journalism, 1988 and my wife is a BS in Education 1988. I attended the university 1985-early 1988 and back in those days Ozark ran a DC-9 to STL and TW Express ran t-props also to STL. For a brief period in 1987 NW Airlink ran a turboprop down to Memphis. One of the best weekends I spent with my wife prior to getting married was after I left school and flew her down to Memphis for a weekend on that flight (my hometown is Memphis). I remember the ticket I bought her was COU-JAN with a change of planes in Memphis - it was somewhat cheaper than buying a ticket to MEM. She carried on her bag and simply didn't take the connection. Back in those days the airlines hadn't caught onto to this little scheme and we got away with it.

While in school I had only a couple of occasions to use air travel, once for a quick trip to Memphis and once for a spring break trip to Los Angeles. In both instances I drove to St. Louis vs. using COU.

freshlove1 · Fri Jul 06, 2007 12:17 pm

Quoting Bcoz (Reply 24):
Earlier article I read in the CoMo Trib said Allegiant indicated that 2/20 at 6501 ft wasn't long enough to handle an MD-80 departure loaded with enough fuel to get to LAS.

That may be true. I dont know what the runway length is in COU, just the ramp area. Depands what their operation specs are. Its a 1270 mile trip - COU-LAS

Cubsrule · Fri Jul 06, 2007 12:25 pm

Quoting Freshlove1 (Reply 26):
Its a 1270 mile trip - COU-LAS

I have a hard time believing that it's just a runway performance issue. After all, S80s ran MDW-DFW (same runway length essentially) for years and years with no trouble. While that's a shorter trip, the M83s perform better than AA's 82s.

bcoz · Fri Jul 06, 2007 11:00 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 27):
I have a hard time believing that it's just a runway performance issue. After all, S80s ran MDW-DFW (same runway length essentially) for years and years with no trouble. While that's a shorter trip, the M83s perform better than AA's 82s.

FWIW, here is the article in question that indicates a runway issues exists.... I don't know if it is true or not. The Allegiant spokesperson says runway length is "an issue." And the CoMo city manager says 2/20 would have to be lengthened to 8,000 ft.

http://archive.columbiatribune.com/2007/jun/20070618news006.asp

bcoz

JohnJ · Fri Jul 06, 2007 11:19 pm

I don't know what the takeoff performance characteristics of a 737-700 are vs. an MD-80, but Continental uses 737-700s from Orange County, CA's (SNA) 5701' runway 1L/19R out to Newark, a distance of 2433 miles. COU-LAS is about half that distance.