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FWAERJ
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Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Mon Jul 16, 2007 10:12 am

Last year, AirTran did a poll of which city should be their next one. Four of the top 5 cities in terms of votes on the list got FL service: PHX, STL, CHS, and PWM.

The fifth-place winner, FWA, is still missing from the AirTran route map. (Dave Young, FWA's VP of new air service development, confirmed the stats with me a while back.)

As we all know, AirTran will probably announce one more new city by the end of the year. Could that city still be FWA? Despite Allegiant's highly successful entry into the market, the reasons for FL at FWA are still there: First, there is still a need for daily LCC service to business destinations. Secondly, DL Connection (ASA) charges astronomical fares for travel to the Southeastern US and Florida cities. Finally, people want increased competition overall, and FL to ATL (and possibly MCO) would work great.

However, there may also be some factors that could be giving FL some second thoughts about serving FWA. The most prominent one by far is probably the cross-cannibalization of their IND traffic. As we all know, IND has been a very successful city for FL. And believe it or not, a lot of the leakage from FWA goes to IND and flies FL. So, in turn, FL could be worried about hurting their IND loads with flights from FWA. Another possibility is FL thinking if FWA will be another TOL for them. I don't think so: There was (and still is) immense loyalty to Delta at TOL. On the other hand, DL's passenger "fan base" at FWA has been rapidly crumbling ever since DL cut their FWA-CVG flights down from 6-7x daily down to 5x and later 4x daily and their ATL flights from 4-5x daily to 3x daily. With cutbacks like this, people are ready for an alternative to the widget, hence the reason why AA Eagle's ORD and DFW flights have gained so much marketshare here. (BTW, MQ is now the new #1 carrier at FWA.)

Still, FWA is offering their normal TRIP incentives and marketing support program, and is also leaving open a ticket counter next to the G4 counter if FL or anyone else (B6, F9, etc.) decides to come. IMO, If AirTran does come, I could see 2-3x daily to ATL and possibly 1x daily to MCO, both on 717s. (And maybe if the YX takeover goes through, MKE could be added as well.)

Anyone else see FWA as a possibility for AirTran?

[Edited 2007-07-16 03:16:10]
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National757
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:03 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
Anyone else see FWA as a possibility for AirTran?

FWA seems to be well served with UA, CO, AA, and DL already. If anything the cutbacks at DL show the weakness of the Fort Wayne market.

G4 has been successful at stimulating the market with a limited number of flights to Vegas and Florida. I am not sure there is much of a market left to be had in FWA. Guess we will have to wait and see.

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deltadawg
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:52 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
On the other hand, DL's passenger "fan base" at FWA has been rapidly crumbling ever since DL cut their FWA-CVG flights down from 6-7x daily down to 5x and later 4x daily and their ATL flights from 4-5x daily to 3x daily.

And expect DL to ramp back up to 6 or 7 dailies to CVG and 4-5 ATL's if FL comes into FWA. Use of the DL Connection carriers is more flexible than mainline on such routes. Also, I am sure Comair has plenty of pilots and a/c around to make some more FWA-CVG happen.

I would put my money on OKC, SLC or SAT for future expansion cities. All this is subject to the YX merger/no merger!
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nosedive
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 4:43 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
Secondly, DL Connection (ASA) charges astronomical fares for travel to the Southeastern US and Florida cities.

Why does that mean FL should fly there? Consumer standpoints and business standpoints are not always the same. Case in point: I want a DEN-CDG flight.

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
First, there is still a need for daily LCC service to business destinations.

Non-unique to FWA. Why should FWA be 1st?
 
727LOVER
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 7:05 am

Quoting Nosedive (Reply 3):
Non-unique to FWA. Why should FWA be 1st?

Ummmm.......did you miss this?

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
Last year, AirTran did a poll of which city should be their next one. Four of the top 5 cities in terms of votes on the list got FL service: PHX, STL, CHS, and PWM.

The fifth-place winner, FWA, is still missing from the AirTran route map.
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
FWAERJ
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 7:22 am

Quoting DeltaDAWG (Reply 2):
Also, I am sure Comair has plenty of pilots and a/c around to make some more FWA-CVG happen.

Comair no longer operates FWA-CVG for DL... Chautauqua runs the route, using ERJ-135s instead of the CRJ-200s that OH used. So not only has the number of frequencies decreased from 7x to 4x daily, but the number of seats available on a daily basis is correspondingly down from 350 to 148. That's a 55%+ decrease in the number of seats. Still, I'm quite sure that RP and/or OH could throw in more seats if needed.

Quoting Nosedive (Reply 3):
Why should FWA be 1st?

They aren't first: Other airports the size of FWA with similar market demographics like BMI, FNT, CHS, PWM, ICT, and MLI already have FL service.

Quoting National757 (Reply 1):
I am not sure there is much of a market left to be had in FWA.

That's becuase a lot of people drive down to IND... the leakage here to IND alone was 65% shortly after the DL and NW cutbacks, but it's now at about 55-60% due to G4's market entry and MQ's added flights to ORD and DFW. To put it into perspective, the leakage could fill up 30 CRJ-200s or ERJ-145s, or 14 B717s, or 3 A380s on a daily basis. And people here actually would prefer to use FWA over IND... the fares are the only thing preventing pax from choosing FWA more often.

[Edited 2007-07-17 00:26:15]

[Edited 2007-07-17 00:31:51]
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nosedive
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 7:25 am

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 4):

Ummmm.......did you miss this?

Nope, but I'd like to know how FWA would stack up in a second vote. Some other holes I see in FL's map: OKC, LIT, AUS, PDX, BOI, SDF, BNA (though there are some other reasons with that one, i.e. debt to the city), CLE, RNO, SUX etc. I also would like to know how the survey question was structured, plus some background info on the question itself. Maybe the question omitted many of these other cities. Maybe the question only had the cities that had knocked on FL's door. Does anyone have insight into this question?
 
ouboy79
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 7:49 am

I would probably expect OKC to not be far from seeing a real AirTran flight - though the donated DC-9 in FL colors sitting on the NW side of the airport definitely makes you wish for it.  Smile

The OKC market is definitely in need of additional lift out East. Five trip to ATL on DL Conn and a M88, and a few CRJs to MEM are about all we have going to the SE. NE bound is even worse, though improving with both Southwest (BWI) and United (IAD) starting new service in that direction. The demand is there, especially with the rapidly growing community.
 
CitrusCritter
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:44 am

Quoting Nosedive (Reply 6):
Some other holes I see in FL's map: OKC, LIT, AUS, PDX, BOI, SDF, BNA (though there are some other reasons with that one, i.e. debt to the city), CLE, RNO, SUX etc.

Don't know about a SUX or BOI, but I think the others are certainly future possibilites (except maybe LIT -- what is DL running there now?) I have heard that XNA is practically begging them to come out there. It seems that station expansion is pretty much on hold -- I'd imagine until they see what happens with YX. What's the average cost of opening a new station?

Quoting Nosedive (Reply 6):
Maybe the question only had the cities that had knocked on FL's door. Does anyone have insight into this question?

It was a pretty large survey...I answered it and asked for a few destinations. I voted for BHM, XNA, and GSP. I seem to recall there were about thirty or so choices, mostly middle sized markets like CHS. I can't say that I recall the big western markets (e.g. PDX, SLC) being on there...I do recall ROA made a significant attempt to round up votes.

[Edited 2007-07-17 03:46:13]
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skyrat
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:23 am

I think there is no way FL will come to FWA. Just not going to happen. I believe FWA will get another airline, just don't think it will be FL.
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:31 am

Quoting CitrusCritter (Reply 8):
I do recall ROA made a significant attempt to round up votes

As did CRW. Doesnt look like Airtran is interested in cities of similar size at the moment.

FWA may have leakage to IND, but doesnt Airtran fly there too? I dont think they'd attempt to take PAX from themselves.
 
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:38 am

Quoting KcrwFlyer (Reply 10):
Doesnt look like Airtran is interested in cities of similar size at the moment.

I don't think they are, mainly for lack of an appropriate aircraft. There's a limited number of 717s, and they might be too big for some of these cities, especially at the frequencies FL likes. They really need something along the lines of the E-170.
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SuseJ772
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:57 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
The fifth-place winner, FWA, is still missing from the AirTran route map. (Dave Young, FWA's VP of new air service development, confirmed the stats with me a while back.)

Yep, I remember that and I voted for it.

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
Secondly, DL Connection (ASA) charges astronomical fares for travel to the Southeastern US and Florida cities.

Tell me about it. When I was in school in Los Angeles, I could fly LAX-FWA way cheaper than I can now fly ATL-FWA (I live in Atlanta now, but my I grew up in Fort Wayne and make a trip back at least twice a year). At least it isn't that bad of a drive.

Quoting National757 (Reply 1):
FWA seems to be well served with UA, CO, AA, and DL already. If anything the cutbacks at DL show the weakness of the Fort Wayne market.

FWA is served well, I'll give you that. But only from mainlines. They don't have a single LCC (Allegiant does not count) and I think they are a market that could justify one. Especially since Indiana has a lower than average annual income and my perception is that they are more cost conscious then other places I've lived (i.e. LA & ATL).

Quoting Nosedive (Reply 6):
Nope, but I'd like to know how FWA would stack up in a second vote. Some other holes I see in FL's map: OKC, LIT, AUS, PDX, BOI, SDF, BNA (though there are some other reasons with that one, i.e. debt to the city), CLE, RNO, SUX etc.

Yeah, but most if not all of those have at least one LCC. So Airtran would be competing against the majors and LCCs in those market. FWA has nothing in there. I still think the fact FWA placed 5th in the survey has a lot to say.


One thing that hasn't been brought up is that FL fits nicely into Fort Wayne's vacation demographic. I feel that more people in Fort Wayne go to places like Hilton Head Island, Siesta Key, Sannibel, etc...than most of the people I know in Atlanta. I lived in similar demographics of each city (Southwest Allen County & Alpharetta, GA are stinkingly familiar...only Alpharetta has obviously a higher income, but money goes further in Southwest Allen). The point is, I knew a lot of people who vacationed to Florida and South Carolina and I think that would fit FL nicely.
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nosedive
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 4:32 pm

Quoting SuseJ772 (Reply 12):
Yeah, but most if not all of those have at least one LCC. So Airtran would be competing against the majors and LCCs in those market. FWA has nothing in there. I still think the fact FWA placed 5th in the survey has a lot to say.

So... by that logic FL shouldn't be in a great deal of cities they are in...FWA being 5th may say a lot, but it remains to be seen if FL will ever reply.

Quoting SuseJ772 (Reply 12):
The point is, I knew a lot of people who vacationed to Florida and South Carolina and I think that would fit FL nicely.

Why is that unique to FWA?

Quoting CitrusCritter (Reply 8):
I seem to recall there were about thirty or so choices, mostly middle sized markets like CHS.

Ah, cool.
 
National757
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:50 pm

Quoting SuseJ772 (Reply 12):
(Allegiant does not count)

Why not? They are just as low cost as every other LCC. With other carriers cutting back in Fort Wayne, Allegiant is adding flights which is good for the airport and the Fort Wayne community.

Quoting SuseJ772 (Reply 12):
One thing that hasn't been brought up is that FL fits nicely into Fort Wayne's vacation demographic.

I think G4 pretty much has that demographic covered, at least to Florida. How many more leisure travelers can there possibly be in Fort Wayne that G4 hasn't already grabbed?

Quoting SuseJ772 (Reply 12):
I still think the fact FWA placed 5th in the survey has a lot to say.

I wouldn't put much stock into fifth place. Online surveys can be skewed depending on the number votes if there is no limit to how many times someone can vote in one day. Having said that, you can bet FL and others are watching and waiting to see how successful of a market FWA ultimately becomes for G4.
 
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 8:19 pm

Quoting KcrwFlyer (Reply 10):
FWA may have leakage to IND, but doesnt Airtran fly there too? I dont think they'd attempt to take PAX from themselves.

You mean like opening DTW after FNT? I don't think you'll see FWA service despite coming in number 5, because there are plenty of bigger markets to enter first.

Quoting SuseJ772 (Reply 12):
One thing that hasn't been brought up is that FL fits nicely into Fort Wayne's vacation demographic.

FL isn't going to come into any new city to simply carry VFR traffic to Florida. Yields are way to low. FWA needs to show thats there's a good amount of high yield traffic in the market in order to attract FL.
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CitrusCritter
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:21 pm

Quoting National757 (Reply 14):
Quoting SuseJ772 (Reply 12):
(Allegiant does not count)

Why not? They are just as low cost as every other LCC. With other carriers cutting back in Fort Wayne, Allegiant is adding flights which is good for the airport and the Fort Wayne community.

I think his point is that G4, while an LCC, does not offer anything but vacation service because of the lack of frequency and limited destinations. Obviously the other LCCs, especially FL, WN, or B6, would offer more meaningful daily service and connections. G4 does not even attempt to snatch any non-vacation travel, so they compete against the legacies only in the most minimal way.
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kcrwflyer
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Wed Jul 18, 2007 3:34 am

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 15):
You mean like opening DTW after FNT? I don't think you'll see FWA service despite coming in number 5, because there are plenty of bigger markets to enter first.

Im going to gues that DTW+FNT > FWA+IND.
 
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Wed Jul 18, 2007 3:53 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 5):
And people here actually would prefer to use FWA over IND... the fares are the only thing preventing pax from choosing FWA more often.

sounds like the SRQ/TPA situation was a while back, but now with more carriers into SRQ and lower operating costs from the Airport side, all of a sudden there is more service at competitive prices like back in the old days.

FL, B6 now fly to SRQ.
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skyrat
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Wed Jul 18, 2007 5:54 am

I think FWA would get more service if the airport authority would offer revenue guarantees. I would like to see them offer some money to MQ for LGA service or UAX for DEN or IAD service. Another problem I can see is that they are limited on Jetways.
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syncmaster
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Wed Jul 18, 2007 7:07 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 5):
They aren't first: Other airports the size of FWA with similar market demographics like BMI, FNT, CHS, PWM, ICT, and MLI already have FL service.

Please don't tell me you are comparing Fort Rain to cities like Flint and Wichita.

Delta cut service at not only FWA, but many many other cities around the country, not because people aren't loyal to them in these markets, but because these markets cannot sustain a profitable operation for them, Delta is not the only airline to have done this.

Fort Wayne simply does not have the market that an airline like AirTran is looking for.

There are plenty of other cities that AirTran would be better off going to first.
 
FWAERJ
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Wed Jul 18, 2007 11:00 pm

Quoting Skyrat (Reply 19):
I would like to see them offer some money to MQ for LGA service or UAX for DEN or IAD service.

Nonstop NYC service is already very high on FWA's priority list, as is DEN service. But an even more important thing on their list right now is restoring US Airways service that was lost in the PIT cutbacks, although US would serve PHL this time. Partially, they want FWA-PHL because Lincoln Financial has their HQ in Philly and a big presence in Fort Wayne, but they mainly want it for more convenient East Coast and trans-Atlantic connections.
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flyinryan99
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:36 am

Quoting Skyrat (Reply 19):
I would like to see them offer some money to MQ for LGA service or UAX for DEN or IAD service.

There is money available through TRIP which comes from city/county taxes. I think 2x DEN and 2x IAD would be very attainable for FWA. MQ to LGA might be a little more difficult as they appear to be focused on growing the ORD/DFW route. Although, I would not be surprised to see them do 1x daily in order to take the guaranteed revenue.

Quoting Syncmaster (Reply 20):
Delta cut service at not only FWA, but many many other cities around the country, not because people aren't loyal to them in these markets, but because these markets cannot sustain a profitable operation for them,

I tend to disagree with this statement. Most cities in the midwest really took a beating when Delta pulled down CVG. So, does that mean these markets were the problem or was it the mainline market or the actual hub itself? I tend to believe it was the mainline market was the money loser (lack of O/D out of CVG), not the feeder markets. I say that because why did some stations have as many as 12x daily if they were losing a ton of money unless they were trying to cover for O/D losses? Delta reallocated the jets to JFK and did not include FWA in this. Do I think they could support 3x daily to JFK? Yes I do. That would bring FWA pretty close to what they had pre-CVG pull down. Will FWA see JFK service any time soon? I don't think so. I say that because Delta is competing with jetBlue with at least half as many seats per flight. So that means they need to trump jetBlue with frequency. With the constraints of JFK right now, there really isn't much more room. Would I like to see Delta fly SBN/FWA/TOL/FNT-JFK 2x to 3x daily? Yes I would, but they would then lose a lot more money on the routes where they compete with jetBlue. In order for FWA to see NYC service, they are going to hand over a lot of money to get that slot/airplane from another route. At least that is what I think.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 21):
But an even more important thing on their list right now is restoring US Airways service that was lost in the PIT cutbacks, although US would serve PHL this time.

I was told USAirways isn't looking to come back into the midwest markets they left until sometime around 2009. They are still having integration problems with the merger, not to mention their express airlines are really hurting for employees right now. I would love to see them back into the markets they used to be in, but the reality of it right now is fairly low, but there is hope for down the road.

Now...getting back to the topic at hand. Possibility of AirTran at FWA....I would give it a 40% chance for within a year. I say this because they are paying attention to the response from the market of Allegiant. They will watch to see if it is sustainable over the long haul. I think AirTran needs to find some unique markets to start flying into where they will have the pricing power. FWA is one of those markets. Yes lower fares are available in DTW, IND, and DAY but all of those are quite a distance from FWA. Fares are high and I think if AirTran were to come in they could easily flights to a few different markets - 2x ATL, 2x BWI, and 1x MCO. I think they could easily run those flights without cannibalizing IND and to an extent DAY. AirTran is going to have to put 717s somewhere because I think they'll want to grow some markets with the 737s - why not FWA?
 
as739x
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Thu Jul 19, 2007 3:07 am

Quoting Nosedive (Reply 6):

Why would the serve CLE and cannibalize their CAK market?

ASSFO
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skyrat
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Thu Jul 19, 2007 8:11 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 21):
But an even more important thing on their list right now is restoring US Airways service that was lost in the PIT cutbacks, although US would serve PHL this time.

It would be cool to see AWAC back in FWA doing a flight to PHL. However, I don't see it happening anytime soon.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 21):
as is DEN service

I have heard that they put IAD ahead of DEN on that list. I am not a big fan of the airport authority, as I think they drag their feet a lot and seem to be far behind other smaller airports in the region. Thats just my  twocents .
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FWAERJ
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Thu Jul 19, 2007 8:28 am

Quoting Skyrat (Reply 24):
I am not a big fan of the airport authority, as I think they drag their feet a lot and seem to be far behind other smaller airports in the region.

At least they're much better than TOL... the Toledo Port Authority hasn't brought in much new pax service. MQ's DFW service (lost due to the AA/Wright Amendment/Stop-and-Think/whatever astroturfing fiasco) hasn't returned. G4 had to cancel LAS service. And the NYC service that's been promised by now still hasn't materialized. Seems to me that TOL wants to focus on air cargo rather than passengers.

Still, I do have to admit that TOL has a much better logo than FWA. The current "temporary" all-caps logo for FWA looks like it was made in-house in Microsoft Paint... fortunately, a new and (hopefully) better one is being developed as I speak. If you really want to see the current logo, they have it at www.flyfwa.com (it's the logo you see right next to the words "The Way to Save").
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:47 pm

Quoting National757 (Reply 14):
Why not? They are just as low cost as every other LCC. With other carriers cutting back in Fort Wayne, Allegiant is adding flights which is good for the airport and the Fort Wayne community.

Allegiant is much more like a charter carrier (think Hooters Air) than a full fledged LCC. Full fledged LCC's go to multiple destinations, allow connections, go to business centers (think B6, FL, and even WN to some extent although their service to some "business centers" is rather screwy like NYC), have multiple daily flights, etc. G4 goes to vacation centers only, and does it on a 1x or less per day frequency on almost all routes. They're a niche carrier, they serve a niche (taking people from secondary/tertiary cities on packages to Orlando or Vegas) and they serve it quite well. They're not a "network" carrier like a B6 though.

Quoting Skyrat (Reply 24):

It would be cool to see AWAC back in FWA doing a flight to PHL. However, I don't see it happening anytime soon.



Quoting Flyinryan99 (Reply 22):

I was told USAirways isn't looking to come back into the midwest markets they left until sometime around 2009. They are still having integration problems with the merger, not to mention their express airlines are really hurting for employees right now. I would love to see them back into the markets they used to be in, but the reality of it right now is fairly low, but there is hope for down the road.

PHL is too swamped to start adding RJ's to all those 2nd/3rd tier Midwest markets like SBN, FWA, GRR, etc. No offense to those places, it's just that US is too stretched at PHL. Unless PHL can add some massive capacity I can't see US ever adding service back to those routes via PHL. CLT would probably make more sense. As would PIT if they were smart (a la CO @ CLE) but US gave up on PIT long ago. There is no way US can afford to shove a bunch more RJ's into PHL in the name of rebuilding abandoned stations from the ground up. That said I very often flew the SBN-PIT flights and they were always stuffed... sure "Full flights don't necessarily = profit" but with the fares US was charging there's no way they couldn't make a profit on a full flight.
 
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:22 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 25):
At least they're much better than TOL... the Toledo Port Authority hasn't brought in much new pax service. MQ's DFW service (lost due to the AA/Wright Amendment/Stop-and-Think/whatever astroturfing fiasco) hasn't returned. G4 had to cancel LAS service. And the NYC service that's been promised by now still hasn't materialized. Seems to me that TOL wants to focus on air cargo rather than passengers.

Since the original response to this was ganked since it was a little harsh, let me throw my two cents in here. The TOL and FWA markets cannot be compared. TOL has around 85% leakage to DTW, with FWA around...what 60% according to your figures...to IND. The other impact is that pricing in DTW also has a massive impact on pricing power in TOL. North and East Toledo it is almost faster to drive to DTW than TOL. Airlines take that into account when deploying service. TOL-LAS is a route that can work if you have the pricing power. Allegiant was very tight on margins with the expense of fuel on the MD-80s that they used...so they had to suspend it. TMA if you remember also operated the TOL-LAS route 2-3 times a week...with the two nonstops being on 757s and the other an MD-80 (stopped in RFD). Their loads were in the 80% bracket. TMA also did a mix of 757s and MD80s on the TOL-SFD route that they flew nearly daily and had strong loads. This was the main reasoning behind G4 coming in right away when TMA went bust. What's my point on this?

1) The market is there in TOL, so we can't dispute that.
2) This shows the nature of G4's conservative strategy. They could go daily in TOL and probably maintain loads, but right now they feel there is a happy balance without pissing off the bigger boys in DTW. They have also shown how fast they'll leave a market if this balance is disrupted.

TOL-DFW...great route, bad aircraft and timing choice. The flight Eagle ran was timed horribly unless you were like me flying from OKC in the morning to TOL...then the connection was a breeze. The return though meant that I had to leave mid-day..which wasn't all that great. The other negative was the ERJ was severely weight restricted on the route and this killed margins. I doubt we'll see it return unless an influx of 70 seaters arrive...which isn't going to happen.

Does TOL focus too much on cargo? Not really...and this coming because I have a fairly good idea of what is going on behind the scenes. The recent growth with the cargo hub there has a lot to do with BAX's new owner wanting to finally utilize the size of the facility they have there. So we'll see more international flights going in there finally...which we've already seen with the Qantas flight to SYD increased to 2 weekly and the new Emerites flight. If Iraq would ever calm down, TOL would be one of the first cities to have air service there as it was one of the first 3-5 cities selected when the route authority awards were given out.
 
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RE: Possibility Of AirTran At FWA?

Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:43 pm

Quoting Flyinryan99 (Reply 22):
Most cities in the midwest really took a beating when Delta pulled down CVG. So, does that mean these markets were the problem or was it the mainline market or the actual hub itself? I tend to believe it was the mainline market was the money loser (lack of O/D out of CVG), not the feeder markets. I say that because why did some stations have as many as 12x daily if they were losing a ton of money unless they were trying to cover for O/D losses?

I totally agree with you on that. A lot of DL routes out of CVG before the hub "right-sizing" either used equipment that was way too big for O&D or connecting traffic or had too many frequencies. Why on earth could a route like, say, CVG-AZO need 7x daily service when the market could only support 3x daily service? Likewise, why would you fly, say, CVG-MCO four times daily on 763s and not MD-88s? Because Delta's pre-BK thinking was more frequencies on bigger planes or tons of frequencies on RJs instead of frequencies and aircraft sizes that both the hub market and the other markets could support. Do I think that FWA could use an extra frequency to both CVG and ATL? Yes. But the fact of the matter is that DL is still right-sizing CVG, even after Ch 11, so I don't see that extra CVG happening happening anytime soon. But I do see the extra ATL coming back in the not-so-distant future, as DL is growing that hub big-time, especially internationally.

Now, back to FL at FWA... I could see 2-3x daily to ATL, 1x daily to BWI, and 1x daily to MCO, all on B717s. And I can see it happening by the end of the year. Now all the airport authority has to do is convince them that FWA won't cannibalize IND loads...  Big grin
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