|Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 137):|
Not necessarily so. Look at the top down picture in Reply 121, there is a lot more open ground going straight ahead or veering slightly right. Yes, more potential ground casualties but also a *significant* potential of saving the pax - even if he clipped the pillars.
You're the one who's supposed to be more familiar with the area than I am... *grin*
In the case of PK
-GZC in March, according to flight data excerpts, the aircraft left the runway at 60kts and went on for 210m beyond the paved surface (over flat ground for 90m, then fell onto a road 18m wide, slammed into the embankment on the other side, and still went on for another 100m).
In the case of this 320 crash, it's about 100m from the place where it left the paved surface, free falling onto the building. The building contained the impact from going forward beyond it. Had it gone straight, it would hit the pylons 90m beyond th paved runway, freefalling onto it... Btw, what are those pillars made off? If it's concrete, hitting that you'd have more an impact into a structure, yet one where the breakup cannot be contained. There's a good chance wreckage would be spread mainly within a 100m radius from there... and burning... and some pieces could go for another 100m beyond... this is of course, assuming this aircraft went off and about 60kts... Whatever part travelled 200m beyond the pylons would not have much building impact (about 150m beyond the pylons), but it would be a messy scene indeed and if the road was packed, it could yield more deaths on the road and the airborne impact onto the pylon would have killed most of those on board...
The worst scenario in this case if it went between it's actual path and the pylon... 100m after leaving the taxiway, it would land in the middle of that road... Avenida Washington Luis... 100m from that, is more buildings... There's a large chance that it would have killed more if the road was packed.
I stand corrected however, in that seeing the google images, that had they gone right of the centerline, if the aircraft failed to cross Via Accesso Congonhas, the impact would have been largely contained by the road which was elevated above the immediately preceeding terrain. It could have had less ground casualty. However, if it crossed that road and broke up, the aircraft would not go beyond the bridge at Washington Luis, on the open ground. This would be the lowest casualty scenario. Unfortunately, we don't know whether veering right would have saved or cost more lives at the moment as we don't know the "speed of departure" from the last paved surface at the airport. If it was (significantly) faster than 60kts, then the actual situation fortunately, would appear to have been the least casualty scenario...
But then, if it was that slippery, and #2 reverser was INOP, left was inevitable
At least for the time being, these "what ifs" and the discussions here would comfort us in trying to find answers, instead of sitting in front of the TV
I hope the blackboxes will yield quick information for the investigators... The victims deserves a proper investigation into what caused them to depart from our world!