ebs757
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The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:24 am



This guy seems crazy but the point at hand (if true) is startling to me. Is it this bad?
Viva la Vida
 
DLPMMM
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:14 pm

I call shinanigans!!!!

There is no shortage of pilots.

This guy is daft!
 
freshlove1
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:29 pm

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 1):
There is no shortage of pilots.

Correct, but there is a shortage of quality pilots. From what I can gather and from what I see on a daily basis it seems as if most of the problems will point to the regionals as those min's are very low. I to have heard from some of our pilots that the F/O's they fly with are clueless. Yeah most of them are right out of training but when you start flying for real and it's not a sim you better know what to do in any situation as most of the time you only get one chance.
 
pdxcof9
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:44 pm

Living in trash bags?
This guy is full of crap!!!
Flown:733,4,7,8,752,763,TU3,CRJ,7,EM2,ER3,4,318,19,346,M80,90 Worked:CRJ,7,9,EM2,ER4,733,5,7,8,9,752,3,318,9
 
dampfnudel
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:47 pm

I spoke with a pilot recently and we discussed this. Before we parted ways, he told me that he was glad that he was close to retirement.
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5

AA AI CO CL DE DL EA HA KL LH N7 PA PQ SK RO TW UA YR
 
goboeing
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 1:04 pm

Quoting Pdxcof9 (Reply 3):
Living in trash bags?
This guy is full of crap!!!

He said "crash pads."

And if you don't know what that refers to it's the apartments/houses that pilots and flight attendants share with 2-20 other crewmembers at the domicile. Pilots and FAs that live out of base use them rather than buying a certain amount of hotel rooms per month when they can't get home on the last day of a trip or have to come in the night before a trip starts.

[Edited 2007-07-04 06:05:07]
 
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calpsafltskeds
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 1:10 pm

If you listen to many there is so much to be worried about, old FAA equipment, overworked controllers, crowded hubs, terrorism, foreign pilots who don't speak English, and under qualified pilots, etc. Of course, lower pay is always listed.

I guess if you believe this guy, you should stay away from RJ's, where the junior pilots are assigned and hope that another aircraft doesn't run into you.

[Edited 2007-07-04 06:11:38]
 
trekster
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 2:34 pm

Id be more worried if he was piloting a plane I was in?????

Stop ur scaremongering
Where does the time go???
 
Jpax
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 2:50 pm

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 6):
I guess if you believe this guy, you should stay away from RJ's, where the junior pilots are assigned and hope that another aircraft doesn't run into you.

That quite reminds me of how all those crappy weather, short runway, miserable condition, rough approach airports have rookie pilots flying them. The nice, sunny, laid-back airports get the guys with all the experience.

Seniority at its best.  Wink
 
ViveLeYHZ
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 3:01 pm

This guy has a point. He might be too alarmist for my own taste, but he does raise a good point.

I always try to avoid regional carriers, because I like to fly on big jets with qualified pilots. No airline will let some guy with few hundred hours of flight be a FO on a B763 or even an A319 (no disrespect intended). More importantly, what I do not like about regional carriers is that airlines use them not only to fly to remote low-volume airports, but also to arm-twist the mainline pilots for wage concessions.

That said, I cannot place all the blame on the airlines themselves, the FAA, the LCC-pressure and even the traveling public all share the blame. Airlines cannot keep lowering their fares without lowering their standards too.

At any rate, I would like to see what more qualified A-netters think of this video.

Have a fun and safe 4th of July everyone.

ViveLeYHZ
 
ADXMatt
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 5:13 pm

There are many ways to look at this.

The requirements are lower # of hours to get a job but at the same time the a/c are so much more advanced then they were in the past and the pilots do more monitoring of the systems.

It all comes down to the level of quality one gets in training. I could have 3000 hours of flying, but if my basic training was poor to bad then I am most likely not flying well and will have a harder time learning later after my bad habits are ingrained.

Now one point made in the video is when something goes wrong they may not have the skills and experience of hand flying the plane and to know the feel and being in sync with it. This I think will make the difference.

I don't know the date that this video was produced but just like a horoscope you can see how events match up to the prediction if you look hard enough. i.e. ASA taking off on the wrong runway, an RJ running off the end of the runway in CLE in snow or rain I can't remember. The Pinacle a/c that crashed on a ferry flight. A trans states prop that crashed on approach. etc. What we need to do is look at the statistics from years gone by to see if there is a trend.

It will probably show that flying is safer then it was before. But will it stay that way?
 
ThirtyEcho
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 5:48 pm

Let me see: flying in an airliner in the USA is safer than it has ever been in the years before.

There is nothing going on today that competes with the crash-happy 1930s,1940s, 1950s and 1960s. Training is infinitely improved; I am an old fudd with almost 50 years of active flying under my belt and I know 19 year old instrument rated pilots, of both sexes, who fly competently enough so that I'd gladly take a nap in the back seat of a 172 while they flew.

This brain warped old fool is s good argument for mandatory retirement at age 60.

My uncle was a B-24 SQUADRON COMMANDER, at age 24, during WWII. By this old fart's reasoning, Germany must have won the war, right?
 
n710ps
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 6:40 pm

Quoting ViveLeYHZ (Reply 9):
I always try to avoid regional carriers, because I like to fly on big jets with qualified pilots

Excuse me? And just what is underqualified? I have been flying planes since I was approx 9 when I first took the con on a c172 with my dad and have been in Jets since I was 19. Since wehen are RJ pilots underqualified. A good batch of my airlines captains and a few F/O's are from US mainline orig. Not only that but I know a few regional pilots close to retirement. Eat your words now please. I am tired of people bashing regionals and their pilots. Just because our hair is not grey, we are wrinkle free, and do not require viagra to enjoy a night out does not mean we are underqualified. I have 190 grand worth of college, flight school and a log book to show my experince along with a type in Lears.

[Edited 2007-07-04 11:44:34]
There is plenty of room for Gods animals, right next to the mashed potatoes!
 
ltbewr
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 7:04 pm

I didn't see the video, but may I suggest that their is a decline in the number of the preferred people who make the choice to become a commercial or airline pilot at a time of increasing demand. The high costs of entry to become a pilot, fewer young people involved in GA, young people wanting employment with less personal responsibility for lives and an earlier payoff, our increasingly crowed skies, tight physical exam requirements as well as fewer people flying in our military may all be factors.
 
Lumberton
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 8:48 pm

I love the internet. Anyone can now post anything about anything and some will accept it as gospel.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
n710ps
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 8:57 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 14):
love the internet. Anyone can now post anything about anything and some will accept it as gospel.

This is mainly because the average person is too lazy and dumb to think, study, or philosophize for themselves anymore. Not only that but it leaves on this site much to be desired where the gen pop is masceradeing teenagers as it is.
There is plenty of room for Gods animals, right next to the mashed potatoes!
 
777236ER
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:03 pm

Actually, this pilot should be telling everyone that 55% of all aircrashes are caused by the flight crew. http://www.boeing.com/news/techissues/pdf/statsum.pdf

So I agree with him that pilot problems are going to cause more and more crashes as systems get safer and safer, hence all manufacturers should head towards pilotless aircraft.
Your bone's got a little machine
 
Lumberton
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:07 pm

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 16):
Actually, this pilot should be telling everyone that 55% of all aircrashes are caused by the flight crew.

I was watching a segment on NGC last night about the NSTB investigations into the uncommanded rudder movements on the Boeing 737 crashes in Colorado Springs & Pittsburgh last night. This program mentioned that the figure was 70%!
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
n710ps
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:11 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 17):

This is accounting for GA asw well. I can think of several catostrophic incidents where ATC or a tech issue was the cause. Human Error is certainly a majority though I will agree. Driving is the same though. The statistics speak.
There is plenty of room for Gods animals, right next to the mashed potatoes!
 
777236ER
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:23 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 17):
I was watching a segment on NGC last night about the NSTB investigations into the uncommanded rudder movements on the Boeing 737 crashes in Colorado Springs & Pittsburgh last night. This program mentioned that the figure was 70%!

It depends on what time period you consider and what you do about cases when there are more than one contributory cause. But it's clear that pilots cause the majority of air crashes.
Your bone's got a little machine
 
Kuna
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 12:06 am

Quoting N710PS (Reply 12):

I agree with you 100%, I may not be a pilot, but I work for a regional carrier. It gets old listening to people slam me and my fellow co-workers because we are a regional. Where do people thing that the mainline pilots went when they were furloughed?
Pinnacle Airlines
 
ikramerica
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 12:09 am

And yet we are having fewer crashes than ever in the USA...

More flights in real numbers and fewer crashes in real numbers, means a dropping percentage of accidents.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
highflyer9790
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 12:15 am

Quoting ViveLeYHZ (Reply 9):
No airline will let some guy with few hundred hours of flight be a FO on a B763 or even an A319 (no disrespect intended).

Many european airlines do. LH and LX for example like many other european carriers have their own training program. they take 0 hour street guys and put them through their own training, finishing with some A320 FOs having less then 300 hours. they train them to their specifics, etc., so they know what to expect from their newly placed FOs. here in the US, no airline will train a person from 0 hours up. the pilot has to go to the airline with his own resume and 1000 hours in his logbook to get noticed. no guaruntee on how he was trained.

maybe someone can add to that.

highflyer
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SNCNtry32
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 12:18 am

Quoting N710PS (Reply 12):
I am tired of people bashing regionals and their pilots.

Amen. Regional pilots are just as qualified.

Quoting Kuna (Reply 20):
I agree with you 100%, I may not be a pilot, but I work for a regional carrier. It gets old listening to people slam me and my fellow co-workers because we are a regional. Where do people thing that the mainline pilots went when they were furloughed?

I too work for a regional. We work hard for our money, and at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is that you got to your destination safely.
Long Live Memphis!
 
ikramerica
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 12:26 am

Quoting HighFlyer9790 (Reply 22):
they take 0 hour street guys and put them through their own training, finishing with some A320 FOs having less then 300 hours.

Then it's not a dangerous problem, because the EU has high standards.

Thus unless this guy thinks USA citizens are morons who can't be trained, he is the moron.

Further, as I said above, we have had a huge increase in flight numbers in this country, and yet overall crashes in real numbers (not just a percentage) have declined dramatically as well. Where are all these pilots coming from? And if they are so unsafe, why don't the statistics show us an out of control increase in accidents?
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
cumulus
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 12:33 am

He's a mental case, you can see it in his eyes.
What Goes Up Must Come Down, Hopefully In One Piece!
 
highflyer9790
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 12:40 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 24):
Then it's not a dangerous problem, because the EU has high standards.

Thus unless this guy thinks USA citizens are morons who can't be trained, he is the moron.

Further, as I said above, we have had a huge increase in flight numbers in this country, and yet overall crashes in real numbers (not just a percentage) have declined dramatically as well. Where are all these pilots coming from? And if they are so unsafe, why don't the statistics show us an out of control increase in accidents?

also, EU pilots aren't filled and dont pass along the crap that is fed here in the US. here,anytime quality of living comes up for a pilot, they go on a tyrade because evryone else does. at least in the EU, they are still civilized and not like lions biting the CEO's head off.
121
 
catdaddy63
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 1:00 am

Each airline has it's own criteria for hiring. I'd bet there are high hour pilots that wash out of the training programs while some low time pilots do quite well. It all depends on the quality of training that got them to that point.
 
ahdharia
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 1:15 am

The matter of reality is that the USA is still the safest Aviation Industry in the world. I personally know people coming from other countries to train here, get their certifications/ratings and then going back to their original country to be a pilot.

I am currently a GA pilot, and have been looking very heavily in the different training programs available for commercial pilots. There is a shortage of pilots. That we can easily see as regionals are expanding and hiring. In fact a lot of mainline carriers are still hiring. The requirements have gotten lower mainly because the pay has gotten lower, hence with less pay, less people want to join the industry. So therefore something had to give to entice people to join. Lowering the minimums help this industry become a reachable goal for many individuals. However with the lowered minimums, I highly call that unsafe. I know quite a few pilots who have trained at these training schools around the country and are now flying for regional carriers. And I personally have flown with quite a few of them, and believe me I definitely think they are very well experience and capable of flying for the regionals.

Heck alot of pilots still go from the regionals to the mainlines.
 
OPNLguy
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 2:11 am

Quoting Cumulus (Reply 25):
He's a mental case, you can see it in his eyes.

Thank you doctor, er, captain. Did you use your X-ray vision to do a CAT scan, PET scan, or MRI to confirm your diagnosis?  Wink

Personally, I think his comments raise more questions. Were any of his opinions (and let's keep in mind that that's all they are) based hard facts? Anecdotal evidence? Bar talk? I'm certainly not saying he's not entitled to his own opinion(s), just that personal opinions are often subjective, and prone to bias and other non-objective elements.

As far as lowered hiring standards, what airlines are doing this? At mine, they are:

Flight Experience:
2,500 hours total or 1,500 hours TURBINE total. Additionally, a minimum of 1,000 hours in Turbine aircraft as the Pilot in command, as defined below is required. Southwest considers only Pilot time in fixed wing aircraft. This specifically excludes simulator, helicopter, WSO, RIO, FE, NAV, EWO etc. NO other time is counted.


Anyone know of a link where the hiring requirements for all the various airlines are detailed?
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
0newair0
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 2:47 am

Airline Industry Greed: The industry is not greedy. The management is greedy.

Airline Industry Uncaring and Inefficient: Uncaring…yes. Inefficient, no.

Pilot Shortage: It is here for the regionals. It is coming for the majors.

Reduced hiring requirements: Regionals…yes. Majors..slightly but not as much.

New pilots not having a God Dam clue, Accidents looking for a crash site and the “have no business being there” lines: Sir, those pilots passed the same system and procedures tests that you did.


...It sounds like he is still with a regional….am I wrong?
That's not how this works! That's not how any of this works!
 
Kuna
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 2:52 am

I want to know if this guy was fired...

Kinda going along with what OPNLguy said, personal opinions are biased and are that personal opinions. It seemed like he had it out for whatever regional he worked for. I say regional because he referred to them mostly, I have no proof of him working for a regional, its just what I have assumed from the video.
Pinnacle Airlines
 
OPNLguy
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 2:52 am

Quoting 0NEWAIR0 (Reply 31):
...It sounds like he is still with a regional….am I wrong?

Or maybe a senior mainline guy who got kicked down to a RJ-type aircraft within the same airline, and is now flying with some really junior folks? (The "management" of his airline notwithstanding, nor endorsed.)

I have no idea--but it's just another possible personal bias in his opinion...
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
SPREE34
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 3:01 am

Quoting ViveLeYHZ (Reply 9):
At any rate, I would like to see what more qualified A-netters think of this video.

He is right on the money as far as his comments on the FAA.

Quoting ThirtyEcho (Reply 11):
This brain warped old fool is s good argument for mandatory retirement at age 60.

Brain warped? Nah, he's just recovering from bypass surgery. Or so it says on YouTube. I saw this 2 days ago on another ATC site. The delivery may be questionable, but he is "spot on" on some stuff. Maybe the drugs just relaxed him enough to speak out.

Quoting N710PS (Reply 15):
This is mainly because the average person is too lazy and dumb to think, study, or philosophize for themselves anymore.

AMEN BROTHER! !! !!!

Quoting Ahdharia (Reply 29):
The matter of reality is that the USA is still the safest Aviation Industry in the world.

Debatable. If so, not by the margin we once were and we are in decline. The margins we once maintained are not there anymore. The short term bottom line mentality has become prevalent.

Quoting Ahdharia (Reply 29):
I personally know people coming from other countries to train here,

That's because they can't afford the cost in their home countries. Countries who have adopted User Fee systems very much like that Marion Blakey's FAA wants to shove up our aft openings.
I don't understand everything I don't know about this.
 
threepoint
Posts: 1294
Joined: Fri Oct 14, 2005 10:49 am

RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 3:18 am

Quoting ViveLeYHZ (Reply 9):
No airline will let some guy with few hundred hours of flight be a FO on a B763 or even an A319

Go to India or China and you will see that you are wrong. I have personally trained students that were hired by majors in India flying right seat (hopefully beside a longtime captain) in a 737 or a 320 with just over 250 hours total time. Although I consider myself a good instructor, I do not feel experienced enough in airline operations to properly train a marginal candidate for operating those types. The solo time these candidates flew was unfortunately unstructured and the flight school at which I used to work was simply not capable of preparing students for any but the most elementary type of flying.

Quoting HighFlyer9790 (Reply 22):
LH and LX for example like many other european carriers have their own training program. they take 0 hour street guys and put them through their own training, finishing with some A320 FOs having less then 300 hours. they train them to their specifics, etc., so they know what to expect from their newly placed FOs.

Airlines that run their own direct entry cadet training programs often have the luxury of selecting only the best and brightest and have a training regime that is second to none. Just like EU, US and Canadian military flyers, these low-time candidates emerge with more than ample qualifications and ability to operate their assigned aircraft. We should be so lucky to receive such training.
The nice thing about a mistake is the pleasure it gives others.
 
0newair0
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 3:36 am

Quoting OPNLguy (Reply 33):
Or maybe a senior mainline guy who got kicked down to a RJ-type aircraft within the same airline

My logic behind thinking that he was still with a regional was that he specifically said his airline's min. hiring requirements were dropped down into the 250 total time range with little to no Multi. and Inst. time. And, I believe that larger carriers that operate RJs with mainline pilots (jetBlue for example) have higher mins than regional carriers.
That's not how this works! That's not how any of this works!
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 3:38 am

This guy flies for a living? Christ - he's freakin right....If he's a pilot and he's the one crashing. What a freaking nut job.

Quoting HighFlyer9790 (Reply 22):
Many european airlines do. LH and LX for example like many other european carriers have their own training program. they take 0 hour street guys and put them through their own training, finishing with some A320 FOs having less then 300 hours. they train them to their specifics, etc., so they know what to expect from their newly placed FOs. here in the US, no airline will train a person from 0 hours up. the pilot has to go to the airline with his own resume and 1000 hours in his logbook to get noticed. no guaruntee on how he was trained.

ab initio is not new, and is likely to produce a better pilot - it was the entire basis for 141's creation. The odd thing, if US carriers pursue this to gain new crews it might acually benefit the industry and restore some nobility to being a pilot once again.

[Edited 2007-07-04 20:41:00]
 
jbernie
Posts: 206
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 4:08 am

As much as experience and quality training is very important in emergency situations, it doesn't matter how good or bad your ability is if you can't stay calm enough to put your knowledge into effect.

Unfortunately in some situations there is nothing you can do, but hopefully with more experience/knowledge a pilot knows how to avoid those situations which can be avoided.
 
UN_B732
Posts: 3532
Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2001 12:57 am

RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 4:11 am

250TT? Who is he working for, Trans States?

Also, in Europe there's a system where they take well-qualified pilots right off the street, train them in an airline program, and there are 747 F/Os with ~ 500 hours flying at KLM, with very experienced captains, however. They have it set so a junior F/O will only fly with a senior captain, by not having all pilots flying at all times. [this has been mentioned above]

-A

PS: I wrote a response to this guy about how any of these safety issues should be limited to the regionals, where he may be partially true (Pinnacle 3701, Comair 5191) we'll see how he responds.

[Edited 2007-07-04 21:23:02]
What now?
 
n710ps
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RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 4:23 am

I watched the video again when I was out of the view of co workers in a hot room and my take is that this guy is simply a disgruntled furlough etc etc etc..... I think he has it all wrong honestly. There are those that can fly and those that just cannot because I have worked with folks that has 15,000 hours in their log books and most of it with an airline, you know, grey hair a divorce, and all that jazz and some of THEM were less competent than I . Who is he to make the statements and judgements he is. I agree 250 hours and you jump inot in some cases a 170 is totally obsurd. You do not have the knowladge and experince nor the competence just yet in my thoughts but I also think that there is a fledgeling group out there flying with the regionals that have what it takes by form of passion, willpower and determination in their study and not just pure flight time but flight philosophy. I got into my first jet a Lear mind you at 310 hours total time in my log book. I learned a ton but I also felt that I was good enough by that point becauce of the fantastic mentouring I was given through my progression to prepare me.

On another note, I would like to commend some of the fledgelings in particular at Colgan. It takes dedication to fly for a airline like them with the way they work and are payed for their dedication. Flying a BE1900 in the Northeast during the winter with no autopilot and some very challenging airports that our own company refuses to fly is a fantastic learning experince. I credit them for their professionalisim and airmenship skills. They are in alot of cases better than some of the guys flying for the home airline. I look at some of the more seinor guys and say wait a second here you were a mainline guy and now your flying a CRJ and you are like this?

Moral of the rant is that each is their own and we all go through the same rigors, we all do those dreaded checkrides, the sim flights, the clasroom time etc etc etc... and some just have it. People underestimate the regionals.
There is plenty of room for Gods animals, right next to the mashed potatoes!
 
727forever
Posts: 304
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2006 12:50 pm

RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 4:40 am

I think this guy is venting his concerns about the direction that the industry is taking. While is approach is questionable, his concerns are valid. Many airline pilots are talking about this very thing because we are concerned about who we are sharing the sky with.

Low time pilots with good training are not necessarily dangerous. I did IOE instruction in a CRJ on a lot of low time interns several years back. They did a nice job of understanding the automation. They were generally very weak with regard to weather avoidance, ATC management, and aircraft handling. With very attentive instruction they learned fast. The problem is that it take 2 to 3 years as an FO before these pilots mature to the point of being ready to be a Captain themselves if, very important if, they continue to fly with experienced Captains that mentor them and teach them how to be a good Captain. The problem is that upgrade times continue to slip lower and lower with and the experience of Captains is slipping. This is resulting in no to very little mentoring taking place making weaker and weaker Captains of the low time guys who uprade at the minimum time.

I agree with the old guy in the video that unless pay increases, particularly at the regional level, to keep the experienced pilots in the business, the level of experience will fall to the point that we start seeing RJs on the nightly news on a regular basis. This will be compounded by the fact that the RJs are starting to get a few years on them now and ICAOs new Multi-Crew License (MPL) is coming which will put FOs in the airplane with only 10 hours of actual airplane time. The balance will be simulator experience which can not adequately replicate real world experience.

Let's all hope that managements greed stops and experienced pilots stay in the industry soon.

727forever
727forever
 
Alias1024
Posts: 2553
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:13 am

RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 5:07 am

The guy seems like he is a bit crazy, but does raise some valid points. The most dangerous part about the 250 hour pilot is that they don't realize how little they actually know. I'm just waiting to see what happens on the flight with a Captain who was hired at 250 hours and just upgraded at ATP mins, a 250 hour new-hire FO just past their 75 hours for crew pairing purposes, and a emergency gets thrown into the picture.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
ual777
Posts: 1641
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:18 am

RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 5:07 am

Quoting UN_B732 (Reply 39):
250TT? Who is he working for, Trans States?

He flies for Piedmont.
It is always darkest before the sun comes up.
 
n710ps
Posts: 1116
Joined: Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:09 am

RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 5:54 am

Quoting Ual777 (Reply 43):

Or PSA. Same standard. I agree with that being acarey. 250 and you barely got your ears dried off in the cockpit all together. At least another 100 before you start entering your aviation pubescence.
There is plenty of room for Gods animals, right next to the mashed potatoes!
 
hsw3rd
Posts: 7
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2006 11:04 am

RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 6:35 am

This gentleman is a ripe case for retirement. He reminds me of the Eastern pilot who was "so fed up with the system" that he set the parking brake in the taxi line, got up, and walked off the airplane via the aft airstair. There's nothing wrong with being fed up; if you can't take it, retire.
 
GivenRandy
Posts: 49
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 11:04 am

RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 6:43 am

Practice makes permanent, not perfect.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 14964
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 7:10 am

Quoting Ahdharia (Reply 29):
However with the lowered minimums, I highly call that unsafe. I know quite a few pilots who have trained at these training schools around the country and are now flying for regional carriers. And I personally have flown with quite a few of them, and believe me I definitely think they are very well experience and capable of flying for the regionals.

So you call it unsafe and then right in the next sentence say you trained with these young bucks and think they are safe. So, is it unsafe or is it safe?

The reason there are TWO pilots in the cockpit is to mitigate the variations in skills and training, so that the combined "cockpit workforce" is highly skilled. It takes an EXTREME breakdown in communication like in the recent Comair crash to have an accident in this country, and that accident was more likely to happen to a seasoned pilot who was "used to" all the airports.

Ultimately, the complaints about safety, regional inexperience and pay all come from older pilots who think they are better and more valuable because they are OLDER. There is no evidence of this. Performance peaks in any skills related job and then deteriorates over time. It doesn't just continue to escalate through death.

Look at the game of golf. The best golfers are late 20s to late 30s. And anyone who knows about golf knows that consistency, coordination and skill are far more important than strength. If you hit the ball perfectly every time, even if you don't swing hard, you'll score well. If you can do it under pressure, you will be a champion.

Yet when the best golfers in HISTORY pass 45, they can't cut it anymore. They no longer have the coordination and ability under pressure despite having more experience and "wisdom" than the younger guys. Since skill and consistency trump strength, the older guys have lost both skill and consistency, and a bit of their nerve.

Flying a plane also requires skill and consistency and performance under pressure. If there is any impending problem, it's with 65 year old pilots commanding next to 55 year old FOs, not a 25 year old FO sitting next to a 35 year old pilot, even if the combined hours of the two "old guys" is 5x the younger guys...

And yet with modern aircraft systems, I doubt there is such an impending problem...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
doug_or
Posts: 3236
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2000 9:55 am

RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 7:38 am

Melodramtic? yes. I don't think we'll "see them making headlines in the fall when the wheather gets bad".

Quoting Catdaddy63 (Reply 27):
Each airline has it's own criteria for hiring. I'd bet there are high hour pilots that wash out of the training programs while some low time pilots do quite well. It all depends on the quality of training that got them to that point.

Absolutely. The highest time pilots washed out of my newhire class.

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 37):
ab initio is not new, and is likely to produce a better pilot - it was the entire basis for 141's creation. The odd thing, if US carriers pursue this to gain new crews it might acually benefit the industry and restore some nobility to being a pilot once again.

I definately agree with this. 300 meaningful hours of intense goal oriented flight training is much more meaningful than tooling around in a seminole or teaching lazy 8s for the 40,000th time.

Quoting 727forever (Reply 41):
Low time pilots with good training are not necessarily dangerous. I did IOE instruction in a CRJ on a lot of low time interns several years back. They did a nice job of understanding the automation. They were generally very weak with regard to weather avoidance, ATC management, and aircraft handling. With very attentive instruction they learned fast. The problem is that it take 2 to 3 years as an FO before these pilots mature to the point of being ready to be a Captain themselves if, very important if, they continue to fly with experienced Captains that mentor them and teach them how to be a good Captain. The problem is that upgrade times continue to slip lower and lower with and the experience of Captains is slipping. This is resulting in no to very little mentoring taking place making weaker and weaker Captains of the low time guys who uprade at the minimum time.

Spot on (and also why I think his prediction of fall crashes is so eroneous). I would assume those interns were probably pretty sharp (hence why they were able to get the internship). I would also assume the average pilot with similar times would be, on average, less capable. Your point about reduced upgrade times is really the key, though. Pinacle 3701 would probably by a good example of this. There is talk right now about street captains at Pinnacle and Colgan (probably other places too), becuase they don't have enough qaulified FOs to upgrade to captain. That will be mean super low time FOs paired with cpatains who may have very little experience in turbine equipment or the 121 environement.

Quoting Alias1024 (Reply 42):
The guy seems like he is a bit crazy, but does raise some valid points. The most dangerous part about the 250 hour pilot is that they don't realize how little they actually know. I'm just waiting to see what happens on the flight with a Captain who was hired at 250 hours and just upgraded at ATP mins, a 250 hour new-hire FO just past their 75 hours for crew pairing purposes, and a emergency gets thrown into the picture.

Its those unknown uknowns that will get you

Quoting Ual777 (Reply 43):
He flies for Piedmont.

That's why he looks so familiar!
When in doubt, one B pump off
 
Salukipilot
Posts: 127
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2005 12:13 pm

RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 7:41 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 46):
So you call it unsafe and then right in the next sentence say you trained with these young bucks and think they are safe. So, is it unsafe or is it safe?

I think he meant "hardly"
Frontier Pilot
 
patches
Posts: 247
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2000 5:56 am

RE: The Coming U.S Airline Crashes. YT Video

Thu Jul 05, 2007 8:11 am

Hey! whats wrong with working at a hardware store! I resent that statment you old burnt out dinosaur!

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