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keesje
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Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Mon Jul 16, 2007 10:19 pm

Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica SA may make bigger jets to challenge Airbus SAS and Boeing Co. in the next decade if new engine technology is developed, Chief Executive Officer Frederico Curado said.

''If there is a huge change in the structure of the dynamics of this market, we will certainly look into that,'' Curado said in an interview in Paris.

Airbus and Boeing, the world's biggest commercial aircraft- makers, are expected to start making replacement models for their best-selling A320 and 737 planes in the next decade. Embraer, based in Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil, could challenge rivals with a large single-aisle jet, Curado said.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=amgbIOtTV840&refer=latin_america

IMO this can also be a moce to ensure participation in one of the future programs..


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DAYflyer
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Mon Jul 16, 2007 10:56 pm

Not an unexpected development.

However, unless they can find a way to use CFRP in this sized market segment, they wont go anywhere fast IMO. It may behoove them to link up with B or A on such a project rather than to go it alone.
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roseflyer
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:29 pm

Well they say that they are going to wait for either a dramatic change in the market or new technology to become available. It looks like in 10 years they might do it. The biggest fear of Airbus and Boeing is probably that Embraer will take on the large single aisle market.

One good thing is that there have been three competitors in the past and the market mostly sustained it. With the current backlog on 737s and A320s filling up delivery positions to around 2010, another manufacturer might help the industry a lot.
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:30 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 1):
However, unless they can find a way to use CFRP in this sized market segment, they wont go anywhere fast IMO. It may behoove them to link up with B or A on such a project rather than to go it alone.

 checkmark 
This is further incentive for Boeing to do Y1 sooner rather than later. I do not think Embraer is ready to do CFRP barrels, and if Boeing wants to keep the market a duopoly then they need to raise the bar. If they stay aluminum Embraer, Bombardier, or the Chinese can jump in and be competitive. It will be much harder for a newcomer to go CFRP, especially barrels.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
dougbr2006
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:46 pm

Embraer have been looking at this for some time now, especially with the BBD C series sitting in the wings.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 3):
This is further incentive for Boeing to do Y1 sooner rather than later. .

Why !

Embraer may just be making noise to help seal a deal with Airbus as rumoured here last week !!!!!!!!!

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 3):
I do not think Embraer is ready to do CFRP barrels, and if Boeing wants to keep the market a duopoly then they need to raise the bar. If they stay aluminum Embraer, Bombardier, or the Chinese can jump in and be competitive. It will be much harder for a newcomer to go CFRP, especially barrels.

Why much harder ?

Rumour has it that EMB are already considering or experimenting in the CFRP concept, the next medium sized business jet that they're looking to launch later this year may well incorporate such technologies.

In comment !

I don't know if there is really such an advantage using CFRP barrels on smaller aircraft, is the weight difference going to be that much. In the GA market it hasn't really taken off replacing the aluminium construction, one has to ask why? Why don't we have business jets changing to CFRP. The ones that have been built haven't really impacted on the market. I doubt whether CFRP on jet below 200 seat is really going to be that advantageous IMHO.
 
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:20 am

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 4):
I doubt whether CFRP on jet below 200 seat is really going to be that advantageous IMHO.

I believe the reason Embraer is looking at CFRP is not only the weight reduction but also once the manufacturing process is in place the manufacturing and repairing of CFRP is easier than with traditional materials. In GA one of the reasons that CFRP hasn't taken off is there aren't many repair/maintenance facilities that are ready to work on the aircraft, but when this technology becomes more widespread and more places are available to work on the CFRP the associated costs will lower and it will make sense to build more aircraft out of CFRP. With almost any technology leap the you i have the research and initial costs borne by the Military Complex and or heavy industry like Boeing/Airbus, then a few small unique companies that make exotics like Scaled Composites, then as the huge costs of introducing/supporting the tech have been paid for the overall costs of using the tech come down, and it's use becomes widespread. I think we are now seeing the beginning of the CFRP era and in the next decade the vast majority of all new aircraft designs will incorporate CFRP up to and including barrels. I don't think Embraer can afford not to look into the use of CFRP on their next large aircraft.
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:22 am

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 4):
Why much harder ?

Using CFRP is comparatively new technology, and making fuselage barrels is brand new. Boeing is the only one doing barrels right now, for a reason. Embraer has probably used composites on a scale similar to what Boeing or Airbus did 15 years ago. The other aspect of CFRP is that it has much higher tooling and setup costs vs. aluminum, but lower production costs. This raises the cost of getting started considerably.

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 4):
I don't know if there is really such an advantage using CFRP barrels on smaller aircraft, is the weight difference going to be that much

The real advantages are in longevity and maintenance rather than weight plus lower production costs, but I think this will be enough to make an aluminum airliner uncompetitive.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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keesje
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:18 am

Embraer is capturing the 80-110 seat market faster thgen anybody feared.

They have managed to convice a string respected carriers all over the world.

Saying they can´t / won´t be able to use carbon materials is another strange implicit assumption

Arguing the only way to succes is a full CFRP barrel because Hawker & Boeing did on the 787 seems emotional.

Airframe makers will select the material that has the most advantages / least disadvantages for its purpose.

CFRP doesn´t have advantages only, although one could start to believe so reading these fora.
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dl767captain
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:23 am

the biggest plane i can see them trying to compete against would be the small to medium sized 737's/A320's. i really doubt Embraer could build a plane so soon that could compete against something the size of the 777. But i think they will probably take over the smaller sections like the 737-600 and the A318 but that is probably the biggest.
 
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:35 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 8):
the biggest plane i can see them trying to compete against would be the small to medium sized 737's/A320's. i really doubt Embraer could build a plane so soon that could compete against something the size of the 777. But i think they will probably take over the smaller sections like the 737-600 and the A318 but that is probably the biggest.

Agree 100%, the next step should be something on 120-180 seats market. At the time they get a share on the market they can even think about going to widebodies.
To produce a narrowbody it's not a big problem with the technical staff they keep, it's another step and IMO it's necessary to remain strong.

The market wants innovation, wants something better, demand is huge for a good product, no matter from Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer or any one else. This is the right time to make such decision.

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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Air

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:37 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 7):
Saying they can´t / won´t be able to use carbon materials is another strange implicit assumption

Arguing the only way to succes is a full CFRP barrel because Hawker & Boeing did on the 787 seems emotional.

Airframe makers will select the material that has the most advantages / least disadvantages for its purpose.

I'm not saying they can't; I'm saying it's much more of a challenge for them than aluminum.

If the 787 lives up to expectations it will be the only way to success for large airliners.

And it is increasingly appearing that that material for large airliners is CFRP, just as 80 years ago it was aluminum in place of wood and fabric.

[Edited 2007-07-16 18:39:28]
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remcor
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:03 am

Do you think it's coincidence that this article also came out today:

Embraer Could Invest in A350
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/07/13/ap3913802.html


I bet they want in on the A350 to gain some composites experience. Smart idea, imo.
 
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:37 am

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 4):
Embraer may just be making noise to help seal a deal with Airbus as rumoured here last week !!!!!!!!!

I hope it never happens. A deal with Airbus will place Embraer in the second tier of airframe makers forever.
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:38 am

Quoting Remcor (Reply 11):
Do you think it's coincidence that this article also came out today:

Not Today its dated the 13/07/07 and it was reprorted on this forum Friday !

It wouldn't be a bad idea for Boeing and Airbus to let Embraer enter in the market for say 130-180 seat aircarft and they build machines from this level to the A350/B787 level. Remember there are a lot of B757/B767/A300/A310's out there that will need replacing. Or partner with them to do just that!!

So perhaps an A360/B797 should let go of the bottom end of acapcity and go from 180 and above with a series that goes up to A350/B787 bottom end.
 
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Air

Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:40 am

So, from emphatic denials that they wouldn't be competing head to head with A and B's smaller models, Embraer is now baring their cards one by one. Technically, that could still be correct if they'd be embarking on a joint venture with one of the two biggest manufacturers. They probably decided that the time is now ripe to be joining the fray, and although one may want to see them stay independent, present realities might dictate that they seek a strategic alliance for the meantime. This bodes well for the health of the industry and would redound to the benefit of all. More power to them. The more the merrier.

[Edited 2007-07-16 19:41:49]
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:53 am

Quoting Remcor (Reply 11):
Do you think it's coincidence that this article also came out today:

Not Today its dated the 13/07/07 and it was reprorted on this forum Friday !

It wouldn't be a bad idea for Boeing and Airbus to let Embraer enter in the market for say 130-180 seat aircarft and they build machines from this level to the A350/B787 level. Remember there are a lot of B757/B767/A300/A310's out there that will need replacing. Or partner with them to do just that!!

So perhaps an A360/B797 should let go of the bottom end of acapcity and go from 180 and above with a series that goes up to A350/B787 bottom end.
 
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Air

Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:54 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 6):

Using CFRP is comparatively new technology, and making fuselage barrels is brand new.

Aside from logistics, what is so hard about barrels compared to panels? Shouldn't they be simpler to make?

[Edited 2007-07-16 19:58:04]
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:14 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 16):

Aside from logistics, what is so hard about barrels compared to panels? Shouldn't they be simpler to make?

My understanding is that the barrels are quite difficult to make, which is why Airbus is reluctant to do it. The mandrel is very complicated and must be very precise. I'm not sure at what stage the process that Boeing got from North Sails is used, but I'm quite sure that Boeing has it locked up so that no other aircraft manufacturer can use it. Much of what Boeing is doing is proprietary and they are not about to let anyone else use their processes. It is a given that it can be done another way, but someone has to figure out how without using Boeing proprietary methods.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:20 am

Boeing and Airbus sells "boatloads" of B-737's and A-320's from 120-200 pax depending on carriers, its a pretty huge product base for both OEM's, I some how find it strange that the belief exist that they will ceede this base to smaller carriers. Admittedly Boeing did not do much with the MD80/90 and its 737-6, and Airbus is still trying with its baby bus, but a huge market exits in the US and many other 3rd World / Developing nations for a/c within the 100-150/200 pax with reasonable cargo, the regional jets within Europe and the US have a place in the business traveller segment of the market, but outside of that, its a sore spot. Even in the US, complaints arise when they are fully substitued for "mainline" a/c.
In the 3rd and Developing Word, who exactly are business travellers, definately not the majority, if you want to make money you need the cargo capacity, and the smaller regional jets presently don't have it. Its easy to say use a dedicated cargo a/c, but if you can get an a/c to do both, why not?
 
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:30 am

To played safe, IMHO, Embraer should 1st try to take as much advantage from its current E170/190 aircraft family before planning on building Boeing / Airbus type aircraft..,
Now Embraer should even try a cargo/combi E190 version and an Ultra Long Range version (something their CM customer could fly PTY-EZE  hyper  ).
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 3:58 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Right side: Frederico Curado

Frederico Curado is second from the right

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 1):
unless they can find a way to use CFRP in this sized market segment, they wont go anywhere fast IMO.

CFRP is overrated. Seriously. For planes in the 120-200 pax market there would probably not be significant weight advantages, there would be significant repairability disadvantages (a lot more ground ops than the widebodies, a lot more stations needing to retool or adapt to CFRP repair) and, most significantly, Embraer does not gain from replacing man-hours with robots. Brazilian man-hours are (relatively) cheap. Robots are expensive.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 9):
To produce a narrowbody it's not a big problem with the technical staff they keep, it's another step and IMO it's necessary to remain strong.

Making a narrowbody is no more difficult than was developing the 170/190 family, from a purely technical point of view. Some aspects would be marginally more challenging (structural issues, for instance), others marginally easier (having enough space to install systems, for instance).

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 14):
So, from emphatic denials that they wouldn't be competing head to head with A and B's smaller models, Embraer is now baring their cards one by one.

I also found this interesting. I see it as a PR reaction to the Boeing statements about including a 100-seater in their 737 replacement. Embraer's position was "we don't want to compete with A/B". Now they are realizing they don't really have that option.
 
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keesje
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 4:31 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 17):
but I'm quite sure that Boeing has it locked up so that no other aircraft manufacturer can use it

Wasn´t much of the barrel technology licenced by Beechcraft Hawker to Boeing? I´m haven´t heard anything on exclusivity.. If Embraer pays for or develops something itself I see no problem. Many specialized subcontractors / engineering bureaus are more then happy to not not only assist Boeing. E.g. Alenia & Spirit are bidding for A350 XWB work.

On Embraer willing to work together with Boeing, who knows maybe something is already in the pipeline..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 5:01 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 21):
Wasn´t much of the barrel technology licenced by Beechcraft Hawker to Boeing? I´m haven´t heard anything on exclusivity.. If Embraer pays for or develops something itself I see no problem. Many specialized subcontractors / engineering bureaus are more then happy to not not only assist Boeing. E.g. Alenia & Spirit are bidding for A350 XWB work.

This is all quite true; however certain key parts (and I don't know which ones) ARE exclusive to Boeing at this point. Even though Alenia & Spirit are bidding on Airbus work they will not be allowed to use Boeing exclusive processes. As I have said many times, this is by no means insurmountable; there is always another way to do things. It just takes time, money, and inspiration to come up with it.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Rbgso
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 5:46 am

Current leadtimes have presented a market opportunity IMHO. How far out is Boeing sold on the 737 and Airbus on the A320? I suspect airlines would consider a competing model from Embraer if the economics work and they could get frames sooner.
 
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keesje
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 5:58 am

Quoting Rbgso (Reply 23):
Current leadtimes have presented a market opportunity IMHO. How far out is Boeing sold on the 737 and Airbus on the A320? I suspect airlines would consider a competing model from Embraer if the economics work and they could get frames sooner.

That might be a consideration indeed. Both Boeing and Airbus are ramping up production but backlogs have piled up even faster, this year being no exemption..

[Edited 2007-07-16 23:00:24]
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:01 am

Quoting Rbgso (Reply 23):
I suspect airlines would consider a competing model from Embraer if the economics work and they could get frames sooner.

It will take Embraer quite a while to design, build, and certify a larger airliner. By that time the situation (i.e. the economy) might be very different and the backlog might disappear. Then again, it might be much longer. It's definitely a crapshoot.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 6:45 am

Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 20):
Brazilian man-hours are (relatively) cheap. Robots are expensive.

I'm curious, what does the average aviation machinist in Brazil make in a year?
 
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 8:51 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 17):
It is a given that it can be done another way, but someone has to figure out how without using Boeing proprietary methods.

Well, considering that like the Delta IV, the Ariane V uses a spun barrel CFRP intertank stage, I'd be surprised if Airbus does not have access to similar, competing proprietary technology. A quick patent search shows patents for both Airbus and Boeing on composite barrel fuselages, and for both on composite panels. Interestingly, Boeing filed their composite panel patent two years AFTER they filed the barrel patent. Airbus has made a business decision to go panels, not a technology decision. That said, if enough airlines pressure them, I wouldn't be surprised to see them change to barrels.
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atmx2000
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:46 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 16):

Aside from logistics, what is so hard about barrels compared to panels? Shouldn't they be simpler to make?



Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 20):
Embraer does not gain from replacing man-hours with robots. Brazilian man-hours are (relatively) cheap. Robots are expensive.

 checkmark 

CFRP is capital intensive and materials are expensive. The robotics likely will have to be sourced from the US, Europe and Japan. CFRP doesn't play to Embraer's advantages.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 21):
Wasn´t much of the barrel technology licenced by Beechcraft Hawker to Boeing? I´m haven´t heard anything on exclusivity.. If Embraer pays for or develops something itself I see no problem. Many specialized subcontractors / engineering bureaus are more then happy to not not only assist Boeing. E.g. Alenia & Spirit are bidding for A350 XWB work.

It's not clear what they are bidding for and what they are offering.
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bigjku
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:10 am

I think it would be a mistake for Embraer to build a plane that explicitly competes with either the 737 replacement or the A320 replacement. You are looking at a very large investment for a company that size. Doing so is going to have several adverse consequences.

First they have to find funding, they are not going to get it as cheap as either Airbus or Boeing if they have to go on the open market and they have already been slapped by the WTO in the past so I think the state financed option might be a bit rough.

Secondly I think any decision to compete against Boeing and Airbus in the middle to upper range on narrow body airplanes will result in Boeing and Airbus being much more likely to adopt a two airplane solution for the narrow body market and go after Embraer's core market where the E-Jets are. While Embraer could probably develop a plane to compete in the larger market I think it would come at the expense of what is currently their core market. Both Boeing and Airbus could build two planes in the low end market at once. Embraer could not.
 
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:15 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 29):
Boeing and Airbus being much more likely to adopt a two airplane solution for the narrow body market and go after Embraer's core market where the E-Jets are.

Speaking regarding both companies: with what airplane?
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:21 am

Quoting Acey (Reply 30):
Speaking regarding both companies: with what airplane?

There has been a lot of talk that the replacements for the 737/A320 could involve 2 airframes with one being more optimized for the smaller market than any of the shrunk versions of the 737/A320 could manage and one being more optimized towards the upper end of the narrow body market.
 
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:51 am

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 31):
There has been a lot of talk that the replacements for the 737/A320 could involve 2 airframes with one being more optimized for the smaller market than any of the shrunk versions of the 737/A320 could manage and one being more optimized towards the upper end of the narrow body market.

Interesting, and undoubtedly the Airbus product will draw from 350 technologies and Boeing's will draw from 787 technologies. Interesting to see what Embraer can come up with here.
If a man hasn't discovered something that he will die for, he isn't fit to live. -- Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
Theoden
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 12:31 pm

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 4):
I don't know if there is really such an advantage using CFRP barrels on smaller aircraft, is the weight difference going to be that much. In the GA market it hasn't really taken off replacing the aluminium construction

Cirrus has sold over 2000 composite aircraft, with the best selling plane in GA for five consecutive years. CFRP seems to be working out for them. Lancair sold its 500th CFRP Columbia last year. Lets not forget the Extra-300. Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic is here to stay.

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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:07 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 7):

CFRP doesn´t have advantages only, although one could start to believe so reading these fora.



Quoting Theoden (Reply 33):
Cirrus has sold over 2000 composite aircraft, with the best selling plane in GA for five consecutive years. CFRP seems to be working out for them. Lancair sold its 500th CFRP Columbia last year. Lets not forget the Extra-300. Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic is here to stay.

One thing to consider, its currently easier with a robot to create the most aerodynamic shape than with aluminum.

I think we're getting to the threshold where CRFP will take over. (Fewer D-checks).

However, it won't play to Embraer's strengths to switch too quickly. So... they probably should do a mixed design.  spin 

Mostly on this thread... I've been reading and absorbing people's ideas and arguments on beer can vs. CFRP.  Wink

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atmx2000
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:29 pm

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 4):
I don't know if there is really such an advantage using CFRP barrels on smaller aircraft, is the weight difference going to be that much.



Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 20):
CFRP is overrated. Seriously. For planes in the 120-200 pax market there would probably not be significant weight advantages,

It's quite likely weight savings won't be as much, and their importance in boosting efficiency will not be as signficant due to the shorter ranges of narrowbodies. However, that doesn't mean other advantages won't exist:

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 34):
One thing to consider, its currently easier with a robot to create the most aerodynamic shape than with aluminum. I think we're getting to the threshold where CRFP will take over. (Fewer D-checks).

It would be interesting if CFRP aircraft have a greater usable lifetime as well.

Also CFRP aircraft like the 787 appear to have a greater MTOW to structural weight ratio, which is part of the reason the 787 can achieve C market range economically. Narrowbody range could get a boost.
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 4:23 pm

I can picture an extremely strong showing from the team down south. I think Boeing and the Airbus consortium will get a huge run for their moeny. Untill now they have filled their own niche at EMB and a decent replacement for the Fokker jets and varients of the DC-9. No doubt they will see their own issues as they have in recent times with the 190 and 170 family but we shall see.
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Rainmaker
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 8:39 pm

Quoting Rbgso (Reply 26):
I'm curious, what does the average aviation machinist in Brazil make in a year?

Somewhere in the range of 20% that of a similar worker at the US or Canada. But let's remember that local blue collar wages make a small portion of an aircraft's total value.

As for the emergence of CFRP in aviation manufacturing, Embraer's board is taking the issue very seriously since it could render its installations obsolete within a few years. A hint at that is that the company should have already launched its 2 new business jets by now but it's holding them until the basic design gets to incorporate CFRP in an extensive level.

Edit: for typos

[Edited 2007-07-17 13:41:06]
 
lowecur
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:15 pm

Unless I'm missing something, Curado is talking about a new engine design as the catalyst for getting into the larger market. Does he really believe that ERJ will have a proprietary foot in the door on these new engines?
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:21 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 21):
Wasn´t much of the barrel technology licenced by Beechcraft Hawker to Boeing? I´m haven´t heard anything on exclusivity..

If there is no exclusivity, then why did Airbus go with panels? I dont buy into the "panels are better" theory one bit. I think there is more to that license than meets the eye. I dont think Boeing would be that stupid to allow another company to come in and use the technology which makes the 787 a game changer.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 25):
It will take Embraer quite a while to design, build, and certify a larger airliner.

Yes it will but if they do so, it could still beat Boeing or Airbus to market since neither one of those companies is working on anything new in the catagory at present. It will be 2015 at the earliest before anything is even close to ready.
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SEPilot
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:45 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 39):
Yes it will but if they do so, it could still beat Boeing or Airbus to market since neither one of those companies is working on anything new in the catagory at present. It will be 2015 at the earliest before anything is even close to ready

I wouldn't be so sure. I'm convinced that Boeing, at least, is doing quite a bit behind the scenes on Y1; they are delaying it while waiting for engines. If Embraer or anyone else mounts a serious challenge I think you'll see Y1 emerge much sooner.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Theoden
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:46 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 39):
If there is no exclusivity, then why did Airbus go with panels? I dont buy into the "panels are better" theory one bit. I think there is more to that license than meets the eye.



Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 27):
Well, considering that like the Delta IV, the Ariane V uses a spun barrel CFRP intertank stage, I'd be surprised if Airbus does not have access to similar, competing proprietary technology. A quick patent search shows patents for both Airbus and Boeing on composite barrel fuselages, and for both on composite panels. Interestingly, Boeing filed their composite panel patent two years AFTER they filed the barrel patent.

Of course, even if it is true that Airbus chose panels when they could have done barrels, it doesn't mean that Embraer has a patent for either. Even if they find a way around the patents, It will take some time to develop the technology.

Theoden
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slider
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:47 pm

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 4):

I don't know if there is really such an advantage using CFRP barrels on smaller aircraft, is the weight difference going to be that much. In the GA market it hasn't really taken off replacing the aluminium construction, one has to ask why?

Two reasons:

1) Cost:
Obviously, keeping GA affordable, or reasonably so, is a major goal. The performance benefit of CFRP isn't really enough to justify the cost. GA doesn't typically lead the way in technology anyhow, they follow.

2) Production capability:
Cessna doesn't have the chops to do composites on a scale that economically justifies the investment.

I don't think GA in general is a valid comparison or indicator to benchmark against in this regard.
 
Theoden
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:58 pm

Quoting Slider (Reply 42):
Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 4):

I don't know if there is really such an advantage using CFRP barrels on smaller aircraft, is the weight difference going to be that much. In the GA market it hasn't really taken off replacing the aluminium construction, one has to ask why?

Two reasons:

1) Cost:
Obviously, keeping GA affordable, or reasonably so, is a major goal. The performance benefit of CFRP isn't really enough to justify the cost. GA doesn't typically lead the way in technology anyhow, they follow.

2) Production capability:
Cessna doesn't have the chops to do composites on a scale that economically justifies the investment.



[quote=Theoden,reply=33]Cirrus has sold over 2000 composite aircraft, with the best selling plane in GA for five consecutive years. CFRP seems to be working out for them. Lancair sold its 500th CFRP Columbia last year. Lets not forget the Extra-300. Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic is here to stay.

I should also point out that Cessna is working on an all new line of GA aircraft that will use CFRP in primary structures. CFRP is the wave of now. If it can save weight on a 4 seat plane and a 250 seat plane, why can it not save weight on a 150 seat plane?
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SEPilot
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:00 pm

Quoting Slider (Reply 42):

I don't think GA in general is a valid comparison or indicator to benchmark against in this regard.

When you consider that most GA manufacturers operate on very slim margins and sell comparatively few aircraft, there just isn't the money for R & D available. If there was, the Cessna line, which has its origin in the 50's and its latest version in production debuted in the 60's would not be selling. Granted, Cirrus and Columbia are new designs, but they had their origins as kitplanes. Most of the rest of the piston engined GA planes that are selling today were designed in the 50's or 60's (Bonanza, Mooney, Piper).
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
dougbr2006
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:04 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 21):
On Embraer willing to work together with Boeing, who knows maybe something is already in the pipeline..

I would think it more probable for them to team with Airbus, as indications are that they have already been talking.

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 29):
Both Boeing and Airbus could build two planes in the low end market at once. Embraer could not.

Why not, they currently build four variants of the EMB170-190 along with developing the Phenom business jets for which thay have sold hundreds and they are also in process of a military/cargo aircraft, two more new business jets models and they need to fill the ERJ spot with a replacement so why not go bigger, the ERJ market is all but dead. The business jets line will probably be in Gavião Peixoto and ERJ production will probably all be in China if they sell any more that is. São Jose dos Campos will probably be only EMB170-190, Project XXX in the near future.
 
mrocktor
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 10:47 pm

Quoting Rbgso (Reply 26):
I'm curious, what does the average aviation machinist in Brazil make in a year?

Something in the range of 10,000 to 15,000 dollars.

Quoting Theoden (Reply 33):
Cirrus has sold over 2000 composite aircraft, with the best selling plane in GA for five consecutive years.

You are right, and you completely miss the point. Highly complex shapes such as the Cirrus' highly favor laminated composites. Somple shapes like airliner fuselages don't. Making an aluminum Cirrus would be hell, making an aluminum cylinder is simple.
 
aminobwana
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:22 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 3):
This is further incentive for Boeing to do Y1 sooner rather than later. I do not think Embraer is ready to do CFRP barrels, and if Boeing wants to keep the market a duopoly then they need to raise the bar. If they stay aluminum Embraer, Bombardier, or the Chinese can jump in and be competitive. It will be much harder for a newcomer to go CFRP, especially barrels.

Independently from the barrel issue. There is no doubt the Embraer and other will (and already began to do so) invade the single aisle market. But the same reason you rightly state that Boeing shut address the Y1 soon, aplies much more for AIRBUS, as Boeing has the twin-aisle market and could afford a market loss at single aisle, but Airbus certainly cannot do so.
Therefore AIRBUS should address the A320NG or XX immediately, and if funds do not allow to do it without slowing the A350, so let it be !!

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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:26 pm

The problem with narrow-bodies according to some people I know is that CFRP barrels are tougher to make in the small double-bubble shapes that those planes need. May not be tougher, but def. more expensive.

I believe Embrarer will enter this market as will the Chinese!

And if you are to believe McNerney (and I guess one should) he says the biggest impediment to a next-gen narrow-body is engine tech. And the engine duopoly in the narrow-body segment has meant that not much fundamental research has gone into engine tech for smaller planes with the A380 and 787 diverting all GE and RR resources. I know GEAE is developing next-gen engine tech for narrow-bodies at the Jack Welsh Centre in Bangalore, but if you ask me the engine market could also do with a bit of competition.
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SEPilot
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RE: Embraer Considering Jets To Rival Boeing & Airbus

Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:43 pm

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 47):
But the same reason you rightly state that Boeing shut address the Y1 soon, aplies much more for AIRBUS, as Boeing has the twin-aisle market and could afford a market loss at single aisle, but Airbus certainly cannot do so.

You're right, of course. My Boeing partisanship is showing.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler

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