Pihero
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Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 6:31 am

This is worth checking :
S.Hamilton comment

I am not really interested in the cricket game-type of scoring A & B sales but some comments, and the way the numbers break down are worth a look.
Particularly the market share between the 777 family and the 350-900/1000 : 58/42 %.
The author notes :..."The A350-800 dramatically trails the 787 orders year-to-date but the
larger A350 versions comfortably outsold the 777 YTD. This is an early warning sign for
Boeing and a potential validation of the Airbus strategy to more directly go after the older
airplane than to compete directly will the entire 787 product line. Only time will tell if
this holds up...."

Your thoughts ?
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ikramerica
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 6:37 am

Quoting Pihero (Thread starter):
I am not really interested in the cricket game-type of scoring A & B sales

Then why on earth did you post another thread about this when we already know this is the case?

As for the 777, yeah, duh. The A350 is new. But now that it is already sold out through 2016 or so, airlines will still need planes from 2011-2015, so just like the A330, the 777 will sell for a while longer. But I think Boeing knows it's not a never ending profit stream.
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clickhappy
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 6:38 am

My thoughts? Sure, Boeing will be building and delivering said 777s well before the A359 ever flys. And has the A351.0 even been announced?
 
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scbriml
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 6:49 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 2):
And has the A351.0 even been announced?

Enough for QR to buy 20 of them.
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clickhappy
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 6:54 am

Right on, must have missed that. Whats the EIS? 2015?
 
Pihero
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 7:00 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
why on earth did you post another thread about this when we already know this is the case?

Because I'm interested only in perspectives. The idea that , so far this year the 350-900 and 350-1000 have outsold the 777 looks like an "early warning" sign for Boeing is fascinating.
Now, are we going to see soon Boeing's answer to that threat which seems to manifest itself a lot earlier than most A.netters have forecasted in the form of an advanced 777, or could Boeing take advantage of their cash flow to launch a counter-strike ?

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 2):
My thoughts? Sure, Boeing will be building and delivering said 777s well before the A359 ever flys

And then ?
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EI321
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 7:02 am

Im not into comparing 777 sales with A350 sales, they may be direct competitors, and one better than the other, but the delivery times of the sales are very different. Same goes with 787 and A330. All I can say is that Airbus seems to have cought up. Thats it.

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 4):
Whats the EIS? 2015?

Yep, mid '15 for the -1000 varient.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 7:07 am

Quoting Pihero (Thread starter):
Your thoughts?

The A350XWB has outsold the 777 YTD, but the 777 has sold 127 frames since July 2006 to 177 for the A350XWB (based on Wiki since Airbus' spreadsheet shows the original A350 sales, as well), so the 777 is not trailing so far behind as one might imagine.
 
khobar
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 7:10 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 3):
Enough for QR to buy 20 of them.

QR also said they didn't know much about what they were buying and bought the planes in an effort to get more info from Airbus.

"For a launch customer we have been provided with remarkably limited information on the evolution of the A350 XWB design.

"We hope that now the purchase agreement is signed, we will be able to have a more detailed understanding of what specification choices are being considered by Airbus as the design crystalises."

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-of-airbus-a350-xwb-technical.html

A very interesting way of doing business.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 7:19 am

Quoting Khobar (Reply 8):
QR also said they didn't know much about what they were buying and bought the planes in an effort to get more info from Airbus.

I would hope what QR's principals were stating with that comment was "Now that we're the lead customer, we expect Airbus to give our needs and desires more credence as Airbus designs the plane".

Neither I (or QR) are suggesting Airbus custom-design the plane for them, but with the 787 and 777 already completely defined and in production, QR pretty much has to take what is being offered. With the A350, they have the advantage of helping to define what the A350 will offer.
 
khobar
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 10:15 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
I would hope what QR's principals were stating with that comment was "Now that we're the lead customer, we expect Airbus to give our needs and desires more credence as Airbus designs the plane".

That certainly would make sense, but I have to wonder how much "custom-design" QR is expecting given:

"With this information unavailable, Qatar Airways has had to define in detail what its expects from the A350 XWB by way of specification and performance and then make this a contractual obligation, says Al Baker."

"This part of the airline's purchase agreement is larger than the document that currently serves as Airbus's interim specification," he says, adding that the airline was heavily involved in the previous definitions of the A350, but unlike its continued participation with Boeing in the detailed definition of the 787 and 747-8, it "has not been encouraged by Airbus to participate in the development of the A350 XWB specification - we aim to change this".

It sounds very one sided - QR is defining the aircraft instead of Airbus in the purchase agreement. Airbus, of course, can choose to ignore QR.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 10:49 am

Quoting Khobar (Reply 11):
It sounds very one sided - QR is defining the aircraft instead of Airbus in the purchase agreement. Airbus, of course, can choose to ignore QR.

If QR is not asking for items other airline customers would find objectionable, it probably won't hurt. Many of the things the "Working Together" team on the 777 defined were gladly accepted by later purchasers who had little to no input - airy cabin, easy-access deep overhead bins, flexible flooring (in terms of attaching seats and systems), etc.
 
khobar
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 11:35 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
If QR is not asking for items other airline customers would find objectionable, it probably won't hurt. Many of the things the "Working Together" team on the 777 defined were gladly accepted by later purchasers who had little to no input - airy cabin, easy-access deep overhead bins, flexible flooring (in terms of attaching seats and systems), etc.

Aye, true, but QR's statement talks about specifications and performance, and that can get a little weird where other customers are concerned. There are a lot of variables involved that may or may not come up to other customers' liking.
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:10 pm

Quoting Pihero (Thread starter):
market share between the 777 family and the 350-900/1000 : 58/42 %

If you take the 23 777F sales for this year out of the equation, the difference is even greater. Those sales would have closed regardless of the A350, since the A350F is not yet launched.
 
redflyer
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:12 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 5):
The idea that , so far this year the 350-900 and 350-1000 have outsold the 777 looks like an "early warning" sign for Boeing is fascinating.

One year of sales (or should I say, one airshow worth of sales?) is not indicative of success for the A3510 nor indicative of the demise of the 777. After all, the A380 outsold the 747 the first two years it was offered. Look at where the numbers stand now.
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boeing767-300
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 8:19 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 6):
All I can say is that Airbus seems to have cought up. Thats it.

Exactly but then the 777-200ER arrived in 1995 when the long range A340 had been developed and the A330 was short on range.

The A350 will finally address the shortfalls of the A330 (range) and put to rest the notion that you had to have 4 engines for long haul. The A350 is no doubt the right aircraft for Airbus it just comes eighteen years after the 777 and five years after 787.

This really vindicates Boeing in 1990 going with the 777 that really pushed the ETOPs and power outputs of the engine suppliers and made the LARGE twin the economical way to do long haul!!!!!!

What I find interesting is that Boeing and Airbus seemed to have swapped places. The A330 has many more customers than 777 and now the 787 seems to be picking up the small customers as well as the big ones. Seeing as the 787 is slightly smaller I expect this trend to continue.

As to the topic of this thread I seriously doubt 20 A350-1000 is any indication given the sheer number of 77W (250+) and the way 77W killed A346 dead. As mentioned the 77W will continue to sell well just like the A330 is now
 
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keesje
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 9:02 pm

I think Airbus should consider updating the A330 line.

The A350-800 XWB 9 abreast will have significantly larger seat capasity & vastly more payload range capability. So Airbus would really threaten the A350XWB.

Hanging the newest GENX / Trent engines under the 330-200 / -300, putting in a new cabin and improve operation reliability further based on lessons learned with the large A330 fleet base, might convince a lot of airlines that are willing to accept a few percent less efficiecy compared to the newer technology A350/787.

Advantages :
- compatability with existing A330 fleets,
- maintenance based on know technology (what's the repair time if the catering truck drives into a carbon aircraft on an outstation?)
- aircraft that don't have the overkill in payload/range for medium range / transatlantic / leisure & regional operations.
- unit costs could be low, little investments, steaming supply / production line is there.
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Pihero
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 9:06 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
e A350XWB has outsold the 777 YTD, but the 777 has sold 127 frames since July 2006 to 177 for the A350XWB (based on Wiki since Airbus' spreadsheet shows the original A350 sales, as well), so the 777 is not trailing so far behind as one might imagine.



Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 15):
I seriously doubt 20 A350-1000 is any indication given the sheer number of 77W (250+) and the way 77W killed A346 dead.

You are both right, but the article is more concerned about a trend that seems to be accelerating. Will the 350,- 900 and -1000, squeeze the 777 out of the "game" by 2016 and IF the trend continues, how will Boeing act ? They have the money, they have the know-how and the time frame is still on their side - as the article confirms -, so I think we're just about to hear the launch of a triple7 successor.

Regards
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Stitch
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 9:37 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 17):
Will the 350,- 900 and -1000, squeeze the 777 out of the "game" by 2016...

I believe it will.

Quote:
...and IF the trend continues, how will Boeing act?

I believe Boeing will respond with the 787-10, the 787-11, the 787-8LR, and HGW versions of the 787-9 and 787-10.
 
ken4556
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 9:59 pm

What everyone is forgetting is how big the 777 order backlog is and the most orders for 777 are add-ons orders and not new customers. AA or Singapore is probably not going to order 50 more 777, but will excercise options for 5 or 10 here and there as they need them.

The A350 still has not one Blue Chip Airline order versus the 787.
 
airbuske
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 10:29 pm

Quoting Ken4556 (Reply 19):
The A350 still has not one Blue Chip Airline order versus the 787.

You are incorrect there - At Le Bourget, SQ placed a firm order for 20 A359's with a further 20 options.

It will be interesting to see what Boeing's next action will be .Will they develop advanced variants of the 777's and HGW variants of the 787 to compete with the A350XWB while simultaneously designing the A320/737 replacement for EIS around 2013? Or will they design an entirely new family itself to compete with the A350XWB also with EIS around 2013?
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 10:32 pm

Quoting Ken4556 (Reply 19):
The A350 still has not one Blue Chip Airline order versus the 787.

Singapore Airlines isn't blue chip?

Cheers!  wave 
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Stitch
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 10:32 pm

Quoting Airbuske (Reply 20):
Will they develop advanced variants of the 777's and HGW variants of the 787 to compete with the A350XWB while simultaneously designing the A320/737 replacement for EIS around 2013? Or will they design an entirely new family itself to compete with the A350XWB also with EIS around 2013?

I favor the former. That and Y1 will take plenty of money and manpower in and of itself. I'm not sure Boeing can launch three entirely new families within a decade, frankly... But that's not a sign of weakness in my view - just prudent pragmatism.  thumbsup 
 
ken4556
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Wed Jul 11, 2007 11:54 pm

I thought the Singapore A350's were not yet a firmorder. If so, I stand corrected.
 
helvknight
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Thu Jul 12, 2007 12:08 am

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 21):
Singapore Airlines isn't blue chip?

Not according to Richard Aboulafia.
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Motorhussy
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Thu Jul 12, 2007 1:06 am

Quoting Ken4556 (Reply 19):
The A350 still has not one Blue Chip Airline order versus the 787.

What do you consider a Blue Chip airline?

I consider an airline Blue Chip if it is well-established, having stable earnings and no extensive liabilities. Blue Chip airlines pay regular dividends, even when the industry's faring worse than usual (as per post 9/11, SARS et al). Also, they often have large Market Capitalisation.

I believe that both Finnair and Singapore Airlines qualify under these criteria.

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Stitch
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Thu Jul 12, 2007 1:17 am

I don't care if an airline is "Blue Chip" or not, provided their check clears on delivery. And I imagine Boeing and Airbus don't, either. Big grin
 
Observer
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Thu Jul 12, 2007 2:44 am

Quoting Helvknight (Reply 24):
Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 21):
Singapore Airlines isn't blue chip?

Not according to Richard Aboulafia.

Aboulafia's quotes about no blue-chip for the A350 are pre-Paris Air Show. Post-Paris, he now has a different view on the quality of the orders for the A350.
 
BestWestern
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RE: Leeham : Airbus Lead First Semester Sales

Thu Jul 12, 2007 3:03 am

Quoting Observer (Reply 27):
Aboulafia's quotes about no blue-chip for the A350 are pre-Paris Air Show. Post-Paris, he now has a different view on the quality of the orders for the A350.

Who cares what Aboulafia thinks.
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